Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

     

Education at the Commission on Sustainable Development: the perception of the international community

This paper explores the role of education as it might assist in achieving a sustainable world. It examines the perceptions of the international community present at the seventh session of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD). A survey was conducted of 146 delegates and UN staff over the two weeks of the Commission's session in April 1999. The survey identified the primary importance placed on education as a cross-cutting theme of sustainability and the need for efforts to be co-ordinated to achieve education for sustainable development at all levels. To make further progress for implementing Agenda 21, the task management by UNESCO must improve through instigation of a supportive reporting system at the CSD. The education community must receive appropriate support and funding to make effective progress at local and national levels to implement the work programme for education, public awareness and training.     

Environmental health and safety management at vulcan chemicals: Total quality and auditing

At Vulcan Chemicals, total quality requires auditing and auditing ensures total quality. This article details the continuing integration of the two processes and describes some of the audits—and their measured regulate.     

Reflexivity and developmental constructs: the case of sustainable futures

ABSTRACT

The quest for sustainability signals a departure from industrialist presuppositions about the human capacity to control nature that had hardly been questioned during the modern era. Environmental politics, indeed, entered the public scene with warnings of environmental crisis that disrupted industrialist assumptions and supported a call for a dramatic change in course. As environmental problems became part of an agenda of sustainable development, however, there came a shift from a disruptive politics towards professionalization and a managerial emphasis. A reflexive approach to sustainability needs to reconsider the relevance of politics while also thematizing problems of history and power. The concept of ‘developmental constructs’, which Harold D. Lasswell offered as part of his proposal for a reflexive project of contextual mapping, is advanced here as relevant to that end. Comparing the early interventions of Rachel Carson and Amory Lovins to Lasswell's conception of developmental constructs, the article maintains that such proposals for sustainable futures highlight the importance of a political connection.     

Technology and science: innovation at the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology

While science advances technology, it is also true that technology advances science. Thus, the two bodies of knowledge are increasingly recognized as interdependent. Nonetheless, recent advances in information communication technology (ICT), in particular, may have profound implications for the norms by which science is conducted. For example, treatment of data will increasingly be in terms of probability distributions, rather than as point estimates, because the cost of computation is now so low that more robust approaches to treatment of uncertainty are within the grasp of normal science. Perhaps more importantly, the techniques by which scientists collaborate, communicate, and curate science are undergoing a rare period of rapid change. The papers in this special section exemplify the evolution of the relationship between technology and science in these two important ways: (1) treatment of data uncertainties and (2) participation in novel methods of publication and review. The latter was fostered by the 2016 meeting of the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technologies (ISSST), at which all of the papers in this special section were presented. This editorial summarizes some of the trends in ICT that are the subject of experimentation in ISSST and introduces the idea that scientific societies in the information age are more likely to take the form of a network than they are likely to look like the societies of the last several centuries.     

Views of the City: multiple pathways to sustainable transport futures

In this paper we look behind the notion of sustainable transport and highlight the tensions and contradictions between the different ways of achieving this. The paper examines transportation plans for a major UK city and describes how these develop the idea and practice of sustainable transport and demand management along three quite distinct trajectories. By focusing on both the technological and the institutional dimensions of three different routes to sustainable transport, the analysis explicates the different ways in which the urban transport problem is framed, the different socio-technical logics of demand management embodied in the plans and the differing ways in which institutional relationships are (re)constituted. A key finding is that technological and institutional innovations are inversely related so that radical technological innovation often serves to reinforce existing social relations of power and exclusion. The conclusion drawn is that the choice is not just between a sustainable and an unsustainable transport future, but also between different forms of sustainability.     

Views of the City: Multiple pathways to sustainable transport futures

In this paper we look behind the notion of sustainable transport and highlight the tensions and contradictions between the different ways of achieving this. The paper examines transportation plans for a major UK city and describes how these develop the idea and practice of sustainable transport and demand management along three quite distinct trajectories. By focusing on both the technological and the institutional dimensions of three different routes to sustainable transport, the analysis explicates the different ways in which the urban transport problem is framed, the different socio-technical logics of demand management embodied in the plans and the differing ways in which institutional relationships are (re)constituted. A key finding is that technological and institutional innovations are inversely related so that radical technological innovation often serves to reinforce existing social relations of power and exclusion. The conclusion drawn is that the choice is not just between a sustainable and an unsustainable transport future, but also between different forms of sustainability.     

International commodity transactions : The role of the commodity futures trading commission

The creation of so-called ‘financial’ futures contracts in the USA has spurred the growth of futures trading by other countries, including the UK. The increased expansion of commodity futures trading has also led to heightened regulatory concerns throughout the world. The USA has been especially aggressive in asserting jurisdiction and establishing regulatory controls over persons dealing in the US markets. The complexity of the regulations adopted is compounded by the fact that they are often directed at specific instruments, while similar instruments are not given comparable regulatory treatment. This article discusses the growth of futures trading worldwide, as well as regulatory concerns and requirements existing in the USA.     

