Climate change decision-support and the tolerable windows approach

The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) to Integrated Assessments (IA) of global warming is based on external normative specifications of tolerable sets of climate impacts as well as proposed emission quotas and policy instruments for implementation. In a subsequent step, the complete set of admissible climate protection strategies which are compatible with these normative inputs is determined by scientific analysis. In doing so, minimum requirements concerning global and national greenhouse gas emission paths can be determined. In this paper we present the basic methodological elements of TWA, discuss its relation to more conventional approaches to IA like cost–benefit analyses, and present some preliminary results obtained by a reduced-form climate model.     

Climate change vulnerability in a tropical region based on environmental and socio-economic factors

The understanding of the regional and local dimensions of vulnerability due to climate change is essential to develop appropriate and targeted adaptation efforts. We assessed the local dimensions of vulnerability in the tropical state of Kerala, India, using a purposely developed vulnerability index, which accounts for both environmental and socio-economic factors. The large extents of coastal wetlands and lagoons and high concentration of mangrove forests make the state environmentally vulnerable. Low human development index, large population of socially deprived groups, which are dependent on the primary sector, and high population density make the state vulnerable from a socio-economic point of view. The present study investigates climate change vulnerability at the district level in the State of Kerala relying on a purposely developed composite vulnerability index that encompasses both socio-economic and environmental factors. The Kerala coast contains the socio-economically and ecologically most vulnerable regions, as demonstrated by a composite vulnerability index.     

Climate change, urban air problems and transport policy in the European Union

This paper surveys some recent studies on conventional air pollution and climate change in the transport sector in Europe. Fuel efficiency standards, car emission standards and transport pricing instruments are analysed from an economic perspective taking into account environmental and economic efficiency objectives. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate change drives warming in the Hudson River Estuary, New York (USA)

Estuaries may be subject to warming due to global climate change but few studies have considered the drivers or seasonality of warming empirically. We analyzed temperature trends and rates of temperature change over time for the Hudson River estuary using long-term data, mainly from daily measures taken at the Poughkeepsie Water Treatment Facility. This temperature record is among the longest in the world for a river or estuary. The Hudson River has warmed 0.945 °C since 1946. Many of the warmest years in the record occurred in the last 16 years. A seasonal analysis of trends indicated significant warming for the months of April through August. The warming of the Hudson is primarily related to increasing air temperature. Increasing freshwater discharge into the estuary has not mitigated the warming trend.     

Climate change impact on the olive pollen season in Mediterranean areas of Italy: air quality in late spring from an allergenic point of view

Recent studies have shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens, and thus on allergic diseases in humans. In the Mediterranean region, despite the importance of the olive tree for production, there is high allergenicity of olive pollen and related risks to human health. Aerobiological sampling techniques can be used to analyse the pollinosis phenomenon through determination of mean daily pollen concentrations per cubic metre of air. The present study was carried out from 1999 to 2008 in 16 olive-growing areas in Italy, to update the information on the pollinosis characteristics of Olea europaea in the study areas. The analysis of the average flowering season over the study period highlights a temporal scaling of pollen in the atmosphere that depends on the different climatic characteristics. This is mainly dependent on temperature, and in part, determined by latitude. Generally, the levels of O. europaea pollen in the atmosphere are higher from mid-April to the end of June, with the period of greatest risk to human health due to this olive pollen in this area currently limited primarily to the last 10 days of May. However, the pollen season can move, depending on the climate scenario considered, and data here can be used to determine potential time shifts in pollinosis that might cause more precocious asthma and allergy problems. The allergy season for this type of pollen might be significantly precocious in future decades (20–30 days earlier in the year), which will impact on the severity and duration of allergies attributable to olive tree pollen.     

