Mitigation,adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets

This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the assumptions and methods used, although some general conclusions can be drawn. Studies of economic impacts suggest that average market effects in the United States may range from +$1.3 to +7.4 billion per year by the middle of the next century. Estimates of the cost of sequestering carbon have generally increased over the last 10 years, with a current range of <1–73 million metric t per year of additional sequestration from afforestation projects costing $5–66 per metric t. Estimates of the potential for alternative methods for carbon sequestration, such as product markets and recycling, are as large as afforestation estimates, with up to 50 million metric tons per year of additional storage considered possible. Cost estimates have not been developed for these alternative methods, however.     

Coastal household adaptation cost requirements to sea level rise impacts

This study assessed the autonomous adaptation cost requirements of coastal households to sea level rise impacts at a level to accommodate and protect (excluding retreat). The study examined six vulnerable villages, including both urbanized and fishery communities, located in the Gulf of Thailand. Half of them were near the shore, and the other half were further inland. In initiating the study, to assess actual adaptation costs, common household adaptative measures were first identified; then, using a questionnaire to collect associated costs data, interviews were conducted with individual households. To predict future adaptation costs, the study applied the budgeting for recurrent costs of investment and the future value of an equal annual expenditures payment. Adaptation costs were classified into capital and operating expenditures. Then a statistical comparison was completed of the mean differences in costs between the villages. The study results indicate that the impacted households primarily spent their money for capital expenditures related to home and farming environments. Operating expenditures are not a concern for them. The expected future adaptation costs adjusted with inflation throughout the next 30 years will be five times that of the present costs. This will require households to plan their savings very carefully. Whereas the adaptation costs of urbanized villages are clearly higher than those of fishery villages, there is no significant difference in the costs between near shore and next-to-shore villages. Information regarding adaptation costs at the household level is extremely rare. Knowing the requisite amount for the adaptation costs will be of added benefit to policy makers preparing for future assistance programs.     

中国履行斯德哥尔摩公约淘汰硫丹的社会经济影响

通过构建化学品风险管理SEA(社会经济影响分析)方法学,结合中国硫丹生产、使用及替代技术状况的调研,对中国履约淘汰硫丹的社会经济影响进行了分析. 结果表明:中国5 a淘汰情景下的总成本为5 007.2×104元,其中产业经济成本为4 852.2×104元,管理成本为155.0×104元,沉没成本约为651.0×104元;10 a淘汰情景下的总成本为2 748.5×104元,其中产业经济成本为2 507.6×104元,管理成本为240.9×104元,而沉没成本约为651.0×104元. 硫丹淘汰对现有硫丹原药生产企业会产生一定的经济及化工生产链影响,但总体经济影响不大. 对履约淘汰硫丹的主要利益攸关方、就业影响和消费者福利等因素的分析表明,除对硫丹长期集中使用的棉花种植者构成一定的短期影响外,中国履约淘汰硫丹产生的社会影响较小. 其中,5 a淘汰情景比10 a淘汰情景可减少约2 000 t硫丹环境排放量,具有更显著的环境和健康效益. 因而,建议中国采用5 a淘汰情景履约淘汰硫丹,研究成果可为国家硫丹履约行动计划的制订和实施提供参考.      

Fire ant venom alkaloids act as key attractants for the parasitic phorid fly, Pseudacteon tricuspis (Diptera: Phoridae)

The phorid fly, Pseudacteon tricuspis Borgmeier, is an introduced parasitoid of imported fire ants, Solenopsis spp., in the USA. Although the assumption that phorid flies use fire ant alarm pheromones for host location is probably true, we demonstrated in a previous study the possible involvement of other ant semiochemicals in the response of P. tricuspis to fire ants. This study was conducted to determine the glandular sources and identity of the semiochemicals mediating this interaction. First, we tested the electroantennogram response of P. tricuspis to extracts of key body parts and glands of workers of the red imported fire ant, S. invicta Buren. The results confirm that the poison (venom) gland/sac is the key source of compounds which elicited strong antennal activity in P. tricuspis. Follow-up studies were conducted by using a combination of bioassay-guided fractionation and behavioral bioassays to test the hypothesis that attraction of this parasitoid to fire ants is mediated by venom alkaloids. The results confirm the response of P. tricuspis to physiologically relevant amounts of the two venom alkaloid fractions (cis and trans alkaloid fractions) of S. invicta. Further analysis by coupled gas chromatography–electroantennogram detection revealed nine venom alkaloid components including two novel 2,6-dialkylpiperideines that elicited significant antennal activity in P. tricuspis. This is the first demonstration of the role of venom alkaloids of ants as attractants for their natural enemies. We propose a semiochemical-mediated host location mechanism for P. tricuspis involving both alarm pheromones and venom alkaloids. The ecological significance of these findings, including the attraction of male P. tricuspis to fire ant venom alkaloids, possibly for mate location, is discussed.     

