Size-related bioaccumulation and between-year variation of organochlorines in ice-associated amphipods from the Arctic Ocean

Organochlorines are found even in organisms living in remote areas such as the Arctic marginal ice zone. Organochlorine concentrations in ice-associated (sympagic) amphipods are related to their diet. Therefore, the size-dependent diet shift of Gammarus wilkitzkii may influence its organochlorine content. In this preliminary study, the organochlorine concentrations in two size classes (small 29 mm and large >29 mm) of G. wilkitzkii were analysed. The concentrations of more lipophilic compounds [e.g. polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)] were lower in the small than the large size class, whereas concentrations of less lipophilic compounds [e.g. hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs)] did not differ by size class.

Since contamination transport by the atmosphere, ocean currents and sea ice may vary, the organochlorine burden in sympagic organisms may also vary. There are no data available on temporal variation of organochlorine burden in Arctic sympagic fauna. Therefore, we compared organochlorine concentrations in sympagic amphipods (G. wilkitzkii, Apherusa glacialis and Onisimus spp.) between 1998 and 1999. Organochlorine concentrations in all amphipods were low in both years, with sum organochlorines from 50.7 to 621.9 ng g⁻¹ lipid weight. The concentrations of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), chlordanes, DDTs and PCBs were higher in 1999 than 1998, whereas the HCH concentrations were lower in 1999 than 1998. The organochlorine concentrations differed between the taxa in both years in a similar increasing manner from A. glacialis to both G. wilkitzkii and Onisimus spp.

In studies of bioaccumulation relative to body size and temporal variation, a thorough interpretation requires samples from several size classes and years. Nevertheless, the present data provide new knowledge on contaminants in Arctic invertebrates where data are scarce.     

Biomagnification of organochlorines along a Barents Sea food chain

To trace the biomagnification of organochlorines in marine food chains near Svalbard, which may lead to the high organochlorine concentrations in top predators from the area, we compared concentrations and patterns of organochlorines in selected taxa. The pelagic crustaceans, Calanus spp. (copepods), Thysanoessa spp. (euphausiids), Parathemisto libellula (amphipod), and the fish species, Boreogadus saida (polar cod) and Gadus morhua (cod) were selected to represent the lower trophic levels in the food web. Four seabird species were chosen at the higher trophic levels, Uria lomvia (Brünnich's guillemot), Cepphus grylle (black guillemot), Rissa tridactyla (black-legged kittiwake) and Larus hyperboreus (glaucous gull). We found low concentrations of the organochlorines sigma hexachlorocyclohexanes (sigma HCHs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), sigma Chlordanes, sigma DDTs and sigma polychlorinated biphenyls (sigma PCBs) in crustaceans (11-50 ng g-1 lipid wt.) and fish (15-222 ng g-1 lipid wt.). In seabirds, the organochlorine concentrations biomagnified one to three orders of magnitude dependent on species and compound class. Glaucous gulls had the highest concentrations of all organochlorines. The organochlorine levels in all taxa except glaucous gull were comparable to those recorded in similar species in the Canadian Arctic. The organochlorine pattern changed from crustaceans and fish to seabirds. Moving up the food chain, the relative contribution of sigma HCHs, HCB and sigma Chlordanes decreased, and the relative contribution of sigma DDTs, sigma PCBs, persistent compounds and metabolites increased. The results reflected trophic transfer of organochlorines along the food chain as well as different elimination potentials due to direct diffusion in crustaceans and fish, and higher contaminant metabolic activity in seabirds.     

PCBs and chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides in Antarctic atmosphere and hydrosphere

PCBs and chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides such as DDTs and HCHs (BHCs) were measured in air, water, ice and snow samples collected around the Japanese research stations in Antarctica and adjacent oceans during December 1980 to March 1982. The atmospheric concentrations of chlorinated hydrocarbons decreased in the transport process from northern lands to Antarctica, but the compositions of PCBs, DDT compounds and HCH isomers were relatively uniform throughout this process. Regional and seasonal variations were found in aerial concentrations of these pollutants at Syowa Station and adjacent seas in Antarctica. Chlorinated hydrocarbons were also detected in snow, ice, lake water and sea water samples, in which rather high concentrations were found in snow and ice samples. This suggests that snow and ice serve as media of supply of these pollutants into Antarctic marine environment. Most interestingly, the concentrations of DDTs and higher chlorinated biphenyls were much lower in sea water under fast ice than in that from outer margin of pack ice. This indicates that the active removal of these pollutants is occurred in the sea under fast ice, and that is strongly associated with high primary productivity. It is, therefore, presumed that the concentrations of PCBs and DDTs in marine organisms living under fast ice in Antarctica could be lower than those in other oceans.     

