A comprehensive assessment system for the maritime traffic environment

It is desirable when drawing up a maritime traffic environmental project or a project for consolidating port and harbour facilities, that the safety of the maritime environment for shipping-traffic is assessed quantitatively, and that the rationale of a given project and the proposed safety measures are evaluated in an objective manner.In this report, the system flow and procedures to integrally assess the safety of the maritime traffic environment by systematically combining various simulation techniques are discussed first.Subsequently, the quantitative risk evaluation procedure for collisions of ships in waters with a high traffic density, among the assessment procedures above, and an outline of the shipping traffic flow simulation capable of reproducing ships′ movements, are described. In evaluating the results of simulations, a method introducing Subjective Judgement values (SJ-values) as indexes manifesting the subjective degree of danger felt by shiphandlers, is shown. The SJ-values were experimentally determined from simulator experiments using parameters representing the relation ship with other ships proceeding in the vicinity.Finally, some of the results of studies conducted for the recent construction of new LNG berths in Tokyo Bay are introduced as an example of practical safety assessment in this field.     

Hydrocarbon releases on oil and gas production platforms: Release scenarios and safety barriers

The main objective of this paper is to present and discuss a set of scenarios that may lead to hydrocarbon releases on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Each release scenario is described by an initiating event (i.e., a deviation), the barrier functions introduced to prevent the initiating event from developing into a release, and how the barrier functions are implemented in terms of barrier systems. Both technical and human/operational safety barriers are considered. The initiating events are divided into five main categories: (1) human and operational errors, (2) technical failures, (3) process upsets, (4) external events or loads, and (5) latent failures from design. The release scenarios may be used as basis for analyses of: (a) the performance of safety barriers introduced to prevent hydrocarbon releases on specific platforms, (b) the platform specific hydrocarbon release frequencies in future quantitative risk analyses, (c) the effect on the total hydrocarbon release frequency of the safety barriers and risk reducing measures (or risk increasing changes).     

The development of probabilistic models to estimate accident risk (due to runway overrun and landing undershoot) applicable to the design and construction of runway safety areas

The risks of landing overrun (LDOR – LanDing OverRun), Take-off Overrun (TOOR – Take-Off OverRun) and landing undershoot (LDUS – LanDing UnderShoot) are dependent on multiple factors related to operating conditions. These include wind, runway surface conditions, landing or take-off distances required, the presence of obstacles, runway distance available, the existence and dimensions of runway safety areas.In this paper we propose risk models for runway overrun and landing undershoot, using a probabilistic approach. These models are supported by historical data on accidents in the area around the runway and will enable us to determine if the risk level is acceptable or whether action must be taken to mitigate such risks at a given airport. Furthermore, these models permit comparison of the results of different risk mitigation actions in terms of operational risk and safety.The principal advantage of this method is the high quality results obtained for a limited investment in terms of time, computing power and data. As such the method is extremely practical and easy to apply in aerodrome planning, development and operation.     

Review: Risk Compensation Literature — The Theory and Evidence

Risk compensation denotes offsetting behavioral responses to safety improvements. Theoretical arguments suggest that, when drivers are required to drive safer cars or drive in a safer manner, they will tend to increase their driving speed or drive in some other risky manner.

The purpose of this paper is to review critically the theory and evidence on risk compensation. Our general conclusion is that the application of risk compensation theory, especially to some types of regulations, is questionable, and the empirical support for significant offsetting behavior is weak. Specifically—(1) the role of limitations in processing information is not appreciated, especially regarding risk perceptions and the learning component associated with new regulations; (2) the types of regulations and types of driving behavior are not adequately distinguished; and (3) the empirical studies haves mixed results and are subject to important limitations.     

Regulatory risk control through mandatory occupational safety and health (OSH) certification and testing regimes (CTRs)

Governments make increasing use of private certification and testing infrastructures as an alternative for traditional regulatory arrangements in several areas including occupational safety and health (OSH).This research, commissioned by the Dutch Inspectorate for Work and Income (IWI), concerns an analysis of risk control of four certification and testing regimes (CTRs) in the Netherlands, three mandatory regimes and one non-mandatory regime. The aim was to create a better understanding of problems that may arise in the risk control through such regimes and to identify critical processes and factors that can affect the risk control process.The results of this research are reported in two papers in this special issue (see also Zwetsloot et al., this issue). This one presents an analysis of the risk control at the regulatory level, and its associated critical factors and processes. These critical factors are clustered in four essential processes: the regulatory choice for a CTR, the definition of requirements for the auditing or inspection regime, the certification and testing processes as such, and the processes needed for the self-correcting or learning capability of the CTR. Jointly, these factors and processes form a framework for both the design and the evaluation of such regimes. The case studies clearly demonstrate that these critical factors may undermine the effectiveness of such regulatory practices. We propose that a further development of our framework should be used in the (re)design process for proposed and existing CTRs, and in the process of independent evaluation of such regimes.     

