Reproductive plasticity,oviposition site selection,and maternal effects in fragmented landscapes

Traditionally, evolutionary ecology and conservation biology have primarily been concerned with how environmental changes affect population size and genetic diversity. Recently, however, there has been a growing realization that phenotypic plasticity can have important consequences for the probability of population persistence, population growth, and evolution during rapid environmental change. Habitat fragmentation due to human activities is dramatically changing the ecological conditions of life for many organisms. In this review, we use examples from the literature to demonstrate that habitat fragmentation has important consequences on oviposition site selection in insects, with carryover effects on offspring survival and, therefore, population dynamics. We argue that plasticity in oviposition site selection and maternal effects on offspring phenotypes may be an important, yet underexplored, mechanism by which environmental conditions have consequences across generations. Without considering the impact of habitat fragmentation on oviposition site selection, it will be difficult to assess the effect of fragmentation on offspring fitness, and ultimately to understand the impact of anthropogenic-induced environmental change on population viability.     

Demographic heterogeneity, cohort selection, and population growth

Demographic heterogeneity--variation among individuals in survival and reproduction--is ubiquitous in natural populations. Structured population models address heterogeneity due to age, size, or major developmental stages. However, other important sources of demographic heterogeneity, such as genetic variation, spatial heterogeneity in the environment, maternal effects, and differential exposure to stressors, are often not easily measured and hence are modeled as stochasticity. Recent research has elucidated the role of demographic heterogeneity in changing the magnitude of demographic stochasticity in small populations. Here we demonstrate a previously unrecognized effect: heterogeneous survival in long-lived species can increase the long-term growth rate in populations of any size. We illustrate this result using simple models in which each individual's annual survival rate is independent of age but survival may differ among individuals within a cohort. Similar models, but with nonoverlapping generations, have been extensively studied by demographers, who showed that, because the more "frail" individuals are more likely to die at a young age, the average survival rate of the cohort increases with age. Within ecology and evolution, this phenomenon of "cohort selection" is increasingly appreciated as a confounding factor in studies of senescence. We show that, when placed in a population model with overlapping generations, this heterogeneity also causes the asymptotic population growth rate lambda to increase, relative to a homogeneous population with the same mean survival rate at birth. The increase occurs because, even integrating over all the cohorts in the population, the population becomes increasingly dominated by the more robust individuals. The growth rate increases monotonically with the variance in survival rates, and the effect can be substantial, easily doubling the growth rate of slow-growing populations. Correlations between parent and offspring phenotype change the magnitude of the increase in lambda, but the increase occurs even for negative parent-offspring correlations. The effect of heterogeneity in reproductive rate on lambda is quite different: growth rate increases with reproductive heterogeneity for positive parent-offspring correlation but decreases for negative parent-offspring correlation. These effects of demographic heterogeneity on lambda have important implications for population dynamics, population viability analysis, and evolution.     

Assessing hypotheses about nesting site occupancy dynamics

Hypotheses about habitat selection developed in the evolutionary ecology framework assume that individuals, under some conditions, select breeding habitat based on expected fitness in different habitat. The relationship between habitat quality and fitness may be reflected by breeding success of individuals, which may in turn be used to assess habitat quality. Habitat quality may also be assessed via local density: if high-quality sites are preferentially used, high density may reflect high-quality habitat. Here we assessed whether site occupancy dynamics vary with site surrogates for habitat quality. We modeled nest site use probability in a seabird subcolony (the Black-legged Kittiwake, Rissa tridactyla) over a 20-year period. We estimated site persistence (an occupied site remains occupied from time t to t+1) and colonization through two subprocesses: first colonization (site creation at the timescale of the study) and recolonization (a site is colonized again after being deserted). Our model explicitly incorporated site-specific and neighboring breeding success and conspecific density in the neighborhood. Our results provided evidence that reproductively "successful" sites have a higher persistence probability than "unsuccessful" ones. Analyses of site fidelity in marked birds and of survival probability showed that high site persistence predominantly reflects site fidelity, not immediate colonization by new owners after emigration or death of previous owners. There is a negative quadratic relationship between local density and persistence probability. First colonization probability decreases with density, whereas recolonization probability is constant. This highlights the importance of distinguishing initial colonization and recolonization to understand site occupancy. All dynamics varied positively with neighboring breeding success. We found evidence of a positive interaction between site-specific and neighboring breeding success. We addressed local population dynamics using a site occupancy approach integrating hypotheses developed in behavioral ecology to account for individual decisions. This allows development of models of population and metapopulation dynamics that explicitly incorporate ecological and evolutionary processes.     

