Study of the severity of industrial accidents with hazardous substances by historical analysis

This paper studies the levels of risk in industrial facilities where hazardous substances are used, evaluating the influence of certain variables on the severity of the accidents that have occurred until now. It makes use of the incidents recorded in the July 2001 version of the MHIDAS database. This study reveals that accidents in developed countries are less severe than those that occur in other geographical areas. Also, it establishes the influence on the severity (number of fatalities) of this kind of incident of certain factors: the type of incident and the type and amount of substance involved. Lastly, the extent to which current facilities comply to the risk tolerance criteria in various countries is evaluated with regards to incidents involving explosions.     

Society's aggression level as a predictor of traffic fatality rate

This research investigated the relationship of violence/aggression and other societal variables to traffic accidents. In the first of two studies, multiple regression was applied to 1977 data from each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Traffic fatalities per registered vehicle was the dependent variable. The independent variables were homicide rate, suicide rate, fatality rate from other causes, unemployment rate, personal income, density of physicians, alcohol consumption, motor vehicles per capita, road mileage per vehicle, sex and age distribution of drivers, and attained education. The main finding was that the homicide rate (but not the suicide rate) predicted the traffic fatality rate; additional significant predictors were the proportion of young drivers and the fatality rate from non-motor-vehicle accidents. The two primary predictors (homicides and young drivers) accounted for 64 % of the variance of traffic fatalities. In the second study, validation was performed by using the 1977 regression coefficients to estimate 1978 traffic fatalities. The results indicate that when the 1977 regression coefficients were applied to the 1978 values for homicides and young drivers, they accounted for 49 % of the variance of the 1978 traffic fatalities. The findings are discussed in terms of how society's violence/aggression may contribute to traffic accidents.     

Predicting the ejection velocities of fragments from explosions cylindrical pressure vessels: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

The purpose of this study was a refinement of knowledge on predicting the ejection velocities of fragments generated by explosions of cylindrical horizontal pressure vessels. A procedure is proposed for assessing these velocities by means of the stochastic simulation. The procedure is used to quantify uncertainties related to the ejection velocities and to carry out a simulation-based sensitivity analysis. The main finding is that the currently available information on phenomena related to the vessel fragmentation is sparse and, therefore, predicting ejection velocities will require a substantial amount of subjective judgement. It was found that ejection velocities are functions of a relatively large number of random input variables, many of which must be modelled subjectively. The study revealed also the need to choose subjectively between several alternative mathematical models used to specify input variables that influence the ejection velocities. The most critical choice must be made between several models used for an assessment of the energy liberated during vessel explosions. Results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the ejection velocities are influenced mainly by input variables used to express energies involved in the prediction problem. Increased sensitivity to filling ratio of a two-phase pressure vessel was also detected. Results of the study can be used for an improvement of estimation of fragment impact probabilities and design of protective barriers that are built close to the pressure vessels posing explosion hazard.     

An examination of the increases in pedestrian motor-vehicle crash fatalities during 2009–2016

IntroductionPedestrian fatalities increased 46% in the United States during 2009–2016. This study identified circumstances under which the largest increases in deaths occurred during this period.MethodAnnual counts of U.S. pedestrian fatalities and crash involvements were extracted from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and General Estimates System. Poisson regression examined if pedestrian fatalities by various roadway, environmental, personal, and vehicle factors changed significantly during 2009–2016. Linear regression examined changes over the study period in pedestrian deaths per 100 crash involvements and in horsepower per 1000 pounds of weight among passenger vehicles involved in fatal single-vehicle pedestrian crashesResultsPedestrian deaths per 100 crash involvements increased 29% from 2010, when they reached their lowest point, to 2015, the most recent year for which crash involvement data were available. The largest increases in pedestrian deaths during 2009–2016 occurred in urban areas (54% increase from 2009 to 2016), on arterials (67% increase), at nonintersections (50% increase), and in dark conditions (56% increase). The rise in the number of SUVs involved in fatal single-vehicle pedestrian crashes (82% increase) was larger than the increases in the number of cars, vans, pickups, or medium/heavy trucks involved in these crashes. The power of passenger vehicles involved in fatal single-vehicle pedestrian crashes increased over the study period, with larger increases in vehicle power among more powerful vehicles.ConclusionsEfforts to turn back the recent increase in pedestrian fatalities should focus on the conditions where the rise has been the greatest.Practical applicationsTransportation agencies can improve urban arterials by investing in proven countermeasures, such as road diets, median crossing islands, pedestrian hybrid beacons, and automated speed enforcement. Better road lighting and vehicle headlights could improve pedestrian visibility at night.     

