CFD-based assessment and visualization of the failure consequences of LPG tankers

This paper presents a simulation analysis of the explosions following an LPG leak and visualizes the consequences of the accident to reduce the consequences of the LPG leak explosion. Firstly, this paper proposes a CFD numerical simulation-based method for visualizing the consequences of LPG tanker failure. The method combines satellite maps and CFD numerical simulation data to visualize the consequences of LPG leaks and explosions, taking into account the influence of obstacles on the danger range of leaks and explosions; Secondly, this paper applies the method to a liquefied petroleum gas accident that occurred in the Wenling section of the Shenhai Expressway and performs CFD numerical simulation on the accident process and visualizes the consequences of the accident. Therefore, this method can provide a theoretical reference for the prior prevention of LPG accidents and the analysis of the consequences of accidents, as well as certain practical guidance instructive.     

Safety analysis and risk assessment in a new pesticide production line

In this work, the safety analysis of a new production line in a pesticide factory in Northern Italy is presented. The analysis was based on four different methods in a way that every part of the new line was investigated. The eventual incidents identified by this analysis were further examined with regard to their consequences using three different simulation models for the release and dispersion of the resultant toxic cloud. This analysis has proven that the risk level for the personnel of the factory and the surroundings is acceptable.     

Performance evaluation of integrated resilience engineering factors by data envelopment analysis: The case of a petrochemical plant

Petrochemical units are potentially prone to incidents that have catastrophic consequences such as explosion, leakage of toxic materials, and the stoppage of the production process. Resilience engineering (RE) is a new method that can control incidents and limit their consequences. It includes top-level commitment, reporting culture, learning, awareness, preparedness, and flexibility. However, this study introduces a new concept of RE (referred to as integrated RE or IRE) which includes the above factors in addition to self-organization, teamwork, redundancy and fault-tolerant. This study evaluates performance of IRE in a petrochemical plant through considering the obtained data from questionnaires and data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Moreover, the performance of RE and the new IRE are compared and discussed. The results show that although there is a strong direct correlation between the DEA results in two frameworks, the mean scores of efficiency in IRE is slightly higher than RE. This is the first study that introduces an integrated approach for RE. In addition, this study is amongst the first ones that examine the behavior of resilience engineering by DEA. Moreover, the superiority of IRE is shown through robust statistical analysis.     

Harnessing database resources for understanding the profile of chemical process industry incidents

Analyzing historical databases can provide valuable information on the incident occurrences and their consequences for assessing the safety of the chemical process industry. In this study, the RMP and HSEES databases were utilized to understand the patterns and the factors influencing chemical process industry incidents. Frequency exceedance curves were generated by utilizing the different incident consequences from the databases to understand the profile of societal loss from reported incidents. Understanding the statistics and trends of the historical incidents could serve as important lagging indicators in order to assess the probable proximity to major consequences from the low-probability/high-consequence incidents. To this regard, the safety pyramids were also generated to better understand the relationship between the different consequences of the reported incidents. Furthermore, the safety pyramids were analyzed in comparison with the traditional safety pyramid proposed by Heinrich to understand the US process industry incident occurrence trends.     

A dynamic approach for evaluating the consequences of toxic gas dispersion in the chemical plants using CFD and evacuation modelling

Accidental releases of toxic gas in the chemical plants have caused significant harm to the exposed occupants. To evaluate the consequences of these accidents, a dynamic approach considering the gas dispersion and behavior evacuation modelling has been proposed in this paper. This approach is applied to a hypothetical scenario including an accidental chlorine release in a chemical plant. CFD technique is utilized to calculate the time-varying concentration filed and evacuation modelling is used to obtain the evacuation routes. The exposure concentrations in the evacuation routes are calculated by using the code of data query. The integrated concentration toxic load model and probit model are used to calculate the probability of mortality of each occupant by using the exposure concentrations. Based on this dynamic approach, a new concept of average probability of mortality (APM) has been proposed to quantify the consequences of different accidental scenarios. The results show that APM decreases when the required detection time decreases or emergency evacuation mode is implemented. The impact of the detection time on APM becomes small as the wind speed increases. The effect of emergency evacuation mode is more obvious when the release occurs in an outdoor space.     

