Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)

This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland–urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.     

Examination of land use/land cover changes,urban growth dynamics,and environmental sustainability in Chittagong city,Bangladesh

As in many other developing countries, cities in Bangladesh have witnessed rapid urbanization, resulting in increasing amounts of land being taken over and therefore land cover changing at a faster rate. Until now, however, few efforts have been made to document the impact of land use and land cover changes on the climate, environment, and ecosystem of the country because of a lack of geospatial data and time-series information. By using open source Landsat data integrated with GIS technologies and other ancillary data, this study attempts to classify land use and create land cover maps, enabling post-classification change detection analysis. By this method, we document the spatial and temporal trajectory of urban expansion in Chittagong, the second largest city in Bangladesh, over a 36-year period. The findings suggest that, over the study period, 56 % of the land cover has undergone change, mainly because of the expansion of built-up areas and other human activities. During the 36-year period, the built-up area around Chittagong city has expanded by 618 %, with an average annual rate of increase of 17.5 %. As a result of rapid urbanization, the vegetated hills near urban development areas face serious threats of further encroachment and degradation, given that 2178 ha of hills have already been intruded over the study period. Because urbanization processes in Bangladesh have traditionally been viewed as the result of population growth and economic development, very little work has been done to track the potential growth trajectory in a physical or spatial context. This study, therefore, will contribute to the current understanding of urban development in Bangladesh from a temporal and spatial point of view. Findings will be able to assist planners, stakeholders, and policy makers in appreciating the dynamism of urban growth and therefore will facilitate better planning for the future to minimize environmental impacts.     

Toward achieving a sustainable management: characterization of land use/land cover in Sokoto Rima floodplain,Nigeria

Land use change is the main driving force of global environmental change and is considered as very central to the ongoing debate on sustainable development. Even though large volume of literature materials is available of land use/land cover (LU/LC) change for many areas, very little is known of it in the floodplain of the Sokoto Rima River Basin of Nigeria despite the basin’s strategic importance. Thus, this study characterized the basin’s LU/LC and its change using computer-based digital classification of near-anniversary Landsat 5 TM imagery of November 23, 1998, and Landsat 8 OLI of December 2, 2013. The results of the digital classification were complimented with field-based observations on major observable characteristics of every LU/LC identified. Thirteen classes (forest area, dense grassland, grassy fallow, grazed open grassland, open cultivation, open grain fallow farmland, pepper cultivation, rice farmland, scrubland, sugarcane farmland, dry bare land, sand deposit and wetland/water) were characterized and the nature and extent of their changes assessed. 40 % of the basin’s uses is under cultivation, 22 % is under fallow, 27 % is either degraded or non-cultivable, while 11 % is forested. Change events include forest loss, increase in area cultivated, expansion of shrub/scrubland and pervasiveness of grazing. The changes were more pronounced in the upper than either the central and southern segments of the basin. In general LU/LC changes in the basin are reflection of increased human population pressure and effects of climate change. The LU/LC patterns and changes suggest underutilization and mismanagement of the floodplain which have impact on soil, hydrology and biodiversity with serious implication for livelihood and food security. The study recommends that interventions are needed to promote enhanced and sustainable management of land, water and vegetation resources in the basin, with particular emphasis on empowering the local land users to participate actively toward sustainable management of the floodplain.     

Changing land use/cover patterns and implications for sustainable environmental management in the Irangi Hills,central Tanzania

This article examines the changes in land-use/cover types in the Irangi Hills, central Tanzania during the last 45 years and how such changes have influenced environmental and agricultural sustainability in the area. The spatial and temporal changes of land-use/cover were analysed through aerial photographs interpretation. Local perceptions and experiences of changes were addressed through household interviews and field observations. Results from this study show that during the last 45 years open and wooded grasslands, and other tree-cover types covered about 40% of the land area, ranging from 29% in 1960 to 43–45% between 1977 and 1992. Also, during the same period both the total area and spatial distribution of cultivated fields varied greatly. The cultivated area increased from 31% in 1977 to 35% in 1992, mainly due to agricultural expansion into areas formerly used for grazing and in sandy watercourses that shrunk by 55% between 1977 and 1992. The spatial distribution of the different land-use/cover types is influenced by variations in the scale of soil erosion and soil-conservation initiatives implemented in the Irangi Hills since the early 1970s. However, with increasing pressure on the land, and the declining capacity of the soil conservation authority, sustaining agricultural production in the area remains a major challenge.     

