Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S.1

Villarini, Gabriele, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Witold F. Krajewski, 2011. Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):447‐463. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00540.x Abstract: Annual maximum peak discharge time series from 196 stream gage stations with a record of at least 75 years from the Midwest United States is examined to study flood peak distributions from a regional point of view. The focus of this study is to evaluate: (1) “mixtures” of flood peak distributions, (2) upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions, and (3) presence of temporal nonstationarities in the flood peak records. Warm season convective systems are responsible for some of the largest floods in the area, in particular in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa. Spring events associated with snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow are common in the northern part of the study domain. Nonparametric tests are used to investigate the presence of abrupt and slowly varying changes. Change‐points rather than monotonic trends are responsible for most violations of the stationarity assumption. The abrupt changes in flood peaks can be associated with anthropogenic changes, such as changes in land use/land cover, agricultural practice, and construction of dams. The trend analyses do not suggest an increase in the flood peak distribution due to anthropogenic climate change. Examination of the upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions are examined by means of the location, scale, and shape parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution.     

Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves1

Haucke, Jessica and Katherine A. Clancy, 2011. Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1338–1347. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00590.x Abstract: Bankfull regional curves, which are curves that establish relationships among channel morphology, discharge, drainage area, are used extensively for stream restoration. These curves are developed upon the assumption that streamflows maintain stationarity over the entire record. We examined this assumption in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin where agricultural soil retention practices have changed, and precipitation has increased since the 1970s. We developed a bankfull regional curve for this area using field surveys of bankfull channel performed during 2008‐2009 and annual series of peak streamflows for 10 rivers with streamflow records ranging from the 1930s to 2009. We found bankfull flows to correlate to a 1.1 return period. To evaluate gage data statistics, we used the sign test to compare our channel morphology to historic 1.5 return period discharge (Q_1.5) for five time periods: 1959‐1972, 1973‐1992, 1993‐2008, 1999‐2008, and the 1959‐2008 period of record. Analysis of the historic gage data indicated that there has been a more than 30% decline in Q_1.5 since 1959. Our research suggests that land conservation practices may have a larger impact on gaging station stationarity than annual precipitation changes do. Additionally, historic peak flow data from gages, which have records that span land conservation changes, may need to be truncated to represent current flow regimes.     

CORRELATION OF ANNUAL PEAK FLOWS FOR PENNSYLVANIA STREAMS1

A common assumption in flood frequency analysis is that annual peak flows are independent events. This study was undertaken to investigate the validity of this assumption with regard to Pennsylvania streams by statistically analyzing the dependence between annual peak flows and to determine if basin carryover effects relate to the degree of dependence. Five tests of dependence, the autocorrelation test, the median crossing test, the turning points test, the rank difference test, and the Spearman rank order serial correlation coefficient test were applied to the series of annual peak flows for 57 streams. Of the 57 streams analyzed, only two exhibited signs of dependence by at least two of the tests performed, and the baseflow component of annual peak flows was found to be unrelated to the degree of dependence exhibited between annual peak flows. It was concluded that the assumption of independence of annual peak flows is valid in flood frequency analysis for Pennsylvania streams.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate1

Stedinger, Jery R. and Veronica W. Griffis, 2011. Getting From Here to Where? Flood Frequency Analysis and Climate. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):506‐513. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00545.x Abstract: Modeling variations in flood risk due to climate change and climate variability are a challenge to our profession. Flood‐risk computations by United States (U.S.) federal agencies follow guidelines in Bulletin 17 for which the latest update 17B was published in 1982. Efforts are underway to update that remarkable document. Additional guidance in the Bulletin as to how to address variation in flood risk over time would be welcome. Extensions of the log‐Pearson type 3 model to include changes in flood risk over time would be relatively easy mathematically. Here an example of the use of a sea surface temperature anomaly to anticipate changes in flood risk from year to year in the U.S. illustrates this opportunity. Efforts to project the trend in the Mississippi River flood series beg the question as to whether an observed trend will continue unabated, has reached its maximum, or is really nothing other than climate variability. We are challenged with the question raised by Milly and others: Is stationarity dead? Overall, we do not know the present flood risk at a site because of limited flood records. If we allow for historical climate variability and climate change, we know even less. But the issue is not whether stationarity is dead – the issue is how to use all the information available to reliably forecast flood risk in the future: “Where do we go from here?”     