Real-time risk assessment of explosion on offshore platform using Bayesian network and CFD

Combustion or explosion accident resulting from accidental hydrocarbon release poses a severe threat to the offshore platform's operational safety. Much attention has been paid to the risk of an accident occurring over a long period, while the real-time risk that escalates from a primary accident to a serious one was ignored. In this study, a real-time risk assessment model is presented for risk analysis of release accidents, which may escalate into a combustion or explosion. The proposed model takes advantage of Fault Tree-Event Tree (FT-ET) to describe the accident scenario, and Bayesian network (BN) to obtain the initial probability of each consequence and describe the dependencies among safety barriers. Besides, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is applied to handle the relationship between gas dispersion and time-dependent risk. Ignition probability model that considering potential ignition sources, gas cloud, and time series are also integrated into this framework to explain the likelihood of accident evolution. A case of release accidents on a production platform is used to test the availability and effectiveness of the proposed methodology, which can be adopted for facilities layout optimization and ignition sources control.     

Risk analysis and risk management approaches applied to the petroleum industry and their applicability to IO concepts

Due to changes introduced by Integrated Operations (IO) it is possible that traditional risk analysis and risk management approaches in the oil and gas industry are also challenged. In this paper we study the impact on these approaches by asking two questions: (1) what methods for risk analysis are used in the Norwegian oil and gas industry? (2) What are the risk analysis and risk management challenges in an IO context from the perspective of actors in the Norwegian oil and gas industry? An explorative approach was chosen and the empirical findings are based on three separate studies: (1) a survey of risk analysis and risk management in different business sectors in the oil and gas industry; (2) qualitative interviews about the generation of knowledge for decisions that involve risk in an operating company; and (3) qualitative interviews of people working with risk analyses in different companies exploring their use of risk analysis methods. The four main results are: due to IO it is necessary to look for other inputs to risk analyses; establish suitable assessment approaches to human and organizational issues; develop resilience-based approaches for operational risk assessment; and, utilize IO to improve the risk management process.     

Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

System safety principles: A multidisciplinary engineering perspective

System safety is of particular importance for many industries. Broadly speaking, it refers to the state or objective of striving to sustainably ensure accident prevention through actions on multiple safety levers (technical, organizational, and regulatory). While complementary to risk analysis, it is distinct in one important way: risk analysis is anticipatory rationality examining the possibility of adverse events (or accident scenarios), and the tools of risk analysis support and in some cases quantify various aspects of this analysis effort. The end-objective of risk analysis is to help identify and prioritize risks, inform risk management, and support risk communication. These tools however do not provide design or operational guidelines and principles for eliminating or mitigating risks. Such considerations fall within the purview of system safety.In this work, we propose a set of five safety principles, which are domain-independent, technologically agnostic, and broadly applicable across industries. While there is a proliferation of detailed safety measures (tactics) in specific areas and industries, a synthesis of high-level safety principles or strategies that are independent of any particular instantiation, and from which specific safety measures can be derived or related to, has pedagogical value and fulfills an important role in safety training and education. Such synthesis effort also supports creativity and technical ingenuity in the workforce for deriving specific safety measures, and for implementing these principles and handling specific local or new risks. Our set of safety principles includes: (1) the fail-safe principle; (2) the safety margins principle; (3) the un-graduated response principle (under which we subsume the traditional “inherently safe design” principle); (4) the defense-in-depth principle; and (5) the observability-in-depth principle. We carefully examine each principle and provide examples that illustrate their use and implementation. We relate these principles to the notions of hazard level, accident sequence, and conditional probabilities of further hazard escalation or advancement of an accident sequence. These principles are a useful addition to the intellectual toolkit of engineers, decision-makers, and anyone interested in safety issues, and they provide helpful guidelines during system design and risk management efforts.     