Spatial uncertainty analysis of population models

This paper describes an approach for conducting spatial uncertainty analysis of spatial population models, and illustrates the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial population models typically simulate birth, death, and migration on an input map that describes habitat. Typically, only a single “reference” map is available, but we can imagine that a collection of other, slightly different, maps could be drawn to represent a particular species’ habitat. As a first approximation, our approach assumes that spatial uncertainty (i.e., the variation among values assigned to a location by such a collection of maps) is constrained by characteristics of the reference map, regardless of how the map was produced. Our approach produces lower levels of uncertainty than alternative methods used in landscape ecology because we condition our alternative landscapes on local properties of the reference map. Simulated spatial uncertainty was higher near the borders of patches. Consequently, average uncertainty was highest for reference maps with equal proportions of suitable and unsuitable habitat, and no spatial autocorrelation. We used two population viability models to evaluate the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial uncertainty produced larger variation among predictions of a spatially explicit model than those of a spatially implicit model. Spatially explicit model predictions of final female population size varied most among landscapes with enough clustered habitat to allow persistence. In contrast, predictions of population growth rate varied most among landscapes with only enough clustered habitat to support a small population, i.e., near a spatially mediated extinction threshold. We conclude that spatial uncertainty has the greatest effect on persistence when the amount and arrangement of suitable habitat are such that habitat capacity is near the minimum required for persistence.     

Exploring Population Dynamics Patterns in a Rare Fish, Zingel asper, through Capture-Mark-Recapture Methods

Abstract:  We performed a capture-mark-recapture study on one of the last populations of Zingel asper , an endemic percid species of the Rhône River basin in France. The distribution of Z. asper has decreased dramatically during the last century. We sampled three sites in suitable habitats in the Beaume River. No impact of individual tagging on survival was found. The demography of the population was analyzed using capture-recapture methods that allow the estimation of survival, recruitment, and demographic growth rates. Annual survival rates were low (0.35–0.50). The level of transience was high (5% to 25%), suggesting that a significant number of individuals were highly mobile or shifted to suboptimal habitats. Seniority rates suggested random highly variable recruitment between years. The three sites had similar variation patterns in all demographic parameters, indicating broad spatial covariation in population dynamics. We found some local differences in demographic parameters, which could be linked to local habitat quality. Individual tagging allowed for the estimation of demographic parameters that improved our understanding of Z. asper population dynamics and revealed mechanisms that may affect population persistence, such as stochastic recruitment, low survival, and frequent dispersal. The fragmentation of habitat through river damming inhibits dispersal and represents a threat to the persistence of Z. asper in the Rhône basin. Our results offer evidence of the importance of dispersal in nonmigratory fishes and confirm the usefulness of individual tagging methods in rare fish demography.     

Conservation of Species in Dynamic Landscapes: Divergent Fates of Silene tatarica Populations in Riparian Habitats

Abstract:  In transient environments, where local extinctions occur as a result of destruction or deterioration of the local habitat, the long-term persistence of a species requires successful colonizations at new, suitable sites. This kind of habitat tracking should be associated with the asynchronous dynamics of local populations, and it can be especially important for the conservation of rare plant species in riparian habitats. We determined spatiotemporal variation in the demography of the perennial Silene tatarica (L.) Pers. in 15 populations (1998–2003) located in periodically disturbed riparian habitats. The habitats differed according to their morphology (flat shores, slopes) and the amount of bare ground (open, intermediate, closed) along a successional gradient. We used elasticity and life-table response analyses and stochastic simulations to study the variation in population demography. Finite population growth rate was higher in intermediate habitats than in open and closed habitats. In stochastic simulations population size increased in most cases, but four populations were projected to become extinct within 12–70 years. The viability of local populations depended most on the survival and growth of juvenile individuals and on the fecundity of large fertile individuals. On a regional scale, the persistence of this species will require a viable network of local populations as protection against local extinctions caused by natural disturbances and succession. Accordingly, the long-term persistence of riparian species may depend on habitat changes; thus, their conservation requires maintenance of natural disturbance dynamics. Along regulated rivers, management activities such as the creation of open habitats for new colonization should be implemented. Similarly, these activities can be rather general requirements for the conservation of endangered species dependent on transient habitats along successional gradients.     

