Options for baselines of the clean development mechanism

The Kyoto Protocol created the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to allow industrial countries to reach part of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction through projects in developing countries. To calculate the achieved emission reduction a reference scenario has to be developed – the baseline. Despite efforts to develop realistic baselines, a certain degree of uncertainty regarding actual reductions will be inevitable. It is therefore necessary to compare the costs (including transaction costs) of developing a baseline against the informational benefit it can be expected to produce. While project-related baselines are already being applied, the proponents of country-related baselines have still to show the applicability of their approach for the CDM. The possibility of quantifying indirect effects and considering market distortions and subsidies through aggregation in the country-related baselines is weighed up by the manipulability and uncertainty of the assumptions required in such a baseline. Thus project-specific baselines are recommended. In cases of severely distorted markets undergoing liberalization or subsidy phase-out, a country-related baseline can be helpful. Sectoral or programme baselines would be suited to large-scale energy and sequestration projects. Moreover it has to be considered whether emission reductions are generally achieved in the context of relocation or done in the context of global emitting capacity expansion.     

Baseline Standardisation with Optimising Energy-System Models

Determining adequate baselinesis a major methodological problem whenquantifying emissions reductions achievedwith the project-based flexibilitymechanisms. Possible methodologies forbaseline setting may be classified intomulti-project and project-specificapproaches. While multi-project approachesprovide baselines for a series of typicalprojects within a certain geographicregion, a sector, or a load range,project-specific (orproject-by-project/single-project)approaches only cover one specific project.Project-by-project baseline approaches havebeen tested extensively within theActivities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilotphase; multi-project methodologies, on theother hand, have only rarely been applieddue to the (perceived) political andeconomic complexity of the issue, whichmakes the process of introducingstandardised baselines a very sensitivetask. In particular, there is a lack ofmulti-project baseline approaches takingadvantage of optimising computer modelswithin the electricity sector, even thoughother fields of research have made use ofsuch models quite successfully in the past.Experiences made in the PROBASE projectwith the calculation of standardised,aggregated multi-project baselines forJI/CDM projects using optimising energysystem models are illustrated in this paperfor South Africa, Russia, and Indonesia.Increased transparency and credibility ofstandardised approaches along withpotentially lower transaction costs areidentified as the main arguments for theiruse and further development. In addition,the text gives recommendations wheremodel-based baseline standardisation canpreferentially be applied.     

Land use change and forestry climate project regional baselines: a review

Climate change programs have largely used the project-specific approach for estimating baseline emissions of climate mitigation projects. This approach is subjective, lacks transparency, can generate inconsistent baselines for similar projects, and is likely to have high transaction costs. The use of regional baselines, which partially addresses these issues, has been reported in the literature on forestry and agriculture projects, and in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation program guidance for them (e.g., WRI/WBCSD GHG Project Protocol, USDOE’s 1605(b) registry, UNFCCC’s Clean Development Mechanism). This paper provides an assessment of project-specific and regional baselines approaches for key baseline tasks, using project and program examples. The regional experience to date is then synthesized into generic steps that are referred to as Stratified Regional Baselines (SRB). Regional approaches generally, and SRB in particular explicitly acknowledge the heterogeneity of carbon density, land use change, and other key baseline driver variables across a landscape. SRB focuses on providing guidance on how to stratify lands into parcels with relatively homogeneous characteristics to estimate conservative baselines within a GHG assessment boundary, by applying systematic methods to determine the boundary and time period for input data.

Preserving Environmental Integrity in standardised baselines: The role of additionality and uncertainty

The European Union EU project PROBASE hasexplored a range of possible multi projectstandardised benchmarks as a way ofencouraging projects under Joint Implementation (JI) and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)by minimising transaction costs. The aim ofthis paper is to examine the environmentalintegrity of the use of standardisedbaselines and to explore the role ofadditionality. The environmental integritydepends on the uncertainty in emissionreductions, which was estimated bygenerating scenario baselines and comparingthese with the standardised baselines. Thishas allowed a comparison of selected multiproject baselines with the envelope ofuncertainty on the reductions. The projectsincluded a range of electricity supply,heat sector, cogeneration and methane(CH$_{4}$) projects in different countries. Theanalysis showed that the key uncertaintieswere in the technology fuel selection inthe baseline, the continued additionalityof the project emission reductions,uncertainties in some project emissions(e.g. spinning reserve emissions for wind)and data uncertainties. The effect on theestimation of reductions was in the range±12% to ±46% for the electricityprojects and from ±19% to ±57%for the heat and Combined Heat and Power CHP sector projects.Comparison with the envelope of uncertaintyfor the range of projects showed that multiproject electricity sector baselines whichhave been weighted or use high technologyperformance benchmarks (e.g. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD)can provide conservative estimates buttheir general nature can lead to variationsbetween countries. We would recommend thatthe country-specific context must be takeninto account so that standardised baselinesfor the electricity sector are generated onthe basis of country specificcharacteristics, the project type, andwhether it provides new or existing demand.The conservative scenario produced shouldthen be weighted. Whereas weightings havebeen applied to account for uncertaintiesor to bias towards renewables, we havesuggested a weighting factor of 25% on theelectricity baseline for large projectsbased on an analysis of the effect ofnon-additionality on emission reductionuncertainty. For heat projects, theappropriate benchmark is a technology/fuelbenchmark which is deemed relevant for theheat sector in that (part of the) country.Again we suggest that a weighted sectorbaseline is required to take account of theuncertainties. These recommendations applyto large projects only for a 10-yearcrediting lifetime.     

