Absence behavior as traffic crash predictor in bus drivers

Problem

Various indicators of health have been shown to be associated with traffic crash involvement. As general health is also related to absence from work, the latter variable may be more strongly related to crashes, especially for professional drivers.

Method

Bus driver absence from work was analyzed in association with their crash records. Two British samples and one Swedish sample were used.

Results

One of the British samples yielded fair correlations between crash record and absence, while for the other the effect was restricted to the first three months of driving. The Swedish data had effects in the expected direction but these were not significant.

Discussion

The use of an indirect, overall measurement of health, may be a viable method for predicting the traffic crash involvement for professional drivers, although replications are needed in larger samples and other populations.

Impact on industry

The use of absence records for the identification of at risk drivers would seem to be a simple and useful method for companies with major fleets, and it also shows the importance of promoting employee health and well being at work as a potential method of reducing the cost, not only of absenteeism, but also of crashes in company vehicles.     

Virtual street-crossing performance in persons with multiple sclerosis: Feasibility and task performance characteristics

Objectives: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurological disease that commonly results in physical and cognitive dysfunction. Accordingly, MS might impact the ability to safely cross the street. The purpose of this study was to examine the feasibility of a simulated street-crossing task in persons with MS and to determine differences in street-crossing performance between persons with MS and non-MS controls.

Methods: 26 participants with MS (median Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score = 3.5) and 19 controls completed 40 trials of a virtual street-crossing task. There were 2 crossing conditions (i.e., no distraction and phone conversation), and participants performed 20 trials per condition. Participants were instructed that the goal of the task was to cross the street successfully (i.e., without being hit be a vehicle). The primary outcome was task feasibility, assessed as completion and adverse events. Secondary outcomes were measures of street-crossing performance.

Results: Overall, the simulated street-crossing task was feasible (i.e., 90% completion, no adverse events) in participants with MS. Participants with MS waited longer and were less attentive to traffic before entering the street compared with controls (all P < .05). Participants with MS also took longer to cross the street and were closer to oncoming vehicles when exiting the street compared to controls (all P < .05). When distracted, all participants took longer to initiate crossing, took longer to cross the street, and made more head turns while crossing (all P < .05). There were no significant group by condition interaction effects (all P > .05).

Conclusions: A virtual street-crossing task is feasible for studying street-crossing behavior in persons with mild MS and most individuals with moderate MS. Virtual street-crossing performance is impaired in persons with MS compared to controls; however, persons with MS do not appear to be more vulnerable to a distracting condition. The virtual reality environment presents a safe and useful setting for understanding pedestrian behavior in persons with MS.     

Estimated benefit of automated emergency braking systems for vehicle–pedestrian crashes in the United States

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this research study is to estimate the benefit to pedestrians if all U.S. cars, light trucks, and vans were equipped with an automated braking system that had pedestrian detection capabilities.

Methods: A theoretical automatic emergency braking (AEB) model was applied to real-world vehicle–pedestrian collisions from the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS). A series of potential AEB systems were modeled across the spectrum of expected system designs. Both road surface conditions and pedestrian visibility were accounted for in the model. The impact speeds of a vehicle without AEB were compared to the estimated impact speeds of vehicles with a modeled pedestrian detecting AEB system. These impacts speeds were used in conjunction with an injury and fatality model to determine risk of Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale of 3 or higher (MAIS 3+) injury and fatality.

Results: AEB systems with pedestrian detection capability, across the spectrum of expected design parameters, reduced fatality risk when compared to human drivers. The most beneficial system (time-to-collision [TTC]?=?1.5?s, latency = 0?s) decreased fatality risk in the target population between 84 and 87% and injury risk (MAIS score 3+) between 83 and 87%.

Conclusions: Though not all crashes could be avoided, AEB significantly mitigated risk to pedestrians. The longer the TTC of braking and the shorter the latency value, the higher benefits showed by the AEB system. All AEB models used in this study were estimated to reduce fatalities and injuries and were more effective when combined with driver braking.     

Safety effectiveness and crash cost benefit of red light cameras in Missouri

Objective: Red light cameras (RLCs) have generated heated discussions over issues of safety effectiveness, revenue generation, and procedural due process. This study focuses on the safety evaluation of RLCs in Missouri, including the economic valuation of safety benefits. The publication of the national Highway Safety Manual (HSM; American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) in 2010 produced statistical safety models for intersections and spurred the calibration of these models to local conditions.