Handling and updating uncertain information in bow-tie analysis

Bow-tie analysis is a fairly new concept in risk assessment that can describe the relationships among different risk control parameters, such as causes, hazards and consequences to mitigate the likelihood of occurrence of unwanted events in an industrial system. It also facilitates the performance of quantitative risk analysis for an unwanted event providing a detailed investigation starting from basic causes to final consequences. The credibility of quantitative evaluation of the bow-tie is still a major concern since uncertainty, due to limited or missing data, often restricts the performance of analysis. The utilization of expert knowledge often provides an alternative for such a situation. However, it comes at the cost of possible uncertainties related to incompleteness (partial ignorance), imprecision (subjectivity), and lack of consensus (if multiple expert judgments are used). Further, if the bow-tie analysis is not flexible enough to incorporate new knowledge or evidence, it may undermine the purpose of risk assessment.Fuzzy set and evidence theory are capable of characterizing the uncertainty associated with expert knowledge. To minimize the overall uncertainty, fusing the knowledge of multiple experts and updating prior knowledge with new evidence are equally important in addition to addressing the uncertainties in the knowledge. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the uncertainties, aggregate knowledge and update prior knowledge or evidence, if new data become available for the bow-tie analysis. A case study comprising a bow-tie for a typical offshore process facility has also been developed to describe the utility of this methodology in an industrial environment.     

灾害模拟和后果分析软件架构

本文为基于GIS的公共安全应急体系中各灾害模拟和后果分析模块,研究并建立了一个从概念到实现的统一可扩展的接口,使公共安全灾害模拟和后果分析领域的研究成果能被广泛共享,并且更容易建立一个整合各类已有研究成果的软件体系.并且,本文结合"国家十五重点科技攻关(滚动)项目:合肥市公共安全应急示范试点研究"项目给出了原型实现.     

Assessment of the Consequences of Accident Scenarios Involving Dangerous Substances

This paper highlights major steps in the procedure for evaluating the consequences of accidents involving dangerous substances, especially during the storage, and loading/unloading activities. The procedure relies on identifying accident scenarios that could be encountered at particular plants, followed by a modelling of these scenarios by means of available modelling systems. Finally, the resultant outcomes are identified, together with their effects on both people and property. The resources needed to perform this procedure are discussed, in order to clarify the roles of plant operators, external experts and other institutions when evaluating any accident consequences. Four examples, all relevant in industrial practice, are given in order to illustrate the procedure: the releasing of liquified petroleum gas, flammable organic solvents, toxic chlorine, and oil fuels. The results of these studies may be used for a quick order-of-magnitude estimation of accidents consequences.     

Information seeking in documents by pilots: Assessment of the reliability problems caused by the transition from paper to electronic

Information seeking is completely ignored in research on aviation psychology and more generally in issues of air transport safety. But information seeking occupies a central place in the pilots’ work. And this activity is undergoing an important development: the transition from paper to electronic documents. A contribution to the assessment of this transition is presented here. The assessment is focused on deterioration of information access, understanding and exploitation, and their possible negative consequences in terms of reliability. The exploitation of the documentation by pilots, and particularly the information seeking activity, are described and linked to their contexts (i.e. the main tasks of flying that require information seeking). Then an users test is presented where some information-seeking tasks are evaluated in terms of cost and errors, by comparing electronic and paper documents. The results show that electronic documents provide new functions that seem useful but also that too many new functions generate difficulties. Then it seems that pilots need some time to learn how to use these new documents. Reducing attention needed to perform a task such as calculation is risky. Some aspects of information seeking by the pilots should be better analysed and evaluated.     

