Proportionate and disproportionate policy responses to climate change: core concepts and empirical applications

A fresh perspective on policy-making and planning has emerged which views disproportionate policy as an intentional policy response. A disproportionate policy response is understood to be a lack of ‘fit’ or balance between the costs of a public policy and the benefits that are derived from this policy, and between policy ends and means. This paper applies this new perspective on the proportionality of policy-making to the area of climate change. The first part of the paper discusses the underlying causes of disproportionate policy responses in broad terms and then applies the theoretical reasoning to understand the conditions in which they are likely to appear in relation to climate change. These conditions are hypothesized to relate to four main factors: economic considerations; levels of public demand; focusing events; and strategic considerations. It concludes with the suggestion that societal actors may be able to manipulate these four factors to encourage politicians to adopt policies that mitigate climate change more rapidly than is currently the case in most countries.     

Adapting to climate variability: Pumpkins, people and policy

Understanding of how best to support those most vulnerable to climate stress is imperative given expected changes in climate variability. This paper investigates local adaptation strategies to climate variability, focusing on agricultural decision‐making in a communal irrigation scheme in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Research done through interviews, surveys and participatory methods demonstrates that adaptation strategies within a community are socially differentiated and present differing objectives and priorities. These results highlight the need for intervention and policy that support a heterogeneous response to a wide range of stresses. Evidence for climate change is clear and the need for adaptation is urgent. However, adaptation measures have to be sensitively integrated with ongoing development pathways to ensure they are sustainable and relevant to local priorities.     

Protecting endangered species under future climate change: From single-species preservation to an anticipatory policy approach

Anthropogenic climate climate change presents a unique challenge for endangered species policy and an opportunity for policy makers to develop a more predictive and robust approach to preserving the nation's biological resources. Biological and ecological reactions to shifting climate conditions and the potential feedbacks and synergistic effects of such changes may threaten the well-being of many species, particularly of those already in jeopardy of extinction. The United States Endangered Species Act of 1973 will fail to keep pace with increasing numbers of species needing protection as long as it remains focused on protecting species individually. The actmust not be abandoned, however; it holds tremendous promise for preserving biological diversity through a more proactive, anticipatory perspective. The current Endangered Species Act should be reinforced and improved by better integration of scientific expertise into habitat and community preservation listing decisions and recovery plan devlopment. Given the uncertainties surrounding long-term environmental consequences of human activities and resource use, a longer-term perspective must be integrated into all efforts to protect our biotic resources. Under appointment from the Graduate Fellowships for Global Change administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Ecducation for the US Department of Energy.     

Behavioural responses to climate change: Asymmetry of intentions and impacts

In seeking to determine whether climate change mitigation strategies are effective, researchers and policy-makers typically use energy consumption as an indicator. UK government data show that energy use amongst the public is rising, despite measures to encourage energy conservation. Yet, research to date has not explicitly asked which actions the public are taking with the express intention of mitigating climate change. Using Stern's classification of impact-oriented and intent-oriented behaviour research, the research described in this paper examines both actions taken ‘out of concern for climate change’ and energy conservation practices amongst the UK public. The findings show a clear divergence between actions prescribed by policy-makers (i.e. energy conservation) and those taken by the public to mitigate climate change (e.g., recycling). Furthermore, those who take action to conserve energy generally do so for reasons unconnected to the environment (e.g., to save money). Regression analyses highlight the distinct determinants of these two behavioural categories. These findings imply that surveys using energy reduction as an indicator of public response to climate change falsely assume that these can be equated; consequently, they will provide a distorted picture of behavioural response. Possible reasons for the asymmetry of intentions and impacts, and policy implications, are discussed.     

Over-reaction and under-reaction in climate policy: an institutional analysis

In what circumstances do organizations react to changes in their operating environment by adopting proportionate policy responses? And drawing on institutional theory, what expectations can we formulate in relation to the proportionality of policy responses to climate change? These two research questions frame this article, which seeks to make new connections between the emerging perspective of proportionality in policy-making and existing institutional theories. We find that institutional theories are well suited to formulating expectations concerning the (dis)proportionality of policy responses, but their explanatory power can be further improved by taking the characteristics of specific climate policy problems into account. While there are many different problems nested in the ‘meta’ problem of climate change, we find that most of them have characteristics which suggest that policy under-reactions are more, not less likely. Amongst institutional theories, rational choice institutionalism provides the clearest expectation that proportionate policy responses are unlikely. Policy entrepreneurship is identified as one obvious way in which to stimulate proportionate policy responses, through fostering new ways of thinking within organizations.     