Distance-based eigenvector maps (DBEM) to analyse metapopulation structure with irregular sampling

Characterizing spatial patterns due to ecological processes is a major issue for analysing and predicting species distributions. Grasping the non-linear nature of population dynamics over networks of discrete suitable sites is here central, as very specific signatures are expected. In the line of promising results from Fourier analysis of metapopulation maps, we found distance-based eigenvector maps (DBEM) to help disentangle the respective signatures of habitat and metapopulation structuring, with the great advantage of being applicable to irregular sampling schemes, a common feature of ecological surveys. A smoothing procedure was required to obtain the distinguishable signatures, and this may be a critical issue for investigating non-contingent and reliable patterns in spatial ecology.     

Evolution of Nesting Height in an Endangered Hawaiian Forest Bird in Response to a Non‐Native Predator

Abstract: The majority of bird extinctions since 1800 have occurred on islands, and non‐native predators have been the greatest threat to the persistence of island birds. Island endemic species often lack life‐history traits and behaviors that reduce the probability of predation and they can become evolutionarily trapped if they are unable to adapt, but few studies have examined the ability of island species to respond to novel predators. The greatest threat to the persistence of the Oahu Elepaio (Chasiempis ibidis), an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, is nest predation by non‐native black rats (Rattus rattus). I examined whether Oahu Elepaio nest placement has changed at the individual and population levels in response to rat predation by measuring nest height and determining whether each nest produced offspring from 1996 to 2011. Average height of Oahu Elepaio nests increased 50% over this 16‐year period, from 7.9 m (SE 1.7) to 12.0 m (SE 1.1). There was no net change in height of sequential nests made by individual birds, which means individual elepaios have not learned to place nests higher. Nests ≤3 m off the ground produced offspring less often, and the proportion of such nests declined over time, which suggests that nest‐building behavior has evolved through natural selection by predation. Nest success increased over time, which may increase the probability of long‐term persistence of the species. Rat control may facilitate the evolution of nesting height by slowing the rate of population decline and providing time for this adaptive response to spread through the population.     

The Potential for Species Conservation in Tropical Secondary Forests

Abstract: In the wake of widespread loss of old‐growth forests throughout the tropics, secondary forests will likely play a growing role in the conservation of forest biodiversity. We considered a complex hierarchy of factors that interact in space and time to determine the conservation potential of tropical secondary forests. Beyond the characteristics of local forest patches, spatial and temporal landscape dynamics influence the establishment, species composition, and persistence of secondary forests. Prospects for conservation of old‐growth species in secondary forests are maximized in regions where the ratio of secondary to old‐growth forest area is relatively low, older secondary forests have persisted, anthropogenic disturbance after abandonment is relatively low, seed‐dispersing fauna are present, and old‐growth forests are close to abandoned sites. The conservation value of a secondary forest is expected to increase over time, as species arriving from remaining old‐growth forest patches accumulate. Many studies are poorly replicated, which limits robust assessments of the number and abundance of old‐growth species present in secondary forests. Older secondary forests are not often studied and few long‐term studies are conducted in secondary forests. Available data indicate that both old‐growth and second‐growth forests are important to the persistence of forest species in tropical, human‐modified landscapes.     

