Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area,The Netherlands: enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which has led to initiatives to make the area more “climate proof.” We developed a research model that examines individual differences in processing information about climate change related flood risk, based on the postulate that individuals often make an implicit trade-off between motivation to know “what is real” and motivation to maintain prior beliefs. A field experiment, embedded in a survey (n = 1887), sought to test out how the participants responded to risk frames in which a story on flood was either or not combined with climate change information. The results show that it was possible to increase the participants’ local climate risk perception in combination with increased motivation for flood damage prevention, despite a certain level of climate change skepticism. A general implication of our study is that relevant and diagnostic information about local climate-related flood risks can stimulate citizens’ need to know “what’s real” and their willingness to take responsibility for preparedness.     

The role of gender in local residents’ relationships with Gaoligongshan Nature Reserve,Yunnan, China

Gender can play an important role in people’s relationships with the environment. Understanding if women and men perceive protected areas differently is an important facet of understanding park–people relationships. The objective of this study was to determine whether men and women differed in their relationship with Gaoligongshan Nature Reserve in Yunnan, China. We analyzed 523 surveys to explore differences between women’s and men’s attitudes, perceptions, knowledge, and use of the reserve. While the majority of women and men had positive attitudes toward the reserve, men were significantly more likely to be positive, had more knowledge about the reserve, and entered the reserve more than women. In addition, men were more likely than women to identify benefits and problems associated with the reserve. Using logistic regression, we explored different models to understand the gendered perceptions of problems and benefits of the reserve. We found that having less knowledge about the reserve contributed to women being less likely to perceive benefits, especially regulating services. Our results highlight the need for gender-sensitive approaches to park–people relationships in terms of management and research.     

Subregional differences in Australian climate risk perceptions: coastal versus agricultural areas of the Hunter Valley,NSW

‘Environmental cognitive stress’ a hybrid model combining environmental stress and cognitive determinants of pro-environmental behavior is explored among Australians living in contrasting ‘micro’ climates in the same river catchment system. Peoples’ climate risk perceptions are mediated by their connections to local environment, observations of environmental change and personal weather experiences. A longitudinal study randomly sampled 1,162 Hunter Valley coastal and rural residents in New South Wales. Telephone interviewers (2008) recruited lakeside homeowners ‘at risk’ of sea level rise, nearby ‘control’ residents and a comparable farming area group. Follow-up interviews (2011) located 81.5 % of the original sample. Fifty-six items based on the model asked about climate change observations, concerns, impacts and actions. Statistically significant rural–suburban and time differences were found. The rural sample was attuned to conditions affecting agricultural productivity: They worried about drought and heat, saw trees dying and changes to seasons and natural rhythms. They anticipate the impact of water scarcity, conserve water and value protecting plants and animals. Compared to higher elevation residents, lake dwellers observed marine life loss, worry about sea level rise and predict the decline of property values. Across time, all groups’ perceptions of warming indicators declined. Concerns and impacts were high and generally stayed high, as did actions related to energy use. No differences emerged in beliefs about climate warming. Climate change observations, along with concerns and actions, have important implications for the environmental cognitive stress model. Overall, dynamic changes in residents’ understandings are related to a changing policy environment, the vicissitudes of climate debates and weather experiences, including extreme swings from inundation to drought.     

Land institution of China: overall framework,structural evolution,and regulation intensity

China’s land institution can be defined broadly or narrowly. By examining the broad definition of the land institution, we found that there were prerequisite, complementary, and substitutional relationships among the various systems. These relationships were verified through discussion of the structural evolution of each system. Based on these relationships, three methods for quantification were used to measure the regulation intensity and intra-provincial differences in each system among 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China in 2014. The statistics analysis shows that provinces used to pursue outstanding performances in land institution but few provinces could outperform the other provinces in all types of systems. The statistics results also indicate that the provinces which executed land institution earlier often hold significant advantages in institutional innovations but it is still not clear whether they can maintain the advantages. This study recommends that the Chinese government should improve the overall framework of regional land institution based on land systems’ relationships and evolutionary patterns. Furthermore, the government should optimize the spatial distribution of regional land institution based on the intra-provincial differences in land-regulation intensity.     