Impact of Climate Change on Date Production in Tunisia

Around the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one of the major phenomena affecting agriculture. Therefore, the mode of production and crop management will have to change radically. Our objective in this article is to examine the long-run effects of climate change on date production in Tunisia using panel cointegration covering the period from 1980 to 2014 in 24 regions. The climate of Tunisia differs in our study because we find a Saharan climate in the south and a European climate in the north. The central regions are characterized by a Mediterranean climate. Our empirical results show that the effects of climate and weather variability on date production must be considered a serious threat in Tunisia. In addition, we estimate relatively negative and variable long-run effects of temperature increase and rainfall shortages across regions on date output over the last three decades.     

Determination of aluminum and zinc in Iranian consumed tea

To determine aluminum and zinc in Iranian consumed tea, 31 tea samples were analysed for Al and Zn concentration of tea leaves and tea infusion. The results show that average concentration of Al and Zn in tea leaves was 326 and 50.7 mg. Kg(-1) respectively in this regard Nemoneh and Shahrzad show the highest and lowest concentration respectively in term of Al, also Debsh and Alkozi follow same situation in Zn concentration. Also the solubility of metals in the first infusion was significantly (Al, Zn: P < 0.01) higher than the second infusion and the solubility in the second infusion was also significantly higher than the third infusion (Al: P < 0.01; Zn: P < 0.05). Al leachate in the first infusion (2 min) for Mosama and Seilan tea was highest and lowest respectively. Also in the second and third infusion (5 and 10 min) Golkis and Nemoneh tea show the highest and lowest figures respectively. On the other hand, data from Zn transfer in tea infusion in the first infusion show that Mosama and Ahmad Atry tea have the highest and lowest leachate percentage respectively, while in the second and third infusion Mosama and Golkis tea follow the same situation. Calculation of percentage 'available' Al and Zn to the human system showed that 1 l of tea can provide 37.2% of the daily dietary intake of Al, the percentage 'available' for absorption in the intestine is only 1.78% for overall mean Al concentration. Also daily dietary intake of Zn was 2.13% while percentage available for absorption in the intestine was 0.72%.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Mammal Diversity in Canada

Current large-scale mammalian diversity patterns in Canada can be accurately explained using various measurements of heat energy. Unfortunately, climatic change is predicted to alter the fundamental climatic basis for contemporary diversity gradients, with the expected consequence that much of the Canadian biota will need to migrate in order to remain within climatically suitable regions. We make predictions regarding future mammal diversity patterns in Canada, and therefore provide a preliminary indication of where management intervention should be directed in order to conserve mammal diversity as climate changes. We also examine the current distributions of individual mammal species in Canada in order to determine which taxa cannot migrate farther north because of the Arctic Ocean barrier. Of the 25 species that fall into this category, we examine the predicted loss of habitat in one keystone species – Dicrostonyx groenlandicus, the collared lemming – and find that this taxon is likely to lose approximately 60% of its habitat with unpredictable but likely detrimental consequences for the arctic biota. We discuss the implications of our findings briefly.     

Spatial analysis and facility characteristics of outdoor recreational areas in Istanbul

This article reports the results of a study that explored whether outdoor recreational areas are sufficient in Istanbul in terms of their surface area and facility characteristics. All the municipalities in 32 subprovinces of Istanbul were sent a survey in 2007 and asked to prepare a list of their outdoor recreational areas including their names, addresses, size, and facilities. All the data collected from the municipalities were used to create a GIS-based inventory by using GIS and remote sensing. As the study revealed, the outdoor recreational areas in Istanbul are far behind meeting the recreational needs of the residents in terms of area per person and facility characteristics. There are 2,470 areas which were dedicated to outdoor recreational activities in Istanbul. Total surface area of all these outdoor recreational areas is 19,2 sq kilometers; this means 1.52 m² recreational area per person in the city. This value is very low when compared to that of many cities in Europe and USA. As the study also revealed, the majority of outdoor recreational areas in Istanbul are poor in facility. Majority of the existing outdoor recreational areas are small and do not provide the public with many opportunities to engage in different outdoor activities. A more sustainable and efficient recreational plan is needed in Istanbul to meet the various recreational needs of its residents.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa

The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.     