Insect behavioural ecology and other factors affecting the control efficacy of agro-ecosystem diversification strategies

In the last decade there is an increased interest in the design and use of diversified pest-suppressive agro-ecosystems. A diversification approach aims to manipulate the spatial dynamics of herbivores by adding a trap crop that attracts and retains herbivores in the non-crop area or by adding a disruptive crop that induces an emigration response. Empirical studies have shown that there is a wide variation in insect herbivore response to vegetation diversification. To increase the predictability and reliability of this approach it is necessary to understand the mechanisms underlying herbivore population response to diversified agro-ecosystems. We use a spatially explicit, individual-based, simulation framework, with a strong emphasis on the behavioural ecology of insects, to explore the factors that influence the population regulatory effect of agro-ecosystem diversification. The reported wide variation in population response of herbivores to diverse agro-ecosystems is replicated in this study. In our simulations we found that the population regulation effect of diversification can be positive, negative or negligible. Behavioural factors that influenced the spatial dynamics of herbivore populations were the colonisation pattern, movement speed and sensory mode of finding host plants. Simulations show that the strength of inhibition of flight by the trap crop (i.e. arrestment) is the most important parameter to manipulate the spatial dynamics of insects with post-alighting host recognition behaviour. For herbivore species that use olfactory or visual cues to find host plants, the mechanism of aggregation in the trap crop is a combination of attraction and arrestment and hence the population regulatory effect of the trap crop is higher compared to herbivores with post-alighting host recognition behaviour. An important factor that influences the efficacy of the disruptive cropping strategy is the strength of the emigration-inducing effect of the vegetation. The simulation framework is a valuable tool to test hypotheses on insect behaviour and dynamics in heterogeneous environments and can be used to determine optimal diversification systems and hence generate guidance for establishing environmentally benign pest control strategies.     

Ultimate causes and the evolution of altruism

Reconciling the evolution of altruism with Darwinian natural selection is frequently presented as a fundamental problem in biology. In addition to an exponentially increasing literature on specific mechanisms that can permit altruism to evolve, there has been a recent trend to establish general principles to explain altruism in populations undergoing natural selection. This paper reviews and extends one approach to understanding the ultimate causes underlying the evolution of altruism and mechanisms that can realise them, based on the Price equation. From the Price equation, we can see that such ultimate causes equate to the different ways in which the frequency of an altruistic allele in a population can increase. Under this approach, the ultimate causes underlying the evolution of altruism, given some positive fitness costs and benefits, are positive assortment of altruistic alleles with the altruistic behaviour of others, positive deviations from additive fitness effects when multiple altruists interact or bias in the inheritance of altruistic traits. In some cases, one cause can be interpreted in terms of another. The ultimate causes thus identified can be realised by a number of different mechanisms, and to demonstrate its general applicability, I use the Price equation approach to analyse a number of classical mechanisms known to support the evolution of altruism (or cooperation): repeated interaction, ‘greenbeard’ traits, games played on graphs and payoff synergism. I also briefly comment on other important points for the evolution of altruism, such as the ongoing debate over the predominant status of inclusive fitness as the best way to understand its evolution. I conclude by arguing that analysing the evolution of altruism in terms of its ultimate causes is the logical way to approach the problem and that, despite some of its technical limitations, the Price equation approach is a particularly powerful way of doing so.     

Splitting the tail of the displacement kernel shows the unimportance of kurtosis

Animals disperse in space through different movement behaviors, resulting in different displacement distances. This is often described with a displacement kernel where the long-distance dispersers are within the tail of the kernel. A displacement with a large proportion of long-distance dispersers may have impact on different aspects of spatial ecology such as invasion speed, population persistence, and distribution. It is, however, unclear whether the kurtosis of the kernel plays a major role since a fatter tail also influences the variance of the kernel. We modeled displacement in landscapes with different amounts and configurations of habitats and handled kurtosis and variance separately to study how these affected population distribution and transition time. We conclude that kurtosis is not important for any of these aspects of spatial ecology. The variance of the kernel, on the other hand, was of great importance to both population distribution and transition time. We argue that separating variance and kurtosis can cast new light on the way in which long-distance dispersers are important in ecological processes. Consequences for empirical studies are discussed.     

