考虑空间效应的出租车超速行为道路因素分析

为充分利用道路特征干预出租车超速行为,搜集成都市区内出租车全球定位系统(GPS)轨迹数据,识别其超速行为,并采集道路特征数据,以各道路的出租车超速频数及平均超速严重度为超速特征,应用全局莫兰指数和4类空间回归模型,分别确定超速特征及道路因素的空间自相关性和显著影响出租车超速特征的道路因素.研究结果表明:出租车超速行为和...     

Are sociodemographic characteristics and attitude good predictors of speeding behavior among drivers on Malaysia federal roads?

Objective: The increasing number of road crashes and fatalities on Malaysian federal roads is a cause for concern. The main causes of road crashes and fatalities on federal roads have been attributed to the speeding behavior among drivers. As such, this research investigates the possible predictors from sociodemographic characteristics and attitudes in predicting speeding behavior among drivers on Malaysia federal roads.

Methods: A face-to-face survey was conducted via purposive sampling on 300 drivers at rest areas at 6 crash hotspots on Malaysian federal roads. A set of questions related to speeding behavior was developed. The questionnaire consisted of 10 questions related to sociodemographic characteristics of the participants, 37 questions regarding attitudes toward speeding, and 1 question regarding speeding behavior. Subsequently, the sociodemographics were analyzed using binary logistic regression and the attitude variable was analyzed using factor analysis and binary logistic regression.

Results: The findings from the sociodemographic data revealed that male gender, single/separated status, broad driving experience, crash experience, and leisure/vacation trip purposes emerged as significant predictors for speeding behavior. Additionally, the results of factor analysis for the attitude variable revealed 3 components: Affective, behavioral, and cognitive. These 3 components are originally derived from the ABC model of attitude (affective, behavioral, and cognitive) that was adapted in this study. Furthermore, the findings from binary logistic regression appeared consistent with the model assumption, signifying that behavioral aspects significantly influenced speeding behavior among drivers. Nevertheless, affective and cognitive components were insignificant predictors. Furthermore, strong agreement with speeding countermeasures was observed among the participants.

Conclusion: In conclusion, sociodemographic characteristics and attitude have been proven to affect speeding behavior among drivers on Malaysian federal roads. The findings have important implications in designing driver risk profiles on federal roads to develop suitable countermeasures based on the 4E approach (engagement, education, enforcement, and engineering) to enhance road safety.     

Analyzing the relationships between travel mode indicators and the number of passenger transport fatalities at the city level

Objective: A number of efforts have been conducted on travel behavior and transport fatalities at the neighborhood or street level, and they have identified different factors such as roadway characteristics, personal indicators, and design indicators related to transport safety. However, only a limited number of studies have considered the relationship between travel behavior indicators and the number of transport fatalities at the city level. Therefore, this study explores this relationship and how to fill the mentioned gap in current knowledge.

Method: A generalized linear model (GLM) estimates the relationships between different travel mode indicators (e.g., length of motorway per inhabitants, number of motorcycles per inhabitant, percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle, percentage of daily trips by public transport) and the number of passenger transport fatalities. Because this city-level model is developed using data sets from different cities all over the world, the impacts of gross domestic product (GDP) are also included in the model.

Conclusions: Overall, the results imply that the percentage of daily trips by public transport, the percentage of daily trips on foot and by bicycle, and the GDP per inhabitant have negative relationships with the number of passenger transport fatalities, whereas motorway length and the number of motorcycles have positive relationships with the number of passenger transport fatalities.     

The 2001 National Household Travel Survey: a look into the travel patterns of older Americans

