The role of risk avoidance and locus of control in workers’ near miss experiences: Implications for improving safety management systems

The process industry has made major advancements and is a leader in near-miss safety management, with several validated models and databases to track close call reports. However, organizational efforts to develop safe work procedures and rules do not guarantee that employees will behaviorally comply with them. Assuming that at some point, every safety management system will need to be examined and realigned to help prevent incidents on the job, it is important to understand how personality traits can impact workers' risk-based decisions. Such work has been done in the mining industry due to its characteristically high risks and the results can be gleaned to help the process industry realign goals and values with their workforce. In the current study, researchers cross-sectionally surveyed 1,334 miners from 20 mine sites across the United States, varying in size and commodity. The survey sought to understand how mineworkers' risk avoidance could impact their near miss incidents on the job – a common precursor to lost-time incidents. Multiple regressions showed that as a miner's level of risk avoidance increased by 1 unit in the 6-point response scale, the probability of experiencing a near miss significantly decreased by 30% when adjusting for relevant control variables. Additionally, a significant interaction between risk avoidance and locus of control suggested that the effect of risk avoidance on near misses is enhanced as a miner's locus of control increases. A one-unit increase in locus of control appends the base effect of risk avoidance on near misses with an additional 8% decrease in the probability. Findings are discussed from a near-miss safety management system perspective in terms of methods to foster both risk avoidance and locus of control in an effort to reduce the probability of near misses and lost time at the organizational level within the process industry and other high-hazard industries.     

The digital representation of safety systems at “Seveso” plants and its potential for improving risk management

At Seveso plants, duty holders must have a complex system for assessing and managing risks. The pillars of this system are the safety report and the safety management system, with a number of underlying documents. The strength of the system is the high standardization of these documents. Regulations, standard codes and guidelines define content, structure and formats. The weakness is the high complexity. Managers and workers perceive documents as difficult to understand and far from actual operations. Major threats for the credibility of documents (and therefore for the safety systems) come from the continuous organizational and technical changes, which in a short time can make most documents obsolete; as well as by near misses, which continuously show the holes in safety systems. A big effort is required to follow up the plant changes and the near misses. In order to help safety managers, a new software has been developed. At Seveso plants, it has been possible build an integrated digital representation, because all documents are perfectly structured. This representation may be used both for updating the relevant documents after a change and to improve documents after a near miss or an accident. In this way, safety documents are always up to date and trustworthy and the huge knowledge, which is usually hidden inside safety documents, is clearly revealed and revived. The approach is basically “knowledge based” and the intention is to provide safety managers with an easy and simple tool. IRISonLine is a software that has been developed by ISPESL to provide safety managers of “Seveso” establishments with a tool for improving the management of change and of near misses.     

The importance of near miss reporting to further improve safety performance

Dealing with accidents implies that such events have in common the potential to affect people and the environment in a significant way. Therefore, all parties involved in industrial risk management processes, i.e. industry, regulatory authorities, public as well as scientific and technical institutions, are well aware of the importance of considering and analysing such type of events for the purposes of accident prevention. Also, the methods of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) have large experience in numerically expressing the various degrees of risk related to accidents. On the other hand, the topic of including `near misses' (i.e. any event which could have escalated to an accident) in safety management systems with the aim to prevent major accidents and the occurrence of similar events in the future is relatively new. Although its importance has more and more been recognised in the last few years, it is not yet a commonly accepted fact that near miss reporting and investigation of near misses should be an integral part of a safety management system in industrial facilities. In the European Council's new `Seveso II Directive' 96/82/EC, there is—in addition to the mandatory requirements of major accident reporting—an explicit recommendation to report near misses to the Commission's Major Accident Reporting System (MARS) on a voluntary basis. In this paper, examples of current experience in the chemical industry with the collection and analysis of data on near misses are presented and discussed with regard to industry-wide conclusions. In addition to this more qualitative discussion, quantitative arguments are put forward regarding the impact of near misses on risk estimates derived from QRA.     

Development of a database for accidents and incidents in the Greek petrochemical industry

The present paper describes the development of a database that comprises all incidents from the Greek petrochemical industry for the period 1997–2003. This database includes industrial incidents, accidents, operational accidents and near misses from all petrochemical sites in Greece and Cyprus. The design of the database has been conceived in a user-friendly way with additional possibilities for its further use, such as: statistical analysis of the data, calculation of safety indicators, accident reports and human factors analysis. The database allows the various participating industries to compare the analysis of indicators in their own installations with the national average, as the database comprises data from the entire Greek petrochemical industry. Special care has been given to include data from near misses too.     

