不同情境下中国碳排放权交易市场的风险度量

以深圳、湖北、广东、上海及北京5个碳交易中心2015～2020年的日交易数据为基础,设置了Ave、Med、Max、Min4种交易情境,采用TGARCH-VaR模型对不同情境下的碳排放权交易市场风险进行了研究.结果表明,不同情境下碳排放交易市场风险存在差异,各情境的市场稳定性、政策响应度均存在一定规律:Ave情境碳现货收...     

Ensuring the environmental effectiveness of linked emissions trading schemes over time

Linking emissions trading schemes allows the combined emissions cap to be achieved at lower cost. Linking is usually environmentally neutral, but some design features can lead to higher aggregate emissions if schemes are linked. Technical solutions to limit the potential emissions increases due to design differences implemented when schemes are linked are not sufficient to ensure the environmental effectiveness of the linked schemes over time. Technological, economic, administrative and other changes that can lead to higher aggregate emissions are inevitable. The administrators of the linked schemes must ensure the stringency of the emissions cap relative to the “business as usual” emissions of affected sources, the accuracy of the emissions reported by affected sources, the integrity of the allowance registry, effective compliance enforcement, and the environmental integrity of the credits issued for emission reduction projects over time. This will require a process for agreeing on revisions to the regulations of the linked schemes, a mechanism to provide assurance of the environmental effectiveness of each of the linked schemes, and a procedure for terminating the linking agreement.

The interaction between emissions trading and renewable electricity support schemes. An overview of the literature

The public promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources coexists in many countries with the recent implementation of emissions trading schemes. As shown by several papers, this coexistence may lead to significant interactions between both instruments, in the form of synergies and conflicts. This paper provides an overview and analysis of the literature on such coexistence and interactions. A major conclusion is that policy measures aiming at exploiting the synergies between both instruments should be implemented. The greatest synergy effects from the use of both instruments take place through appropriate coordination of their targets. Another key finding is that, although some stylised facts can be inferred from the studies, some results from those complex interactions are context-specific since they depend on the design of the instruments in particular countries. In spite of the significant policy implications of such interactions for the effective and cost-effective functioning of both instruments, this is a surprisingly under searched field. It is so concerning, both, theoretical and empirical analysis.

Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments

Both Europe and China have announced targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy development. To achieve their emissions targets, Europe has introduced emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2005 and China has planned to establish a national ETS in 2015. We assess the impact of a joint Europe-China ETS when both climate and energy policy instruments are simulated in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Our results show that a joint ETS markedly increases total carbon emissions from fossil fuels even though global mitigation costs are reduced. Moreover, a joint ETS helps China achieve its renewable energy target, but for Europe, it works opposite. While the renewable energy target does not help Europe achieve additional abatement, the renewable energy target in China reduces mitigation costs and emissions, and increases renewable energy consumption and sales of carbon allowances. Financial transfer through a joint ETS remains marginal compared to China’s demand for renewable energy subsidies. We conclude that as long as an absolute emissions cap is missing in China, a joint ETS is not attractive for mitigation and China’s renewable energy target can reduce emissions.     

Land-based carbon storage and the European union emissions trading scheme: the science underlying the policy

Climate change is occurring with greater speed and intensity that previously anticipated. All effective environmentally and socially sound mitigation efforts need to be employed to effectively address this global crisis. Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) projects can provide significant climate change mitigation benefits as well as poverty alleviation and biodiversity conservation benefits. The policies of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), the world’s largest carbon market exclude LULUCF. Scientific support for this exclusion was presented in a briefing paper published by the Climate Action Network—Europe (CAN) that puts forward the proposition that land based storage of carbon is ineffective. A careful review of the scientific papers cited in support of CAN’s position indicates that, while the papers themselves are scientifically sound, they do not support the continued exclusion of LULUCF projects from the EU-ETS. At the same time some important recent research papers that describe the carbon storage and social benefit potential of such projects are not included in the analysis. An in-depth consideration of the scientific evidence is necessary in evaluating this policy option. Based on this evidence a case can be made for the inclusion of LULUCF projects in the EU-ETS.     