Forest Management for Greenhouse Gas Benefits: Resolving Monitoring Issues Across Project and National Boundaries

Demand for new environmental services from forests requires improved monitoring of these services at three scales: project-, regional-, and national-level. Most forest management activities are organized at the project scale, while the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) recognizes the nation as the party to the agreement. Hence, measurement and monitoring issues are emerging at the intersections of the project and national scales, referred to here as monitoring-domain edge effects. The following actions are necessary to improve existing monitoring capabilities and to help resolve project/national edge effects: (1) consensus on standard methods and protocols for monitoring mitigation activities, their off-site greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts, the fate of forest products and their relation to national GHG inventories (baselines); (2) a global program for collecting land use, land cover, biomass burning, and other data essential for national baselines; (3) the development of new nested-monitoring-domain methods that allow projects to be identified in national GHG inventories (baselines), and permit tracking of leakage of GHGs and wood product flows outside project boundary and over time; and (4) presentation of a set of credible, carefully designed, and well-documented forest mitigation activities that resolve most of the current issues.     

中国2000年水环境污染直接经济损失与治理费用估算

本文以我国部分省、市、地区的有关数据为样本,对水体污染负荷量及水污染造成的直接经济损失进行了统计分析,提出了估算我国水环境污染造成直接经济损失的数学模型,并按目前发展趋势估算了我国到公元2000年时水环境污染对能造成的直接经济损失。初步估算结果表明,如不采取有力措施控制污染物排放,在1986年至2000年的15年中,全国水环境污染造成的直接经济损失将达到2735亿元。 本文还以我国数百套污水处理装置的调查结果为依据,给出了较为简单的污水处理费用函数,并估算了我国公元2000年前不同时期、不同目标的污水治理费用。      

Emergy as a tool for Ecodesign: evaluating materials selection for beverage packages in Brazil

The life of a product begins with the initial product design concepts; the costs and potential impacts of a product are heavily influenced by the final design, the production processes, the economic and environmental costs of all raw materials. Additionally, both of these factors are very much affected by how the products are managed during and after consumer usage. Thus, there is an urgent need for a tool to facilitate the integration and assessment of environmental and economic demands into the product planning and development processes. The introduction of environmental accounting based on emergy as a tool to assist in product design is proposed. This complementary tool may be inserted into the conventional design methodology to facilitate in the selection of materials and processes as well as in the actual design of the products. To illustrate the application of the proposed method for material selection, PET (polyethylene terephthalate) bottles and aluminum cans for beverage packaging are compared. Despite the exceptional condition of aluminum recycling in Brazil, results show that the best option for beverage packages is the PET bottles.     

Towards a capability approach of sustainability

Despite having a strong influence on development policies, theories of sustainability have not paid much attention to the capability approach (CA) thus far. Against this backdrop, the present paper argues for the CA’s usefulness of sustainability. In order to avoid just an additional contribution to the already confusing theoretical situation as well as to rely our exploration of the CA’s aptness for a conception of sustainability on a transparent and comparable basis, we will first identify six adequacy conditions for concepts of sustainability. We will then work out a categorial framework for conceptions of sustainability. Finally we will demonstrate how the CA is a promising candidate for filling in the demands of this framework and what further research will be needed.     

Coastal household adaptation cost requirements to sea level rise impacts

This study assessed the autonomous adaptation cost requirements of coastal households to sea level rise impacts at a level to accommodate and protect (excluding retreat). The study examined six vulnerable villages, including both urbanized and fishery communities, located in the Gulf of Thailand. Half of them were near the shore, and the other half were further inland. In initiating the study, to assess actual adaptation costs, common household adaptative measures were first identified; then, using a questionnaire to collect associated costs data, interviews were conducted with individual households. To predict future adaptation costs, the study applied the budgeting for recurrent costs of investment and the future value of an equal annual expenditures payment. Adaptation costs were classified into capital and operating expenditures. Then a statistical comparison was completed of the mean differences in costs between the villages. The study results indicate that the impacted households primarily spent their money for capital expenditures related to home and farming environments. Operating expenditures are not a concern for them. The expected future adaptation costs adjusted with inflation throughout the next 30 years will be five times that of the present costs. This will require households to plan their savings very carefully. Whereas the adaptation costs of urbanized villages are clearly higher than those of fishery villages, there is no significant difference in the costs between near shore and next-to-shore villages. Information regarding adaptation costs at the household level is extremely rare. Knowing the requisite amount for the adaptation costs will be of added benefit to policy makers preparing for future assistance programs.     

