资源型城市环境规制的经济增长效应及其传导机制——基于创新补偿与产业结构升级的双重视角

对于中国多数资源型城市来说,改善生态环境与促进经济增长是当前面临的重要任务。一些研究认为治理环境污染可能加重"遵循成本",进而不利于经济增长;也有研究认为环境规制会通过"创新补偿"效应,增进当地产品竞争力,弥补企业成本负担并促进经济增长;此外,还有研究认为环境标准提高有助于区域产业结构升级,进而带动经济增长。为验证中国资源型城市环境规制对经济增长的影响及其传导机制,本文基于2004—2014年资源型城市数据,以样本城市GDP为被解释变量,以工业污染治理设备运行费用为解释变量,进行了面板数据实证分析,并观察了科技行业人员比重和第三产业比重的中介效应。结果显示:(1)资源型城市工业污染物治理对GDP总量和人均GDP的影响均显著为正;(2)在环境规制与GDP(或人均GDP)的正向关系中,科技行业人员比重的提升起到了部分中介作用,即存在显著的创新补偿效应;(3)除了传统观点看到的创新补偿效应,污染治理对产业结构的积极影响也在二者正向关系中有重要的中介作用,而且比创新补偿效应的作用更显著。本文的结论是,资源型城市环境规制未对经济增长造成不利影响,主要是由于经济资源从效益不佳的工业企业流向了第三产业,同时工业部门自身的创新潜力也已逐步凸显。因此,面对经济社会持续发展的压力,资源型城市要取得经济增长与生态环境的双赢,应当强化污染治理成本对企业技术进步的倒逼机制,进一步实现创新驱动发展,同时要构建多元产业体系,促进资源型行业与现代服务业的有效对接和深度融合。     

中国工业环境规制强度的行业差异及收敛性研究

针对不同行业环境规制强度的差异性,本文运用收敛理论研究了行业环境规制强度的敛散性。传统上利用单位成本或产出的污染治理费用表示的行业环境规制强度可能存在有偏性,本文基于单位污染排放的污染治理费用测算行业环境规制强度,利用Theil指数和收敛检验模型,分析了2001—2015年中国35个工业行业环境规制强度差异、收敛性质及收敛机制。研究发现:(1)一些行业的环境规制强度与其污染强度未表现出相应的强关联性。(2)中国工业行业环境规制强度差异呈现"M"型变化趋势,污染行业与清洁行业之间的环境规制强度差异呈现先发散后收敛的倒"U"型趋势。(3)泰尔指数及其分解还表明,污染行业内部的子行业间环境规制强度差异很大,且是造成工业行业环境规制强度差异的最主要来源。(4)工业行业环境规制强度存在较长时段的σ收敛和较短时长的俱乐部收敛的同时,还存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,即低规制行业向高规制行业看齐,不同行业环境规制强度向各自的稳态水平靠近,此外,污染行业环境规制强度收敛速度慢于清洁行业。(5)企业规模成长和市场化水平提升有利于促进企业提高环境规制水平。(6)对收敛机制的进一步研究表明,出口学习效应和进口技术溢出对行业环境规制强度变化的提升效应随着环境规制强度的提高而扩大,即两者对行业环境规制强度变化具有提升效应,但无促进其收敛的作用。扩大企业规模、提升市场化和对外开放水平,有利于提升企业应对环境规制的能力,并为下一阶段实施更为合理有效的环境规制政策提供支撑。     

How much real cost has China paid for its economic growth?

China’s economic growth has a serious impact on the environment and resources. How much real cost did China pay for its economic growth? This paper estimates the monetary costs of resource depletion, environmental pollution, and ecological degradation. The paper examines the geographic distribution of resource and environmental losses across 31 provinces. The findings allow us to reach the following conclusions. First, the national cost of resource depletion, environmental pollution, and ecological degradation in 2005 was 2.5 trillion RMB. It accounted for 13.5% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). Secondly, the cost of resource depletion, ecological degradation, and environmental pollution has a different spatial distribution. The cost of resources depletion mainly distributes in the central area, the cost of environmental pollution is in the eastern area, and the cost of ecological degradation lies in the western area. Thirdly, the cost of natural resources depletion is 1,672.5 billion RMB, accounting for 67.8% of the total cost of resource and environment. It indicates that economic development has a high cost of resource depletion.     

