A Tool for Modeling the Winter Oxygen Depletion Rate in Arctic Lakes1

Abstract: Many arctic lakes freeze completely in winter. The few that retain unfrozen water for the entire winter period serve as overwintering fish habitat. In addition to serving as fish habitat, water in arctic lakes is needed for industrial and domestic use. Permits for water extraction seek to maximize water use without impacting dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and endangering fish habitat. The relationship between lake volume, winter DO budget, and extraction of water through pumping has historically not been well understood. A management model that could estimate end‐of‐winter DO would improve our understanding of the potential impacts of different management strategies. Using under‐ice DO measurements (November to April) taken from two natural lakes and one flooded gravel mine on the North Slope of Alaska, a physically based model was developed to predict end‐of‐winter DO concentration, water‐column DO profiles, and winter oxygen depletion rate in arctic lakes during periods of ice cover. Comparisons between the measured and model‐predicted oxygen profiles in the three study lakes suggest that the depth‐based DO modeling tool presented herein can be used to adequately predict the amount of DO available in arctic lakes throughout winter.     

Effects of Water Withdrawal From Ice‐Covered Lakes on Oxygen,Temperature, and Fish1

Abstract: In northern regions, large volumes of water are needed for activities such as winter road construction. Such withdrawals, particularly from small lakes, can reduce oxygen concentrations and water levels, potentially affecting aquatic organisms. Withdrawal limits have been developed by regulatory agencies, but are largely theoretical. Water withdrawal thresholds were tested in two small lakes by removing 10% and 20% of their respective under‐ice volumes and comparing oxygen parameters, temperature, over‐wintering habitat, and northern pike (Esox lucius) abundance to reference conditions. Because of a milder winter, oxygen parameters were elevated in reference lakes in the period following withdrawal compared to the prewithdrawal period. The 10% withdrawal resulted in a ?0.2 m shift in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l in that lake, but had no effect on total volume‐weighted oxygen, or volume of over‐wintering habitat. In contrast, the 20% withdrawal caused 0.7 m reduction in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l compared to the previous year, a 26% decline in the volume‐weighted oxygen concentration, and a 23% reduction in the volume of over‐wintering habitat compared to prewithdrawal conditions. Water temperatures were slightly (≤ 10%) colder in the upper strata in the year following the withdrawal in both withdrawal and reference lakes. Northern pike abundance was not impacted by water withdrawals in either of the lakes. The results of this study show that the effects of water withdrawal on the parameters investigated reflected the characteristics of the lakes, and would therefore be expected to vary from lake to lake. Policy development to mitigate impacts must therefore reflect the site‐specific nature of water withdrawal.     

A Review of Water Level Fluctuations on Aquatic Biota With an Emphasis on Fishes in Ice‐Covered Lakes1

Abstract: The effects of water level fluctuations on fish and other aquatic biota, with an emphasis on winter water withdrawal in northern regions is reviewed. Water demands for population growth and development are adding pressure on water reserves, particularly when coupled with changing climatic conditions. Water level fluctuations can have adverse effects on the environment, most notably to hydrologic and biotic processes ranging in magnitude from the micro‐scale to landscape level. Water level management of lakes and reservoirs can affect all forms of aquatic biota. The severity of effect is dependant on the magnitude, duration and timing of the fluctuation, and the species exposed. In northwestern Canada and northern Alaska, water is withdrawn from water bodies to construct ice‐roads and other winter based developments. Biota in small, isolated water bodies are particularly sensitive to reductions in winter water levels. Water withdrawals can reduce the oxygen available to overwintering fish, while reduced water levels can reduce habitat for fish and furbearers, and freeze littoral areas killing plants, invertebrates, and fish eggs. Regulatory winter water withdrawal thresholds have been developed in the Northwest Territories and Alaska and continue to be refined as new data becomes available. The use of thresholds can help minimize or avoid negative impacts to the environment, particularly fish, from winter water withdrawal activities. Many different factors may influence the effect that winter water withdrawal has on a water body, such as basin shape, substrate and location. More research is warranted to better understand the linkages between anthropogenic and natural water level fluctuations and their combined effect on aquatic ecosystems. A general decision support system is proposed for minimizing risk to aquatic life from winter water withdrawal activities.     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.     

