高压开关柜阻燃绝缘件在役老化诱发着火事故的综合分析

高压开关柜长期连续运行在高温高湿环境下,内部的阻燃绝缘件会老化而导致性能劣化,进而引起电弧击穿乃至着火事故。为揭示绝缘件样品老化对其击穿与引燃特性的影响机制,针对已在役运行12年开关柜内老化阻燃固封极柱样品和同配方新样品,开展了微观形貌、热重-差示扫描量热、热重-红外光谱和微量燃烧特性综合分析。结果表明：开关柜内的长期电热应力易使环氧树脂绝缘材料的微观结构产生破坏,内部易产生孔洞和裂纹,导致其绝缘性能下降;开关柜内的高温环境易使绝缘材料内部分子链缓慢断裂,导致老化样品更易受热分解;同时,柜内高温高湿环境既可使其材料内部孔隙吸湿而降低绝缘性能,还易导致磷系阻燃剂吸潮氧化,降低其阻燃性能;最后,与新样品相比,12年老化样品在升温初期的燃烧释热更高,一旦形成击穿电弧,更易着火燃烧。研究结果为高压开关柜因绝缘件老化失效而形成击穿起火事故提供了分析要点,并可作为未来更高性能阻燃绝缘件的优化设计依据。     

PVC护套线过电流诱发短路过程及绝缘燃烧速率研究

为深入研究护套线过电流诱发短路过程及绝缘燃烧特征与引发火灾危险的关系,搭建电源护套线过电流诱发短路故障电路,统计初次短路的发生时间和位置,借助高速摄像机获取短路发生的过程,分析绝缘燃烧特征。结果表明：护套线在受到过电流作用后,其绝缘层逐渐失效,诱发短路故障,短路电弧引起绝缘层燃烧;短路后绝缘发生燃烧的最低概率为62.5%,发生在24 A时,48 A时燃烧持续时间最长为51 s,持续时间约为24 A时的2倍,最大火焰蔓延速率为2.08 mm/s,燃烧持续时间与火焰蔓延速率均随电流增大呈指数递增。     

不同通风条件下柴油池火的实验研究

为了分析不同通风条件对柴油池火燃烧特性及引燃特性的影响,进行205 mm带水垫层柴油池火的引燃实验,通过对池火燃料的质量损失速率、火焰高度、温度及热辐射等的监测,分析通风环境中柴油池火的热传递规律。结果表明:当风速为0.5 m/s时,火灾进入旺盛阶段的时间提前,火焰平均温度最高;当风速为1 m/s时,风速的增加导致油池火的质量损失速率增加,位于主火源下风向的待引燃火源获得的热辐射通量增大,火灾旺盛阶段火焰的平均温度降低,火焰高度降低,下风向相邻油盘引燃的时间提前;1 m/s情况下,205 mm带水垫层柴油池火的安全间距需增加到1D以上;通风环境对池火发展及蔓延的影响是显著的,应适当加大下风向可燃物的安全间距,合理选择通风排烟风速,优化火灾应急救援策略。     

BVR多芯铜导线过电流故障下燃烧及火焰传播研究*

为深入研究BVR多芯铜导线过电流故障下燃烧及火焰传播特征,采用堆栈技术分析导线受热形变,并利用高速摄像机记录故障导线发热、熔断及绝缘燃烧现象,研究导线发热形变、熔断时间及燃烧时火焰传播速度与电流值变化关系。结果表明:当I=136 A时,导线不发生熔断,只有当高温线芯直接接触周围可燃物才可引发火灾;当I=153 A时,导线会发生熔断现象,且熔断时间随过电流值升高而缩短;当I=204 A时,导线发生熔断,断路电弧引燃周围热解气体,火焰前沿迅速蔓延至导线两端,平均火焰前沿传播速度达2.2 m/s,平均明火持续时间达8.2 s,整根导线无需外界可燃物即可发生明火燃烧。研究结果可为起火原因认定提供技术指导。     

