Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale

Understanding the impacts of climate change on viticulture is especially essential in those areas producing high-quality wines. In this work, we create an operational framework to investigate climate change impact on viticulture in the Tuscany region (central Italy) the viticulture industry of which relies on producing high-quality wines to compete in a global market. The framework includes (i) statistical downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs for the period 1975–2099 to a local scale; (ii) the use of downscaling outputs as driving variables in specific simulation models; (iii) the spatial interpolation of model outputs to feed an economic and (iv) a quality model. The results show that as a consequence of a progressive increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall, (a) the area potentially suitable for grapevine cultivation increases; (b) the grapevine growth cycle becomes shorter; (c) the final yield is gradually reduced, particularly in those areas characterised by quality cultivation regulation; and d) the premium wine quality production areas shift towards higher elevations. The proposed framework revealed itself to be an effective tool for climate change impact assessment at a very local scale. Additionally, this approach may be easily extended to testing the effect of different adaptation strategies in terms of management practices (e.g. irrigation) and grape varieties (e.g. longer or shorter cycle, advanced or delayed bud burst).     

Occupational dosimetric assessment (inhalation pathway) from the application of phosphogypsum in agriculture in South West Spain

Phosphogypsum (PG) has been traditionally applied as Ca-amendment in saline marsh soils in SW Spain, where available PG has 710 ± 40 Bq kg⁻¹ of ²²⁶Ra. This work assesses the potential radiological risk for farmers through ²²²Rn exhalation from PG-amended soils and by inhalation of PG-dust during its application. A three-year field experiment was conducted in a commercial farm involving two treatments: control and 25 t PG ha⁻¹ with three replicates (each 0.5 ha plots). The ²²²Rn exhalation rate was positively correlated with potential evapotranspiration, which explained 67% of the variability. Statistically significant differences between the control and PG treatments were not found for ²²²Rn exhalation rates, and mean values were within the lowest quartile of the typical range for ²²²Rn exhalation from soils. Airborne dust samples were collected during the application of PG and sugar-beet sludge amendments. The highest PG-attributable ²²⁶Ra concentration in the dust samples was 3.3 × 10² μBq m⁻³, implying negligible dose increment for exposed workers.     

Regional-scale application of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS: an example of assessment of the radiological impact of the Chernobyl accident on the fresh water ecosystem in Italy

The present work illustrates the customisation and application of the decision support system MOIRA-PLUS (a MOdel-based computerised system for management support to Identify optimal remedial strategies for Restoring radionuclide contaminated Aquatic ecosystems and drainage areas) to the fresh water environment in Italy. MOIRA-PLUS is aimed at evaluating the behaviour of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in fresh water ecosystems and at assessing the appropriateness of suitable strategies for the management of contaminated water bodies by the application of multi-attribute analysis techniques. MOIRA-PLUS can be applied to complex networks of lakes, rivers and tributaries and can be straightforwardly customised utilising data and information from readily accessible sources such as official websites provided by scientific or government organisations. The present work shows an application of the decision system to 10 lakes and 18 rivers in Italy contaminated with ¹³⁷Cs of Chernobyl origin. Site-specific values of some aggregated transfer parameters were estimated for the most important Italian lakes. Although high values of fish and water consumptions were hypothesised, very low doses to public from the fresh water pathway following the accident were calculated.     

Extension of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for long term dose assessment of high level nuclear waste disposal sites to uncertainties in the human behaviour

Biosphere dose conversion factors are computed for the French high-level geological waste disposal concept and to illustrate the combined probabilistic and deterministic approach. Both ¹³⁵Cs and ⁷⁹Se are used as examples. Probabilistic analyses of the system considering all parameters, as well as physical and societal parameters independently, allow quantification of their mutual impact on overall uncertainty. As physical parameter uncertainties decreased, for example with the availability of further experimental and field data, the societal uncertainties, which are less easily constrained, particularly for the long term, become more and more significant. One also has to distinguish uncertainties impacting the low dose portion of a distribution from those impacting the high dose range, the latter having logically a greater impact in an assessment situation. The use of cumulative probability curves allows us to quantify probability variations as a function of the dose estimate, with the ratio of the probability variation (slope of the curve) indicative of uncertainties of different radionuclides. In the case of ¹³⁵Cs with better constrained physical parameters, the uncertainty in human behaviour is more significant, even in the high dose range, where they increase the probability of higher doses. For both radionuclides, uncertainties impact more strongly in the intermediate than in the high dose range. In an assessment context, the focus will be on probabilities of higher dose values. The probabilistic approach can furthermore be used to construct critical groups based on a predefined probability level and to ensure that critical groups cover the expected range of uncertainty.     

