Development and Application of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Model

The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model simulates the Chesapeake watershed land use, river flows, and the associated transport and fate of nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay. The Phase 5.3 Model is the most recent of a series of increasingly refined versions of a model that have been operational for more than two decades. The Phase 5.3 Model, in conjunction with models of the Chesapeake airshed and estuary, provides estimates of management actions needed to protect water quality, achieve Chesapeake water quality standards, and restore living resources. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model tracks nutrient and sediment load estimates of the entire 166,000 km² watershed, including loads from all six watershed states. The creation of software systems, input datasets, and calibration methods were important aspects of the model development process. A community model approach was taken with model development and application, and the model was developed by a broad coalition of model practitioners including environmental engineers, scientists, and environmental managers. Among the users of the Phase 5.3 Model are the Chesapeake watershed states and local governments, consultants, river basin commissions, and universities. Development and application of the model are described, as well as key scenarios ranging from high nutrient and sediment load conditions if no management actions were taken in the watershed, to low load estimates of an all‐forested condition.     

Long‐Term Trends of Nutrients and Sediment from the Nontidal Chesapeake Watershed: An Assessment of Progress by River and Season

To assess historical loads of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) from the nontidal Chesapeake Bay watershed (NTCBW), we analyzed decadal seasonal trends of flow‐normalized loads at the fall‐line of nine major rivers that account for >90% of NTCBW flow. Evaluations of loads by season revealed N, P, and SS load magnitudes have been highest in January‐March and lowest in July‐September, but the temporal trends have followed similar decadal‐scale patterns in all seasons, with notable exceptions. Generally, total N (TN) load has dropped since the late 1980s, but particulate nutrients and SS have risen since the mid‐1990s. The majority of these rises were from Susquehanna River and relate to diminished net trapping at the Conowingo Reservoir. Substantial rises in SS were also observed, however, in other rivers. Moreover, the summed rise in particulate P load from other rivers is of similar magnitude as from Susquehanna. Dissolved nutrient loads have dropped in the upland (Piedmont and above) rivers, but risen in two small rivers in the Coastal Plain affected by lagged groundwater input. In addition, analysis of fractional contributions revealed consistent N trends across the upland watersheds. Finally, total N:total P ratios have declined in most rivers, suggesting the potential for changes in nutrient limitation. Overall, this integrated study of historical data highlights the value of maintaining long‐term monitoring at multiple watershed locations.     

Assessing the Impacts of E. coli Laden Streambed Sediment on E. coli Loads over a Range of Flows and Sediment Characteristics

Understanding sediment Escherichia coli levels (i.e., pathogen indicators) and their contribution to the water column during resuspension is critical for predicting in‐stream E. coli levels and the potential risk to human health. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's current water quality testing strategies, however, rely on water borne E. coli concentrations to assess stream E. coli levels and identify impaired waters. In this work, we conducted a scenario analysis using a range of flows, sediment/water bacteria fractions, and particle sizes to which E. coli attach to assess the impact of E. coli in streambed sediments on water column E. coli levels. We used simple sediment transport theory to calculate the potential total E. coli concentrations in a stream with and without the resuspension process. Results clearly indicate that inclusion of resuspending sediment attached E. coli is necessary for watershed assessments and data on sediment attached E. coli concentrations is much needed. When neglecting the streambed sediment E. coli concentrations, the model predicted average E. coli loads of 10⁷ Colony Forming Units (CFU)/s; however, when streambed sediment E. coli concentrations were included in the model, the predictions ranged from 10¹⁰ to 10¹⁴ CFU/s. To evaluate the predictions, E. coli data in the streambed sediment and the water column were monitored in Squaw Creek, Iowa. Comparisons between measured and predicted E. coli loads yielded an R²‐value of 0.85.     

Quantifying Reductions of Mass‐Failure Frequency and Sediment Loadings From Streambanks Using Toe Protection and Other Means: Lake Tahoe,United States1