Effects of a Duct on the Venting of Explosions—Critical Review

The present paper deals with a study of the effect of ducting on explosions in vented enclosures. The presence of a duct was shown to increase the pressure reached in vented vessels. At the moment it is still not clear what are the main phenomena occurring in ducted-venting systems and no reliable correlations are available for the sizing of ducted vented systems. The only correlation available for gas explosions was developed by Bartknecht (1993) and assumed as a guideline in NFPA 68 (2002) while for dust explosions more correlations are available as reported in VDI 3673 (2002), in NFPA 68 (2002) and in Tamanini and Fisher (2003).This paper presents a critical review of available experimental and theoretical results on gas explosions in vessels vented through a duct that was carried out mainly to understand the role of the phenomena involved. Furthermore, the available correlations for ducted-venting of gaseous explosions of NFPA 68 (2002) and for dust explosions (Tamanini and Fisher, 2003; VDI 3673,2002; NFPA 68,2002) were applied to the experimental results available in the literature, to test their validity and applicability.     

Calculating overpressure from BLEVE explosions

Although a certain number of authors have analyzed the prediction of boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE) and fireball effects, only very few of them have proposed methodologies for predicting the overpressure from such explosions. In this paper, the methods previously published are discussed and shown to introduce a significant overestimation due to the erroneous thermodynamic assumptions—ideal gas behaviour and isentropic vapour expansion—on which they are based (in fact, they give the maximum value of overpressure which can be caused by a BLEVE). A new approach is proposed, based on the—more realistic—assumption of an adiabatic and irreversible expansion process; the real properties of the substance involved in the explosion are used. The two methods are compared through the application to a given case.     

Pedestrians under influence (PUI) crashes: Patterns from correspondence regression analysis

Introduction: Alcohol-related impairment is a key contributing factor in traffic crashes. However, only a few studies have focused on pedestrian impairment as a crash characteristic. In Louisiana, pedestrian fatalities have been increasing. From 2010 to 2016, the number of pedestrian fatalities increased by 62%. A total of 128 pedestrians were killed in traffic crashes in 2016, and 34.4% of those fatalities involved pedestrians under the influence (PUI) of drugs or alcohol. Furthermore, alcohol-PUI fatalities have increased by 120% from 2010 to 2016. There is a vital need to examine the key contributing attributes that are associated with a high number of PUI crashes. Method: In this study, the research team analyzed Louisiana’s traffic crash data from 2010 to 2016 by applying correspondence regression analysis to identify the key contributing attributes and association patterns based on PUI involved injury levels. Results: The findings identified five risk clusters: intersection crashes at business/industrial locations, mid-block crashes on undivided roadways at residential and business/residential locations, segment related crashes associated with a pedestrian standing in the road, open country crashes with no lighting at night, and pedestrian violation related crashes on divided roadways. The association maps identified several critical attributes that are more associated with fatal and severe PUI crashes. These attributes are dark to no lighting, open country roadways, and non-intersection locations. Practical Applications: The findings of this study may be used to help design effective mitigation strategies to reduce PUI crashes.     

Field data: distributions and costs of road-traffic fatalities in South Africa

BACKGROUND: Road-traffic crashes and fatalities constitute major social and economic issues in South Africa. They are a major cause of morbidity and mortality comparable to HIV/AIDS, homicides, and some chronic diseases. METHODS: Road-traffic accident data for the year 2003 obtained from the Department of Transport, Pretoria, South Africa were used for this study. The valuation of the costs of road-traffic crashes and fatalities in South Africa is based on the gross output or human capital approach. RESULTS: 10,197 fatal road crashes and 12,353 fatalities were reported during the study period. More than 50% of the fatal road crashes and fatalities occurred in only three out of 11 provinces. The Northern Cape, which is the least populated province, had the highest fatal road crashes per 100,000 population and fatalities per 100,000 population. The number of road-traffic fatalities in the rural areas was 2.7 times that in the urban areas. The total costs of the road-traffic fatalities which was about R 8 billion (>US$ 1 billion) is about 0.6% of the country's nominal GDP for 2003. 60% of the cases and costs of road-traffic fatalities involved persons aged 20-39 years, although this age group is only 27% of the country's population. The rural areas accounted for 73% and the urban areas 27% of the total costs of fatal road-traffic crashes. CONCLUSION: Those living in the rural areas of the South African society and those aged 20-49 years constitute high-risk groups of road-traffic crashes and fatalities. They are also responsible for most of the attendant costs of fatal crashes and fatalities in the country.     

