“后补贴”时代地方政府新能源汽车补贴策略研究

新能源汽车补贴是政府为了发展新能源汽车产业所采取的一项激励政策。现有文献虽在微观层面上研究了政府补贴对新能源汽车推广的影响,但多将补贴政策限定为固定额度的政府补贴,未考虑中国特殊的两级政府补贴政策尤其是地方政府补贴对新能源汽车推广的影响,且在补贴政策的设计上未与新能源汽车的实际推广目标相结合。基于"后补贴"时代的地方政府既要实现新能源汽车推广目标又要保证补贴政策合理退坡的双重现实要求。本文依据当前中央政府为新能源汽车提供固定补贴,地方政府提供配套比例补贴以及制定价格补贴比例上限的现实情形,综合考虑新能源汽车成本、充电桩建设情况、消费者初始效用、中央政府补贴等因素对地方新能源汽车推广的影响,构建了地方政府为实现既定新能源汽车推广目标的最优补贴策略模型。研究表明:(1)对于不同效用水平的消费者,地方政府价格补贴比例上限和配套比例补贴对新能源汽车零售价格所起的作用不同;(2)地方政府补贴政策只有在小于或等于其最优配套比例或价格补贴比例上限时才会对新能源汽车推广产生正向影响。最后,还结合北京新能源汽车推广的实际情况进行了数值模拟,给出了在不同新能源汽车成本、充电桩建设情况、消费者初始效用下北京市政府为实现新能源汽车推广目标的最优补贴策略。数值模拟结果表明,当前北京新能源汽车存在地方配套比例过高、价格补贴比例上限过高等问题。在后补贴时代,北京市政府可依据新能源汽车成本下降、充电设施逐步完善、消费者初始效用提升等因素变化,对补贴进行适当退坡。数值模拟表明,所构造的最优补贴策略模型对后补贴时代地方政府新能源汽车补贴政策的制定具有较高的参考价值。     

The relation between the estimated dietary intake of PCDD/Fs and levels in blood in a Flemish population (50-65 years)

Dioxin-like activity was measured in the serum of 1425 Flemish men and women via the CALUX assay. The adults, aged between 50 and 65 years, participated in a large biomonitoring program, executed by the Flemish Center of Expertise for Environment and Health between 2002 and 2006. Within the context of this biomonitoring program also dietary intake of dioxin-like contaminants was assessed through a food frequency questionnaire. The relation between the estimated dietary intake and the dioxin-like activity in serum was evaluated using multivariate analyses: a logistic model was performed on the total population, while a linear regression analysis was done on the subsample with quantifiable dioxin activity levels in serum. Region, gender, age, BMI, smoking status, as well as dietary habits were entered in the model, with dioxin level as an outcome estimate. Both the logistic and linear model confirmed the contribution of dietary intake to the dioxin activity measured in serum. Also BMI and region were found to be associated with dioxin activity levels.     

农户认知、外部环境与绿色农业生产意愿——基于湖北省632个农户调研数据

以湖北省632个农户调研数据为实证,在考虑绿色农业生产外部环境的情况下,结合农户对绿色农业生产的认知和农户特征因素,利用logistic回归探析农户绿色农业生产意愿的影响因素。结果表明:（1）农业收入占家庭总收入比重、绿色技术的经济效益和了解程度、农村环境污染现状、政府补贴都对农户绿色农业生产意愿具有正向影响;（2）农户年龄、绿色技术采用风险和政府管制则会减弱农户的绿色生产意愿。因此在推进农业生产绿色化转型的过程中,应加强职业农民培育和绿色农业生产技术的宣传培训,确保绿色技术的适用可靠性。同时政府应加强完善农业绿色生产制度,通过激励政策替代管制和惩罚机制,引导和规范农户绿色农业生产行为     

