The Great Lakes Hydrography Dataset: Consistent,Binational Watersheds for the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

Ecosystem‐based management of the Laurentian Great Lakes, which spans both the United States and Canada, is hampered by the lack of consistent binational watersheds for the entire Basin. Using comparable data sources and consistent methods, we developed spatially equivalent watershed boundaries for the binational extent of the Basin to create the Great Lakes Hydrography Dataset (GLHD). The GLHD consists of 5,589 watersheds for the entire Basin, covering a total area of approximately 547,967 km², or about twice the 247,003 km² surface water area of the Great Lakes. The GLHD improves upon existing watershed efforts by delineating watersheds for the entire Basin using consistent methods; enhancing the precision of watershed delineation using recently developed flow direction grids that have been hydrologically enforced and vetted by provincial and federal water resource agencies; and increasing the accuracy of watershed boundaries by enforcing embayments, delineating watersheds on islands, and delineating watersheds for all tributaries draining to connecting channels. In addition, the GLHD is packaged in a publically available geodatabase that includes synthetic stream networks, reach catchments, watershed boundaries, a broad set of attribute data for each tributary, and metadata documenting methodology. The GLHD provides a common set of watersheds and associated hydrography data for the Basin that will enhance binational efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes.     

Capturing LiDAR‐Derived Hydrologic Spatial Parameters to Evaluate Playa Wetlands

The digital elevation model data from traditional stereo photogrammetric methods are inadequate in providing accurate vertical parameters to feed hydrologic models for low‐lying, extremely flat areas. High‐resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data provide the robust capability of capturing small variations in low‐relief playa wetlands. The Rainwater Basin in south‐central Nebraska includes a complex of seasonally shallow playa wetlands that attract millions of migratory waterfowl every spring and fall. This research focuses on the development of a procedure with applicable protocols to produce LiDAR‐derived three‐dimensional wetland maps and to extract the critical surface parameters (i.e., watershed boundaries, flow direction, flow accumulation, and drainage lines) for playa wetlands. The topo‐hydrologic conditions of playa wetlands were evaluated at the watershed level. The results show that in the Rainwater Basin, 70.7% of the historic hydric soil footprints identified in the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database were not functioning as topographically depressional wetlands. This finding was confirmed by a recent five‐year Annual Habit Survey showing that 69.8% of the historic hydric soil footprints did not function during the spring migratory bird seasons between 2004 and 2009. The majority of playa wetlands' topographic conditions have been substantially changed and the SSURGO data cannot fully reflect current topographic reality in the Rainwater Basin.     

Efficient Delineation of Nested Depression Hierarchy in Digital Elevation Models for Hydrological Analysis Using Level‐Set Method

In terrain analysis and hydrological modeling, surface depressions (or sinks) in a digital elevation model (DEM) are commonly treated as artifacts and thus filled and removed to create a depressionless DEM. Various algorithms have been developed to identify and fill depressions in DEMs during the past decades. However, few studies have attempted to delineate and quantify the nested hierarchy of actual depressions, which can provide crucial information for characterizing surface hydrologic connectivity and simulating the fill‐merge‐spill hydrological process. In this paper, we present an innovative and efficient algorithm for delineating and quantifying nested depressions in DEMs using the level‐set method based on graph theory. The proposed level‐set method emulates water level decreasing from the spill point along the depression boundary to the lowest point at the bottom of a depression. By tracing the dynamic topological changes (i.e., depression splitting/merging) within a compound depression, the level‐set method can construct topological graphs and derive geometric properties of the nested depressions. The experimental results of two fine‐resolution Light Detection and Ranging‐derived DEMs show that the raster‐based level‐set algorithm is much more efficient (~150 times faster) than the vector‐based contour tree method. The proposed level‐set algorithm has great potential for being applied to large‐scale ecohydrological analysis and watershed modeling.     

