Evaluating the Outcomes of Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support

Does collaborative modeling improve water resource management outcomes? How does collaborative modeling improve these outcomes? Does it always work? Under what conditions is collaborative modeling most appropriate? With support from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources (IWR), researchers developed an evaluation framework to help address these questions. The framework links the effects of collaborative modeling on decision‐making processes with improvements in the extent to which resource management decisions, practices, and policies balance societal needs. Both practitioners' and participants' experiences suggest that under the right circumstances, collaborative modeling can generate these beneficial outcomes. Researchers developed performance measures and a survey to systematically capture these experiences and evaluate the outcomes of collaborative modeling processes. The survey can provide immediate feedback during a project to determine whether collaborative modeling is having the desired effect and whether course correction is warranted. Over the longer term, the systematic evaluation of collaborative modeling processes will help demonstrate in what ways and under what circumstances collaborative modeling is effective, inform and improve best practices, and raise awareness among water resource planners regarding the use of collaborative modeling for resource management decisions.     

Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data1

Nishat, Bushra and S.M. Mahbubur Rahman, 2009. Water Resources Modeling of the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna River Basins Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1313‐1327. Abstract: Large‐scale water resources modeling can provide useful insights on future water availability scenarios for downstream nations in anticipation of proposed upstream water resources projects in large international river basins (IRBs). However, model set up can be challenging due to the large amounts of data requirement on both static states (soils, vegetation, topography, drainage network, etc.) and dynamic variables (rainfall, streamflow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, etc.) over the basin from multiple nations and data collection agencies. Under such circumstances, satellite remote sensing provides a more pragmatic and convenient alternative because of the vantage of space and easy availability from a single data platform. In this paper, we demonstrate a modeling effort to set up a water resources management model, MIKE BASIN, over the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) river basins. The model is set up with the objective of providing Bangladesh, the lowermost riparian nation in the GBM basins, a framework for assessing proposed water diversion scenarios in the upstream transboundary regions of India and deriving quantitative impacts on water availability. Using an array of satellite remote sensing data on topography, vegetation, and rainfall from the transboundary regions, we demonstrate that it is possible to calibrate MIKE BASIN to a satisfactory level and predict streamflow in the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers at the entry points of Bangladesh at relevant scales of water resources management. Simulated runoff for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers follow the trends in the rated discharge for the calibration period. However, monthly flow volume differs from the actual rated flow by (?) 8% to (+) 20% in the Ganges basin, by (?) 15 to (+) 12% in the Brahmaputra basin, and by (?) 15 to (+) 19% in the Meghna basin. Our large‐scale modeling initiative is generic enough for other downstream nations in IRBs to adopt for their own modeling needs.     

Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems1

Altaweel, Mark R., Lilian N. Alessa, and Andrew D. Kliskey, 2009. Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1379‐1389. Abstract: Arctic communities are increasingly faced with social–ecological changes that act at variable speeds and spatial scales. Such changes will affect vital resources, particularly water supplies. Currently, there are few computational tools that integrate multiple social and environmental processes in order to aid communities’ adaptation to change through decision support systems. This paper proposes a modeling and simulation approach that can integrate such processes at different spatiotemporal scales in order to address issues affecting community water supplies. In this paper, a modeling and simulation tool is developed and applied to a case study on the Seward Peninsula. Initial results, using both field observations and computation, show projected patterns of water use, perceptions of water availability, and long‐term consumption trends. More broadly, the paper demonstrates the need for developing tools that address issues at the community level for better understanding human and hydrological interactions and policy decisions affecting water supplies.     

最严格水资源管理制度政策效果仿真研究——以江苏为例

为探索中国最严格水资源管理制度实施成效,本研究运用系统动力学方法构建最严格水资源管理制度政策效果仿真模型,以江苏为例,首先从横向比较研究的视角,设置无政策和政策延续两种情景,分析有无政策时用水总量、用水效率和水功能区纳污的管控效果;然后从纵向比较研究的视角,分析政策实施后2013—2030年用水总量、用水效率和水功能区纳污控制效果的演化情况。结果显示：(1)横向对比,相对于无政策情景,政策延续情景下的区域水资源需求总量、万元GDP用水量以及污废水中的COD排放总量均有不同幅度的下降,且降幅逐年扩大,政策成效显著;(2)纵向对比,政策延续情景下,2030年区域水资源需求总量将超过国家最严格水资源管理制度考核要求近20亿m3,2025年万元GDP用水量降幅低于“十四五”节水型社会建设规划目标近2%,2030年污废水中的COD排放总量将比2021年升高近24%,政策管控水平仍需进一步提升。     

Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty1

Stakhiv, Eugene Z., 2011. Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1183–1196. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00589.x Abstract: Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of “robust decision making,” coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure.     

EVALUATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELING TECHNIQUES FOR FOREST LAND MANAGEMENT PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A growing concern for environmental quality paralleled with increasing demands on our forest resources has prompted the Washington State Department of Natural Resources to evaluate simulation modeling as a technique for analyzing management decisions in terms of their environmental effects. The evaluation focused on a system of integrated models developed at the University of Washington which simulate processes and activities within the forest ecosystem. A major part of the system is a hydrologic model which predicts changes in discharge, stream temperature, and concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved oxygen based on information generated by other models representing intensive management practices. The evaluation consisted of applying the system to a 72,000 acre tract of forest land, validating the models with two years of discharge and water quality data from a 93,000 acre watershed, and determining the pertinence of hydrologic modeling for management purposes. Results show several potential uses of hydrologic modeling for forest management planning, especially for analyzing the effects of timber harvesting strategies on water quality.     

Macro,Meso, and Micro‐Efficiencies in Water Resources Management: A New Framework Using Water Balance1

Haie, Naim and Andrew A. Keller, 2012. Macro, Meso, and Micro‐Efficiencies in Water Resources Management: A New Framework Using Water Balance. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 235‐243. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00611.x Abstract: One of the most important performance indicators for water resources systems (WRSs) management is efficiency. Here, water balance, based on mass conservation, is utilized to systemically develop three levels of composite efficiency indicators for a WRS, which are configurable based on two types of water totals: total inflow and total consumption (outflow that effectively is not available for reuse). The indices characterize hydrology of an area by including in their formulations the flow dynamics at three integrated levels. Furthermore, the usefulness of water is incorporated into the indicators by defining two weights: one for quality, and the other for beneficial attributes of water use. Usefulness Criterion is the product of quality and beneficial weights, emphasizing the equal significance of the two dimensions. Both of these weights depend on the system itself and the priorities of the supervising organization, which also are shaped by the objectives and values of the given society. These concepts lead to the definition of Macro, Meso, and Micro‐Efficiencies, which form a set of integrated indicators that explicitly promotes stakeholder involvement in evaluation and design of WRSs. Macro, Meso, and Micro‐Efficiencies should be maximized for both water totals, which is an integrated prerequisite for sustainability and is less promoted by competing stakeholders. To demonstrate this new framework, it is applied to published data for urban and agricultural cases and some results are explained.     

HISTORY OF THE FEDERAL-STATE COOPERATIVE WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH INSTITUTE PROGRAM1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a condensed history of the State Water Resources Research Institute Program, which evolved from the Water Resources Research Act of 1964, as amended, the Water Research and Development Act of 1978, Public Law (P.L.) 96–457, and the Water Research and Development Act of 1984. These laws authorized the following components of the Institute Program: (1) the annual allotment and matching grants program for the Institutes, and (2) the additional and saline water research programs for organizations in addition to the State Water Resources Research Institutes. The paper covers the legislative history of the Institute Program and reviews authorized and appropriated funds for the program from fiscal year 1965 to fiscal year 1986. It also discusses the Institutes’role in conducting and sponsoring water-resources research and development, training of scientists and engineers, and coordinating, disseminating, and transferring water-research results. The State Water Resources Research Program has been administered by the Office of Water Resources Research (OWRR) (1964–1974), the Office of Water Research and Technology (OWRT) (1974–1982), the Office of Water Policy (OWP) (1982–1983), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (1983-present).     

STATE WATER PLANNING: A FORUM FOR PROACTWELY RESOLVING WATER POLICY DISPUTES1

ABSTRACT: In the arid West, the development and implementation of water policy often results in disputes among water users, resource managers, and policy makers. Although significant attempts have been made to improve public involvement and dispute resolution in water resources planning, the traditional planning process has not historically played this role for a variety of reasons. Water resources planning can become a forum for proactively resolving water policy disputes by employing the principles of environmental dispute resolution. The purpose of this article is to explore the role of collaborative, consensus-building planning processes in resolving water policy disputes. The Montana State Water Plan is evaluated as an example of such a process, and a model state water planning process is outlined.     

SEARCHING THE WATER RESOURCES LITERATURE: INDEXING/ABSTRACTING COVERAGE FOR LEADING WATER RESOURCES JOURNALS1

ABSTRACT: The Water Resources Scientific Information Center (WRSIC) provides comprehensive indexing/abstracting for the water resources literature. To determine in one objective way the coverage of this information service from a user's point of view, an extensive sampling of the journal literature was used to determine extent to which 10 leading water resources journals are indexed and abstracted by the system. Coverage is so high that some users will want to change toward greater use of the system.     

