Sensitivity Analysis of Aggregated Indices for Integrated Assessment with a Case Study of the Mid-Atlantic Region

Environmental indicators are often aggregated into a single index for various purposes in environmental studies. Aggregated indices derived from the same data set can differ, usually because the aggregated indices' sensitivities are not thoroughly analyzed. Furthermore, if a sensitivity analysis is carried out, it is not presented in a transparent fashion to policy decision-makers. This paper presents a method of generating various aggregated environmental indices and analyzing their sensitivities via the use of the fuzzy set concept. Results show that several insights into the environmental conditions of the study area (e.g., the distribution of good or bad values of indicators at a watershed and or across the region) can be revealed in the sensitivity analysis of aggregated indices.     

Sustainability at the Local Scale: Defining Highly Aggregated Indices for Assessing Environmental Performance. The Province of Reggio Emilia (Italy) as a Case Study

In order to achieve improved sustainability, local authorities need to use tools that adequately describe and synthesize environmental information. This article illustrates a methodological approach that organizes a wide suite of environmental indicators into few aggregated indices, making use of correlation, principal component analysis, and fuzzy sets. Furthermore, a weighting system, which includes stakeholders’ priorities and ambitions, is applied. As a case study, the described methodology is applied to the Reggio Emilia Province in Italy, by considering environmental information from 45 municipalities. Principal component analysis is used to condense an initial set of 19 indicators into 6 fundamental dimensions that highlight patterns of environmental conditions at the provincial scale. These dimensions are further aggregated in two indices of environmental performance through fuzzy sets. The simple form of these indices makes them particularly suitable for public communication, as they condensate a wide set of heterogeneous indicators. The main outcomes of the analysis and the potential applications of the method are discussed.     

A measurement of community disaster resilience in Korea

Building a community that is resilient to disasters has become one of the main goals of disaster management. Communities that are more disaster resilient often experience less impact from the disaster and reduced recovery periods afterwards. This study develops a methodology for constructing a set of indicators measuring Community Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) in terms of human, social, economic, environmental, and institutional factors. In this study, the degree of community resilience to natural disasters was measured for 229 local municipalities in Korea, followed by an examination of the relationship between the aggregated CDRI and disaster losses, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. Identifying the extent of community resilience to natural disasters would provide emergency managers and decision-makers with strategic directions for improving local communities' resilience to natural disasters while reducing the negative impacts of disasters.     

Developing Statewide Indices of Environmental, Economic, and Social Sustainability: a look at Oregon and the Oregon Benchmarks

This research develops a method to transform the Oregon Benchmarks, a set of internationally recognized quantitative indicators designed to measure a broad array of state-level trends, into indices of social, economic, and environmental sustainability. Through multiple means, an original set of 90 Oregon Benchmarks has been narrowed into a smaller set of sustainability indicators in order to gain an integrated view of statewide sustainability as well as the capacity to look at social, environmental, and economic sustainability in isolation. The three-domain sustainability indices presented here are designed both to understand the current sustainability situation and to create a useful and informative tool for state-level policy makers interested in incorporating sustainability principles into their decision making.     

Developing Statewide Indices of Environmental,Economic, and Social Sustainability: a look at Oregon and the Oregon Benchmarks

This research develops a method to transform the Oregon Benchmarks, a set of internationally recognized quantitative indicators designed to measure a broad array of state-level trends, into indices of social, economic, and environmental sustainability. Through multiple means, an original set of 90 Oregon Benchmarks has been narrowed into a smaller set of sustainability indicators in order to gain an integrated view of statewide sustainability as well as the capacity to look at social, environmental, and economic sustainability in isolation. The three-domain sustainability indices presented here are designed both to understand the current sustainability situation and to create a useful and informative tool for state-level policy makers interested in incorporating sustainability principles into their decision making.     

Hazardous waste indicators for national decision makers

Indicators and indices are important tools that assist decision makers to formulate and implement plans for management at local, national and international levels. Four indicators for hazardous waste management are described that have recently been adopted within the United Nations framework of Indicators of Sustainable Development. Although these four indicators will be useful tools, the need for a broader range of policy-relevant qualitative and quantitative indicators, proxy indicators and indices is outlined. The argument is advanced that in order for all nations to better manage the range of hazardous waste issues, including waste generation, export/import and disposal, a set of innovative indicators and indices is required. Useful indicators and indices are described that could be used to link and quantify likely environmental, ecosystem and health impacts and risks especially from hazardous waste disposal. Indicators are also suggested that could be used to illustrate the shift in industrial strategy away from end-of-pipe processes towards waste recycling, cleaner production and integrated life-cycle analysis. It was concluded that until the lack of reliable and harmonized data on hazardous waste is addressed, indicator development and use by national and international decision makers cannot readily be implemented.     

