模糊数学在成都市水资源评价中的应用

水资源价值是一个复杂的体系,主要由三方面要素构成,即:自然因素、经济因素、社会因素。以成都市为例,选取水质、水资源量、人口密度、国民收入作为评价要素,采用模糊综合评价方法对该市水资源价值进行了评价,结果表明:成都市水资源价格为2.93元/m3,明显高于目前的成都市平均水价。因此,应通过优化产业结构、扩大生产规模、提高用水效率和技术水平、加强环境保护与文化教育、合理控制人口等措施来提高水资源价值。     

Interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming for water resources management

In this study, an interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming (ITSFP) approach has been developed through incorporating an interactive fuzzy resolution (IFR) method within an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework. ITSFP can not only tackle dual uncertainties presented as fuzzy boundary intervals that exist in the objective function and the left- and right-hand sides of constraints, but also permit in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised policy targets are violated. A management problem in terms of water resources allocation has been studied to illustrate applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that a set of solutions under different feasibility degrees has been generated for planning the water resources allocation. They can help the decision makers (DMs) to conduct in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and constraint-violation risk, as well as enable them to identify, in an interactive way, a desired compromise between satisfaction degree of the goal and feasibility of the constraints (i.e., risk of constraint violation).     

A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resource decision making

The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process.     

Irrigation Water Allocation Using an Inexact Two‐Stage Quadratic Programming with Fuzzy Input under Climate Change

Agricultural irrigation accounts for nearly 70% of the total water use around the world. Uncertainties and climate change together exacerbate the complexity of optimal allocation of water resources for irrigation. An interval‐fuzzy two‐stage stochastic quadratic programming model is developed for determining the plans for water allocation for irrigation with maximum benefits. The model is shown to be applicable when inputs are expressed as discrete, fuzzy or random. In order to reflect the effect of marginal utility on benefit and cost, the model can also deal with nonlinearities in the objective function. Results from applying the model to a case study in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, China, show schemes for water allocation for irrigation of different crops in every month of the crop growth period under various flow levels are effective for achieving high economic benefits. Different climate change scenarios are used to analyze the impact of changing water requirement and water availability on irrigation water allocation. The proposed model can aid the decision maker in formulating desired irrigation water management policies in the wake of uncertainties and changing environment.     

Decision making under uncertainty using PEES–fuzzy AHP–fuzzy TOPSIS methodology for landfill location selection

The location selection for landfill municipal solid waste is an important issue in waste management. Selection of the optimal location requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and evaluation factors because of system complexity. Further, ranking of the alternative locations and selection of the most optimal and efficient locations for landfill waste are an important multi-criteria decision-making problem. In this study, the candidate locations for landfill are determined based on Political, Economical, Environmental and Social factors are assessed through decision-makers’ opinion and by the methodology that incorporates fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (fuzzy AHP) and fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (fuzzy TOPSIS). Specifically, the fuzzy AHP technique is applied to determine the weights of selected criteria impacting the location selection process, and the fuzzy AHP is adapted to model the linguistic vagueness and ambiguity, which can also be expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers. Furthermore, fuzzy TOPSIS technique is employed to rank the alternative locations. The applicability of this methodology is demonstrated by a case study of landfill waste location selection in the region of Casablanca, Morocco, and the results are compared with other techniques. Finally, to complete the treatment, a sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the impact of the preferences given by decision-makers to choose the best location.     

Vegetation and carbon sequestration and their relation to water resources in an inland river basin of Northwest China

In the Heihe River Basin in the arid inland area of northwest China, the distribution of water resources in vegetation landscape zones controls the ecosystems. The carbon sequestration capacity of vegetation is analyzed in relation to water resources and vegetation growing conditions. During the last 20 years, the vegetation ecosystems have degenerated in the Heihe River Basin. Simulation using the C-FIX model indicates that, at present, the total amount of NPP of vegetation accounts for about 18.16 TgC, and the average value is 106 gC/m(2)/yr over the whole basin. NPP has generally the highest value in the upperstream mountain area, middlestream artificial oases area, downstream river bank area, alluvial fan and the terminal lake depression where vegetation grows relatively well. The lowest value is found in the vast downstream desert and Gobi area. Protection of vegetation ecosystems and enhancement of carbon sequestration require such inland river basins as the Heihe River Basin to be brought under management in a comprehensive way, taking water as a key, to carry out a rational and efficient allocation and utilization of water resources.     

