风向、风速、稳定度类别联合概率分布及混合层深度的诊断估计初探

本文从概率理论给出了由风玫瑰、各风向下年平均风速、稳定度频率求算的联合概率分布函数,并给出了由10米高度上气象常规风速观测值及稳定度级别确定混合层厚的半经验诊断公式。     

大气扩散模式通用计算程序研究完成

为满足广大环境保护工作者在环境保护工作和环境影响评价工作的需要,北京市环境保护研究所科研工作者与有关方面通力协作,研究开发了一套大气扩散模式通用计算程序,本软件包内有若干个功能不同互相独向的计算程序,可以分别计算点源在各种不同稳定度,各种风速条件下的下风向瞬时地面浓度,点源周围16个方位利用稳定度、风向,风速联合频率加权计算的月、季、年长     

拟合风频法计算重庆大气稳定度频率

本文用韦伯分布拟合风频,在确定大气稳定度的三因子太阳高度角、云量和风速是相互独立的变量的假定下,用计算单个变量频率的方法,计算了重庆5年的P—T大气稳定度频率,其结果与原P—T法统计结果十分吻合。对误差综合分析后给出了合理的订正方案,个例订正表明了方案的正确性。通过大量迭代推算给出重庆风速韦伯分布最佳函数值,以供选用。     

重庆大气稳定度频率

本文用改进的Pasquill-Turner法统计了重庆六年大气稳定度频率,分析了稳定度频率的年际变化、月变化和日变化特点,得出重庆地区大气稳定度频率以中性最高,稳定型次之,不稳定频率最低的结论。统计分析了各类稳定度逐年变化并对这些变化特征从地理、气候和天气上予以解释,最后讨论了太阳赤纬的取值问题。     

天津大气稳定度和逆温特征对PM2.5污染的影响

利用气象铁塔资料分析了逆温频率和强度,采用温差-风速法计算了天津地区大气稳定度,探讨了其相互关系及对PM_2.5浓度月均值和超标日的影响,并对一次重污染过程中大气稳定度和逆温分布特征进行了分析.结果表明,2015年9月~2017年8月A,B,C,D,E和F类大气稳定度发生频率依次为6.7%,11.4%,22.4%,46.1%,11.1%和2.2%,秋冬季节稳定类天气（E,F类）较多,全年白天各时段均以不稳定类大气为主,夜间大气稳定度以中性为主,秋冬季夜间稳定类高达30%~40%.观测期内冬季逆温频率最高,5：00~8：00和21：00~23：00超过90%,冬季逆温强度也最高.随着稳定类大气层结日数的增多,PM_2.5月均值和污染日数均有所增大,同时逐月PM_2.5均值、污染日发生频率均与逆温发生频率呈正相关关系.2016年12月16~21日的一次重污染天气过程显示,PM_2.5受到大气稳定度和逆温发展的影响,霾形成、雾-霾交替和消散等阶段大气稳定度和逆温特征具有显著的不同.大气持续趋于稳定及逆温强度的逐渐增大,对污染生成和维持起了非常重要的作用,污染过程中大气稳定度和逆温特征的精细化分析有助于提升重污染天气预报预警水平.     

吉阳核电厂址近地面层温度梯度及风廓线规律适用性研究

观测安徽吉阳核电厂址近地面层的气象数据,对该厂址近地面层温度梯度及风廓线规律的适用性进行了分析,通过散点图的形式寻找风速比随稳定度参数的变化特征。结果表明,本区气温日变化符合一般观测规律,四季平均气温有较大差异、温差偏大,春夏两季多易出现逆温,春冬逆温强度较夏季偏大;非中性层结条件下风速比值随稳定度的增强而离散增大。     

北京地区边界层厚度特征的统计研究

本文采用北京气象台和320米塔多年来测得的风和温度资料,统计分析了各稳定度类的边界层厚度(BLD)特征,得到北京地区稳定度类频率、平衡条件下的BLD、BLD的诊断模式及夜间BLD的预报模式,为中远距离的输送扩散、污染模式及边界层结构的研究提供依据.     