Developing an Environmental Indicator System for Sustainable Development in China: Two Case Studies of Selected Indicators

Environmental indicator systems are a fundamental tool in quantifying the environmental component of sustainable development. They are useful because they quantify the status and trends of key environmental parameters and provide information on the environment that allows authorities and communities to make informed decisions. This article analyzes the basic framework for Chinese environmental indicator systems and presents a “core” set of environmental indicators. In our research, we used a theme approach to develop the environmental indicator systems. We performed two case studies of selected indicators. In the first, we used an urban ambient air pollution composite index and an urban ambient air pollution indicator for three main pollutants to examine trends in urban air pollution in China from 1990 to 2000 at regional and national levels. The results indicate that China has made some progress towards controlling urban air pollution, but must do more in order to reach acceptable pollution levels. We think that an aggregated index and disaggregated indicators have important complementary roles in the policy-making processes. In the second case study, we developed and constructed a grassland degradation index that aggregates information on the extent and severity of grassland degradation. Taking the Xilinhaote region of Inner Mongolia as the study area, we calculated this index by combining remote-sensing data, a geographical information system (GIS), and field investigation. Based on these results, we provide recommendations regarding further development and measurement of environmental indicators in China.     

A framework for assessing discretionary corporate performance towards the environment

This article reviews the existing models of corporate social responsiveness and develops a theoretical framework with which to examine corporations' discretionary performance with respect to one social issue, that of the environment. Discretionary indicators of corporate response to environmental issues are developed and tested within this framework. Twelve companies from five different sectors were selected for the survey, based on prior knowledge of their commitment to environmental concerns. Primary data was collected from personal interviews, and secondary data was obtained from company documents, annual reports, and other forms of publically disclosed information. Empirical results varied, but certain voluntary indicators, such as composition of the board of directors, the environmental affairs function, community support, and the annual report are considered to provide strong indications of discretionary corporate performance. Philanthropy and company products proved to be less satisfactory indicators of corporate commitment to the environment. The aggregated results revealed a correlation between the final rankings of firms' discretionary environmental performance and whether those companies are process or product oriented. Linkages between discretionary elements and those of economic and legal requirements were not explored.     

The use of aggregate complaints data as an indicator of cumulative social impacts of mining: A case study from the Hunter valley,NSW, Australia

Generally speaking, there is a greater amount of quantitative data available to measure and model the cumulative environmental or economic impacts of mining than the social impacts. In part, this is because social impacts are often inherently more difficult to quantify, but historically there have also been fewer regulatory drivers for companies or state agencies to invest in collecting such data. Regulators in some jurisdictions are now starting to require resource companies to report on aspects of their social performance, but companies and regulators are still struggling to identify appropriate metrics, particularly in regards to cumulative impacts. This paper describes an innovative quantitative approach to tracking how communities experience and respond to increased mining activity, using data from the complaints registers maintained by mines located in the Upper Hunter Valley in New South Wales, Australia. In this study, complaints lodged with five separate mines adjacent to the township of Muswellbrook over several years were aggregated and trends analysed. The aggregated set showed that complaint frequency increased with the increase in mining activity but then decreased as individual complaints were addressed. However, when complaints from near-neighbours were removed, it emerged that the proportion of complaints that came from the town itself steadily increased over time. Further analysis indicated that this increase was closely associated with the amount of mine-disturbed land that could be seen from the town over time, as measured using a combination of remotely sensed data and a digital elevation model. This is persuasive evidence of a cumulative social impact that is more than just the sum of the local impacts of individual mines.     

Ecological assessment of natural resources in agroecosystems of Dutch Lowland Peat area

In ecological assessment many abiotic and biotic indicators, reflecting the many facets of ecosystems, are used. Reporting on the state of the environment requires that information on separate indicators be integrated into comprehensive yardsticks or indices. In this paper we describe a method for assessing the quality of natural resources in agroecosystems and present a case study on the Dutch Lowland Peat area. Using a coherent set of physical, chemical, and biotic indicators, we compare the present situation with the long-term policy objective of strategic policy plans. Results are depicted in a radial plot. The present ecological quality of the Lowland Peat area has been found to deviate strongly from that of the desired state.     