Ecological and physiological characteristics of seasonal biology of the mongolian hamster, Allocricetulus curtatus allan 1940 (Cricetinae, Rodentia)

Analysis of the seasonal dynamics of body weight and steroid hormones (cortisol, progesterone, and testosterone), the pattern of hypothermia, and basic reproductive parameters has been performed in the Mongolian hamster (Allocricetulus curtatus), a poorly studied rodent species inhabiting areas with a sharply continental climate. The results show that torpor bouts take place in wintering animals. Changes in body weight during the autumn-winter season are insignificant. The pattern of fluctuations in the levels of sex steroids and cortisol is similar to that in dwarf hamsters of the genus Phodopus. Seasonal features in the dynamics of basal cortisol level differentiate A. curtatus from the closely related Eversmann’s hamster (A. eversmanni), which may be due to differences in the social structure of these species.     

Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative,explorative, and participatory scenario approaches

Competing water demands for household consumption as well as the production of food, energy, and other uses pose challenges for water supply and sustainable development in many parts of the world. Designing creative strategies and learning processes for sustainable water governance is thus of prime importance. While this need is uncontested, suitable approaches still have to be found. In this article we present and evaluate a conceptual approach to scenario building aimed at transdisciplinary learning for sustainable water governance. The approach combines normative, explorative, and participatory scenario elements. This combination allows for adequate consideration of stakeholders’ and scientists’ systems, target, and transformation knowledge. Application of the approach in the MontanAqua project in the Swiss Alps confirmed its high potential for co-producing new knowledge and establishing a meaningful and deliberative dialogue between all actors involved. The iterative and combined approach ensured that stakeholders’ knowledge was adequately captured, fed into scientific analysis, and brought back to stakeholders in several cycles, thereby facilitating learning and co-production of new knowledge relevant for both stakeholders and scientists. However, the approach also revealed a number of constraints, including the enormous flexibility required of stakeholders and scientists in order for them to truly engage in the co-production of new knowledge. Overall, the study showed that shifts from strategic to communicative action are possible in an environment of mutual trust. This ultimately depends on creating conditions of interaction that place scientists’ and stakeholders’ knowledge on an equal footing.     

Exploring relationships of environmental attitudes,behaviors, and sociodemographic indicators to aspects of discourses: analyses of International Social Survey Programme data in the Philippines

Data from the International Social Survey Programme 2000 and 2010 environment modules were analyzed to explore the relationships between attitudes, behavior, and sociodemographic variables to citizens’ preferences to aspects of environmental discourse in the Philippines. Overall, significantly more people agree to multilateralism, equity, and the link between the environment and economic progress in 2010 as compared to 2000. A series of multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to determine significant predictors to peoples’ disposition to variables related to three overarching environmental discourses. After controlling for other covariates, the study found that the more the Filipinos adhere to statements toward science and nature that are negatively connoted: the more likely they are to agree to international multilateral commitments and ascribe to equity for poorer countries in environmental efforts; and less likely to disagree to the aspects of multilateralism, equity, and the link between the environment and economic progress. Furthermore, the results showed that demographics and civic participations generally did not have a statistically significant impact on Filipino’s agreement or disagreement to environmental discourses. The paper then discusses the implications of the findings and conclusions of the study.     

Livelihood strategies,environmental dependency and rural poverty: the case of two villages in rural Mozambique

This article attempts to explore the nexus between rural households’ environmental dependency, poverty and livelihood strategies. Households’ income from each livelihood activities formed the basis for categorizing households according to livelihood strategies. The principal component analysis, agglomerative hierarchical and the k-means cluster analysis were employed to determine the four livelihood clusters and to assign households to the identified livelihood strategies. Households’ environmental dependency, poverty and asset holding were compared across the strategies, and the determinants of livelihood choice were analyzed using multinomial logit model. The results indicate the existence of marked differences in environmental dependency, rural poverty and asset endowments across the livelihood groups. Household’s total saving, access to credit, production implements, business cost, exposure to agricultural shock determined household’s access to a more remunerative livelihood strategy. Incomes from each livelihood activities for the identified livelihood strategies were analyzed, and their implications were also discussed.     