Quantification of land use/land cover changes in Pearl River Delta and its impact on regional climate in summer using numerical modeling

This study quantified land use/land cover (LULC) changes in Pearl River Delta (PRD) of South China and its impact on regional climate over the last two decades. The LULC change analyses were accomplished by applying a change detection method to a set of Landsat imagery and ancillary data acquired from 1970s to 2000. The results indicate that the urban expansion is the prevailing LULC change in the PRD. Impact of LULC change on regional climate was simulated by using a mesoscale climate model. Two different land cover datasets circa 1990 and 2000 were input to the model to investigate the impact of urbanization on regional weather and climate condition in summer 2005. The simulation results show that rapid urban expansion can substantially alter regional climate conditions in the PRD region including monthly mean temperature, precipitation, moisture, and surface heat fluxes.     

Plutonium concentration and 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratio in liver of squid collected in the coastal sea areas of Japan

Plutonium isotopes, 239Pu and 240Pu, were measured in liver samples from Surume squid using a sector-field high resolution ICP-MS after radiochemical purification. Surume squid samples were obtained from nine landing ports in Japanese inshore during fishery season from September to December 2002. Concentrations of 239Pu and 240Pu ranged from 1.5 to 28 mBq kg(-1) and 1.1 to 24 mBq kg(-1), respectively. Plutonium (239,240Pu) concentrations in liver were several thousand times higher than levels found in seawater. The concentration factor (CF) compared to seawater for 239,240Pu and 13 other elements ranged from 10(0) to 10(7). The CF values for 239,240Pu, V and Th were 10(2)-10(4). Pu had an intermediate CF between conservative and scavenged elements. 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratios in the squid liver ranged from 0.177 to 0.237 which were slightly higher than 0.178+/-0.014 for global fallout. The variations of 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratios in ocean currents with different source functions are important for interpreting high 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratios in Surume squid liver. It seems likely that Pu with high 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratio is continuously transported through the solubilization and seawater transport from the North Equatorial Current to Kuroshio and its branch, Tsushima Current. By assuming that Pu found in Surume squid liver is a mixture of global fallout Pu (0.178) and close-in fallout Pu with high 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratio (0.30-0.36) around Bikini Atoll, Pu contribution from Bikini close-in fallout Pu accounts for close to 35% of the whole plutonium in Surume squid liver. These results highlight that Surume squid is a useful organism for evaluating environmental Pu levels of larger sea area and facilitate the development of models to understand oceanic transport of close-in fallout Pu from Bikini Atoll.     

Erratum to: Quantification of land use/land cover changes in Pearl River Delta and its impact on regional climate in summer using numerical modeling

Regional Environmental Change -     

Impacts of climate and land use change on hydrodynamics and sediment transport regime of the Ganga River Basin

Regional Environmental Change - The Amazon rainforest covers roughly 40% of Colombia’s territory and has important global ecological functions. For more than 50 years, an internal war in the...     

Land use/cover dynamics and its impact on the rural livelihood of potter communities

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This study was undertaken to examine impacts of land use/cover dynamics on the rural livelihood of potter communities in Domba Watershed, Southwestern...     

Palm use and social values in rural communities on the coastal plains of Veracruz, Mexico

Palms are a resource of great importance in the tropics and are found in a variety of ecosystems, including the wetlands of the tropical coastal plains. In order to recover wetland ecosystems, we studied the traditional uses of wetland palms, by conducting interviews in the communities of four municipalities on the Gulf of Mexico coast. We found that people use five species of palm: Cocos nucifera, Sabal mexicana, Attalea liebmannii, Roystonea dunlapiana and Acrocomia aculeata. Main uses for the five species were for food and construction materials. Although palms are still used, traditional knowledge is declining in the younger generations, likely as a result of various social, cultural and economic factors. It is important to recover and promote the traditional use and value of palm trees, especially for the native species, because of both the economic benefits and the environmental services they provide. More participatory work with the inhabitants is needed to initiate palm breeding programs to assist in the recovery of wetland ecosystems.     