A correlation of the lower flammability limit for hybrid mixtures

Hybrid mixtures are widely encountered in industries such as coal mines, paint factories, pharmaceutical industries, or grain elevators. Hybrid mixtures explosions involving dust and gas can cause great loss of lives and properties. The lower flammability limit (LFL) is a critical parameter when conducting a hazard assessment or developing mitigation methods for processes involving hybrid mixtures. Unlike unitary dust or gas explosions, which have been widely studied in past decades, only minimal research focuses on hybrid mixtures, and data concerning hybrid mixtures can rarely be found. Although methods to predict the LFL have been developed by using either Le Chatelier's Law, which was initially proposed for homogeneous gas mixtures, or the Bartknecht curve, which was adopted for only certain hybrid mixtures, significant deviations still remain. A more accurate correlation to predict an LFL for a hybrid mixtures explosion is necessary for risk assessment. This work focuses on the study of hybrid mixtures explosions in a 36 L dust explosion apparatus including mixtures of methane/niacin, methane/cornstarch, ethane/niacin and ethylene/niacin in air. By utilizing basic characteristics of unitary dust or gas explosions, a new formula is proposed to improve the prediction of the LFL of the mixture. The new formula is consistent with Le Chatelier's Law.     

An application of a conditional logistic regression to study the effects of safety belts, principal impact points, and car weights on drivers' fatalities

In addition to experimental trials in automotive factories, there is a fundamental need to monitor real people involved in real motor vehicle collisions to determine the impact of automotive design characteristics on injury mortality. To aid in designing future safety features for drivers' seats, data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) were used to assess the effects of safety belts, directions of crash impacts, age, sex, and car weights on motor vehicle injury fatalities. Furthermore, because the FARS includes only accidents in which there was at least one fatality, this paper introduces a multivariate approach — a logistic regression conditioned on each accident —to avoid the sampling biases inherent in the FARS. The resulting model is used to quantify the relations among the safety belts, the directions of crash impacts, and vehicle weights and their effects on fatalities. Recause the proposed approach allows researchers to study many important variables simultaneously and eliminates the biases resulting from many possible confounders, the estimates presented in this paper are considered to be more precise and more firmly established than earlier estimates. The new approach to analyzing the FARS data will also be useful for investigating the effects of other risk factors or automotive characteristics on crash fatalities.     

Global process safety incidents in the pharmaceutical industry

The objective of this research is to analyse global process safety incidents within the pharmaceutical industry in terms of their consequences and factors contributing to the incidents. There were 73 process safety incidents leading to 108 fatalities found between 1985 and 2019. Trends between the number of incidents, number of fatalities, location, and contributing factors were identified and summarized. The most reported fatalities occurred in 2018 & 2019. 83% of fatalities occurred in China and India. Explosions were associated with 71% of incidents, which resulted in 89% of fatalities. For most of the international incidents, incident investigations were not available and thus insufficient details were available to determine the causes. Contributing factors were available or estimated from available data for about half of the incidents, with the following most common: hazard awareness & identification; operating procedures; design; safeguards, controls & layers of protection; safety culture; and preventive maintenance. These findings can be used as a basis to improve process safety performance in the pharmaceutical industry.     

Analyzing the relationships between travel mode indicators and the number of passenger transport fatalities at the city level

Objective: A number of efforts have been conducted on travel behavior and transport fatalities at the neighborhood or street level, and they have identified different factors such as roadway characteristics, personal indicators, and design indicators related to transport safety. However, only a limited number of studies have considered the relationship between travel behavior indicators and the number of transport fatalities at the city level. Therefore, this study explores this relationship and how to fill the mentioned gap in current knowledge.

Method: A generalized linear model (GLM) estimates the relationships between different travel mode indicators (e.g., length of motorway per inhabitants, number of motorcycles per inhabitant, percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle, percentage of daily trips by public transport) and the number of passenger transport fatalities. Because this city-level model is developed using data sets from different cities all over the world, the impacts of gross domestic product (GDP) are also included in the model.