Status differences in collective action and forest benefits: evidence from joint forest management in India

Does status matter in community-based forest management? If so, are the high-status households more benefited than the low-status households? What drives status differences, if any, in the appropriation of forest resources? To address these questions, we draw on a theory of status and resource use that defines one’s status as one’s relative position in a group on the basis of power, prestige, honor and deference. Following this perspective, we surveyed the heads of 341 forest-based rural households in India from 2009 to 2010. We find that collective actions themselves are status-driven and the high-status households are more interested and involved in status-maintaining collective actions such as decision-making and implementation, while the low-status households perform general tasks like forest patrol. Moreover, the high-status households derive benefits from local forest significantly more than the low-status households. Further, decomposition analysis shows that a household’s prestige and honor measured by its access to social resources, problem faced and useful contacts explain about 56 % of the status gap in forest benefits, while socioeconomic characteristics explain only 16 % of the gap. Thus, due emphasis on household status from a broader socioeconomic perspective is required to reduce inequality in participation and the distribution of forest benefits in co-management.     

农地流转与农户生计策略联合决策研究

基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年农村住户数据,采用多元probit模型实证检验了农户土地流转决策、农户种植经济作物决策和非农劳动力转移决策之间的相互影响。研究发现:①农户土地流转与劳动力非农转移和经济作物种植生计决策相互关联。总体而言,土地转入与种植经济作物决策正相关,与非农劳动力转移决策负相关。土地转出与非农劳动力转移决策正相关,与种植经济作物决策负相关。②土地流转与农户非农劳动力转移和经济作物种植等生计策略的关系与农地流转规模相关,小规模和中等规模的土地转入与非农劳动力转移之间未有显著关系,与经济作物种植决策具有显著正向关系,但大规模的土地转入与农户经济作物种植决策和非农就业决策显著负相关。③土地流转是否影响农户生计多样化决策还取决于地区机械化程度。机械化程度较高的平原地区土地转入决策与农户非农劳动力转移和经济作物种植决策未有显著关系,而机械化程度较低的高山、丘陵、高原等地区土地转入决策与农户种植经济作物和非农就业决策分别存在正相关和负相关关系,表明随着机械化对农业劳动力替代程度的增强,土地流转对农户劳动力配置的影响效应减弱。政策建议是:①统筹推进农村土地、劳动力市场发展,推动农户土地流转参与,促进转出户生计向非农专业化转移,促进转入户农地适度规模经营;②完善农机社会化服务市场,提高农机和农技融合使用深度和广度,提高农机对农业劳动力的替代弹性,增强转入户农业劳动力农地规模经营的能力,增加农业生产比较收益。     

Environment and Personal Well-being in Urban China

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between environment and personal well-being using a sample of 562 urban employees from three cities in Liaoning province in the People’s Republic of China.In contrast to previous studies,this study controlled positive affectivity (PA),negative affectivity (NA),job satisfaction and Big Five personality traits.In addition,the research variables of personal well-being index (PWI),positive affectivity,negative affectivity,job satisfaction,Big Five,and environmental satisfaction are measured with multi-item scales.The research finds that environmental satisfaction is positively related to personal well-being,suggesting that improvement of the natural surroundings in the cities can improve people’s well-being.     

Climate change,food security,and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region’s susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security’s vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in sub-Saharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.     

The development and unraveling of marine resource co-management in the Pemba Channel,Zanzibar: institutions,governance, and the politics of scale

Marine resource management programs face conflicting mandates: to scale-up marine conservation efforts to cover larger areas and meet national and international conservation targets, while simultaneously to downscale and decentralize management authority to resource users and local communities. These conflicting goals create tensions in marine resource management. This paper explores these tensions by presenting and evaluating the outcomes of a fisheries co-management program on the island of Pemba, Tanzania, where institutions and scale were configured and reconfigured under externally funded programs to improve marine conservation through co-management. The initial institutional arrangements for co-management supported a functioning system to protect marine resources, ensure fishermen’s access, and distribute tourism revenues. However, a subsequent push to scale-up marine management reconfigured institutional arrangements and power in a more hierarchical and potentially weaker system. With the expansion of the co-management program, protected area coverage, financial resources, and the number of community organizations created for fisheries co-management expanded tremendously; however, community participation in marine management decreased, and the fishermen’s association previously involved in co-management dissolved. Several factors contributed to this outcome: inadequate time to solidify co-management institutions and arrangements, diverse resource users inexperienced with local management, a sudden and substantial new source of funding, and political pressures to restructure marine management. Rather than focusing primarily on expanding coverage and devolving authority, it is important to adapt co-management arrangements to the local contexts in which they operate.     