Methods: This study adds to existing knowledge by applying the latest statistical methodology presented in the HSM and more current data. Driver behavior constantly changes due in part to driving conditions and the use of technology. The safety and economic benefit evaluation was performed using the empirical Bayes method, which accounts for regression to the mean bias. For the economic benefit evaluation, the KABCO crash severity scale and crash cost estimates were used. A total of 24 4-leg urban intersections were randomly selected from a master list of RLCs in Missouri from 2006 to 2011. Additionally, 35 comparable nontreated intersections were selected for the analysis.

Results and Conclusions: The implementation of RLCs reduced overall angle crashes by 11.6%, whereas rear-end crashes increased by 16.5%. The net economic crash cost benefit of the implementation of RLCs was $35,269 per site per year in 2001 dollars (approximately $47,000 in 2015 dollars). Thus, RLCs produced a sizable net positive safety benefit that is consistent with previous statistical studies.     

信号控制交叉口行人过街等待时间研究

为保护行人过街时的安全及减少行人违章行为,通过分析行人过街的等待规律,构建了信号控制行人过街等待的生存分析方法.对上海市典型交叉口的行人过街等待行为的观测及分析,得到了行人等待的生存曲线,建立了行人违章危险度随行人自身及环境因素影响的COX风险回归模型.结果表明:行人在路边等待过街最大可忍受等待时间为90 S,在中间安全岛的最大可忍受等待时间仅为50 S;行人等待时间与行人年龄、红灯时间、穿越车道教、冲突方向车流量、是否二次过街相关,与行人性别无关;合理的交叉口设计和信号控制能提高行人的遵章率、降低违章危险度.笔者建议:信号控制交叉口行人红灯时间不超过90 s,行人在安全岛最大等待时间不超过50 S.     

复合材料发动机罩的行人头部保护研究

为研究聚丙烯复合材料发动机罩的行人保护性能,应用ANSA软件建立发动机罩和行人头部冲击器的有限元模型;参照欧盟EC 78/2009行人保护法规要求,选取碰撞危险点;应用 LS-DYNA 有限元分析软件研究相同结构下聚丙烯复合材料发动机罩和钢制发动机罩的行人保护能力以及静态刚度,比较不同配比材料发动机罩的吸能特性和头部碰撞损伤的相关加速度值,并针对铰链处进行结构优化设计。研究表明:所设计的新的聚丙烯复合材料发动机罩在保证刚度的条件下,有明显减重效果,并在头部碰撞区域对行人头部有较好保护效果。     

Case-control study of risk factors for fatal and non-fatal injury in crashes of rotary-wing aircraft

INTRODUCTION: There have been few studies of the risk factors for fatal injury in air crashes of rotary-wing aircraft, and none of risk factors for all serious injury (fatal and non-fatal) in these aircraft. The aim of the study was to identify the potentially modifiable risk factors for injury in civil rotary-wing aircraft crashes in New Zealand. METHOD: We analyzed records from all reported civil rotary-wing aircraft crashes in New Zealand between 1988 and 1994. Air crash data from the official databases were merged with nationwide injury records and information obtained from Coroner's files. Crashes where the pilot-in-command was fatally injured were compared with crashes where the pilot-in-command was not fatally injured on 50 variables, covering pilot, aircraft, environmental, and operational characteristics. A second analysis compared crashes where the pilot-in-command was seriously injured (either fatally or non-fatally) with crashes where the pilot-in-command was not hospitalized with an injury. A series of multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate the odds associated with each of the factors identified by the univariate analyses. RESULTS: The most significant risk factors for all serious injury were: (a) not obtaining a weather briefing, (b) off-airport location of the crash site, (c) flights carried out for air transport purposes, and (d) non-solo flights. Other risk factors, significant for fatal injury only, included post-crash fire and the nature of the crash terrain. Factors within the control of the pilot, environmental, and flight characteristics are the key determinants of the injury outcome of civil rotary-wing aircraft crashes.     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

Safety in shipping: the human element

INTRODUCTION: There are numerous diverse papers that have addressed issues within maritime safety; to date there has been no comprehensive review of this literature to aggregate the causal factors within accidents in shipping and surmise current knowledge. METHODS: This paper reviewed the literature on safety in three key areas: common themes of accidents, the influence of human error, and interventions to make shipping safer. The review included 20 studies of seafaring across the following areas: fatigue, stress, health, situation awareness, teamwork, decision-making, communication, automation, and safety culture. RESULTS: The review identifies the relative contributions of individual and organizational factors in shipping accidents, and also presents the methodological issues with previous research. CONCLUSIONS: The paper concludes that monitoring and modifying the human factors issues presented in this paper could contribute to maritime safety performance. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This review illustrates which human factors issues are prevalent in incidents therefore this gives shipping practitioners a focus for interventions.     