Between a rock and a hard place: Accident and near-miss reporting on offshore service vessels

Reporting accidents and near misses is an important aspect of safety management. This study explores reporting in contract work, exemplified by offshore service vessels, and the associations with external and internal organisational factors. The empirical foundation for the study is a questionnaire survey (N = 1108). Reporting was negatively related to high efficiency demands from external actors and low quality of feedback to the reporting community. These factors were more strongly related to reporting than internal factors within the safety climate construct. Short-term contract engagement was also negatively associated with reporting. The results could reflect the organisational complexity that characterises much contract work. The study implies that attempts to increase the level of reporting in contract work should not be limited to focusing on internal organisational factors. Framework conditions and signals from external actors regarding the actual priority accorded to safety should also be considered.     

Site managers and safety leadership in the offshore oil and gas industry

Management commitment to safety is recognised as a fundamental component of an organisation's safety culture (Reason, 1997. Managing the Risks of Organisational Accidents. Ashgate, Aldershot, UK). However, the role and experiences of site managers in relation to safety have rarely been examined. A survey questionnaire was conducted of 200 Offshore Installation Managers (OIMs) from 157 offshore oil and gas installations belonging to 36 organisations operating on the United Kingdom Continental Shelf. The questionnaire gathered data relating to OIMs' level of experience and style of leadership as well as their knowledge and experience of safety and leadership within the industry. The aims of the study are twofold. The first aim is to investigate the relationship between managers' level of experience and style of leadership with their safety attitudes and behaviour. The second aim is to investigate managers' perceptions of best practice in safety leadership and their beliefs about the key outstanding safety issues. Findings suggest that experience is not the dominant factor in determining leadership style or attitudes to safety, however, the less experienced OIMs and those with more directive styles of leadership were found to overestimate their ability to influence and motivate the workforce. It seems that although managers are aware of best practice in safety leadership, they do not always act in ways consistent with this. They report having considerable difficulty in motivating and controlling some safety crucial aspects of workforce behaviour such as getting workers to accept ownership of safety and getting workers to report near misses. In terms of outstanding safety issues, it appears that improvements still need to be made in a number of areas such as the standardisation of safety culture; the harmonisation of safety practices and procedures across the industry; improved workforce competency and increased workforce involvement in safety activities and decision making.     

Lagging or leading? Exploring the temporal relationship among lagging indicators in mining establishments 2006–2017

Problem: Safety management literature generally categorizes key performance indicators (KPIs) as either leading or lagging. Traditional lagging indicators are measures related to negative safety incidents, such as injuries, while leading indicators are used to predict (and therefore can be used to prevent) the likelihood of future negative safety incidents. Recent theory suggests that traditional lagging indicators also possess characteristics of leading indicators, and vice versa, however empirical evidence is limited. Method: The current research investigated the temporal relationships among establishment-level injuries, near misses, and fatal events using injury and employment data from a sample of 24,910 mining establishments over a 12-year period. Results: While controlling for employee hours worked, establishment-level reported injuries and near misses were associated with of future fatal events across the sample of mines and over the time period studied. Fatal events were also associated with increases in future reported near misses, providing evidence of a cyclic relationship between them. Discussion: These findings challenge the strict categorization of injuries, near misses, and fatal events as lagging indicators. Practical applications: Understanding the KPIs that should be used to manage organizational safety, and how they can be used, is of critical practical importance. The results of the current study suggest that, depending on several considerations, metrics tied to negative safety incidents may be used to anticipate, and possibly prevent, future negative safety events.     