A HYDROCLIMATIC APPLICATION STRATEGY FOR THE POISSON PARTIAL DURATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A strategy for formulating and testing the Poisson partial duration extreme value model is presented. The procedure is demonstrated using recorded Streamflow series from a humid subtropical region of the southern United States. The observed data series are partitioned by climatic causes and tested for both the Poisson assumption and the validity of the exponential as marginal distributions. Several statistical tests are utilized in making these determinations. Some important aspects of the model as applied to humid climates are demonstrated. It was found that a majority of Streamflow series could be represented by the model and that significant differences do exist between the arrival structures of floods resulting from different climatic mechanisms. However, these differences generally do not exist in the distribution of the flood magnitudes. In addition, it is possible that model validity is restricted by drainage basin size.     

A HYDROCLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RED RWER OF THE NORTH SNOWMELT FLOOD CATASTROPHE OF 19971

ABSTRACT: The flood hydroclimatology of the Grand Forks flood of April 1997, the most costly flood on a per capita basis for a major metropolitan area in United States history, is analyzed in terms of the natural processes that control spring snowmelt flooding in the region. The geomorphological characteristics of the basin are reviewed, and an integrated assessment of the hydroclimatological conditions during the winter of 1996 to 1997 is presented to gain a real‐world understanding of the physical basis of this catastrophic flood event. The Grand Forks flood resulted from the principal flood‐producing factors occurring at either historic or extreme levels, or at levels conducive to severe flooding. Above normal fall precipitation increased the fall soil moisture storage and reduced the spring soil moisture storage potential. A concrete frost layer developed that effectively reduced the soil infiltration capacity to zero. Record snowfall totals and snow cover depths occurred across the basin because of the unusual persistence of a blocking high circulation pattern throughout the winter. A severe, late spring blizzard delayed the snowmelt season and replenished the snow cover to record levels for early April. This blizzard was followed by a sudden transition to an extreme late season thaw due to the abrupt breakdown of the blocking circulation pattern. The presence of river ice contributed to backwater effects and affected the timing of tributary inflows to the main stem of the Red River. Only the absence of spring rains prevented an even more catastrophic flood disaster from taking place. This paper contributes to our understanding of the flood hydroclimatology of catastrophic flood events in an unusual flood hazard region that possesses relatively flat terrain, a north‐flowing river, and an annual peak discharge time series dominated by spring snowmelt floods.     

CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY EVOLUTION AND OVERBANK FLOW IN THE GEORGIA PIEDMONT1

ABSTRACT: Historic changes in stream channel morphology were investigated in the Georgia Piedmont to better understand the hydrologic processes and functioning of the region's riverine systems. USGS gaging station data and channel geomorphology data were collected from thirty study sites in the Upper Oconee River Basin for flood frequency analysis. Historic and modern (i.e., present-day) channel capacity discharge (i.e., overbank flow) was calculated using Manning's equation and historic channel cross-section records. The recurrence interval for overbank flow was estimated for each site from flood frequency data. Results indicate that channel expansion has occurred throughout the basin, especially in upper reaches. Recurrence intervals for modern overbank events were variable and generally high ranging from < 2 to > 500 years for first to third order streams. They were less variable and lower for fourth and fifth order streams, ranging from < 2 to 3 years. Potential depositional thresholds were identified that exemplify the complex response of sediment distribution patterns throughout the basin. Results indicate overbank flows occur less frequently now than they once did due to historic accelerated sedimentation and subsequent channel expansion. One application of these findings is that these basin processes are likely applicable across the region and may impact the hydrologic functioning of associated Piedmont riverine wetlands that depend on flooding regimes.     

The Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Annual Floods in the Rivers of Western Canada

We analyzed annual peak flow series from 127 naturally flowing or naturalized streamflow gauges across western Canada to examine the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on annual flood risk, which has been previously unexamined in detail. Using Spearman's rank correlation ρ and permutation tests on quantile‐quantile plots, we show that higher magnitude floods are more likely during the negative phase of the PDO than during the positive phase (shown at 38% of the stations by Spearman's rank correlations and at 51% of the stations according to the permutation tests). Flood frequency analysis (FFA) stratified according to PDO phase suggests that higher magnitude floods may also occur more frequently during the negative PDO phase than during the positive phase. Our results hold throughout much of this region, with the upper Fraser River Basin, the Columbia River Basin, and the North Saskatchewan River Basin particularly subject to this effect. Our results add to other researchers' work questioning the wholesale validity of the key assumption in FFA that the annual peak flow series at a site is independently and identically distributed. Hence, knowledge of large‐scale climate state should be considered prior to the design and construction of infrastructure.     

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATION FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the distribution of flood flows in the Upper Mississippi, Lower Missouri, and Illinois Rivers and their relationship to climatic indices. Global climate patterns including El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation explained very little of the variations in flow peaks. However, large and statistically significant upward trends were found in many gauge records along the Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers: at Hermann on the Missouri River above the confluence with the Mississippi (p = 2 percent), at Hannibal on the Mississippi River (p < 0.1 percent), at Meredosia on the Illinois River (p = 0.7 percent), and at St. Louis on the Mississippi below the confluence of all three rivers (p = 1 percent). This challenges the traditional assumption that flood series are independent and identically distributed random variables and suggests that flood risk changes over time.     

DAM‐INDUCED MODIFICATIONS TO UPPER ALLEGHENY RIVER STREAMFLOW PATTERNS AND THEIR BIODIVERSITY IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the streamflow characteristics of the upper Allegheny River during the periods preceding (1936 to 1965) and following (1966 to 1997) completion of the Kinzua Dam in northwestern Pennsylvania. Inter‐period trends in seasonal patterns of discharge and peak flow at three downstream sites are compared to those at two upstream sites to determine the influence of this large dam on surface water hydrology. Climatic records indicate that significant changes in annual total and seasonal precipitation occurred over the twentieth century. Increased runoff during the late summer through early winter led to increased discharge both upstream and downstream during these months, while slightly less early‐year rainfall produced minor reductions in spring flood peaks since 1966. The Kinzua Dam significantly enhanced these trends downstream, creating large reductions in peak flow, while greatly augmenting low flow during the growing season. This reduction in streamflow variability, coupled with other dam‐induced changes, has important biodiversity implications. The downstream riparian zone contains numerous threatened/endangered species, many of which are sensitive to the type of habitat modifications produced by the dam. Flood dynamics under the current post‐dam conditions are likely to compound the difficulties of maintaining their long‐term viability.     

LONG‐TERM CHANGES IN REGIONAL HYDROLOGIC REGIME FOLLOWING IMPOUNDMENT IN A HUMID‐CLIMATE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: We analyzed the type of hydrologic adjustments resulting from flow regulation across a range of dam types, distributed throughout the Connecticut River watershed, using two approaches: (1) the Index of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and (2) log‐Pearson Type III flood frequency analysis. We applied these analyses to seven rivers that have extensive pre‐and post‐disturbance flow records and to six rivers that have only long post‐regulation flow records. Lastly, we analyzed six unregulated streams to establish the regional natural flow regime and to test whether it has changed significantly over time in the context of an increase in forest cover from less than 20 percent historically to greater than 80 percent at present. We found significant hydrologic adjustments associated with both impoundments and land use change. On average, maximum peak flows decrease by 32 percent in impounded rivers, but the effect decreases with increasing flow duration. One‐day minimum low flows increase following regulation, except for the hydro‐electric facility on the mainstem. Hydrograph reversals occur more commonly now on the mainstem, but the tributary flood control structures experience diminished reversals. Major shifts in flood frequency occur with the largest effect occurring downstream of tributary flood control impoundments and less so downstream of the mainstem's hydroelectric facility. These overall results indicate that the hydrologic impacts of dams in humid environments can be as significant as those for large, multiple‐purpose reservoirs in more arid environments.     

