Model testing using data on 137Cs from Chernobyl fallout in the Iput River catchment area of Russia

Data collected for 10 years following the Chernobyl accident in 1986 have provided a unique opportunity to test the reliability of computer models for contamination of terrestrial and aquatic environments. The Iput River scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of the BIOMASS (Biosphere Modelling and Assessment Methods) programme. The test area was one of the most highly contaminated areas in Russia following the accident, with an average contamination density of 137Cs of 800,000 Bq m-2 and localized contamination up to 1,500,000 Bq m-2, and a variety of countermeasures that were implemented in the test area had to be considered in the modelling exercise. Difficulties encountered during the exercise included averaging of data to account for uneven contamination of the test area, simulating the downward migration and changes in bioavailability of 137Cs in soil, and modelling the effectiveness of countermeasures. The accuracy of model predictions is dependent at least in part on the experience and judgment of the participant in interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, and treatment of uncertainties.     

Comparative radiation impact on biota and man in the area affected by the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant

A methodological approach for a comparative assessment of ionising radiation effects on man and non-human species, based on the use of Radiation Impact Factor (RIF) - ratios of actual exposure doses to biota species and man to critical dose is described. As such doses, radiation safety standards limiting radiation exposure of man and doses at which radiobiological effects in non-human species were not observed after the Chernobyl accident, were employed. For the study area within the 30km ChNPP zone dose burdens to 10 reference biota groups and the population (with and without evacuation) and the corresponding RIFs were calculated. It has been found that in 1986 (early period after the accident) the emergency radiation standards for man do not guarantee adequate protection of the environment, some species of which could be affected more than man. In 1991 RIFs for man were considerably (by factor of 20.0-1.1 x 10(5)) higher compared with those for selected non-human species. Thus, for the long term after the accident radiation safety standards for man are shown to ensure radiation safety for biota as well.     

Effects of non-human species irradiation after the Chernobyl NPP accident

The area affected by the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in 1986 has become a unique test site where long-term ecological and biological consequences of a drastic change in a range of environmental factors as well as trends and intensity of selection are studied in natural settings. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident for biota varied from an enhanced rate of mutagenesis to damage at the ecosystem level. The review comprehensively brings together key data of the long-term studies of biological effects in plants and animals inhabiting over 20 years the Chernobyl NPP zone. The severity of radiation effects was strongly dependent on the dose received in the early period after the accident. The most exposed phytocenoses and soil animals' communities exhibited dose dependent alterations in the species composition and reduction in biological diversity. On the other hand, no decrease in numbers or taxonomic diversity of small mammals even in the most radioactive habitat was shown. In a majority of the studies, in both plant and animal populations from the Chernobyl zone, in the first years after the accident high increases in mutation rates were documented. In most cases the dose-effect relationships were nonlinear and the mutation rates per unit dose were higher at low doses and dose rates. In subsequent years a decline in the radiation background rate occurred faster than reduction in the mutation rate. Plant and animal populations have shown signs of adaptation to chronic exposure. In adaptation to the enhanced level of exposure an essential role of epigenetic mechanisms of gene expression regulation was shown. Based on the Chernobyl NPP accident studies, in the present review attempts were made to assess minimum doses at which ecological and biological effects were observed.     

Model testing using data on 131I released from Hanford

The Hanford test scenario described an accidental release of 131I to the environment from the Hanford Purex Chemical Separations Plant in September 1963. Based on monitoring data collected after the release, this scenario was used by the Dose Reconstruction Working Group of BIOMASS to test models typically used in dose reconstructions. The primary exposure pathway in terms of contribution to human doses was ingestion of contaminated milk and vegetables. Predicted mean doses to the thyroid of reference individuals from ingestion of 131I ranged from 0.0001 to 0.8 mSv. For one location, predicted doses to the thyroids of two children with high milk consumption ranged from 0.006 to 2 mSv. The predicted deposition at any given location varied among participants by a factor of 5-80. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of assessment methods and conceptual approaches, testing model predictions against measurements, and identifying the most important contributors to uncertainty in the assessment result. Key factors affecting predictions included the approach to handling incomplete data, interpretation of input information, selection of parameter values, adjustment of models for site-specific conditions, and treatment of uncertainties.     

A comparison of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems.

The predictions of three models of 137Cs transfer in forest ecosystems (FOA, LOGNAT and FORESTLAND) were compared. The scenario for the model-model comparison consisted of an acute dry deposition of 137Cs over a coniferous forest. The model predictions were subsequently compared (model-data comparison) with values derived from experimental data measured in forests of the Bryansk region in Russia that were contaminated by the Chernobyl accident and that have similar characteristics to the forests described in the scenario. The predictions of radiocaesium levels in the litter-soil layer, berries, needles, wood, whole tree and moose made with the models were in relatively good agreement with each other (within a factor of 1.4-2.9). The best agreement was observed for berries and moose and the worst for wood. There was also good agreement between the model predictions for the same variables and the experimental data (within a factor of 1.2 3.2). In this case, the best agreement was observed for the litter-soil layer and the worst for wood and the whole tree. Overall, at least for the studied scenario and for the first 10 years after deposition, any of the models can be used if the final aim is to estimate average concentrations in different forest components. The agreement between the model predictions worsens with time and there were differences in the form of the time dependencies predicted by the models, especially for wood. This may lead to larger differences between the model predictions and the experimental data for times beyond the period for which data were available for comparison (10 years after the deposition).     