Accident precursors and near misses on construction sites: An investigative tool to derive information from accident databases

Safety problems on construction sites seem to be largely unresolved as the fatality and injury records in construction continue to plague the industry across the world. The lack of an effective system to interrupt and prevent the precursors and contributory factors on construction sites is argued to be the critical deficiency of extant research and practice. This paper covers research to develop a systematic mechanism to interrupt and prevent precursors and immediate factors (PaIFs) on construction sites. First, the importance of precursors and near misses to further improve safety margins are emphasized. Furthermore, a systematic model of improving safety on construction sites is presented to consummate and perfect extant safety-improving systems on construction sites by reinforcing and accentuating the real-time tracking of precursors and immediate factors. The real-time tracking sub-system is argued to be an effective measure to interrupt and prevent PaIFs. Eventually, an investigative model of PaIFs on construction sites is proposed, indicating how to seek PaIFs from historical accident records and how to obtain near misses and mitigating measures from reported events. Results indicate that model of PaIFs is effective and able to acquire as much information as possible about precursors and near misses and thus, in part, overcome the deficiency of lacking sufficient and adequate historical accident records. This study proposes a feasible approach to facilitate acquiring more useful information from historical records of accidents in order to improve safety on construction sites and serve as a foundation for further study by drawing researchers’ attention to precursors and near misses.     

Exploring the perceived influence of safety management practices on project performance in the construction industry

Although safety management is known to be vital to construction projects, very few studies have solicited views from construction practitioners about their perceptions of which safety management practices (SMPs) are important to construction projects and related to project performance. An empirical study was undertaken in Hong Kong in order to shed more light on this topic. In the study, the importance levels of 15 popular SMPs and five project performance criteria were rated by 232 respondents. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted, and three SMP categories - information, process, and committees - were extracted. Of these three categories, safety management process was perceived by the construction practitioners as being the most important, followed by safety management information and committees. Moreover, the effect of the three SMP categories on a composite project performance variable was tested using hierarchical regression analysis. Results indicate that the “information” and “committees” categories were associated with project performance positively and significantly. One of the major conclusions of the study is that the construction industry has paid relatively less attention to safety management committees, which were empirically analyzed as having a strong perceived impact on project performance. In order to improve project performance, construction companies should promote the criticality of safety management committees.     

Risk assessment of chemical process considering dynamic probability of near misses based on Bayesian theory and event tree analysis

With the development of modern automatic control systems, chemical accidents are of low frequency in most chemical plants, but once an accident happens, it often causes serious consequences. Near-misses are the precursor of accidents. As the process progresses, near misses caused by abnormal fluctuation of process variables may eventually lead to accidents. However, variables that may lead to serious consequences in the production process cannot update the risk in the life cycle of the process by traditional risk assessment methods, which do not pay enough attention to the near misses. Therefore, this paper proposed a new method based on Bayesian theory to dynamically update the probability of key variables associated with process failure risk and obtain the risk change of the near-misses. This article outlines the proposed approach and uses a chemical process of styrene production to demonstrate the application. In this chemical process, the key variables include flow rate, liquid level, pressure and temperature. In order to study the dynamic risk of the chemical process with consideration of near misses, according to the accumulated data of process variables, firstly the abnormal probability of the variables and the failure rate of safety systems associated with the variables were updated with time based on Bayesian theory. On the basis of the dynamic probability of key process variables, an event tree of possible consequences caused by variable anomalies was established. From the logical relationship of the event tree, the probability of different consequences can be obtained. The results show that the proposed risk assessment method based on Bayesian theory can overcome the shortcomings of traditional analysis methods. It shows the dynamic characteristics of the probability of different near misses, and achieves the dynamic risk analysis of chemical process accidents.     

Dynamic accident modeling for high-sulfur natural gas gathering station

Dynamic accident modeling for a gas gathering station is implemented to prevent high-sulfur natural gas leakage and develop equipment inspection strategy. The progress of abnormal event occurring in the gas gathering station is modeled by the combination of fault tree and event sequence diagram, based on accident causal chain theory, i.e. the progress is depicted as sequential failure of safety barriers, then, the occurrence probability of the consequence of abnormal event is predicted. Consequences of abnormal events are divided into accidents and accident precursors which include incidents, near misses and so on. The Bayesian theory updates failure probability of safety barrier when a new observation (i.e. accident precursors or accidents data) arrives. Bayesian network then correspondingly updates failure probabilities of basic events of the safety barriers with the ability of abductive reasoning. Consequence occurrence probability is also updated. The results show that occurrence probability trend of different consequences and failure probability trend of safety barriers and basic events of the safety barriers can be obtained using this method. In addition, the critical basic events which play an important role in accidents occurrence are also identified. All of these provide useful information for the maintenance and inspection of the gas gathering station.     