我国生产安全领域个人风险和社会风险标准界定方法研究

通过对国内外风险标准界定研究,结合我国实际情况,提出包括安全生产责任制、安全管理组织机构、安全生产管理法规、安全生产投入、安全生产科学研究等12个影响生产安全领域的风险影响因素,并采用层次分析法对风险影响因素进行分析。其结果表明,安全生产规划、安全生产控制指标、安全生产管理法规和安全管理组织机构对风险值的影响程度最高。率先提出我国风险影响因素评价指标计算方法、个人风险标准和社会风险标准计算方法。研究成果对制定我国生产安全领域风险标准界定方法、建立我国安全生产风险标准具有重要意义。     

Development and evaluation of a risk management methodology for pedestrian surfaces

This paper describes the development and evaluation of the Pedestrian Surface (PS) priority indicator (PS priority indicator). This tool was developed to comply with Australian Standard AS 4360: 2004 (Risk Management). Pedestrian surfaces should be evaluated to identify hazards and assess the level of risk calculated in order to ensure that the surfaces do not have a significant level of risk. If a significant level of risk is present, then control measures should be implemented. Pedestrian surfaces for the purposes of this research are classified as same level surfaces (excluding stairways) where pedestrians on foot (or by wheelchair) travel from one place to another.     

Guidance note: risk management of workers with medical electronic devices and metallic implants in electromagnetic fields.

Medical electronic devices and metallic implants are found in an increasing number of workers. Industrial applications requiring intense electromagnetic fields (EMF) are growing and the potential risk of injurious interactions arising from EMF affecting devices or implants needs to be managed. Potential interactions include electromagnetic interference, displacement, and electrostimulation or heating of adjacent tissue, depending on the device or implant and the frequency of the fields. A guidance note, which uses a risk management framework, has been developed to give generic advice in (a) risk identification--implementing procedures to identify workers with implants and to characterise EMF exposure within a workplace; (b) risk assessment--integrating the characteristics of devices, the anatomical localisation of implants, occupational hygiene data, and application of basic physics principles; and (c) risk control--advising the worker and employer regarding safety and any necessary changes to work practices, while observing privacy.     

基于成本收益分析的油气管道风险控制决策过程

为实现对油气管道风险的有效控制,结合油气管道的特点,基于成本收益分析方法改进风险控制决策过程。首先,确定风险控制目标,对所建议的措施进行初步筛选,并根据行业现状确定基线场景;之后,量化筛选后的措施的成本与收益,通过计算成本收益率(CBR)或规避事故隐含成本(ICAF)来确定相应措施的合理性;最后,依据上述分析制定风险控制决策。结果表明:不同措施的CBR或ICAF值不同,CBR或ICAF值较低的措施应被优先实施;而当CBR或ICAF值超过标准值时,相应措施是不合理的,应不予以实施。     

Workplace bullying in risk and safety professionals

IntroductionPrevious research demonstrates that workplace bullying impacts the welfare of victimized employees, with further consequences for the organization and profession. There is, however, a paucity of information relating to the bullying directed at risk and safety professionals. The present study was conducted to address this issue.MethodRisk and safety professionals (N = 420) completed the Negative Acts Questionnaire – Revised and Brief Cope, and reported the extent to which they had been pressured to make or amend a risk or safety based decision.ResultsThose experiencing workplace bullying were more likely to engage in a range of coping behaviors, with exposure to work-related and personal bullying particularly influential. Workplace bullying also predicted pressure to make or change a risk or safety based decision. Work related and physically intimidating bullying were particularly important for this aspect of professional practice.ConclusionsFindings are discussed with regard to current practice and the support available to risk and safety professionals.Practical applicationsRisk and safety professionals require additional support in relation to workplace bullying and specifically guidance to resist pressure to make or change a risk or safety based decision.     