Treating design uncertainty in the application of Eco-indicator 99 with Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy intervals

In incremental eco-design improvements, design engineers attempt to modify an existing product via some eco-design measures to reduce the product’s environmental impacts (e.g. reduction of material usage and energy consumption). In this process, several design concepts can be proposed, and concept selection is required to allocate resources sensibly to promising design concepts only. In this context, the research purpose is to estimate the environmental impacts of each concept given the uncertainty of design information. In the proposed methodology, the fuzzy interval arithmetic is used to specify and propagate imprecise design information. Then, the centroid concept is applied to model different views of imprecision (i.e. pessimistic, balanced and optimistic) associated with fuzzy impact assessment. Accordingly, a decision scheme is developed to support concept selection and suggest the potential areas for further eco-design improvements. A coffee maker is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Also, the Monte Carlo Simulation is applied for the same example to compare the numerical outcomes by the fuzzy interval approach.     

An assessment of the external radiological impact in areas of Greece with elevated natural radioactivity

In the present study, the radiological impact assessment in three selected areas of elevated natural radioactivity in Greece is attempted, based on measurements, theoretical relations, and simple model application. These areas are Milos--an island of volcanic origin in Cyclades Archipelago, Ikaria--an island in the Eastern Aegean Sea and Loutraki--a coastal area in mainland Greece. These areas are characterized by their geothermal springs and vents, which emit fluids into the littoral and sublittoral zones. The results include: (a) the exposure dose rates assessed by a car-borne scintillation spectrometry system; (b) laboratory measurements of the activity concentrations of the gamma-emitters of 238U and 232Th series and 40K in soil, spring water, seawater and sediments by gamma-spectrometry; (c) estimations of the effective dose rate equivalents and health risk assessment for humans and external dose rates for natural aquatic populations in relation to organism habitat; and (d) a radiological evaluation for the environmental quality, in terms of the discrete zones of impact of ionizing radiation.     

节约型社会指标体系框架设计与广东节约水平现状评价

节约型社会指标体系贯穿了循环经济的思想，包括减量化、再使用再循环、节约支撑能力、资源禀赋变化与弹性系数等4领域共51个指标。应用该指标体系估算结果表明，广东省节能、节地、节水、节材、减污、资源化等核心指标目前高于全国平均水平，且每年均有所提升。高新技术产业产值占工业总产值比重、第三产业比重、行政管理费用所占GDP在全国属于领先地位，反映广东与其它地区的差异已经从数量的差异发展为结构性差异。GDP质量优于全国平均水平。但能源消费弹性系数反映出粗放型特征没有根本转变。水环境功能区水质达标率偏低，在制度支撑、科技支撑、教育支撑指标等方面亟待改进。     

Concentrations of PCDD/PCDFs and PCBs in retail foods and an assessment of dietary intake for local population of Shenzhen in China

OBJECTIVES: Concentrations of 17 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and 18 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in 11 varieties of food groups collected from retail market of Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China from 2004 to 2006. PCDD/Fs and PCBs dietary intake from varies food for the local population was estimated in the study. METHODS: Concentrations of 17 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and 12 dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) as well as 6 marker PCBs were measured in 11 varieties of food groups in total 110 food samples by isotope dilution HRGC/HRMS. PCDD/Fs and PCBs dietary intake for local population was estimated using total WHO-TEQ concentration and different food consumption amount of the local population. RESULTS: The median WHO-TEQ concentrations of sum of PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs varied from 0.0093 pg/g (parts per trillion) in vegetable to 9.89 pg/g in fish. Fish was followed by egg 2.46, chicken 1.73, beef 0.94, mutton 0.82, duck 0.39, pork 0.37, milk powder 0.25, vegetable oil 0.076, cereals 0.022 pg/g and vegetable. The monthly intake of PCDD/Fs and PCBs were 40.9 pg WHO-TEQ/kg b.w. for local population. Sum of fish, livestock, and poultry contributed 77% to the Estimated Monthly Intake (EMI) in local population. CONCLUSION: Estimated dietary intake of PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs for local population was below the provisional tolerable monthly intake(PTMI) set by Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA).     

