京都议定书能否真正为地球降温?

经过艰苦的谈判，国际环保公约《京都议定书》终于在7年浮浮沉沉的争论声中，于2005年2月16日正式生效了。世界各国人民在争取更安全环境和更清洁空气的道路上，迈出了可喜而坚实的一步。关注全球环境问题的人们似乎可以长长松一口气了。但是，《京都议定书》的生效，是否意味着全球变暖的问题迎刃而解?     

环境公约,还是经济契约

2005年2月16日，签署了旨在遏制全球气候变暖的《京都议定书》的141个国家和地区喜形于色，称赞它是地球的一道“生命防线”。尽管这道犹如地球的生命“平安符”，因不少发达大国的缺席而留下深深的遗憾。但可以肯定的是，这个协议的签署，确实为地球的健康加了一道长寿的“保命符”——虽然这道“符”要发挥奇效，还须世界各国能顶住接踵而来的经济和发展调整过程中的短期不适应，以及可能出现的短期经济压力。     

《京都议定书》遭遇美国"变脸"

全球气候变暖是一个老问题,然而最近,由于美国布什政府在《京都议定书》上开倒车,这一问题再次引起人们的关注。     

解读《京都议定书》

就在今天，南极上空的臭氧空洞还在日益扩大．喜玛拉雅主峰的冰川正在悄悄消融．海平面不断上升已经威胁到太平洋小岛住民的生活现实向世界敲响警钟，告诉我们全球变暖的危害并不遥远。扭转全球变暖趋势，给子孙后代留下来一个可供生存和发展的环境成为世界各国的共识，确定一个规范来约束各国温室气体排放量迫在眉睫。     

《京都议定书》联合执行机制启动

《联合国气候变化框架公约》秘书处2006年10月26日宣布，启动《京都议定书》中确立的“联合国执行机制”，以减少导致全球气候变暖的温室气体的排放。     

世界自然基金会启动 促进京都议定书生效

世界自然基金会 (日本 )的一份最新报告表明 ,全球气候变暖威胁着许多地球上最宝贵的生态区域。该报告首次特别提出了未来数十年内 ,气候变暖对那些具有生物多样性和生态独特性区域的影响 ,而这些区域被誉为自然界“皇冠上的宝石”。该报告调查了 1 1 3个陆地区域 ,发现从热带地区到南北极地 ,很多地区都面临着气候变化带来的危害 ,尤其是下列地区影响尤为明显 :加拿大的北极冻土带 ,阿根廷、玻利维亚和智利三国间干燥的安第斯中部山间高原 ;乌拉尔山、蒙古和俄罗斯间的多伦干旱草原 ,印度东北部的特拉都艾大草原 ,澳大利亚以及南非的芬玻斯…     

京都议定书及其灵活性机制

１全球气候变化与联合国气候变化框架公约在１９９５年１２月发表的政府间气候变化专家委员会（ＩＰＣＣ）第二次评估报告（ＳＡＲ）中，人类对全球气候的影响被确定为无可争辩的事实。据ＩＰＣＣ的结论，自１９世纪后期至今的１００多年中全球近地面气温平均升高了０３...     

气候变暖之害甚于恐怖主义

据英国《观察家》报道,美国政府拒绝在《京都议定书》上签字给全球应对气候变暖的问题变得严峻起来。但气候变暖究竟会对美国产生怎样的影响？难道美国真的不担心这个问题吗？五角大楼最近出炉的一份秘密报告给出了一个惊人答案：今后20年全球气候变暖对人类构成的威胁要胜过恐怖主义。届时,因气候变暖、全球海平面升高,人类赖     

俄罗斯准备在京都议定书上签宇

据外刊报道，最近俄罗斯科学院（RAS）发表了一份有关京都议定书的报告，普京总统还是承诺俄罗斯将批准京都议定书，减少温室气体排放。     

CDM in the Kyoto Negotiations:

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has its origins in the decade of UNFCCC negotiations. ‘Joint implementation’ and ‘activities implemented jointly pilot’ opened the door for the project-based mechanisms between developed and developing countries. The US proposal of the Joint Implementation in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations was almost identical with CDM approved in Kyoto; however, a detour around the Clean Development Fund (CDF) concept raised by Brazil in the negotiations catalyzed the mutual understanding on the win-win nature of the concept of joint implementation.CDM has been played an important role to bridge the developed and developing countries in its development process initiated as the joint implementation in the UNFCCC, and can lead to the cooperative future in the implementation stage starting from the year 2003, including the development of future commitments beyond 2013. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Land-use change in Australia and the Kyoto Protocol

