Noisy and definitely not normal: responding to wicked issues in the environment,energy and health

Attempts by researchers and policy-makers to address the ‘wicked’ issues which pervade environmental policy usually revolve around attempting – or recommending – both more participatory and transparent, and more systematic and evidence-based, policy-making. Post-normal science (PNS), with its ‘extended peer community’, has emerged as one approach, whilst others focus on procedural reforms of the policy process, particularly on enhancing democratic decision-making. This paper applies a novel analytical framework to a primarily documentary analysis of three cases we argue are wicked—Canadian regulatory review of health products and food, European union (EU) environmental thematic strategies, and United Kingdom (UK) energy and climate change policy. It explores how various responses to wicked issues are implemented, through the ‘lenses’ of PNS and, more generally, ‘democratic and effective decision-making’. It finds such responses are often limited by practical and fundamental barriers relating to handling of uncertainty, issue framing, participation, power, politics, and attitude to evidence. We draw conclusions about future research on PNS, particularly the need to more clearly relate theory to different strands of literature on the evidence–policy-making relationship, and to continue empirical testing.     

Evidence,politics and power in public policy for the environment

Despite a recent emphasis on ‘evidence based policy’ accompanied by an abundance of ‘green’ policy instruments, experience from the European Union and OECD countries shows that decisions which truly aim to balance environmental considerations with social and economic ones remain thin on the ground. Moreover, many policies seem to fall short of, or directly contradict what the available ‘evidence’ suggests is required. This is a synthesis paper bringing together literature from the fields of political science, geography, sociology and science and technology studies to outline some of the obscurities relating to the use of scientific evidence in environmental decision-making. In this paper, we suggest that an exploration of three key inter-related issues is necessary to develop a richer understanding of why evidence and policy interact as they do. These are the nature of evidence itself; the normative, moral or ethical ‘politics’ of policy-making; and the operation of power in the policy process. Our primary goal is to bring various literatures together to better conceptualise the evidence–policy relationship. In so doing, we outline specific challenges for knowledge producers who set research priorities, and design and direct research projects. We also highlight significant implications for policy decision-making processes.     

Green supplier development: analytical evaluation using rough set theory

Suppliers' development is a critical function within supply chain management. Green supplier development is also necessary for effective green supply chain management. Interestingly, there is a gap in the research on how an organization can effectively manage supplier development programs, and specifically green supplier development. The use of formal models to aid green supplier development management is virtually non-existent. This paper aims to fill this gap by introducing a formal model using rough set theory to investigate the relationships between organizational attributes, supplier development program involvement attributes, and performance outcomes. The performance outcomes focus on environmental and business dimensions. The rough set methodology utilizes an ‘incomplete’ information approach which is more realistic in some data poor environments. A multistage rough set methodology is detailed through an illustrative application. The methodology generates decision rules relating the various attributes to the performance outcomes. Included in the discussion are insights into how these rules for individual and aggregated performance (environmental, business, and joint performance) may be evaluated. Practical and research implications of this work are detailed in the paper.     

Can a prolonged use of a passenger car reduce environmental burdens? Life Cycle analysis of Swiss passenger cars