加入WTO对中国环保产业的影响

目前，我国环保产业已经具备了加入WTO的基础条件，入世将给环保产业发展带来新的机遇，但短期内也使我国环保产业面临巨大的挑战，需要采取措施，使环保产业成为我国21世纪新的经济增长点。     

航空遥感探测海上溢油的技术

对加拿大环境技术中心应急科学部多年来在航空遥感探测海上溢油方面的研究成果进行了汇总 ,对各国不同类型的航空遥感技术的性能、成本及飞机的要求进行了比较分析     

基于水经济价值的长江口环境流量探讨

适宜的环境流量对于维持河口生态系统稳定以及保障区域社会经济用水需求有着重要意义。论文以探讨水资源优化配置条件下长江口适宜环境流量为目的,基于水经济价值分析构建了长江中下游水资源优化配置模型,分析了区域缺水量以及环境流量约束的影子成本随长江口环境流量约束的变化。结果表明：当环境流量约束超过临界值后,区域缺水量不断增加,且环境流量约束产生非零影子成本;通过区域供水目标和环境流量约束的影子成本图确定长江口适宜环境流量的上限和下限,得到20%、50%、75%及95%水资源保证率下,长江口适宜环境流量分别为27.10×10⁹~29.65×10⁹、25.50×10⁹~27.12×10⁹、23.08×10⁹~24.62×10⁹及17.72×10⁹~19.65×10⁹ m³/月;该环境流量标准可以满足一定目标下长江口的生态需求。     

寒旱区草原湖泊沉积物重金属地球化学基线构建——以达里诺尔湖为例

为了科学识别寒旱区典型草原湖泊——达里诺尔湖的沉积物重金属累积状况,在调查表层及柱状沉积物重金属含量的基础上,采用多种统计学方法构建了沉积物重金属地球化学基线,并针对构建结果进行了多方面比较分析.结果表明,Cr、Ni、Cu、Zn、As、Cd、Hg、Pb在表层及柱状沉积物中均呈正态分布或对数正态分布,其中,柱状沉积物中的重金属分布较表层更为集中,且As、Cd、Hg在近表层呈现较明显的增长趋势,表明存在一定的表层富集;使用参考元素法、相对累积频率法和迭代2倍标准差法构建的表层、柱状沉积物重金属基线值之间无显著差异（P<0.05）,综合考虑科学性,适用性,简便性,人为误差性等方面,可优先选取迭代2倍标准差法进行元素基线构建;研究构建的达里诺尔湖沉积物重金属基线值与所在区域的大尺度土壤背景值相比存在差异,且表层与柱状沉积物基线值也存在差异,考虑到达里诺尔湖流域人为干扰极小,使用研究区域的表层沉积物开展基线值构建,可为识别湖泊当前重金属富集状况和生态风险提供更为科学和准确的参考依据.研究结果可为类似的寒旱区草原湖泊沉积物重金属基线值构建提供理论依据.     

我国资源经济与世界资源研究进展及展望

自然资源是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础。资源短缺是我国社会经济发展的重要限制因素,未来这一矛盾将会更加突出。资源经济学是研究经济发展与资源开发、利用、保护、分配和管理之间关系的一门综合学科。加强资源经济与世界资源的研究,对实现我国可持续发展具有重要的战略意义。为适应国家发展的需求,我国在国内资源与资源科学领域研究已取得显著进展。同时,积极关注和研究世界资源问题,并取得了较大成就。这些研究为资源经济学发展提出新的需求,积累了丰厚的研究资料、实践经验、研究方法以及系统的理论准备,促进了资源经济的研究及学科不断成长与发展,并为国家发展做出重要贡献。论文着重分析资源经济学和世界资源的研究进展,对我国资源经济和世界资源研究进展及其成果进行总结和评析,对我国资源经济和世界资源研究发展趋势进行展望,提出新时期主要的研究方向和重点领域。     

营口开发区城市发展的环保建议

科学的发展观要求以人为本，社会发展应具备全面、协调、可持续性。从环保角度对在新的历史机遇期，营口开发区应如何拓展发展思路提出应尽快确立创建“环保模范城市”的目标、普及城市环境作为资产来经营理念、严守“低污染、低能耗、高科技含量”的项目引进原则、大力推行ISO14000环管体系认证工作及提高市民环保意识等几点建议，对开发区的持续发展具有保障和促进作用。     

Beyond opportunity costs: who bears the implementation costs of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation?