Seasonal variation of Ra/Ra ratio in seaweed: implications for water circulation patterns in coastal areas of the Noto Peninsula, Japan

To examine water circulation patterns of coastal water, 72 seaweed (Sargasso) samples and 27 coastal water samples were collected from coastal areas of the Noto Peninsula, Japan, during the period from December 1998 to June 2002. The (228)Ra and (226)Ra activities of those samples were measured by low-background gamma-ray spectrometry. There was a wide range of activities of (228)Ra (0.5-2Bq/kg-fresh) and (226)Ra (0.5-1.2Bq/kg-fresh) in the Sargasso samples. The (228)Ra/(226)Ra activity ratio of Sargasso samples exhibited seasonal variation with minimum values in June ((228)Ra/(226)Ra= approximately 1) and maximum values in December (1.5-2.5), which was mainly governed by changes in (228)Ra activity. It is also notable that the seasonal variation of the (228)Ra/(226)Ra ratio of Sargasso is in approximate agreement with that of the ambient coastal water. Sargasso samples appear to have retained the (228)Ra/(226)Ra ratio of the ambient coastal waters, and the temporal variations in that ratio provide insight into seasonal changes in water circulation in the Noto Peninsula coastal area.     

Using multitemporal Landsat TM imagery to establish land use pressure induced trends in forest and woodland cover in sections of the Soutpansberg Mountains of Venda region, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Globally, tropical forests are being perturbed by human activity. Tropical vegetation constitutes some of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks against the build up of greenhouse gases. In this paper, a local-scale case study utilising remote sensing methodology in estimating forest loss is presented, for a section of tropical South Africa’s Soutpansberg Mountains where land use pressure threatens some of the last remaining indigenous forests. Landsat TM images from October 1990, August 2000 and September 2006 were used, together with municipality level demographic data. Hybrid image classification techniques distinguished forest cover on the images, which were classified into vegetation density categories. About 20% of forest and woodland cover was lost in the 16-year analysis period, mainly due to pine and eucalyptus plantation and residential housing expansions. The local-scale key drivers behind the deforestation are examined.     

Potential for the desalination of a brackish groundwater aquifer under a background of rising sea level via salt intrusion prevention river gates in the coastal area of the Red River Delta,Vietnam

Additional freshwater sources are required in many parts of the world, including the coastal areas of the Red River Delta (RRD), where the groundwater (GW) is generally brackish. Determining a feasible method for desalinating brackish aquifers would help provide additional freshwater sources. However, substantial desalination of brackish aquifers cannot be achieved under the natural conditions of GW flow and precipitation recharge. Although rainfall recharge to the shallow Holocene aquifer has occurred for hundreds of years, the aquifer still remains brackish since the natural hydraulic conditions do not allow a complete mixing between the fresh recharged water and aquifer salinized water or the discharging of the aquifer salinized water. The planned salt intrusion prevention gates in the Red River, Tra Ly River and Hoa River in the RRD coastal area, combined with increased GW abstraction and associated aquifer recharge with fresh river water, could result in the gradual desalination of the shallow Holocene aquifer. These effects would help improve the area’s resilience to freshwater shortages and sea level rises and would allow for the creation of a long-term sustainable water resource development plan to manage the salinization of water resources caused by sea level rises. Finite element (FE) modeling of GW flow, solute transport via GW flow and dynamic programming (DP) have been used to study the potential desalination of brackish aquifers, the magnitude of GW abstraction quantities and the spatial and temporal aspects of desalination. FE modeling of GW flow coupled with DP was utilized to identify the magnitude of sustainable abstraction quantities and the GW flow field, which is required in salt transport models. Multiple sizes of elements and time steps were used to adapt to the unsteady state of GW flow and hydraulic head variables between the elements in the FE meshes in order to ensure reasonable accuracy of numerical modeling. The GW flow and salt transport modeling and DP allowed determining quasi-steady-state GW abstraction rates and aquifer salinity levels for conditions that did and did not include the shallow Holocene unconfined aquifer recharge from rainfall. The aquifer modeled domain which is supposed to serve the pumping well field is 1.5 km². The results showed that the Holocene aquifer may provide a stable abstraction rate of 100 m³/day starting in the 6th year (for the worst-case scenario with zero aquifer recharge from rainfall) to 130 m³/day starting in the 3rd year (for the scenario with aquifer recharge equal to 3% of the rainfall levels). During the first years of GW abstraction, the desalination of the brackish upper Holocene aquifer will mainly occur in the area close to the river, and at the 18th year of abstraction, almost the entire area between the river and line of pumping wells would be desalinized. From the 10th year of abstraction, the abstracted water has a total dissolved solids content lower than 0.5 g/l for the worst-case scenario with zero aquifer recharge from rainfall and lower than 0.42 g/l for the scenario with aquifer recharge equal to 3% of the rainfall. The modeling results indicate the simulated process by which abstraction of groundwater adjacent to the Tra Ly River could desalinize the brackish aquifer via freshwater recharge from the river.     