Conclusions: Overall, the results imply that the percentage of daily trips by public transport, the percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle, and the GDP per inhabitant have negative relationships with the number of passenger transport fatalities, whereas motorway length and the number of motorcycles have positive relationships with the number of passenger transport fatalities.     

Post-explosion observations of experimental mine and laboratory coal dust explosions

The Pittsburgh Research Laboratory (PRL) of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) and the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) conducted joint research on dust explosions by studying post-explosion dust samples. The samples were collected after full-scale explosions at the PRL Lake Lynn Experimental Mine (LLEM), and after laboratory explosions in the PRL 20-L chamber and the Fike 1 m³ chamber. The dusts studied included both high- and low-volatile bituminous coals. Low temperature ashing for 24 h at 515 °C was used to measure the incombustible content of the dust before and after the explosions. The data showed that the post-explosion incombustible content was always as high as, or higher than the initial incombustible content. The MSHA alcohol coking test was used to determine the amount of coked dust in the post-explosion samples. The results showed that almost all coal dust that was suspended within the explosion flame produced significant amounts of coke. Measurements of floor dust concentrations after LLEM explosions were compared with the initial dust loadings to determine the transport distance of dust during an explosion. All these data will be useful in future forensic investigations of accidental dust explosions in coal mines, or elsewhere.     

An analysis of equipment-related fatal accidents in U.S. mining operations: 1995–2005

Despite significant reductions in mining fatalities, the number of these accidents remains high. Based on the number of fatalities per year, a persistent area of concern in mine safety continues to be equipment-related. The study was undertaken in order to more thoroughly characterize equipment-related mining fatalities and to perform an analysis of those that occurred over the last 11-years, from 1995 through 2005. Equipment-related fatalities obtained from the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) reports are used in this study. Results show that the proportion of total mine fatalities attributable to the equipment ranged from 37% to 88% per year. Among the MSHA equipment subcategories, the greatest proportion of fatalities is related to haul trucks (22.3%), belt conveyors (9.3%), front-end loaders (8.5%), and miscellaneous equipment (36.6%). The relationship between number of equipment-related fatalities and mining experience of the workforce was also examined. Study shows that workers with less than five years of appropriate mining experience constitute 44% of all fatalities that occurred during the period of 1995–2005.     

Experimental study on the mitigation via an ultra-fine water mist of methane/coal dust mixture explosions in the presence of obstacles

In this paper, experimental investigations were performed for the mitigation via an ultra-fine water mist of methane/coal dust mixture explosions in the presence of obstacles to reveal the effects of the obstacles in this scenario. Two PCB piezo-electronic pressure transducers were used to acquire the pressure history, a Fastcam Ultima APX high-speed video camera was used to visualize both the process of the mixture explosion and its mitigation. The diameters of the coal dust, the types of obstacles and the volumes of ultra-fine water mist were varied in the tests. The parameters of the explosion overpressure and the range of critical volume flux of the ultra-fine water mist for explosion mitigation were determined. The results show that the mixture explosion and its mitigation are primarily influenced by the number, shape and set locations of the obstacles. When the volume flux of the water mist is larger than a certain amount, the mixture explosions and the effects of obstacles can be completely mitigated with the ultra-fine water mist.     

Smeed's law and expected road fatality reduction: An assessment of the Italian case

IntroductionSmeed's law defines the functional relationship existing between the fatality rate and the motorization rate. While focusing on the Italian case and based on the Smeed's law, the study assesses the possibility for Italy of reaching the target of halving the number of road fatalities by 2020, in light of the evolving socio-economic situation.MethodA Smeed's model has been calibrated based on the recorded Italian data. The evolution of the two indicators, fatality and motorization rates, has been estimated using the predictions of the main parameters (population, fleet size and fatalities). Those trends have been compared with the natural decreasing trend derived from the Smeed's law.ResultsNine scenarios have been developed showing the relationship between the fatality rate and the motorization rate. In case of a limited increase (logistic regression) of the vehicle fleet and according to the estimated evolution of the population, the path defined by motorization and fatality rate is very steep, diverging from the estimated confidence interval of the Smeed's model. In these scenarios the motorization rate is almost constant during the decade.ConclusionsIn the actual economic context, a limited development of the vehicle fleet is more plausible. In these conditions the target achievement of halving the number of fatalities in Italy may occur only in case of a structural break (i.e., the introduction of highly effective road safety policies).Practical applicationThe proposed tools can be used both to evaluate retrospectively the effectiveness of road safety improvements and to assess if a relevant effort is needed to reach the established road safety targets.     