Crashes of novice teenage drivers: characteristics and contributing factors

OBJECTIVE: The initial months of licensure are especially hazardous for teenagers. Factors leading to crashes of novice 16-year-old drivers were identified. METHOD: Sixteen year-olds in Connecticut who were involved in nonfatal crashes during the first 8 months of licensure were interviewed, and police crash reports were examined. Crash types and contributing factors were identified. RESULTS: Three-fourths of the crash-involved teenagers were at fault. Their crashes resulted primarily when they ran off the road, rear ended another vehicle, or collided with another vehicle that had the right-of-way. Three factors contributed about equally to their crashes: failing to detect another vehicle or traffic control, speeding, and losing control of the vehicle or sliding. Slippery roads also were an important factor. Most failures to detect another vehicle or traffic control involved not looking thoroughly, distraction, or inattention. DISCUSSION: Based on the findings, potential countermeasures for reducing crashes of novice teenage drivers include adequate practice driving, in-vehicle monitoring devices, and electronic stability control. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: More than half of the nonfatal, at-fault crashes of newly licensed 16-year-old drivers involved more than one contributing factor including speed, loss of control, and slippery roads. Efforts to reduce teenage crashes should focus on these factors.     

Older Adults at Increased Risk as Pedestrians in Victoria,Australia: An Examination of Crash Characteristics and Injury Outcomes

Objectives: Engaging in active transport modes (especially walking) is a healthy and environmentally friendly alternative to driving and may be particularly beneficial for older adults. However, older adults are a vulnerable group: they are at higher risk of injury compared with younger adults, mainly due to frailty and may be at increased risk of collision due to the effects of age on sensory, cognitive, and motor abilities. Moreover, our population is aging, and there is a trend for the current cohort of older adults to maintain mobility later in life compared with previous cohorts. Though these trends have serious implications for transport policy and safety, little is known about the contributing factors and injury outcomes of pedestrian collision. Further, previous research generally considers the older population as a homogeneous group and rarely considers the increased risks associated with continued ageing.

Method: Collision characteristics and injury outcomes for 2 subgroups of older pedestrians (65–74 years and 75+ years) were examined by extracting data from the state police–reported crash dataset and hospital admission/emergency department presentation data over the 10-year period between 2003 and 2012. Variables identified for analysis included pedestrian characteristics (age, gender, activity, etc.), crash location and type, injury characteristics and severity, and duration of hospital stay. A spatial analysis of crash locations was also undertaken to identify collision clusters and the contribution of environmental features on collision and injury risk.

Results: Adults over 65 years were involved in 21% of all pedestrian collisions. A high fatality rate was found among older adults, particularly for those aged 75 years and older: this group had 3.2 deaths per 100,000 population, compared to a rate of 1.3 for 65- to 74-year-olds and 0.7 for adults below 65 years of age. Older pedestrian injuries were most likely to occur while crossing the carriageway; they were also more likely to be injured in parking lots, at driveway intersections, and on sidewalks compared to younger cohorts. Spatial analyses revealed older pedestrian crash clusters on arterial roads in urban shopping precincts. Significantly higher rates of hospital admissions were found for pedestrians over the age of 75 years and for abdominal, head, and neck injuries; conversely, older adults were underrepresented in emergency department presentations (mainly lower and upper extremity injuries), suggesting an increased severity associated with older pedestrian injuries. Average length of hospital stay also increased with increasing age.

Conclusion: This analysis revealed age differences in collision risk and injury outcomes among older adults and that aggregate analysis of older pedestrians can distort the significance of risk factors associated with older pedestrian injuries. These findings have implications that extend to the development of engineering, behavioral, and enforcement countermeasures to address the problems faced by the oldest pedestrians and reduce collision risk and improve injury outcomes.     

事故与熵──事故发生可能性计算的新方法

从熵增加的观点描述了事故的本质，剖析了人机系统的实质与特性，提出了风险熵与事故势的概念，给出了计算机风险熵与事故势的方法。结果表明，系统具有二重性。在系统运行期间，系统具有封闭体系的特性；在休整期间，系统具有开放体系的特性。事故是运行系统的必然发展趋势，是运行系统的固有属性，是一种自发过程。由于在系统熵增加的过程中信息及能量的交换，可以把事故定义为系统熵增加的结果。避免事故发生的原理是不断地向系统输入信息或负熵以抵消系统内部的熵增加。