1994／1995全球重大自然灾害的统计分析

１９９４／１９９５年是６０年代以来全球自然灾害经济损失最大的两年。作者根据收集到的信息，对全球这两年的重大自然灾害的分布及灾情作了统计。结果表明，９０年代全球重大自然灾害的经济和保险损失存在上升趋势。最后，对其成因进行了分析     

The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism

Abstract

This study quantifies the spatial relationship between the global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Using recently compiled databases of population and Holocene volcanoes, we estimate that almost 9% (455 × 10⁶ people) of the world's 1990 population lived within 100km of an historically active volcano and 12% within 100km of a volcano believed to have been active during the last 10,000 years. The analysis also indicates that average population density generally decreases with distance from these volcanoes (within 200 km). In tropical areas, the elevation and fertile soils associated with volcanic regions can provide incentives for agrarian populations to settle close to potentially active volcanoes. In Southeast Asia and Central America higher population densities lie in closer proximity to volcanoes than in other volcanic regions. In Japan and Chile, population density tends to increase with distance from volcanoes. The current trends of rapid urbanization and sustained population growth in tropical developing countries, combined with agricultural intensification of fertile volcanic terrains could alter the relationship between humans and volcanoes so as to increase both local and global consequences of volcanic eruptions in the future.     

Present and future economic impacts of climate extremes in the United States

Recent studies have yielded definitive information about the nation's economic impacts from extreme climates, although some sectoral values rely on educated estimates since hard data does not exist. Review of existing measures of the national impacts from weather—climate conditions reveals annual average losses of $36 billion from extremes and gains averaging $26 billion when conditions are favorable (good growing seasons, mild winters, etc.). Comparison of these values with various measures of the national economy reveals that the impacts are relatively small, typically about 1% of the Gross Domestic Product and less than 2% of the federal budget. The current impact information provides a basis for assessing various estimates of the nation's financial impacts resulting from a future climate change due to global warming. Most such estimates predict values similar to the magnitude of current climate impacts. Moreover, most economists attempting such estimates express a large degree of uncertainty about their projections.     

云南地区地震灾害损失的基本特征

云南是我国地震灾害损失最为严重的地区之一。地震灾害损失评估标准实施以来，云南地区积累了较丰富的地震灾害损失评估资料。以1992～2001年云南地区破坏性地震的灾害损失评估资料为基础，分析了地震灾害损失随时间的变化特征，初步探讨了地震震级与受灾人口、人员伤亡和地震灾害经济损失等方面的关系。结果表明：(1)随着社会经济的不断发展和社会财富的不断积累，等同地震能量所造成的经济损失呈逐渐增大的趋势；(2)在空间上，由于各灾区的经济发展状况不同，等同地震能量所造成的灾害损失存在着地区差异性；(3)地震灾害损失随震级增大而增大，但二者之间并非简单的线性关系，其中生命线工程及其它特殊工程结构、重大工程设施、大型企业等的经济损失随震级的增大而以更大的比例增大。     

20世纪下半叶新疆洪水灾害的新趋向

受全球气候变暖和当地人类活动加剧的影响,20世纪下半叶以来,尤其80年代以来新疆洪灾在时空分布上,发生了比较明显的变化,呈现出一些新的趋向.这些新趋向突出表现在:与前30年(1950-1979年)相比,洪灾农田受灾面积增大、发生次数增多、直接经济损失明显上升以及洪灾多发区向北疆西部和天山南北麓集中.     

基于灰色理论的黑龙江省暴雨洪涝特征分析及灾变预测

基于灰色理论和气象灾害普查资料对黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害时空分布特征进行了分析并进行了灾变预测。黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害主要发生在5-9月,其中7月损失最大;1990年以来暴雨次数虽然有所减少,但暴雨洪涝造成的损失却明显增加;黑龙江省暴雨洪涝灾害可划分为严重洪涝区、重洪涝区、中洪涝区和轻洪涝区,严重洪涝区位于松花江及其支流沿岸的大庆市、伊春市、齐齐哈尔市、佳木斯市和哈尔滨市。根据灰色灾变预测理论预测2013年出现严重暴雨洪涝灾害(全省农作物受灾面积≥500 000 hm2、可比经济损失≥50 000万元)的可能性最大,其次是2016年。     

基于验证性因素分析的台风风暴潮灾害经济损失影响因子优化分析

建立客观有效的指标体系是精准估算台风风暴潮灾害经济损失的途径之一。本文以广东省为案例研究区,用验证性因素分析方法对影响灾害经济损失的危险性、脆弱性、抗灾能力3类风险要素进行指标甄别遴选,并将研究区按照经济发展条件分为3个时段,分别分析不同时段内各个风险要素指标的变化。研究表明,对于不同时段,各风险要素的影响指标变化不大,但与风险要素的关联程度会有差异。与传统的指标体系构建相比,本文结合历史案例构建备选指标更具有事实依据,并且利用验证性因素分析方法进行指标遴选,排除了人为主观因素的干扰,增强了指标与研究对象的关联度,减少了指标冗余,使得结果更具有合理性、科学性,为指标体系的研究提供了一个新的思路。     

