土地开发对城市经济增长的作用机制和传导路径——基于结构方程模型的实证检验

已有文献对土地开发、土地收入与城市经济增长间的关系进行了大量探讨,但未能揭示土地开发对城市经济增长的作用机制和传导路径,尤其是没有区分土地开发对城市经济增长的直接和间接影响,直接影响主要是土地开发收入用于城市基础设施建设带来的投资效应,间接影响包括土地开发收入通过改善城市基础设施和公共服务、增强对产业和人口的吸引力对城市经济增长的促进作用。本文构建了反映土地收入对城市经济增长的作用机制和传导路径的结构方程模型,利用285个城市2000—2010年以及2011—2013年的差分数据进行了实证检验。结果表明:土地开发收入显著促进了城市经济增长。2000—2010年间,土地出让收入每增长1个标准单位,城区GDP将增长3.09标准单位,其中土地开发收入的直接影响为0.35标准单位,间接影响为2.74标准单位。土地开发通过改善城市基础设施和公共服务、增强对产业集聚和常住人口吸引力的间接效应远大于用于城市基础设施建设投资的直接效应,在间接效应中,吸引产业集聚的影响大于吸引常住人口的影响。不同类型城市土地开发收入对城市GDP的直接影响和间接影响的程度不同。     

Model-based analysis of urban settlement process in eco-sensitive area of developing country: a study with special reference to hills of an Indian city

Rapid and unplanned expansion of a city into its eco-sensitive areas like hills, wetlands, and forests is becoming a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Understanding the process and causes of such unplanned urban expansion is of paramount importance for framing sustainable urban development policies. This paper presents a modelling concept that relates urban settlement in such eco-sensitive areas with potential socio-economic, demographic and geographical factors. The model is applied to an Indian city Guwahati, which is experiencing serious environmental degradation due to unplanned urban settlement in its eco-sensitive hilly areas. While topographical and settlement data were derived using satellite data in GIS platform, all other necessary data were collected from relevant government organizations. On validation of the multi-linear regression model, the coefficient of determination and the root mean square error are obtained as 0.938 and 1.7, respectively. Model results show that geographical parameters are less influencing as compared to the other socio-economic and demographic factors. Sensitivity analysis of urban settlements in hills of Guwahati city carried out with respect to the considered factors reveals that land value and free space availability in the surrounding area of a hill are the most sensitive parameters. This indicates that city development plans should give more importance to outward spatial expansion in plain areas with regulated land value and zoning scheme to minimize unauthorized settlement in eco-sensitive hilly areas of Guwahati city.     

A modeling analysis of the sustainability of ecotourism in Belize

Over the past two decades, ecotourism has emerged as an important conservation strategy, especially in the Tropics where a diversity of species and habitats are threatened by traditional forms of development. However, questions remain about the sustainability of ecotourism in terms of distributions of income to local people and degradation of ecosystems visited by the ecotourists. In this study, a computer simulation model was used to study the possible long-term patterns of ecotourism at the country scale for Belize, Central America. The model includes state variables for natural ecosystems and tourism infrastructure with a submodel for global oil supply. It was simulated over a 100-year period as an EXCEL spreadsheet with a time step of 1?year. In all of the simulations, a decline over time in income from ecotourists was found due to increases in the price of oil and due to environmental impacts by tourism. Conservation efforts can slow the declines, but ultimately, the system is shown to be unsustainable. The results are discussed in the context of long-term conservation potential in Belize.     

Using critical systems thinking to foster an integrated approach to sustainability: a proposal for development practitioners

Throughout the development sector, there is increasing recognition of links between the environment and aspects of development such as poverty alleviation, health, income generation, and agriculture. While furnished with a diverse range of perspectives and approaches, development practice is in need of ways to better conceptualize the interactions between the social, environmental, and economic dimensions of sustainability so that opportunities for simultaneous improvement in human and ecological well-being can be identified more readily. Critical systems thinking is proposed as a way for development practitioners to conceptualize and act toward the integration of these economic, social, and environmental dimensions and, in so doing, support communities to nurture both human and ecosystem well-being. Four desirable attributes of a critical systems thinking approach to development are identified based on development literature, critical systems literature, and the author’s research into sustainability in semi-rural communities in Vietnam. The four attributes are ‘a systems thinking approach;’ ‘an ethical base to action and choices;’ ‘critical reflection permeates processes;’ and ‘appreciation of diverse views and application of diverse approaches.’ These attributes are described and then offered as the basis for further discussion of the ways in which simultaneous improvement of human well-being and ecosystem health can become an integral part of development practice.     