Modelling of BP Texas City refinery accident using dynamic risk assessment approach

Process industries involve handling of hazardous substances which on release may potentially cause catastrophic consequences in terms of assets lost, human fatalities or injuries and loss of public confidence of the company. In spite of using endless end-of-the-pipe safety systems, tragic accidents such as BP Texas City refinery still occur. One of the main reasons of such rare but catastrophic events is lack of effective monitoring and modelling approaches that provide early warnings and help to prevent such event. To develop a predictive model one has to rely on past occurrence data, as such events are rare, enough data are usually not available to better understand and model such behavior. In such situations, it is advisable to use near misses and incident data to predict system performance and estimate accident likelihood. This paper is an attempt to demonstrate testing and validation of one such approach, dynamic risk assessment, using data from the BP Texas City refinery incident.Dynamic risk assessment is a novel approach which integrates Bayesian failure updating mechanism with the consequence assessment. The implementation of this methodology to the BP Texas City incident proves that the approach has the ability to learn from near misses, incident, past accidents and predict event occurrence likelihood in the next time interval.     

The effect of aviation safety education on passenger cabin safety awareness

This paper examines the effect of aviation safety education on passenger cabin safety awareness in knowledge, attitude, and behavior (KAB). The educational value of KAB has been addressed in various fields such as AIDS prevention and campus safety. KAB has been applied in aviation safety related areas, especially in training, such as crew resource management training, pilot training, and mechanic training. However, KAB has not been implemented in aviation passenger education in cabin safety. This paper uses the construct of “aviation safety education”, which is intended to influence airline passenger knowledge of, attitude toward, and behavior about cabin safety awareness. Passenger surveys were done at two Taiwan airports. The results show that aviation safety education positively affects airline passenger cabin safety knowledge, attitude, and behavior. We recommend safety education that involves accurate instruction about emergency equipment procedures, situational awareness, emergency responses, and relevant cabin-safety regulations.Our findings indicated that an increase in cabin safety knowledge positively affected airline passenger behavior, which supported knowledge–behavior consistency. We also found that a positive attitude toward cabin safety positively affected airline passenger behavior, which supported attitude–behavior consistency. The hypothesis that cabin safety knowledge positively affected passenger attitude – knowledge–attitude consistency was not supported.     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

Actual safety performance of the Malaysian offshore oil platforms: Correlations between the leading and lagging indicators

IntroductionThis study establishes the correlations between performance of a set of key safety factors and the actual lagging performance of oil platforms in Malaysia, hence the relevance of the key safety factors in evaluating and predicting the safety performance of oil and gas platforms. The key factors are crucial components of a safety performance evaluation framework and each key safety factor corresponds to a list of underlying safety indicators.MethodIn this study, participating industrial practitioners rated the compliance status of each indicator using a numbering system adapted from the traffic light system, based on the actual performance of 10 oil platforms in Malaysia. Safety scores of the platforms were calculated based on the ratings and compared with the actual lagging performance of the platforms. Safety scores of two platforms were compared with the facility status reports' findings of the respective platforms.ResultsThe platforms studied generally had good performance. Total recordable incident rates of the platforms were found to show significant negative correlations with management and work engagement on safety, compliance score for number of incident and near misses, personal safety, and management of change. Lost time injury rates, however, correlated negatively with hazard identification and risk assessment. The safety scores generally agreed with findings of the facility status reports with substandard process containment found as a contributor of hydrocarbon leaks.ConclusionsThis study proves the criterion validity of the safety performance evaluation framework and demonstrates its usability for benchmarking and continuous improvement of safety practices on the Malaysian offshore oil and gas platforms.Practical applicationsThis study reveals the applicability of the framework and the potential of extending safety reporting beyond the few conventional lagging safety performance indicators used. The study also highlights the synergy between correlating safety factors to streamline safety management on offshore platforms.     

