Carbon benefits from Amazonian forest reserves: leakage accounting and the value of time

Amazonian forest reserves have significant carbon benefits, but the methodology used for accounting for these benefits will be critical in determining whether the powerful economic force represented by mitigation efforts to slow global warming will be applied to creating these reserves. Opportunities for reserve creation are quickly being lost as new areas are opened to deforestation though highway construction and other developments. Leakage, or the effects that a reserve or other mitigation project provokes outside of the project boundaries, is critical to a proper accounting of net carbon benefits. Protected areas in the Amazon have particularly great potential mitigation benefits over an extended time horizon. Over a 100-year time frame, virtually no unprotected forest is likely to remain, meaning that potential leakages (both leakage to the vicinity of the reserves and that displaced by removing protected areas from the land-grabbing market) should not matter much because any short-term leakage would be “recovered” eventually. The effect of the value attributed to time greatly influences the impact of leakage on benefits credited to reserves. Simple assumptions regarding leakage scenarios illustrate the benefits of reserves and the critical areas where agreement is necessary to make this option a practical component of mitigation efforts. The stakes are too high to allow further delays in reaching agreement on these issues.     

A ton is not always a ton: A road-test of landfill,manure, and afforestation/reforestation offset protocols in the U.S. carbon market

The outcome of recent international climate negotiations suggests we are headed toward a more fragmented carbon market, with multiple emission trading and offset programs operating in parallel. To effectively harmonize and link across programs, it will be important to ensure that across offset programs and protocols that a “ton is a ton”. In this article, we consider how sample offsets projects in the U.S. carbon market are treated across protocols from five programs: the Clean Development Mechanism, Climate Action Reserve, Chicago Climate Exchange, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and the U.S. EPA's former program, Climate Leaders. We find that differences among protocols for landfill methane, manure management, and afforestation/reforestation project types in accounting boundary definitions, baseline setting methods, measurement rules, emission factors, and discounts lead to differences in offsets credited that are often significant (e.g. greater than 50%). We suggest opportunities for modification and harmonization of protocols that can improve offset quality and credibility and enhance prospects for future linking of trading units and systems.     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。本文在＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

Temporary storage of carbon in the biosphere does have value for climate change mitigation: a response to the paper by Miko Kirschbaum

Kirschbaum (Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 11:1151–1164, 2006) explores the climatic impact over time of temporarily sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. He concludes that temporary storage of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere “achieves effectively no climate-change mitigation”. His strongly worded statement begs for a response. This paper argues that Kirschbaum’s conclusion is an artifact of the specific perspective of his analysis and his choice of a definition for climate-change impact. Even temporary sinks put us on a lower path for climate change, a path that will not otherwise be accessible. For carbon sinks in the terrestrial biosphere, we argue that sooner is better and longer is better, but even known temporary sinks have value.

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Impact of bioenergy crops in a carbon dioxide constrained world: an application of the MiniCAM energy-agriculture and land use model

In the coming century, modern bioenergy crops have the potential to play a crucial role in the global energy mix, especially under policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as proposed by many in the international community. Previous studies have not fully addressed many of the dynamic interactions and effects of a policy-induced expansion of bioenergy crop production, particularly on crop yields and human food demand. This study combines an updated agriculture and land use (AgLU) model with a well-developed energy-economic model to provide an analysis of the effects of bioenergy crops on energy, agricultural and land use systems. The results indicate that carbon dioxide mitigation policies can stimulate a large production of bioenergy crops, dependent on the level of the policy. This production of bioenergy crops can lead to several impacts on the agriculture and land use system: decreases in forestland and unmanaged land, decreases in the average yield of food crops, increases in the prices of food crops, and decreases in the level of human demand of calories.

Review of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production systems and fertilizer management effects

