Effects of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

In the Model Complexity working group of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to a theoretical problem concerning downward transport of radionuclides in soils. The purpose was to study how uncertainty in model predictions varies with model complexity and how model simplifications can suitably be made. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr and ¹²⁹I. A detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of models was given, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models ranged in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis.     

Generic values for soil-to-plant transfer factors of radiocesium

There is a need for soil-to-plant transfer factors of radionuclides that take into account all possible crops on all soil varieties to support dose assessment studies. Because only limited experimental data exist for worldwide soil systems, such values should necessarily have a generic character. This paper describes a generic system for 137Cs, mainly based on a reference soil-to-plant transfer factor which depends solely on soil properties such as nutrient status, exchangeable K-content, pH and moisture content. Crops are divided into crop groups, cereals serving as reference group. The transfer of other crop groups can be calculated by multiplying data for cereals by a conversion factor. Existing data present in the IUR (International Union of Radioecologists) databank and in large part the work of a FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation)/IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency)/IUR project on tropical systems provided the basis for the derivation of the conversion factors and reference values.     

Effects of the simultaneous application of potassium and calcium on the soil-to-Chinese cabbage transfer of radiocesium and radiostrontium

Pot experiments were carried out in a greenhouse to investigate how effectively the transfer of radiocesium and radiostrontium from soil to Chinese cabbage could be reduced by applying K and Ca simultaneously to the soil. The sources of these elements were KCl and Ca(OH)(2) at agrochemical grades. Varying dosages of K and Ca were tested for an acid loamy soil treated with a mixed solution of (137)Cs and (85)Sr at two different times - 3 d before sowing and 32 d after sowing. For the pre-sowing deposition, the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs decreased sharply with increasing dosages of K and Ca (K/Ca, g m(-2)) from 4.8/46 up to 22.4/215 but the (85)Sr transfer had the greatest reduction at a dosage of 12.8/123. At this dosage, an about 60% reduction occurred for each radionuclide. Plant growth was inhibited from the dosage of 22.4/215, above which all the plants died young. Both dosages of 4.8/46 and 12.8/123 tested following the growing-time deposition produced around 95% reductions for (137)Cs and 50% reductions for (85)Sr. In the second year after the 12.8/123 applications, the effects for (85)Sr were almost the same as in the first year, whereas those for (137)Cs were diminished slightly for the pre-sowing deposition and markedly for the growing-time deposition. Considerably (K) or slightly (Ca) higher doses than 12.8/123 would be allowable for the maximum TF reductions achievable without a growth inhibition.     

Effect of potassium and phosphorus on the transport of radiocesium by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Potassium, a chemical analogue of cesium, and phosphorus, an essential macronutrient transported by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), have been suggested to influence the transport of radiocesium by AMF. However, no study investigated the effects of increasing concentrations of both elements on the importance of this transport. Here, the arbuscular mycorrhizal-plant (AM-P) in vitro culture system associating Medicago truncatula plantlets with Glomus intraradices was used to evaluate this effect.Using three concentrations of K (0, 1, 10 mM) and two concentrations of P (30 and 3000 μM) added to a compartment only accessible to the AMF, we demonstrated that K and P individually and in combination significantly influenced radiocesium transport by AMF. Whilst increased concentration of K decreased the amount of radiocesium transported, the opposite was observed for P. Although the exact mechanisms involved need to be assessed, both elements were identified as important factors influencing the transport of radiocesium by AMF.     

