Linking socio-economic factors, environment and land cover in the German Highlands, 1945-1999

Land-cover changes are caused by human activities and natural ecological processes. Thus, our study uses an interdisciplinary approach to research land-cover changes. We present a method to (i) link socio-economic/environmental factors and land-cover changes, (ii) identify indicators of land-cover changes, and (iii) distinguish between socio-economic and environmental indicators associated with local types of overall land-cover changes. The study was conducted in the Lahn-Dill Highlands, Germany, a typical marginal rural landscape. In this region, we investigated land-cover changes occurring over the period 1945-1999. Land-cover data were derived from multi-temporal aerial photographs. Types of overall land-cover changes characterising the districts within the study area were differentiated. With the help of redundancy analysis (RDA), we analysed the relationships between land-cover changes and widely available socio-economic/environmental factors. The results reveal that both individual land-cover changes at patch level and types of overall land-cover changes characterising districts are correlated with socio-economic and environmental factors. Whereas the stable environmental factors are drivers of land-cover changes in our rural study area, socio-economic factors introduced into the analysis mostly result from land-cover changes. We identified correlative socio-economic indicators that cannot explain land-cover changes, but that in combination with the environmental factors can be used to greatly facilitate the reconstruction of past land-cover changes and thus lead to a better knowledge of land-cover history. Based on the types of overall land-cover changes, the results of the study can be adopted for the study of land-cover changes in other regions.     

Social and economic impacts of carbon sequestration and land use change on peasant households in rural China: a case study of Liping, Guizhou Province

Numerous innovative approaches to mitigate effects of excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on global climate change are being proposed and formulated. Sequestering carbon to terrestrial ecosystems represents one of the important clean development mechanisms. Reforestation through converting various non-forest lands to forests is undoubtedly an important dimension of carbon sequestration. Using Liping County in Guizhou Province as a case region, this study examines the perceived change in social and economic livelihoods of peasants and the factors responsible for the variations in the changes. The results of the study reveal that socio-economic changes associated with the government-financed project are multifaceted and profound. Because of the financial subsidies provided by the central government, this environmental action in many aspects can be regarded as a poverty reduction measure in the underdeveloped area where rural poverty is widespread. A majority of peasant households have benefited from project participation. The land conversion project with continued financial support also contributes to the social transformations of traditional rural society in remote areas to a more mobile, less subsistence agriculture-based, and open society.     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Agro-Biodiversity Conservation in Europe: Ethical Issues

While it is commonly acknowledged that the ecosystemic, and the inter- and intra-specific diversity of natural life is under threat of being irremediably lost, there is much less awareness that the diversity in agro-ecosystems is also under threat. This paper is focused on the biodiverse agro-ecosystems generated by landraces (LRs), i.e., farmer-developed populations of cultivated species that show among- and within-population diversity and are linked to traditional cultures. The aim of this work is to arouse concern about their loss, to explain how they can be conserved, and to discuss values that support maintaining and/or restoring on-farm agro-biodiversity. Although agriculture has relied on biodiverse agro-ecosystems for millennia, most of them have disappeared or are disappearing due to profound transformations in the socio-economic context. This is discussed with particular reference to the European situation. The positive values of LRs and LR systems that support their conservation are discussed along with possible objections. The conservation of LRs and LR systems can be well justified on ethical grounds. In particular, the complex intertwining of the biological and cultural contexts of LR systems, which continuously creates new adaptive responses to the changing socio-economic and eco-physical processes, is a value that strongly motivates conservation, particularly when the needs of future generations are considered.     

Alternative approaches to flood mitigation: a case study of Bangladesh

Floods were by far the most damaging type of natural disasters during the 1990s, in terms of both human impacts and socio-economic losses. Vulnerability to flooding disasters around the world is almost always differentiated by the socio-economic conditions of different income groups in the disaster area. In general, the poorer the income group (or the country) the more vulnerable it is likely to be to the adverse impacts of floods. The article argues that Bangladesh is the world's most flood-prone developing country in terms of the relative socio-economic impacts of floods. While conventional flood control strategies tend to be based on structural engineering approaches—such as the construction of large-scale embankments, diversion canals and dams—this article argues that more emphasis should be given to alternative, non-structural measures. The main lesson from recent flooding disasters in Bangladesh is that, in the absence of expensive structural measures, many non-structural ones can go a long way towards reducing vulnerability to and mitigating the impacts of floods.     

Discrimination and bias in the vegan ideal

The vegan ideal is entailed by arguments for ethical veganism based on traditional moral theory (rights and/or utilitarianism) extended to animals. The most ideal lifestyle would abjure the use of animals or their products for food since animals suffer and have rights not to be killed. The ideal is discriminatory because the arguments presuppose a male physiological norm that gives a privileged position to adult, middle-class males living in industrialized countries. Women, children, the aged, and others have substantially different nutritional requirements and would bear a greater burden on vegetarian and vegan diets with respect to health and economic risks, than do these males. The poor and many persons in Third World nations live in circumstances that make the obligatory adoption of such diets, where they are not already a matter of sheer necessity, even more risky.Traditional moral theorists (such as Evelyn Pluhar and Gary Varner whose essays appear in this issue) argue that those who are at risk would beexcused from a duty to attain the virtue associated with ethical vegan lifestyles. The routine excuse of nearly everyone in the world besides adult, middle-class males in industrialized countries suggests bias in the perspective from which traditional arguments for animal rights and (utilitarian) animal welfare are formulated.     