华东地区大气本底中降水酸度变化

根据1985～1991年7年中采集的降水样品913个,进行归纳和分析。结果表明,降水酸度有逐年增加的趋势,强酸性降水出现增多,酸沉降量增加趋势十分明显。一年四季中的降水酸度各不相同,冬季最高,夏季最低,主要取决于降水量的变化,在各稳定度中降水量出现最多的是大气不稳定状态时。     

大气质量模式通用计算程序的研究与开发

为满足广大环境保护工作者在大气环境影响评价和环境质量管理工作中的需要,北京市环境保护科学研究所大气室的科研人员与有关方面通力协作联合研究开发了一套大气质量模式通用计算程序。这套软件内有若干个功能不同互相独立的计算程序,一些辅助程序和数据文,计算程序可以分别计算高架点源在各类大气稳定度和各级风速条件下的下风向108个评价点的小时地面浓度分布和点源周围16个方位共288个计算点地面的月、季、年长期平均浓度分布,还可以计算不同尺度的面源在各类大气稳定度、各种风向、各级风速条件下的小时地面浓度和长     

基于信息扩散和模糊评价方法的四川盆地气候干旱综合评价

利用1961~2005年历史气象资料,以受旱天数、湿润度指数、标准化降水指数、温度距平、日照距平百分率等5个要素作为干旱评价指标,应用信息扩散方法建立了各单个评价指标的春、夏、伏旱旱情等级划分标准,采用模糊综合评价方法对1961~2006年四川盆地气候干旱进行评价,并给出了各市干旱出现的频率。结果表明:2006年四川盆地发生了严重的春旱、夏旱和特别严重的伏旱,盆区17个市均有伏旱发生,其中有13个市伏旱特别严重;伏旱期少雨天气平均为30年一遇,高温天气平均为60年一遇,约29%的台站的少雨和90%的台站的高温为50年以上一遇;春、夏旱主要出现在盆地西北部和盆地南部,约2.5年出现一次,伏旱则主要出现在盆地东部,约2年出现一次。     

Multivariate geostatistical trend detection and network evaluation of space-time acid deposition data—II. Application to NADP/NTN data

A multivariate geostatistical technique was presented in the first part of this paper (Rouhani et al., 1992, Atmospheric Environment 26A, 2603–2614) with the objective of addressing two key issues of trend detection and network evaluation of the acid deposition data. The investigated data include weekly reported SO₄²⁻ concentrations and depositions from 34 level-1 stations of the NADP/NTN. The duration of the available data ranges from 6 to 10 years. In order to extract the maximum amount of information from these relatively short time series, it is imperative to avoid any data reduction, such as integrating the data into seasonal or annual series. Direct quadratic spectrum estimation is applied to the data, which clearly indicates the presence of annual cycles in a large number of stations. Based on these preliminary results, measurement stations are grouped into three main eco-regions, including the Northeast/central, the West and the Midwest/Gulf regions. While the first two regions exhibit significant annual periodicities, the latter region does not show any significant cyclic characteristics. This analysis is followed by multi-scale temporal variography that further confirms the presence of periodic trends. Two types of time series are generated by co-kriging: (1) the non-periodic components at each station, and (2) the non-periodic regionalized factors for each region. Kendall's test for trend detection is applied to all generated time series, as well as to the original data. The results indicate that by geostatistical filtering of periodic components, the proposed procedure offers an efficient technique for trend detection. Using the estimated coregionalization matrices, spatial correlograms are generated for various temporal scales and regions. Viewing the estimated integral scale of each spatial correlogram as an indicator of the radius of information-influence of each measurement station, the NADP/NTN network is evaluated for its adequacy of coverage under different temporal scales.     