Fertilizer nitrogen (N) use is expanding globally to satisfy food, fiber, and fuel demands of a growing world population. Fertilizer consumers are being asked to improve N use efficiency through better management in their fields, to protect water resources and to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while sustaining soil resources and providing a healthy economy. A review of the available science on the effects of N source, rate, timing, and placement, in combination with other cropping and tillage practices, on GHG emissions was conducted. Implementation of intensive crop management practices, using principles of ecological intensification to enhance efficient and effective nutrient uptake while achieving high yields, was identified as a principal way to achieve reductions in GHG emissions while meeting production demands. Many studies identified through the review involved measurements of GHG emissions over several weeks to a few months, which greatly limit the ability to accurately determine system-level management effects on net global warming potential. The current science indicates: (1) appropriate fertilizer N use helps increase biomass production necessary to help restore and maintain soil organic carbon (SOC) levels; (2) best management practices (BMPs) for fertilizer N play a large role in minimizing residual soil nitrate, which helps lower the risk of increased nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions; (3) tillage practices that reduce soil disturbance and maintain crop residue on the soil surface can increase SOC levels, but usually only if crop productivity is maintained or increased; (4) differences among fertilizer N sources in N₂O emissions depend on site- and weather-specific conditions; and (5) intensive crop management systems do not necessarily increase GHG emissions per unit of crop or food production; they can help spare natural areas from conversion to cropland and allow conversion of selected lands to forests for GHG mitigation, while supplying the world's need for food, fiber, and biofuel. Transfer of the information to fertilizer dealers, crop advisers, farmers, and agricultural and environmental authorities should lead to increased implementation of fertilizer BMPs, and help to reduce confusion over the role of fertilizer N on cropping system emissions of GHGs. Gaps in scientific understanding were identified and will require the collaborative attention of agronomists, soil scientists, ecologists, and environmental authorities in serving the immediate and long-term interests of the human population.     

后京都议定书时代的二氧化碳排放格局与中国面临的发展挑战

阐述了近期世界主要国家的温室气体排放状况,以及2012年<京都议定书>第一承诺期到期后,全球二氧化碳可能的排放格局.分析了气候变化对中国发展带来的挑战.指出气候变化是人类共同面临的挑战,世界各国都在采取各种措施努力减少额外的二氧化碳排放量;作为发展中的温室气体排放大国,中国面临巨大的减排压力,为此,中国必须尽快做出调整,向低碳经济转型.     

Carbon flow analysis of China's agro-ecosystem from 1980 to 2013: A perspective from substance flow analysis

Research on carbon cycling has attracted attention from both scientists and policy-makers. Based on material flow analysis, this study systematically budgets the carbon inputs, outputs and balance from 1980 to 2013 for China''s agro-ecosystem and its sub-systems, including agricultural land use, livestock breeding and rural life. The results show that from 1980 to 2013, both the carbon input and output were growing gradually, with the carbon input doubling from 1.6 Pg C/year in 1980 to 3.4 Pg C/year in 2013, while carbon output grew from 2.2 Pg C/year in 1980 to 3.8 Pg C/year in 2013. From 1980 to 2013, the crop production system in China has remained a carbon source, and the agricultural land uses were also almost all carbon sources instead of carbon sinks. As soil carbon stock plays a very important role in deciding the function of China''s agro-ecosystem as a carbon sink or source, practices that can promote carbon storage and sequestration will be an essential component of low carbon agriculture development in China.     

Effect of drainage on CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes from aquaculture ponds during winter in a subtropical estuary of China

Aquaculture ponds are dominant features of the landscape in the coastal zone of China.Generally,aquaculture ponds are drained during the non-culture period in winter.However,the effects of such drainage on the production and flux of greenhouse gases(GHGs)from aquaculture ponds are largely unknown.In the present study,field-based research was performed to compare the GHG fluxes between one drained pond(DP,with a water depth of 0.05 m)and one undrained pond(UDP,with a water depth of 1.16 m)during one winter in the Min River estuary of southeast China.Over the entire study period,the mean CO_2flux in the DP was(0.75±0.12)mmol/(m~2·hr),which was significantly higher than that in the UDP of(-0.49±0.09)mmol/(m~2·hr)(p0.01).This indicates that drainage drastically transforms aquaculture ponds from a net sink to a net source of CO_2in winter.Mean CH_4and N_2O emissions were significantly higher in the DP compared to those in the UDP(CH_4=(0.66±0.31)vs.(0.07±0.06)mmol/(m~2·hr)and N_2O=(19.54±2.08)vs.(0.01±0.04)μmol/(m~2·hr))(p0.01),suggesting that drainage would also significantly enhance CH_4and N_2O emissions.Changes in environmental variables(including sediment temperature,p H,salinity,redox status,and water depth)contributed significantly to the enhanced GHG emissions following pond drainage.Furthermore,analysis of the sustained-flux global warming and cooling potentials indicated that the combined global warming potentials of the GHG fluxes were significantly higher in the DP than in the UDP(p0.01),with values of739.18 and 26.46 mg CO_2-eq/(m~2·hr),respectively.Our findings suggested that drainage of aquaculture ponds can increase the emissions of potent GHGs from the coastal zone of China to the atmosphere during winter,further aggravating the problem of global warming.     