基于模糊聚类的旅游资源评价及开发策略研究——以长春市为例

旅游资源评价与分析是对旅游资源进行有效保护和合理开发的前提。从目前我国旅游资源评价工作来看,模糊评价法是较先进的方法。长春市旅游资源的优势体现在生态旅游、殖民遗迹旅游、影视文化旅游、汽车工业旅游、冰雪旅游等方面。采用单体总量、储量、储量丰度、优良级单体数量、优良级单体储量、优良级单体品质等6个指标,运用模糊聚类方法对长春市旅游资源进行了定量评价,其评价结果是比较客观和科学的。根据研究结果并结合长春市的实际情况,提出了长春市旅游资源开发的相关策略。     

Establishing politically feasible water markets: a multi-criteria approach

A multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model to simulate the establishment of water markets is developed. The environment is an irrigated area governed by a non-profit agency, which is responsible for water production, allocation, and pricing. There is a traditional situation of historical rights, average-cost pricing for water allocation, large quantities of water used, and inefficiency. A market-oriented policy could be implemented by accounting for ecological and political objectives such as saving groundwater and safeguarding historical rights while promoting economic efficiency. In this paper, a problem is solved by compromise programming, a multi-criteria technique based on the principles of Simonian logic. The model is theoretically developed and applied to the Lorca region in Spain near the Mediterranean Sea.     

Inexact rough-interval two-stage stochastic programming for conjunctive water allocation problems

An inexact rough-interval two-stage stochastic programming (IRTSP) method is developed for conjunctive water allocation problems. Rough intervals (RIs), as a particular case of rough sets, are introduced into the modeling framework to tackle dual-layer information provided by decision makers. Through embeding upper and lower approximation intervals, rough intervals are capable of reflecting complex parameters with the most reliable and possible variation ranges being identified. An interactive solution method is also derived. A conjunctive water-allocation system is then structured for characterizing the proposed model. Solutions indicate a detailed optimal allocation scheme with a rough-interval form; a total of [[1048.83, 2078.29]:[1482.26, 2020.60]] would be obtained under the pre-regulated inputs. Comparisons of the proposed model to a conventional and an interval two-stage stochastic programming model are also conducted. The results indicate that the optimal objective function values of TSP and ITSP always fall into the range of , while they are sometimes out of the range of ; the optimal solutions of decision variables also present this feature. This implies the reliability of IRTSP in handling conjunctive water allocation problems.     

Water resources issues of small island developing states

The water resources of most small island developing states (SIDS) are often very limited and require special consideration to ensure that they are developed and managed in a sustainable manner. Many small islands, typically located in the humid tropics, have no surface water resources and rely on limited groundwater resources in the form of thin freshwater lenses. The exposed location of small islands makes them particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as cyclones, floods and droughts. Pollution from population centres and from agricultural and other activities is an increasing problem. This article provides an overview of the water resources of small islands, and the main problems and issues related to water resources. Some suggested solutions, based on practical experiences, are offered for water resource assessment and monitoring programmes, and water resource development. Water resource policy, planning and management issues are also addressed, and suggested approaches for resolving some of the major water resource problems presented.     