POSEIDON/RODOS models for radiological assessment of marine environment after accidental releases: application to coastal areas of the Baltic, Black and North Seas

In the framework of the developments of the European system RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn support System) for emergency response to nuclear accident, the computer code POSEIDON, that was developed to assess the radiological consequences of radioactive releases into marine environment, was adapted to cope with emergency conditions, in situations of radioactive discharges into the oceans from direct deposition from the atmosphere, sunken ships and containers, from discharges of rivers and estuaries and from coastal run-off. Based on the box model developed within the 'Marina' project, POSEIDON can calculate the dose effects from radionuclide releases in the coastal waters of Europe integrated over long time periods. A dynamic food chain model was implemented to deal with the short-term dynamical uptake of radioactivity by specific marine plants and organisms. POSEIDON has been installed on a UNIX platform to be fully compatible with RODOS input/output databases and on a Windows platform with an interface based on web technology. The 3D hydrodynamic model THREETOX is a part of the POSEIDON/RODOS system. It has been applied to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the North Sea. to derive the parameters for a flexible system of well-defined model compartments to be adapted to emergency conditions. The activity concentrations in water and in the marine food web were calculated by means of POSEIDON for radioactive fallout resulting from bomb testing, from the Chernobyl accident, and from routine discharges from nuclear facilities. POSEIDON's model results were compared with measurement data, and with calculation results from THREETOX. The model results agreed with the measurement data sufficiently.     

Seasonal variation of 228Ra/226Ra ratio in seaweed: implications for water circulation patterns in coastal areas of the Noto Peninsula, Japan

To examine water circulation patterns of coastal water, 72 seaweed (Sargasso) samples and 27 coastal water samples were collected from coastal areas of the Noto Peninsula, Japan, during the period from December 1998 to June 2002. The (228)Ra and (226)Ra activities of those samples were measured by low-background gamma-ray spectrometry. There was a wide range of activities of (228)Ra (0.5-2Bq/kg-fresh) and (226)Ra (0.5-1.2Bq/kg-fresh) in the Sargasso samples. The (228)Ra/(226)Ra activity ratio of Sargasso samples exhibited seasonal variation with minimum values in June ((228)Ra/(226)Ra= approximately 1) and maximum values in December (1.5-2.5), which was mainly governed by changes in (228)Ra activity. It is also notable that the seasonal variation of the (228)Ra/(226)Ra ratio of Sargasso is in approximate agreement with that of the ambient coastal water. Sargasso samples appear to have retained the (228)Ra/(226)Ra ratio of the ambient coastal waters, and the temporal variations in that ratio provide insight into seasonal changes in water circulation in the Noto Peninsula coastal area.