Sensitivity Analysis of Aggregated Indices for Integrated Assessment with a Case Study of the Mid-Atlantic Region

Environmental indicators are often aggregated into a single index for various purposes in environmental studies. Aggregated indices derived from the same data set can differ, usually because the aggregated indices' sensitivities are not thoroughly analyzed. Furthermore, if a sensitivity analysis is carried out, it is not presented in a transparent fashion to policy decision-makers. This paper presents a method of generating various aggregated environmental indices and analyzing their sensitivities via the use of the fuzzy set concept. Results show that several insights into the environmental conditions of the study area (e.g., the distribution of good or bad values of indicators at a watershed and or across the region) can be revealed in the sensitivity analysis of aggregated indices.     

Self-Organizing Maps for Integrated Environmental Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region

A new method has been developed to perform environmental assessment at regional scale. This involves a combination of a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network and principal component analysis (PCA). The method is capable of clustering ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting relative cumulative environmental impacts of multiple factors across a large region. Using data on land-cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, the method was able to indicate areas that are in relatively poor environmental condition or vulnerable to future deterioration. Combining the strengths of SOM with those of PCA, the method offers an easy and useful way to perform a regional environmental assessment. Compared with traditional clustering and ranking approaches, the described method has considerable advantages, such as providing a valuable means for visualizing complex multidimensional environmental data at multiple scales and offering a single assessment or ranking needed for a regional environmental assessment while still facilitating the opportunity for more detailed analyses.     

Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Integrated Environmental Vulnerability Assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region1

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies.     

Integrating Strategic Environmental Assessment with Industry Planning: A Case Study of the Pasquai-Porcupine Forest Management Plan,Saskatchewan, Canada

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is gaining widespread recognition as a tool for integrating environmental considerations in policy, plan, and program development and decision-making. Notwithstanding the potential of SEA to improve higher-order decision processes, there has been very little attention given to integrating SEA with industry planning practices. As a result, the benefits of SEA have yet to be fully realized among industrial proponents. That said, SEA practice is ongoing, albeit informally and often under a different label, and is proving to be a valuable tool for industry planning and decision-making. Based on a case study of the Pasquai-Porcupine forest management plan in Saskatchewan, Canada, this paper illustrates how an integrated approach to SEA can contribute to industry environmental decision-making and can enhance the quality and deliverability of industry plans.     

MATLAB在环境评价和规划中的应用

本文简述了MATLAB软件的由来和发展,介绍了其主要功能及优点。主要通过在环境评价与规划中的应用实例,展示其在环境科学研究中的应用潜力。文中的第一个实例是MATLAB在多项水质参数的综合评价中的应用,文中对不同的多项水质参数评价方法进行了比较;另一个实例是MATLAB应用于城市固体废物管理规划,极大地提高了规划的水平和准确性,提高了工作效率。最后文中对于该软件在环境学科研究中的应用潜力和优势展开了讨论。     

Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a Korean Watershed1

Abstract: A mix of causative mechanisms may be responsible for flood at a site. Floods may be caused because of extreme rainfall or rain on other rainfall events. The statistical attributes of these events differ according to the watershed characteristics and the causes. Traditional methods of flood frequency analysis are only adequate for specific situations. Also, to address the uncertainty of flood frequency estimates for hydraulic structures, a series of probabilistic analyses of rainfall‐runoff and flow routing models, and their associated inputs, are used. This is a complex problem in that the probability distributions of multiple independent and derived random variables need to be estimated to evaluate the probability of floods. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a flood frequency curve derivation method driven by multiple random variables and to develop a tool that can consider the uncertainties of design floods. This study focuses on developing a flood frequency curve based on nonparametric statistical methods for the estimation of probabilities of rare floods that are more appropriate in Korea. To derive the frequency curve, rainfall generation using the nonparametric kernel density estimation approach is proposed. Many flood events are simulated by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulations coupled with the center Latin hypercube sampling method to estimate the associated uncertainty. This study applies the methods described to a Korean watershed. The results provide higher physical appropriateness and reasonable estimates of design flood.     

Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

玻璃幕墙光污染环境影响评价案例分析

以两栋建筑为例探讨了玻璃幕墙光污染的环境影响评价体系。提出以眩光特征和不舒适眩光评价等级作为评价标准,同时通过计算确定污染范围和控制手段。结果验证了此评价体系的有效性和实用性。     

生态适宜度评价在开发区环评和环境规划中的应用——以江苏常熟东南开发区为例

本文以江苏省常熟东南开发区为研究对象,在开发区的环境影响评价和环境保护规划中引入土地利用生态适宜度评价的方法,建立开发区生态适宜度评价指标体系,并借助GIS技术将数值计算和图形叠置有机结合,实现了对经济开发区土地利用进行生态适宜度评价的定量化研究方法,为经济开发区的合理规划提供决策依据。     

论综合型休闲娱乐场所环境影响评价的工作重点

娱乐及餐饮业近年来发展迅速,开展这类项目的环境影响评价工作首先应确保其环保审批手续的前置性。环评单位应在项目筹划初期介入,工作中应以项目合理选址和提出具有可操作性的污染防治措施这两个侧重面开展工作,作出准确的评价结论,给出可行的污染防治措施及方案。只有这样,才能编制出较为完善的环境影响评价文件,才能达到预防或减轻不良环境影响的最终目的。     

Spatial assessment of the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice on radioactively contaminated land in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia. II. Monte Carlo analysis

A Monte Carlo analysis of two sequential GIS-embedded submodels, which evaluate the economic feasibility of short rotation coppice (SRC) production and energy conversion in areas contaminated by Chernobyl-derived (137)Cs, was performed to allow for variability of environmental conditions that was not contained in the spatial model inputs. The results from this analysis were compared to the results from the deterministic model presented in part I of this paper. It was concluded that, although the variability in the model results due to within-gridcell variability of the model inputs was considerable, the prediction of the areas where SRC and energy conversion is potentially profitable was robust. If the additional variability in the model input that is not contained in the input maps is also taken into account, the SRC production and energy conversion appears to be potentially profitable at more locations for both the small scale and large scale production scenarios than the model predicted using the deterministic model.     