Abstract: Streambank erosion by mass‐failure processes represents an important form of channel adjustment and a significant source of sediment in disturbed streams. Mass failures regularly occur by a combination of hydraulic processes that undercut bank toes and geotechnical processes that cause bank collapse by gravity. Little if any quantitative information is available on the effectiveness of bank treatments on reducing erosion. To evaluate potential reduction in sediment loadings emanating from streambanks, the hydraulic and geotechnical processes responsible for mass failure were simulated under existing and mitigated conditions using a Bank‐Stability and Toe‐Erosion Model (BSTEM). Two critical erosion sites were selected from each of the three watersheds known to contribute the greatest amounts of fine sediment by streambank processes in the Lake Tahoe Basin. A typical high‐flow annual hydrograph was selected for analysis. Bank‐material strength data were collected for each layer as were species‐specific root‐reinforcement values. The effects of the first flow event on bank‐toe erosion were simulated using an excess shear‐stress approach. The resulting geometry was then exported into the bank‐stability submodel to test for the relative stability of the bank under peak flow and drawdown conditions. In this way, BSTEM was used iteratively for all flow events for both existing and mitigated conditions. On average, 13.6% of the material was eroded by hydraulic shear, the remainder by mass failures, which occurred about five times over the simulation period. Simulations with 1.0 m‐high rock‐toe protection showed a dramatic reduction in streambank erosion (69‐100%). Failure frequency for the simulation period was reduced in most cases to a single episode. Thus, an almost 90% reduction in streambank loadings was achieved by virtually eliminating the erosion of only 14% of the material that was entrained by hydraulic forces. Consequently, simulations show average load reductions of about an order of magnitude. Results stress the critical importance of protecting the bank toe‐region from steepening by hydraulic forces that would otherwise entrain previously failed and in situ bank materials, thereby allowing the upper bank to flatten (by failure) to a stable slope.     

Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation

Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were established to augment nutrient allocations supporting the submerged aquatic vegetation resource. From the initial introduction of nutrient allocations in 1992 to the present, the allocations have become more completely applied to all areas and loads in the watershed and have also become more rigorously assessed and tracked. The latest 2010 application of nutrient and sediment allocations were made as part of the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load and covered all six states of the Chesapeake watershed. A quantitative allocation process was developed that applied principles of equity and efficiency in the watershed, while achieving all tidal water quality standards through an assessment of equitable levels of effort in reducing nutrients and sediments. The level of effort was determined through application of two key watershed scenarios: one where no action was taken in nutrient control and one where maximum nutrient control efforts were applied. Once the level of effort was determined for different jurisdictions, the overall load reduction was set watershed‐wide to achieve dissolved oxygen water quality standards. Further adjustments were made to the allocation to achieve the James River chlorophyll‐a standard.     

Regional Blue and Green Water Balances and Use by Selected Crops in the U.S.

The availability of freshwater is a prerequisite for municipal development and agricultural production, especially in the arid and semiarid portions of the western United States (U.S.). Agriculture is the leading user of water in the U.S. Agricultural water use can be partitioned into green (derived from rainfall) and blue water (irrigation). Blue water can be further subdivided by source. In this research, we develop a hydrologic balance by 8‐Digit Hydrologic Unit Code using a combination of Soil and Water Assessment Tool simulations and available human water use estimates. These data are used to partition agricultural groundwater usage by sustainability and surface water usage by local source or importation. These predictions coupled with reported agricultural yield data are used to predict the virtual water contained in each ton of corn, wheat, sorghum, and soybeans produced and its source. We estimate that these four crops consume 480 km³ of green water annually and 23 km³ of blue water, 12 km³ of which is from groundwater withdrawal. Regional trends in blue water use from groundwater depletion highlight heavy usage in the High Plains, and small pockets throughout the western U.S. This information is presented to inform water resources debate by estimating the cost of agricultural production in terms of water regionally. This research illustrates the variable water content of the crops we consume and export, and the source of that water.     

Implications of Conceptual Channel Representation on SWAT Streamflow and Sediment Modeling

Hydrologic modeling outputs are influenced by how a watershed system is represented. Channel routing is a typical example of the mathematical conceptualization of watershed landscape and processes in hydrologic modeling. We investigated the sensitivity of accuracy, equifinality, and uncertainty of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling to channel dimensions to demonstrate how a conceptual representation of a watershed system affects streamflow and sediment modeling. Results showed the amount of uncertainty and equifinality strongly responded to channel dimensions. On the other hand, the model performance did not significantly vary with the changes in the channel representation due to the degree of freedom allowed by the conceptual nature of hydrologic modeling in the parameter calibration. Such findings demonstrated good modeling performance statistics do not necessarily mean small output uncertainty, and partial improvements in the watershed representation may neither increase modeling accuracy nor reduce uncertainty. We also showed the equifinality and uncertainty of hydrologic modeling are case‐dependent rather than specific to models or regions, suggesting great caution should be used when attempting to transfer uncertainty analysis results to other modeling studies, especially for ungauged watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Evaluation of SWAT Impoundment Modeling Methods in Water and Sediment Simulations