Ranking Canadian universities: a quantitative approach for sustainability assessment using uD-SiM

This paper introduces a model that enables a comparison between universities based on sustainability indicators related to environmental, economic, social and educational aspects. The proposed model is based on a driving force-pressure-state-exposure-effect-action (DPSEEA) framework and is called uncertainty-based DPSEEA-Sustainability index Model (uD-SiM). The uD-SiM applies the concept of causality and develops sustainability index (SI), which is an outcome of nonlinear relationships of sustainability indicators in different stages of DPSEEA. In this paper, this fuzzy-based multi-criteria decision-making model is used to evaluate the sustainability of five Canadian universities, namely the University of British Columbia, the University of Toronto, the University of Alberta, the McGill University and the Memorial University. The final ranking results are compared with the Green report card ranking for 2010 through SI. The application of various actions and strategies that can be applied to different stages of the framework to improve sustainability in higher education institutions is also discussed.     

Evaluation of sustainability using an integrated approach at process and product level: a case study

The present world is facing problems like rapid depletion of natural resources and undesired environmental changes on a global scale. Manufacturing organisations are realising the importance of mitigating the present crisis and are adopting sustainable manufacturing principles. Since it is important to achieve sustainable manufacturing, sustainability assessment models were developed. Sustainability assessment models have their own drawbacks and may not provide clear scope for complete sustainable development. A system approach has been developed to overcome this shortcoming by integrating various sustainability assessment models that are already in practice. This article reports the advantages of collecting the advantages of individual sustainability assessment models and how the implementation of the integrated approach has helped to identify the current sustainability level and the scope for future developments in an automotive industry.     

Urbanization and sustainability: challenges and strategies for sustainable urban development in Bangladesh

Like other developing countries, urbanization in Bangladesh is a growing phenomenon, which is steady in nature but fretfully affects urban sustainability in the wake of lacking in good governance. Despite urban authorities are concerned about this issue, they often fail to address the problems due to the fact of uncontrollable and unpredictable rural to urban migration, and negligence of urban poor’s sustainable living and access to basic services. Virtually the rural poverty problem has been transposed to urban areas, particularly in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Inadequacy of infrastructural services, basic amenities and environmental goods; environmental degradation; traffic jam and accidents; violence and socioeconomic insecurity are the major challenges which are created through rapid urbanization. This paper provides a general understanding of urbanization in Bangladesh and tries to embrace related sustainability issues and challenges hindrance to sustainable urban development in Dhaka city. In addition, it presents a brief case study of water supply in Dhaka city which introduces an issue of ‘system hijack’. The paper concludes providing some strategies that might be helpful to the policy makers in formulating development policies for sustainable urban services.     

Rethinking assessment of drought impacts: a systemic approach towards sustainability

Although impacting primarily economic sectors, droughts may also initiate dynamic mechanisms that have socio-environmental consequences on sustainability of the impacted areas. To date, most research has dealt with the economic impacts of droughts, with minimal attention being paid to the dynamics of damaging mechanisms associated with socio-environmental impacts. Using a systemic approach, this paper develops a method of identifying the dynamic structures responsible for the consequences of drought. Considering the impacts of recent droughts in Iran, the paper presents a conceptual model, underpinned by a Limits to Growth archetype to explain how different drought impacts are triggered. Moreover, adopting the Viability Loops concept, a range of strategies and indices are suggested as monitoring tools to sustain socio-economic life in a drought-impacted area. The provinces of Hamadan (with water abundance), and Yazd and Isfahan (with water scarcity) in Iran have been selected to illustrate the proposed methodology. Results show a higher vulnerability to droughts in the water-rich region due to dependence on water abundance as opposed to the water-poor regions, which are well adapted to water scarcity conditions.     