中国碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响研究

总量控制下的碳市场在减少温室气体排放的同时,会增加企业的碳排放成本,进而可能降低企业的贸易竞争力。本文选择全国碳市场覆盖的6个能源密集型和贸易暴露型行业,以行业贸易竞争力指数、行业出口值和出口竞争力指数作为贸易竞争力的衡量指标,研究了碳价格对它们贸易竞争力的影响。由于缺乏全国碳价格数据,本文选用能源成本作为碳价格的代理变量,先研究能源成本对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响,通过碳价格向能源成本的映射关系,再研究碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的影响。首先,本文设定(对数)线性模型,研究了行业能源成本对行业贸易竞争力的影响。结果显示,行业能源成本每提升100元,行业贸易竞争力指数约下降0.0136;行业能源成本每提升100%,行业出口值和行业出口竞争力指数分别下降约22.97%和12.26%。然后,本文研究了行业能源消费和二氧化碳排放之间的关系,建立碳价格向行业能源成本的映射。由于短期内行业能源消费结构比较稳定,每消费1单位能源,行业排放二氧化碳的量就相对固定,但又因行业间的能源结构存在差异,相同的碳价格映射到各行业的能源成本也就不同。之后,本文构建存在全国碳价格的反事实情景,通过映射关系研究了不同水平碳价格对覆盖行业贸易竞争力的边际影响和累积影响。结果显示,碳价格对覆盖行业的贸易竞争力的边际影响递减。由于行业能源成本、映射系数及出口规模的不同,碳价格对覆盖行业出口值的影响规模存在一定的差异。最后,本文根据研究结果提出相关政策建议。     

江苏省养老服务业区域差异、空间集聚及驱动因素研究

推动养老服务业区域协调发展是实现养老服务业高质量发展的基础。运用综合指标评价法、泰尔指数及ESDA等方法,对2005～2015年江苏省县域养老服务业时空演变格局和空间关联性进行分析,并采用空间计量模型探讨其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)江苏省养老服务业发展水平总体较低且不均衡,呈现"南高北低"的显著差异;(2)区域差异呈"扩大-缩小-扩大-缩小"的"M"字型演变趋势,区域内差异大于区域间差异;(3)江苏省不同县域间养老服务业空间关联性显著为正,出现了发展水平相似县域相邻分布的空间集聚效应,空间集聚格局呈现稳态的南北差异;(4)人口老龄化、经济发展水平、城镇化水平、市场力量、产业结构、养老保障水平以及政府政策等多种因素对江苏省养老服务业发展格局和区域差异产生了不同程度的影响。     

Environment and Personal Well-being in Urban China

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between environment and personal well-being using a sample of 562 urban employees from three cities in Liaoning province in the People’s Republic of China. In contrast to previous studies, this study controlled positive affectivity (PA), negative affectivity (NA), job satisfaction and Big Five personality traits. In addition, the research variables of personal well-being index (PWI), positive affectivity, negative affectivity, job satisfaction, Big Five, and environmental satisfaction are measured with multi-item scales. The research finds that environmental satisfaction is positively related to personal well-being, suggesting that improvement of the natural surroundings in the cities can improve people’s well-being.     