An analysis of cleaner production and its impact on health hazards in the workplace

The main focus of this paper is to bring out the cost effectiveness of cleaner production and the role played by cleaner production in minimizing the health hazards of pollutants in the workplace. Improvement in workplace health hazards due to implementation of cleaner production has been illustrated with the results of the study. This study was carried out in 16 Manufacturing units in two states of Maharashtra and Gujarat in India. The results clearly shows with the help of cost benefit analysis that cleaner technologies not only add to the bottom line of the company but also minimize exposure to toxic chemicals like Ammonia, phenol, carbon tetrachloride, toxic dust, etc. The main driving forces motivating the firms to go in for cleaner production are evaluated. It is found that in most of the units safety and health factors were ranked as one among the first four driving forces behind implementation of cleaner technologies. The paper ends with recommendations for the promotion of cleaner technologies.     

Strategic environmental assessment application for sustainable transport-related air quality policies: a case study in Hanoi City,Vietnam

Recognition has grown among policy-makers that early in the decision-making process, there is a need for an environmental assessment of the effects of the policy, plan, and program (PPP) and their alternatives. Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is widely recognized as a supporting tool that systematically integrates environmental aspects into strategic decision-making processes, thereby contributing to sustainable development. In this study, SEA was applied for an integrated assessment of environmental, social, and economic impacts of a wide range of scenarios for transport-related air quality policies to help decision-makers in identifying the most sustainable scenario with the purpose of reducing carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations from transport emissions in Hanoi City, Vietnam. In conducting SEA process, the urban air dispersion model MUAIR was used as a quantitative tool in prediction of CO concentrations. To evaluate the predicted impacts of scenarios, the SEA objectives concerning sustainability and the corresponding sustainable indicators were identified. Based on the likely significant predicted impacts on landscape, biodiversity, and health benefits, mitigation measures were proposed. These included planning in infrastructure development and implementation of public education campaign. The results of predicted and evaluated impacts of scenarios as well as proposed mitigation measures were taken into account for supporting sound decision-making that is consistent with the principles of sustainable development. Considering sustainable impacts of the scenarios, the SEA result clearly indicates that a combination of policy for public transport development and policy for installation of oxidation catalytic converter for motorcycles is the most sustainable scenario for reducing CO concentrations from transport emissions.     

A geographic information system-based socioeconomic impact assessment of the broadening of national highway in Sikkim Himalayas: a case study

Socioeconomic impact assessment (SEIA) is an undermined area of environmental impact assessment of highway projects. The problem becomes even more pronounced in remote and difficult terrains. The challenge in data gathering and impact prediction in mountainous areas can be mitigated using Geographic Information System (GIS). In this paper, an attempt has been made to apply the techniques of GIS and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to perform a rapid SEIA on broadening of national highway in a mountainous terrain like Sikkim. The proposed spatial impact model shows the distribution of impacts of highway broadening on socioeconomic attributes and generates a composite impact inventory map. The composite impact is found to be slightly to moderately beneficial for the study area. Cross-validation of Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) and sensitivity analysis have also been carried out for model evaluation. Cross-validation results show a reliable spatial interpolation. Sensitivity analysis shows a robust decision model and identifies the socioeconomic attributes to which the spatial impact model is sensitive. The study presents a novel methodology of rapid spatial SEIA.     

Determining the Chernobyl impact on sediments of a pre-Alpine lake with a very comprehensive set of data

Man-made and natural radionuclides in Lake Wallersee were determined in the pre-Alpine environment at the northern slope of the Alps, which was heavily affected by the Chernobyl fallout in May 1986. The objective of this study was to get knowledge of location and quantity of man-made radionuclide input (especially (137)Cs) generated in the Chernobyl accident to lake sediments. Eleven sediment cores were sampled and activity depth profiles of (137)Cs and (210)Pb were determined with 5mm depth-resolution. The Chernobyl fallout produced an extreme (137)Cs peak in the sediment cores providing an excellent time marker. The chronological interpretation of deeper sediment layers was done by radiochemical analysis of (90)Sr and (239+240)Pu, which were released during atmospheric weapons' tests in the 1950s and 1960s. This allowed a complete chronological analysis of the sediment cores with a very compact set of data.     