基于参与式社区评估法的泾河流域景观管理问题分析

参与式社区评估法既兼顾了景观管理中的地理变量,同时还将社会经济因素纳入了考虑范畴,是深入进行问题分析客观有效的方法之一。本文采用参与式社区评估法,运用问题矩阵和问题树分析,对泾河流域景观管理中存在的问题和利益相关者的认知进行了分析。研究发现,绝大多数利益相关者认为土壤侵蚀已成为第一严重的问题,其次是土地生产力低下、自然灾害、植被破坏等。尽管当地公众已经认识到了土壤侵蚀的严重危害,但在安排土地利用方式时,却很少考虑土壤侵蚀带来的危害,仍然从事着自给自足的粮食生产活动。     

农村食品安全消费态度、意愿与行为的差异研究

现阶段,我国食品安全状况不容乐观。通过梳理频繁发生的食品安全事件,可以发现食品安全问题的产生不仅仅是食品生产商、供应商或政府相关部门等方面的原因,食品消费者对于食品安全问题的产生和治理同样起到重要作用,其差异化的食品安全消费态度和行为也显著影响食品企业和政府部门的行为选择。现有研究大多针对消费者食品安全消费意愿和行为的影响因素及其相关方面进行分析,往往忽视了消费者食品安全消费态度、意愿和行为之间的客观差异现象。本文基于我国20个省份500个自然村实证调研数据,在引入空间地理分析概念的基础上,采用空间相关性检验的全局Moran’I指数分析农村食品安全消费、意愿和行为的大致集聚分布状况;再进一步利用局部Moran’I自相关指数分析判断相关具体集聚区域;最后通过消费态度、意愿、行为集聚区域的不一致性验证区域农村食品安全消费态度与行为差异的现实存在,对我国农村居民食品安全消费态度、意愿和行为之间的具体差异状况以及影响因素进行研究。结果显示:1现阶段,我国农村居民普遍持有较高程度的食品安全消费态度;2食品安全消费态度与食品安全消费意愿、行为之间存在一定程度上的差异;3造成这种差异的主要影响因素包括:主观规范作用、感知行为控制影响、农村消费者固有消费习惯障碍、安全食品消费基础设施建设不完善、政府监管认证力度不足以及相关政策制度缺失等。最后,文章提出针对性对策建议,具体包括:加强安全食品报道和宣传;加大科技技术投入力度;健全农村食品安全流通市场体系;加强食品检验检测等。     

产业生态系统稳定性研究述评

产业生态系统（IES）作为可持续发展的重要实践工具，在国内外得到快速推进并取得显着成效。但由于IES独特的生态化产业链接属性和成长环境。造成大量不稳定问题逐步浮现并且已经成为影响产业生态系统取得成功的重要障碍。以Cape Chades、Kahundborg等生态工业园发展为案例。对出现稳定性问题的IES进行回顾。然后，通过生态系统的稳定性内涵的研究，探讨IES稳定性的相关概念。该文的主要研究成果集中在通过大量国内外文献研究所得到的17个IES稳定性的可能影响因素。通过对这些日素的研究，把它们划分为结构、技术、外部三个纬度，其中结构性影响因素包括：地理位置、成员距离、核心组员、生态产业链长度、行业多样性、相互依赖、系统关联度等7个；技术性影响因素包括：技术充足、技术革新、信息交换平台、技术机密壁垒等4个；外部性影响因素包括：政府支持、市场变动、新能源新材料、公众压力、法律制度、经济支持等6个。最后展望未来相关研究的发展趋势与可能的突破点。指出可以通过在国内开展大样本IES的统计调查。通过研究这些影响因素与稳定性之间的数量相关关系，确认其中正在突出影响我国当前产业生态系统稳定发展的因素。     

我国城市居民健康状况及影响因素研究

随着中国城市化、工业化快速推进,城市居民的健康日益受到环境、外部压力等因素的影响,加上生活方式和健康观念方面的原因,城市居民健康状况的改善缓慢.利用2006年中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)截面数据,描述了我国城市居民的健康及其分布状况,利用Ordered Probit模型分析了影响城市居民的健康状况的各类因素.结果发现:家庭状况、生活习惯、就医决策、医疗保险等因素均影响城市居民的健康水平;尤其是在收入、工作等经济因素之外,健康观念、就医决策和保险覆盖等社会和制度因素亦对城市居民个人健康产生影响.同时,通过逐步回归控制相关变量的方法,检验了Grossman模型的适用性,同时也检验了影响因素作用机制的稳定性.在总结研究结论与不足的基础上,提出了应从经济,社会和制度三个层面全面促进城市居民健康的综合改革框架.     