1kV配电电缆的电弧引燃过程研究

电弧引燃电缆是造成电缆火灾的重要因素,威胁电力设备的安全运行与电力可靠供应。为了探索配电电缆的电弧引燃机理,构建了电弧引燃1 kV配电电缆实验平台,结合火灾动力学仿真,初步研究了电弧引燃电缆过程中的点燃、火焰蔓延及温度场分布,进一步探索了电弧火源功率对电弧引燃电缆过程的影响。结果发现功率为300 W的电弧火源能够在10 s内引燃1 kV聚氯乙烯护套电力电缆,电缆引燃后最高温度达900℃。随着电弧火源功率增大,电弧引燃电缆时间显著减小,并进一步获得了引燃该电力电缆所需的临界电弧功率。运用FDS仿真电弧引燃电缆过程,实验与仿真结果基本一致：当电弧功率从21.93 W减小到7.15 W时,实验点火时间从19 s增加到57 s,仿真点火时间从15.3 s增加到55.9 s;当电弧功率低于7.15 W时,实验和仿真电缆均无法引燃。     

通风状况对乳胶泡沫材料燃烧特性影响

设计小尺寸实验平台,研究不同通风管道风速对乳胶泡沫材料燃烧特性的影响。在不同风速条件下进行实验,获得材料表面温度分布、质量损失速率、火焰高度和火蔓延速率等特性参数。实验结果表明,在管道风速为0,1.5,3,4.5,6 m/s时,平均火焰蔓延速率分别为0.24,0.20,0.23,0.25,0.24 cm/s,最大质量损失速率分别为2.80,2.26,2.65,3.18,3.63 g/s。在有风条件下,随着风速的增加,火焰燃烧过程变得更加剧烈,最大质量损失率变大。实验样品的燃烧过程可以分为3个阶段:初始生长、完全燃烧和熄灭。最大火焰高度发生在燃烧过程的第2阶段,不同管道风速下的最大火焰高度分别为96.39,72.83,90.68,94.96,95.32 cm。     

风-热耦合对建筑外立面火源融合燃烧的影响

针对建筑外立面火源融合燃烧现象,展开了影响受体引燃过程的因素分析和环境风作用下多火源融合时热参数的演化研究,分析了燃烧过程中系统产热能力、温升和引燃时间变化,探明了风-热耦合作用下建筑外立面多火源融合燃烧行为机制。结果表明,风速增大会限制火源融合后外立面火焰燃烧行为,表现在受体引燃时间变长、温度和单位温升值变小,但风速介于1～1.5 m/s时会增强EPS燃烧产热能力,风速为2 m/s左右时有利于受体内部引燃过程;相同风速环境时,对系统EPS燃烧产热能力和受体引燃时间影响为竖向三火源>竖向四火源>竖向双火源,而对单位温升影响最大的则是竖向双/三火源融合,其温度最大影响区间为融合层向上1—2层高度。     

基于桶式环形加热的阻燃电缆细观竖直燃烧特性研究实验平台的设计

针对阻燃电缆等难燃材料,为研究其在外界热源条件下的火灾性能与蔓延燃烧特性,研制了基于环形加热的阻燃电缆细观燃烧特性诊断实验平台。该平台主要包括三个部分,即:半封闭环形桶式加热与燃烧腔室、样品竖直固定模块和数据采集系统。实验参数的标定及典型阻燃电缆受热与燃烧实验结果表明,常规条件下无法点燃的阻燃电缆,当置于实验平台的加热炉内被加热一段时间后,底部小火源可将其点燃并呈现猛烈的燃烧与蔓延过程。该加热模块能够详细、准确地研究各种阻燃电缆在环形加热条件下的膨胀、引燃及蔓延燃烧的细观特性,而不同的加热模式有助于深入研究阻燃材料在各种热环境下的火灾特性,为阻燃材料的引燃机理及火蔓延模型研究提供了必要的研究平台。     

过电流故障铝导线熔痕部位与组织特征关联性研究

为深入研究过电流故障铝导线熔痕部位与组织特征之间的关联关系,本文模拟2.5 mm²BLV铝导线通25～187.5 A电流时的发热、熔断和燃烧过程,研究过电流铝导线发热形变与熔痕形成的内在关联,根据各部位熔痕受热形成过程,分类识别典型组织特征。研究结果表明:随着电流值升高,铝导线先后出现线芯发热、绝缘热解、熔断拉弧、绝缘燃烧、重力折断等现象,发生熔断拉弧的临界电流值位于[71.5,73)A区间内;重力折断痕迹和导线本体组织受线芯发热和绝缘燃烧的共同影响,组织为粗大的块状晶,折断点为锯齿状寸断痕迹;熔断电弧熔痕为高温电弧作用于熔化金属后凝固形成,呈树枝状、纤维状铸态组织,分区分布,孔洞较少,表现为圆珠状、钝头状、尖头型、弯折状、牵拉状等5种典型形貌。通过建立熔痕部位与组织特征的关联,增加故障判断证据维度,为准确识别铝导线发生过电流故障及溯源起火过程提供数据支持。     