INTRODUCTION: The main objective of this paper is to highlight travel patterns of older adults living in the United States as depicted in the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). The NHTS is a national data collection program sponsored by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the Federal Highway Administration. It is the first national comprehensive household survey of both daily and long-distance travel, allowing for analysis of the full continuum of personal travel by Americans. To better understand the transportation needs of older Americans, it is useful to examine how travel patterns differ across age groups. The intent is to present basic travel characteristics of older adults (age 65+) and allow for comparisons with younger adults (ages 19-64). Travel-related characteristics of older adults in the United States: Results of the 2001 survey showed that older Americans travel extensively and rely on personal vehicles as heavily as their younger counterparts. Older Americans conduct 89% of their travel in personal vehicles. CHARACTERISTICS OF DAILY TRIPS TAKEN BY OLDER ADULTS: Older adults tend to be less mobile in that they take fewer trips, travel shorter distances, and have shorter travel times. This pattern is even more pronounced among older women. They are also more likely to suffer from self-reported medical conditions that further limit their travel. Characteristics of long-distance travel by older adults: Older men and women take long-distance trips at about the same rates and show a strong preference for using personal vehicles. And, while men and women take an equal percentage of their trips by air, older women show a strong preference for bus travel. CONCLUSIONS: Although older Americans travel extensively, they are less mobile than their younger counterparts. This pattern is more pronounced among older women and among those with self-reported medical conditions that affect their ability to travel outside their home. Older women consistently take the least number of trips per day, have the lowest driving rates, travel the shortest distances, and are more likely to report medical conditions that limit their travel. For men and women who have to give up driving, alternative means of transportation becomes a necessity. Yet, use of alternative transportation is relatively low; excluding personal vehicle and walking, all other means of transportation account for about 2% of daily travel. Further, of those with medical conditions that affect their travel, only about 12% use special transportation services such as dial-a-ride.     

Perceived enjoyment,concentration, intention,and speed violation behavior: Using flow theory and theory of planned behavior

Objective: Road accidents are an important public health concern, and speeding is a major contributor. Although flow theory (FLT) is a valid model for understanding behavior, currently the nature of the roles and interplay of FLT constructs within the theory of planned behavior (TPB) framework when attempting to explain the determinants of motivations for intention to speed and speeding behavior of car drivers is not yet known. The study aims to synthesize TPB and FLT in explaining drivers of advanced vehicles intentions to speed and speed violation behaviors and evaluate factors that are critical for explaining intention and behavior.

Method: The hypothesized model was validated using a sample collected from 354 fully licensed drivers of advanced vehicles, involving 278 males and 76 females on 2 occasions separated by a 3-month interval. During the first of the 2 occasions, participants completed questionnaire measures of TPB and FLT variables. Three months later, participants' speed violation behaviors were assessed.

Results: The study observed a significant positive relationship between the constructs. The proposed model accounted for 51 and 45% of the variance in intention to speed and speed violation behavior, respectively. The independent predictors of intention were enjoyment, attitude, and subjective norm. The independent predictors of speed violation behavior were enjoyment, concentration, intention, and perceived behavioral control.

Conclusions: The findings suggest that safety interventions for preventing speed violation behaviors should be aimed at underlying beliefs influencing the speeding behaviors of drivers of advanced vehicles. Furthermore, perceived enjoyment is of equal importance to driver's intention, influencing speed violation behavior.     

Lower flammability limits of flammable ternary organic mixtures: Synergistic behavior

Organic flammable liquids and their mixtures, which possess high risk of combustion and explosion, are widely used as raw materials and solvents in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Lower flammability limits (LFL) is one of the most important parameters to characterize the combustion and explosion hazards of combustible gases and liquid vapors. The LFL of various ternary organic mixtures consist of ketone (acetone and butanone), ester (ethyl acetate) and alcohol (ethanol and isopropanol) were tested at 25 °C and atmospheric pressure. The results showed that resulted LFL values of the experiment were always lower than those calculated by volume fraction weighting method when the volume fraction of alcohol was less than 20 vol% but more than 10 vol%. The co-existence of alcohol and ethyl acetate had synergistic effect on reducing the LFL values of ternary organic mixtures and thus increased their explosive risk. The mechanism of synergistic effect was analyzed, and the results showed that the OH· and H· radicals produced by the oxidation decomposition of alcohols and esters accelerated the oxidation process of ternary organic mixtures, which led to the decrease of experimental LFL values and thus corresponding increased of their explosive risk. This study would be expected to provide some guidance for designing or choosing safer and more suitable ternary organic mixtures prior to their applications for engineering.     