Exposure to heavy metals and PCDD/Fs by the population living in the vicinity of a hazardous waste landfill in Catalonia, Spain: Health risk assessment

Most fly ashes produced in municipal waste incinerators of Catalonia (Spain) are deposited in a hazardous waste landfill (HWL) placed in Castellolí (Barcelona). This facility means a concern for the population living nearby. In response to this, we performed a probabilistic study focused on assessing human health risks derived from environmental exposure to heavy metals and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) around the HWL. Concentrations of various metals and PCDD/Fs were determined in soil and air samples collected at the HWL, and in 4 locations around it. Health risks were evaluated according to the distance from the sampling locations to the HWL (near and far-sites). In general terms, metal and PCCD/F levels were relatively low in air and soil samples. However, concentrations of PCDD/Fs, as well as those of some metals, were found to be relatively higher in the HWL and Castellolí (the nearest village) samples than in those collected far away, resulting in a slight increase of exposure to those pollutants. Anyhow, the current concentrations of metals and PCDD/Fs suggest that it is highly unlikely that there are any additional non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks for the population living near the HWL.     

A dynamic model for assessing radiological consequences of routine releases in the Loire river: parameterisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis

A dynamic model for assessing the transfer of several radionuclides ((58)Co, (60)Co, (110 m)Ag, (134)Cs, (137)Cs, (54)Mn and (131)I) in a food-chain was applied on the Loire river, where 14 nuclear power plants situated on five different sites operate. The model considers the following potential exposure pathways: (i) transfer of radionuclides through the aquatic food chain and the subsequent internal exposure of humans due to ingestion of contaminated water and/or fish; (ii) use of river water for agricultural purposes (irrigation), transfer of radionuclides through the terrestrial food chain and the subsequent internal exposure of humans due to ingestion of contaminated foodstuffs; (iii) internal exposure due to inhalation of dust originating from resuspension of contaminated soil particles; (iv) external exposure from radionuclides present in the river or deposited on the river sediments or the soil. For each of the parameters introduced in this model, a probability density function, allowing further uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, was proposed. Uncertainty/sensitivity analysis were performed to: (i) compare calculations to empirical data; (ii) determine a confidence interval for the mean annual dose to critical groups; and (iii) identify the parameters responsible for the uncertainty and subsequent research priorities.     

Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to spatial policies of land occupation, size and year of establishment of properties, accessibility measures and soil fertility. The analysis was made based on remote sensing data and household level data gathered with a questionnaire. Both types of analyses indicate that the highest level of total deforestation is found inside agrarian projects, especially in those established more than 20 years ago. Even though deforestation rates are similar inside and outside official settlements, inside agrarian projects forest depletion can exceed 50% at the property level within 10–14 years after establishment. The data indicate that both small-scale and medium to large-scale farmers contribute to deforestation processes in Rondônia State encouraged by spatial policies of land occupation, which provide better accessibility to forest fringes where soil fertility and forest resources are important determinants of location choice.     

Climatic changes and their impact on socio-economic sectors in the Bhutan Himalayas: an implementation strategy

This paper contributes to an enhanced understanding of present climatic conditions, observed climate trends and regional climate vulnerability of the Bhutan Himalayas. Bhutan’s complex, often high-altitude terrain and the severe impact of the Indian summer monsoon leads to a strong exposure of the countries’ key economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, hydropower generation and tourism) to climatic changes. Climate change also threatens Bhutan’s vast biodiversity and increases the likelihood of natural hazards (e.g. glacier lake outburst floods, flash floods, droughts and forest fires). A better understanding of Bhutan’s climate and its variability, as well as observed and possible climate impacts, will help in improving the handling of regional social, economic and ecologic challenges not limited to the Himalayas. Only a few climatological studies exist for the eastern Himalayas. They mainly focus on adaptation to immediate threats by glacier lake outbursts. In contrast, this paper (1) investigates the average spatial and inner-annual diversity of the air temperature regime of Bhutan, based on local meteorological observations, (2) discusses past temperature variability, based on global datasets, and (3) relates effects of observed warming to water availability, hydropower development, natural hazards, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, human health and tourism in the Bhutan Himalayas. Results indicate a large spatial and temporal temperature variability within Bhutan and considerably increasing temperatures especially over recent decades. Implications of regional climatic changes on various socio-economic sectors and possible adaptation efforts are discussed.