Creating an academic landscape of sustainability science: an analysis of the citation network

Sustainability is an important concept for society, economics, and the environment, with thousands of research papers published on the subject annually. As sustainability science becomes a distinctive research field, it is important to define sustainability clearly and grasp the entire structure, current status, and future directions of sustainability science. This paper provides an academic landscape of sustainability science by analyzing the citation network of papers published in academic journals. A topological clustering method is used to detect the sub-domains of sustainability science. Results show the existence of 15 main research clusters: Agriculture, Fisheries, Ecological Economics, Forestry (agroforestry), Forestry (tropical rain forest), Business, Tourism, Water, Forestry (biodiversity), Urban Planning, Rural Sociology, Energy, Health, Soil, and Wildlife. Agriculture, Fisheries, Ecological Economics, and Forestry (agroforestry) clusters are predominant among these. The Energy cluster is currently developing, as indicated by the age of papers in the cluster, although it has a relatively small number of papers. These results are compared with those obtained by natural language processing. Education, Biotechnology, Medical, Livestock, Climate Change, Welfare, and Livelihood clusters are uniquely extracted by natural language processing, because they are common topics across clusters in the citation network.     

Manufacturing SMEs doing it for themselves: developing,testing and piloting an online sustainability and eco-innovation toolkit for SMEs

ABSTRACT

Public discourse frequently cites the damaging activities of large organisations on global environmental issues, but smaller organisations are rarely, if ever, featured. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) make up 99% of all businesses in the EU, cumulatively causing more industrial pollution and producing more waste than larger businesses. However, large companies are more likely to address sustainability issues than smaller ones. SMEs need help to change. In a collaborative approach, an online sustainability framework was developed to overcome the barriers contributing to the slow uptake in environmental management in SMEs. The views of owner-managers were incorporated throughout the development process. Best practice environmental tools and training were identified, which were designed in an SME-friendly way and made available online. This paper describes the development of the pilot Sustainability and Eco-Innovation (SEco) toolkit, followed by an analysis of its use. This research finds that a self-led toolkit was not enough to nudge SMEs to address environmental issues, despite being approved by owner-managers at each step.     

Social and economic sustainability of urban systems: comparative analysis of metropolitan statistical areas in Ohio,USA

The development of a comprehensive sustainability analysis tool for evaluating regional urban systems would present researchers, planners, and policy makers with a powerful tool to study and manage systems, with the goal of encouraging optimum social and economic trends, while maintaining long-term environmental protection that leads to sustainability. This article intends to aid in this effort by presenting a versatile methodology for assessing sustainability as a function of dynamic changes in significant characteristics of urban systems. Using statistical methods, this work presents a strategy for comparatively assessing the impact of social and economic characteristics on system stability at geographic scales which are critical to policy and management. Specifically, it employs the Fisher Information index as a measure of sustainability, in order to distinguish periods of stability. As an application of the approach, six Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Ohio (Cincinnati, Dayton, Cleveland, Akron, Columbus, and Toledo) were evaluated for a regional sustainability assessment. Results from the multiyear analysis suggest two distinct periods in these MSAs: one characterized by 30 years of socio-economic growth (1970–1999) and another (2000–2009) denoting a change in the trajectory of each system found to be related to economic recession. Columbus was identified as the most stable and sustainable of the MSAs during the study period. In contrast, Toledo exhibited the largest changes in economic trends, as distinguished by excessive increases in the growth rate of vacant housing units, unemployed civilian labor force, and inhabitants below the poverty level (2000–2009). Since such conditions are not desirable for urban systems, they are indicative of movement towards an unsustainable future.     

Environmental degradation and economic growth: evidence for a developing country

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation in Ecuador from 1971 to 2010. We estimate this relationship in a country with a heavy reliance on revenue from the exploitation of natural resources, the depletion of vegetation cover in recent decades and a low level of participation of industry in GDP. We show the existence of an inverse relationship between real GDP and vegetation cover, indicating that the output of this country is based on environmental degradation. Through Johansen co-integration tests, we check that there is a relationship of long-term equilibrium between the first differences of real GDP, vegetal cover and the urbanization rate. The ECM shows that there is a short-term relationship between vegetation cover, the GDP and the rate of urbanization. Finally, we did not found Granger causality between the variables. A policy implication based on our findings is that policies to protect the environment should not jeopardize economic growth and not limit the rapid urbanization in the country.     