Of Small Streams and Great Lakes: Integrating Tributaries to Understand the Ecology and Biogeochemistry of Lake Superior

Lake Superior receives inputs from approximately 2,800 tributaries that provide nutrients and dissolved organic matter (DOM) to the nearshore zone of this oligotrophic lake. Here, we review the magnitude and timing of tributary export and plume formation in Lake Superior, how these patterns and interactions may shift with global change, and how emerging technologies can be used to better characterize tributary–lake linkages. Peak tributary export occurs during snowmelt‐driven spring freshets, with additional pulses during rain‐driven storms. Instream processing and transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) can be rapid but varies seasonally in magnitude. Tributary plumes with elevated DOC concentration, higher turbidity, and distinct DOM character can be detected in the nearshore during times of high runoff, but plumes can be quickly transported and diluted by in‐lake currents and mixing. Understanding the variability in size and load of these tributary plumes, how they are transported within the lake, and how long they persist may be best addressed with environmental sensors and remote sensing using autonomous and unmanned vehicles. The connections between Lake Superior and its tributaries are vulnerable to climate change, and understanding and predicting future changes to these valuable freshwater resources will require a nuanced and detailed consideration of tributary inputs and interactions in time and space.     

Arctic Lake Physical Processes and Regimes with Implications for Winter Water Availability and Management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.     

Lake Temperature and Ice Cover Regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated Monitoring,Remote Sensing,and Modeling1

Arp, C.D., B.M. Jones, M. Whitman, A. Larsen, and F.E. Urban, 2010. Lake Temperature and Ice Cover Regimes in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic: Integrated Monitoring, Remote Sensing, and Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 777-791. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00451.x Abstract: Lake surface regimes are fundamental attributes of lake ecosystems and their interaction with the land and atmosphere. High latitudes may be particularly sensitive to climate change, however, adequate baselines for these lakes are often lacking. In this study, we couple monitoring, remote sensing, and modeling techniques to generate baseline datasets of lake surface temperature and ice cover in the Alaskan Subarctic and Arctic. No detectable trends were observed during this study period, but a number of interesting patterns were noted among lakes and between regions. The largest Arctic lake was relatively unresponsive to air temperature, while the largest Subarctic lake was very responsive likely because it is fed by glacial runoff. Mean late summer water temperatures were higher than air temperatures with differences ranging from 1.7 to 5.4°C in Subarctic lakes and from 2.4 to 3.2°C in Arctic lakes. The warmest mean summer water temperature in both regions was in 2004, with the exception of Subarctic glacially fed lake that was highest in 2005. Ice-out timing had high coherence within regions and years, typically occurring in late May in Subarctic and in early-July in Arctic lakes. Ice-on timing was more dependent on lake size and depth, often varying among lakes within a region. Such analyses provide an important baseline of lake surface regimes at a time when there is increasing interest in high-latitude water ecosystems and resources during an uncertain climate future.     

Bottomfast Ice Mapping and the Measurement of Ice Thickness on Tundra Lakes Using C‐Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Remote Sensing1

Abstract: Industrial activity in Canada’s north is increasing, placing demands on the use of water from lakes to build ice roads. Winter water withdrawal from these lakes has the potential to impact overwintering fish. Removal of water from small lakes can decrease oxygen and habitat available to fish. To address this issue, a protocol has been developed by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans outlining water withdrawal thresholds. Bathymetric surveys are the traditional method to determine lake depth, but are costly given the remoteness of northern lakes. This paper investigates the use of satellite C‐band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) remote sensing technology as a potential alternative or complement to traditional survey methods. Previous research has shown that a SAR can detect the transition from grounded to floating ice on lakes, or if a lake is completely frozen. Grounded ice has a dark signature while floating ice appears very bright in contrast. Similar results were observed for the datasets acquired in the study area. This suggests that lakes that freeze completely to the bottom can be identified using SAR. Such water bodies would not be viable fish overwintering habitat and can therefore be used as water sources without thresholds necessary. However, attempts to accurately calculate the depth of the ice at the grounded‐floating ice boundary using bathymetric profiles acquired in the summer and lake ice thickness measurements from a reference lake near Inuvik proved to be unreliable.     