贸易开放、劳动力转移和就业

长久以来主流国际贸易模型中充分就业的假设使经济学界忽略了对贸易开放如何影响就业的分析,而哈里斯-托达罗模型则为此提供了一个可供扩展的框架.将哈里斯-托达罗模型扩展到存在贸易开放的情况后,本文发现如果一国的比较优势为制造品,贸易开放将会减少就业,这是因为制造品价格的提高会吸引更多的劳动力从农业向制造业转移,而制造业部门劳动力市场刚性的存在则阻碍了劳动需求的增加.为了研究我国改革开放以来贸易开放对就业的影响机制,并且考虑到就业的持续性,本文利用我国省际面板动态数据进行实证研究,并使用国有企业和政府部门劳动力占比度量我国劳动力市场刚性程度.实证研究结果发现当不考虑劳动市场刚性时,由于我国的比较优势是劳动密集型产品,贸易开放能增加就业;而当劳动力市场刚性较大时,劳动力转移过程反而促使贸易开放减少我国的就业,恰好验证了本文的理论分析结果.该文的政策含义则意味着政府应努力降低劳动力市场刚性以促使贸易开放增加就业.     

规划管制下土地发展权受限的多情景测度:数量与价值

在统筹推进国土空间规划及用途管制的背景下,揭示土地发展权受限的数量及其价值,对于完善中国空间治理体系、解决不平衡不充分发展尤其是区域差异问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章以湖北省为"生态资源优势区"代表性省份,首先运用柯布-道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数模型测算各生产要素在农业与非农业部门中对经济增长的弹性以及土地资源在两部门的边际收益,揭示土地发展权受限的客观现实和成因;然后基于缩小湖北省与"经济发展优势区"经济发展差距的不同情景,测度2009—2018年湖北因处于生态资源优势区而使土地发展权受限的数量与价值。结果显示:(1)土地要素投入对湖北省经济增长具有重要影响。2009—2018年,湖北省非农部门经济增长仍依赖土地要素投入,且土地要素对经济增长的贡献难以被其他生产要素替代。(2)高额的机会成本是土地资源由农业部门向非农部门转移的重要潜在驱动力。2009—2018年,湖北省非农部门的土地边际收益是农业部门的17.03~44.14倍,且呈逐年递增趋势,规划管制的存在导致了土地发展权受限。(3)规划管制背景下,对受限的土地发展权进行补偿具有必要性和可行性。在经济发展水平差距缩小10%~100%的不同情景下,2009—2018年湖北省土地发展权受限数量处于0.53×104~5.35×104hm2之间,对应的价值量占同时期"经济发展优势区"总GDP的比重较低,为0.02%~0.19%。基于此,应开展土地发展权受限补偿的制度建设,从土地发展权产权确认和利益分配机制改革两方面量化和落实土地发展权,并以对土地发展权的底线补偿情景为起点逐步提高土地发展权补偿水平,直至实现完全补偿。     

Environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile

This study uses information from the input–output tables 2008, national accounts, household survey, and environmental pollutant emissions to elaborate an environmentally extended social accounting matrix for Chile. A linear multisector model is then generated in order to determine the effects that a sectoral shock on demand would have on economic development. The results show the typical economic trade-offs, concluding that it is necessary to consider economic relationships in order to assess the full impact of a sector on economic activity, income distribution, and pollution. The sectors commerce, construction, and food industry strongly increase economic growth and employment and decrease inequality. Nonetheless, when also considering the environmental effects, no sectors can be identified that contribute systematically and significantly to all the areas of economic development.     

Assessing the economy-wide effects of climate change adaptation options of land transport systems in Austria

Due to climate change, transport systems are expected to become increasingly stressed by extreme weather and gradual climatic changes, resulting in direct costs within the affected sectors as well as indirect costs from sectoral interlinkages. To reduce these costs, sector-specific climate change adaptation measures are needed, raising the question of the net benefits of adaptation at a macroeconomic level. However, despite their importance such assessments of impacts and adaptation at the macrolevel are scarce and coarse in their implementation. This paper contributes to fill this research gap by analyzing specific adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors in Austria using a computable general equilibrium model. The findings are as follows: First, direct impact costs more than double due to macroeconomic linkages. Hence, the indirect costs are found to be larger than the direct costs. Second, when analyzing adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors, without capturing any indirect effects, benefit–cost ratios imply a clear benefit only for the rail sector. However, when indirect effects via sectoral interlinkages are also captured, adaptation measures in both sectors, road and rail, clearly pay off. Climate change-induced GDP and welfare losses are reduced by 55 and 34% and lead to positive employment effects. Third, even at rather low damage reduction potentials, adaptation leads to a net benefit at the macroeconomic level.