As a consequence of the introduction of limits on exhaust gas emissions and a target agreement between the Swiss association of car importers (auto-schweiz) and the Swiss government calling for a reduction in the specific fuel consumption, a considerable reduction of exhaust emissions of newly registered Swiss passenger cars occurred in the last 10 years. Also, for the near future an ongoing reduction of exhaust emissions of newly registered vehicles is expected. However, applying the concept of life cycle thinking, exhaust emission reductions may be outbalanced with an increase in specific car manufacturing expenditures and/or a longer use of the car. Thus, from the point of view of an individual car owner, a prolonged car use may be the environmentally preferable option. In order to investigate this question, a comprehensive analysis of the environmental performance of newly registered diesel and petrol passenger cars in the time period from 2000 to 2010 has been performed. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been employed focusing on three transport components: ‘vehicle travel’ (exhaust and abrasion emissions), ‘fuel chain’ (supply of fuels) and ‘car infrastructure’ (manufacturing, maintenance and disposal of cars). The presented model aims to gain insight into the issue of longevity and prolonged car use for the Swiss case, rather than giving ultimate recommendations. The analysis focuses on classical road pollutants (NO_x and PM2.5) as well as on fuel consumption reduction and CO₂. Moreover, impact assessment has been applied, employing a common approach: Eco-Indicator (EI) 99. The ranking of different car replacement options revealed prolonged car use as the environmentally better option. As a consequence of the continuous use of the car representing 2000 average technology, the components ‘vehicle travel’ and ‘fuel chain’ show a 10% and 9% higher performance, respectively. This effect is compensated by savings in ‘car infrastructure’ (26%). Uncertainty analysis has been performed by additional model runs with different parameter settings. Despite the fact that a considerably prolonged car use scores best for all additional model runs, the resulting differences between options further decrease. This holds particularly true, if a higher yearly average fuel reduction rate of 3% is assumed. Furthermore, applying an avoided burden concept for infrastructure modeling (Value Corrected Substitution (VCS)) shows the same effect. In both cases the resulting scores differ merely marginally between the considered options and would not allow for discrimination.As a consequence of these outcomes, it is not possible to give any general recommendation to Swiss car owners to extend the use of their cars, in the short term.     

Multiattribute utility analysis for addressing Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act

We believe that the fundamental issues associated with implementing Section 316(b) of the Clean Water Act are whether or not it requires a balancing of objectives and if it does, how that balancing should be done. If balancing is required, we recommend the use of multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). MUA is a formal, analytic approach for evaluating and comparing options for decisions with multiple objectives. It differentiates the two types of judgments needed for public policy decisions: (1) value judgments, which indicate what people want to happen as the result of a decision and their willingness to make tradeoffs, and (2) scientific judgments, which indicate what scientists or other technical specialists think is likely to happen based on the option that is chosen. MUA provides an approach for deciding what is an ‘adverse environmental impact’ and what is ‘best technology available’ based on site-specific considerations that can be consistently applied to all cooling water intakes. To illustrate the first step of a collaborative MUA process, we present a preliminary hierarchy of objectives constructed during a 1-day meeting held with regulators, electric utilities, and environmental groups to address the renewal of SPDES permits for four power plants operating on the Hudson River.     

基于指标规范值的环境质量突变模糊普适指数公式

针对传统突变模糊归一化公式的问题,在适当设定指标参照值和指标值的规范变换式基础上,使同类环境不同指标同级标准的规范值差异尽可能小,而不同标准的指标规范值差异尽可能大,从而可以认为用规范值表示的同类环境的各指标皆等效于某个规范指标。而任意m项指标的突变模型可用多个尖点突变(m=2)和(或)燕尾突变(m=3)两种突变模型组合表示,且具有可规范的指数分级标准值。基于指标规范值的环境质量突变模糊指数公式具有普适、统一和简单、适用的特点。     

Does a ‘notched’ nuchal translucency indicate Down syndrome fetuses or other adverse pregnancy outcome?

The aim of the present study was to assess the sonographic contour of the increased nuchal translucency (NT) and to correlate this with pregnancy outcome. Fifty sonographic images of fetuses with increased NT [>95th centile thickness of the normal range for crown–rump length (CRL) between 38 and 84 mm] were retrospectively assessed. In all the cases a complete pregnancy and even infancy follow-up (<36 months) was available. The NT appearances were subdivided into two forms: a ‘notched’ or ‘uniform’ appearance. The images were correlated with karyotype results [trisomy 21 (DS) vs euploid cases] and pregnancy outcome. Complicated outcomes were classified as being either DS fetuses, miscarriage or termination of pregnancy because of structural anomaly. Thus 30/35 (86%) of the euploid fetuses had a ‘uniformly’ increased NT, whereas 8/13 DS cases (62%) had a ‘notched’ appearance (Fisher's exact test, p=0.004). Additionally, 27/29 fetuses (93%) which had an uneventful pregnancy outcome had a ‘uniform’ increased NT, whereas 12/26 (57%) of the fetuses which had adverse pregnancy outcome had a ‘notched’ appearance of their NT (Fisher's exact test, p<0.001). Although it was not possible to correlate the sonographic data with post-evacuation microdissection findings, it is possible that a uniformly shaped, increased NT may be more representative of a developmental delay in a normal fetus. Conversely, a ‘notched’ nuchal surface may represent abnormal lymphatic or cardiovascular development more commonly seen in DS fetuses. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK XXX

