公众参与应对气候变化 让数据发声

<正>应对气候变化,需要整合和应用多学科研究成果以最大程度地使区域和全球获益。今天,对气候变化的研究已经超越了自然科学的范畴,社会科学的视角被引入并发挥着越来越重要的作用。其中,气候传播的关注重点是如何使气候变化的科学信息更准确、高效地传播到目标受众,从而调动更多利益相关方一起参与到应对气候变化的实际行动中。考虑到占人口绝大多数的社会公众对应对气候变化成效发     

联合国警告气候变化的影响“不可逆转”

11月16日，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布了最后一部份气候变化报告，警告说，全球变暖可能带来长远的、不可逆转的影响。报告指出，人类活动将导致“突然的或者不可逆转的气候变化和影响”。报告内容涵盖了气候变化的证据，气候变化对目前以及将来可能造成的影响，和如何阻止这些危险发生的各种观点。IPCC的专家们一致同意，过去数十年来地球温度的升高主要出自人类活动而非自然因素。气候变化的影响已经显现出来。     

应对气候挑战：“向左？向右？”——发展与气候变化

几年前,对于全球的公众来说,气候变化一词恐怕还只是一个气象或环保的专业名词,没有多少公众对此熟知或关心,甚至在业界对它的科学确定性也仍有怀疑。如今,气候变化不仅被人们了解、关心,它早已成为了政界、商界、甚至是百姓的生活“谈资”,更是成为媒体“热捧”的对象和“关键词”。     

“全球变暖”,世纪之争

正关于气候异常的争论从未休止,在刚刚落下帷幕的联合国气候大会华沙站上,世界各国自然也免不了一翻唇枪舌战。事实上,对于这一话题的博弈除了国家层面的利益之争,科学界的争议同样如火如荼。1988年,在当时还是参议员的小艾伯特·戈尔的大力推动下,联合国建立了政府间气候异常变化问题研究小组,并组织20个国家多达1500名专家起草了一份宏篇科学报告。报告     

“带体温”的“绿媒体”:环保宣传中手机的利用

手机媒体的独特性使之不仅覆盖了极高数量的受众群,而且呈现出高强度的受众粘性,被人们形象地称为带体温的媒体。面对新兴媒体的出现,环保宣传遇到了新的机遇,同时也面临着挑战。要想借手机媒体之力,强环保宣传之效,环保宣传的手段和形式就都应做出创造性的变化。只有发掘手机媒体自身的独特性,让环保宣传信息与受众的媒介使用形态相对位,才能使得面向公众的环保宣传工作真正实现新的突破。     

我们需要怎样的环境传播

中国人对环境问题的思考从未像今日这般专注,其中环境传播功不可没。随着环境形势和环境问题的日益严峻和复杂,环境传播也在不断遭遇新的问题。下一步,环境传播怎么走?     

全球变暖植被“北侵”,30年北移4至6纬度

近日,由美国航天局资助的一个国际研究小组在新一期《自然—气候变化》杂志上报告称,他们的研究员借助地面和卫星观测数据以及17种气候模型,分析了地球北方高纬度地区气温和植被生长间的关系。结果显示,由于温室气体排放增加、全球变暖,使原本被冰雪覆盖的北方高纬度地区气温持续升高,导致这一地区近年来不断被绿色植物侵占,超过900万平方公里的面积变绿,一些曾是苔原的地区如今已被树林和灌     

试论我国企业碳信息披露存在的问题及对策

正碳信息披露是企业碳排放管理的有效手段在全球变暖的大背景下,发展低碳经济已成为各国政府的共识。在资源稀缺和限制碳排放的双重约束下,企业亦调整自身发展战略,减少对日益稀缺的能源和资源的依赖,追求可持续增长。企业在日常经营活动中,在原材料供应、生产加工、仓储物流、营销、产品回收与处置等各环节,都会排放大量的二氧化碳,由此加剧了温室效应,这反过来又会制约企业的未来发展和竞争力的提升。企业     

Climate vulnerability index - measure of climate change vulnerability to communities: a case of rural Lower Himalaya,India

Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) is being proposed to assess climate change vulnerability of communities with a case study. The index consists of household parameters of all the three dimensions of vulnerability such as Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capability. Exposure is defined by ‘Natural disaster and Climate variability’, however Sensitivity by ‘Health’, Food’, and ‘Water’ and Adaptive Capability by ‘Socio-demographic profile’, ‘Livelihood strategies’, and ‘Social networks’. Respective parameters were based on the peers and literature. The CVI vulnerable status ranges from high (0) to low (1). Household questionnaire survey was undertaken from two regions namely, near to district (NDH) and away to district (ADH), in Srinagar, Uttrakhand, India. Data for desired parameters for CVI was collected from 50 randomly selected households. Data were aggregated using a composite index and differential vulnerabilities were compared. High vulnerability was observed for livelihood strategies, food and natural disaster for ADH households, and health and water for NDH households. It was found that the adaptive capability and sensitivity of ADH households was higher than NDH, however, exposure realization was similar in both the regions. The CVI was 0.69 and 0.64 for NDH and ADH, respectively, suggests high vulnerability to NDH households. This pragmatic CVI approach may be used to assess and monitor vulnerability under various stress condition, and/or evaluate potential program/ policy effectiveness in various data-scarce regions by comparing various anticipated scenarios with baseline. Further, the result obtained by index may have implications for developing adaptation or coping strategies to the region.     

贵州七星洞石笋文石-方解石序列记录的气候变化

文石-方解石型石笋的矿物相变化可能与气候环境变化存在联系,但中国季风区有关此类石笋的古气候研究比较匮乏.本文对七星洞一个文石-方解石型石笋开展了岩石学鉴定和氧、碳同位素组成分析,发现其文石层的出现与δ18O值、δ13C值的显著偏正存在联系,通过对文石形成的可能机制和δ18O、δ13C值变化的一般规律进行综合分析,验证了...     