Evidence for Changing Flood Risk in New England Since the Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Long‐term flow records for watersheds with minimal human influence have shown trends in recent decades toward increasing streamflow at regional and national scales, especially for low flow quantiles like the annual minimum and annual median flows. Trends for high flow quantiles are less clear, despite recent research showing increased precipitation in the conterminous United States over the last century that has been brought about primarily by an increased frequency and intensity of events in the upper 10th percentile of the daily precipitation distribution – particularly in the Northeast. This study investigates trends in 28 long‐term annual flood series for New England watersheds with dominantly natural streamflow. The flood series are an average of 75 years in length and are continuous through 2006. Twenty‐five series show upward trends via the nonparametric Mann‐Kendall test, 40% (10) of which are statistically significant (p < 0.1). Moreover, an average standardized departures series for 23 of the study gages indicates that increasing flood magnitudes in New England occurred as a step change around 1970. The timing of this is broadly synchronous with a phase change in the low frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a prominent upper atmospheric circulation pattern that is known to effect climate variability along the United States east coast. Identifiable hydroclimatic shifts should be considered when the affected flow records are used for flood frequency analyses. Special treatment of the flood series can improve the analyses and provide better estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies under the prevailing hydroclimatic condition.     

If Stationarity is Dead,What Do We Do Now?1

Galloway, Gerald E., 2011. If Stationarity Is Dead, What Do We Do Now? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):563‐570. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00550.x Abstract: In January 2010, hydrologists, climatologists, engineers, and scientists met in Boulder, Colorado, to discuss the report of the death of hydrologic stationarity and the implications this might have on water resources planning and operations in the United States and abroad. For decades planners have relied on design guidance from the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data Bulletin 17B that was based upon the concept of stationarity. After 2½ days of discussion it became clear that the assembled community had yet to reach an agreement on whether or not to replace the assumption of stationarity with an assumption of nonstationarity or something else. Hydrologists were skeptical that data gathered to this point in the 21st Century point to any significant change in river parameters. Climatologists, on the other hand, point to climate change and the predicted shift away from current conditions to a more turbulent flood and drought filled future. Both groups are challenged to provide immediate guidance to those individuals in and outside the water community who today must commit funds and efforts on projects that will require the best estimates of future conditions. The workshop surfaced many approaches to dealing with these challenges. While there is good reason to support additional study of the death of stationarity, its implications, and new approaches, there is also a great need to provide those in the field the information they require now to plan, design, and operate today’s projects.     

Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States1

Vogel, Richard M., Chad Yaindl, and Meghan Walter, 2011. Nonstationarity: Flood Magnification and Recurrence Reduction Factors in the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):464‐474. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00541.x Abstract: It may no longer be reasonable to model streamflow as a stationary process, yet nearly all existing water resource planning methods assume that historical streamflows will remain unchanged in the future. In the few instances when trends in extreme events have been considered, most recent work has focused on the influence of climate change, alone. This study takes a different approach by exploring trends in floods in watersheds which are subject to a very broad range of anthropogenic influences, not limited to climate change. A simple statistical model is developed which can both mimic observed flood trends as well as the frequency of floods in a nonstationary world. This model is used to explore a range of flood planning issues in a nonstationary world. A decadal flood magnification factor is defined as the ratio of the T‐year flood in a decade to the T‐year flood today. Using historical flood data across the United States we obtain flood magnification factors in excess of 2‐5 for many regions of the United States, particularly those regions with higher population densities. Similarly, we compute recurrence reduction factors which indicate that what is now considered the 100‐year flood, may become much more common in many watersheds. Nonstationarity in floods can result from a variety of anthropogenic processes including changes in land use, climate, and water use, with likely interactions among those processes making it very difficult to attribute trends to a particular cause.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

Developing Peak Discharges for Future Flood Risk Studies Using IPCC's CMIP5 Climate Model Results and USGS WREG Program