Indoor and outdoor formaldehyde concentrations in homes in residential areas in Greater Cairo

Indoor and outdoor measurements of formaldehyde were conducted at seven flats located in residential areas in Greater Cairo, during spring and summer seasons 1999. The mean daytime formaldehyde concentrations in kitchens, bedrooms and living rooms were 89, 100 and 100 ppb, respectively, in the seven flats. Significant positive correlations were found between the concentrations of formaldehyde found in these three rooms. On the other hand, no significant differences were found between the mean formaldehyde concentrations in these three rooms. The maximum mean concentration of formaldehyde (147 ppb) was recorded in a new flat, while the minimum concentration (43 ppb) was observed in an old flat. The maximum hourly and daytime concentrations were 350 and 225 ppb, respectively. Air temperature, relative humidity and the age of the flat are factors affecting the emission and concentration of formaldehyde. The maximum indoor and outdoor formaldehyde concentrations were recorded during the summer season. During the spring, 38% of the samples indicated that the concentration of formaldehyde in the seven flats exceeded 0.1 ppm, the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers' (ASHRAE) standard; in the summer, this figure increased to 53%.     

Quantifying the effect of trend,fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity

Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and extreme events can also alter the ecosystem succession process, even resulting in an alternative trajectory. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on the provision of ecosystem functions and services and can also provide a basis for policy makers to apply adaptive measures to overcome the unfavorable influence of climate change.     

Seasonal evaluation of outdoor/indoor air quality in primary schools in Lisbon

The aim of this study was to evaluate the indoor (I) and outdoor (O) levels of NO?, speciated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and carbonyls at fourteen primary schools in Lisbon (Portugal) during spring, autumn and winter. Three of these schools were also selected to be monitored for comfort parameters, such as temperature and relative humidity, carbon dioxide (CO?), carbon monoxide (CO), total VOCs, and both bacterial and fungal colony-forming units per cubic metre. The concentration of CO? and bioaerosols greatly exceeded the acceptable maximum values of 1800 mg m?3 and 500 CFU m?3, respectively, in all seasons. Most of the assessed VOCs and carbonyls occurred at I/O ratios above unity in all seasons, thus showing the importance of indoor sources and building conditions in indoor air quality. However, it has been observed that higher indoor VOC concentrations occurred more often in the colder months, while carbonyl concentrations were higher in the warm months. In general, the I/O NO? ratios ranged between 0.35 and 1, never exceeding the unity. Some actions are suggested to improve the indoor air quality in Lisbon primary schools.     

Cape Fear: monitoring basic hydrological processes in an outdoor hillslope plot

Cape Fear is an outdoor 7 × 7 m² hillslope laboratory located at the University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy, and is equipped with real-time monitoring sensors used to analyse runoff generation. In this paper, hydrological phenomena that occurred during Cape Fear’s first 2 years of operation are reported to provide insight into the basic dynamics underlying the hydrological response at the hillslope scale. Based on our findings, surface and subsurface runoff are likely driven by rainfall-threshold phenomena, and evapotranspiration phenomena account for more than 70% of rainfall water input. Future studies will investigate the threshold relationship between rainfall and runoff.     

Climate Change: Use of Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes for Climate Data in Presence of a Change-Point

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - In this study, non-homogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) are used to analyze climate data. The data were collected over a certain period time and consist of...     

Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources

It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m³ in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Residential Energy Consumption in Dhaka City

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. The monthly electricity consumption data for the period 2011–2014 and long-term climate variables namely monthly rainfall and temperature records (1961–2010) were used in the study. An ensemble of six global circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) namely, BCCCSM1-1, CanESM2, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to project future changes in rainfall and temperature. The regression models describing the relationship between historical energy consumption and climate variables were developed to project future changes in energy consumptions. The results revealed that daily energy consumption in Dhaka city increases in the range of 6.46–11.97 and 2.37–6.25 MkWh at 95% level of confidence for every increase of temperature by 1 °C and daily average rainfall by 1 mm, respectively. This study concluded that daily total residential energy demand and peak demand in Dhaka city can increase up to 5.9–15.6 and 5.1–16.7%, respectively, by the end of this century under different climate change scenarios.