A diverse range of response options was evaluated in terms of their utility for sustaining ecosystem services in the UK. Robustness of response options was investigated by applying a ‘stress-testing’ method which evaluated expected performance against combined scenarios of socioeconomic and climate change. Based upon stakeholder feedback, a reference scenario representing current trends in climate and socioeconomic drivers (‘business-as-usual’) was used as a dynamic baseline against which to compare results of other scenarios. The robustness of response options was evaluated by their utility in different environmental and social contexts as represented by the scenarios, and linked to their adaptability to adjust to changing conditions. Key findings demonstrate that adaptability becomes increasingly valuable as the magnitude and rate of future change diverges from current trends. Stress-testing also revealed that individual responses in isolation are unlikely to be robust meaning there are advantages from integrating cohesive combinations (bundles) of response options to maximise their individual strengths and compensate for weaknesses. This identifies a role for both top-down and bottom-up responses, including regulation, spatial targeting, incentives and partnership initiatives, and their use in combination through integrated assessment and planning consistent with the adoption of an Ecosystem Approach. Stress-testing approaches can have an important role in future-proofing policy appraisals but important knowledge gaps remain, especially for cultural and supporting ecosystem services. Finally, barriers and enablers to the implementation of more integrated long-term adaptive responses were identified drawing on the ‘4 Is’ (Institutions, Information, Incentives, Identity) conceptual framework. This highlighted the crucial but usually understated role of identity in promoting ownership and uptake of responses.     

Laboratory exposure systems to simulate atmospheric degradation of building stone under dry and wet deposition conditions

The design philosophy, construction and use of two exposure test systems are described, in which the objective is to simulate the degradation of stone samples under, respectively, the ‘dry’ and ‘wet’ deposition of atmospheric pollutants. Some element of realistic acceleration is possible in certain experiments. Particular emphasis is placed upon using known presentation rates of the pollutants, both in respect of typical depositions of pollutants and their oxidation products appropriate for an industrial atmosphere. In the dry deposition rig, SO₂, NO₂, NO, HCl and the oxidant O₃ are presented individually or together at realistic deposition rates. In the wet deposition apparatus, SO²⁻₄, NO⁻₃ and Cl⁻ at a pH of 3.5, simulating ‘acid rain’ but in a more concentrated form, are deposited. The dry deposition chamber can be operated at constant relative humidity (typically 84%) with pre-dried or precisely wetted stones to simulate episodic rain wetting, or using other methods of wet/dry cycling, which are also a feature of the wet deposition chamber. Heating and cooling of the samples is also possible, as is the use of shaped or coupled stones of different kinds such as are found in a building facade. The results are illustrated in terms of data on the weight change, the anion content of stone and run-off, the pH change of run-off and the total calcium reacted, using Portland stone, as a prelude to later papers in which behaviour of a whole matrix of stone types and environments is presented and discussed. Such an approach permits the eventual production of ‘pollutant-material response’ relationships and damage functions for comparison with and prediction of external exposure results.     

Utilitarian framings of biodiversity shape environmental impact assessment in development cooperation

Biodiversity is under threat from anthropogenic pressures, in particular in biodiversity-rich developing countries. Development cooperation actors, who traditionally focus on the improvement of socio-economic conditions in the South, are increasingly acknowledging the linkages between poverty and biodiversity, e.g. by referring to the ecosystem services framework. However, there are many different framings which stress the need for biodiversity integration and which influence how biodiversity and development are and/or should be linked. Moreover, there is a gap between the lip service paid to biodiversity integration and the reality of development cooperation interventions. This study analyses how biodiversity framings are reflected in environmental impact assessment (EIA) practice, and how these framings influence EIA and decision-making. The findings, based on an in-depth qualitative analysis of World Bank EIAs undertaken in West Africa, indicate the incoherent quality but also the dominance of the ‘utilitarian’ and ‘corrective’ framings, which respectively stress human use of nature and mitigation of negative unintended development impacts. Identifying and highlighting these discursive trends leads to increased awareness of the importance of biodiversity among all development actors in North and South. However, some framings may lead to an overly narrow human-centred approach which downplays the intrinsic value of biodiversity. This study proposes recommendations for an improved integration of biodiversity in development cooperation, including the need for more systematic baseline studies in EIAs.     