Sea ice and primary production proxies in surface sediments from a High Arctic Greenland fjord: Spatial distribution and implications for palaeoenvironmental studies

In order to establish a baseline for proxy-based reconstructions for the Young Sound–Tyrolerfjord system (Northeast Greenland), we analysed the spatial distribution of primary production and sea ice proxies in surface sediments from the fjord, against monitoring data from the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Programme. Clear spatial gradients in organic carbon and biogenic silica contents reflected marine influence, nutrient availability and river-induced turbidity, in good agreement with in situ measurements. The sea ice proxy IP₂₅ was detected at all sites but at low concentrations, indicating that IP₂₅ records from fjords need to be carefully considered and not directly compared to marine settings. The sea ice-associated biomarker HBI III revealed an open-water signature, with highest concentrations near the mid-July ice edge. This proxy evaluation is an important step towards reliable palaeoenvironmental reconstructions that will, ultimately, contribute to better predictions for this High Arctic ecosystem in a warming climate.     

Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.     

Can a key boreal Calanus copepod species now complete its life-cycle in the Arctic? Evidence and implications for Arctic food-webs

The changing Arctic environment is affecting zooplankton that support its abundant wildlife. We examined how these changes are influencing a key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus, principally found in the North Atlantic but expatriated to the Arctic. Close to the ice-edge in the Fram Strait, we identified areas that, since the 1980s, are increasingly favourable to C. finmarchicus. Field-sampling revealed part of the population there to be capable of amassing enough reserves to overwinter. Early developmental stages were also present in early summer, suggesting successful local recruitment. This extension to suitable C. finmarchicus habitat is most likely facilitated by the long-term retreat of the ice-edge, allowing phytoplankton to bloom earlier and for longer and through higher temperatures increasing copepod developmental rates. The increased capacity for this species to complete its life-cycle and prosper in the Fram Strait can change community structure, with large consequences to regional food-webs.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01667-y.     

Declining extent of open-water refugia for top predators in Baffin Bay and adjacent waters

Global climate change is expected to severely impact Arctic ecosystems, yet predictions of impacts are complicated by region-specific patterns and nonuniform trends. Twentyfour open-water overwintering areas (or "microhabitats") were identified to be of particular importance for eight seabird and marine mammal species in the eastern Canadian High Arctic and Baffin Bay. Localized trends in the available fraction of open-water were examined in March during 1979--2001, derived from approximate sea ice concentrations from satellite-based microwave telemetry. Declines in the fraction of open-water were identified at microhabitats in Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, coastal West Greenland, and Lancaster Sound. Increases in open-water were observed in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin. The biological importance of each microhabitat was examined based on species distribution and abundance. Potential consequences of reduced open-water for top marine predators include impacts on foraging efficiency and oxygen and prey availability.     

Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in California sea lions

Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDTs, chlordanes, HCHs, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), dieldrin, heptachlor epoxide, tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane (TCPMe), and tris(4-chlorophenyl)methanol (TCPMOH) were measured in the blubber of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) collected in 2000. DDTs were the most predominant contaminants, followed by PCBs, chlordanes, TCPMe, HCHs, TCPMOH, dieldrin, and heptachlor epoxide. Concentrations of PCBs and DDTs varied from a few microg/g to several hundreds of microg/g on a lipid weight basis. Concentrations of DDTs have declined by an order of magnitude over the last three decades in California sea lions; nevertheless, the measured concentrations of PCBs and DDTs in California sea lions are still some of the highest values reported for marine mammals in recent years. Concentrations of organochlorines were highly correlated with one another. Concentrations of PCBs and DDTs in the blubber of gray whale, humpback whale, northern elephant seal, and harbor seal, and in the adipose fat of sea otter, were lower than the levels found in California sea lions, and were in the range of a few to several microg/g on a lipid weight basis.     

Organochlorine burdens in blood of ringed and bearded seals from north-western Svalbard.