不同倾角铜铟镓硒光伏组件燃烧行为的试验研究

为加强对于光伏组件火灾危险性的控制，进一步推动光伏建筑一体化技术的广泛应用，选择不同倾角布置的铜铟镓硒光伏组件为研究对象，改变倾斜角度，通过对引燃时间、火蔓延速度和质量损失速率等参数的测试和分析，研究铜铟镓硒光伏组件的燃烧行为及传热机制。结果表明，倾角的增大加剧了光伏组件火灾蔓延的危险性。光伏组件迎火面的引燃时间随倾角增大呈先减小后增大的变化趋势，倾角从0°增加到45°,引燃时间减少16.39%;倾角从45°增加到90°,引燃时间增加76.47%。背火面向上火蔓延速度随倾角增大而增大，倾角为90°时最大，为18.08 mm/s,横向火蔓延速度受倾角影响较小，均为1 mm/s左右；当光伏组件倾角增加，燃烧产生的熔融滴落物形成池火是造成光伏组件火灾危险性加剧的重要原因。     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.     

HAZOP结合What-if方法在某延迟焦化装置除焦中的应用

为克服传统危险与可操作性（HAZOP）定性分析方法在复杂操作、间歇作业等过程中使用的局限性,提出在传统HAZOP定性分析方法的基础上结合What-if（故障假设）方法,对人的不安全行为和操作规程不完备所导致的风险后果分析作出补充。详细说明其技术原理、工作流程等使用细节,系统阐述该方法与传统HAZOP定性分析方法的区别,并在某延迟焦化装置的除焦操作的风险分析中应用。经分析,识别出在“给水-泡焦”节点,有“操作规程错误”场景2项,“操作规程不具体”场景1项,不存在“操作人员未按操作规程执行”场景。研究结果表明:本文方法有效且具有较好效果,可以广泛应用于操作规程/作业指导书审查、作业过程隐患排查等方面,帮助企业开展操作层面的风险识别与管理,提升企业的生产安全水平。     

Nighttime pedestrian fatalities: A comprehensive examination of infrastructure,user, vehicle,and situational factors

Introduction: Pedestrian fatalities in the United States increased 45.5% between 2009 and 2017. More than 85% of those additional pedestrian fatalities occurred at night. Method: We examine Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for fatal pedestrian crashes that occurred in the dark between 2002 and 2017. Within-variable and before/after examinations of crashes in terms of infrastructure, user, vehicle, and situational characteristics are performed with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and two-sample t-tests. We model changes in crash characteristic proportions between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017 using linear regressions and test for autocorrelation with Breusch-Godfrey tests. Results: The increase in fatal nighttime pedestrian crashes is most strongly correlated with infrastructure factors: non-intersection unmarked locations (saw 80.8% of additional fatalities); 40–45 mph roads (54.6%); five-lane roads (40.7%); urban (99.7%); and arterials (81.1%). In addition, SUVs were involved in 39.7% of additional fatalities, overrepresenting their share of the fleet. Increased pedestrian alcohol and drug involvement warrant further investigation. The age of pedestrians killed increased more (18.1%) than the national average (3.2%). Conclusions: By identifying factors related to the increase in nighttime pedestrian fatalities, this work constitutes a vital first step in making our streets safer for pedestrians. Practical Applications: More research is needed to understand the efficacy of different solutions, but this paper provides guidance for such future research. Engineering solutions such as road diets or traffic calming may be used to improve identified infrastructure issues by reducing vehicle speeds and road widths. Rethinking vehicle design, especially high front profiles, may improve vehicle issues. However, the problems giving rise to these pedestrian fatalities are likely a result of not only engineering issues but also interrelated social and political factors. Solutions may be correspondingly comprehensive, employing non-linear, systems-based approaches such as Safe Systems.     