Worldwide studies show 80%–90% of all sediments eroded from watersheds is trapped within river networks such as reservoirs, ponds, and wetlands. To represent the impact of impoundments on sediment routing in watershed modeling, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) developers recommend to model reservoirs, ponds, and wetlands using impoundment tools (ITs). This study evaluates performance of SWAT ITs in the modeling of a small, agricultural watershed dominated by lakes and wetlands. The study demonstrates how to incorporate impoundments into the SWAT model, and discusses and evaluates involved parameters. The study then recommends an appropriate calibration sequence, i.e., landscape parameters calibration, followed by pond/wetlands calibration, then channel parameter calibrations, and lastly, reservoir parameter calibration. Results of this study demonstrate not following SWAT recommendation regarding modeling water land use as an impoundment depreciates SWAT performance, and may lead to misplaced calibration efforts and model over‐calibration. Further, the chosen method to model impoundments’ outflow significantly impacts sediment loads in the watershed, while streamflow simulation is not very sensitive. This study also allowed calculation of mass accumulation rates in modeled impoundments where the annual mass accumulation rate in wetlands (2.3 T/ha/yr) was 39% higher than mass accumulation rate in reservoirs (1.4 T/ha/yr).     

HYSTAR Sediment Model: Distributed Two‐Dimensional Simulation of Watershed Erosion and Sediment Transport Using Time‐Area Routing

An erosion and sediment transport component incorporated in the HYdrology Simulation using Time‐ARea method (HYSTAR) upland watershed model provides grid‐based prediction of erosion, transport and deposition of sediment in a dynamic, continuous, and fully distributed framework. The model represents the spatiotemporally varied flow in sediment transport simulation by coupling the time‐area routing method and sediment transport capacity approach within a grid‐based spatial data model. This avoids the common, and simplistic, approach of using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) to estimate erosion rates with a delivery ratio to relate gross soil erosion to sediment yield of a watershed, while enabling us to simulate two‐dimensional sediment transport processes without the complexity of numerical solution of the partial differential governing equations. In using the time‐area method for routing sediment, the model offers a novel alternative to watershed‐scale sediment transport simulation that provides detailed spatial representation. In predicting four‐year sediment hydrographs of a watershed in Virginia, the model provided good performance with R² of 0.82 and 0.78 and relative error of ?35% and 11% using the Yalin and Yang's sediment transport capacity equations, respectively. Prediction of spatiotemporal variation in sediment transport processes was evaluated using maps of sediment transport rates, concentrations, and erosion and deposition mass, which compare well with expected behavior of flow hydraulics and sediment transport processes.     

Geospatial and Temporal Analysis of a 20‐Year Record of Landsat‐Based Water Clarity in Minnesota's 10,000 Lakes

A large 20‐year database on water clarity for all Minnesota lakes ≥8 ha was analyzed statistically for spatial distributions, temporal trends, and relationships with in‐lake and watershed factors that potentially affect lake clarity. The database includes Landsat‐based water clarity estimates expressed in terms of Secchi depth (SD_Landsat), an integrative measure of water quality, for more than 10,500 lakes for time periods centered around 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005. Minnesota lake clarity is lower (more turbid) in the south and southwest and clearer in the north and northeast; this pattern is evident at the levels of individual lakes and ecoregions. Temporal trends in clarity were detected in ~11% of the lakes: 4.6% had improving clarity and 6.2% had decreasing clarity. Ecoregions in southern and western Minnesota, where agriculture is the predominant land use, had higher percentages of lakes with decreasing clarity than the rest of the state, and small and shallow lakes had higher percentages of decreasing clarity trends than large and deep lakes. The mean SD_Landsat statewide remained stable from 1985 to 2005 but decreased in ecoregions dominated by agricultural land use. Deep lakes had higher clarity than shallow lakes statewide and for lakes grouped by land cover. SD_Landsat decreased as the percentage of agriculture and/or urban area increased at county and catchment levels and it increased with increasing forested land.     

Modeling Changes to Streamflow,Sediment, and Nutrient Loading from Land Use Changes Due to Potential Natural Gas Development

Natural gas development using hydraulic fracturing has many potential environmental impacts, but among the most certain is the land disturbance required to build the well pads and other infrastructure required to drill and extract the gas. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to investigate how natural gas development could impact streamflow and sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorous (TP) loadings in the upper Delaware River Basin (DRB), a relatively undeveloped watershed of 7,950 km² that lies above the Marcellus Shale formation. If gas development was permitted, our projections show the DRB could experience development of over 600 well pads to extract natural gas at build out, which, with supporting infrastructure (roads, gathering pipelines), could convert over 5,000 ha from existing land uses in the study area. In subbasins with development activity we found sediment, TN, and TP yields could increase by an average of 15, 0.08, and 0.03 kg/ha/yr, respectively (an increase of 2, 3, and 15%, respectively) for each one percent of subbasin land area converted into natural gas infrastructure. At the study area outlet on the Delaware River at Port Jervis, New York, we found increases in the annual average streamflow and sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loads of up to 0.01, 0.2, 0.2, and 1%, respectively, for a rapid development year, and 0.08, 1.3, 2.0, and 11%, respectively, for the full development scenario. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