Ringed seal (Phoca hispida) and bearded seal (Erignathus barbatus) are the main prey of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and information on organochlorines (OCs) in these pinniped species is important to understand the transport, fate and effects of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic ecosystem. Thus, OCs were analysed in blood samples of bearded and ringed seals from the coastal ecosystem of the north-western Svalbard archipelago (Kongsfjorden, 78.55degrees N). The relative contribution of OCs could be ranked as follows: Ringed seal females: sigmaPCB > sigma DDT > sigma CHL > sigma HCH > HCB > Mirex. Ringed seal males: sigma PCB > or = sigma DDT > sigma CHL > sigma HCH > or = HCB > Mirex. Bearded seal females: sigma PCB > sigma HCH > or = sigma CHL > sigma DDT > Mirex > HCB. Bearded seal males: sigma PCB > sigma DDT > or = sigma CHL > sigma HCH > Mirex > or = HCB. The concentrations of sigmaPCB and sigma DDT were higher in ringed seals than in bearded seals, whereas sigma HCH was higher in bearded than in ringed seals. In ringed seal females and males sigma PCB was 337 +/- 95 ng/g (n= 6) and 625 +/- 443 ng/g (n=6), whereas sigma DDT was 165 +/- 47 ng/g (n=6) and 621 +/- 559 ng/g (n = 6), respectively. In bearded seal females and males, sigmaPCB was 159 +/- 132 ng/g (n = 6) and 248 +/- 93 ng/g (n = 5), whereas sigmaDDT was 46 +/- 41 ng/g (n = 6) and 161 +/- 71 ng/g (n = 5), respectively. The inter-species differences are caused by a higher trophic position of ringed seals in the Svalbard ecosystem compared to bearded seals. OC levels in ringed seals at Svalbard are similar to those reported from the North-American Arctic and in the lower range compared to previously reported data from Svalbard.     

Cumulative effects of climate warming and other human activities on freshwaters of Arctic and subarctic North America

Despite their generally isolated geographic locations, the freshwaters of the north are subjected to a wide spectrum of environmental stressors. High-latitude regions are especially sensitive to the effects of recent climatic warming, which have already resulted in marked regime shifts in the biological communities of many Arctic lakes and ponds. Important drivers of these limnological changes have included changes in the amount and duration of snow and ice cover, and, for rivers and lakes in their deltas, the frequency and extent of spring floods. Other important climate-related shifts include alterations in evaporation and precipitation ratios, marked changes in the quality and quantity of lake and river water inflows due to accelerated glacier and permafrost melting, and declining percentages of precipitation that falls as snow. The depletion of stratospheric ozone over the north, together with the clarity of many Arctic lakes, renders them especially susceptible to damage from ultraviolet radiation. In addition, the long-range atmospheric transport of pollutants, coupled with the focusing effects of contaminant transport from biological vectors to some local ecosystems (e.g., salmon nursery lakes, ponds draining seabird colonies) and biomagnification in long food chains, have led to elevated concentrations of many persistent organic pollutants (e.g., insecticides, which have never been used in Arctic regions) and other pollutants (e.g., mercury). Rapid development of gas and oil pipelines, mining for diamonds and metals, increases in human populations, and the development of all-season roads, seaports, and hydroelectric dams will stress northern aquatic ecosystems. The cumulative effects of these stresses will be far more serious than those caused by changing climate alone.     

Occurrence of PAHs, PCBs and organochlorine pesticides in the Tonghui River of Beijing, China

Tonghui River, a typical river in Beijing, People's Republic of China, was studied for its water and sediment quality, by determining the levels of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), 12 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and 18 organochlorine pesticides in water and sediment samples. Total PAHs, PCBs and organochlorine pesticides concentrations in water varied from 192.5 to 2651 ng/l, 31.58-344.9 ng/l and 134.9-3788 ng/l, respectively. The total PAHs, PCBs and organochlorine pesticides concentrations in surficial sediments were 127-928 ng/g, 0.78-8.47 ng/g and 1.79-13.98 ng/g dry weight, respectively. The results showed that the concentration of these selected organic pollutants in sediment was higher than those in surface water. It may be due to the fact that organic hydrophobic pollutants tend to stay in the sediments. The PAHs were dominated by 2-, 3-ring components in water samples and by 3- and 4-ring compounds in sediment. For organochlorines, alpha-HCH, delta-HCH, Heptachlor, Endosulfan II, DDT are the major organochlorine pesticides in water while Heptachlor, Dieldrin and DDE composed of 95% of total organochlorine pesticides in sediment. For HCHs (HCHs=alpha-HCH+beta-HCH+gamma-HCH+delta-HCH), the predominance of alpha-HCH of total HCHs were clearly observed in water and sediment. PCB18, PCB31 and PCB52 were predominant in water, on average these compounds collectively accounted for 67% of total PCBs. But in sediment, the predominant compounds were PCB28, PCB31 and PCB153, which accounted for 71% of total PCBs in sediment. The levels of micro pollutants in our study areas were compared with other studies.     