COOPERATION IN WATER RESOURCES PROGRAMS: ALASKA'S EXAMPLE1

ABSTRACT: Alaska possesses a diversity and magnitude of water resources unmatched in any other state. With over 15% of the area of the whole United States, and 40% of the nation's total fresh water supply, but an extreme lack of basic hydrologic and climatologic data, cooperation among agencies and individuals concerned with evaluating, planning, and carrying out water resources programs is essential. Toward this end, the Inter-Agency Technical Committee for Alaska (IATCA) was established under charter from the Water Resources Council. Representation in IATCA includes virtually all Federal, State, and academic entities in Alaska having an interest in the water resources of the State. Existence of IATCA has permitted or facilitated numerous Alaskan water resources programs. Several are described briefly in this paper: A flood warning network in the Chena River basin; establishment of the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed in Central Alaska; preparation and periodic updating of the “Ten-Year Plan for Water Resources Data Acquisition”; current planning for an integrated “real-time reporting network” for hydrometeorological data within the State; and a framework for implementation of the Alaskan phase of the National Water Resources Assessment, currently in the initial phases. Accomplishments to date testify that it is indeed possible to “get it all together” in the broad field of “Water Resources” in the largest of our 50 states.     

THE ACCURACY OF WATER USE FORECASTS: EVALUATION AND IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of 1980 river basin water use presented in the reports of the 1960 Senate Select Committee on National Water Resources and in the Water Resources Council's First National Water Assessment of 1968 were compared to estimates of actual use in 1980 to assess the accuracy of efforts to forecast future water use. Results show that the majority of the forecasts were substantially in error. In general, the First National Assessment forecasts erred by a smaller margin, but tended to repeat the regional patterns of overestimation (underestimation) exhibited in the Senate Select Committee forecasts. Moreover, forecasts of the two groups that came within 20 percent of the 1980 withdrawals, in general were accurate, not because of superior prediction, but because of offsetting errors in forecast components. This performance leads us to conclude that water use forecasts, regardless of the time-frame or the forecast method employed, are likely to always be highly inaccurate. Accordingly, if such forecasting efforts are to be of value in contemporary water resources planning, forecasters should direct their attention toward methods which will illuminate the determinants of the demand for water.     

Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management1

Kang, Min‐Goo and Gwang‐Man Lee, 2011. Multicriteria Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainability in the Context of Watershed Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):813‐827. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00559.x Abstract: To evaluate water resources sustainability at the watershed scale within a river basin’s context, the Water Resources Sustainability Evaluation Model is developed. The model employs 4 criteria (economic efficiency, social equity, environmental conservation, and maintenance capacity) and has 16 indicators, integrating them using their relative weights. The model is applied to evaluate the water resources sustainability of watersheds in the Geum River basin, South Korea. A geographic information system is employed to efficiently build a database for the indicators, and the values of the indicators are normalized using the probability distribution functions fitted to the datasets of the indicators. The evaluation results show that, overall, the water resources sustainability of the watersheds in the upper basin is better than other areas due to the good environmental conditions and the dam management policies of South Korea. The analysis of the correlations among the model’s components and the comparison between the results of the model and the Water Poverty Index show that the model can provide reasonable evaluation results for the water resources sustainability of watersheds. Consequently, it is concluded that the model can be an effective tool for evaluating the states of water resource management from the perspective of sustainable development and provide a basis on which to create policies for improving any inadequacies in watersheds.     

Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program1

Kardos, Josef S. and Christopher C. Obropta, 2011. Water Quality Model Uncertainty Analysis of a Point‐Point Source Phosphorus Trading Program. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1317–1337. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00591.x Abstract: Water quality modeling is a major source of scientific uncertainty in the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) process. The effects of these uncertainties extend to water quality trading programs designed to implement TMDLs. This study examines the effects of water quality model uncertainty on a nutrient trading program. The study builds on previous work to design a phosphorus trading program for the Nontidal Passaic River Basin in New Jersey that would implement the watershed TMDL for total phosphorus (TP). The study identified how water quality model uncertainty affects outcomes of potential trades of TP between wastewater treatment plants. The uncertainty analysis found no evidence to suggest that the outcome of trades between wastewater treatment plants, as compared with command and control regulation, will significantly increase uncertainty in the attainment of dissolved oxygen surface water quality standards, site‐specific chlorophyll a criteria, and reduction targets for diverted TP load at potential hot spots in the watershed. Each simulated trading scenario demonstrated parity with or improvement from the command and control approach at the TMDL critical locations, and low risk of hot spots elsewhere.     