     

中国区域污染与经济增长实证:基于面板数据联立方程

考虑区域污染与区域经济增长的双向作用机制,构建联立方程模型,利用我国1998-2008年30个地区的面板数据,实证研究了6类区域污染物指标与区域经济增长的内在关系,对环境库兹涅茨曲线假说进行验证,探讨区域污染的主要影响因素。研究结果表明:①仅工业粉尘、工业SO2与GDP存在倒U型曲线关系,符合环境库兹涅茨曲线假说;工业废水、工业固废与GDP存在正的线性关系,工业废水中污染物化学需氧量、工业烟尘与GDP存在负的线性关系,不支持环境库兹涅茨曲线假说。指出并非经济发展到一定水平,区域污染问题就会得到全面解决。②人口规模对区域污染排放影响不显著;科技水平和能源利用率的提高能有效降低区域污染排放;政府环保管制未能有效控制区域污染排放;加大贸易开放程度对污染排放影响有正有负;产业结构不合理会加剧区域污染排放。③工业烟尘、工业SO2污染对区域经济增长有反作用。现阶段,我国区域污染对区域经济增长的反馈机制较弱,给我们敲醒了环保警钟。指出转变经济增长方式,走经济增长与环境保护协调发展的路子是我国今后的必然选择。     

劳动力转移、性别差异与农地流转及合约选择

通过构建“劳动力转移-性别差异-农地流转及合约选择”分析框架,分析劳动力转移性别差异背后的行为经济学含义,进而探讨不同性别的劳动力转移对农户农地流转供给决策与合约选择的差异化影响机制。理论研究表明,女性在家庭中起粘结家庭成员的作用,女性劳动力非农就业更能体现家庭的“离农”,因而女性劳动力的非农就业行为对农户农地流转供给决策具有更明显的促进作用;男性是农户家庭在村庄中排他能力的标志,具有不可忽视的农地流转风险规避功能,因而男性劳动力的外出就业距离对农户农地流转的合约选择起决定性作用。利用全国9省(区)4772个农户样本数据进行实证分析,计量结果表明:①女性劳动力非农就业比例每增加10%,农户转出农地面积占承包地面积比例增加1.06%;②男性劳动力县外就业比例每增加10%,农户转出农地时签订关系型合约的可能性增加1.11%;③男性劳动力县外就业比例每增加10%,意愿合约形式为无合同的可能性增加0.63%,意愿合约形式为口头合同的可能性增加0.29%,意愿合约形式为书面合同的可能性减少0.91%。这意味着,为了劳动力流转市场与农地流转市场更流畅地互动,应为农村女性劳动力营造一个更加合适、有利和公平的非农就业环境,这可成为未来农村劳动力就业扶持政策的重要方向。另一方面,促进正式契约与关系型合约的有机衔接,有利于农地流转合约的正式化与规范化,从而为农地流转市场的健康发育提供有力保障。     

农地流转与农户生计策略联合决策研究

基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年农村住户数据,采用多元probit模型实证检验了农户土地流转决策、农户种植经济作物决策和非农劳动力转移决策之间的相互影响。研究发现:①农户土地流转与劳动力非农转移和经济作物种植生计决策相互关联。总体而言,土地转入与种植经济作物决策正相关,与非农劳动力转移决策负相关。土地转出与非农劳动力转移决策正相关,与种植经济作物决策负相关。②土地流转与农户非农劳动力转移和经济作物种植等生计策略的关系与农地流转规模相关,小规模和中等规模的土地转入与非农劳动力转移之间未有显著关系,与经济作物种植决策具有显著正向关系,但大规模的土地转入与农户经济作物种植决策和非农就业决策显著负相关。③土地流转是否影响农户生计多样化决策还取决于地区机械化程度。机械化程度较高的平原地区土地转入决策与农户非农劳动力转移和经济作物种植决策未有显著关系,而机械化程度较低的高山、丘陵、高原等地区土地转入决策与农户种植经济作物和非农就业决策分别存在正相关和负相关关系,表明随着机械化对农业劳动力替代程度的增强,土地流转对农户劳动力配置的影响效应减弱。政策建议是:①统筹推进农村土地、劳动力市场发展,推动农户土地流转参与,促进转出户生计向非农专业化转移,促进转入户农地适度规模经营;②完善农机社会化服务市场,提高农机和农技融合使用深度和广度,提高农机对农业劳动力的替代弹性,增强转入户农业劳动力农地规模经营的能力,增加农业生产比较收益。     

Effects of technical and allocative inefficiencies on energy and nonenergy elasticities: an analysis of energy-intensive industries in China

Elasticity of substitution is traditionally estimated while ignoring technical and allocative inefficiencies, which could bias the estimates. We estimate elasticity of substitution for Chinese energy-intensive sectors by incorporating these inefficiencies. The results show most of the sectors are low substitutes between input factors and stress important differences among energy-intensive sectors. Concerning the cross-price elasticity for energy, with respect to capital (labor), the sectors are mainly characterized by weak substitutability or complementary. These imply the production structure is quite rigid and capital cannot be so readily used as a substitute for energy.     

