An integrated sustainability decision-support framework Part II: Problem analysis

One of the main goals in decision-making for sustainable development is to identify and choose the most sustainable option among different alternatives. This process usually involves a large number of stakeholders with multiple, often conflicting objectives. Facilitating and resolving such difficult decision situations can be complex, so that a more formal and systematic approach to decision-making may be necessary. This paper proposes an integrated multiple criteria decision-support framework specifically developed to provide a systematic, step-by-step guidance to decision-makers. The framework, which is suitable for both corporate and public policy-making in the context of sustainable development, comprises three steps: problem structuring, problem analysis and problem resolution. This paper concentrates on problem analysis and resolution, where decision-makers articulate their preferences for different decision criteria. A suitable Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique, such as multi-objective optimisation, goal programming, value-based and outranking approaches, is then used to model the preferences. These techniques are discussed here in some detail, to provide guidance on the choice of the most appropriate MCDA method. Based on the outcome of preference modelling, which estimates the overall 'value' of each alternative being considered, decision-makers can then choose the 'best' or most sustainable option. Such an integrated decision-support framework is useful for providing structure to the debate, ensuring dialogue among decision-makers and showing trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In this way, it may be possible to create shared understanding about the issues, generate a sense of common purpose and, often, resolve 'difficult' decision problems.     

Assessing and evaluating environmental impacts at proposed nuclear power plant sites

The applicability of decision analysis for assessing, evaluating, and reporting possible environmental impacts of proposed large-scale projects is illustrated. A study concerning the ecological impacts of constructing and operating nuclear power facilities in the Pacific Northwest is used as an example. Possible impacts are quantified for two objectives: minimizing adverse impacts on salmonids and minimizing biological disturbance. The results provide information about both the direct and indirect consequences of the impact. This approach explicitly addresses the multiple objective and uncertainty issues inherent in environmental problems. It also provides a mechanism for illuminating the value structure which is utilized in the evaluation process.     

An integrated sustainability decision-support framework Part I: Problem structuring

One of the main goals in decision-making for sustainable development is to identify and choose the most sustainable option from among different alternatives. This process usually involves a large number of stakeholders with multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Facilitating and resolving such difficult decision situations can be complex, so that a more formal and systematic approach to decision-making may be necessary. This two-part paper proposes an integrated multiple criteria decision-support framework specifically developed to provide systematic, step-by-step guidance to decision-makers. The framework, which is suitable for both corporate and public policy-making in the context of sustainable development, comprises three steps: problem structuring, problem analysis and problem resolution. In this paper, the focus is on problem structuring while Part II concentrates on problem analysis and resolution. Problem structuring includes identification of stakeholders, sustainability issues and indicators relevant for a particular decision problem. Sustainability indicators are used as decision criteria for identifying and choosing the most sustainable option. In the problem analysis step, decision makers articulate their preferences for different decision criteria. A suitable Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique, such as multi-objective optimisation, goal programming, value-based and outranking approaches, is then used to model the preferences. These techniques are discussed in Part II, which also gives guidance on the choice of the most appropriate MCDA method. Based on the outcome of preference modelling, which estimates the overall 'value' of each alternative being considered, decision-makers can then choose the 'best' or most sustainable option. Such an integrated decision-support framework is useful for providing structure to the debate, ensuring dialogue among decision-makers and showing trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In this way, it may be possible to create shared understanding about the issues, generate a sense of common purpose, and often, resolve 'difficult' decision problems.     

Critical flow-storm approach to total maximum daily load (TMDL) development: an analytical conceptual model

One of the key challenges in the total maximum daily load (TMDL) development process is how to define the critical condition for a receiving waterbody. The main concern in using a continuous simulation approach is the absence of any guarantee that the most critical condition will be captured during the selected representative hydrologic period, given the scarcity of long-term continuous data. The objectives of this paper are to clearly address the critical condition in the TMDL development process and to compare continuous and event-based approaches in defining critical condition during TMDL development for a waterbody impacted by both point and nonpoint source pollution. A practical, event-based critical flow-storm (CFS) approach was developed to explicitly addresses the critical condition as a combination of a low stream flow and a storm event of a selected magnitude, both having certain frequencies of occurrence. This paper illustrated the CFS concept and provided its theoretical basis using a derived analytical conceptual model. The CFS approach clearly defined a critical condition, obtained reasonable results and could be considered as an alternative method in TMDL development.     