The triple helix of Plantago lanceolata: genetics and the environment interact to determine population dynamics

The theory of evolution via natural selection predicts that the genetic composition of wild populations changes over time in response to the environment. Different genotypes should exhibit different demographic patterns, but genetic variation in demography is often impossible to separate from environmental variation. Here, we asked if genetic variation is important in determining demographic patterns. We answer this question using a long-term field experiment combined with general linear modeling of deterministic population growth rates (lambda), deterministic life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis, and stochastic simulation of demography by paternal lineage in a short-lived perennial plant, Plantago lanceolata, in which we replicated genotypes across four cohorts using a standard breeding design. General linear modeling showed that growth rate varied significantly with year, spatial block, and sire. In LTRE analysis of all cohorts, the strongest influences on growth rate were from year x spatial block, and cohort x year x spatial block interactions. In analysis of genetics vs. temporal environmental variation, the strongest impacts on growth rate were from year and year x sire. Finally, stochastic simulation suggested different genetic composition among cohorts after 100 years, and different population growth rates when genetic differences were accounted for than when they were not. We argue that genetic variation, genotype x environment interactions, natural selection, and cohort effects should be better integrated into population ecological studies, as these processes should result in deviations from projected deterministic and stochastic population parameters.     

A Behaviorally Explicit Demographic Model Integrating Habitat Selection and Population Dynamics in California Sea Lions

Abstract: Although there has been a call for the integration of behavioral ecology and conservation biology, there are few tools currently available to achieve this integration. Explicitly including information about behavioral strategies in population viability analyses may enhance the ability of conservation biologists to understand and estimate patterns of extinction risk. Nevertheless, most behavioral‐based PVA approaches require detailed individual‐based data that are rarely available for imperiled species. We present a mechanistic approach that incorporates spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models used for conservation. We developed a stage‐structured matrix model that includes the costs and benefits of movement associated with 2 habitat‐selection strategies (philopatry and direct assessment). Using a life table for California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), we explored the sensitivity of model predictions to the inclusion of these behavioral parameters. Including behavioral information dramatically changed predicted population sizes, model dynamics, and the expected distribution of individuals among sites. Estimated population sizes projected in 100 years diverged up to 1 order of magnitude among scenarios that assumed different movement behavior. Scenarios also exhibited different model dynamics that ranged from stable equilibria to cycles or extinction. These results suggest that inclusion of behavioral data in viability models may improve estimates of extinction risk for imperiled species. Our approach provides a simple method for incorporating spatial and demographic consequences of behavioral strategies into population models and may be easily extended to other species and behaviors to understand the mechanisms of population dynamics for imperiled populations.     

Spatiotemporal variation in survival rates: implications for population dynamics of yellow-bellied marmots

Spatiotemporal variation in age-specific survival rates can profoundly influence population dynamics, but few studies of vertebrates have thoroughly investigated both spatial and temporal variability in age-specific survival rates. We used 28 years (1976-2003) of capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from 17 locations to parameterize an age-structured Cormack-Jolly-Seber model, and investigated spatial and temporal variation in age-specific annual survival rates of yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris). Survival rates varied both spatially and temporally, with survival of younger animals exhibiting the highest degree of variation. Juvenile survival rates varied from 0.52 +/- 0.05 to 0.78 +/- 0.10 among sites and from 0.15 +/- 0.14 to 0.89 +/- 0.06 over time. Adult survival rates varied from 0.62 +/- 0.09 to 0.80 +/- 0.03 among sites, but did not vary significantly over time. We used reverse-time CMR models to estimate the realized population growth rate (lamda), and to investigate the influence of the observed variation in age-specific survival rates on lamda. The realized growth rate of the population closely covaried with, and was significantly influenced by, spatiotemporal variation in juvenile survival rate. High variability in juvenile survival rates over space and time clearly influenced the dynamics of our study population and is also likely to be an important determinant of the spatiotemporal variation in the population dynamics of other mammals with similar life history characteristics.     