胶州湾水质及主要营养盐季节性变化分析

于2010年4个季度对胶州湾水质进行了调查,根据单因子污染指数法,利用计算机软件绘制了水质分区图,分析了胶州湾水质的最新状况及不同季节的水质变化情况,同时对胶州湾主要营养盐无机氮和活性磷酸盐的变化进行了分析。调查结果显示,2010年胶州湾水质定性评价为差,无机氮和活性磷酸盐的平均浓度分别为0.393 mg/L、0.018 mg/L,高值区主要分布在胶州湾东北角,无机氮和活性磷酸盐的平均浓度及空间分布随着季节的变化而呈现了一定的变化。     

Glyphosate and Its Degradation Product AMPA Occur Frequently and Widely in U.S. Soils,Surface Water,Groundwater, and Precipitation

Glyphosate use in the United States increased from less than 5,000 to more than 80,000 metric tons/yr between 1987 and 2007. Glyphosate is popular due to its ease of use on soybean, cotton, and corn crops that are genetically modified to tolerate it, utility in no‐till farming practices, utility in urban areas, and the perception that it has low toxicity and little mobility in the environment. This compilation is the largest and most comprehensive assessment of the environmental occurrence of glyphosate and aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) in the United States conducted to date, summarizing the results of 3,732 water and sediment and 1,018 quality assurance samples collected between 2001 and 2010 from 38 states. Results indicate that glyphosate and AMPA are usually detected together, mobile, and occur widely in the environment. Glyphosate was detected without AMPA in only 2.3% of samples, whereas AMPA was detected without glyphosate in 17.9% of samples. Glyphosate and AMPA were detected frequently in soils and sediment, ditches and drains, precipitation, rivers, and streams; and less frequently in lakes, ponds, and wetlands; soil water; and groundwater. Concentrations of glyphosate were below the levels of concern for humans or wildlife; however, pesticides are often detected in mixtures. Ecosystem effects of chronic low‐level exposures to pesticide mixtures are uncertain. The environmental health risk of low‐level detections of glyphosate, AMPA, and associated adjuvants and mixtures remain to be determined.     

Uncertainty Models for Estimates of Physical Characteristics of River Segments Over Large Areas

Spatially comprehensive estimates of the physical characteristics of river segments over large areas are required in many large‐scale analyses of river systems and for the management of multiple basins. Remote sensing and modeling are often used to estimate river characteristics over large areas, but the uncertainties associated with these estimates and their dependence on the physical characteristics of the segments and their catchments are seldom quantified. Using test data with varying degrees of independence, we derived analytical models of the uncertainty associated with estimates of upstream catchment area (CA), segment slope, and mean annual discharge for all river segments of a digital representation of the hydrographic network of France. Although there were strong relationships between our test data and estimates at the scale of France, there were also large relative local uncertainties, which varied with the physical characteristics of the segments and their catchments. Discharge and CA were relatively uncertain where discharge was low and catchments were small. Discharge uncertainty also increased in catchments with large rainfall events and low minimum temperature. The uncertainty of segment slope was strongly related to segment length. Our uncertainty models were consistent across large regions of France, suggesting some degree of generality. Their analytical formulation should facilitate their use in large‐scale ecological studies and simulation models.     

Influences of Water and Sediment Quality and Hydrologic Processes on Mussels in the Clinch River

Segments of the Clinch River in Virginia have experienced declining freshwater mussel populations during the past 40 years, while other segments of the river continue to support some of the richest mussel communities in the country. The close proximity of these contrasting reaches provides a study area where differences in climate, hydrology, and historic mussel distribution are minimal. The USGS conducted a study between 2009 and 2011 to evaluate possible causes of the mussel declines. Evaluation of mussel habitat showed no differences in physical habitat quality, leaving water and sediment quality as possible causes for declines. Three years of continuous water‐quality data showed higher turbidity and specific conductance in the reaches with low‐quality mussel assemblages compared to reaches with high‐quality mussel assemblages. Discrete water‐quality samples showed higher major ions and metals concentrations in the low‐quality reach. Base‐flow samples contained high major ion and metal concentrations coincident to low‐quality mussel populations. These results support a conceptual model of dilution and augmentation where increased concentrations of major ions and other dissolved constituents from mined tributaries result in reaches with declining mussel populations. Tributaries from unmined basins provide water with low concentrations of dissolved constituents, diluting reaches of the Clinch River where high‐quality mussel populations occur.     