Using LiDAR Data Analysis to Estimate Changes in Insolation Under Large‐Scale Riparian Deforestation1

Greenberg, Jonathan Asher, Erin L. Hestir, David Riano, George J. Scheer, and Susan L. Ustin, 2012. Using LiDAR Data Analysis to Estimate Changes in Insolation Under Large‐Scale Riparian Deforestation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 939‐948. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00664.x Abstract: Riparian vegetation provides shade from insolation to stream channels. A consequence of removing vegetation may be an increase in insolation that can increase water temperatures and negatively impact ecosystem health. Although the mechanisms of riparian shading are well understood, spatially explicit, mechanistic models of shading have been limited by the data requirements of precisely describing the three‐dimensional structure of a riparian corridor. Remotely acquired, high spatial resolution LiDAR data provide detailed three‐dimensional vegetation structure and terrain topography over large regions. By parameterizing solar radiation models that incorporate terrain shadowing with LiDAR data, we can produce spatially explicit estimates of insolation. As a case study, we modeled the relative change in insolation on channels in the Sacramento‐San Joaquin River Delta under current conditions and under a hypothesized deforested Delta using classified LiDAR, rasterized at a 1‐m resolution. Our results suggest that the removal of levee vegetation could result in a 9% increase in solar radiation incident on Delta waters, and may lead to water temperature increases. General, coarse‐scale channel characteristics (reach width, azimuth, levee vegetation cover, and height) only accounted for 72% of the variation in the insolation. This indicates that the detailed information derived from LiDAR data has greater explanatory power than coarser reach‐scale metrics often used for insolation estimates.     

A Geospatial Methodology to Identify Locations of Concentrated Runoff from Agricultural Fields

A geospatial methodology has been developed that utilizes high resolution lidar‐derived DEMs to help track runoff from agricultural fields and identify areas of potential concentrated flow through vegetated riparian areas in the Coastal Plain of Virginia. Points of concentrated flow are identified across 74 agricultural fields within the Virginia portion of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. On average, 70% of the surface area of the agricultural fields analyzed drains through less than 20 m of the field margin, and on average 81% of the field surface area drains through 1% or less of the field margin. Within the riparian buffer, locations that were predicted by the geospatial model to have high levels of concentrated flow were found to exhibit evidence of channelization. Results indicate that flow concentration and channelized flow through vegetated riparian areas may be common along the margin of agricultural fields, resulting in vegetated riparian areas that are less effective at sediment trapping than assumed. Additional results suggest that the regulations governing the location and width of vegetated riparian may not be sufficient to achieve goals for reducing sediment and nutrient runoff from nonpoint agricultural sources. Combined with the increasing availability of lidar‐derived DEMs, the geospatial model presented has the potential to advance management practices aimed at reducing nonpoint source pollution leaving agricultural fields.     

Modeling Stream Channel Characteristics From Drainage‐Enforced DEMs in Puget Sound,Washington, USA1

Abstract: Mapping stream channels and their geomorphic attributes is an important step in many watershed research and management projects. Often insufficient field data exist to map hydromorphologic attributes across entire drainage basins, necessitating the application of hydrologic modeling tools to digital elevation models (DEMs) via a geographic information system (GIS). In this article, we demonstrate methods for deriving synthetic stream networks via GIS across large and diverse basins using drainage‐enforced DEMs, along with techniques for estimating channel widths and gradient on the reach scale. The two‐step drainage enforcement method we used produced synthetic stream networks that displayed a high degree of positional accuracy relative to the input streams. The accuracies of our estimated channel parameters were assessed with field data, and predictions of bankfull width, wetted width and gradient were strongly correlated with measured values (r² = 0.92, r² = 0.95, r² = 0.88, respectively). Classification accuracies of binned channel attributes were also high. Our methodology allows for the relatively rapid mapping of stream channels and associated morphological attributes across large geographic areas. Although initially developed to provide salmon recovery planners with important salmon habitat information, we suggest these methodologies are relevant to a variety of research and management questions.     