Potentials and limitations of using large-scale forest inventory data for evaluating forest succession models

Forest gap models have been applied widely to examine forest development under natural conditions and to investigate the effect of climate change on forest succession. Due to the complexity and parameter requirements of such models a rigorous evaluation is required to build confidence in the simulation results. However, appropriate data for model assessment are scarce at the large spatial and temporal scales of successional dynamics. In this study, we explore a data source for the evaluation of forest gap models that has been used only little in the past, i.e., large-scale National Forest Inventory data. The key objectives of this study were (a) to examine the potentials and limitations of using large-scale forest inventory data for evaluating the performance of forest gap models and (b) to test two particular models as case studies to derive recommendations for their future improvement.     

The influence of individuals in forming collective household preferences for water quality

Preference for water quality and its nonmarket valuation can be used to inform the development of pricing policies and long term supply strategies. Tap water quality is a household concern. The objective status quo of water provision varies between households and not between individuals within households, while charges are levied on households not individuals. Individual preferences differ from collective preferences. In households where there are two adults, we examine the preferences of each separately and then as a couple in collective decisions. We show the level of influence each has in developing the collective decision process. We use discrete choice experiments to model preference heterogeneity across three experiments on women, men and on both. We propose a random utility model which decomposes the error structure in the utility of alternatives so as to identify the individual influence in collective decisions. This approach to choice data analysis is new to environmental economics.     

Adaptive social impact management for conservation and environmental management

Concerns about the social consequences of conservation have spurred increased attention the monitoring and evaluation of the social impacts of conservation projects. This has resulted in a growing body of research that demonstrates how conservation can produce both positive and negative social, economic, cultural, health, and governance consequences for local communities. Yet, the results of social monitoring efforts are seldom applied to adaptively manage conservation projects. Greater attention is needed to incorporating the results of social impact assessments in long‐term conservation management to minimize negative social consequences and maximize social benefits. We bring together insights from social impact assessment, adaptive management, social learning, knowledge coproduction, cross‐scale governance, and environmental planning to propose a definition and framework for adaptive social impact management (ASIM). We define ASIM as the cyclical process of monitoring and adaptively managing social impacts over the life‐span of an initiative through the 4 stages of profiling, learning, planning, and implementing. We outline 14 steps associated with the 4 stages of the ASIM cycle and provide guidance and potential methods for social‐indicator development, predictive assessments of social impacts, monitoring and evaluation, communication of results, and identification and prioritization of management responses. Successful ASIM will be aided by engaging with best practices – including local engagement and collaboration in the process, transparent communication of results to stakeholders, collective deliberation on and choice of interventions, documentation of shared learning at the site level, and the scaling up of insights to inform higher‐level conservation policies‐to increase accountability, trust, and perceived legitimacy among stakeholders. The ASIM process is broadly applicable to conservation, environmental management, and development initiatives at various scales and in different contexts.     

Voluntary participation for sustainability transition: experiences from the ‘Commitment to Sustainable Development 2050’

Voluntary and active participation by a wide variety of actors is a prerequisite for successful societal transitions towards sustainability. The ‘Commitment to Sustainable Development 2050’ is a national-level initiative in Finland, aiming to mobilise a large-scale transition involving various societal actors through openly communicated commitments to concrete actions. Each commitment should focus on at least one of the eight nationally defined sustainability objectives connected to the global Sustainable Development Goals. This article assesses the implementation and the development needs of the commitment process based on a range of materials. The results highlight the importance of securing adequate resources for long-term coordination and continuous development of the commitment process, trust creation through long-term and open communication, and flexibility allowing for experimentation aimed at finding new modes of interaction between the public and private sectors.     