Analysis of fatalities and injuries involving mining equipment

INTRODUCTION: Despite significant reductions, the number of injuries and fatalities in mining remains high. A persistent area of concern continues to be equipment-related incidents. METHOD: Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) and Current Population Survey (CPS) data were used to examine equipment-related injuries over the period 1995-2004. Incidents were reviewed to determine which types of mining equipment were most often involved and to identify and characterize trends. RESULTS: Non-powered hand tools was the equipment category most often involved with non-fatal injuries while off-road ore haulage was the most common source of fatalities. SUMMARY: Younger employees had an elevated risk of injury while workers >55 years had an elevated risk for fatality. A large majority of incidents involve workers with <5 years experience. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Results should increase hazard awareness and enable mine management to select and prioritize problem areas and safety system weaknesses in both underground and surface mining.     

Characterization of fatal occupational versus nonoccupational motor vehicle collisions in Kentucky (1998-2000)

Motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) are the leading cause of occupational fatalities in Kentucky as well as in the nation. The characteristics of and contributing factors for occupational versus nonoccupational MVC fatalities in the Commonwealth of Kentucky were examined from 1998 to 2000. Semi trucks were most frequently involved in fatal occupational MVCs, and passenger cars were most frequently involved in nonoccupational MVCs. More than half of the decedent drivers resided outside of Kentucky. The percentage of occupational fatalities occurring on a four-lane highway was double the percentage observed for nonoccupational MVC fatalities. In addition, an increased proportion of occupational MVC deaths occurred on limited access highways compared to nonoccupational fatalities. When human factors contributing to these fatal incidents were examined, the two primary human factors involved in occupational motor vehicle fatalities were driver distraction/inattention and falling asleep, whereas unsafe speed and alcohol were the primary human factors contributing to a nonoccupational fatality. These results suggest that semi drivers traveling on four-lane highways are more at risk for a fatal occupational injury in Kentucky. Therefore, additional epidemiological studies are needed to further examine human factors, the nature of the Kentucky highway system, and trucking controls (e.g., weigh station hours of operation) within the Kentucky transportation industry.     

The fatality consequences of the 65 mph speed limits, 1989

This study examined whether the number of fatalities on rural interstates in 1989 was higher than would be expected based on experience during 1982–1986 and experience on all other roads. Among the 40 states that increased the speed limit to 65 mph on rural interstates, the number of fatalities was 29% higher than expected. Among the eight states retaining a 55 mph maximum speed limit on rural interstates, the observed number of fatalities was 12% lower than expected, although this reduction was not statistically significant. After adjusting the fatality risk on rural interstates for differences in vehicle miles traveled on those roads and for higher passenger vehicle occupancy rates attributable to possible increases in vacation travel, the increased fatality risk was 19%. These data suggest that the majority of the estimated increase in fatalities on rural interstates in 1989 (almost 400 of the approximately 600 extra deaths) can be attributed to the higher speeds resulting from the higher speed limits. Changes in mileage account for the remaining 200 extra deaths.     

Pedestrian Casualties and Fatalities in Road Traffic Crashes in a South African Municipality

A study of the pedestrian casualties and fatalities in road traffic crashes in Durban, a South African municipality, for 1999 was undertaken using official road traffic accident data. The pedestrians age 25 to 44, although only 23.9% of the population, were 39.3% of the casualties and 48.2% of the fatalities. The most vulnerable pedestrians were those 30 to 34 years old who were 6.1% of the population, 11.7% of the casualties, and 14.6% of the fatalities; 35- to 39-year-olds who were 6% of the population, 8.8% of the casualties, and 13.5% of the fatalities; and the 40- to 44-year-olds who were 4.9% of the population, 7.5% of the casualties, and 10.2% of the fatalities. Cars were involved in 52% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes but had fewer crashes than minibuses and buses, and fewer casualties and fatalities than minibuses, buses, and motorcycles. Minibuses recorded the most crashes at 1,037 per 100 million km, the highest casualty rate of 268 per 100 million km, and highest fatality rate of 17 per 100 million km. Buses, which were involved in 3% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes, had 951 crashes per 100 million km, 182 casualties per 100 million km, and 11 fatalities per 100 million km. Motorcycles were involved in 1% of the vehicle-pedestrian crashes and had per 100 million km 508 crashes, 192 casualties, and 7 fatalities. There was no statistically significant difference in the monthly distribution of the road traffic crashes.