GENETIC PROGRAMMING AND ITS APPLICATION IN REAL‐TIME RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic programming (GP), a relatively new evolutionary technique, is demonstrated in this study to evolve codes for the solution of problems. First, a simple example in the area of symbolic regression is considered. GP is then applied to real‐time runoff forecasting for the Orgeval catchment in France. In this study, GP functions as an error updating scheme to complement a rainfall‐runoff model, MIKE11/NAM. Hourly runoff forecasts of different updating intervals are performed for forecast horizons of up to nine hours. The results show that the proposed updating scheme is able to predict the runoff quite accurately for all updating intervals considered and particularly for updating intervals not exceeding the time of concentration of the catchment. The results are also compared with those of an earlier study, by the World Meteorological Organization, in which autoregression and Kalman filter were used as the updating methods. Comparisons show that GP is a better updating tool for real‐time flow forecasting. Another important finding from this study is that nondimensionalizing the variables enhances the symbolic regression process significantly.     

Identifying Urban Features from LiDAR for a High‐Resolution Urban Hydrologic Model

Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), is relatively inexpensive, provides high spatial resolution sampling at great accuracy, and can be used to generate surface terrain and land cover datasets for urban areas. These datasets are used to develop high‐resolution hydrologic models necessary to resolve complex drainage networks in urban areas. This work develops a five‐step algorithm to generate indicator fields for tree canopies, buildings, and artificial structures using Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS‐GIS), and a common computing language, Matrix Laboratory. The 54 km² study area in Parker, Colorado consists of twenty‐four 1,500 × 1,500 m LiDAR subsets at 1 m resolution with varying degrees of urbanization. The algorithm correctly identifies 96% of the artificial structures within the study area; however, application success is dependent upon urban extent. Urban land use fractions below 0.2 experienced an increase in falsely identified building locations. ParFlow, a three‐dimensional, grid‐based hydrological model, uses these building and artificial structure indicator fields and digital elevation model for a hydrologic simulation. The simulation successfully develops the complex drainage network and simulates overland flow on the impervious surfaces (i.e., along the gutters and off rooftops) made possible through this spatial analysis process.     

CRITICAL EVALUATION OF CERTAIN METHODS OF UNSTEADY GROUNDWATER HYDRAULICS1

The basic theories and fundamental assumptions usually employed in the solution of unsteady groundwater flow problems are reviewed critically. The best known method of analysis for such problems is based on the Dupuit-Forchheimer approximation and leads to a nonlinear parabolic differential equation which is generally solved by linearization or numerical methods. The accuracy of the solution to this equation can be improved by use of a different approach which does not employ the Dupuit Forchheimer assumption, but rather is based on a semi-numerical solution of the Laplace equation for quasi-steady conditions. The actual unsteady process is replaced by a sequence of steady-state conditions, and it is assumed that the actual unsteady flow characteristics during a short time interval can be approximated by those associated with “average” steady state flow. The Laplace equation is solved by a semi-discretization method according to which the horizontal coordinate is divided into subintervals, while the vertical coordinate is maintained continuous. The proposed method is applied to a typical tile drainage problem, and, based on a comparison of calculated results with experimental data, the method is evaluated and practical conclusions regarding its applicability are advanced.     

The Impact of Asynchronicity on Event‐Flow Estimation in Basin‐Scale Hydrologic Model Calibration1

Abstract: The calibration of basin‐scale hydrologic models consists of adjusting parameters such that simulated values closely match observed values. However, due to inevitable inaccuracies in models and model inputs, simulated response hydrographs for multiyear calibrations will not be perfectly synchronized with observed response hydrographs at the daily time step. An analytically derived formula suggests that when timing errors are significant, traditional calibration approaches may generally underestimate the total event‐flow volume. An event‐adaptive time series is developed and incorporated into the Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency objective function to diagnose the potential impact of event‐flow synchronization errors. Test sites are the 50 km² Subwatershed I of the Little River Experimental Watershed (LREWswI) in southeastern Georgia, and the 610 km² Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in southwestern Oklahoma, with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool used as the hydrologic model. Results suggest that simulated surface runoff generation is 55% less for LREWswI when the daily time series is used compared with when the event‐adaptive technique is used. Event‐flow generation may also be underestimated for LWREW, but to a lesser extent than it may be for LREWswI, due to a larger portion of the event flow being lateral flow.     

Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate1

Stedinger, Jery R. and Veronica W. Griffis, 2011. Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):506‐513. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00545.x Abstract: Modeling variations in flood risk due to climate change and climate variability are a challenge to our profession. Flood‐risk computations by United States (U.S.) federal agencies follow guidelines in Bulletin 17 for which the latest update 17B was published in 1982. Efforts are underway to update that remarkable document. Additional guidance in the Bulletin as to how to address variation in flood risk over time would be welcome. Extensions of the log‐Pearson type 3 model to include changes in flood risk over time would be relatively easy mathematically. Here an example of the use of a sea surface temperature anomaly to anticipate changes in flood risk from year to year in the U.S. illustrates this opportunity. Efforts to project the trend in the Mississippi River flood series beg the question as to whether an observed trend will continue unabated, has reached its maximum, or is really nothing other than climate variability. We are challenged with the question raised by Milly and others: Is stationarity dead? Overall, we do not know the present flood risk at a site because of limited flood records. If we allow for historical climate variability and climate change, we know even less. But the issue is not whether stationarity is dead – the issue is how to use all the information available to reliably forecast flood risk in the future: “Where do we go from here?”     

Retrieving surface deformation by PSInSAR™ technology: A powerful tool in reservoir monitoring

Reservoir monitoring improves our understanding of reservoir behaviour and helps achieve more effective reservoir management and prediction of future performance with obvious economic benefits. It relies on an integrated approach involving both surveillance (well or surface based; seismic, electrical, leakage, flow and deformation measurements, etc.) and modelling. Surface deformation monitoring can provide valuable constraints on the dynamic behaviour of a reservoir enabling the evaluation of volumetric changes in the reservoir through time. Levelling campaigns, tiltmeters, GPS permanent stations and Permanent Scatterer SAR Interferometry (PSInSAR™) are the techniques most widely used to determine surface displacements. Whatever the surveying technique, the detection of millimetre-level surface deformation is required to monitor small surface displacement rates that could impact risk evaluation and land use planning. Depending on depth and reservoir/overburden rheology, volumetric changes in reservoirs due to fluid extraction and injection can induce either subsidence or uplift that could trigger fault reactivation and threaten well integrity; deformation may also be detectable at the surface. Mapping surface effects accurately requires hundreds of observation points per km² which cannot be delivered by traditional monitoring methods without unacceptably large expenditure. PSInSAR™ is one of the most promising and cost-effective techniques capable of providing high precision and high areal density displacement measurements over long periods of time. Moreover, the availability of PS data for both ascending and descending orbits enables the estimation of both vertical and E–W horizontal displacement fields. Two case histories will be presented to illustrate the advantages of PSInSAR™ technology for the detection of surface deformation induced by reservoir exploitation and monitoring of its evolution though time.     

Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.     

Lake Water Levels and Associated Hydrologic Characteristics in the Conterminous U.S.

Establishing baseline hydrologic characteristics for lakes in the United States (U.S.) is critical to evaluate changes to lake hydrology. We used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment 2007 and 2012 surveys to assess hydrologic characteristics of a population of ~45,000 lakes in the conterminous U.S. based on probability samples of ~1,000 lakes/yr distributed across nine ecoregions. Lake hydrologic study variables include water‐level drawdown (i.e., vertical decline and horizontal littoral exposure) and two water stable isotope‐derived parameters: evaporation‐to‐inflow (E:I) and water residence time. We present (1) national and regional distributions of the study variables for both natural and man‐made lakes and (2) differences in these characteristics between 2007 and 2012. In 2007, 59% of the population of U.S. lakes had Greater than normal or Excessive drawdown relative to water levels in ecoregional reference lakes with minimal human disturbances; whereas in 2012, only 20% of lakes were significantly drawn down beyond normal ranges. Water isotope‐derived variables did not differ significantly between survey years in contrast to drawdown. Median E:I was 20% indicating that flow‐through processes dominated lake water regimes. For 75% of U.S. lakes, water residence time was less than one year and was longer in natural vs. man‐made lakes. Our study provides baseline ranges to assess local and regional lake hydrologic status and inform management decisions in changing environmental conditions.     

Does the Temporal Resolution of Precipitation Input Influence the Simulated Hydrological Components Employing the SWAT Model?