Two-phase modeling of sediment clouds

A sediment cloud release in stagnant ambient fluid occurs in many engineering applications. Examples include land reclamation and disposal of dredged materials. The detailed modeling of the distinct characteristics of both the solid and fluid phases of the sediment cloud is hitherto unavailable in the literature despite their importance in practice. In this paper, the two-phase mixing characteristics of the sediment cloud are investigated both experimentally and theoretically. Experiments were carried out to measure the transient depth penetration and the lateral spread of the sediment cloud and its entrained fluid using the laser induced fluorescence technique, with a range of particle sizes frequently encountered in the field (modeled at laboratory scale). A two-phase model of the sediment cloud that provides detailed predictions of the mixing characteristics of the individual phases is also proposed. The entrained fluid characteristics are solved by an integral model accounting for the buoyancy loss (due to particle separation) in each time step. The flow field induced by the sediment cloud is approximated by a Hill’s spherical vortex centered at the centroid and with the size of the entrained fluid. The particle equation of motion under the effect of the induced flow governs each computational particle. A random walk model using the hydrodynamic diffusion coefficient is used to account for the random fluctuation of particles in the dispersive regime. Overall, the model predictions of the two-phase mixing characteristics are in good agreement with the experimental data for a wide range of release conditions.     

Simple Spatial Modeling Tool for Prioritizing Prescribed Burning Activities at the Landscape Scale

Abstract:   Resources for prescribed fire are frequently insufficient to manage public lands for all conservation and resource management objectives, necessitating prioritization of the application of fire across the landscape within any given year. Defining tradeoffs when applying prescribed fire to large landscapes is problematic not only because of the complexity of weighing competing management objectives at the landscape scale, but also because of the difficult nature of independently applying need-to-burn criteria to large areas. We present a case study of a simple modeling process implemented at Eglin Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle (U.S.A.) to prioritize the application of prescribed fire. In a workshop setting, managers and biologists identified key conservation criteria and landscape management objectives that drive the application of prescribed fire. Remote sensing and other spatial data were developed to directly or indirectly represent all these criteria. Using geographic information system software, managers and biologists weighted each criterion according to its relative contribution to overall burn prioritization, and individual values for the criterion were scored according to how they influence the need to burn. Subsequently, this process has been validated and modified through ecological monitoring. This modeling process has also been applied to the 77,400-ha Blackwater River State Forest, public land adjacent to Eglin Air Force Base, demonstrating its applicability to lands with varying management priorities. The advantages of this model-based approach for prioritizing prescribed fire include the reliance on accessible, inexpensive software, the development of spatially explicit management objectives, the ease of transferability, and clearly stated assumptions about management that may be tested and reviewed through monitoring and public comment.     

The implications of model complexity for environmental management

The purpose of this paper is to consider the implicatons of model complexity for the quality of the information provided by models of production activities that account for the processes involved in residuals generation and treatment. Using each of the three primary technologies for iron and steel-making industry and models of varying detail for each, the paper compares the estimated levels of residuals generated and treatment costs for both atmospheric and waterborne effluents. The findings suggest that there are strategic details in model construction which have fundamental implications for the design of environmental policies. Moreover, preliminary estimates of the costs of model construction and operation suggest that policymakers may not be able to afford complexity for its own sake. Rather these costs will require the development of methods to isolate the strategic details in each technology that are potentially important to environmental policies.     

Conservation and management of the mediterranean coastal sand dunes in Israel

The aims of this study are to review the current situation of the Israeli Mediterranean coastal sand dunes, to examine the causes for this situation, and to propose options for future conservation and management of the protected dune areas based on ecological, environmental, landscape and recreational demands and interests. The coastal dunes of Israel are characterized by diverse plant communities, with 173 plant species occurring on sand (8.2% of the total flora of Israel) including many endemic species (26% of all endemic species in Israel). Most of the species are annuals. The importance of the coastal strip as a centre of floral and faunal speciation is also manifested in the existing sand-bound animals. However, many species are rare. This is mainly due to the extensive industrial and urban development along the coastal plain and the direct and indirect destruction of the remaining open dune areas by tourism, recreation and sand mining. Only ca. 17% of the Israeli coastal dunes are still of good or reasonable ecological value, while < 5% of this area has been designated as protected area. Management policies differ from place to place and depend on local objectives. These objectives derive mainly from the knowledge and data that exist for each location, and its statutory status. Since 1995 several projects, which aim to develop integrated management tools for nature conservation and recreation uses for all coastal sand dunes in Israel have been conducted. These projects are summarized in the present paper.     