From climate change impacts to adaptation: A development perspective for India

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio‐economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less‐GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change.     

Objectives of public economic policy and the adaptation to climate change

Much can be learned about adaptation by applying structures and methodologies already used in other research fields. This study employs a public economic policy approach to investigate how – or if at all – adaptation should be supported by the public sector. Three different fields of adaptation activity are identified which are especially relevant for government intervention and the study proposes ways in which government intervention could be conducted. The analysis takes into account that developing regions are particularly vulnerable and they have insufficient funds to adequately adapt to climate change.     

Ecological indicators of global climate change: A research framework

Large-scale environmental research efforts are conducted under frameworks that provide a common basis for evaluating research in many diverse fields. Such frameworks should be subjected to critical review to determine if they meet crucial expectations. In the case of the US Global Change Research Program, we perceive that most research follows a framework that we define as the predictive model framework. We believe this framework is insufficient for resolving the unprecedented predicaments posed by global change. We recommend a complementary framework, the system response framework, which directs research toward useful indicators of change rather than precise predictions. We further argue that, even if research is complementary and effective under the two frameworks, conclusive results prior to decisions should not be expected. The burden of proof must itself be a continuing topic of open discourse and inquiry.     

Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin,NE-Spain

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable.     

Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.     

Comparative assessment of vulnerability of smallholder livestock farmers to climate change in North-West Ghana

ABSTRACT

This study examined the vulnerability of smallholder livestock farmers in North-West Ghana to climate change using data obtained from 200 livestock farmers obtained through the administration of a semi-structured questionnaire. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) approach was used to examine the levels of vulnerability. The study compared the vulnerability between the Nandom district and the Lawra district. The empirical results revealed that livestock farmers are more vulnerable to climatic extremes in the Nandom district than the Lawra district. The study highlights the critical role of the government regarding education and construction of water resources, among others.     

Landscape change: Perceptions and physical measures

This paper addresses questions of affective responses of residents of rural Arizona to changes in proximate community and riparian landscapes and the congruence of their perceptions of change with physical measures of change in those landscapes. Based on findings and concepts from previous studies, perceptions of change were assessed using a mail survey. Physical measures of land use and vegetation change were obtained from aerial photography for two points in time spanning approximately 13 years and were analyzed using a geographic information system. Significant differences were found in perceptions of change in the community and riparian landscapes. In contrast with previous findings, a majority of respondents found the changes as either improving or having no effect on landscape quality. Those who were more frequent users of the riparian landscape tended to be more aware of changes in it. The findings also suggest challenges for planners and resource managers working in rural areas adjacent to riparian landscapes.     

Environment and development in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Linking climate change with sustainable fisheries development

The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a major custodian of one of the ocean's major natural resources: tuna. The commercial tuna fisheries sector is the most important economic sector in the RMI and is thus a substantial contributor to this tiny island nation's GDP. Tuna catch and its associated revenues has fluctuated in line with climatic events such as the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, in the last decade, national fisheries development policies have begun to capitalize on the positive effects that ENSO warm events have had on the tuna populations. However, global warming is expected to have a significant impact on ENSO, and not necessarily in positive ways. This paper will focus on the relationship between environment and economic development in the RMI fisheries sector. In particular, the linkages between global warming and its effects on the tuna fisheries sector must be better understood and uncertainties accounted for so that impacts are appropriately addressed and integrated into sustainable fisheries development policies. Conclusions reached are that new fisheries development strategies that emphasize environmental‐based planning are required. The emerging ecosystem‐based approach to fisheries management is a start, as are the various international initiatives in furthering our understanding of the linkages between climate and ocean systems currently underway.     