Climate controls on dust storm occurrence in Maowusu Desert, Inner Mongolia, north China

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＤｕｓｔｓｔｏｒｍｓ,ｗｈｉｃｈｒｅｍｏｖｅｌａｒｇｅｑｕａｎｔｉｔｉｅｓｏｆｔｏｐｓｏｉｌ,ｐｌａｙａｍａｉｎｒｏｌｅｉｎｔｈｅｅｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｌａｎｄｓｃａｐｅｓｉｎａｒｉｄａｎｄｓｅｍｉ ａｒｉｄｌａｎｄｓ.Ｏｃｃｕｒｒｅｎｃｅｏｆｄｕｓｔｓｔｏｒｍｄｅｐｅｎｄｓｏｎａｎｕｍｂｅｒｏｆｅｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌｆａｃｔｏｒｓ,ｉｎｃｌｕｄｉｎｇｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔａｖａｉｌａｂｉｌｉｔｙ ,ｓｏｉｌｅｒｏｄｉｂｉｌｉｔｙａｎｄｗｉｎｄｅｒｏｓｉｖｉｔｙ .Ｉｎｒｅｃｅｎｔ…     

中国区域年降水空间分布高精度曲面建模

论文利用781个采样站点的降水数据(中国大陆729个气象台站1951—2002年间月降水观测数据、台湾地区25个站点1971—2000年年均降水数据、世界"雨极"乞拉朋齐年均降水量以及中国西部增设的26个虚拟站点模拟数据),选取有效的敏感性解析因子经纬度、高程、坡向修正系数与地形开阔度等,建立累年平均降水与相关解析因子之间的多元回归方程(降水总体趋势)。并对于回归拟合后与局部变化有关的"随机指示项",采用HASM算法进一步插值处理。模型充分考虑其他地理环境因子的影响,在采样点稀疏区域使用虚拟站点辅助模拟,克服了传统模拟方法完全依赖观测站点实测资料,在站点稀疏区域等雨量线走向主观性的缺点;模型模拟结果既突出空间分布的总体趋势,也反映局地细节变化。     

云南省热区农业气候、土地资源图的编制

本文采用农业气候分类与土地特征(地貌、坡度)分级相结合的方法编制云南省热区图。这是用一张图,在同一块图斑上同时表示出农业气候和土地两种专业内容特征;按土地和气候的本来面目分型划类,并量算出各类型分区域的土地面积。这是一次新的尝试,以期使科学性和实用性能较好地结合起来。     

上海市TSP-Pb空气质量监测点位优化研究

通过对上海市23个站点的TSP-Pb监测数据的分析,发现TSP与Pb之间具有良好的相关性.因此考虑只用TSP数据对站点进行优化.通过对各站点TSP数据的聚类分析,将所有站点分为6类,然后对包含多个站点的类,将类中各站点与本类均值一同进行再聚类,选取代表站点.最终选取6个站点作为上海市TSP-Pb污染水平的代表站点.优化前后的对比分析表明,优化结果合理,信息损失量小.     

贵阳市不同粒级地表灰尘中As、Ni水平及权重

根据贵阳市城区土地利用的情况,在不同功能区地表采集灰尘样品,分析As、Ni含量及变异规律。结果表明:贵阳市地表灰尘As、Ni含量分别为17.4mg/kg和50.0mg/kg。工业区地表灰尘中As、Ni含量最高,商贸区和校园等区域As、Ni水平较低。贵阳市地表灰尘中不同颗粒物的质量百分比大小为细颗粒(<105μm)>中等颗粒(105～250μm)>粗颗粒(250～425μm)。As在不同粒径灰尘中含量差别不大,Ni在不同粒径灰尘中含量随粒径增加而降低。细颗粒对灰尘As、Ni的贡献分别为42%和47%。除垃圾站外,贵阳市各功能区地表灰尘不同粒径颗粒物百分比随粒径增大而减小,其中交通区地表灰尘细颗粒所占比例最大。垃圾站地表灰尘中不同粒径颗粒百分比则随粒径增大而增大,As、Ni在垃圾站地表灰尘中颗粒物贡献为中等颗粒>粗颗粒>细颗粒,其余功能区不同粒径颗粒物的贡献基本为细颗粒大于粗颗粒。     