Development of environmental policy,objectives, and targets

This paper describes a process to develop and establish an environmental policy and its associated environmental targets, objectives, and management programmes. The environmental policy is defined in a statement which addresses the company expectations for programmes that are important to assure adequate environmental protection and define its future commitment towards preventing pollution and continuously improving the effectiveness of its environmental protection programmes. A set of environmental objectives, derived from the policy, define the overall goals which will ensure that the company's environmental performance will remain consistent with the commitment identified in its policy when its environmental management system (EMS) is implemented, Environmental targets reflect the requirements and standards that the company must strive to achieve each objective and minimize any harmful environmental impacts from its production and manufacturing processes or other activities. In addition to defining specific targets, environmental management programmes are also used to guide EMS implementation. These programmes, however, must provide the company with the necessary flexibility to select the most appropriate technologies to enhance its own processes and prudently allocate its available financial resources in areas that return the greatest overall environmental benefit.Though they are expected to allow some discretion in the allocation of resources targeted towards environmental protection, EMS programmes must also provide assurance that the corporation environmental policy, objectives, targets, and management programmes do not result in a facility failure to adhere to all of its certification requirements. The principle and factors described in this article should be considered to the extent that they are necessary and practical.     

The People and Landscape Model (PALM): Towards full integration of human decision-making and biophysical simulation models

A model for simulating resource flows in a rural subsistence community is described. The People and Landscape Model (PALM) consists of a number of agents representing households, the landscape, and livestock. The landscape is made up of a number of homogeneous land units, or ‘fields’, each represented by an object containing data, methods and properties relevant to the field. Each field object consists of a number of soil layer objects, each of which contains routines to calculate its water balance and carbon and nitrogen dynamics. Organic matter decomposition is simulated by a version of the CENTURY model, while water and nitrogen dynamics are simulated by versions of the routines in the DSSAT crop models. The soil processes are simulated continuously, and vegetation types (crops, weeds, trees) can come and go in a field depending on its management. Crop growth and development are simulated by a generic model based on the DSSAT crop models, and which can be parameterised for different crops. Similarly, livestock growth and resource use is simulated by a generic model which can be parameterised for buffalo, cows, goats, sheep, chickens and pigs.     

Socio-economic impact management: programme design and implementation considerations

While larger mineral resource development projects offer new jobs and provide a stimulus to the economy of the area where they are sited, they may also pose problems in rural areas associated with rapid population growth. The purpose of an impact management programme is to anticipate and alleviate project effects that are generally perceived as undesirable and to enhance effects that are beneficial to site area communities. While the effective management of project effects is the end towards which all impact assessment efforts are directed, an integrated approach to impact management has been notably lacking. This paper suggests a systems framework for meeting this need by: (1) reviewing the need for impact management efforts; (2) discussing the objectives of, and considerations in, designing impact management programmes; (3) presenting a conceptual framework for, and key components of, such a programme; and (4) suggesting an approach for implementing such a system as an integral part of the project development process.     

Characterization of soil erosion and its implication to forest management

Forests have traditionally been managed to maximize timber production or economic profit, completely neglecting other forest values. Nowadays, however, forests are being managed for multiple uses. The basic requirement of multiple use forestry is to identify and quantify forest values and to determine management objectives. The priorities of management objectives, however, must be decided. In this study, a model predicting the soil loss for multi objective forest management was developed. The model was based on data from remeasurement of permanent sample plots. The data were gathered from 132 sample plots. Approximately 80% of the observations were used for model development and 20% for validation. The model was designed for even aged and uneven aged forests, as well as for forests with mixed and pure species composition. The explicatory variables in the model were mean diameter and number of trees. All parameter estimates were found highly significant (p < 0.001) in predicting soil loss. The model fit and validation tests were fairly good. The soil loss model presented in this paper was considered to have an appropriate level of reliability. It can be used in the overall multi-objective forest management planning, but, it should be limited to the conditions for which the data were gathered.     

Oceanic squid do fly

Using powerful jet propulsion, some squid species are able to exit the water and become airborne; this is a common behavior seen throughout the world’s oceans. However, direct scientific observation is rare, with most studies relying on anecdotal evidence and limited photographic documentation. Here, we examine the flying behavior of young oceanic squid (Ommastrephidae) observed in sequential photographs taken in the Northwest Pacific (35^o34.0′N, 146^o19.3′E) on July 25, 2011. We define four phases in the flight process: launching, jetting, gliding and diving. During flight, squid actively change their aerial posture and attitude depending on the flight phase and their distance from the water. The present study demonstrated that flight of squid is not simple gliding after incidental exit from the water, but involves jet propulsion, generation of lift force and control of different body postures in different flight phases, which have evolved to enhance escape from predators.