The record of anthropogenic pollution in snow and ice in Svalbard,Norway

From the examination of the spatial distribution of pollutants and of the record from ice cores, it is demonstrated that Svalbard is strongly affected by anthropogenic pollution. This pollution has caused an increase of approximately 90% in the acidity of the snow deposited in the Archipelago since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. High concentrations of H⁺, frequently greater than 10 μeq l⁻¹ (i.e. with pHs lower than 5.0), associated with high concentrations of sulphates, indicate that Svalbard is experiencing the phenomenon of acid deposition. The first part of this work reviews the existing knowledge of atmospheric, snow, and ice pollution in Svalbard. This is followed by an examination of the acidity time series, supported by excess-sulphate measurements, performed on an ice core from central-eastern Spitsbergen that provide a historical record of acid deposition over a 54 year period. An ice core recovered from Austfonna, Nordaustlandet provided baseline values and also a record of acidity in precipitation before and during the entire industrial period, thereby allowing the evolution of acid deposition in the Archipelago to be traced. The records of these two Svalbard cores also reflect the overall regional trends.     

High levels of organochlorines in mothers' milk from Chennai (Madras) city, India

Mothers' milk from Chennai (formerly Madras), India and three other places Perungudi, the municipal dumping site of south Chennai area (situated at the suburb of Chennai), Chidambaram, a predominantly agricultural town situated 250 km south of Chennai and Parangipettai, a fishing village 15 km north of Chidambaram, all situated at or near the southeastern Bay of Bengal coast of India were found to contain measurable concentrations of HCHs, DDTs, PCBs, CHLs and HCB. A notable finding in this study is that Chennai mothers have higher levels of HCHs in their milk and hence may transfer considerably higher amounts of the chemical than the mothers from all the other three places of the present study indicating a higher health risk to Chennai's children. It was also found that the levels of the two organochlorine pesticides (HCHs and DDTs) increased in Chennai mothers' milk in the last decade. Food items collected from Chennai markets did not show any remarkably higher levels of any of the chemicals measured in this study. Levels of the two classical organochlorines (DDTs and HCHs) have declined in many of the food items when compared with our data collected two decades before in the same locations, showing the effectiveness of the recent ban on both these chemicals in the country. The sources, possible health risks and the ways to curtail the effects of HCHs, especially at Chennai, should be investigated further.     

Persistent organochlorines in human breast milk collected from primiparae in Dalian and Shenyang, China

The present study determined the concentrations of organochlorines (OCs) such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs), hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (HCHs), chlordane compounds (CHLs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and tris(4-chlorophenyl)methane (TCPMe) in human breast milk collected from primiparae in Dalian and Shenyang, northeastern China during 2002. In addition, dioxins and related compounds in pooled samples of human breast milk from Dalian and Shenyang were also analyzed. OCs were detected in all the human breast milk samples analyzed in this study. The predominant contaminants in human breast milk were HCHs, DDTs and HCB, and the levels were relatively higher than those in other countries. On the other hand, concentrations of dioxins and related compounds, PCBs, and CHLs were relatively low. Concentrations of OCs in human breast milk from Dalian, which is located along the coast of Bo Hai Strait, were significantly higher than those from Shenyang, implying that the residents in Dalian might be mainly exposed to these contaminants from seafood. When the relationship between concentrations of OCs in human breast milk and age of primiparae was examined, no significant correlation was observed. This might be caused by the limited sample numbers and narrow range of mother's age and/or recent ban of DDT and HCH production and use. Significant correlation between concentrations of TCPMe and DDTs in human breast milk suggested that technical DDT might be a source of TCPMe in the Chinese population. When daily intakes of DDTs and HCHs to infants through human breast milk were estimated, human breast milk from Dalian showed significantly higher contribution than Shenyang, implying that infants in Dalian might be at higher risk by these contaminants.     

Sorption and desorption of carbamazepine, naproxen and triclosan in a soil irrigated with raw wastewater: estimation of the sorption parameters by considering the initial mass of the compounds in the soil

The amphipod Hyalella azteca was exposed for 28 d to different combinations of Zn contaminated sediment and food. Sediment exposure (+clean food) resulted in increased Zn body burdens, increased mortality and decreased body mass when the molar concentrations of simultaneously extracted Zn were greater than the molar concentration of Acid Volatile Sulfide (SEM_Zn-AVS > 0), suggesting that dissolved Zn was a dominant route of exposure. No adverse effect was noted in the foodexposure (+clean sediment), suggesting selective feeding or regulation. Combined exposure (sediment + food) significantly increased adverse effects in comparison with sediment exposure, indicating contribution of dietary Zn to toxicity and bioaccumulation. The observed enhanced toxicity also supports the assumption on the presence of an avoidance/selective feeding reaction of the amphipods in the single sediment or food exposures. During 14 d post-exposure in clean medium, the organisms from the same combined exposure history received two feeding regimes, i.e. clean food and Zn spiked food. Elevated Zn bioaccumulation and reduced reproduction were noted in amphipods that were offered Zn spiked food compared to the respective organisms that were fed clean food. This was explained by the failure of avoidance/selective feeding behavior in the absence of an alternative food source (sediment), forcing the amphipods to take up Zn while feeding. Increasing Zn body burdens rejected the assumption that Zn uptake from food was regulated by H. azteca. Our results show that the selective feeding behavior should be accounted for when assessing ecological effects of Zn or other contaminants, especially when contaminated food is a potential exposure route.     