Analysis of radiocaesium in the Lebanese soil one decade after the Chernobyl accident

Fallout from the Chernobyl reactor accident due to the transport of a radioactive cloud over Lebanon in the beginning of May 1986 was studied 12 years after the accident for determining the level of (137)Cs concentration in soil. Gamma spectroscopy measurements were performed by using coaxial high sensitivity HPGe detectors. More than 90 soil samples were collected from points uniformly distributed throughout the land of Lebanon in order to evaluate their radioactivity. The data obtained showed a relatively high (137)Cs activity per surface area contamination, up to 6545Bqm(-2) in the top soil layer 0-3cm. The average activity of (137)Cs in the top soil layer 0-3cm in depth was 59.7Bqkg(-1) dry soil ranging from 15 to 119Bqkg(-1) dry soil. The horizontal variability was found to be about 45% between the sampling sites. The depth distribution of total (137)Cs activity in soil showed an exponential decrease. Estimation of the annual effective dose due to external radiation from (137)Cs contaminated soil for selected sites gave values ranging from 19.3 to 91.6 micro Svy(-1).     

Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition.     

Doses to members of the general public and observed effects on biota: Chernobyl Forum update

The Chernobyl Forum was organized by the United Nations to examine the health and environmental effects of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station. This paper is concerned with the environmental effects, as determined by Expert Group Environment. The accident resulted in release of a large amount of radioactive materials over a period of 10 days. These materials were deposited throughout Europe with the three more affected countries being Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. More than 5 million persons lived on territories in these countries judged to be contaminated at >37kBqm(-2). Many countermeasures were employed to mitigate the effects of the accident. The collective effective dose to the residents of the contaminated territories is estimated to be about 55,000 person-Sv. Effects on non-human biota were observed that ranged from minor to lethal; the current increase in the number and diversity of species in the most contaminated area is due to absence of human pressure.     

Computerised Decision Support Systems for the management of freshwater radioecological emergencies: assessment of the state-of-the-art with respect to the experiences and needs of end-users

Assessment of the environmental and radiological consequences of a nuclear accident requires the management of a great deal of data and information as well as the use of predictive models. Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) are essential tools for this kind of complex assessment and for assisting experts with a rational decision process. The present work focuses on the assessment of the main features of selected state-of-the-art CDSS for off-site management of freshwater ecosystems contaminated by radionuclides. This study involved both developers and end-users of the assessed CDSS and was based on practical customisation exercises, installation and application of the decision systems. Potential end-users can benefit from the availability of several ready-to-use CDSS that allow one to run different kinds of models aimed at predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in aquatic ecosystems, evaluating doses to humans, assessing the effectiveness of different kinds of environmental management interventions and ranking these interventions, accounting for their social, economic and environmental impacts. As a result of the present assessment, the importance of CDSS “integration” became apparent: in many circumstances, different CDSS can be used as complementary tools for the decision-making process. The results of this assessment can also be useful for the future development and improvement of the CDSS.     

Reconstruction of (131)I radioactive contamination in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident using atmospheric transport modelling

The evaluation of (131)I air and ground contamination field formation in the territory of Ukraine was made using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The (131)I atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The airborne (131)I concentration and ground deposition fields were calculated as the database for subsequent thyroid dose reconstruction for inhabitants of radioactive contaminated regions. The small-scale deposition field variability is assessed using data of (137)Cs detailed measurements in the territory of Ukraine. The obtained results are compared with available data of radioiodine daily deposition measurements made at the network of meteorological stations in Ukraine and data of the assessments of (131)I soil contamination obtained from the (129)I measurements.     

Remediation strategies for rural territories contaminated by the Chernobyl accident.

The objective of the present paper is to derive remediation strategies for rural settlements contaminated by the Chernobyl accident in which annual doses to a critical group still exceed 1 mSv. Extensive radioecological data have been collected for 70 contaminated settlements. A dose model based on these data resulted in estimates that are on average close to and a bit less than the official dose estimates ('catalogue doses') published by the responsible Ministries of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. For eight remedial actions that can be applied on a large scale, effectiveness and costs have been assessed in light of their dependence on soil type, contamination level and on the degree of previous application of remedial actions. Remediation strategies were derived for each of the 70 settlements by choosing remedial actions with lowest costs per averted dose and with highest degree of acceptability among the farmers and local authorities until annual doses are assessed to fall below 1 mSv. The results were generalised to 11 contamination/internal-dose categories. The total numbers of rural inhabitants and privately owned cows in the three countries distributed over the categories were determined and predicted until the year 2015. Based on these data, costs and averted doses were derived for the whole affected population. The main results are (i) about 2000 Sv can be averted at relatively low costs, (ii) the emphasis on reducing external exposures should be increased, (iii) radical improvement of hay-land and meadows and application of Prussian blue to cows should be performed on a large scale if annual doses of 1 mSv are an aim to be achieved, (iv) additional remedial actions of importance are fertilising of potato fields, distribution of food monitors and restriction of mushroom consumption, and (v) for inhabitants of some settlements (in total about 8600) annual doses cannot be reduced below 1 mSv by the remedial actions considered.     