Knowledge brokerage designs and practices in four european climate services: A role model for biodiversity policies?

Environmental policies are broadly claimed to rely on sound scientific evidence because of the complexity, the uncertainty and the diverging political stakes that characterize issues like biodiversity decline or climate change. Classical advisory formats like assessments or standing advisory bodies have proliferated widely – especially at the global and national levels – yet exert only a limited influence on political decision-making, particularly in sub-national and local implementation contexts. Against this background, scholars have called for ‘bottom-up’ approaches to Science-policy interfaces that move from ‘problem to policy’. In the area of climate change, numerous ‘climate services’ have evolved at national, sub-national and even local levels, with the promise of being more decision-oriented. Four climate services in three European countries (the United Kingdom, Germany and Switzerland) are investigated regarding whether and how they institutionalize and enact knowledge brokerage in a credible, salient and legitimate way. Focusing on the institutional and strategic design principles of this advisory setting in climate policy, insights are generated for the biodiversity policy field, where comparable settings are still broadly lacking.     

黄河流域固废治理现状、问题与对策建议

黄河流域是我国重要的生态屏障和经济地带,高质量发展对黄河流域生态环境保护和资源再生利用提出了更高的要求.固体废物兼具“资源”和“环境”双重属性以及污染“源”和“汇”双重属性,其妥善治理对黄河流域生态环境保护和高质量可持续发展意义重大.本文系统阐述了黄河流域不同类型固体废物产生量和利用处置能力的空间分布和时间演化特征,在此基础上进一步分析发现,黄河流域固废污染防治存在的问题主要包括产业结构偏重、固废增量存量压力大,无害化处置存在短板弱项,底数不清、环境风险较大,流域上下游、固废水气以及污染物和温室气体等协同治理不足.根据流域资源禀赋、自然条件和行业产业特征,以减污降碳协同增效为目标,建议以“无废流域”建设为抓手,推动绿色低碳循环发展,补齐利用处置能力短板,着力防范重点领域风险,推进固体废物协同治理等.     

Modelling interactions and feedback mechanisms between land use change and landscape processes

Land use changes and landscape processes are interrelated and influenced by multiple bio-physical and socio-economic driving factors, resulting in a complex, multi-scale system. Consequently in landscapes with active landscape processes such as erosion, land use changes should not be analysed in isolation without accounting for both on-site and off-site effects on landscape processes. To investigate the interactions between land use, land use change and landscape processes, a case study for the Álora region in southern Spain is carried out, coupling a land use change model (CLUE) and a landscape process model simulating water and tillage erosion and sedimentation (LAPSUS). First, both models are run independently for a baseline scenario of land use change. Secondly, different feedbacks are added to the coupled model framework as ‘interaction scenarios’. Firstly effects of land use change on landscape processes are introduced by means of a ‘changed erodibility feedback’. Secondly effects of landscape processes on land use are introduced stepwise: (i) an ‘observed erosion feedback’ where reallocation of land use results from farmers’ perception of erosion features, and (ii) a ‘reduced productivity feedback’ whereby changes in soil depth result in a land use relocation. Quantities and spatial patterns of both land use change and soil redistribution are compared with the baseline scenario to assess the cumulative effect of including each of the interaction mechanisms in the modelling framework.Overall, total quantities of land use change (areas) and soil redistribution do not differ much for the different interaction scenarios. However, there are important differences in the spatial patterns of both land use and soil redistribution. In addition, by incorporating the perception and bio-physical feedback mechanisms, land use types with stable or increasing acreages are increasingly relocated from their original positions, suggesting a current location on landscape positions prone to soil erosion and sedimentation. Implementing the ‘reduced productivity feedback’ causes most of these effects. Another important outcome is that on-site land use changes trigger major off-site soil redistribution dynamics. These off-site effects are attributed to down slope or downstream changes in sediment transport rates and/or discharge caused by changes in land surface characteristics.The results of this study provide insight into the interactions between different processes occurring within landscapes and the influence of feedbacks on the development of the landscape. The interaction between processes goes across various spatial and temporal scales, leading to difficulties in linked model representation and calibration and validation of the coupled modelling system.     