Rural migrants’ participation in old-age insurance: a case study of the inter-provincial migrant workers from Sichuan,China

Old-age pension, a fundamental part of the Chinese social security system, is perceived by the Chinese government as the last support for rural-to-urban migrant workers upon retreating from the labor market. Using survey data collected by the authors, this paper examines a host of factors which influence migrant workers’ participation in the old-age scheme. The result shows that individual characteristics, employment status, attitudes toward old-age support and perception of the old-age pension system significantly differentiate two groups of migrant workers between those that have participated in and their counterparts who have not participated in the old-age pension schemes. Among a number of factors, age, educational attainment, holding labor contract, etc. are found to be significant factors influencing migrants’ behavior participating (or not participating) the available age-pension schemes. Policy implications for how to improve the rate of participation in existing old-age pension schemes among migrant workers are drawn from the findings.     

Explaining Agricultural Expansion, Resource Booms and Growth in Latin America

The following paper examines the main factors determining long-run agricultural land expansion in Latin America compared to other tropical regions. Given the importance of natural resource-based sectors for most economies in Latin America, the impact of price-induced "resource booms" on economic growth in the region is explored. In addition, the paper examines whether there is an inherent "boom and bust" pattern of economic development associated with agricultural land expansion in Latin America, and the extent to which economic policies in the region exacerbate this problem. The paper concludes by examining the role of targeted policies in alleviating the structural obstacles to Latin American agricultural and economic development.     

粮食补贴政策与农户非农就业行为研究

粮食补贴政策旨在提高农民种粮积极性,促进粮食增产和农民增收,随着国家粮食补贴资金投入力度的逐年加大,农民种粮积极性不断提高,家庭劳动时间分配很可能因此而产生调整。本文首先通过构建嵌入粮食补贴政策的农户劳动分配决策行为模型,理论分析粮食补贴政策对农户非农就业行为的影响,然后基于粮食主产区安徽省农户的实地调查数据,采用Tobit模型分析方法,实证分析粮食补贴政策对农户非农劳动时间供给的影响。研究结果显示:粮食补贴政策对农户非农劳动时间供给具有显著的负面影响,一定程度上有助于调动农民从事农业和粮食生产的积极性;然而,在农业内部工资率低于非农均衡工资率的情况下,这种由粮食补贴政策诱发的农户劳动就业行为变化对家庭经济收入的负面影响将超过当前的转移支付水平;若粮食补贴政策旨在稳定或增加农民收入,那么当前的补贴政策需要进行根本性调整。     

Water pollution footprints induced by industrial import and export in China

With the rapid development of foreign trade in China, industrial import and export has been an absolute subject in recent years. The huge trade surplus of import and export trade of industrial products brings not only high profits, but also pollution costs as well. Based on the concept of water pollution footprints (WPFs), this study applies the input-output method and calculates pollutant-producing coefficients of 20 major industrial sectors in China and investigates the WPFs caused by the import and export trades of these industrial sectors. The research results show that WPF resulting from exports exceeds that of imports from 2011 to 2015 in China. The net inflow of pollution footprint is mainly from paper mills, printing and stationery manufacturing, and textile industry; whereas a great number of WPFs are transferred to other countries by these sectors, such as metal mining and dressing industry and oil and natural gas exploitation industry.     

Cost-Effective Control of Ground-Level Ozone Pollution in and around Beijing

Ground level ozone pollution has become a significant air pollution problem in Beijing. Because of the complex way in which ozone is formed, it is difficult for policy makers to identify optimal control options on a cost-effective basis. This paper identi-fies and assesses a range of options for addressing this problem. We apply the Ambient Least Cost Model and compare the eco-nomic costs of control options, then recommend the most effective sequence to realize pollution control at the lowest cost. The study finds that installing of Stage II gasoline vapor recovery system at Beijing’s 1446 gasoline stations would be the most cost-effective option. Overall, options to reduce ozone pollution by cutting ve-hicular emissions are much more cost-effective than options to "clean up" coal-fired power plants.     