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Predicting the Planform Configuration of the Braided Toklat River,Alaska, With a Suite of Rule‐Based Models1

Abstract: An ensemble of rule‐based models was constructed to assess possible future braided river planform configurations for the Toklat River in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. This approach combined an analysis of large‐scale influences on stability with several reduced‐complexity models to produce the predictions at a practical level for managers concerned about the persistence of bank erosion while acknowledging the great uncertainty in any landscape prediction. First, a model of confluence angles reproduced observed angles of a major confluence, but showed limited susceptibility to a major rearrangement of the channel planform downstream. Second, a probabilistic map of channel locations was created with a two‐parameter channel avulsion model. The predicted channel belt location was concentrated in the same area as the current channel belt. Finally, a suite of valley‐scale channel and braid plain characteristics were extracted from a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)‐derived surface. The characteristics demonstrated large‐scale stabilizing topographic influences on channel planform. The combination of independent analyses increased confidence in the conclusion that the Toklat River braided planform is a dynamically stable system due to large and persistent valley‐scale influences, and that a range of avulsive perturbations are likely to result in a relatively unchanged planform configuration in the short term.     

Seasonal and Flood‐Induced Variations in Groundwater–Surface Water Exchange in a Northern Coldwater Fishery

Groundwater upwelling is important to coldwater fisheries survival. This study used stable isotopes to identify upwelling zones within a watershed, then combined isotope analyses with reach‐scale monitoring to measure surface water–groundwater exchange over time. Research focused on Amity Creek, Minnesota, a basin that exemplifies conditions limiting coldwater species survival along Lake Superior's North Shore where shallow bedrock limits groundwater capacity, lowering baseflows and increasing temperatures. Groundwater‐fed reaches were identified through synoptic isotope sampling, with results highlighting the importance of isolated shallow surficial aquifers (glacially derived sands and gravels) for providing cold baseflow waters. In an alluvial reach, monitoring well results show groundwater was stored in two reservoirs: one that reacts quickly to changes in stream levels, and one that remained isotopically isolated under most flow conditions, but which helps sustain summer baseflows for weeks to months. A 500‐year flood demonstrated the capacity of high‐flow events to alter surface water–groundwater connectivity. The previously isolated reservoir was exchanged or mixed during the flood pulse, while incision lowered the water table for years. The results here provide insight for streams that lack substantial groundwater inputs yet maintain coldwater species at risk in a warming climate and an approach for managers seeking to protect cold baseflow sources.     

Nitrogen Subsidies from Hillslope Alder Stands to Streamside Wetlands and Headwater Streams,Kenai Peninsula,Alaska

We examined nitrogen transport and wetland primary production along hydrologic flow paths that link nitrogen‐fixing alder (Alnus spp.) stands to downslope wetlands and streams in the Kenai Lowlands, Alaska. We expected that nitrate concentrations in surface water and groundwater would be higher on flow paths below alder. We further expected that nitrate concentrations would be higher in surface water and groundwater at the base of short flow paths with alder and that streamside wetlands at the base of alder‐near flow paths would be less nitrogen limited than wetlands at the base of long flow paths with alder. Our results showed that groundwater nitrate‐N concentrations were significantly higher at alder‐near sites than at no‐alder sites, but did not differ significantly between alder‐far sites and no‐alder sites or between alder‐far sites and alder‐near sites. A survey of ¹⁵N stable isotope signatures in soils and foliage in alder‐near and no‐alder flow paths indicated the alder‐derived nitrogen evident in soils below alder is quickly integrated downslope. Additionally, there was a significant difference in the relative increase in plant biomass after nitrogen fertilization, with the greatest increase occurring in the no‐alder sites. This study demonstrates that streamside wetlands and streams are connected to the surrounding landscapes through hydrologic flow paths, and flow paths with alder stands are potential “hot spots” for nitrogen subsidies at the hillslope scale.     

A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin

The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics‐Snake River Planning Model (SD‐SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950‐1995) resulted in an r² value of 0.74 and a validation (1996‐2005) r² value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r² value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991‐2005) end‐of‐month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration (ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human‐natural system to understand the impacts of climate change.