Think global,act local: The effect of goal and mindset specificity on willingness to donate to an environmental organization

This paper investigated the effect of goal and mindset specificity on goal-related behavior in the environmental domain. Two studies demonstrated that goal-related behavior was maximized when participants focused on an abstract goal in combination with a specific mindset, or when they focused on a specific goal in combination with an abstract mindset. When goals and mindsets instead matched in terms of abstractness, goal-related behavior was reduced. Study 2 demonstrated that the effect of goal specificity on behavior was mediated by different processes in each of the mindset conditions. When mindsets were abstract, self-efficacy mediated the positive effect of specific goals on behavior; when mindsets were specific, the value of collective environmental action mediated the positive effect of abstract goals on behavior. The results are discussed in the framework of a complementarity approach. It is argued that complementarity of levels of specificity of goals and mindsets may affect behavior particularly strongly in domains where the discrepancy between the abstract and the specific is large (e.g. the environmental domain).     

Reducing climate change gas emissions by cutting out stages in the life cycle of office paper

The paper industry's climate change gas emissions are growing. This article considers how to reduce emissions from cut-size office paper by bypassing stages in its life cycle. The options considered are: incineration, which cuts out landfill; localisation, which cuts out transport; annual fibre, which cuts out forestry and reduces pulping; fibre recycling, which cuts out landfill, forestry and pulping; un-printing, which cuts out all stages except printing; electronic-paper, which cuts out all stages. Un-printing may offer the greatest climate change emission reduction. There are uncertainties in this result, particularly in estimating the proportion of waste office paper would be suitable for un-printing.     

Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies

Climate change can increase societies’ propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.g., resource scarcity, migration). We propose an additional, subtle, and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e.g., criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e.g., judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation. We discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change.     

The effect of intergroup comparison on willingness to perform sustainable behavior

The present research examines the effects of intergroup comparison on willingness to perform sustainable behavior. In Experiment 1, university students compared current students with past or future students, and then completed measures of willingness to perform sustainable behavior. Participants who compared to past students reported more willingness to perform sustainable behavior than those who compared to future students. In Experiment 2, university students again compared current students with past or future students and completed measures of sustainable beliefs and willingness to perform sustainable behavior. Participants who compared to past students reported more willingness to perform sustainable behavior than those who compared to future students. This effect was mediated by strengthened sustainable beliefs. The results show that intergroup comparison can be strategically employed to promote motivation to perform sustainable behavior.     

Moving from agenda to action: evaluating local climate change action plans

Climate change is conventionally recognised as a large-scale issue resolved through regional or national policy initiatives. However, little research has been done to directly evaluate local climate change action plans. This study examines 40 recently adopted local climate change action plans in the US and analyses how well they recognise the concepts of climate change and prepare for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The results indicate that local climate change action plans have a high level of ‘awareness’, moderate ‘analysis capabilities’ for climate change, and relatively limited ‘action approaches’ for climate change mitigation. The study also identifies specific factors influencing the quality of these local jurisdictional plans. Finally, it provides policy recommendations to improve planning for climate change at the local level.     

Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis

This paper examines the impact of climate change on the decision of farmers to engage or not to engage in livestock activities and also on the choice of different livestock species in Kenya. To this end, cross‐sectional household level data supplemented by long‐term averages of climate data are used. The probit model is employed to derive the response of the probability of engaging in livestock activities to climate change. Probit and multivariate probit methods are employed to model the choice of different livestock species. Atmosphere–ocean global circulation models are used to project the impact of different climate scenarios on the probability of engaging in livestock activities and also of adopting different livestock species according to variations in climate. The results suggest that farmers adapt livestock management decisions to climate change. At low levels of temperature increase, the probability of engaging in livestock activities falls, but at higher levels of climate change, the probability rises. The results further show that as it gets hotter, farmers change their livestock choices from dairy cattle and sheep to beef cattle and goats.     

Government response to climate change in China: a study of provincial and municipal plans

In this paper, we provide an overview of local and regional climate change plans in China by scrutinizing planning documents from 16 cities, four autonomous regions, and 22 provinces. We develop and apply an evaluation protocol to understand goals, process, and strategies in these plans. We also conduct interviews with government officials to provide a context for subnational climate change planning. The results indicate that current climate change planning in China is characterized by the ‘top-down’ approach, in which the central governmental incentives play a vital role in shaping provincial and municipal plans. In addition, most plans have the following issues: vague definition of what characterizes a low-carbon city/region; deficiency in the quality of greenhouse gas inventory and reduction targets; insufficient strategies provided to respond to climate change; inadequate stakeholder engagement; and weak horizontal coordination. Finally, we offer recommendations to improve climate change planning in China.