中国未来10～15年地震灾害的风险评估

中国是世界上地震灾害损失最严重的国家之一，全国５０％以上的城市和７０％左右的大中城市位于７度及以上烈度区内．地震的发生给中国社会带来了很大的危害和损失，主要的损失分布在以北京为中心的首都圈地区和云南－四川－陕西－内蒙古相连的南北带上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震损失较大的地区．所谓地震灾害风险是指建立在各地防震减灾能力基础上的未来地震损失估汁，风险的特征是具有一定的不确定性．从中国的实际情况来看，东部沿海地区、首都圈地区及内陆的个别地区防震减灾能力较强，而未来地震危险性则以中国西部地区和华北地区为主．通过对中国未来１０—１５年地震风险的研究，可以认为，中国的东部地区虽然有一定的地震危险性，但由于其经济发达，减灾能力很强，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险较小；中国的中部（南北带）和西部地区地震危险性很大，同时经济欠发达，减灾能力较差，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险很大．     

土石坝溃决机理模型试验研究进展

大坝溃决将给人类社会带来巨大的灾难,因此国内外都很关注溃坝问题的研究。由于多数大坝均为土石坝,且土石坝是逐渐溃决的过程,而混凝土坝一般表现为瞬时溃决,因此土石坝溃决机理与溃决过程的研究对于溃坝过程数学模型的建立和致灾后果的评价具有重要的指导意义。自20世纪90年代以来,国内外学者围绕土石坝溃决机理开展了广泛深入的模型试验研究,取得了一系列重要的研究成果。分别从土石坝溃决原因、土石坝溃决机理研究进展、土石坝漫顶溃决模型试验、土石坝管涌溃决模型试验等方面介绍国内外的研究进展。重点针对土石坝坝型(均质坝、黏性心墙坝、面板堆石坝)和主要破坏模式(漫顶溃坝与管涌溃坝),介绍国内外开展的不同尺度的溃坝模型试验,分析研究了土石坝的溃决机理,并对今后的研究工作重点提出了相关建议。     

地震对策在天津市减灾中的作用：兼论增产与减损关系

本文通过大量的事实和数据,依据政治经济学原理,阐述了地震灾害在天津市发展和建设中带来的巨大损失;指出:城市发展必须兼颐增产与减损两个方面,以确保投资的有效性。     

地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型

本文提出了一个地震灾害预测的动态分析模型。这个模型基于概率理论基础,考虑了一个城市因建设的发展,新房屋日益增多,部分旧房屋被淘汰,对城市抗震能力引起的变化;和由于经济的发展,社会财富的增加,对地震损失的影响。为解决这—问题,文中提出了动态震害矩阵和动态损失矩阵的求解方法。根据这一方法可以预测未来不同年代的地震经济损失。     

农业旱灾中人为因素的定量分析 --以秀山县为例

以重庆秀山县为研究对象。对建国后50年中各年代人为因素对农业旱灾的作用进行了比较，探讨了其成因及变化趋势。研究表明，在20世纪50年代和60年代，秀山县由于生态破坏、水利设施不足和不合理的政策导向等，人为因素起着加剧旱灾灾情的作用，而在70年代至90年代。由于农业基础设施投入的加大、抗旱政策的制定等，人为因素开始起着越来越强的缓解灾情的作用。     

建筑物地震损失估计方法对比分析

合理而准确地确定建筑物的地震损失是当今防震减灾研究的一个主要课题,也是地震保险费率厘定的前提.目前,我国已经在地震发生概率、场地类型、结构性能、财产分布等方面积累了许多震害统计资料.同时,不断应用地震学、抗震工程学和计算方法方面新的研究成果于地震损失的计算,形成了几种常见的损失估计思路和方法.这其中主要包括传统的地震灾害损失风险评估方法、基于动力可靠度的损失分析方法和基于结构性能的损失确定方法.从合理性和适用性的角度,对这3种方法进行了评述和比较,以此看出各种方法的优点和局限性以及分析思路的发展演变过程,并希望从中能够看出今后研究工作的一些方向.     

The socioeconomic effects of a landslide in Western Washington

Abstract

Landslides can create permanently unstable sites that cannot be repaired or developed, and as a result, can cause severe economic and social consequences for families and communities. This study examines the economic and social effects of a landslide that struck Western Washington in February 1999. Two years after the landslide, property owners completed a confidential questionnaire. Property owners experienced significant personal financial losses and received little financial assistance to recover. Most (93%) did not receive any relief from their insurance policies, and 7% received only temporary rental assistance. Participants reported a variety of monetary and personal losses that were associated with emotional distress. They also reported a variety of gains and new perspectives on life. In this paper, we consider mechanisms to reduce the economic losses of landslides as well as implications and future research directions.     