考虑群组行为的楼梯瓶颈处行人流模拟

为探究楼梯瓶颈处群组行为对行人流通行效率的影响,基于校园内的观测试验获取群组运动参数,采用Anylogic仿真平台建立考虑群组行为特征的楼梯瓶颈处人员运动模型,根据不同的群组运动参数、楼梯几何参数和障碍物布置方式对行人流通行时间与密度分布的影响开展数值模拟。结果表明:较大的群组比例和群组规模均会延长行人流通行时间,增加通行过程中的拥堵持续时间;在链状构型下,群组通行效率较高,而并排构型对人员通行造成的负面影响最大;在有群组和无群组情况下,楼梯位置变化会产生相反的通行效果;平行放置障碍物可以有效降低人群密度,提高群组行人流的通行效率。     

不同推进速度下煤岩体采动力学行为响应特征与控制

为获得不同推进速度下煤岩体的采动力学行为特征,通过轴压和围压分别模拟不同推进速度下垂直应力、水平应力,采用增轴压降围压的方式模拟煤岩体的采动力学行为,同时采用数值模拟和工程实践相结合的方法对不同推进速度下煤岩体的采动力学行为进行研究。结果表明:在围压卸载速率相同的条件下,随着轴压加载速率（推进速度）的增加,煤体的峰值强度、轴向应变和横向应变呈增大趋势,在峰值阶段产生了较大的轴向应变和横向应变,呈现出一定的延性,破坏形式具有塑性特征;在轴向加载和围压卸载的综合作用下,煤体体积一直处于膨胀变形状态,围压的卸载加速了煤体损伤破坏的进程,煤体破坏时的峰值应力和体积扩容受控于围压卸载的程度,控制轴压加载速率和围压卸载程度可控制煤体破坏时的峰值应力和体积变形。生产实践中,应结合煤岩体的采动力学行为特征,确定合理的推进速度并加以控制,以保证回采巷道与采场围岩的稳定性。     

Increasing the safety of children's vehicle travel: from effective risk communication to behavior change

INTRODUCTION: When installed and used correctly, child safety seats reduce the risk of fatal injury by 71% for infants and 54% for toddlers. However, four out of five safety seats are unintentionally misused. Yet, parents fail to participate in safety-seat checks and other child seat interventions aimed at correcting misuse. METHOD: Such lack of participation is the focus of this article, which argues that most caregivers are na?ve to their own vulnerability for misusing their child's seat. Research on risk perception is discussed as a guide to understanding both the high misuse rate and the lack of participation in interventions designed to correct this public safety problem. RESULTS AND IMPACT: A comprehensive intervention plan that incorporates risk communication techniques for maximum parental participation is proposed that includes three essential components: (a) establishing community locations for parents to turn for safety seat advice, (b) making these locations well known to the public, and (c) increasing caregivers' perceptions of risk of misusing their children's seats.     

E-bikers’ braking behavior: Results from a naturalistic cycling study

Abstract

Objective: The number of e-bike users has increased significantly over the past few years and with it the associated safety concerns. Because e-bikes are faster than conventional bicycles and more prone to be in conflict with road users, e-bikers may need to perform avoidance maneuvers more frequently. Braking is the most common avoidance maneuver but is also a complex and critical task in emergency situations, because cyclists must reduce speed quickly without losing balance. The aim of this study is to understand the braking strategies of e-bikers in real-world traffic environments and to assess their road safety implications. This article investigates (1) how cyclists on e-bikes use front and rear brakes during routine cycling and (2) whether this behavior changes during unexpected conflicts with other road users.

Methods: Naturalistic data were collected from 6 regular bicycle riders who each rode e-bikes during a period of 2 weeks, for a total of 32.5?h of data. Braking events were identified and characterized through a combined analysis of brake pressure at each wheel, velocity, and longitudinal acceleration. Furthermore, the braking patterns obtained during unexpected events were compared with braking patterns during routine cycling.

Results: In the majority of braking events during routine cycling, cyclists used only one brake at a time, favoring one of the 2 brakes according to a personal pre-established pattern. However, the favored brake varied among cyclists: 66% favored the rear brake and 16% the front brake. Only 16% of the cyclists showed no clear preference, variously using rear brake, front brake, or combined braking (both brakes at the same time), suggesting that the selection of which brake to use depended on the characteristics of the specific scenario experienced by the cyclist rather than on a personal preference. In unexpected conflicts, generally requiring a larger deceleration, combined braking became more prevalent for most of the cyclists; still, when combined braking was not applied, cyclists continued to use the favored brake of routine cycling. Kinematic analysis revealed that, when larger decelerations were required, cyclists more frequently used combined braking instead of single braking.

Conclusions: The results provide new insights into the behavior of cyclists on e-bikes and may provide support in the development of safety measures including guidelines and best practices for optimal brake use. The results may also inform the design of braking systems intended to reduce the complexity of the braking operation.     