National pathways to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): A comparative review of scenario modelling tools

The recently-adopted global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will have significant implications for national development planning in both developed and developing countries in the post-2015 period to 2030. Integrated, nationally-owned SDG strategies will be at the centre of national efforts to implement the new sustainable development agenda. The long-run processes and systems perspective that are inherent in the SDGs present complex analytical problems for policymakers and analysts. Scenario analysis and quantitative modelling will be important analytical tools to support national sustainable development planning, and there is an increasingly sophisticated suite of models available to decision makers. This paper reviews and assesses a broad range of different quantitative models that have the potential to support national development planning for the SDGs. The study develops a typology and inventory of 80 different models, and then reviews the comparative strengths, weaknesses and general utility of different models through an initial screening and subsequent multi-criteria analysis of short-listed models. Current gaps in model capabilities are highlighted in the context of providing analytical support for national development planning for the SDGs. While some existing models are particularly relevant, it is unlikely that an ideal model can analyse all SDG targets and variables of interest within a single modelling framework. Top-down ‘macro framework’ models are likely to be more useful for undertaking system-level or economy-wide scenario analysis driven by the national long-term goals and targets, and for exploring trade-offs and synergies among sectors. Bottom-up sectoral models will be able to support far more detailed option-level impact analysis of concrete interventions, technologies and investments. Combining both approaches within an analytical framework will provide a robust approach for analysis and decision-making. The results highlight a range of potential gaps in current modelling capabilities, and provide some new tools to assist with model selection.     

Genetic counselling and ethical issues with chromosome microarray analysis in prenatal testing

Molecular karyotyping using chromosome microarray analysis (CMA) detects more pathogenic chromosomal anomalies than classical karyotyping, making CMA likely to become a first tier test for prenatal diagnosis. Detecting copy number variants of uncertain clinical significance raises ethical considerations. We consider the risk of harm to a woman or her fetus following the detection of a copy number variant of uncertain significance, whether it is ethically justifiable to withhold any test result information from a woman, what constitutes an ‘informed choice’ when women are offered CMA in pregnancy and whether clinicians are morally responsible for ‘unnecessary’ termination of pregnancy. Although we are cognisant of the distress associated with uncertain prenatal results, we argue in favour of the autonomy of women and their right to information from genome-wide CMA in order to make informed choices about their pregnancies. We propose that information material to a woman's decision-making process, including uncertain information, should not be withheld, and that it would be paternalistic for clinicians to try to take responsibility for women's decisions to terminate pregnancies. Non-directive pre-test and post-test genetic counselling is central to the delivery of these ethical objectives. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Policy-makers perspectives on credibility,relevance and legitimacy (CRELE)

For more than a decade, a popular theory amongst scholars of science-policy interactions has been that research is most effective at informing policy and decision-making processes when it is credible, relevant and legitimate (CRELE) with multiple audiences simultaneously. In this paper, we argue that this triad reflects a primarily intra-scientific perspective, rather than the needs and considerations of policy-makers themselves. Using over seventy semi-structured interviews with policy-makers, we present alternative criteria for effective science-policy interactions based on experiences in the urban water sector. We find that applicability, comprehensiveness, timing and accessibility (ACTA) better summarises the most important aspects of scientific research when it comes to influencing decision-making, while finding that CRELE was a poor predictor of policy-maker concerns. Whilst the ACTA quartet effectively gives double-billing to the ‘relevance’ component of CRELE, credibility and legitimacy were much lower priorities for policy-makers interviewed. This article questions whether CRELE is a useful mindset for researchers interested in policy influence. These findings will be of interest to those engaged in debates related to effective science-policy interactions more broadly, and researchers that want to marshal policy influence more specifically.     