Bilateral Monopoly: A Market for Intercountry River Water Allocation

/ Collaboration of countries with an aim to share fresh surface water resources promises to generate potential joint benefits. Unfortunately, existing agreements lack the perspective and capacity to produce any real action in efficient cross-border water allocation. When that problem is encountered by any two adjacent countries claiming riparian rights to the same watercourse, this paper suggests that apossible solution to be examined is a water market. This market requires the relevant countries to engage in a bargaining process as described in the theory of bilateral monopoly. The bargaining process should determine both the water quantity to be transferred and the price to be paid. However, there has to be a fair allocation of the joint benefits resulting from the transfer for a sustainable price solution. As an empirical illustration, the paper examines the case of river Nestos shared by Bulgaria and Greece in the southern Balkans. A net revenue function quadratic in water is specified and estimated using scarce data on three agricultural crops in Greece. Sensitivity analysis on the size and distribution of the net benefits is also performed.KEY WORDS: Bilateral agreements; Water markets; Efficient allocation     

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF WATER REALLOCATIONS ON AGRICULTURE IN IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Economics is concerned with the allocation of resources between alternative uses. Traditionally, in the western United States, water resources have been committed to agriculture and irrigation. Other competitive uses such as power, industry, and recreation are challenging this allocation. What are the impacts of shifting water out of agriculture into other uses, is a question that needs to be given consideration. Ilia paper attempts to evaluate the tradeoff between using farm land for either irrigated or dryland production and the resulting impacts on gross farm income and the average price of land. Baaed on historical data, reducing irrigated acreage and increasing dryland acreage could greatly reduce both farm income and the equity in farming. The model presented in this paper should be useful for evaluating the tradeoffs between dryland and irrigated land use, especially when there are gat differences in productivity such as those that exist in the inter-mountain region of the Western United States.     

COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE ENGINEERING DESIGNS1

ABSTRACT: Procedures are presented for comparing and evaluating alternative engineering designs for a particular water resources project. By using certain aspects of fuzzy set theory, it is possible to introduce both quantitative and qualitative considerations into the decisionmaking process. In addition, the viewpoints of the various interest groups involved with the water resources development can be realistically incorporated by the evaluation techniques for the alternative designs. Methods are given for eliminating undesirable alternatives and thereby obtaining a reduced set of possible feasible solutions to the problem. Because of the flexibility of the evaluation methods, the viable alternatives should not only satisfy economical, technical. environmental and other types of constraints, but these possible solutions should be politically feasible as well. A method is formulated for checking the sensitivity of the feasible results with respect to the factors that are considered in the analysis.     

An eco-environmental water demand based model for optimising water resources using hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms. Part I. Model development

We propose here an improved multi-objective optimisation model that considers eco-environmental water demand (EWD) for allocating water resources in a river basin over the long term. The model considers economic, social, and environmental objectives, and it improves on traditional optimisation methods by emphasizing not only the water demand of the artificial ecosystem but also that of the natural ecosystem. Water resource constraints are considered. The hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms (HGSAA) technique incorporates a genetic algorithm (GA) and a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm, which have strong local and global searching abilities, in order to solve the highly non-linear model and avoid local and pre-mature convergence. In the method, the water demands of users in the planning year serve as the basis for long-term optimisation using a forecasting procedure. In this study, the combined forecasting method based on the principle of optimal combination is built to forecast domestic and industrial water demands. The proposed model and method are subsequently used in a companion paper to optimise water allocation in the Haihe River basin in China [An eco-environmental water demand based model for optimising water resources using hybrid genetic simulated annealing algorithms. Part II. Model application and results 90 (8), 2612–2619].     

基于GIS的茂县水资源开发利用信息管理评价系统设计

为了实现对茂县水资源的高效利用,将水资源开发利用评价的知识与地理信息系统结合在一起,设计出一个基于GIS的水资源开发利用评价系统,从而对茂县的水资源合理利用和加大开发提供一个有力支持,以满足对茂县经济社会发展的要求。本文对该系统的需求分析、系统结构、数据、系统各功能、系统实现进行了说明。     