Protein that makes sense in the Argentine ant

With a protein-based approach, we have identified and cloned the cDNA encoding a chemosensory protein (LhumCSP) in the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile. The open reading frame of the cloned cDNA encoded a signal peptide (20 residues), and a mature protein (pI 4.62) of 106 amino acid residues. The calculated molecular mass (12,453 Da) was in agreement with the molecular mass measured by on-line chromatography-electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (12,448 Da), given the formation of two disulfide bridges. LhumCSP shared sequence similarity with various CSPs, particularly those identified and/or cloned from moth species. Also, LhumCSP showed the hallmark of the chemosensory proteins, i.e., four well conserved cysteine residues. The antennal protein was not detected in non-olfactory tissues (leg and thorax) contrary to a putative pheromone-binding protein isolated from the thorax of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta. In addition, these findings suggest that, as in Orthopterans and Phasmids, the protein that makes sense in the Argentine ant is not an odorant-binding protein, but rather a chemosensory protein.     

Parasitoids and competitors influence colony-level responses in the red imported fire ant,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Solenopsis invicta</Emphasis>

Social insect colonies respond to challenges set by a variable environment by reallocating work among colony members. In many social insects, such colony-level task allocation strategies are achieved through individual decisions that produce a self-organized adapting group. We investigated colony responses to parasitoids and native ant competitors in the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta). Parasitoid flies affected fire ants by decreasing the proportion of workers engaged in foraging. Competitors also altered colony-level behaviours by reducing the proportion of foraging ants and by increasing the proportion of roaming majors, whose role is colony defence. Interestingly, the presence of both parasitism and competition almost always had similar effects on task allocation in comparison to each of the biotic factors on its own. Thus, our study uniquely demonstrates that the interactive effect of both parasitism and competition is not necessarily additive, implying that these biotic factors alter colony behaviour in distinct ways. More generally, our work demonstrates the importance of studying the dynamics of species interactions in a broader context.     

Climate change impacts on freshwater recreational fishing in the United States

We estimated the biological and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries in the United States (U.S.). Changes in stream temperatures, flows, and the spatial extent of suitable thermal habitats for fish guilds were modeled for the coterminous U.S. using a range of projected changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Based on modeled shifts in available thermal habitat for fish guilds, we estimated potential economic impacts associated with changes in freshwater recreational fishing using a national-scale economic model of recreational fishing behavior. In general, the spatial distribution of coldwater fisheries is projected to contract, being replaced by warm/cool water and high-thermally tolerant, lower recreational priority (i.e., “rough”) fisheries. Changes in thermal habitat suitability become more pronounced under higher emissions scenarios and at later time periods. Under the highest GHG emissions scenario, by year 2100 habitat for coldwater fisheries is projected to decline by roughly 50 % and be largely confined to mountainous areas in the western U.S. and very limited areas of New England and the Appalachians. The economic model projects a decline in coldwater fishing days ranging from 1.25 million in 2030 to 6.42 million by 2100 and that the total present value of national economic losses to freshwater recreational fishing from 2009 to 2100 could range from $81 million to $6.4 billion, depending on the emissions scenario and the choice of discount rate.     

Transaction costs for carbon sequestration projects in the tropical forest sector

There is general consensus that carbon (C) sequestration projects in forests are a relatively low cost option for mitigating climate change, but most studies on the subject have assumed that transaction costs are negligible. The objectives of the study were to examine transaction costs for forest C sequestration projects and to determine the significance of the costs based on economic analyses. Here we examine four case studies of active C sequestration projects being implemented in tropical countries and developed for the C market. The results from the case studies were then used with a dynamic forest and land use economic model to investigate how transaction costs affect the efficiency and cost of forest C projects globally. In the case studies transaction costs ranged from 0.38 to 27 million US dollars ($0.09 to $7.71/t CO₂) or 0.3 to 270 % of anticipated income depending principally on the price of C and project size. The three largest cost categories were insurance (under the voluntary market; 41–89 % of total costs), monitoring (3–42 %) and regulatory approval (8–50 %). The global analysis indicated that most existing estimates of marginal costs of C sequestration are underestimated by up to 30 % because transaction costs were not included.     

Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt

Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost-effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.     

Inaction levels for the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (hym.: formicidae): A predator of the boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis (col.: curculionidae)

The density of red imported fire ants, Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), necessary to limit boll weevil abundance, Anthonomus grandis Boheman (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), below the action level was determined. An inaction level of 0.4 fire ants per shake bucket sample (i.e., four ants per 10 plant terminals) will provide boll weevil control approximately 90% of the time. A dynamic inaction level is also provided. Total mortality of boll weevil developmental stages including eggs through teneral adults averaged 97.9%. Of 100 boll weevil eggs deposited in cotton squares (flower buds), an average of two adults survive of which about half are female. Thus, the net replacement rate per generation (R_o is 1.0 which, in this case, indicates a stable boll weevil population.     

浦东新区生活垃圾焚烧厂工程实例

依据浦东新区生活垃圾产量，组分及热值等，１９９８年底动工兴建日处理垃圾１０００ｔ规模的焚烧厂，占地８ｈｍ＾２，工程总建筑面积２２１９７ｍ＾２，投资估算６６９１５万元，主要焚烧设备采用ＳＩＴＹ－２０００倾斜往复阶梯式机械炉排等，配置有３条生产线，２套８５００ＫＷ的化电机组。     

长白山自然保护区生物多样性旅游价值评估研究

在野外调查的基础上,采用费用支出法、旅行费用法（ＴＣＭ）及条件价值法（ＣＶＭ）对长白山自然保护区生物多样性旅游价值进行了评估。旅游价值估算为游客的旅行费用支出、消费者剩余、时间价值和其他花费之和。计算消费者剩余使用了国外流行的ＴＣＭ技术,通过全国地理小区划分和３１３１位游客的现场抽样调查,计算出游客出发小区的旅游率,建立了旅游率与人口、收入、旅行费用及旅行时间等因变量之间的回归模型和“供给-需求曲线”,求出全体游客的消费者剩余。计算结果表明,１９９６年长白山保护区生物多样性旅游价值为４３２０５万元,其中国内旅游价值１３７８３万元,国外旅游价值２９４２２万元。     

Managing a forgotten greenhouse gas under existing U.S. law: An interdisciplinary analysis

The United States’ legal strategy for addressing climate change in recent years has relied on authority from existing legislation. This has led to measures on a number of different greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, methane and hydrofluorocarbons. However, one greenhouse gas has been largely forgotten: nitrous oxide. Nitrous oxide is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas in the U.S. and worldwide, as well as the largest remaining threat to the stratospheric ozone layer. In addition, the nitrogen atoms in nitrous oxide are part of the highly fluid nitrogen cycle where nitrogen atoms transform readily among different chemical forms, each with a unique environmental and human health impact – a process known as the nitrogen cascade. While the science of the nitrogen cascade has been explored for over a decade, there has been little work on the legal implications of this phenomenon. And yet the nitrogen cascade expands the legal options available for controlling nitrous oxide. This paper studies these options in a U.S. context and explores the environmental and economic impacts of enacting them. We determine that the Clean Air Act, and in particular its broad authority for controlling ozone depleting substances, is the most promising legal pathway for regulating nitrous oxide across all major sources. Invoking such authority could generate significant climate and stratospheric ozone benefits over 2015–2030, equivalent to taking 12 million cars permanently off the road, and 100 million chlorofluorocarbon-laden refrigerators out of service. The economic benefits could sum to over $700 billion over 2015–2030, with every $1.00 spent on abating emissions leading to $4.10 in societal benefits. The bulk of these benefits would come from reductions in other forms of nitrogen pollution such as ammonia and nitrate, highlighting the important and multiple co-benefits that could be achieved by abating nitrous oxide emissions. With the Paris Climate Agreement calling for limiting global temperature increases to “well below” two degrees Celsius, all mitigation opportunities across all sectors need to be considered. This paper suggests that nitrous oxide warrants more attention from policy-makers in the U.S. and around the world.     