A note on the use of the analytic hierarchy process for environmental impact assessment

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an intrinsically complex multi-dimensional process, involving multiple criteria and multiple actors. Multi-criteria methods can serve as useful decision aids for carrying out the EIA. This paper proposes the use of a multi-criteria technique, namely the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), for the purpose. AHP has the flexibility to combine quantitative and qualitative factors, to handle different groups of actors, to combine the opinions expressed by many experts, and can help in stakeholder analysis. The main shortcomings of AHP and some modifications to it to overcome the shortcomings are briefly described. Finally, the use of AHP is illustrated for a case study involving socio-economic impact assessment. In this case study, AHP has been used for capturing the perceptions of stakeholders on the relative severity of different socio-economic impacts, which will help the authorities in prioritizing their environmental management plan, and can also help in allocating the budget available for mitigating adverse socio-economic impacts.     

The Role of Livestock Production Ethics in Consumer Values Towards Meat

This study examines the specificvalues held by consumers towards organic andconventionally produced meat, with particularreference to moral issues surrounding foodanimal production. A quota sample of 30 femalesfrom both a rural and an urban area of Scotland(UK), were interviewed. Overall, there was lowcommitment towards the purchase of organicmeats and little concern for ethical issues.Price and product appearance were the primarymeat selection criteria, the latter being usedas a predictor of eating quality. Manyattitude-behavior anomalies were identified,mainly as a result of respondents' cognitivedissonance and lack of understanding regardingmeat production criteria underpinning meatquality marks, e.g., Soil Association label.Responsibilities for ethical issues appeared tobe delegated by the consumer to the meatretailer or government. This raises issuesabout educating consumers and bringingconsumers closer to understanding meatproduction systems. A conceptual framework isproposed that illustrates the significance ofconsumer involvement in how meat-purchasingdecisions are approached in terms of theevaluation of tangible and or intangiblequality attributes. The results also point tothe need for further research into thoseaspects of quality that individuals tend toaddress at the level of the citizen (law),rather than at the point of purchase.     

Boater preferences for beach characteristics downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

Release flow decisions are increasingly being influenced by an array of social values, including those related to river-based recreation. A substantial portion of past recreation research on downstream impacts of dams has focused on variability of instream flows. This study complements past research by assessing user preferences for beach characteristics affected by long-term impacts of flow regimes. Based upon a study of three recreational user groups (private trip leaders, commercial passengers, and river guides) of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, preferences for beach size, presence of shade on beach, and presence of vegetation on beach are examined. Results indicate that large size beaches with shade from trees are setting characteristics with highly reliable and strong user preferences. The multinomial regression models developed for each user group indicate that 80% of all respondents would choose beach campsites 800 m(2); results were the same regardless of respondents' past boating experience, boat type (i.e. oar or motorized), or group size. In addition, size of beach was consistently reported to be a trip feature of moderate importance to respondents' river trip. Implications of this research are related to future prospects for controlled floods (i.e. spike flows) released from Glen Canyon Dam.     

Hypothetical and Real Economic Commitments,and Social Status,in Valuing a Species Protection Programme

There has been a long-running debate on the reliability and validity of the contingent valuation method, connected with the hypotheticality of the situation when respondents are asked to state their willingness to pay (WTP) for species protection (the so-called 'hypothetical bias'). Additionally, a number of recent arguments regarding donations to good causes and the benefits of achieving social status have questioned the motives of respondents who have stated their WTP. An experiment at the University of Klagenfurt tested for hypothetical bias by asking participants to state their hypothetical and real WTP for a species protection programme in the Hohe Tauern national park. Hypothetical and real WTP differed significantly. Additionally, it emerged that the pure ecological motive for stating a WTP might be concealed by arguments about donating in order to achieve social status and contributing to a good cause.     

Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis

Following the Boskin et al., (1996) report, it became widely recognized that price indexes in the U.S. and elsewhere overstate inflation. Svedberg and Tilton (2006) highlighted that this inflation bias may have important implications for estimated long-term trends in nonrenewable resource prices. ST construct an inflation-bias corrected CPI (and PPI) for the U.S. and use their corrected deflator(s) to define a so-called ‘real real’ price of copper. Their ‘real real’ price of copper is then used to re-estimate long-term trends in real copper prices. This paper proposes a quick method for obtaining inflation-bias-corrected estimates of long-run trends in real primary commodity prices directly from estimates in the published literature. Our approach obviates the need re-do existing empirical studies using a corrected or ‘real real’ price of nonrenewable resources. The two approaches are mathematically equivalent.     

Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.     

Managing for Multiple Resources Under Climate Change: National Forests

This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning and management that the United States Forest Service might adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-climatic changes, influence selection of the adaptation approach. Resource assessments are opportunities to develop strategic information that could be used to identify and link adaptation strategies across planning levels. Within a National Forest, planning must incorporate the opportunity to identify vulnerabilities to climate change as well as incorporate approaches that allow management adjustments as the effects of climate change become apparent. The nature of environmental variability, the inevitability of novelty and surprise, and the range of management objectives and situations across the National Forest System implies that no single approach will fit all situations. A toolbox of management options would include practices focused on forestalling climate change effects by building resistance and resilience into current ecosystems, and on managing for change by enabling plants, animals, and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Better and more widespread implementation of already known practices that reduce the impact of existing stressors represents an important “no regrets” strategy. These management opportunities will require agency consideration of its adaptive capacity, and ways to overcome potential barriers to these adaptation options.     

Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles

This paper addresses the fluctuations in real metal prices: are they simply random variations or do they display some degree of cyclicality? This study identifies peaks and troughs in the inflation adjusted prices for 14 metals, using monthly average data from January 1947 through December 2007. Duration dependence testing, which is performed on the expansions, contractions, and full cycles, finds many cases in which the duration of these phases are not purely random and have some degree of cyclicality. Additional characterization show that contractions generally persist longer than expansions (in contrast to macroeconomic cycles) that long-term real prices have been trendless, and that the amplitude of price changes over the phases has little regularity. For those performing this type of analysis, the appendices explain the procedures for dating turning points and assessing duration dependence.     

Public opinion and interest group positions on open-space issues in Albuquerque,New Mexico,USA: Implications for resource management

The purpose of this research was to elicit and compare the open-space preferences of citizens and openspace experts in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. A randomly selected sample of 492 citizens and 35 open-space experts participated in a telephone survey during May 5–18, 1986. The following hypothesis was tested and used as a guideline for the study:HO1: There is no significant difference between respondents' status and preference for open space in Albuquerque, New Mexico.The hypothesis was rejected. Findings confirmed respondents' status affected preference for open space. Of the eight issues on which the citizen and expert groups were compared, five recorded significant differences in response profiles. The open-space expert group was significantly more supportive of using open space to accommodate offroad vehicle facilities, wildlife preserves, a citywide recreational trail, and a trail system along the arroyos and city ditches. The citizen sample was significantly more supportive of using open space to accommodate overnight camping facilities. Both groups equally supported using open space to accommodate an outdoor amphitheater, outdoor education facilities, and rafting, kayaking, and canoeing facilities.The finding indicated that expert preferences did not represent an aggregate of citizen preferences for managing open-space resources. Understanding both expert and citizen positions will facilitate decision-making processes and help resolve environmental disputes.     

From Policy Document to Implementation: Organizational Routines as Possible Barriers to Mainstreaming Climate Adaptation

This paper aims to understand the role of organizational routines as possible barriers to the mainstreaming of climate adaptation at the implementation stage. While the mainstreaming of climate adaptation into policy documents is relatively easy, the implementation of these policies seems to be more problematic. Barriers to climate adaptation often occur during this stage as the implementation of the policies is generally undertaken by other actors than the policy-makers. These actors act based on organizational routines. As organizational routines aim to provide stability, they tend to be reaffirmative. Reorganizing the resources and practices of these actors to initiate mainstreaming then proves difficult. Consequently, the routines could prevent change that might be necessary to address new policy objectives such as climate adaptation. An analytical framework consisting of four self-reinforcing mechanisms is used to understand and explain why and how organizational routines can hamper the mainstreaming of climate adaptation during implementation. A case study is used to illustrate organizational routines as possible barriers. The paper concludes by stating that to optimize the possibilities of mainstreaming climate adaptation, a change in routines is necessary. In order to stimulate change in organizational routines, the focus should be on reflecting on existing routines, legitimacy building and learning.     

Associations between forest characteristics and socio-economic development: a case study from Portugal

The integration of socio-economic and environmental objectives is a major challenge in developing strategies for sustainable landscapes. We investigated associations between socio-economic variables, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition in the context of Portugal. The main goals of the study were to 1) investigate relationships between forest conditions and measures of socio-economic development at national and regional scales, 2) test the hypothesis that a systematic variation in forest landscape metrics occurs according to the stage of socio-economic development and, 3) assess the extent to which landscape metrics can inform strategies to enhance forest sustainability. A ranking approach and statistical techniques such as Principal Component Analysis were used to achieve these objectives. Relationships between socio-economic characteristics, landscape metrics and measures of forest condition were only significant in the regional analysis of municipalities in Northern Portugal. Landscape metrics for different tree species displayed significant variations across socio-economic groups of municipalities and these differences were consistent with changes in characteristics suggested by the forest transition model. The use of metrics also helped inform place-specific strategies to improve forest management, though it was also apparent that further work was required to better incorporate differences in forest functions into sustainability planning.