Modelling impacts of alternative farming management practices on greenhouse gas emissions from a winter wheat–maize rotation system in China

Agricultural production plays an important role in affecting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Field measurements were conducted in Quzhou County, Hebei Province in the North China Plains to quantify carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from a winter wheat–maize rotation field, a common cropping system across the Chinese agricultural regions. The observed flux data in conjunction with the local climate, soil and management information were utilized to test a process-based model, Denitrification–Decomposition or DNDC, for its applicability for the cropping system. The validated DNDC was then used for predicting impacts of three management alternatives (i.e., no-till, increased crop residue incorporation and reduced fertilizer application rate) on CO₂ and N₂O emissions from the target field. Results from the simulations indicated that (1) CO₂ emissions were significantly affected by temperature, initial SOC, tillage method, and quantity and quality of the organic matter added in the soils; (2) increases in temperature, initial SOC, total fertilizer N input, and manure amendment substantially increased N₂O emissions; and (3) temperature, initial SOC, tillage, and quantity and quality of the organic matter added in the soil all had significant effects on global warming. Finally, five 50-year scenarios were simulated with DNDC to predict their long-term impacts on crop yield, soil C dynamics, nitrate leaching losses, and N₂O emissions. The modelled results suggested that implementation of manure amendment or crop residue incorporation instead of increased fertilizer application rates would more efficiently mitigate GHG emissions from the tested agro-ecosystem. The multi-impacts provided a sound basis for comprehensive assessments on the management alternatives.     

Methane and CO2 fluxes from an Indonesian peatland used for sago palm (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.) cultivation: Effects of fertilizer and groundwater level management

Tropical peatland is a vast potential land source for biological production, but peatland is a major natural source of greenhouse gases, especially methane (CH₄). It is important to evaluate the changes in greenhouse gas emissions induced by cultivation practices for sustainable agricultural use of tropical peatland. We investigated the effects of fertilizer application and the groundwater level on CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes in an Indonesian peat soil. The crop cultivated was sago palm (Metroxylon sagu Rottb.), which can grow on tropical peat soil without drainage and yield great amounts of starch. CH₄ emission through sago palm plants was first estimated by collecting gas samples immediately after cutting sago suckers using the closed chamber method. The CH₄ fluxes ranged from negative values to 1.0 mg C m⁻² h⁻¹. The mean CH₄ flux from treatment with macroelements (N, P, and K) and microelements (B, Cu, Fe, and Zn) applied at normal rates did not differ significantly from that of the No fertilizer treatment, although increasing the application rates of macroelements or microelements by 10-fold increased the CH₄ flux by a factor of two or three. The relationship between CH₄ flux and the groundwater table was regressed to a logarithmic equation, which indicated that to maintain a small CH₄ flux, the groundwater table should be maintained at <−45 cm. The CO₂ fluxes ranged between 24 and 150 mg C m⁻² h⁻¹, and were not significantly affected by either fertilizer treatments or the groundwater level. The inclusion of sago palm suckers in a chamber increased CH₄ emission from the peat soil significantly. Thus, gas emissions mediated by certain kinds of palm plants should not be disregarded.     

Response of gaseous carbon emissions to low-level salinity increase in tidal marsh ecosystem of the Min River estuary, southeastern China

Although estuarine tidal marshes are important contributors to the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the relationship between carbon dioxide(CO_2), methane(CH_4)emission, and environmental factors, with respect to estuarine marshes, has not been clarified thoroughly. This study investigated the crucial factors controlling the emission of CO_2 and CH_4from a freshwater marsh and a brackish marsh located in a subtropical estuary in southeastern China, as well as their magnitude. The duration of the study period was November 2013 to October 2014. Relevant to both the field and incubation experiments, the CO_2 and CH_4emissions from the two marshes showed pronounced seasonal variations. The CO_2 and CH_4emissions from both marshes demonstrated significant positive correlations with the air/soil temperature(p 0.01), but negative correlations with the soil electrical conductivity and the pore water/tide water Cl-and SO_4~(2-)(p 0.01). The results indicate no significant difference in the CO_2 emissions between the freshwater and brackish marshes in the subtropical estuary, whereas there was a difference in the CH_4 emissions between the two sites(p 0.01). Although future sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion could reduce the CH_4 emissions from the estuarine freshwater marshes, these factors had little effect on the CO_2 emissions with respect to an increase in salinity of less than 5‰. The findings of this study could have important implications for estimating the global warming contributions of estuarine marshes along differing salinity gradients.     