Kinetics of radiocesium released from contaminated soil by fertilizer solutions

(137)Cs is one of the major artificial radionuclides found in environments; but the mechanisms behind fertilizer-induced (137)Cs desorption from soil remain unknown. This study aimed to investigate the kinetics and mechanisms underlying the various cations and anions that cause Cs release from soil under acidic conditions. NH(4)H(2)PO(4) (1M), 0.5M (NH(4))(2)SO(4), 1M NH(4)Cl, 1M KCl or 1M NaCl solutions were added to (137)Cs-contaminated soil. The power function model well described the short term (137)Cs desorption with the solutions. The rate coefficients for (137)Cs release from soil in NH(4)H(2)PO(4), (NH(4))(2)SO(4), NH(4)Cl, and KCl solutions were 7.7, 7.3, 6.8, and 6.1 times higher than the rate observed in a NaCl solution, respectively. The NH(4)H(2)PO(4) and (NH(4))(2)SO(4) solutions induced significantly greater (137)Cs release from the contaminated soil than the NH(4)Cl, KCl and NaCl solutions. After four times repeated extractions with the fertilizer solutions, the total amount of (137)Cs extracted by (NH(4))(2)SO(4) and NH(4)Cl solutions reached equilibrium, while that extracted using an NH(4)H(2)PO(4) solution continued to increase. The combined effect of phosphate and protons was the major mechanism behind (137)Cs release from contaminated soils, when an NH(4)H(2)PO(4) solution was used.     

Accumulation of radiocesium by mushrooms in the environment: a literature review

During the last 50 years, a large amount of information on radionuclide accumulators or "sentinel-type" organisms in the environment has been published. Much of this work focused on the risks of food-chain transfer of radionuclides to higher organisms such as reindeer and man. Until the 1980s and 1990s, there were few published data on the radiocesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) accumulation by mushrooms. The present review of published data for (134,137)Cs accumulation by mushrooms in nature discusses the aspects that promote (134,137)Cs uptake by mushrooms and focuses on mushrooms that demonstrate a propensity for use in the environmental biomonitoring of radiocesium contamination. Transfer factors (TF, as dry weight concentration in fruiting body divided by concentration in substrate) ranged up to 24 (unitless), and aggregate transfer factors (T(ag), as Bq(137)Cs/kg dw in fruiting body divided by the aerial deposition as Bq/m(2)) ranged up to 8m(2)/kg dw.     

Development of quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments when the scientific data base is inadequate

The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 10⁴ and 10⁶. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty.     

Dynamics and sustainability of urban agriculture: examples from sub-Saharan Africa

Urban agriculture can have many different expressions, varying from backyard gardening to poultry and livestock farming. This article focuses on crop production on larger open spaces in cities of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and investigates the sustainability and dynamics of this type of land use, which is common on undeveloped plots particularly in lowlands, such as in inland valleys, or along urban streams or drains. An adapted version of the Framework for Evaluating Sustainable Land Management (FESLM) developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) was used to assess the sustainability of urban agriculture. As an example for dynamics, the spatio-temporal changes of open-space agriculture in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, are analyzed for the period from 1992 to 2005, and compared with data from other cities. Crop production on urban open spaces appears as a market-driven, highly productive and profitable phenomenon. However, it is often constrained by tenure insecurity and non-agricultural land demands. Also, the common use of polluted water limits the official support of irrigated urban farming. However, despite these constraints, the phenomenon of urban farming appears persistent and resilient to its changing environment, although individual farmers might have to shift to other sites when their plots are needed for construction. Open-space vegetable production in urban areas is a dynamic, viable and largely sustainable livelihood strategy, especially for poor urban dwellers. Spatio-temporal analysis shows that it is not a short-lived or transitional phenomenon—probably as long as it can maintain its comparative market advantage. However, its informal nature and resulting lack of political recognition need to be addressed.     

Time trends (1986-2003) of radiocesium transfer to roe deer and wild boar in two Austrian forest regions

Starting shortly after the Chernobyl accident, samples of roe deer and wild boar from two comparatively highly contaminated Austrian forest stands have been regularly analysed for (137)Cs. Until 1995 average (137)Cs concentrations exceeded 1000 Bq kg(-1) in both roe deer and wild boar. Long-term and seasonal trends are similar in both investigation sites. While (137)Cs aggregated transfer factor (T(ag)) values show a significant decreasing trend in roe deer (ecological half-time 8.6 and 7.2 years, respectively), T(ag)-values in wild boar are highly variable, but rather increasing values are observed over the last years. T(ag)-values for roe deer are between 0.04 and 0.008 m(2)kg(-1) fresh weight (1987-2003); values for wild boar are between 0.008 m(2)kg(-1) (1988) and 0.046 m(2)kg(-1) (1996) fresh weight. Seasonal trends for both species are in good agreement with observations from German forests: increased mushroom ingestion leads to higher (137)Cs T(ag)-values for roe deer in the second half of the year (August-December) compared to the first half (January-July). T(ag)-values for wild boar are highest in the first half of the year.     