上覆水营养盐浓度对底泥氮磷释放的影响

采用校园水体底泥进行上覆水营养盐浓度对底泥释放量之间的关系研究。结果表明,在本实验条件下,上覆水水质影响底泥氮、磷的释放,尤其显著影响氮、磷的初期释放;上覆水氮、磷的浓度越小,底泥氮、磷的释放量越大;上覆水氮、磷的浓度超过一定值,会抑制底泥氮、磷的释放。     

Modeling Megacity Drinking Water Security under a DSS Framework in a Tidal River at the North Pearl River Delta,China

A modeling study was undertaken under a decision support system (DSS) for drinking water security in the Foshan section of the Beijiang River, a typical tidal river in the North Pearl River Delta. The DSS included a database layer, application support layer, and an application layer. As an integral part of the DSS application support layer, an integrated modeling system was developed to simulate hydrodynamics. The balance of dissolved oxygen and toxicants was based on an environmental fluid dynamics code and a water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) modeling framework. Model calibration and validation was undertaken using monitoring data in normal hydrological conditions. Four scenarios for the environmental management of water, including current water temp‐spatial feature analysis, control of pollution sources, and emergency response, were designed and analyzed in the DSS. The results indicated that the tide downstream has a distinct influence on hydrodynamics and pollutant diffusion, and the DSS could be used to design effective schemes to reduce pollutant discharges and provide emergency responses for ensuring drinking water security.     

Impacts of Bakken Shale Oil Development on Regional Water Uses and Supply

The Bakken shale play in western North Dakota is one of the largest unconventional oilfields in the United States, but published research about impacts on the region's water resources is rare. In this study, besides examining North Dakota water management policies and activities, we also analyzed three datasets: the Bakken horizontal well completion data (2008‐2014), North Dakota permitted water consumption data (2000‐2014), and groundwater level and streamflow observations in western North Dakota (2000‐2014). We found from 2008 to 2014, the annual total industrial water uses for Bakken shale oil development ranged between 0.5 and 10% of statewide total consumptive water use. The percentage increases were between 3.0 and 40% within the Bakken oil production region. The increased population of temporary oilfield service workers contributed additional domestic water use, which was equivalent to ~15% of annual industrial water use for the shale oil development in the Bakken. Despite being in a semiarid region, the impact of Bakken development on regional water supply was limited because the water in the Bakken was adaptively managed and the region received on average over 20% more precipitation than normal during 2008‐2014. Of the 15 glaciofluvial aquifers under study, 12 have seen water levels increasing or unchanged and the water levels for the remaining 3 aquifers have decreased.     

Benchmarking Optical/Thermal Satellite Imagery for Estimating Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in Decision Support Tools

Generally, one expects evapotranspiration (ET) maps derived from optical/thermal Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to improve decision support tools and lead to superior decisions regarding water resources management. However, there is lack of supportive evidence to accept or reject this expectation. We “benchmark” three existing hydrologic decision support tools with the following benchmarks: annual ET for the ET Toolbox developed by the United States Bureau of Reclamation, predicted rainfall‐runoff hydrographs for the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the average annual groundwater recharge for the Distributed Parameter Watershed Model used by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates. The conclusion of this benchmark study is that the use of NASA/USGS optical/thermal satellite imagery can considerably improve hydrologic decision support tools compared to their traditional implementations. The benefits of improved decision making, resulting from more accurate results of hydrologic support systems using optical/thermal satellite imagery, should substantially exceed the costs for acquiring such imagery and implementing the remote sensing algorithms. In fact, the value of reduced error in estimating average annual groundwater recharge in the San Gabriel Mountains, California alone, in terms of value of water, may be as large as $1 billion, more than sufficient to pay for one new Landsat satellite.     

Evaluating Hydrologically Connected Surface Water and Groundwater Using a Groundwater Model

Determination of the nature and extent of the connection between groundwater and surface water is of paramount importance to managing water supplies. The development of analyses that detail the surface water‐groundwater system may lead to more effective utilization of available water. A tool was developed to help determine the effects of groundwater and surface water interactions. The software tool includes two graphic user interfaces to allow full compatibility with numerical MODFLOW groundwater models. This case study shows the tool, in conjunction with MODFLOW groundwater models and carefully designed scenarios, can successfully calculate the rates of stream‐groundwater interactions, thereby providing the basis for designating management areas with the most significant hydrologic impact. This tool can be applied in other regions with similar settings and needs for integrated water management.