In the dying hours of the Kyoto Climate Change Conference, the negotiators agreed to the insertion of the `Australia clause' in Article 3.7. The clause permits countries for which land-use change and forestry are a net source of greenhouse gas emissions to include net emissions from land-use change in their 1990 base year for the purpose of calculating assigned amounts or targets for the commitment period 2008–2010.This clause applies effectively to Australia alone amongst industrialised (Annex 1) countries, but it may have major implications for the negotiated targets of developing countries.This paper uses the official inventories to describe the comprehensive emissions situation for Australia. In the process it discusses the various methodological and data uncertainties associated with measuring emissions from land-use change.It is shown that emissions from land-use change in the 1990 base year were 89.8 Mt or 18.9% of Australia's total comprehensive emissions. By 1996 this had declined to 62.8 Mt, probably as a result of the falling profitability of land clearing for cattle grazing.The paper then considers the likely path of emissions from land use change through to the commitment period 2008–2012 and how this affects allowable emissions from the energy and other sectors. Two scenarios are described. Scenario 1 assumes that the rate of land clearing does not change from the rate in 1996, while scenario 2 assumes that the Australian Government implements its announced plan to cut land clearing by 20,000 ha/a starting in the year 2000. Under scenario 1, Australia's fossil energy (and other non-land-use) emissions can increase by 20%, while under scenario 2, fossil emissions will be able to increase by 26% by 2008–2010.     

Land-Use Change and Forestry in the Kyoto Protocol

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

GHG emission reductions and costs to achieve Kyoto target

Emission projection and marginal abatement cost curves (MACs) are the central components of any assessment of future carbonmarket, such as CDM (clean development mechanism) potentials, carbon quota price etc. However, they are products of very complex,dynamic systems driven by forces like population growth, economic development, resource endowments, technology progress and so on. The modeling approaches for emission projection and MACs evaluation were summarized, and some major models and their results were compared.Accordingly, reduction and cost requirements to achieve the Kyoto target were estimated. It is concluded that Annex I Parties‘ total reduction requirements range from 503--1304 MtC with USA participation and decrease significantly to 140--612 MtC after USA‘ s withdrawal. Total costs vary from 21--77 BUSD with USA and from 5--36 BUSD without USA if only domestic reduction actions are taken. The costs would sharply reduce while considering the three flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol with domestic actions‘ share in the all mitigation strategies drons to only 0--16%.     

《京都议定书》与温室气体国际减排交易制度

《京都议定书》在对发达国家缔约方温室气体的排放做出了具有法律约束力的定量限制的同时,还确定了帮助发达国家缔约方减轻其承担减排义务费用的3个“灵活机制”：“排放交易机制”、“联合履行机制”和“清洁发展机制”。这些机制构建了国际温室气体减排交易的基础,其中的清洁发展机制对中国减少温室气体的排放,提高能源利用率,推行清洁生产有积极的意义,我国应把握这一机会。     

后京都时代AFOLU机制政策选择问题初探

AFoLu机制将农业、林业和其他土地利用整合在一起,将被纳入后京都时代国际气候变化制度中并扮演关键角色。我国需选择基于AFOLU活动的正确的政策工具,充分认识自身的政策基础,在政策选择研究基础上做出最优政策选择,从而在后京都时代既适应和减缓全球气候变化,又有利于我国绿色经济发展。     

The potential contribution of sinks to meeting Kyoto Protocol commitments

The Kyoto Protocol to the climate convention makes provision for sink enhancement activities to contribute to meeting the greenhouse gas emissions limitation commitments of industrialised countries. This paper analyses the potential contribution of sink enhancement activities to meeting commitments of industrialised countries. Six scenarios covering different categories of eligible sinks are analysed. A range of the potential magnitude of the carbon sequestered by each category of sinks is tested. Since cost curves for the different types of sink enhancement activities are not available for most countries, a range of average costs is used with the lowest cost allowing maximum use of sinks. The effects considered are the impacts on compliance costs for OECD countries, economies in transition, and developing countries and the mix of actions used by industrialised countries to achieve compliance. In every scenario, at least some of the sinks have costs lower than the market price, so the larger the eligible sinks, the lower the compliance costs for industrialised countries. Greater use of sinks also reduces the net income received by the economies in transition and developing countries. Increased use of sinks lowers emission reductions implemented in industrialised countries and reduces non-sink activity under the Clean Development Mechanism.