Setting greenhouse gas emission targets under baseline uncertainty: the Bush Climate Change Initiative

There is substantial uncertainty regarding baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasts—i.e., how GHG emissions will grow over time in the absence of policy intervention. Thus baseline uncertainty should be a key consideration in setting GHG emissions targets as a mitigation strategy to respond to global climate change. At a minimum, the emissions target must be less than the baseline level to induce changing behavior and new investment. Despite this fundamental policy criterion, baseline considerations have played only a minor role in target setting under international climate policy. Baseline uncertainty applies to both absolute and intensity based emissions targets. It is demonstrated that one advantage of intensity targets is reduced uncertainty in the projected baseline, however there will always be some residual uncertainty in model projections. To illustrate the importance of considering baseline uncertainty in GHG target setting, the Bush Climate Change Initiative is analyzed against its projected baseline as a case study of a modest intensity target. Based on comparison with historical data, the range of projections by major energy-economic models, past discrepancies in the accuracy of model projections and the added complexity of sector-specific drivers for non-CO₂ GHGs, it is shown that the Bush Initiative cannot be guaranteed or even expected to deliver actual reductions against an uncertain baseline. This finding emphasizes the importance of setting a target that accounts for baseline uncertainty to achieve genuine mitigation of GHG emissions.

Assessment of carbon leakage in multiple carbon-sink projects: a case study in Jambi Province,Indonesia

Rehabilitation of degraded forest land through implementation of carbon-sink projects can increase terrestrial carbon (C) stock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which is commonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestration benefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon-sink projects that could potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of 11 sub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/cover being converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. The predictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area, distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agricultural land, unemployment (number of job seekers), job opportunities, population density and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and without carbon-sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated as being significant in their contribution to land use cover change. The results of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be large enough to more than offset the project’s carbon sequestration benefits during the period 2002–2012. However, leakage results are very sensitive to changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. By reducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10% for the baseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collection and refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study has demonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assess leakage.     

Effects of waste recovery on carbon footprint: a case study of the Gulf of Bothnia steel and zinc industries

This article analyses the impact of waste recovery on climate change mitigation on a regional scale. We focus on the EU End of Waste (EoW) policy, which aims at reducing negative impacts on the environment through the minimization of generated waste. At the same time, the EU climate objectives set challenging goals for the industry to lower greenhouse gas emissions. We argue that the goals of these two policies are conflicting: under certain circumstances, the EoW will lead into increased greenhouse gas emissions because of a number of negative feedback effects that function on multiple spatial and temporal scales.To assess the effects of waste recovery on greenhouse gas emissions, we carry out a consequential life-cycle inventory on a proposed industrial ecosystem around the Gulf of Bothnia between Finland and Sweden. The system recovers currently unutilized steelmaking dust and slag from four steel mills in Finland and Sweden and converts them into iron and zinc raw materials in a novel rotary hearth furnace. The recovered iron is led back into the blast furnace of one of the steel mills and zinc is treated in an existing zinc plant. In the European scale, the model system is significant in size, serving thus as a model for integrated EoW and carbon footprint assessments in other similar cases within the EU.The analysis reveals the relative greenhouse gas emissions from raw material extraction and production, heat and power generation, transport and the production process itself, in comparison to the present system with limited material recovery. To test the model viability, we conduct a sensitivity analysis with respect to increasing energy and production capacity. Our analysis shows that from the point of view of a single operator, material recovery may bring noteworthy reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. If the scale of the assessment is expanded beyond the confines of a single plant, however, we find limited potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through further recovery of steelmaking residues. In conclusion, we provide policy recommendations with which the EoW paradigm can provide better support for climate change mitigation on a regional scale.     

The value of energy efficiency programs for US residential and commercial buildings in a warmer world

US residential and commercial buildings were responsible for about 41 exajoules (EJ) of primary energy use per year in 2002, accounting for approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic carbon (C) emissions of 6.7 Gt that contribute to climate change. US Government-sponsored building energy efficiency research and implementation programs are focused on reducing energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings and reducing these carbon (C) emissions. Although not specifically intended for adaptation to a warmer climate and less effective than under today’s cooler climate, these programs also could help reduce energy demand in a future warmer world. Warming scenarios projected by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 imply net overall decreases in both site energy and primary energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings, largely because of the reduced need for heating. However, there would be as much as a 25% increase in building space cooling demand and a significant part of the increase could be offset by energy-efficiency improvements in buildings. Overall, in the US, buildings-related energy efficiency programs would reduce site energy consumption in buildings in the US by more than 2 EJ in 2020 and primary energy by more than 3.5 EJ, more than enough to offset the projected growth in cooling energy consumption due to climate change and growth in the US building stock. The savings would have an estimated annual net value at 2005 energy prices of between $45.0 and $47.3 billion to consumers.