Overview of motorcycling in the United States: a national telephone survey

Objectives

Motorcycle registrations have risen in recent years. Although motorcyclist crash fatalities in 2009 were 16% lower than in 2008, they were double the number of deaths in 1997. The present study examined current motorcyclists’ travel patterns and views of motorcycle helmets and other safety topics.

Methods

Motorcycle drivers were interviewed in a national telephone survey conducted in 2009. A weighted sample of 1,606 motorcyclists resulted from adjusting for the oversampling of those younger than 40 and those in the three states without a motorcycle helmet use law (Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire). All analyses were based on the weighted sample, which was intended to result in a nationally representative sample of motorcyclists.

Results

About one-quarter of respondents said they did not always wear helmets. Of these respondents, 57% said a law requiring helmet use would persuade them to do so, and 27% said nothing would. Ninety-four percent of respondents in states with universal helmet laws said they always ride helmeted, compared with about half of respondents in other states. About half of all respondents favored these laws. About three-quarters said they believe helmets keep riders safer, including two-thirds of respondents who oppose universal laws and almost half of drivers who rarely/never wear helmets. Drivers ages 18–29 and drivers of sport/unclad sport, sport touring, and super sport motorcycles were more likely to always wear helmets, support universal helmet laws, and believe helmets keep riders safer. About half of respondents said antilock braking systems (ABS) enhance safety and that they would get ABS on their next motorcycle. Less than one-quarter thought an airbag would protect a motorcyclist in a crash, and even fewer would consider getting one on their next motorcycle. Forty-three percent of motorcyclists said they had crashed at least once; 62% of the most recent crashes involved no vehicles besides the motorcycle. Respondents reported riding their motorcycles about 5,400 miles, on average, during the past year. Drivers ages 18–29 reported riding fewer miles, on average, than older drivers and more often rode at night and to/from work or school. Drivers of touring and sport touring motorcycles traveled more miles and took more long trips.

Conclusions

Motorcyclists’ travel patterns and views vary widely, but there are distinct patterns by driver age and motorcycle type. Drivers who believe helmets keep riders safer are more likely to always wear them, but this belief appears insufficient to motivate some drivers to wear them. However, universal helmet laws appear effective in increasing helmet use. Many drivers are receptive to purchasing ABS on their next motorcycle.

Impact on industry

States should be encouraged to enact universal helmet laws, and motorcycle manufacturers should be encouraged to offer ABS.     

小群体行为作用下的地铁站疏散模型研究

为研究小群体行为作用对地铁站突发事件人群疏散效率的影响,基于社会力模型理论和智能体技术,构建地铁站人群疏散模型。分析小群体趋向性、协调一致性等行为特征,运用社会力模型理论,计算小群体成员移动速度;量化小群体行为对群体内部成员作用大小,修正成员期望速度,确定人群疏散速度;以某地铁站火灾事故为例,分别模拟单人疏散场景和混合疏散场景。研究结果表明:混合疏散场景仿真时间比单人疏散场景仿真时间延长12.29%,平均绕行距离比单人疏散增加38.8%,小群体行为降低了地铁站突发事件人群疏散效率。     

足球比赛结果与预期差异较大时观众疏散行为调查研究

基于比赛结果与预期差异较大的假设,对足球比赛现场观众进行问卷调查,考察观众对比赛结果很满意和很失望两种情形下,观众的情绪、应对疏散指挥的态度、赛后现场滞留的倾向、与他人发生冲突和破坏现场公共物品等与疏散相关的心理和行为,以及上述心理和行为与观众性别和年龄的关联性。结果表明足球比赛结果会影响观众疏散心理和行为,且这种影响还会因性别和年龄的差异而有所不同。调查初步分析了我国足球比赛观众疏散心理和行为特点,可以为比赛的组织和管理提供决策参考,为疏散仿真研究提供基础数据。     

A spectral power analysis of driving behavior changes during the transition from nondistraction to distraction

Objective: This article investigated and compared frequency domain and time domain characteristics of drivers' behaviors before and after the start of distracted driving.

Method: Data from an existing naturalistic driving study were used. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) was applied for the frequency domain analysis to explore drivers' behavior pattern changes between nondistracted (prestarting of visual–manual task) and distracted (poststarting of visual–manual task) driving periods. Average relative spectral power in a low frequency range (0–0.5 Hz) and the standard deviation in a 10-s time window of vehicle control variables (i.e., lane offset, yaw rate, and acceleration) were calculated and further compared. Sensitivity analyses were also applied to examine the reliability of the time and frequency domain analyses.