Supplier assessment based on corporate social responsibility criteria in Indian automotive and textile industry sectors

Mandatory disclosure of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reporting forces supply chain members to consider CSR issues in developed countries. Researchers have viewed CSR content within different themes, such as human (social), ethical and environmental perspectives. So far, in India, very little research has been done to study the impact of human issues in employment (social), ethical issues in business operations and pollution (environmental) issues at both regional and specific sector level. This paper emphasises the perspective view of supplier selection, considering CSR issues as opposed to traditional methods using conventional selection criteria such as cost, quality, delivery and service. It employs six CSR criteria such as discrimination, abuse of human rights, child labour, long working hours, unfair competition and pollution to assess small- and medium-sized suppliers who produce and deliver products to the automotive and textile industry sectors. The results of this study indicate that to prevent discrimination against pay variation, minimise cases of abuse of human rights and incidence of child labour, suppliers must put in place proper policies and procedures regarding employment contract, identification and verification records. Furthermore, to reduce unfair competition, suppliers of both automotive and textile sectors may introduce processes for investigating reports of unethical conducts and take severe disciplinary action. The suppliers of both automotive and textile sectors believe that the competitive advantage can be achieved through environmental oriented business practices. However, they differ in their approaches in attaining this objective.     

Cost-Effective Control of Ground-Level Ozone Pollution in and around Beijing

Abstract

Ground level ozone pollution has become a significant air pollution problem in Beijing. Because of the complex way in which ozone is formed, it is difficult for policy makers to identify optimal control options on a cost-effective basis. This paper identifies and assesses a range of options for addressing this problem. We apply the Ambient Least Cost Model and compare the economic costs of control options, then recommend the most effective sequence to realize pollution control at the lowest cost. The study finds that installing of Stage II gasoline vapor recovery system at Beijing’s 1446 gasoline stations would be the most cost-effective option. Overall, options to reduce ozone pollution by cutting vehicular emissions are much more cost-effective than options to “clean up” coal-fired power plants.     

Industrialization, Environment and Health： the Impacts of Industrial SO2 Emission on Public Health in China

In this paper, we construct a model in which the impact of pollution on health is exerted through both direct and indirect channels. The indirect channel is captured by a production function in which the principal health-improving factor, income growth, can be realized only in the cost of pollution increase. This model is then tested by the aggregated chronicle disease data in over 78 Chinese counties. Our results show, after attaining the threshold of 8 μ g/m^2, continuous increase in industrial SO2 emission density will lead the ratio of population suffering chronicle diseases, among which respiratory diseases occupy a significant proportion, to rise. However, owing to technological progress in pollution control activities, the needed SO2 emission to produce one unit of GDP diminishes with time. Therefore, the negative effect from pollution augmentation on public health seems to be recompensed more and more by the positive effect of economic growth.     

过犹不及:土地资源资本化与实体经济发展

在经济转型发展战略背景下,探讨土地资源资本化及其对实体经济发展的影响具有重要理论和现实意义。不同于已有研究均质化地理解土地资本化,该研究从"度"的视角切入,认为土地资本化存在适度与过度之分,由此分析了不同程度土地资本化对实体经济的影响,并基于中国工业企业微观数据予以实证考察,最后讨论了中国当前土地过度资本化风险与原因。研究表明:(1)土地资本化存在限度,限度范围内促进实体经济增长,越过限度则抑制实体经济增长,两者呈"倒U型"关系,该结论在多种模型设定下均保持稳健;(2)当土地资本化越过最优限度,将激起全要素成本快速上涨,导致利润空间收窄,引致实体经济萎缩;(3)从工业企业大样本微观数据估计出的"倒U型"拐点来判断,当前中国城市经济已面临较严重的土地过度资本化问题,东中西部相继进入过度资本化高风险状态,这可能损害实体经济而影响中国经济的增长前景;(4)进一步的分析表明,中国式分权造成的地方政府"为增长而竞争"可能是土地资本化持续深化乃至过度化的重要原因,调整政治激励方式应是寻求土地过度资本化理性回归的着力点。研究提供了重要政策启示:土地资本化是一把"双刃剑",趋利避害的关键是把握"度"的原则;中国必须通过深化政绩考核、土地市场和土地税制等多方面协同改革来纠正土地过度资本化偏向;面向高质量发展与实体经济转型升级,主动转变土地资本化支撑方式,改革土地资本收益支出结构,加快支出重心向新基建、科教部门和民生部门转移。