Rapid Evolution in the Wild: Changes in Body Size, Life-History Traits, and Behavior in Hunted Populations of the Japanese Mamushi Snake

Abstract:  Rapid evolution caused by human exploitation of wildlife is not usually addressed in studies of the impacts of such exploitation despite its direct relevance to population persistence. Japanese mamushi ( Gloydius blomhoffii ), an endemic venomous snake of the Japanese archipelago, has been heavily hunted by humans, and many populations appear to be declining or are already extirpated. We compared local populations that have been hunted regularly with populations that have not been hunted. Mamushi in hunted populations were smaller, had fewer vertebrae, produced more and smaller offspring, had increased reproductive effort among smaller females, and in nature fled at greater distances from an approaching human and were less defensive than mamushi in unhunted populations, as predicted from life-history theory. Heritability estimates for body size, number of vertebrae, and antipredator behavior were statistically significant, and neonates from hunted sites showed the same distribution of altered characters (compared with those from unhunted sites) as adults. Thus, distribution of the divergent trait between hunted and unhunted sites appeared in part to be genetically based, which suggests rapid evolution to human predation pressures. Trait distributions in hunted populations probably deviate from naturally (as opposed to anthropogenically) selected optima and, therefore, may have long-term negative repercussions on population persistence. Because rapid evolution affects a suite of parameters that characterize exploited populations, accurate understanding of the impacts of exploitation and effective resource management and conservation can only be achieved if evolutionary consequences are considered explicitly.     

Evolving metacommunities: toward an evolutionary perspective on metacommunities

The metacommunity framework predicts that local coexistence depends on the outcome of local species interactions and regional migration. In analogous fashion, spatial structure among populations can shape species interactions through evolutionary mechanisms. Yet, most metacommunity theories assume that populations do not evolve. Here, we evaluate how evolution shapes local species coexistence and exclusion within the multiscale and multispecies context embodied by the metacommunity framework. In general, coexistence in joint ecological-evolutionary models requires low to intermediate dispersal rates that can promote maintenance of both regional species and genetic diversity. These conditions support a set of key mechanisms that modify patterns of species coexistence including local adaptation, gene storage effects, genetic rescue effects, spatial genetic subsidies, and metacommunity evolution. Multispecies extensions indicate that correlated selection can further alter the outcome of interspecific interactions depending on the magnitude and direction of correlations and shape of fitness trade-offs. We suggest that an evolving metacommunity perspective has the potential to generate novel predictions about community structure and function by incorporating the genetic and species diversity that characterize natural communities. In adopting such a perspective, we seek to facilitate understanding about the interactions between evolutionary and metacommunity dynamics.     

Living in a ghetto within a local population: an empirical example of an ideal despotic distribution

Merging patterns and processes about the way individuals should be distributed in a habitat is a key issue in the framework of spatial ecology. Here the despotic distribution of individuals in two distinct and neighboring patches within a local population of a long-lived colonial bird, the Yellow-legged Gull (Larus michahellis), was assessed. There was no density dependence for suitable habitat at the study population, but behavioral data suggested that birds from the good patch precluded birds from the bad patch from breeding in their patch. Younger breeders were almost exclusively found in the bad patch, where individuals were probably attracted by conspecific attraction from the good patch. Most breeding parameters were lower in the bad patch, resulting mainly from a higher vulnerability to environmental perturbations and a higher rate of intraspecific nest predation. Attempts at breeding dispersal between the two patches were only observed from the bad to the good patch. Strikingly, adult survival and large-scale dispersal, two life history parameters that are very conservative in long-lived organisms, were also more affected at the bad patch when catastrophic predation occurred. The study was consistent with an ideal despotic distribution at small spatial scale, and suggests that individual behavior can influence local population dynamics.     

A dynamic host selection model for mountain pine beetle,Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins

The link between individual habitat selection decisions (i.e., mechanism) and the resulting population distributions of dispersing organisms (i.e., outcome) has been little-studied in behavioural ecology. Here we consider density-dependent habitat (i.e., host) selection for an energy- and time-limited forager: the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). We present a dynamic state variable model of individual beetle host selection behaviour, based on an individual’s energy state. Field data are incorporated into model parameterization which allows us to determine the effects of host availability (with respect to host size, quality, and vigour) on individuals’ decisions. Beetles choose larger trees with thicker phloem across a larger proportion of the state-space than smaller trees with thinner phloem, but accept lower quality trees more readily at low energy- and time-states. In addition, beetles make habitat selection decisions based on host availability, conspecific attack densities, and beetle distributions within a forest stand. This model provides a framework for the development of a spatial game model to examine the implications of these results for attack dynamics of beetle populations.