Contact toxicities of anuran skin alkaloids against the fire ant (Solenopsis invicta)

Nearly 500 alkaloids, representing over 20 structural classes, have been identified from the skin of neotropical poison frogs (Dendrobatidae). These cutaneous compounds, which are derived from arthropod prey of the frogs, generally are believed to deter predators. We tested the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) for toxicosis following contact with 20 alkaloids (12 structural classes) identified from dendrobatids or other anurans. Individual ants forced to contact the dried residues of 13 compounds exhibited convulsions and/or reduced ambulation. We estimated the cutaneous concentrations of several compounds based on their reported recoveries from skin extracts of free-ranging frogs and our measurements of the skin surface areas of museum specimens. Pumiliotoxin 251D exhibited contact toxicity below its estimated cutaneous concentration in the Ecuadorian frog, Epipedobates anthonyi, an observation consistent with the hypothesized role of this compound in anuran chemical defense. Our results and those of a previous study of mosquitoes indicate that some anuran skin compounds function defensively as contact toxins against arthropods, permeating their exoskeleton.     

A queen pheromone induces workers to kill sexual larvae in colonies of the red imported fire ant (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Solenopsis invicta</Emphasis>)

We conducted five bioassays to study how queens control the execution of sexual larvae by workers in colonies of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta. In each assay, subset colonies were made from many large polygyne colonies, and the 20 sexual larvae they contained were monitored over time. Sexual larvae mostly survived in queenless colonies, but were mostly killed in colonies with a single dealated queen, regardless of whether or not the queen was fertilized. The larvae were also killed when fresh corpses of queens were added to queenless colonies. Whereas acetone extracts of queens did not produce a significant increase in killings, extracts in buffered saline induced workers to execute most sexual larvae, indicating successful extraction of an execution pheromone. We identified the probable storage location of the chemical as the poison sac, and found both fresh (1 day) and old (21 day) extracts of poison sacs to be equally effective in inducing executions. The pheromone is stable at room temperature, perhaps because venom alkaloids also present in the extracts keep the pheromone from degrading. It is apparently either proteinaceous or associated with a proteinaceous molecule, a novel finding, as no queen pheromone of a proteinaceous nature has been previously demonstrated in ants.     

Is river rehabilitation economically viable in water-scarce basins?

Decisions on river rehabilitation actions are often based on cost-benefit analyses taking into account the costs and benefits of the considered management actions, but ecosystem services are often not included as benefits, despite recent evidences on the effects of river rehabilitations on ecosystem services. A cost-benefit analysis integrating market and non-market costs and benefits was undertaken in this study to assess the economic feasibility of a river rehabilitation project in a water scarce region, the Yarqon River Rehabilitation project (Israel). In this case, the costs included both the capital costs of implementing rehabilitation measures (including maintenance costs) and the opportunity costs of water allocation (foregone benefits to farmers from water provisioning for agriculture). The benefits of rehabilitation included the net marginal benefits of the cultural ecosystem services at local scale (estimated with a hedonic pricing method), and at regional scale (estimated with a value function transfer), in addition to the habitat service gene-pool protection (estimated with a replacement cost method). Bearing in mind the uncertainties surrounding water resource management decisions, especially in water scarce areas, a sensitivity and risk analysis was conducted using an analysis that included both Monte Carlo simulations and the standardized regression coefficients method. The rehabilitation of the Yarqon River provided positive net present values (approximately $139 million in 30-year period). This was thanks to the provision of cultural ecosystem services and despite the high rehabilitation costs, and that the massive water reallocation involved high foregone benefits to farmers. Therefore, these results highlight that river rehabilitation in water scarce regions can be economically viable due to the social amenity demand for urban rivers.     

Cap and trade policy for managing water competition from potential future carbon plantations

Carbon sequestration from reforestation can play a large role in mitigating global climate change. However, resulting interception of rainfall runoff may impose high irrigation, water supply and/or environmental flow costs. This article presents an assessment of water trade policy to manage fresh water supply, carbon sequestration trade-offs for the Murray-Darling Basin. A linked Australian high spatial resolution land use and global integrated assessment framework evaluated plausible and internally-consistent global scenarios to 2050 involving significant carbon planting incentive. Substantial flow loss from increased interception was estimated absent policy to balance carbon water trade-offs. Absent policy to address the trade-off, irrigation opportunity costs was estimated to substantially exceed carbon sequestration economic value in futures with significant carbon sequestration incentive. The value of integrating interception from new carbon plantings into the existing water trade system was estimated at $3.3 billion and $2.0 billion (2050 annual value) for our strong and moderately strong global climate action outlooks with our reference case assumptions. The conclusion that trade provision in policy to cap interception impacts can produce significant benefits in scenarios with significant carbon sequestration incentive remained robust over a very broad set of sensitivities tested with benefit estimated at over $1 billion annually at 2050 even for very conservative assumptions.     