Learning settings to face climate change

Meeting the manifold challenges connected to climate change makes high demands on individual competencies. To prepare actors for those challenges learning settings are needed in higher education that are suitable for that goal. A theoretical framework for relevant key competencies can be found in the discourse of Education for Sustainable Development (ESD). In this paper we introduce and discuss two learning settings that employ adapted sustainability science approaches: the syndrome approach and scenario analysis. Both approaches are discussed with reference to their didactic goals to foster the acquisition of the corresponding competencies. The usefulness of these two approaches in creating appropriate learning settings is demonstrated in empirical studies.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Assessing agricultural systems vulnerability to climate change to inform adaptation planning: an application in Khorezm,Uzbekistan

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. The current vulnerability assessments through traditional fragmented sectoral methods are insufficient to capture the effects on complex agricultural systems. Therefore, the traditional methods need to be replaced by integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to propose a holistic vulnerability assessment method for agricultural systems. By aggregating both agro-ecological and socio-economic information, we develop an agricultural systems vulnerability index (ASVI) which allows for (i) a classification of geographical units according to their vulnerability level, (ii) an identification of key determinants of vulnerability for each unit and (iii) an assessment of adaptation policy scenarios considering their effects on the sustainability of the analysed systems. The proposed method is applied in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan—a representative irrigated agricultural region in the lower Amu Darya river basin. A decision support tool is used to facilitate multi-criteria decision analysis, including the computation of the index and performing sensitivity analysis of the results. The assessment for Khorezm reveals significant spatial differences of vulnerability levels due to a variation of contributing factors, e.g. natural resources, water productivity, rural-urban ratio. It reveals also that feasible land and water management policies could reduce the vulnerability in Khorezm, particularly in the districts with the poorest agro-ecological conditions. Overall, the proposed method could support national and local authorities in the identification of sustainable adaptation policies for the agriculture sector.     

Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

This article examines farmers’ livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing.     

Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China

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Adaptation to climate change in the Northeast United States: opportunities, processes, constraints

Scientific evidence accumulating over the past decade documents that climate change impacts are already being experienced in the US Northeast. Policy-makers and resource managers must now prepare for the impacts from climate change and support implementing such plans on the ground. In this paper we argue that climate change challenges the region to maintain its economic viability, but also holds some opportunities that may enhance economic development, human well-being, and social justice. To face these challenges and seize these opportunities effectively we must better understand adaptation capacities, opportunities and constraints, the social processes of adaptation, approaches for engaging critical players and the broader public in informed debate, decision-making, and conscious interventions in the adaptation process. This paper offers a preliminary qualitative assessment, in which we emphasize the need for (1) assessing the feasibility and side effects of technological adaptation options, (2) increasing available resources and improving equitable access to them, (3) increasing institutional flexibility, fit, cooperation and decision-making authority, (4) using and enhancing human and social capital, (5) improving access to insurance and other risk-spreading mechanisms, and (6) linking scientific information more effectively to decision-makers while engaging the public. Throughout, we explore these issues through illustrative sectoral examples. We conclude with a number of principles that may guide the preparation of future adaptation plans for the Northeast.     

A multiple timescales approach to assess urgency in adaptation to climate change with an application to the tourism industry

As climate change adaptation is increasingly discussed and becoming a mainstream concept, different types of users are asking themselves if and when they should develop an adaptation strategy, often not knowing where to begin. Climate experts, on the other hand, have access to an enormous amount of data that could be useful to users but often do not know how to translate it into something practical. Both users and experts can be linked through two timescales, the system lifespan and climate vulnerability. While the system lifespan relies on the user’s estimation of his planning timeframe, the climate vulnerability is estimated from climate model projections and observations. We propose a simple tool to relate user and climate expert knowledge by combining the two timescales. To be reliable, the interconnection implies a dialogue to first identify what sensitive climate variable will impact the system and subsequently the extent of the impact. Climate data can then be used to identify, with the use of a simple graph, how sensitive a system is likely to be and help users position themselves about the urgency of adaptation. The concept has been successfully presented and applied to the tourism industry, notably the ski industry, which is showcased in this paper.     

Climate change adaptation in the Sahel

Climate change adaptation now occupies central stage on the agenda of most environmental initiatives in Africa. Our current understanding on the state of adaptation is limited, however, both globally and in Africa in particular. This study examines the status of adaptation in the Sahel by reviewing the primary peer review literature that reports concrete climate change adaptation actions. Based on an analysis of 70 peer review papers that document 414 discrete adaptations, we create a snap shot of adaptations developed between 1975 and 2015, and also calculate the percentages of adaptation. The results show that from a country to country perspective, Kenya has the highest number of reported adaptation actions (75 or 18.1%). The percentages indicate that the adaptive capacity of the entire study area is generally low for all the countries being that the highest country-level percentage is recorded in Kenya and it is 18%. Regionally, West Africa has more adaptation actions (261 or 63%) when compared to other regions of the Sahel. Regional level percentages suggest a higher level of adaptation at the regional level being that the percentage falls within the high scale range. The most commonly used adaptation actions reported are income diversification and water harnessing respectively. When categorized, technically related adaptation actions dominate the adaptation charts. The decade 2008–2016 recorded the highest number of adaptations (65.2%). Adaptation actions are also reported to be triggered by climatic and non-climatic drivers which both record high frequencies but the climatic drivers (98%) of adaptation are slightly dominant relative to the non-climatic drivers (95%). These results should be viewed as proxies of climate change adaptation as much information may be found in grey literature and non-peer review national communications which are left out here because of their relative low standardization and acceptability due to the absence of peer review.