Linking the EU emissions trading scheme: economic implications of allowance allocation and global carbon constraints

We investigate the role of domestic allowance allocation and global emissions constraints for the carbon-market impacts of linking the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) internationally. Employing a quantitative simulation model of the global carbon market, we find that the economic benefits from connecting the European ETS to emerging non-EU schemes strongly depend on the regional allowance allocation of the linking participants: In a world of moderate carbon constraints, an economically efficient regional allowance allocation induces a much stronger fall in total compliance costs than a sub-optimal (i.e. too high) domestic allocation of emissions permits. However, a more efficient (i.e. stricter) allocation shifts abatement efforts and compliance costs to energy-intensive industries which are covered by the domestic ETS. We further find that committing to ambitious global emissions reduction targets (compatible with stabilizing CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm) induces much stronger regional abatement efforts and substantially higher compliance costs for the abating regions. In such an ambitious climate policy regime, an efficient domestic allocation of allowances is even more important from an economic perspective: Here, linking emissions trading schemes diminishes the associated compliance costs on the largest scale.

Fairness aspects of linking the European emissions trading scheme under a long-term stabilization scenario for CO2 concentration

Climate equity is a crucial but difficult element in negotiations on a post-2012 climate regime. With respect to the trading of greenhouse gas emissions the equity aspect is considered in the Kyoto Protocol which demands that emissions trading should be supplemental to domestic abatement efforts. The question arises whether a linking of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) to non-EU emission trading schemes or the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) could have an impact on principles of climate justice and thus potentially affect ongoing negotiations. In this study, we present the results of a three step analysis: In a first step, it estimates mid-term greenhouse gas emission entitlements for Annex B and Non-Annex B countries for the year 2020 which keep within reach a stabilization of the CO₂ concentration at 450 ppmv in the long-term. In the second step, the resulting emission entitlements are used as an input to an economic partial-equilibrium model in order to assess the shift of abatement efforts under different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. In a third step, we analyze the outcome of the economic model with respect to the future trend of European per capita emissions under the current EU ETS relative to different scenarios of linking the EU ETS. The model results indicate that European per capita emissions have to be reduced to a considerably smaller extent if a linking of the EU ETS is accompanied by an optimal design of the National Allocation Plans and if low-cost CO₂ permits became available via the CDM to a large extent.

中国碳排放权交易市场发展历程 ——从试点到全国

碳排放权交易作为控制温室气体排放的一种市场化手段,相对于行政手段具有全社会减排成本较低、能够为企业减排提供灵活选择等优势。2011年以来,我国在北京、天津、上海、重庆、湖北、广东、深圳7个地方开展了碳排放权交易试点工作,为全国碳市场建设积累了宝贵经验。2017年年底,以发电行业为突破口的全国碳市场启动。2018年4月,国务院碳交易主管部门由国家发展和改革委转隶至生态环境部,生态环境部从推动碳交易立法、建立健全制度体系、加快基础设施建设、强化基础能力建设等方面稳步推进全国碳市场建设。本文梳理了我国碳市场的发展历程,并对全国碳市场的进一步完善提出建议。     

内蒙古自治区实施排污权交易的探索

探索和建立排污权交易制度,实现稀缺环境资源的有偿使用,提高环境资源的配置效率,对于内蒙古自治区建立长效减排机制、改善环境质量有着非常现实的意义。本文在借鉴国内外排污权和碳交易理论和经验的基础上,分析内蒙古自治区排污权交易制度设计和实践特点,提出进一步完善和活跃内蒙古自治区排污权交易市场的对策建议。     

Oil price scenarios and climate policy: welfare effects of including transportation in the EU emissions trading system

The stringency of policies needed to meet a climate target is influenced by uncertain oil prices because price changes cause emission changes, making the robustness of climate policy instruments important. As a result of its dependence on oil, emissions from the transport sector are particularly sensitive to oil price changes. We use a computable general equilibrium model to study the effects of including the transport sector in the EU??s emissions trading scheme under three future oil price scenarios. Our results show that there are potentially significant welfare gains from including transportation in the emissions trading scheme because the system as a whole helps absorb required changes in climate policy to meet the overall EU cap on emissions. There is, however, a cost in terms of somewhat greater permit price uncertainty.     

关于排污权交易市场设置的探索研究

排污权交易在我国经过了近30年的探索和实践,仍然停留在试点工作上的原因在于该制度的推广还存在一些困难。本文针对我国部分排污权交易试点地区由于市场容量过小,导致排污权供给不足,出现供不应求情况的问题,以山西省排污权交易开展现状为例,从人口、经济、政策环境等方面对影响市场设置的因素作出初步探索和分析,认为按照省级行政区域来划分市场范围是目前比较合理的选择,可以充分发挥排污权交易机制在市场资源配置方面的作用。     

从全球的视角看中国环保产业--国际环保巨子羊城论道

对于多数人而言，环保产业作为一项朝阳产业是一个普遍共识。但是中国的环保产业也存在一些不容忽视的问题。中国环保产业的发展之所以有一些不成熟的地方，一定程度上与发展历史过短有关。     

碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响及传导机制

以2005~2017年30个省市面板数据为研究样本,采用双重差分、动态效应检验和三重差分等方法,考察了碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响效果及异质性,同时利用多重中介效应模型,解析碳交易对工业碳生产率的实现机制.结果表明,碳交易政策显著提升了工业碳生产率,实现了"降碳促经"效果,且该效果保持逐年上升趋势;异质性检验表明,各试点地区对政策的响应程度存在一定差异,北京、天津、上海、湖北工业碳生产率的提升效果较为显著,而广东、重庆未能对政策做出充分响应;机制分析发现,碳交易政策能够有效激励环境治理效应、结构优化效应和技术革新效应,进而影响工业碳生产率提升,其中结构优化效应是响应政策最为充分的机制.本文研究结果可为中国未来碳市场运行提供一定参考.     

The impact of carbon trading on regulated agents in China

Facing requirements of sustainable development and tremendous international pressures, China has initiated a serious of trials for mandatory carbon trading schemes. In this study, to investigate the impact of carbon trading on commodity prices, emissions, outputs and profits of the regulated agents such as power plants in China, a partial equilibrium model is constructed based on the Cournot theory of oligopoly. Three key results were found. First, following the implementation of a carbon trading scheme there is a shift of production from plants with high emission rates to those with low rates. Second, the emission-based updating (EBU) allocation of allowable emissions would provide a buffer in which the reduced outputs and profits of plants with high emissions are alleviated. Third, if the electricity price is market oriented it will vary with the carbon price. Based on these results, we conclude that the carbon constraint will result in cleaner generating technologies and be helpful in promoting the development of low carbon technologies in China. In addition, the EBU allocation is more feasible at the beginning of the national carbon trading in China. Given that electricity prices in China are regulated now, we argue that mandatory carbon trading should be implemented at the beginning of coordinated reforms of market-oriented pricing in electricity.     

An overview of emissions trading and its prospects in Hong Kong

With the approval of the Chinese central government, the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) decided to participate in a regional emissions trading (ET) pilot scheme in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. This scheme, instead of aiming to curb global warming, is geared mostly toward reducing air pollutant (that is, SO₂, NO_x, RSP, and VOCs) emissions by 20–55% by 2010, thus improving air quality in the region. Both the HKSAR and the Guangdong Provincial Governments will impose emission caps on their respective power plants in the region and allocate emissions credits to them. This study explores the background of this regional ET scheme and correlates it with the emissions reduction scenario to provide more details for assessing its applicability to Hong Kong and Guangdong Province. Although practicing ET in the PRD region presents many challenges, establishing an appropriate ET scheme is of paramount importance for Hong Kong, as well as other cities in the PRD region, to achieve a sustainable air quality.     

环境规制对碳排放时空格局演变的作用路径研究——基于东北三省地级市实证分析

基于2005-2016年东北三省36个地级市面板数据,定性分析环境规制与碳排放的时空格局演变特征,并利用中介效应分析法定量研究环境规制对碳排放的影响及作用路径。结果表明：（1）从各城市对比来看,环境规制强度呈现出明显的市域差异,碳排放量呈先增加后减小态势。（2）从空间格局来看,环境规制强度呈现由北向南逐渐增强的态势,区域间差异逐渐增大。环境规制的高水平类型分布集中,城市数量最多;低水平类型均位于黑龙江省北部,城市数量最少。碳排放量的高水平类型集中分布在辽东半岛以及大庆市和吉林市等石油型、冶金型城市,低水平类型城市数量呈波动增加,主要分布在东北北部,且向南逐渐扩散。（3）东北三省严格的环境规制不仅直接抑制碳排放,也可以通过优化产业结构和精简粗放投资间接抑制碳排放,地方政府竞争则会减弱环境规制对碳排放的抑制效应。     

二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系的实证分析

在全球范围内为应对气候变化而达成二氧化碳减排共识的背景下,探求“经济增长”与“二氧化碳排放”间相互关系.运用协整,向量自回归模型,脉冲响应函数以及格兰杰因果检验等方法,对处在经济发展不同阶段区域的人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间关系进行因果检验.研究结果表明：区域经济发展与人均二氧化碳排放量存在长期均衡关系,但是由于区域间经济发展水平及发展方式的不同,人均二氧化碳排放量与经济增长间相互影响程度存在差异,且二氧化碳排放量的减少并不是经济增长的必然结果,必须通过产业结构调整,扶持第三产业,使用清洁能源,发展低碳经济的方式来实现,本文对我国碳减排政策的制定具有一定借鉴意义.