Factors Affecting Sediment Oxygen Demand Dynamics in Blackwater Streams of Georgia’s Coastal Plain1

Abstract: Sediment oxygen demand (SOD) is believed to be an important process affecting dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in blackwater streams of the southeastern coastal plain. Because very few data on SOD are available, it is common for modelers to take SOD values from the literature for use with DO models. In this study, SOD was measured in seven blackwater streams of the Suwannee River Basin within the Georgia coastal plain for between August 2004 and April 2005. SOD was measured using four in situ chambers and was found to vary on average between 0.1 and 2.3 g O₂/m/day across the seven study sites throughout the study period. SOD was found to vary significantly between the watersheds within the Suwannee River Basin. However, land use was not found to be the driving force behind SOD values. Statistical analyses did find significant interaction between land use and watersheds suggesting that an intrinsically different factor in each of the watersheds may be affecting SOD and the low DO concentrations. Further research is needed to identify the factors driving SOD dynamics in the blackwater streams of Georgia’s coastal plain. Results from this study will be used by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources – Environmental Protection Division as model input data for the development and evaluation of DO total maximum daily loads in the Georgia coastal plain.     

Spatiotemporal Variability in Water Sources Controls Chemical and Physical Properties of a Semi‐arid Urban River System

We conducted synoptic surveys over three seasons in one year to evaluate the variability in water sources and geochemistry of an urban river with complex water infrastructure in the state of Utah. Using stable isotopes of river water (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) within a Bayesian mixing model framework and a separate hydrologic mass balance approach, we quantified both the proportional inputs and magnitude of discharge associated with “natural” (lake, groundwater, and tributary inputs) and “engineered” (effluent and canal inflows) sources. The relative importance of these major contributors to streamflow varied both spatially and seasonally. Spatiotemporal patterns of dissolved oxygen, temperature, pH, calcium, chloride, nitrate, and orthophosphate indicated seasonal shifts in dominant sources of river water played an important role in determining water quality. We show although urban rivers are clearly influenced by novel water sources created by water infrastructure, they continue to reflect the imprint of “natural” water sources, including diffuse groundwater. Resource managers thus may need to account for the quantity of both surface waters and also historically overlooked groundwater inputs to address water quality concerns in urban rivers.     

Geospatial and Temporal Analysis of a 20‐Year Record of Landsat‐Based Water Clarity in Minnesota's 10,000 Lakes

A large 20‐year database on water clarity for all Minnesota lakes ≥8 ha was analyzed statistically for spatial distributions, temporal trends, and relationships with in‐lake and watershed factors that potentially affect lake clarity. The database includes Landsat‐based water clarity estimates expressed in terms of Secchi depth (SD_Landsat), an integrative measure of water quality, for more than 10,500 lakes for time periods centered around 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005. Minnesota lake clarity is lower (more turbid) in the south and southwest and clearer in the north and northeast; this pattern is evident at the levels of individual lakes and ecoregions. Temporal trends in clarity were detected in ~11% of the lakes: 4.6% had improving clarity and 6.2% had decreasing clarity. Ecoregions in southern and western Minnesota, where agriculture is the predominant land use, had higher percentages of lakes with decreasing clarity than the rest of the state, and small and shallow lakes had higher percentages of decreasing clarity trends than large and deep lakes. The mean SD_Landsat statewide remained stable from 1985 to 2005 but decreased in ecoregions dominated by agricultural land use. Deep lakes had higher clarity than shallow lakes statewide and for lakes grouped by land cover. SD_Landsat decreased as the percentage of agriculture and/or urban area increased at county and catchment levels and it increased with increasing forested land.     

A Hydrological Model for Predicting the Effects of Dams on the Shoreline Vegetation of Lakes and Reservoirs

/ The species richness of shoreline vegetation of unregulated lakes in Nova Scotia, Canada, is known to increase as a function of catchment area, a topographic variable governing water level fluctuations. Predictions based on catchment area however, fail to account for richness patterns at the margins of lakes enlarged by dams. Here, we compare the vegetation and hydrological regimes of regulated and unregulated systems. Hydrological regimes of regulated systems deviated from natural systems of similar catchment area by being either hypovariable or hypervariable for both within-year and among-year fluctuations in water level. Plant communities of dammed systems were less diverse, contained more exotic species, and were, with one exception, devoid of rare shoreline herbs. Data from "recovering," or previously dammed systems indicated that shoreline communities can be restored upon return of the appropriate hydrological regime. Using observed within-year and among-year water level fluctuation data, we propose a general model for the maintenance or restoration of diverse herbaceous wetlands on shorelines of temperate lakes or reservoirs. Managers can manipulate the within-year water level variation within prescribed limits (1-2 m), while ensuring that among-year variation (SD of summer levels) is less than 25% of within-year variation. This preliminary model is based on data from low-fertility, temperate lakes in river systems. To calibrate the model, plant community data from other regions are needed, as are long-term water-level data for unregulated lakes, data which are essential but largely lacking in many areas.KEY WORDS: Catchment area; Regulated lakes; Shoreline restoration; Rare plants; Exotic plants; Diversity     