Lake fish as the main contributor of internal dose to lakeshore residents in the Chernobyl contaminated area

Two field expeditions in 1996 studied 137Cs intake patterns and its content in the bodies of adult residents from the village Kozhany in the Bryansk region, Russia, located on the shore of a drainless peat lake in an area subjected to significant radioactive contamination after the 1986 Chernobyl accident. The 137Cs contents in lake water and fish were two orders of magnitude greater than in local rivers and flow-through lakes, 10 years after Chernobyl radioactive contamination, and remain stable. The 137Cs content in lake fish and a mixture of forest mushrooms was between approximately 10-20 kBq/kg, which exceeded the temporary Russian permissible levels for these products by a factor of 20-40. Consumption of lake fish gave the main contribution to internal doses (40-50%) for Kozhany village inhabitants Simple countermeasures, such as Prussian blue doses for dairy cows and pre-boiling mushrooms and fish before cooking, halved the 137Cs internal dose to inhabitants, even 10 years after the radioactive fallout.     

137Cs distribution among annual rings of different tree species contaminated after the Chernobyl accident

The distributions of 137Cs among annual rings of Pinus sylvestris and Betula pendula at four experimental sites located in the most contaminated areas in the Russian territory after the Chernobyl accident in 1986 were studied. Trees of different ages were sampled from four forest sites with different tree compositions and soil properties. The data analysis shows that 137Cs is very mobile in wood and the 1986 rings do not show the highest contamination. The difference between pine and birch in the pattern of radial 137Cs distribution can be satisfactorily explained by the difference in radial ray composition. 137Cs radial distribution in the wood can be described as the sum of two exponential functions for both species. The function parameters are height, age and species dependent. The distribution of 137Cs in birch wood reveals much more pronounced dependence on site characteristics and/or the age of trees than pines. The data obtained can be used to assess 137Cs content in wood.     

Validation of I ecological transfer models and thyroid dose assessments using Chernobyl fallout data from the Plavsk district, Russia

Within the project “Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety” (EMRAS) organized by the IAEA in 2003 experimental data of ¹³¹I measurements following the Chernobyl accident in the Plavsk district of Tula region, Russia were used to validate the calculations of some radioecological transfer models. Nine models participated in the inter-comparison. Levels of ¹³⁷Cs soil contamination in all the settlements and ¹³¹I/¹³⁷Cs isotopic ratios in the depositions in some locations were used as the main input information. 370 measurements of ¹³¹I content in thyroid of townspeople and villagers, and 90 measurements of ¹³¹I concentration in milk were used for validation of the model predictions.A remarkable improvement in models performance comparing with previous inter-comparison exercise was demonstrated. Predictions of the various models were within a factor of three relative to the observations, discrepancies between the estimates of average doses to thyroid produced by most participant not exceeded a factor of ten.     

Reconstruction of 131I radioactive contamination in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident using atmospheric transport modelling

The evaluation of ¹³¹I air and ground contamination field formation in the territory of Ukraine was made using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian–Eulerian DIffusion model). The ¹³¹I atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The airborne ¹³¹I concentration and ground deposition fields were calculated as the database for subsequent thyroid dose reconstruction for inhabitants of radioactive contaminated regions. The small-scale deposition field variability is assessed using data of ¹³⁷Cs detailed measurements in the territory of Ukraine. The obtained results are compared with available data of radioiodine daily deposition measurements made at the network of meteorological stations in Ukraine and data of the assessments of ¹³¹I soil contamination obtained from the ¹²⁹I measurements.     

Estimation of doses received in a dry-contaminated residential area in the Bryansk region, Russia, since the Chernobyl accident

In nuclear preparedness, an essential requirement is the ability to adequately predict the likely consequences of a major accident situation. In this context it is very important to evaluate which contributions to dose are important, and which are not likely to have significance. As an example of this type of evaluation, a case study has been conducted to estimate the doses received over the first 17 years after the Chernobyl accident in a dry-contaminated residential area in the Bryansk region in Russia. Methodologies for estimation of doses received through nine different pathways, including contamination of streets, roofs, exterior walls, and landscape, are established, and best estimates are given for each of the dose contributions. Generally, contaminated soil areas were estimated to have given the highest dose contribution, but a number of other contributions to dose, e.g., from contaminated roofs and inhalation of contaminants during the passage of the contaminated plume, were of the same order of magnitude.