Implications of turnover and trust for safety attitudes and behaviour in work teams

Turnover potentially leads to a new individual being selected into a work team. This study investigated the safety-specific trust which team members place in their organisation’s selection and induction processes, and related this to the perceived risk from new employees. The research was conducted with teams working in forest harvesting, an occupation which has high-turnover, high risk and a high accident rate. Results indicate that trust in induction processes was negatively correlated with perceived risk from a new employee. Team members also engaged in a number of safety ensuring behaviours when a new individual joined the team, and these were related to the level of perceived risk, and how much they cared about their team members’ safety. It is argued that trust in the safety-specific characteristics of an organisation’s selection and induction process may have negative consequences for safety.     

Proactive and reactive helping: Contrasting the positive consequences of different forms of helping

Research on helping has identified positive consequences of helping for the helper, beneficiary, group, and organization. Recent research, however, raises concerns about contingencies that influence the outcomes of helping and suggests the need for a more nuanced perspective on the positive outcomes of helping. In this paper, we develop a novel theoretical perspective to address these contingencies by differentiating between proactive helping and reactive helping. Drawing from the two main theoretical frameworks, which have been used as the basis for studying helping—social exchange theory and functional motives theory—we discuss differences in the positive consequences of reactive and proactive helping for helpers, dyads, groups, and organizations. We submit that reactive helping facilitates heedful relationships, such that it creates and perpetuates social exchange norms that benefit others in the group. Conversely, we posit that proactive helping is often based on fulfilling personal needs, such that it benefits the self in terms of reputational benefits, well‐being, favorable self‐evaluations, need satisfaction, and self‐development. We discuss theoretical implications of this framework for future research on the positive consequences of helping. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.     

Occupational Cognitive Failures and Safety Performance in the Workplace

Introduction. The majority of industrial accidents occur because of human errors. Human error has different causes, however, in all cases cognitive abilities and limitations of human play an important role. Occupational cognitive failures are cognitively-based human errors that occur at work. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between occupational cognitive failures and safety consequences. Method. Personnel of a large industrial company in Iran filled out an occupational cognitive failure questionnaire (OCFQ) and answered questions on accidents. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between cognitive failures and safety consequences. Results. According to developed regression models, personnel with a high rate of cognitive failure, in comparison to low rate, have a high risk of minor injury involvement (OR 5.1, 95% CI [2.62, 10.3]); similar results were for major injury and near miss. Discussion. The results of this study revealed usefulness of the OCFQ as a tool of predicting safety-related consequences and planning preventive actions.     

Impact of Adaptive Front-lighting Systems (AFS) on road safety: Evidences and open points

Almost four years after the entry into force of Regulation ECE 123 on Adaptive Front-lighting Systems (AFS) for motor vehicles, and once the first cars bearing them start to circulate, a comparison between the original idea of AFS and their potential impact in safety and accident prevention is possible. In this work, we present the basic concepts of this new way to light roads and analyse some unforeseen consequences that might arise within the ECE regulatory framework once the presence of AFS becomes massive. This paper also pretends to be an useful guide for some countries like China, still considering the best way to definitively regulate these complex systems whose impact on road safety is expected to be huge.     

Risk assessment of chemical process considering dynamic probability of near misses based on Bayesian theory and event tree analysis

With the development of modern automatic control systems, chemical accidents are of low frequency in most chemical plants, but once an accident happens, it often causes serious consequences. Near-misses are the precursor of accidents. As the process progresses, near misses caused by abnormal fluctuation of process variables may eventually lead to accidents. However, variables that may lead to serious consequences in the production process cannot update the risk in the life cycle of the process by traditional risk assessment methods, which do not pay enough attention to the near misses. Therefore, this paper proposed a new method based on Bayesian theory to dynamically update the probability of key variables associated with process failure risk and obtain the risk change of the near-misses. This article outlines the proposed approach and uses a chemical process of styrene production to demonstrate the application. In this chemical process, the key variables include flow rate, liquid level, pressure and temperature. In order to study the dynamic risk of the chemical process with consideration of near misses, according to the accumulated data of process variables, firstly the abnormal probability of the variables and the failure rate of safety systems associated with the variables were updated with time based on Bayesian theory. On the basis of the dynamic probability of key process variables, an event tree of possible consequences caused by variable anomalies was established. From the logical relationship of the event tree, the probability of different consequences can be obtained. The results show that the proposed risk assessment method based on Bayesian theory can overcome the shortcomings of traditional analysis methods. It shows the dynamic characteristics of the probability of different near misses, and achieves the dynamic risk analysis of chemical process accidents.     