公众参与综合支持指数在环境影响评价中的应用

公众参与是环境影响评价工作中的内容之一。公众参与提出的建议和意见可作为环境规划管理决策的重要依据,应积极落实公众参与在环境规划管理决策的权力。采用公众参与综合支持指数研究公众对开发建设项目的支持程度,将公众参与分为强烈支持、比较支持、一般支持和反对4个等级。实例应用表明,公众参与综合支持指数计算结果与环境管理决策基本一致,公众参与综合支持指数可作为一种定量方法,为环境影响评价、环境规划管理提供决策支持。     

Ecological Impact Assessment in Data-Poor Systems: A Case Study on Metapopulation Persistence

Legislation on the protection of biodiversity (e.g., European Union Habitat and Bird Directives) increasingly requires ecological impact assessment of human activities. However, knowledge and understanding of relevant ecological processes and species responses to different types of impact are often incomplete. In this paper we demonstrate with a case study how impact assessment can be carried out for situations where data are scarce but some expert knowledge is available. The case study involves two amphibian species, the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) and the natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) in the nature reserve the Meinweg in the Netherlands, for which plans are being developed to reopen an old railway track called the Iron Rhine. We assess the effects of this railway track and its proposed alternatives (scenarios) on the metapopulation extinction time and the occupancy times of the patches for both species using a discrete-time stochastic metapopulation model. We quantify the model parameters using expert knowledge and extrapolated data. Because of our uncertainty about these parameter values, we perform a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. This yields an estimate of the probability distribution of the model predictions and insight into the contribution of each distinguished source of uncertainty to this probability distribution. We show that with a simple metapopulation model and an extensive uncertainty analysis it is possible to detect the least harmful scenario. The ranking of the different scenarios is consistent. Thus, uncertainty analysis can enhance the role of ecological impact assessment in decision making by making explicit to what extent incomplete knowledge affects predictions.     

构建土地利用规划环境影响评价的指标体系

20世纪90年代中期,土地科学界和生态学界曾提出:"无论将土地作为生产性利用还是非生产性利用,都会形成一种干扰,使生态环境的不确定性增大,从而降低土地利用规划的科学性和合理性".在这一背景条件下,尝试性地按照土地利用类型对其所带来的环境变化影响与效应进行了分析,并在此基础上构建土地利用规划环境影响评价指标体系及可采用的评价方法.     

On the Design of Computer-Based Models for Integrated Environmental Science

The current research agenda in environmental science is dominated by calls to integrate science and policy to better understand and manage links between social (human) and natural (nonhuman) processes. Freshwater resource management is one area where such calls can be heard. Designing computer-based models for integrated environmental science poses special challenges to the research community. At present it is not clear whether such tools, or their outputs, receive much practical policy or planning application. It is argued that this is a result of (1) a lack of appreciation within the research modeling community of the characteristics of different decision-making processes including policy, planning, and (2) participation, (3) a lack of appreciation of the characteristics of different decision-making contexts, (4) the technical difficulties in implementing the necessary support tool functionality, and (5) the socio-technical demands of designing tools to be of practical use. This article presents a critical synthesis of ideas from each of these areas and interprets them in terms of design requirements for computer-based models being developed to provide scientific information support for policy and planning. Illustrative examples are given from the field of freshwater resources management. Although computer-based diagramming and modeling tools can facilitate processes of dialogue, they lack adequate simulation capabilities. Component-based models and modeling frameworks provide such functionality and may be suited to supporting problematic or messy decision contexts. However, significant technical (implementation) and socio-technical (use) challenges need to be addressed before such ambition can be realized.     

四川省广安市旅游环境承载力评价研究

本文构建了旅游环境承载力模型，对广安市旅游环境容量进行定量分析，提出了提高环境承载力的对策与建议。     

浙江省庆元县甜桔柚产地环境质量监测与评价

无公害产品产地农业生态环境质量是影响无公害产品质量的重要因子之一,对丽水市庆元县甜桔柚基地农业环境质量的调查和监测表明,庆元县无公害甜桔柚基地符合无公害产品的环境质量要求。     

氟化学工业项目环境影响评价的特点

本文在给出氟特性的基础上,分析了国际和国内氟化学工业发展的背景和趋势,氟化学工业的环境影响评价关注了从全球的到局部的生态环境问题,有其特殊的重点和内容,文章指出产业政策分析、生物监测、产品结构和产业链分析等氟化工项目环境影响评价的特点,结合其生产工艺和产品,提出了氟化工项目环境影响评价的重点。     

规划环境影响评价(PEIA)技术框架与指标体系构建初探

对实施规划环境影响评价的原则进行了分析;重点探讨了实施规划环境影响评价的技术框架和规划环境影响评价指标体系的构建,指出在形成规划方案时,是规划环境影响评价介入的最佳时间,提出建立规划环境影响评价指标体系的两种模式--＂生态-环境-资源与能源利用-社会-经济＂模式和基于DPSIR框架的指标模式,讨论了运用层次分析法（AHP）确定指标权重的过程.