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) in developing countries is based on the premise that conserving tropical forests is a cost-effective way to reduce carbon emissions and therefore can be fully funded by international actors with obligations or interests in reducing emissions. However, concerns have repeatedly been raised about whether stakeholders in REDD+ host countries will actually end up bearing the costs of REDD+. Most prior analyses of the costs of REDD+ have focused on the opportunity costs of foregone alternative uses of forest land. We draw on a pan-tropical study of 22 subnational REDD+ initiatives in five countries to explore patterns in implementation costs, including which types of organizations are involved and which are sharing the costs of implementing REDD+. We find that many organizations involved in the implementation of REDD+, particularly at the subnational level and in the public sector, are bearing implementation costs not covered by the budgets of the REDD+ initiatives. To sustain this level of cost-sharing, REDD+ must be designed to deliver local as well as global forest benefits.     

美国对外农业投资格局演变及其影响因素——兼论“一带一路”农业合作

对外农业投资是“一带一路”倡议的重要内容,研究美国对外农业投资特征,既可总结先行之国的发展经验,也可响应并适应主要竞争对手的投资行为,为充分利用两个市场、两种资源提供科学依据。本文立足对外直接投资理论,采用Logistic模型与面板数据分析方法,研究了2000-2018年美国对外农业投资的时空格局、影响因素及其对“一带一路”农业合作的启示。结果表明:（1）美国对外农业投资以食品加工等产前产后环节为主,主要分布于西欧等发达国家以及墨西哥、巴西等地理临近的发展中国家。（2）美国对外农业投资呈现显著的市场导向特征,同时也受到地理与文化距离、国家治理等东道国因素的影响。（3）对比中美对外农业投资特征,结合当前国际经贸形势与中国农业国际合作目标,建议中国进一步优化农业产业链布局,在促进实现联合国可持续发展目标的同时,提高中国在全球粮安领域的定价权与渠道把控力;进一步深耕既有对外农业投资市场,在降低地缘竞争压力的同时,充分挖掘潜在市场机会;关注“一带一路”沿线国家的农业技术需求,保证投资目标与东道国的投资需求相协调;尤需解决中国对外农业投资面临的文化与体制差异较大等现实问题,提高“一带一路”农业合作项目的可持续性。     

盘锦市海洋功能区划研究

在全面分析盘锦市海洋资源特点及开发利用中存在的问题，及充分考虑盘锦市未来社会发展需求的基础上，对盘锦海域进行了科学的功能分区，并确定了各功能区的主导功能。这将为盘锦市合理开发利用海洋资源，实现海洋综合管理提供服务，同时也有利于地区经济的持续发展。     

建设内陆水体污染遥感监测信息数据库

建设监测数据库是现代监测方法和手段的延伸,可为环境管理提供有力支撑。遥感监测信息数据库的建立和应用,能为抚顺市水体污染卫星遥感监测示范系统提供可靠的数据分析、存储及查询支持,对水环境管理和饮用水源的保护具有重要的现实意义。根据数据库技术的发展和水库及河流各种污染物信息量大的特点,该数据库有适用应用软件支撑,并有数据输入、修改、删除、查询、输出、处理及生成各种图表等功能。笔者对建设内陆水体污染遥感信息数据库有关技术要求进行了探讨。      

Optimal subsidies for distributed photovoltaic generation: Maximizing net policy benefits

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation is a promising pathway for reducing carbon emission and meeting energy demands in electricity sector. Subsidies are essential to accelerate its deployment. This paper aims to study the optimal subsidy levels for distributed PV generation from the perspective of maximizing the net policy benefits (environmental and economic) by applying the principal–agent theory, which is a commonly used method of analyzing government incentive issues. Based on a detailed analysis of asymmetric information and of benefit conflicts between the government (the principal) and the investor (the agent), the optimal subsidy principal–agent model is established, in which the investor’s preference toward distributed PV generation is asymmetric and is described by a random variable. The equivalent model is then presented to obtain the optimal solutions, and a numerical example is provided to test the effectiveness of the model and to illustrate the implications of the solutions. The results show that high net policy benefits are directly influenced by a high investor preference. This emphasizes the importance for the government of improving the investor’s preference level and of eliminating asymmetric information to develop distributed PV generation and reduce subsidy costs. Additionally, lowering the market risk and enlarging the overflow value of distributed PV generation both contribute to subsidy cost savings. This paper offers policy makers an effective subsidy scheme to accelerate distributed PV generation development and will also be a useful reference for government to subsidize other renewable power systems to mitigate global climate and energy changes.