Results: Results of the mixed model analyses from the time and frequency domain analyses all showed significant degradation in lateral control performance after engaging in visual–manual tasks while driving. Results of the sensitivity analyses suggested that the frequency domain analysis was less sensitive to the frequency bandwidth, whereas the time domain analysis was more sensitive to the time intervals selected for variation calculations. Different time interval selections can result in significantly different standard deviation values, whereas average spectral power analysis on yaw rate in both low and high frequency bandwidths showed consistent results, that higher variation values were observed during distracted driving when compared to nondistracted driving.

Conclusions: This study suggests that driver state detection needs to consider the behavior changes during the prestarting periods, instead of only focusing on periods with physical presence of distraction, such as cell phone use. Lateral control measures can be a better indicator of distraction detection than longitudinal controls. In addition, frequency domain analyses proved to be a more robust and consistent method in assessing driving performance compared to time domain analyses.     

行为传播视角下群体压力对矿工不安全行为意向的影响*

为探究不安全行为在煤矿企业班组之间的传播机制,建立矿工的群体压力、道德推脱、道德氛围与矿工不安全行为意向之间的假设模型。以252名一线班组矿工为研究对象,基于结构方程模型分析道德推脱的中介效应和道德氛围的调节效应,对行为传播视角下的群体压力对矿工不安全行为意向的影响展开研究。研究结果表明:群体压力与矿工不安全行为意向正相关;群体压力与矿工道德推脱水平正相关;道德推脱在群体压力与不安全行为意向之间起中介作用;工具型道德氛围在群体压力与道德推脱之间起调节作用;规则型道德氛围在群体压力与矿工不安全行为意向之间起调节作用。研究结果可为煤矿企业降低矿工的不安全行为意向提供1种可借鉴的理论依据和管理方法。     

Pedestrian behavior and exit selection in evacuation of a corridor - An experimental study

In this paper, we present an experiment whose purpose was to study evacuees’ exit selection under different behavioral objectives. The experiment was conducted in a corridor with two exits located asymmetrically. This geometry was used to make most participants face a nontrivial decision on which exit to use. We analyze the behavior on a macroscopic level using statistical methods. Our results suggest that the members of an evacuating crowd may not be able to make optimal decisions when assessing the fastest exit to evacuate. In addition, the egress time of the whole crowd turns out to be shorter when the evacuees behave egoistically instead of behaving cooperatively. This is an interesting result because many studies on real emergencies show that evacuees tend to cooperate and act altruistically.     

The theory of planned behavior as mediator of the effect of parental supervision: a study of intentions to violate driving rules in a representative sample of adolescents

INTRODUCTION: The study reported here was designed to test the ability of the theory of planned behavior to mediate the effect of parental supervision on adolescents' intentions to violate driving rules. METHOD: A representative sample of 1,654 adolescents completed questionnaires during individual and anonymous interviews carried out at their schools. RESULTS: Results showed that age, gender, prior risky driving-behavior, and parental supervision significantly predict intentions to violate driving rules. Attitude and the subjective norm partially mediate the effect of age, prior behavior, and parental supervision. Perceived behavioral control does not predict intention and is not predicted by other variables. IMPACT: The results suggest that social cognitive variables partially mediate the effect of parenting practices such as supervision.     

基于实车驾驶试验的螺旋匝道小客车纵向驾驶行为研究

为明确螺旋匝道(螺旋桥)驾驶操纵行为及车辆状态特征,选取2条桥头立交螺旋匝道和2座螺旋桥,开展小客车实车路试,通过连续采集行驶速度、加速度、踏板力等驾驶数据,分析螺旋匝道(桥)及前后衔接段的纵向驾驶行为特性.结果表明:行驶速度在螺旋匝道范围内基本恒定,并明显高于设计速度,螺旋匝道段的速度分布比主线段更集中,螺旋匝道对驾...     

基于火灾监控视频的人员疏散行为统计分析

火灾中人员的疏散行为是一个极为复杂的过程,受到众多外界刺激的干扰。通过对某真实火灾监控视频中人员疏散行为的统计分析,还原了火灾现场部分人员从发现火灾、观望等待、准备撤离到安全疏散全过程的心理状态,以及疏散过程中典型外界刺激对人员疏散心理状态的改变,提出火灾中听觉刺激对人员产生的心理冲击最为强烈,直接影响了人员疏散行为的实施。疏散过程中样本人群还表现出典型的羊群效应。