脆弱生态环境耦合下的贫困地区可持续发展研究

研究表明，中国贫困地区的分布与脆弱生态环境的分布存在一种地理空间意义上的耦合，这种耦合是一种非良性的耦合，存在着诸多问题并我着当地的社会经济发展，要改变这一现状，实现区域社会经济可持续发展，必须革新现有的贫困人口生存方式和社会经济发展模式，据此，本文提出了实现贫困地区社会经济可持续发展的战略措施应是依托现有的资源优势，推广生态农业技术，发展绿色食品和开展生态旅游。     

No evidence of selenosis from a selenium-rich diet in the Brazilian Amazon

Selenium (Se) is an essential element and a well-known anti-oxidant. In the Lower Tapajós River region of the Brazilian Amazon, biomarkers of Se range from normal to very high. The local traditional diet includes important Se sources such as Brazil nuts, chicken, game meat and certain fish species. Some studies have reported alterations in keratin structure, gastrointestinal problems and paresthesia in populations with high Se intake. The objective of the present study was to evaluate cutaneous and garlic odor of the breath signs and sentinel symptoms of Se toxicity (selenosis) in relation to Se status in communities along the Tapajós River.Participants (N = 448), aged 15–87 years, were recruited from 12 communities. Se concentrations were measured in blood (B-Se) and plasma (P-Se) by ICP-MS. A nurse performed an examination of the hair, nails, skin and breath for signs of Se toxicity. Interview-administered questionnaires were used to collect information on socio-demographics, medical history and possible symptoms of Se toxicity.In this population, the median levels of B-Se and P-Se were 228.4 μg/L (range 103.3–1500.2 μg/L) and 134.8 μg/L (range 53.6–913.2 μg/L) respectively. Although B-Se and P-Se surpassed concentrations considered toxic (B-Se: 1000 μg/L (U.S. EPA, 2002)), no dermal or breath signs or symptoms of Se toxicity were associated with the biomarkers of Se status.In the present study population, where Se intake is mostly from traditional diet, there is no evidence of selenosis. These findings support the need to re-assess Se toxicity considering factors such as the chemical form of Se exposure, route of exposure (inhaled versus ingested), co-exposures to toxic elements such as mercury. Considering the current food transition towards a western diet in the Amazon, further studies should address the possible association between high Se status and cardiometabolic health in this study population.     

Lisbon’s womb: an approach to the city metabolism in the turn to the twentieth century

The consumption and production of food products in the municipality of Lisbon in the 1890–1900 decade is assessed with the support of historical cartography and statistical resources. For the first time, food production in a municipality in the turn to the twentieth century is accounted and simultaneously subject of a visual analysis of the land used for agriculture and of the water infrastructures that supported such uses. Agriculture occupied at least 40 % of the territory of the city, while the built environment occupied no more than 16 % of the territory. However, local production of food was far from supplying most of the citizens’ needs, and substantial food imports were needed. In this context, the municipality behaved like a heterotrophic system, highly dependent on the external supply of resources. Moreover, comparing to other European cities at the time Lisbon was facing in the end of the nineteenth century a late and slow transition from an agrarian social metabolism to an industrial one, suggesting that Lisbon was still relatively high-solar-powered as compared to other European cities at the time that were already highly fossil-fuel-powered.     