Assessing ICT risk through a Monte Carlo method

To assess and manage the risk due to an information and communication system before its deployment, data of interest can be produced by a Monte Carlo method. This paper presents Haruspex, a software tool that applies a Monte Carlo method to simulate intelligent and adaptive threat agents that reach predefined goals through plan with several attacks. The samples that Haruspex collects are used to compute statistics on the agent’s impacts and their plans as well as to select cost-effective countermeasures. We describe the rationale and the implementation of Haruspex, the inputs it requires and the simulation of how the agents select and implement their plans. After discussing the validation and the performance of the first version of Haruspex, we present a case study and the first set of experimental results.     

How to Quantify Sustainable Development: A Risk-Based Approach to Water Quality Management

Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.     

Indicators as a tool for the evaluation of effective national implementation of the Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (GHS)

This paper briefly outlines the United Nations Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (GHS) and what is meant by GHS implementation in terms of policy-related information for decision-makers plus a framework of actions to enable such policies to be effectively undertaken. The paper discusses the need for simple indicators to measure progress with GHS implementation. Two groups of indicators have been described that comprehensively reflect basic components of GHS implementation. The first group was presented as aggregated indicators or indices, for national capability evaluation. Indicators to evaluate management performance linked to stated objectives were presented as the second group. Information from an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published questionnaire on GHS implementation and a questionnaire by the Intergovernmental Forum on Chemical Safety (IFCS) on chemical safety that included GHS have provided the basic information for applying the management capability indicators approach. Through the use of information in these two questionnaires, country-relevant and regional progress with GHS implementation was illustrated. Despite the GHS implementation target of 2008 set by the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, very few countries have reported they have achieved this target. The simple management indicators proposed in this paper are based on adoption of a questionnaire and a numerical scoring system that could be used to chart progress towards GHS implementation. It was concluded, therefore, that the use of indicators as described in this paper does provide a quick survey of the overall situation in a country and facilitates comparison between countries across regions in terms of GHS implementation. Furthermore such results may indicate which countries require additional assistance with GHS implementation thus strengthening policies and actions across all sectors and involving governments, business, trade, and civil society.     

Indicators Assessment for Habitat Conservation Plan of Yolo County, California, USA

/ Whereas habitat conservation plans (HCPs) have been intended to provide comprehensive environmental mitigation for multiple species, they often narrow in focus to one species and either one mitigation site or unspecified sites. We developed an indicators framework from which to rate land units for their ecological integrity, collateral values (nonbiological qualities that can improve conservation), and restoration and conservation opportunities. The ratings of land units were guided by the tenets of conservation biology and principles of landscape and ecosystem ecology, and they were made using existing physical and floral information managed on a GIS. As an example of how the indicators approach can be used for HCPs, the 29 legally rare species targeted by the Yolo County HCP were each associated with vegetation complexes and agricultural crops, the maps of which were used for rating some of the landscape indices. The ratings were mapped so that mitigation can be directed to the places on the landscape where the legally rare species should benefit most from conservation practices. The most highly rated land units for conservation opportunity occurred along streams and sloughs, especially where they emerged from the foothills and entered the Central Valley and where the two largest creeks intersected the Sacramento River flood basin. We recommend that priority be given to mitigation or conservation at the most highly rated land units. The indices were easy to measure and can be used with other tools to monitor the mitigation success. The indicators framework can be applied to other large-area planning efforts with some modifications.KEY WORDS: Ecosystem; Indicators; Landscape; Mitigation; Planning; Yolo County; California     

A multi-criteria assessment of fishing gear impacts in demersal fisheries

Fishing gears have multiple impacts on the marine environment, and policies to reduce these impacts through modifying fishing gears are becoming common place. Different modifications result in different changes in the set of environmental impacts, and imply different sets of costs and benefits for different stakeholder groups. In this study, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to quantify the relative importance of the environmental impacts of fishing to different stakeholder groups. Forty eight individuals representing six different stakeholder groups (ecologists, biologists, economists, gear technologists, fishers and fisheries managers) were surveyed. As expected, fishers and gear technologists placed substantially greater importance on reducing discarding of commercial fish species than on habitat damage. Priorities of other stakeholder groups varied, but all placed greater priority on habitats than the commercial sector. The results suggest that management aimed at reducing environmental impacts of fishing broader than just discarding is appropriate, but such moves are likely to be opposed by the fishing industry. The derived weights also have a direct application to fisheries management, as they allow otherwise non-commensurate impacts to be aggregated into an overall impact to compare environmental benefits from alternative modifications of fishing gear.     