Operator-centred local error management in air traffic control

Introduction: A large number of air traffic control occurrences take place without resulting in loss of separation between aircraft. Unfortunately such occurrences are seldom reported and therefore not used for disclosing system weaknesses, such as inappropriate methods and procedures.The ATCC (Air Traffic Control Centre) Malmoe made a trial with local reporting of “learning occurrences”. The trial was ATCO-(Air Traffic Controller) centred. The study objectives were to evaluate if ATCOs would start to report after a defined training and marketing effort, if they could identify system weaknesses, if concrete actions for safety improvement would be taken as a result of the trial and to what extent expert support was necessary.Method and material: The trial period was eight months. The ATCO report would be made on a simple form, available on site. These reports would then be analysed in groups and the marketing and feedback efforts would be co-ordinated by the local flight safety group.Results: 43 reports were filed and analysed during the trial period. The initial motivational training and marketing was considered adequate. During the group discussions, the ATCOs identified system weaknesses within 40 of the reports. The resulting safety improvement actions included: the ATCC unit becoming more active in contacting the pilots and airline companies, the renaming of some waypoints (due to name similarities), the implementation of safer procedures when relieving ATCOs, the training of ATCOs in cockpit flight management systems, and the initiation of a research project primarily concerned with ATCO mental overload.Expert support was required in the beginning to help ATCOs focus on the system rather than on the individual.     

Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

To ensure the safety of a process system, engineers use different methods to identify the potential hazards that may cause severe consequences. One of the most popular methods used is quantitative risk assessment (QRA) which quantifies the risk associated with a particular process activity. One of QRA's major disadvantages is its inability to update risk during the life of a process. As the process operates, abnormal events will result in incidents and near misses. These events are often called accident precursors. A conventional QRA process is unable to use the accident precursor information to revise the risk profile. To overcome this, a methodology has been proposed based on the work of Meel and Seider (2006). Similar to Meel and Seider (2006) work, this methodology uses Bayesian theory to update the likelihood of the event occurrence and also failure probability of the safety system. In this paper the proposed methodology is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study. First, potential accident scenarios are identified and represented in terms of an event tree, next, using the event tree and available failure data end-state probabilities are estimated. Subsequently, using the available accident precursor data, safety system failure likelihood and event tree end-state probabilities are revised. The methodology has been simulated using deterministic (point value) as well as probabilistic approach. This Methodology is applied to a case study demonstrating a storage tank containing highly hazardous chemicals. The comparison between conventional QRA and the results from dynamic failure assessment approach shows the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.     

控制论在煤矿安全管理中的应用研究

在对近几年我国煤矿死亡事故及安全管理现状分析的基础上,采用安全管理与控制论相结合的方法,提出煤矿安全管理封闭模式,建立煤矿安全管理反馈式信息控制系统模型和煤矿企业安全信息管理系统模型。指出建立并保证信息反馈系统的健全畅通,是我国煤矿安全管理工作的重点。     

Loss Prevention Programmes of the Hazardous Work Place Review and Inspection Act of Taiwan

Loss prevention programmes for the Hazardous Work Place Review and Inspection Act have been enforced in Taiwan since 1994. Essentially, the objective was to minimize occupational incidents and enhance work efficiency by strict inspection and stringent evaluation with cautious safety management. However, effective implementation of such a programme requires a consideration of the effect of this system and the perception and attitude of the employees. A survey was employed to quantify the safety achievements that resulted from executing the programme specified in the Hazardous Work Place Review and Inspection Act, along with a study to assess the programme's applicability. The information is intended to serve as a valuable reference for industries to actively improve loss prevention by using an inherently safer approach. This study was the first completed in Taiwan since the programme was launched in 1994. The data illustrated which elements of the programme could significantly alleviate occupational incidents and near misses. Effect analysis of more than 80% of the interviewed companies confirmed that the system is not only practical but also useful for promoting safety, if the programme is carried out appropriately.     

Increasing completion of accident reports

Complete accident reports are important for diagnosing and ameliorating safety problems and for evaluating the effectiveness of intervention programs. Often, however, these reports are found to lack vital information. Baseline data at a paper mill revealed that accident reports generally failed to supply all requested information. In an effort to improve the situation, instructions and feedback notes were sent to personnel soon after they submitted their reports. These commented on the number of items completed, improvements over previous submissions, and other meritorious features. To evaluate the impact of the intervention, the feedback was withdrawn after 7 weeks and then reinstated. Following termination of feedback, completeness of reports continued to be monitored for about a year. It was found that reporting performance improved under feedback and deteriorated when it was withdrawn. These findings suggest that a simple feedback note can effectively contribute toward solving the problem of incomplete accident reports.