APPLICATION OF CRITICAL PATH METHOD TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT. The task of resource management, in this case water resources, is rapidly becoming more complex, particularly because decision making is often contingent upon various prior activities and sets of data. Comprehensive planning is required in order to prevent misallocation of resources or mismanagement in resource development. Such planning involves five general phases which are applicable to any problem faced by society: (1) problem identification; (2) formulation of alternatives; (3) evaluation of alternatives; (4) implementation; (5) review. There have been many attempts to simplify the planning process and effectively carry out these five phases. The experience of the Alberta Water Resources Division has been that the Critical Path Method is one of the most useful tools available today for planning. It involves two basic steps: (1) preparation of a network diagram which (a) identifies all the activities necessary for the completion of a project, (b) correctly sequences these activities, (c) allocates resources; and (2) mathematical computations for scheduling the activities. In other words, this approach breaks a task down into smaller units or activities for easier organization, scheduling, and performance for eventual completion of the project. This paper will illustrate the effectiveness of the Critical Path Method by discussing its application to actual water resources projects.     

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM BASED NONPOINT POLLUTION MODELING1

ABSTRACT: The reauthorization of the Clean Water Act reemphasizes the need for regional scale monitoring and management of nonpoint pollution loads. The magnitude of the task will require that local governments and their consultants integrate information systems and modeling if they are to manage the massive data sets and conduct the array of simulations that will be needed to support the decision making processes. Interfacing geographic information systems (GIS) and nonpoint pollution modeling is a logical approach. The objective of the present study was to use the 37,000-acre area defined by the Kensington Quadrangle sheet in Montgomery County, Maryland, to show that GIS-supported nonpoint pollution modeling is practical and economically attractive. The purpose of the GIS is to estimate the spatial distribution of nonpoint nitrogen, phosphorous, zinc, lead, BOD, and sediment using a model developed by the Northern Virginia Planning District Commission. The system allows the user to change land uses in subareas to simulate the consequences of additional development or alternate management strategies. The tests show that in-house development of this type of special purpose GIS is a practical alternative to vendor supplied systems and that the required databases can be developed quite reasonably.     

A STUDY OF WATER RESOURCES INFORMATION SERVICES1

A study designed to analyze two types of information services provided by the Water Resources Scientific Information Center (WRSIC) is described. This study was conducted to assess the monetary value and acceptability to users of the Selected Water Resources Abstracts (SWRA) Journal and the Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) System. Results indicate that both services were well received and provide a useful and valuable service to a variety of users active in the area of water resources.     

Review of Urban Stormwater Quality Models: Deterministic,Stochastic, and Hybrid Approaches1

Abstract: The growing impact of urban stormwater on surface‐water quality has illuminated the need for more accurate modeling of stormwater pollution. Water quality based regulation and the movement towards integrated urban water management place a similar demand for improved stormwater quality model predictions. The physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect stormwater quality need to be better understood and simulated, while acknowledging the costs and benefits that such complex modeling entails. This paper reviews three approaches to stormwater quality modeling: deterministic, stochastic, and hybrid. Six deterministic, three stochastic, and three hybrid models are reviewed in detail. Hybrid approaches show strong potential for reducing stormwater quality model prediction error and uncertainty. Improved stormwater quality models will have wide ranging benefits for combined sewer overflow management, total maximum daily load development, best management practice design, land use change impact assessment, water quality trading, and integrated modeling.     

基于SD模型的博尔塔拉河流域水资源承载力研究

从水资源承载力的研究方法入手,采用系统动力学方法进行水资源承载力定量化计算,在对博尔塔拉河流域地理环境现状和该方法建模思路分析的基础上,建立适合该地区特色的系统动力学模型（简称SD模型）。应用Yenism软件,把各参数代入方程,对博尔塔拉河流域水资源利用和需求进行动态计算。通过对模型计算结果的分析,验证了模型的合理性和可操作性,从而为博尔塔拉河流域水资源承载力的进一步研究提供了必要的手段,也为其他区域的水资源可持续利用研究提供了一定的借鉴。     

THE NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION REVISITED1

ABSTRACT: In 1973 the National Water Commission concluded its five-year study of national water policy by issuing a massive report containing over 200 recommendations for improvements in the way the Nation deals with its water resources. The Carter Administration is now engaged in another water policy review which incorporates many of the policies espoused by the National Water Commission. In this paper, presented at the 13th American Water Resources Conference in Tucson in November of 1977, the author describes the work of the National Water Commission and the actions taken on its recommendations.