Drinking water risk assessment in practice: the case of Swedish drinking water producers at risk from floods

To achieve a safe and reliable drinking water supply, water producers need to manage a large range of risks regarding both water quality and quantity. A risk management approach where risks are systematically identified and handled in a preventive manner is promoted by the World Health Organization and supported by researchers and drinking water experts worldwide. Risk assessment is an important part of such a management approach, and a variety of tools for risk assessment are described in the literature. There is, however, little knowledge of how drinking water risk assessment is performed in practice, including which tools that are actually used. This study investigates the use of risk assessment tools, and the approach to risk management, on a local level in the Swedish water sector. It is based on interviews with key persons from a targeted selection of water producers. We find that the application of tools as well as the approach to risk assessment and management differs considerably between the water producers. The tools most frequently used are mainly the ones promoted or required by Swedish national organizations. Although many of the water producers have done some kind of risk assessment, most have not implemented a risk management approach. Furthermore, their knowledge of the concepts of risk and risk management is often limited. The largest challenge identified is to prioritize risk assessment, so that it is actually performed and then used as a basis for managing risk in a systematic way.     

Dynamic real-time risk analytics of uncontrollable states in complex internet of things systems: cyber risk at the edge

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

     

Opencasting — putting the environment at risk?

Opencast coalmining has been undertaken in Britain since 1942, but national policy towards its role in the energy market has fluctuated, and today there is a growing awareness of its detrimental impact on the environment. This paper explores the changing policy background since 1974 and, through an examination of recent planning appeal decisions, assesses the weight placed on the competing factors underlying the present formulation of government policy. It is submitted that at present government has failed to formulate a coherent policy in terms of land‐use and that the cost of this failure is a continued erosion of the environment.     

Planning methodology for predicting spatial patterns of risk potential from industrial land uses

The nature of environmental risk is often determined by the location patterns of industrial firms in a locale. We develop a methodology for analyzing the capacity of toxics-generating industries to leave toxic residuals on the landscape, in the context of long-term master planning. To understand an area's risk profile, we first characterize the location pattern of risk-generating firms and develop ways to represent the risk potentials of these shapes. To this end, we develop a geometric approach for characterizing the spatial patterns of these clusters of dirty industries, using new measures for analyzing spatial densities and compactness. We then introduce context (i.e. actual zoning patterns, transportation corridors) and explain how this relates to the spatial patterns found. We illustrate this analytical method with application to Orange County, California, USA and point out how it affords a deeper understanding of the connections between industry and environmental risk. We end the article with a discussion of how these analytical methods might be used for land use planning.     

Disconnected futures: exploring notions of ethical responsibility in energy practices

This article aims to explore people's connections to or disconnections from the future and the implications of this for their perspectives on equity, justice and ethical issues related to energy consumption. Everything people do is embedded and extended in time across the modalities of past, present and future, making time an inescapable aspect of our existence, yet one that often remains invisible and intangible. Debates about energy and environmental equity have raised questions about the extent to which people today should bear responsibility for the consequences of their behaviour for future generations. Seemingly intractable difficulties have been identified, however, in people's abilities to connect their present actions with their potential future consequences and thus take on such responsibilities. Drawing on data from interviews about energy consumption practices, this article explores whether people's living temporal extensions through younger generations of their families influence their views and practices around energy use in both the present and anticipated future. Through exploring these issues we offer a contribution to the ethical debate around responsibility for future generations.     

Sustainable Development: A Transdisciplinary Overview of the Literature

The literature on sustainable development has burgeoned. Over the past decade, concern about sustainability has been raised within such a wide range of social and natural science discourses that a comprehensive overview of this work is hard to find. Literature reviews that are available typically have a disciplinary focus-such as ecological economics or environmental science-or they have an applied social science/ policy emphasis. This paper bridges the multiple discourses by arraying them as interlocked parts of a grand puzzle. Ten fields of discourse are identified and conceptually mapped. The review is critical, yet constructive. It outlines a political ecology of sustainable development by articulating four key challenges concerning: (1) holism and co-evolution; (2) social justice and equity; (3) empowerment and community building; and (4) sustainable production and reproduction.     

Climate negotiations at a crucial stage: the Hague meeting of contracting Parties in November 2000 and its follow-up

The author discusses the central issues of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol in the general context of the Rio process. The nexus of issues under negotiation in relation to climate change are viewed in the context of multilateral diplomacy for sustainable development. The article outlines the background to the important Sixth Conference of the Parties, held in the Hague in November 2000, and highlights the relationship between the main actors in the negotiations. Finally, the main results of the Hague negotiations are presented, followed by comments on follow-up procedures and perspectives.     

Critical factors in effective construction waste minimization at the design stage: A Shenzhen case study,China

Construction waste minimization at the design stage is a key strategy in effective waste reduction. However, it seems that few studies focus on exploratory factors that can significantly improve the design of construction waste minimization. This paper addresses this research gap by presenting a set of critical factors that inform and improve the practice of waste minimization design, particularly in the context of Shenzhen, China. Nineteen potential factors which can influence effective waste minimization are presented based on related official guidelines, reports and literature. Top institutions in Shenzhen that have received a Grade A building design certification were surveyed through a questionnaire. From this survey, six critical factors are derived: (1) large-panel metal formworks, (2) prefabricated components, (3) fewer design modifications, (4) modular design, (5) waste reduction investment and (6) economic incentive. The applicability and significance of the identified critical factors for effectively designing waste minimization are also explored. These critical factors not only provide designers and project managers with a useful set of criteria for effective design strategies to reduce construction waste, but also serve as valuable references for the government to formulate related construction waste minimization regulations.