“一带一路”沿线国家碳排放:外商直接投资与发展要素的共同影响分析

“一带一路”倡议下,推动绿色低碳发展,共建碳达峰、碳中和目标下国际合作共赢的生态圈,已经成为“一带一路”沿线国家的共识. 本文基于“一带一路”沿线国家1997—2018年的面板数据,通过逐步回归、异质性分析和门槛回归方法探究外商直接投资(FDI)的碳排放效应. 结果显示:①“一带一路”沿线国家FDI显著增加碳排放,体现出“污染天堂”效应. ②我国提出的“一带一路”倡议注重绿色低碳发展,削弱了“一带一路”沿线国家FDI对碳排放的“污染天堂”效应,体现出我国在环境治理特别是应对气候变化方面发挥的引领示范作用. ③经济发展可削弱FDI对碳排放的“污染天堂”效应,然而经济快速发展特别是工业发展可显著增加碳排放. ④政策、创新和发展三类机制均导致FDI的碳排放效应发生显著变化,其中发展机制影响最大,创新机制的碳减排效果相对稳定. ⑤强化环境规制促进了FDI的“污染光环”效应,“一带一路”倡议则推动“一带一路”沿线各国加强了环境规制. 研究显示,为促进“污染光环”效应形成,应深化绿色“一带一路”,利用来自中国投资的低碳化特征,增加与中国的投资往来并提高负有环境责任FDI的比例. “一带一路”沿线各国也应加强绿色低碳科技创新,在此基础上协同政策、创新和发展三类机制,引导FDI投向绿色低碳领域. 此外,还应综合运用环境准入机制和环境经济手段,实现高质量发展.      

Land-use changes and natural reforestation in the Eastern Central Alps

In modern agriculture, only the cultivation of highly productive and easily accessible slopes remains profitable. As a consequence, inaccessible and steep areas are being increasingly abandoned. In this paper, the mechanisms of natural reforestation of abandoned areas are examined on three levels as a prelude to determine natural reforestation rates. The study sites selected on the municipality level (1:25,000) are situated in four agrarian structure regions in the Alps: ‘Innsbruck Land’, ‘Südtiroler Berggebiet’, ‘Unterland/Überetsch’ and ‘Carnia’. For more detailed data, studies on the level of a case study area (1:5000) and plot level (permanent plots) were carried out in the municipality of St. Leonhard in Passeier (‘Südtiroler Berggebiet’, South Tyrol, Italy). Data were collected through analysis of historic photographic material as well as by detailed field work. Significant explanatory variables of natural reforestation were determined using count data models. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was employed as analysing tool. Key findings are: (1) in the past 150 years, areas were abandoned in all analysed agrarian structure regions. Between 8 and 67% of the formerly used areas are now abandoned, and in the majority of these abandoned areas, forest re-growth is observed. (2) Seed dispersal and agricultural use are the most important variables influencing natural reforestation. The nearer an area is situated to old trees, the higher the reforestation rate. Grazing and mowing reduce reforestation. (3) The less intensively the land was formerly used and the longer the area was abandoned, the higher the tree density is. Whereby, the average sapling density is significantly higher in mixture communities than in grasslands or dwarf shrub communities. However, snow gliding and avalanches cause damage to trees that retard or hinder tree growth.     

The evolutionary continuum of limb function from early theropods to birds

The bipedal stance and gait of theropod dinosaurs evolved gradually along the lineage leading to birds and at some point(s), flight evolved. How and when did these changes occur? We review the evidence from neontology and palaeontology, including pectoral and pelvic limb functional morphology, fossil footprints/trackways and biomechanical models and simulations. We emphasise that many false dichotomies or categories have been applied to theropod form and function, and sometimes, these impede research progress. For example, dichotomisation of locomotor function into ‘non-avian’ and ‘avian’ modes is only a conceptual crutch; the evidence supports a continuous transition. Simplification of pelvic limb function into cursorial/non-cursorial morphologies or flexed/columnar poses has outlived its utility. For the pectoral limbs, even the classic predatory strike vs. flight wing-stroke distinction and separation of theropods into non-flying and flying—or terrestrial and arboreal—categories may be missing important subtleties. Distinguishing locomotor function between taxa, even with quantitative approaches, will always be fraught with ambiguity, making it difficult to find real differences if that ambiguity is properly acknowledged. There must be an ‘interpretive asymptote’ for reconstructing dinosaur limb function that available methods and evidence cannot overcome. We may be close to that limit, but how far can it be stretched with improved methods and evidence, if at all? The way forward is a combination of techniques that emphasises integration of neontological and palaeontological evidence and quantitative assessment of limb function cautiously applied with validated techniques and sensitivity analysis of unknown variables.