Snowstorm catastrophes in the United States

Extremely damaging snowstorms, those causing more than $1 million in property losses across the US, were studied, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the storm activity during 1949–2001 were defined. There were 155 catastrophic snowstorms and they caused insured losses of $21.6 billion (2001 dollars). The northeastern US had the nation's maximum storm occurrences (79 storms), greatest total losses ($7.3 billion), and highest storm intensity. Two-thirds of all US losses occurred in the Northeast, Southeast, and Central climate regions, and storm occurrences and losses were least in the western US. The incidence of storms peaked during the 1976–1985 period and exhibited no up or down trend during 1949–2001. However, losses had a significant upward time trend, as did storm sizes and intensity. New York and Pennsylvania had the greatest number of storms with fewest in Montana, Idaho, and Utah. Time distribution of losses in the northeastern and southeastern US were U-shaped with flat time trends for 1949–2001. Losses in the western regions and Deep South had distinct upward trends in losses, storm intensity, and storm size. More than 90 percent of all storm losses in the western US have occurred since 1980. These findings indicate that rapidly growing population and property at risk have been major factors in increasing losses as well as atmospheric changes leading to greater storm intensity and size.     

Flood management in Canada at the crossroads

Abstract

Although Canadian flood management efforts have gained worldwide recognition, flood damages continue to increase. The current practice for preventing, responding to and recovering from floods in Canada is described by focusing attention on the 1997 Red River and 1996 Saguenay River floods. A set of cultures is identified that contribute to the trend of increasing flood damages. These include a culture of conflict, a culture of land development, a culture that impeded native people from easily implementing flood management programs, a culture of institutional fragmentation and a culture of dependency. These foster an inevitable cycle of increasing flood damages. The potential of recent proposals made by Emergency Preparedness Canada and the Insurance Bureau of Canada to address these cultures is assessed. While these documents represent significant progress, they continue to adopt an intermittent project rather an ongoing program perspective, fail to identify the need to adopt specific initiatives tailored for aboriginal communities, and ignore the need to enhance the operational capacity of relevant public and private participants. Addressing these requirements will further reduce future losses and vulnerability.     

Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

Focusing on three of the largest coastal cities in the Republic of Ireland, this paper highlights the importance of a historical analysis of flood hazards in contextualising current events and potential future risks. Over the last decade, the cities of Dublin, Cork and Galway have experienced several major coastal, river and pluvial floods. In the aftermath of these floods, two distinct but related narratives have dominated public discourse and official responses. The first narrative presents recent floods as unprecedented and as possible evidence of climate change. The second constructs floods primarily as natural events and assumes that the optimal means of reducing flood losses is to prevent flood events. In this paper, I suggest that these narratives are not supported by a historical analysis of exposure and vulnerability to flood hazards in Irish cities. This paper draws primarily on newspaper archives to construct a record of past flooding that challenges these narratives in several ways and in doing so offers lessons for similar cities in other countries. I contend that these narratives are perpetuated by a narrow form of knowledge production (quantitative risk assessment) and a narrow range of data (numeric instrumental records). Incorporating a broader range of sources and data types into risk and vulnerability assessments may illuminate more creative strategies for reducing both contemporary and future flood losses.     

The future of disaster risk management

The present perspective summarizes and projects the results of a two-day workshop held in 2013 with the presence of 21 known disaster risk specialists from academia and practice. Faced with the disconnect between ever-increasing and even-accelerating disaster losses and the declared progress in disaster risk management (DRM) practice over the last eight years, the document attempts to explain the current situation and project future needs in order to increase the saliency and effect of DRM. A review of current conceptual problems and their impact on knowledge and action, of the current role of DRM in society, of governance aspects and of the notion of transformative development and its relationship to DRM is provided. The critique of current practice and understanding of disaster risk then leads to an attempt to identify key needs for the future and changes that must be introduced in order for DRM to become more mainstream and effective. Among the more central concerns, the document points to the way in which disasters are still many times seen as exogenous happenings as opposed to social constructions, product of skewed development practices. This then is reflected in much governance practice and action that are flawed. The difficulty in moving from a reactive and corrective DRM practice to a more prospective, risk avoidance practice is also highlighted.     

20世纪90年代以来主要气象灾害对我国粮食生产的影响与减灾对策

干旱、洪涝、风雹和低温四大类主要气象灾害已经成为限制我国粮食增产的主要障碍。近5年的统计结果表明，我国平均每年粮食受灾面积达0．52亿hm^2，粮食损失超过500亿kg。干旱是危害最大的灾种，每年因旱灾损失粮食占气象灾害损失粮食的57％。20世纪90年代以来旱灾的发生较以往大幅度加重。我国农业应该采取的减灾对策为：改善生态环境；加强农业基础设施建设；推广节水灌溉与旱作农业技术；加强农业减灾科学技术研究；完善农业防灾减灾体系；建立农业灾害保险与补贴机制。     

上海地区热带气旋灾情的评估和灾年预测

本文用数理统计方法，计算了１９４９￣１９９０年影响上海地区的热带气旋造成的人员伤亡、农田受淹、房屋倒损三方面的灾情指数。在此基础上划分了灾情等级，最后用灰色预测模型预测出在１９９７年上海将会发生一次中等（含３级）以上热带气旋灾情。