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.     

Temporal trends of organochlorines in Northern Europe, 1967-1995. Relation to global fractionation, leakage from sediments and international measures

The time trend monitoring of organochlorine pollution was carried out in Sweden since the late 1960s. This report presents data on concentrations of DDT, PCB, HCHs and HCB in biota samples collected and analysed annually. All the matrices and compounds studied show a significant decrease over time. The data cover severely polluted Swedish marine and fresh water in southern Sweden as well as locally unpolluted waters in remote northern Arctic regions of Sweden. A total of 13 time series representing different locations and species are presented for the different pollutants. The period studied covers the time when pollution was serious as well as the time of recovery. All monitoring activities were carried out at the same laboratories over the entire study period, which means that comparability over time is good in the sets of data presented. The various time trends show a convincing agreement with trends and annual change over time, although the concentrations differ between the species and locations investigated, the highest concentrations being in the south. Since the annual changes are normally similar regardless of locations and species, spatial variations in concentrations remain over time, although concentrations are lower today. The onset of changes in concentrations over time can be related to international measures or other circumstances that lowered releases into the environment. Similarities in the annual changes, as well as the time when changes began, are discussed with respect to suggested hypotheses on the fate of the investigated organochlorines. It was not possible to verify that the oxygenation of anoxic sediments mobilised old pollution in Baltic sediments. Neither was it possible to conclude that eutrophication has caused a measurable effect on the rate and timing of the decreases. Finally, long-range transport to Arctic regions seems to be due more to a one step transport than to the 'Grass-hopper' effect. The comprehensive database used, clearly shows how important it is to have datasets big enough to describe between-year variation before attempting to evaluate the time trend. In addition, if between-year variation is not known, it is then also difficult to evaluate spatial variation on the basis of single year observations.     

Contaminant residues in seabird eggs from the Canadian Arctic. II. Spatial trends and evidence from stable isotopes for intercolony differences

Eggs of glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus), black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and black guillemots (Cepphus grylle) were collected from several sites throughout the Canadian Arctic. Samples were analyzed for organochlorines as well as mercury and selenium. Glaucous gulls breeding at sites in the High Arctic showed higher levels of organochlorine contamination than those in the western Low Arctic. This was likely due to dietary differences among colonies as suggested by stable isotope data, although different overwintering areas may also play a role. Levels of sigmaPCB, sigmaDDT, sigmaCHLOR, sigmaCBz and dieldrin were significantly lower in thick-billed murres from Prince Leopold Island in the High Arctic compared with colonies in the eastcrn Low Arctic. This difference was likely due to the combined effects of different atmospheric deposition patterns in the High and Low Arctic and different overwintering areas since murres from Prince Leopold Island may winter farther north than murres from the other colonies sampled. Eggs from colonies at higher latitudes generally contained higher concentrations of mercury. The trophic and dietary differences/similarities suggested by stable-nitrogen and carbon isotope data in this study were useful in explaining the spatial patterns of contaminant concentrations observed among colonies of seabirds such as the glaucous gull and the black-legged kittiwake where variation in latitudinal atmospheric deposition patterns and different overwintering grounds did not appear to be confounding factors.     

Societal implications of a changing Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect mid-latitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures.     

Tipping Points in the Arctic: Eyeballing or Statistical Significance?

Arctic ecosystems have experienced and are projected to experience continued large increases in temperature and declines in sea ice cover. It has been hypothesized that small changes in ecosystem drivers can fundamentally alter ecosystem functioning, and that this might be particularly pronounced for Arctic ecosystems. We present a suite of simple statistical analyses to identify changes in the statistical properties of data, emphasizing that changes in the standard error should be considered in addition to changes in mean properties. The methods are exemplified using sea ice extent, and suggest that the loss rate of sea ice accelerated by factor of ~5 in 1996, as reported in other studies, but increases in random fluctuations, as an early warning signal, were observed already in 1990. We recommend to employ the proposed methods more systematically for analyzing tipping points to document effects of climate change in the Arctic.