Monetizing the impacts of climate change on the Greek mining sector

Nowadays, it is widely acknowledged that climate change will affect mining industry and may pose significant risks to the economic viability of mining enterprises. So far, the vast majority of recent research efforts on this subject have focused, not surprisingly, on mining activities operating in northern areas. Nevertheless, climate change is an issue that should be of concern for all mining industry, worldwide. For this reason, this paper addresses the impacts of climate change on mining industry in the Mediterranean Region, and specifically Greece, and attempts, for the first time, to estimate the cost of climate change-related risks to the sector by means of a ??top-down?? approach. Towards this direction, climate projections based on the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario (which refers to a fast global economic growth, global population that peaks mid-century and then decreases, and a rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies and a balanced energy source mix) for the time period 2021?C2050 are compared to climate data for the time period 1991?C2000, in order to quantify the impacts in physical terms. Then, both secondary and primary data sources are used to monetize the cost of climate change impacts to mining enterprises. Although there exist certain limitations in the research due to data unavailability, the study reveals the importance of the problem and provides useful findings. More specifically, the estimates indicate that Greece??s mining industry could face economic losses from climate change as high as US$0.8 billion. The cost of adaptation measures is about US$312 million, while that of mitigation measures that will burden the sector through the increased electricity prices is about US$478 million.     

祁连山北麓生态移民的生计风险与应对策略选择——以武威市为例

生计风险作为移民社会整合的标尺,已成为研究生态移民生计及可持续发展的重要视角。以祁连山北麓的武威市为例,利用Binary Logistic模型分析了移民生计风险对其应对策略的影响机制,以期为制定有效的生计风险防范体系提供科学支撑。结果表明：（1）武威市生态移民的生计类型以非农户为主,纯农户比例不足10%,生计多样化指数仅为1.74且存在显著的区域差异。（2）67.44%的移民面临着多重风险,以经济风险为主,生活开支大、新分棚圈耕地质量差、返贫是主要的风险要素。（3）应对策略主要为向亲朋借钱、银行贷款、外出打工和减少开支,后顾生计则多选择扩大养殖、长期打工和维持现状,不同县区移民的策略选择略有不同。（4）政策、福利和经济风险会显著影响移民对“向银行贷款”“减少开支”及“外出打工”等应对策略的选择,而后顾生计的选择更多受制于生计资本储量,而政策及经济风险的影响较低。移民户的类型对策略选择影响显著,非农型兼业户更倾向于选择“向银行贷款”和“扩大养殖”。     

Modeling residual flood risk behind levees,Upper Mississippi River,USA

Flood protection from levees is a mixed blessing, excluding water from the floodplain but creating higher flood levels (“surcharges”) and promoting “residual risk” of flood damages. This study completed 2D hydrodynamic modeling and flood-damage analyses for the 459 km² Sny Island levee system on the Upper Mississippi River. These levees provide large economic benefits, at least $51.1 million per year in prevented damages, the large majority provided to the agricultural sector and a small subset of low-elevation properties. However these benefits simultaneously translate into a large residual risk of flood damage should levees fail or be overtopped; this risk is not recognized either locally in the study area nor in national policy. In addition, the studied levees caused surcharges averaging 1.2–1.5 m and locally as high as 2.4 m, consistent with other sites and studies. The combined hydraulic and economic modeling here documented that levee-related surcharge + the residual risk of levee overtopping or failure can lead to negative benefits, meaning added long-term flood risk. Up to 31% of residential structures in the study area, 8% of agricultural structures, and 22% of commercial structures received negative benefits, totaling $562,500 per year. Although counterintuitive, structures at the margin of a leveed floodplain can incur negative benefits due to greater flood levels resulting from levees purportedly built to protect them. National levee policies and plans for local projects are unbalanced, crediting levee benefits but rarely fully planning for adverse impacts or considering alternatives.