Spatial and temporal variation of haze in China from 1961 to 2012

The purpose of this study is to analyze the climatic characteristics and long-term spatial and temporal variations of haze occurrence in China. The impact factors of haze trends are also discussed. Meteorological data from 1961 to 2012 and daily PM₁₀ concentrations from 2003 to 2012 were employed in this study. The results indicate that the annual-average hazy days at all stations have been increasing rapidly from 4 days in 1961 to 18 days in 2012. The maximum number of haze days occur in winter (41.1%) while the minimum occur in summer (10.4%). During 1961-2012, the high occurrence areas of haze shifted from central to south and east regions of China. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Henan Province are the high occurrence areas for haze, while the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) have become regions with high haze occurrences in the last 25 years. Temperature and pressure are positively correlated with the number of haze days. However, wind, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration are negatively correlated with the number of haze days. The key meteorological factors affecting the formation and dissipation of haze vary for high and low altitudes, and are closely related to anthropogenic activities. In recent years, anthropogenic activities have played a more important role in haze occurrences compared with meteorological factors.     

Calculation of visual range improvements from SO2 emission controls—I. Semi-empirical methodology

This paper, the first of a two-part series, presents a new semi-empirical methodology that allows estimation of the percentage improvements in annual average visual range that can be expected from a percentage reduction of SO₂ emissions. This methodology relies on an intuitive mathematical approach that combines four separate effects: (1) the transport of atmospheric sulfur; (2) the possible nonlinearity of the SO₂-to-SO²⁻₄ chemical transformation; (3) the fraction of sulfates in fine particulate matter, taking into account the role of the water adsorbed by the fine particles; and (4) the fraction of light extinction that is due to fine particles. By looking at these four effects, within the context of each of the various meteorological regimes that have distinct influences on visual air quality, the problem can be broken down into manageable components that model a portion of the source-receptor interaction. If the necessary arrays that specify these four terms, which are expressed in fractional form, can be quantified for each region and meteorological classification, then the methodology can estimate the average ‘efficiency’ of reductions in SO₂ emissions for producing improvements in long-term regional averages of visual range. Then, annual averages can be computed if the relative frequency of occurrence of each meteorological regime in each region is known. Moreover, the method estimates the uncertainty in the calculated percentage improvements in visual range, based on the uncertainties in input data. The second paper in this series will present an example of the application of this methodology to the eastern U.S., where the effect of SO₂ emissions on visibility has received significant attention.     

CLIGEN生成干旱半干旱地区降水相关参数的验证

选用黄河上中游地区无定河流域为中心的15个气象站1959~1999年的降水日值资料,对随机天气发生器CLIGEN在干旱半干旱地区再现降水的能力进行了验证。结果表明:CLIGEN模型较好地模拟了该区域的降水发生概率;很好地再现了年、月、日降水总量平均值,平均相对偏差分别为2.4%、2.4%和2.1%;CLIGEN再现了96.4%的日降水变率、95.9%的月降水变率和84.1%的年降水变率。对年降水变率估计稍差,表明CLIGEN在模拟降水变率方面还有改进的必要。从降水极值看,年降水最大值的平均相对偏差为11.1%,偏差最大的是干旱区的临河站（39.1%）;年降水最小值的平均相对偏差为20.5%,偏差最大的是临河站（-30.7%）;月最大降水量除两站稍低外,其它站平均偏高20.2%;日降水最大值除临河站偏低3.4%外,其余各站平均偏高43.2%。总体上讲,CLIGEN在干旱地区的模拟能力比在半干旱区稍差。鉴于CLI-GEN模拟的极大值绝大部分都偏高,因此利用CLIGEN模型生成的降水资料运行径流和土壤侵蚀模型有高估径流量和土壤侵蚀量的可能,需要进一步利用自计雨量计的资料对CLIGEN生成次降水的参数进行验证,以确保径流和土壤侵蚀预测的精度。     

Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.