Differences in Dissolved Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Responses to Storm‐Event and Ground‐Water Conditions in a Forested,Glaciated Watershed in Western New York1

Abstract: Differences in the storm‐event responses of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) in streamflow and ground water were evaluated for a glaciated forested watershed in western New York. Eight to ten storm events with varying rainfall amounts, intensities, and antecedent moisture conditions were studied for three catchments (1.6, 3.4, and 696 ha) over a three‐year period (2003‐2005). Concentrations of DOC in streamflow exiting the catchments were significantly higher for storm events following a dry period, whereas no similar response was observed for DON. Highest DON concentrations in streamflow were typically associated with storm events following wet antecedent moisture conditions. In addition to antecedent moisture conditions, DOC concentrations were also positively correlated with precipitation amounts, while DON did not reveal a consistent pattern. Streamwater and ground‐water concentrations of DOC during storm events were also strongly correlated with riparian ground‐water depths but a similar relationship was not observed for DON. Ground‐water DON concentrations were also more variable than DOC. We hypothesized that the differences in DOC and DON responses stemmed from the differences in catchment sources of these solutes. This study suggests that while DOC and DON are intrinsically linked as components of dissolved organic matter, their dynamics and exports from watersheds may be regulated by a different set of mechanisms and factors. Identifying these differences is critical for developing more reliable and robust models for transport of dissolved organic matter.     

Nutrient Sources and Transport in the Missouri River Basin,with Emphasis on the Effects of Irrigation and Reservoirs1

Brown, Juliane B., Lori A. Sprague, and Jean A. Dupree, 2011. Nutrient Sources and Transport in the Missouri River Basin, With Emphasis on the Effects of Irrigation and Reservoirs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1034‐1060. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00584.x Abstract: SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were used to relate instream nutrient loads to sources and factors influencing the transport of nutrients in the Missouri River Basin. Agricultural inputs from fertilizer and manure were the largest nutrient sources throughout a large part of the basin, although atmospheric and urban inputs were important sources in some areas. Sediment mobilized from stream channels was a source of phosphorus in medium and larger streams. Irrigation on agricultural land was estimated to decrease the nitrogen load reaching the Mississippi River by as much as 17%, likely as a result of increased anoxia and denitrification in the soil zone. Approximately 16% of the nitrogen load and 33% of the phosphorus load that would have otherwise reached the Mississippi River was retained in reservoirs and lakes throughout the basin. Nearly half of the total attenuation occurred in the eight largest water bodies. Unlike the other major tributary basins, nearly the entire instream nutrient load leaving the outlet of the Platte and Kansas River subbasins reached the Mississippi River. Most of the larger reservoirs and lakes in the Platte River subbasin are upstream of the major sources, whereas in the Kansas River subbasin, most of the source inputs are in the southeast part of the subbasin where characteristics of the area and proximity to the Missouri River facilitate delivery of nutrients to the Mississippi River.     

Effects of Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in China During 1900‐20001

Abstract: China has experienced a rapid land‐use/cover change (LUCC) during the 20th Century, and this process is expected to continue in the future. How LUCC has affected water resources across China, however, remains uncertain due to the complexity of LUCC‐water interactions. In this study, we used an integrated Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in conjunction with spatial data of LUCC to estimate the LUCC effects on the magnitude, spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and water yield across China. Through comparisons of DLEM results with other model simulations, field observations, and river discharge data, we found that DLEM model can adequately catch the spatial and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes. Our simulation results demonstrate that LUCC led to substantial changes in ET, runoff, and water yield in most of the China’s river basins during the 20th Century. The temporal and spatial patterns varied significantly across China. The largest change occurred during the second half century when almost all of the river basins had a decreasing trend in ET and an increasing trend in water yield and runoff, in contrast to the inclinations of ET and declinations of water yield in major river basins, such as Pearl river basin, Yangtze river basin, and Yellow river basin during the first half century. The increased water yield and runoff indicated alleviated water deficiency in China in the late 20th Century, but the increased peak flow might make the runoff difficult to be held by reservoirs. The continuously increasing ET and decreasing water yield in Continental river basin, Southwest river basin, and Songhua and Liaohe river basin implied regional water deficiency. Our study in China indicates that deforestation averagely increased ET by 138 mm/year but decreased water yield by the same amount and that reforestation averagely decreased ET by 422 mm/year since most of deforested land was converted to paddy land or irrigated cropland. In China, cropland‐related land transformation is the dominant anthropogenic force affecting water resources during the 20th Century. On national average, cropland expansion was estimated to increase ET by 182 mm/year while cropland abandonment decreased ET by 379 mm/year. Our simulation results indicate that urban sprawl generally decreased ET and increased water yield. Cropland managements (fertilization and irrigation) significantly increased ET by 98 mm/year. To better understand LUCC effects on China’s water resources, it is needed to take into account the interactions of LUCC with other environmental changes such as climate and atmospheric composition.     