Adaptive capacity determinants in developed states: examples from the Nordic countries and Russia

Adaptive capacity in a community context has so far mainly been studied in developing countries as well as indigenous communities in the industrialised world. This article adds to that literature through reviewing studies undertaken in the Nordic countries and Russia, highlighting the ways in which general determinants of adaptive capacity play out in Northern, industrialised contexts. The paper illustrates that the determinants of adaptive capacity in industrialised states exhibit systematic differences from mixed subsistence-cash based communities such as those found in Arctic Canada. We discuss in particular the importance of economic resources in a market-based system, technological competition, and infrastructure, in determining adaptive capacity of natural resource-dependent communities in the Nordic countries and Russia. The paper also illustrates differences in adaptive capacity within the case study region, including between peripheral and central locations with regard to economic resources and diversification possibilities, and between Nordic and Russian cases with regard to infrastructure and technology access. The findings indicate that understanding of determinants of adaptive capacity in resource-dependent communities would benefit from both further contextualisation and broad comparison, across different types of political and administrative systems.     

Issues in assessing the economic benefits of ambient ozone control: Some examples from agriculture

Information on the economic benefits arising from alternative secondary National Ambient Air Quality Standards can provide one measure of regulatory efficiency. If benefits assessments are to be used in assessing regulatory impacts of federal standards as recently ordered by President Ronald Reagan, the economic concept of benefits, the limitations of benefits analysis, and the validity of those estimates needs to be clarified. This paper briefly reviews some methodological and applied issues which can effect the validity of environmental economic assessments as they pertain to agriculture. Recent studies from the assessment literature on agriculture are critiqued with respect to how well they address such issues. An attempt is made to identify potential sources of variability in estimates found within that literature. Finally, implications for performance of future assessments are discussed.     

A mechanistic sub-model predicting the influence of potassium on radiocesium uptake in aquatic biota

It is often argued that the quality of science is related to the possibilities of making accurate predictions. It has also long been argued that due to the complex nature of ecosystems, it will never be possible to predict important target variables, especially with more comprehensive dynamic models. New results in radioecology have, however, demonstrated that those arguments are no longer valid. The key to the predictive success lies in the structuring of the model. The accident at Chernobyl has, in fact, provided science with an intriguing opportunity to study how the pulse of 137Cs is transported through ecosystem pathways, thus revealing the basic structure of these ecosystems, i.e. which are the key and the less-important pathways. It is paradoxical to conclude that the Chernobyl accident is, perhaps, the most important factor behind the revolution in predictive ecosystem modelling which lies behind the decrease in the uncertainty factor from 10 to 0.25-0.5. The sub-model for the potassium moderator presented in this paper is an example of a mechanistically based sub-model used within the framework of a more comprehensive lake model for 137Cs. The K-moderator presented is derived from the existing knowledge on ion transport in biological membranes and takes into account ion equilibria modelled by the Nernst equation and the uptake kinetics quantified by the Michaelis-Menten model. It provides the type of structure to this overall lake model that helps to explain the excellent predictive power of this model.     

Triangulation in climate change vulnerability assessment: examples from Colorado,USA

Regional Environmental Change - Climate change vulnerability assessment is a key first step for land managers attempting to address the potential impacts of future climatic conditions on important...     

Inferring coastal processes from regional-scale mapping of Radon and salinity: examples from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The radon isotope ²²²Rn and salinity in coastal surface water were mapped on regional scales, to improve the understanding of coastal processes and their spatial variability. Radon was measured with a surface-towed, continuously recording multi-detector setup on a moving vessel. Numerous processes and locations of land-ocean interaction along the Central Great Barrier Reef coastline were identified and interpreted based on the data collected. These included riverine fluxes, terrestrially-derived fresh submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and the tidal pumping of seawater through mangrove forests. Based on variations in the relationship of the tracers radon and salinity, some aspects of regional freshwater inputs to the coastal zone and to estuaries could be assessed. Concurrent mapping of radon and salinity allowed an efficient qualitative assessment of land-ocean interaction on various spatial and temporal scales, indicating that such surveys on coastal scales can be a useful tool to obtain an overview of SGD locations and processes.     