A model for estimating the impact of the domino effect on accident frequencies in quantitative risk assessments of storage facilities

It is well known that the domino effect can have a major impact on accidents in storage facilities, as it can increase the consequences of an initial event considerably. However, quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) do not usually take the domino effect into account in a detailed, systematic way, mostly because of its complexity and the difficulties involved in its incorporation. We have developed a simple method to include the domino effect in QRAs of storage facilities, by estimating the frequency with which new accidents will occur due to this phenomenon. The method has been programmed and implemented in two case studies. The results show that it can indeed be used to include the possibility of domino effect occurrence in a QRA. Furthermore, depending on the design of a facility, the domino effect can have a significant effect on the associated risk.     

The insurance market’s influence on investments in safety measures

In a risky process there are three alternative ways to treat the negative consequences of the risk or the accident. We can: (1) take all the consequences when an accidental event occurs, (2) reduce the probability and/or the consequences of an accidental event by safety measures or (3) transfer the consequences of the occurrence to parties better able to carry them (i.e. buying insurance). In safety management a prevailing practice is that access to an insurance market does not affect the investment in safety measures. In this paper we discuss what the consequences are of this common practice in relation to insurance and mandatory safety requirements. We conclude that an overinvestment in safety measures is very likely if insurance is not taken into account. Moreover, mandatory safety measures and insurance can lead to both over- and underinvestment in safety measures.     

基于模糊数学的石油化工装置HAZOP风险分析技术研究

对传统的HAZOP分析中偏差原因发生可能性进行量化。对于有统计数据的,根据行业数据、公司经验及企业事故建立HAZOP风险分析统计数据库;对于没有统计数据的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生概率,通过专家主观评判,用模糊数理论将专家自然语言转换为模糊数,采用左右模糊排序法将模糊数转换为模糊失效概率值。研究了偏差后果严重程度的划分标准,并根据偏差原因概率和偏差后果严重程度确定风险等级,利用风险矩阵得出偏差风险的大小。从而把HAZOP分析方法从定性改进为半定量的分析方法。据此对石油化工装置进行了HAZOP风险分析。     

Risk assessment and land-use planning regulations in France following the AZF disaster

After the disaster of AZF plant in Toulouse on 21 September 2001 (31 people killed, 3000 injured and 3 billion dollars of damage), France adopted a new law relative to safety reports and land-use planning on 30 July 2003. This law asks for the investigation of all representative scenarios and the assessment of their probabilities to demonstrate the acceptable level of safety of an industrial facility. Therefore significant changes were introduced in the way of doing risk analysis in France and some difficulties were found for the implementation of a probabilistic approach.This paper presents the new approach of risk analysis established by the French Ministry of the Environment, and particularly focuses on:? the benefits and limits of the semi-quantitative probabilistic assessment method;? the benefits and difficulties to use a quantitative probabilistic assessment method;? some learning from the risk analysis approaches carried out in the nuclear industry;? some discussion about the national matrix to appreciate the gravity of human consequences from an accident outside facilities.     

An extension of the fuzzy improved risk graph and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process for determination of chemical complex safety integrity levels

The risk graph (RG) is widely used to evaluate the safety integrity level (SIL) of safety instrument systems (SIS). However, subjective opinion-based conventional RGs cannot provide successful results for the problems of risk parameters, such as shortages or lack of data; hence, the output of a conventional approach lacks sufficient reliability. We introduced the fuzzy improved risk graph (FIRG), an extension of fuzzy set theory, to deal with possible ambiguities during SIL study and increase the reliability of conventional RGs. In the present study, the levels of consequences defined as linguistic terms were converted into qualitative intervals; therefore, by correlating the proposed approach with experts’ opinions and attributing weight factors, a desired SIL value was obtained. The output of this new approach can be compared directly with quantitative risk assessment techniques to improve the safety performance of industrial systems.