DIN Retention‐Transport Through Four Hydrologically Connected Zones in a Headwater Catchment of the Upper Mississippi River1

Abstract: Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) retention‐transport through a headwater catchment was synthesized from studies encompassing four distinct hydrologic zones of the Shingobee River Headwaters near the origin of the Mississippi River. The hydrologic zones included: (1) hillslope ground water (ridge to bankside riparian); (2) alluvial riparian ground water; (3) ground water discharged through subchannel sediments (hyporheic zone); and (4) channel surface water. During subsurface hillslope transport through Zone 1, DIN, primarily nitrate, decreased from ～3 mg‐N/l to <0.1 mg‐N/l. Ambient seasonal nitrate:chloride ratios in hillslope flow paths indicated both dilution and biotic processing caused nitrate loss. Biologically available organic carbon controlled biotic nitrate retention during hillslope transport. In the alluvial riparian zone (Zone 2) biologically available organic carbon controlled nitrate depletion although processing of both ambient and amended nitrate was faster during the summer than winter. In the hyporheic zone (Zone 3) and stream surface water (Zone 4) DIN retention was primarily controlled by temperature. Perfusion core studies using hyporheic sediment indicated sufficient organic carbon in bed sediments to retain ground water DIN via coupled nitrification‐denitrification. Numerical simulations of seasonal hyporheic sediment nitrification‐denitrification rates from perfusion cores adequately predicted surface water ammonium but not nitrate when compared to 5 years of monthly field data (1989‐93). Mass balance studies in stream surface water indicated proportionally higher summer than winter N retention. Watershed DIN retention was effective during summer under the current land use of intermittently grazed pasture. However, more intensive land use such as row crop agriculture would decrease nitrate retention efficiency and increase loads to surface water. Understanding DIN retention capacity throughout the system, including special channel features such as sloughs, wetlands and floodplains that provide surface water‐ground water connectivity, will be required to develop effective nitrate management strategies.     

Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells1

Johnson, R.L., B.R. Clark, M.K. Landon, L.J. Kauffman, and S.M. Eberts, 2011. Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):588‐596. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00526.x Abstract: Wells screened across multiple aquifers can provide pathways for the movement of surprisingly large volumes of groundwater to confined aquifers used for public water supply (PWS). Using a simple numerical model, we examine the impact of several pumping scenarios on leakage from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer and conclude that a single inactive multi‐aquifer well can contribute nearly 10% of total PWS well flow over a wide range of pumping rates. This leakage can occur even when the multi‐aquifer well is more than a kilometer from the PWS well. The contribution from multi‐aquifer wells may be greater under conditions where seasonal pumping (e.g., irrigation) creates large, widespread downward hydraulic gradients between aquifers. Under those conditions, water can continue to leak down a multi‐aquifer well from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer even when those multi‐aquifer wells are actively pumped. An important implication is that, if an unconfined aquifer is contaminated, multi‐aquifer wells can increase the vulnerability of a confined‐aquifer PWS well.     

The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

陆地生态系统CO_2与水热通量的研究进展

陆地生态系统CO2和水热通量研究,一直是全球气候变化研究的热点与难点问题。它对认识生态系统变化规律,预测全球气候变化趋势,评价生态系统的碳固定具有重要的科学意义。涡度相关法被认为是目前测定CO2、水热通量的最可靠方法。国外学者应用此方法解决了均匀下垫面假设下不同类型生态系统的CO2、水热通量的计算问题。在查阅前人研究成果的基础上,分析了陆地生态系统用涡度相关法在能量通量研究中的地位和重要性,评述了生态系统水热平衡的研究意义,总结了我国包括森林、草地、荒漠、农田等不同类型生态系统CO2、水热通量方面最新的研究进展,并对我国生态系统通量未来的研究策略及数据管理提出了建议和展望。