Exploring socio-cultural values of ecosystem service categories in the Central Alps: the influence of socio-demographic factors and landscape type

The socio-cultural assessment of ecosystem services has been proposed as a promising tool for eliciting people’s preferences towards ecosystem services. Despite an increasing integration of the socio-cultural perspective in ecosystem service research, little knowledge exists about linkages between landscape and the socio-cultural values people assign to ecosystem services. This paper combines a socio-cultural valuation approach with the use of landscape pictures to analyse and compare people’s perceived importance of the provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem service categories across three landscape types (i.e. larch meadows, spruce forests, and hay meadow). A survey with 470 tourists visiting the region of South Tyrol (Italy) was conducted to link people’s perceived importance to their socio-demographic background and to the landscape types explored. The results show that regulating ecosystem services are preferred over provisioning and cultural services, whereby environmental awareness is found to be more influential than formal education levels regarding the perceived importance of regulating services. The results further demonstrate that cultural background is an important driver in determining people’s perceived importance of cultural services. The underlying landscape types, however, exert an even stronger influence on people’s socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem service categories. This finding suggests that the focus of most ecosystem services assessments on the study area as a whole risks mistakenly attributing differences in people’s socio-cultural values to socio-demographic characteristics only. A better knowledge of the spatial integration of socio-cultural values, however, could help with anticipating the consequences of changes in the landscape and provide better guidance for future landscape planning.     

预期收益、可行能力对农户生态耕种采纳意愿的影响及其代际差异

利用江西省2 068份调研数据,借鉴目标设置理论,实证分析预期收益、可行能力对农户生态耕种采纳意愿的主效应和调节效应及其代际差异的影响。结果显示:(1)预期收益对农户生态耕种采纳意愿产生显著影响,高预期收益对农户生态耕种采纳意愿具有正向作用,而中等预期、低预期收益对农户生态耕种采纳意愿具有负向作用;而且预期收益对农户生态耕种采纳意愿的作用存在代际差异。(2)可行能力的提高对农户生态耕种采纳意愿具有正向影响,而且在其预期收益与生态耕种采纳意愿的关系中具有调节作用。因此,应鼓励农户进行生态耕种,并通过示范作用,强化对预期收益的认可;加大生态耕种的基本知识宣传和相关技能培训提升自身的可行能力;生态耕种的激励政策应体现差别化来适应代际差异需求。     

经营规模、地权稳定与农户有机肥施用行为——基于调节效应和中介效应模型的研究

以湖北和山东两省的农户调查数据为依据,实证分析经营规模对农户有机肥施用行为的影响,在此基础上,进一步研究了地权稳定性的调节作用以及经营规模影响有机肥施用行为的内在传导机制。研究发现：(1)经营规模对农户有机肥施用行为具有显著的正向促进作用;(2)地权稳定对经营规模影响农户有机肥施用的作用效果存在调节效应;(3)经营规模通过影响农户有机肥施用的行为态度和能力,正向激励农户有机肥施用;(4)有机肥施用行为能力的中介效应强于行为态度。本研究在一定程度上拓展了新古典经济学中有关经济偏好的理论解释,并对有效激励农户有机肥施用行为的对策措施提供了参考与建议。     

Organic certification for shrimp value chains in Ca Mau,Vietnam: a means for improvement or an end in itself?

Eco-certification has been used as a tool to mitigate adverse effects of aquaculture production and might thus be understood as a private approach to sustainable ecosystem management. In production forests in Ca Mau, Vietnam, where mangrove have suffered degradation despite legal protection, different projects have targeted reversing this trend by means of private certification using the ‘Naturland’ organic standard as a reference. So far the outcomes have, however, been proven unsatisfactory. With the aim to better understand the reasons for these poor outcomes, a survey of forty households was conducted in a production forest in Rach Goc commune, Ngoc Hien District. We evaluated farmers’ perceptions on mangrove management, the drivers guiding shrimp farming, and whether there was a difference between participants and non-participants in a former ‘Naturland’ organic project. To complement the survey, a range of stakeholders involved in shrimp value chains were interviewed to better understand the terms and benefits of certification. The results of this survey suggested that, when applied to shrimp–mangrove farming systems in production forests in Ca Mau, ‘eco-certification’ and associated benefits are not very satisfactory. The survey results revealed that certified farms do not show significant differences to non-certified farms in terms of social and environmental benefits. As far as the implementation process was concerned, the survey results showed that a failure to integrate local farmers as participants consequently resulted in households becoming ‘objects’ for certification and not project partners with equal weight and power. It appears that rather than being a tool for improvement, ‘Naturland’ certification for shrimp–mangrove farming systems in Ca Mau’s production forests has become an end in itself.