潞安矿区煤层渗透率的各向异性特征实验研究

为了研究原位煤体渗透性的各向异性特征,以山西潞安常村矿3号煤层圆柱试样为对象,利用TCQT-Ⅲ型低渗煤层气相驱替增产试验装置,对煤样进行加载,并以氮气注入压力2.0 MPa的条件下,分析垂直层理和平行层理2个方向的煤体变形和渗透率变化特征。实验结果表明:煤样在加载过程中,平行和垂直层理煤样渗透率均随着有效应力的增大而减小,平行层理方向的渗透率始终大于垂直层理方向,应力加载初期渗透率急剧下降,最后逐渐趋于平缓;径向应变的增加量与渗透率呈正相关性,且平行层理相关性大于垂直层理;沿平行层理方向的裂隙度大于沿垂直层理方向,沿垂直层理方向的应变量大于沿平行层理方向;应变增加量均随有效应力的增加而逐渐减小。研究结果可为煤层井网布置及优化提供参考。     

森林地表火蔓延模拟方法及其计算机实现

进行了森林火蔓延的研究,对传统的经验公式和模型进行改进,明显发现改进的模型有更好的结果,用计算机巧妙准确地实现了模拟模型,在风力不是特别大,地形变化不是特别剧烈时,该模型有较高精度;并结合火蔓延的主要因素（气象因子、气候、地形等）,进行系统分析,写出算地,编制实现地表火蔓延的预测预报计算机系统软件。这对于有效的组织扑救、减少火灾损失、计算森林火灾的损失评估有重要意义。     

Footedness and Mounting—Short Review and Two Case Studies

Footedness is a personal quality like handedness. Footedness may be associated with moving ability during mounting, dismounting, and jumping movements. Occupational accidents have occurred during movement at different working levels, during the use of access and exit systems, and during the mounting of vehicles. Aging can also affect accident risk and body laterality. For example, falling accidents on stairs are common among the elderly. One reason for accidents may be that the structure of the access system or stair system is unsuitable for individual moving patterns depending partly on body laterality. Footedness and the way the feet are used may be contradictory to the demands of the moving situation, especially during uncommon or rapid situations. This contradiction may trigger disturbance during moving. The aims of this pilot study were (a) to review the literature briefly and (b) to describe the use of the dominant and nondominant foot by farmers and the elderly when mounting a tractor and stairs, respectively. The study also gives ideas for future studies based on both (a) and (b).     

AHP与GA-SVM耦合模型在滑坡预警中的应用*

为了减少滑坡造成的损失,提高滑坡预测的准确性,通过搭建灾害模拟平台获得滑坡的实验数据,在获得多组模拟实验数据后,分析各变量的特性。首先,通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)算法,对滑坡进行危险度划分;然后,通过支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)建立模型,遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)再优化SVM参数,提出1种层次分析法与GA-SVM相耦合的模型。研究结果表明:AHP方法划分后的数据,通过GA与SVM结合建立的模型精度较好,实验预测结果与实际结果较为吻合,与单一SVM相比,精度更高,结果更好,更加适用于多变量的复杂非线性滑坡预警。     

Debunking the false dichotomy of leadership idealism and pragmatism: Critical evaluation and support of newer genre leadership theories

Leadership theories have shifted over the last few decades from a focus on managerial functions and economic leader–follower exchanges toward greater focus on the interpersonal dynamics occurring within the leadership process. Theories such as transformational, ethical, authentic, and other “newer genre” theories were created to address neglected topics such as leader vision and inspirational messages, transparency, emotional effects, morality, individualized attention, and intellectual stimulation. Critiques of these theories, however, have been raised. In this paper, we address five of those critiques and argue for the validity and practical effectiveness of the new genre theories. Further, we describe how newer genre leadership research should be viewed as a performative epistemology, entailing a process of co‐creation involving scholars and practitioners. Finally, from this view, we provide general ideas for leader development. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

公路隧道火灾逃生疏散研究

以苍岭隧道为背景,首先采用经验计算理论和计算软件building EXODUS相结合的方式,从被困人员的安全疏散时间、高温烟气的影响、隧道横通道的利用率以及人员的疏散行为特性进行了研究。结果表明:中小规模火灾情况下的安全疏散时间控制在8 min之内,高温烟气影响不大,但横通道的利用率不平均,且人员疏散路线相对集中。然后对存在的逃生疏散问题提出针对性建议以及其他相关建议,旨在为更大程度降低事故的严重性和经济财产损失。