Using system dynamics to model water-reallocation

Improving the efficiency of water allocation has long been recognised as a key problem for the water resources management decision-makers. However, assessing the efficacy of management decision is difficult due to the complexity and interconnectivity of water resource systems. For this reason, it is vital that robust modelling approaches are employed to deal with the feedback loops inherent in the water resource systems. Whilst many studies have applied modelling to various aspects of water resource management, little attention has been given to innovations in modelling approaches to deal with the modelling challenges associated with improving decision-making. The aim of this study is to apply a System Dynamics modelling approach to improve the efficiency of water allocation incorporating a myriad of irrigation system constraints. The system dynamic approach allows the different system components to be organised as a collection of discrete objects that incorporate data, structure and function to generate complex system behaviour. Through the application of a system dynamic approach, a robust model (named the Economical Reallocating Water Model (ERWM)) was developed which was used to examine the options of re-allocating water resources that minimize the water cost all over an irrigated agricultural area. The EWRM incorporated a wide range of complexities likely to be encountered in water resource management: surface and ground water sources, water trading between sources, system constraint such as maximum ground water pumping, rates, maximum possible trading volumes and differential water resource prices. Two hypothetical systems have been presented here as an example. The results show that the System Dynamics approach has a significant advantages in estimating and assessing the outcomes of alternative water management strategies through time and space.     

INCOMMENSURABLES AND TRADEOFFS IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Society has many objectives, many of which are not commensurable. This incommensurability problem is generally referred to as the multiple objective problem and leads to the notion of tradeoffs. Various approaches to calculating tradeoffs in water resource development have been advocated by several authors. Many have made errors in the context of the conceptural model presented in this paper. It is argued the correct framework for tradeoff analysis is the neoclassical economic model. The relevant tradeoffs, then, are really price ratios. These, in turn, must be calculated in such a manner as to allow comparison of product mixes where the expenditure on resources is the same. This is where several authors have erred. An empirical example which illustrates the correct application of the model is presented.     

Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya

Water resources and land use are closely linked with each other and with regional climate, assembling a very complex system. The understanding of the interconnecting relations involved in this system is an essential step for elaborating public policies that can effectively lead to the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, an integrated modelling framework was assembled in order to investigate potential impacts of agricultural expansion and climate changes on Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) in the Taita Hills, Kenya. The framework comprised a land use change simulation model, a reference evapotranspiration model and synthetic precipitation datasets generated through a Monte Carlo simulation. In order to generate plausible climate change scenarios, outputs from General Climate Models were used as reference to perturbing the Monte Carlo simulations. The results indicate that throughout the next 20 years the low availability of arable lands in the hills will drive agricultural expansion to areas with higher IWR in the foothills. If current trends persist, agricultural areas will occupy roughly 60% of the study area by 2030. This expansion will increase by approximately 40% the annual water volume necessary for irrigation. Climate change may slightly decrease crops' IWR in April and November by 2030, while in May a small increase will likely be observed. The integrated assessment of these environmental changes allowed a clear identification of priority regions for land use allocation policies and water resources management.     

A FUZZY SETS MODEL FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

Mathematical modeling of complex water resources System problems, particularly water pollution control, is aided by fizzy set theory. Public participation in large scale federally funded water resources and pollution control projects is now a federal requirement and practice of various planning agencies. However, no systems based model for quantifying and measuring the effectiveness of public participation is known to exist. In this paper, we report a fuzzy set based model developed for doing this in areawide water resources planning The model is essentially cascade in nature and employs the concepts of fuzzy pessimistic and optimistic aggregations to cluster and analyze the evaluations of the basic factors. Sample computations of the model are provided.     

A dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (DFSP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. DFSP incorporates interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy vertex analysis (FVA) within a fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) framework to address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and dual intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. A real case for water resources management planning of Zhangweinan River Basin in China is then conducted for demonstrating the applicability of the developed DFSP method. Solutions in association with α-cut levels are generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels, which are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under compound uncertainties. The results can help to identify desired water-allocation schemes for local sustainable development that the prerequisite water demand can be guaranteed when the available water resource is scarce.