Extreme climate events, floods, and drought, cause huge impact on daily lives. In order to produce society resilient to extreme events, it is necessary to assess the impact of frequent and high intensity storm events on design parameters. This article describes a methodology to develop future peak “design discharges” throughout the United States that can be used as a guidance to map future floodplains. In order to develop a lower and upper limit for anticipated peak flow discharges, two future growth scenarios — Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)‐RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were identified as the weak and strong climate scenario respectively based on the output from the global climate models. The Generalized Least Square technique in United States Geological Survey's Weighted Multiple Regression (WREG) program was used to develop regression equations that relate peak discharges to basin and climate parameters of the contributing watershed. The design discharges reflect the most recent climate model results. Number of frost days, heavy rainfall days, high temperature days, and snow depth were found to be the common extreme climate parameters influencing the regression equations. This methodology can be extended to other flood frequency events if rainfall data is available. The future discharges can be utilized in hydraulics models to estimate floodplains that can assist in resilient infrastructure planning and outline climate change adaptation strategies.     

Assessing Effectiveness of National Flood Policy Through Spatiotemporal Monitoring of Socioeconomic Exposure1

Abstract: After a century of evolving flood policies, there has been a steady increase in flood losses, which has partly been driven by development in flood prone areas. National flood policy was revised in 1994 to focus on limiting and reducing the amount of development inside the 100‐year floodplain, with the goal of decreasing flood losses, which can be measured and quantified in terms of population and property value inside the 100‐year floodplain. Monitoring changes in these measurable indicators can inform where and how effective national floodplain management strategies have been. National flood policies are restricted to the spatial extent of the 100‐year floodplain, thus there are no development regulations to protect against flooding adjacent to this boundary. No consistent monitoring has been undertaken to examine the effect of flood policy on development immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain. We developed a standardized methodology, which leveraged national data to quantify changes in population and building tax value (exposure). We applied this approach to counties in North Carolina to assess (1) temporal changes, before and after the 1994 policy and (2) spatial changes, inside and adjacent to the 100‐year floodplain. Temporal results indicate the Piedmont and Mountain Region had limited success at reducing exposure within the 100‐year floodplain, while the Coastal Plain successfully reduced exposure. Spatially, there was a significant increase in exposure immediately outside the 100‐year floodplain throughout North Carolina. The lack of consistent monitoring has resulted in the continuation of this unintended consequence, which could be a significant driver of increased flood losses as any flood even slightly higher than the 100‐year floodplain will have a disproportionately large impact since development is outside the legal boundary of national flood policy.     

THE FLOOD HAZARD AND DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Literature on the flood hazard/residential land market relationship is full of contradictory findings, many of which are counter-intuitive to the belief that flooding has a negative impact on house prices. This research advances a conceptual framework through which these relationships might be re-examined. Based on the expected utility model, the theoretical framework integrates the economic notion of capitalization with spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood hazard. Four communities with different flood regimes are used to test the effect of flooding on the residential real estate market. Results show that, (1) there is an identifiable relationship between characteristics of the flood hazard and changes in house values; (2) the length of the recovery period is dependent on characteristics and expectations of flooding, attributes of the real estate market, and availability of capital to fuel recovery; and (3) dynamics of the urban market and spatial extent of the flood hazard influence these relationships. Further research is now necessary to examine these findings under different spatial, temporal, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions.     

Implementing the European flood risk management plan

In response to the extreme flood events of recent decades, the European Union has released the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), which requires the creation of flood risk management plans. These plans do not yet exist in practice, as water management agencies have until 2015 to put them into action. This contribution will discuss two questions regarding the European flood risk management plan: First, how is the new instrument integrated into the various member states, particularly with respect to the scenario approach? Second, how prepared are the institutions for the collaborative planning paradigm of the flood risk management plan, particularly with respect to the river basin districts approach? Citing examples from France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Great Britain, this paper offers both a pessimistic and an optimistic perspective on the implementation of the new flood risk management instrument.