Impact of peri-urban agriculture on runoff and soil erosion in the rapidly developing metropolitan area of Jakarta,Indonesia

Negative effects of land use change on water resources are among the most important environmental problems widely found in rapidly developing urban areas. Preserving green open spaces, including peri-urban agriculture, has been emphasized in urban planning to maintain or enhance the water catchment capacity of a landscape. However, the effect of agriculture on water-related landscape functions varies depending on the type, distribution, and management of farmland. This paper analyzes the dynamics of agricultural land and its effect on runoff and soil erosion, in order to support agricultural land management in Jabodetabek Metropolitan Area (JMA) with Indonesia’s capital Jakarta at its core. In 2012, agricultural land in JMA covered 53% of the total area, mostly located in the peri-urban zone. Peak Flow and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) models were used to quantify the increase of runoff and soil erosion in the three most important water catchment areas in JMA caused by an expansion of dryland agriculture and mixed gardens from 1983 to 2012. Critical zones, which generate most of the runoff and soil erosion, were identified in each of the catchment areas. While reforestation of farmland in these zones will be only an option on steep slopes given the great food demands and rural livelihood, adoption of soil and water conservation practices can make a substantial contribution to reduce flood risks and conserve the productivity of agricultural land. A specific set of policy incentives is recommended considering agricultural land use types distribution and their impact on runoff and soil erosion.     

New frontiers for sustainability: emergy evaluation of an eco-village

The emergy analysis was used to evaluate the sustainability of a village which aims to be ecologically friendly. The choice of focusing on the use of local resources including agriculture and farm goods, photovoltaic panels, renewable heating and cooling systems, recycled water from constructed wetlands etc., aims to obtain a sustainable village. Indices and ratios based on emergy flows have been calculated and used to evaluate the behaviour of the whole system. Their dependence upon the fraction of renewable and non renewable inputs as well as locally available versus purchased inputs from outside is stressed. A new index of sustainability (SI) is also applied to the case study. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Moving towards urban sustainability in Kenya: a framework for integration of environmental,economic, social and governance dimensions

Global urban development is increasingly becoming an aspect of focus as nations fight sustainability challenges. A review of the current literature on urban sustainability suggests that research on development of cities, in both developed and developing countries, is growing fast, with an emphasis on sustainable development. However, very little of this research contains an integrated framework to systematically identify and examine the various dimensions of urban sustainability and to measure and evaluate them appropriately. Cities are more than the sum of their sectors, and are complex and interdependent systems on whose dynamics the quality of life of millions of human beings and a good part of the economy depend. Environmental, economic, social and governance problems can create formidable barriers to urban sustainability. Governance remains a critically important dimension of urban sustainability, especially when discussing urbanization in developing countries, given rapid population movements and imbalances in socio-economic development. Understanding how cities function is fundamental to resolving these imbalances. The aim of this paper is to provide a review and analysis of the concept of urban sustainability and to propose the development of a holistic framework through integration of environmental, economic, social, and governance dimensions of sustainability. Such a review would make it possible to understand the complex dynamics of the four dimensions and to assess the progress and challenges in moving towards urban sustainability, taking the case of Nairobi, Kenya, as an example. The paper argues that, for urban sustainability in developing countries, more emphasis should be placed on the governance dimension, because this is where the biggest challenge exists, with increasing needs for immediate management of rapid urbanization.     

Sisters in sustainability: municipal partnerships for social,environmental, and economic growth

While debates about sustainable development tend to focus on national- and international-scale problems, sustainability programs and research generally focus on the regional, county, municipal, or even household level. Less research has focused on evaluating the benefits of pairing two cities (i.e., sister city partnerships) with different needs and capabilities to jointly enhance the potential for sustainable practices between the cities. Given shrinking state and federal budgets and the nascent national climate policy, how might US cities use existing resources to achieve greater levels of sustainability? This paper presents a new data-driven mathematical tool—the partnership assessment for intra-regional sustainability—that city planners can use to explore the prospects for improving sustainability practices by leveraging existing resources and establishing synergistic partnerships with neighboring cities. The efficacy of the tool is assessed through the presentation of a Southern California case study and the results of a psychological survey of Southern California residents. Results indicate that cities of different size and scale would benefit from synergistic sustainability programs that pool the resources and needs of both cities. The paper concludes with a discussion of potential societal implications, methodological issues, and barriers to implementation.     

Distributional impacts of climate change on basin communities: an integrated modeling approach

Regional Environmental Change - Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to the impacts of climate change, specifically those related with expected changes in water availability....