On the radiocesium carbonate barrier in organics-rich sediments of Lake Juodis, Lithuania

Radiocesium vertical profiles in organics-rich sediments of running shallow eutrophic Lake Juodis (Lithuania) were studied in relation to seasonal variations of vertical profiles (in water column and sediments) of standard variables (pH, redox potential, temperature, oxygen concentrations, conductivity). It is shown that the sedimentation rate, radiocesium mobility and its vertical profiles in sediments are controlled by the vital cycle (processes of the growth, accumulation and decomposition) of green algae covering the main bottom areas of the lake. It is also shown that calcite deposits are formed in the shallow bottom areas that are oxygenated throughout the year because of the photosynthetic activity of the green algae covering the sediment. Formation of the calcite coatings on freshly accumulated organics is remarkable for causing elevated densities of sediment solids in the upper part of the respective vertical profiles. These calcite deposits behave as a barrier for radiocesium backward flux to the bottom water making the respective bottom areas a radionuclide sink. Together with the jelly-structured sediments lying below these deposits, the calcite preserves the shape of the primary radiocesium vertical profiles formed due to free-ion diffusion after the deposition event. It was determined that bottom areas anaerobic in winter are the main radiocesium source in the water column and cause characteristic radiocesium redistribution in surface sediments.     

On the mechanism of the enrichment in radiocesium of near-bottom water in Lake Juodis, Lithuania

Evidence of the thermodynamic origin of a mechanism for radiocesium enrichment of near-bottom water based on the analysis of vertical profiles of standard water variables (pH, temperature, oxygen concentrations and conductivity) in Lake Juodis is presented. This mechanism is shown to be related to disturbances in the thermohalinic stability (buoyancy effects) of sediment interstitial liquids inducing their interfacial transfer. The mechanism reveals itself even in aerobic waters during cooling processes in autumn under weather conditions inducing the formation of a steep temperature gradient in the surface sediments. These gradients may be formed due to intense sediment cooling as well as in cases of cooling interruptions owing to the arrival of warm air masses inducing temperature stratification of the water column. In the latter case, a sharp decrease in the heat flux from sediments through the stagnant water column promotes relative overheating of the sediment surface layer and the consequent initiation of buoyancy forces inducing interfacial transfer of sediment interstitial liquids enriched in dissolved material. Intrusions of interstitial liquids and their vertical thermodynamic transfer through the water column are followed by the formation of a specific vertical structure consisting of a set of evenly mixed water layers which are especially distinctly observable under ice cover in winter. The mechanism is responsible for lake water contamination by radiocesium and other pollutants dissolved in interstitial liquids. The investigation results explain the phenomenon of “super warm” lakes where temperatures of near-bottom waters under ice in winter are higher than 4 °C.     

On seasonal variations of radiocesium speciation in the surface sediments of Lake Juodis, Lithuania

Data on radiocesium speciation measured seasonally in black silt surface sediments in the shallow terrace and in the deepest southern part of Lake Juodis (Lithuania) in 2004-2005 are presented. It is shown that seasonal variations of radiocesium exchangeable fractions in the sediments in the shallow terrace are mainly related to its redistribution due to the vital cycle of green algae covering bottom surfaces - processes of their growth and decomposition. A seasonal course of those fractions in surface sediments of the deepest bottom areas of the lake follows a distinct pattern and is annually recycling. It is maximum in winter and declines due to stagnant bottom water zone disruption in summer. It is shown that surface sediments in the deepest bottom areas of the lake are not a radiocesium source during the formation of the anaerobic zone in bottom water in winter, and act in that case as its acceptor. The radiocesium remobilization to the bottom water is seasonal and site-specific. It is suggested to be due to three main processes: its diffusion from deeper and more active sediments, its redistribution during decomposition of organics freshly accumulated in surface sediments and a radiocesium flux induced by the mechanism of the seasonal anaerobic zone formation in near-bottom water.