Public acceptance and risk-benefit perception of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geological storage for global warming mitigation in Japan

CO₂ geological storage will be one of the cost-effective options for global warming mitigation, and this technology is under development widely in the world. However, the technology may face the challenge of public acceptance before its implementation. In order to evaluate the public acceptance, questionnaire surveys were conducted among Japanese university students. A cognitive map of geological storage, together with other major global warming mitigation options, everyday life activities, etc., was constructed by means of a statistical analysis of the responses to the questionnaire. The risk-benefit cognitive map consists of the following factors: “risk perception,” “benefit perception,” and “public acceptance.” The risk perception is further disaggregated into “dread risk” and “unknown risk.” Additionally, a second survey was conducted after providing the students with additional information on global warming and CO₂ geological storage, and the effects of the information on their perceptions were evaluated. The effects of risk and benefit perceptions on public acceptance were evaluated and discussed based on the cognitive maps representing the perceptions before and after providing the information. The analyses revealed that the benefit perception was more influential than the risk perception on the public acceptance of CO₂ geological storage. The benefit perception increased greatly after providing the information; however, the unknown risk remained considerably large. Further, RD&D relating unknown risk, for example, the monitoring technology for stored CO₂ and the risk assessment of CO₂ leakage, and the supply of related information to the public would be beneficial for increasing the public acceptance.     

Modeling the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on soil CO2 fluxes from a Switchgrass stand recently converted from cropland

Switchgrass(Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial C_4 grass native to North America and successfully adapted to diverse environmental conditions. It offers the potential to reduce soil surface carbon dioxide(CO_2) fluxes and mitigate climate change. However, information on how these CO_2 fluxes respond to changing climate is still lacking. In this study, CO_2 fluxes were monitored continuously from 2011 through 2014 using high frequency measurements from Switchgrass land seeded in 2008 on an experimental site that has been previously used for soybean(Glycine max L.) in South Dakota, USA. DAYCENT, a process-based model, was used to simulate CO_2 fluxes. An improved methodology CPTE[Combining Parameter estimation(PEST) with "Trial and Error" method] was used to calibrate DAYCENT. The calibrated DAYCENT model was used for simulating future CO_2 emissions based on different climate change scenarios. This study showed that:(i) the measured soil CO_2 fluxes from Switchgrass land were higher for 2012 which was a drought year, and these fluxes when simulated using DAYCENT for long-term(2015–2070) provided a pattern of polynomial curve;(ii) the simulated CO_2 fluxes provided different patterns with temperature and precipitation changes in a long-term,(iii) the future CO_2 fluxes from Switchgrass land under different changing climate scenarios were not significantly different, therefore, it can be concluded that Switchgrass grown for longer durations could reduce changes in CO_2 fluxes from soil as a result of temperature and precipitation changes to some extent.     

Methodological issues in forestry mitigation projects: a case study of Kolar district

There is a need to assess climate change mitigation opportunities in forest sector in India in the context of methodological issues such as additionality, permanence, leakage and baseline development in formulating forestry mitigation projects. A case study of forestry mitigation project in semi-arid community grazing lands and farmlands in Kolar district of Karnataka, was undertaken with regard to baseline and project scenario development, estimation of carbon stock change in the project, leakage estimation and assessment of cost-effectiveness of mitigation projects. Further, the transaction costs to develop project, and environmental and socio-economic impact of mitigation project was assessed. The study shows the feasibility of establishing baselines and project C-stock changes. Since the area has low or insignificant biomass, leakage is not an issue. The overall mitigation potential in Kolar for a total area of 14,000 ha under various mitigation options is 278,380 t C at a rate of 20 t C/ha for the period 2005–2035, which is approximately 0.67 t C/ha/year inclusive of harvest regimes under short rotation and long rotation mitigation options. The transaction cost for baseline establishment is less than a rupee/t C and for project scenario development is about Rs. 1.5–3.75/t C. The project enhances biodiversity and the socio-economic impact is also significant.