Comparative judgements of crash risk and driving ability for speeding behaviours

Introduction: Preliminary research has indicated that numerous drivers perceive their risk of traffic crash to be less than other drivers, while perceiving their driving ability to be better. This phenomenon is referred to as ‘comparative optimism’ (CO) and may prove to inhibit the safe adoption of driving behaviors and/or dilute perceptions of negative outcomes. The objective of this study was to investigate comparative judgments regarding crash risk and driving ability, and how these judgments relate to self-reported speeding. Method: There were 760 Queensland motorists comprised of 51.6% males and 48.2% females, aged 16–85 (M = 39.60). Participants completed either a paper or online version of a survey. Judgments of crash risk and driving ability were compared to two referents: the average same-age, same-sex driver, and the average same-age, same-sex V8 supercar champion. Results: Drivers displayed greater optimism when comparing their crash risk and driving ability to the average same-age, same- sex driver (respectively, 72%, 72.4%), than when comparing to a V8 supercar champion (respectively, 60%, 32.9%). When comparing judgements of crash risk and driving ability to a similar driver, it appears that participants in the present study are just about as optimistic about their risk of crash (i.e. 72%) as they are optimistic about their driving ability (i.e. 74.2%).     

Integrating lean principles and fuzzy bow-tie analysis for risk assessment in chemical industry

In this research, a framework combining lean manufacturing principles and fuzzy bow-tie analyses is used to assess process risks in chemical industry. Lean manufacturing tools and techniques are widely used for eliminating wastes in manufacturing environments. The five principles of lean (identify value, map the value stream, create flow, establish pull, and seek perfection) are utilized in the risk assessment process. Lean tools such as Fishbone Diagram, and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are used for risk analysis and mitigation. Lean principles and tools are combined with bow-tie analysis for effective risk assessment process. The uncertainty inherent with the risks is handled using fuzzy logic principles. A case study from a chemical process industry is provided. Main risks and risk factors are identified and analyzed by the risk management team. Fuzzy estimates are obtained for the risk factors and bow-tie analysis is used to calculate the aggregated risk probability and impact. The risks are prioritized using risk priority matrix and mitigation strategies are selected based on FMEA. Results showed that the proposed framework can effectively improve the risk management process in the chemical industry.     

Developing a new alternative risk assessment framework in the work sites by including a stochastic and a deterministic process: A case study for the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

An individual method cannot achieve the optimum risk-assessment result in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the parallel application of a deterministic approach with a stochastic approach. In particular, the risk analysis and assessment techniques of the deterministic (DET) approach are classified into three main categories: (a) the qualitative, (b) the quantitative, and (c) the hybrid techniques (qualitative-quantitative, semi-quantitative). Furthermore, the stochastic (STO) approach includes the classic statistical approach (CSA) and the accident forecasting modeling (AFM). The objective of this paper is triple: (a) the presentation and classification of the main risk analysis and risk assessment methods and techniques of the deterministic approach and the stochastic approach as well, (b) the development and presentation of a new alternative risk assessment framework (called as STODET) including a stochastic and a deterministic process, and (c) the application of STODET in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 17-year period of 1993-2009. In particular, the STODET application proves that required actions (or suppressive measures) are essential and must be taken in a medium-term period (1 working year) for abolishing the hazard sources.     

On risk governance deficits

The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) has recently presented a report comprising an analysis and illustration of the most common deficits in risk governance. The work covers issues related to both assessments and management of risk. In this paper we take a closer look into this report. We acknowledge the work as an important contribution to the risk governance field, how risk decision-makers and practitioners in government and industry can improve the risk governance, but we also point to some weaknesses in the analysis, which are critical for the understanding and use of the IRGC document. Most of these relate to the understanding of fundamental ideas and phenomena, in particular risk and uncertainty. The rationale for several defined deficits is questioned, including “missing, ignoring or exaggerating early signals of risk” and “failure of managers to respond and take action when risk assessors have determined from early signals that a risk is emerging”. Simple examples are used to illustrate the problems and show how they can be rectified.     

Joint applicability test of software for laboratory assessment and risk analysis

Most of the available risk management methods are not directly applicable to academic research laboratories. One solution to systematically perform risk analyses in this environment is the Laboratory Assessment and Risk Analysis (LARA) method. This method was developed to allow untrained personnel to identify of possible risks and rank them according to their importance. The purpose of this study was to find out, if this method can be used as a holistic risk management technique in different environments, and which are the differences when comparing the results to other, well established risk analysis techniques. The risk analyses were performed at two European universities and for various procedures. The results show, that the LARA procedure is more easily performable than the other methods and gives comparably adequate results. Being applicable by non-experts, this holistic risk analysis method for research laboratories can help to reduce the accident rate in the academic environment.