'Biohyets': a method for displaying the extent and severity of environmental impacts

Bioindicators are often more sensitive indicators of both biodiversity and environmental change than abiotic pollution parameters. The responses of selected plants and animals to anthropogenic insults can be used to assess environmental responses at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. This study maps the response of key reptile, mammal, bird and plant species to airborne contaminants around a large mine and mineral processing operation at Olympic Dam in arid Australia. The responses of different bioindicators should ideally be integrated in order to comprehend overall trends in biological integrity adjacent to pollution sources. Assimilation of different bioindicator responses allows greater precision and geographic coverage of the monitored region and reduces potential distortion from unrelated biological or monitoring responses of individual indicator groups. A single, integrated measure of ecosystem health that overlays the responses of otherwise incompatible datasets, is also of more value to industrial operators and environmental regulators than several disparate responses. Biohyets, which are the contours of bioindicator index values derived from multiple biotic measurements, are here used to map variability in ecosystem health and to identify regions, response variables and disturbance parameters for more rigorous analysis.     

UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME FLOOD ESTIMATES INCORPRATING HISTORICAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: The ability to predict extreme floods is an important part of the planning process for any water project for which failure will be very costly. The length of a gage record available for use in estimating extreme flows is generally much shorter than the recurrence interval of the desired flows, resulting in estimates having a high degree of uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the three parameter lognormal (3PLN) distribution, which make use of historical data, are presented. A Monte Carlo study of extreme flows estimated from samples drawn from three hypothetical 3PLN populations showed that inclusion of historical flows with the gage record reduced the bias and variance of extreme flow estimates. Asymptotic theory approximations of parameter variances and covariances calculated using the second and mixed partial derivatives of the log likelihood function agreed well with Monte Carlo results. First order approximations of the standard deviations of the extreme flow estimates did not agree with the Monte Carlo results. An alternative method for calculating those standard deviations, the “asymptotic simulation” method, is described. The standard deviations calculated by asymptotic simulation agree well with the Monte Carlo results.     

Linking socio-economic factors, environment and land cover in the German Highlands, 1945-1999

Land-cover changes are caused by human activities and natural ecological processes. Thus, our study uses an interdisciplinary approach to research land-cover changes. We present a method to (i) link socio-economic/environmental factors and land-cover changes, (ii) identify indicators of land-cover changes, and (iii) distinguish between socio-economic and environmental indicators associated with local types of overall land-cover changes. The study was conducted in the Lahn-Dill Highlands, Germany, a typical marginal rural landscape. In this region, we investigated land-cover changes occurring over the period 1945-1999. Land-cover data were derived from multi-temporal aerial photographs. Types of overall land-cover changes characterising the districts within the study area were differentiated. With the help of redundancy analysis (RDA), we analysed the relationships between land-cover changes and widely available socio-economic/environmental factors. The results reveal that both individual land-cover changes at patch level and types of overall land-cover changes characterising districts are correlated with socio-economic and environmental factors. Whereas the stable environmental factors are drivers of land-cover changes in our rural study area, socio-economic factors introduced into the analysis mostly result from land-cover changes. We identified correlative socio-economic indicators that cannot explain land-cover changes, but that in combination with the environmental factors can be used to greatly facilitate the reconstruction of past land-cover changes and thus lead to a better knowledge of land-cover history. Based on the types of overall land-cover changes, the results of the study can be adopted for the study of land-cover changes in other regions.     

Hydrological classification of natural flow regimes to support environmental flow assessments in intensively regulated Mediterranean rivers, Segura River Basin (Spain)

Hydrological classification constitutes the first step of a new holistic framework for developing regional environmental flow criteria: the “Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA)”. The aim of this study was to develop a classification for 390 stream sections of the Segura River Basin based on 73 hydrological indices that characterize their natural flow regimes. The hydrological indices were calculated with 25 years of natural monthly flows (1980/81–2005/06) derived from a rainfall-runoff model developed by the Spanish Ministry of Environment and Public Works. These indices included, at a monthly or annual basis, measures of duration of droughts and central tendency and dispersion of flow magnitude (average, low and high flow conditions). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated high redundancy among most hydrological indices, as well as two gradients: flow magnitude for mainstream rivers and temporal variability for tributary streams. A classification with eight flow-regime classes was chosen as the most easily interpretable in the Segura River Basin, which was supported by ANOSIM analyses. These classes can be simplified in 4 broader groups, with different seasonal discharge pattern: large rivers, perennial stable streams, perennial seasonal streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams. They showed a high degree of spatial cohesion, following a gradient associated with climatic aridity from NW to SE, and were well defined in terms of the fundamental variables in Mediterranean streams: magnitude and temporal variability of flows. Therefore, this classification is a fundamental tool to support water management and planning in the Segura River Basin. Future research will allow us to study the flow alteration-ecological response relationship for each river type, and set the basis to design scientifically credible environmental flows following the ELOHA framework.