Correlates of women’s environmental behaviors: a study in Pawe Woreda,Northwest Ethiopia

Available cross-country, macro-level evidence regarding gender differences in environmental behaviors shows women are more environmentally concerned and responsive than men. However, while such macro-level evidence helps understand patterns of women’s environmental behaviors at a much broader level, it does not allow deeper insights into particular patterns at a single location or in much smaller areas. Tailor-made interventions needed to address livelihood and environmental strategies of poor rural women become meaningful if studies aim at revealing context specific, local variations in women’s environmental behaviors. In this context, there is only little research for Ethiopia regarding what influences women’s response to environmental problems. The objective of this research was to describe women’s response to environmental problems in Pawe Woreda and examine the demographic, socioeconomic, and institutional correlates of this response, with particular emphasis to forest resources. Data were primarily obtained from a sample of 363 households in a multi-stage sample survey and were analyzed mainly using a multivariate logistic regression model. We found that all except one of the demographic and socioeconomic variables included in the model were found to be statistically significant correlates of woman’s environmental response, but the institutional variable was not significantly associated with a woman’s environmental response. However, the qualitative result for additional institutional issues revealed the importance of land tenure. Many of the results are in line with the existing literature.     

补贴期后农户退耕还林的态度研究——以重庆万州为例

如何在项目结束停止补贴后长期巩固退耕还林成果,是政府和全社会共同关注的焦点。基于重庆万州退耕农户的微观调查数据,采用Ordered probit方法首次就补贴期后的农户退耕还林态度进行实证分析。数据显示,有相当大一部分农户在补贴结束不会再继续为退耕还林做出努力,项目的可持续性令人担忧;对补贴期后农户退耕还林态度的影响因素分析发现,男性、文化程度较高、非党员和非农就业的户主在补贴期后保持退耕还林的积极性较低;劳动力较多、年人均收入较低、退耕面积较大和还生态林的农户保持退耕还林的积极性较低。结论建议在现有的直接经济补偿结束后,尽快建立与生态服务提供紧密相连的生态补偿机制,并通过多种非货币性补偿方式保障退耕农户的利益。最后根据研究结果给出了巩固退耕还林成果的相关措施     

Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity in Brazilian Hot Spots

Hot spots in Brazil include a variety of ecosystems, such as mangroves, forests, and the Brazilian savannah, locally called cerrado. Some of the rural populations in these hot spots are the caiçaras in SE Atlantic Forest coast, and the caboclos in the Amazon. In this study, we are concerned especially with the knowledge of caiçaras and caboclos, associated with practices that might have implications for management. Data were gathered through interviews with adults at the various communities studied, and through systematic observations, including samples of fishing trips and the mapping of fishing spots used in the Atlantic Forest coast. The use of resources from the surrounding vegetation includes collection of plants, cultivated fruit gardens, the swidden system, and a careful and managed extraction of fibres. Among animal resources, food taboos seem to be useful practices that might contribute to the maintenance of local natural resources. Potential management practices should be locally developed, such as the informal division of fishing spots in Atlantic Forest sites, and the maintenance of the diversity of cassava varieties in both the Atlantic Forest and Amazonian areas.     

Impacts of future land use/land cover on wildfire occurrence in the Madrid region (Spain)

This paper assesses the relative importance of socioeconomic factors linked to fire occurrence through the simulation of future land use/land cover (LULC) change scenarios in the Madrid region (Spain). This region is a clear example of the socioeconomic changes that have been occurring over recent decades in the European Mediterranean as well as their impact on LULC and fire occurrence. Using the LULC changes observed between 1990 and 2006 as a reference, future scenarios were run up to 2025 with the conversion of land use and its effects model. Simultaneously, the relationship between LULC arrangement (interfaces) and historical fire occurrence was calculated using logistic regression analysis and used to quantify changes in future fire occurrence due to projected changes in LULC interfaces. The results revealed that it is possible to explain the probability of fire occurrence using only variables obtained from LULC maps, although the explanatory power of the model is low. In this context, border areas between some LULC types are of particular interest (i.e., urban/forest, grassland/forest and agricultural/forest interfaces). Results indicated that expected LULC changes in Euro-Mediterranean regions, particularly given the foreseeable increase in the wildland–urban interface, will substantially increase fire occurrence (up to 155 %). This underlines the importance of future LULC scenarios when planning fire prevention measures.     

工业用地出让、引资质量底线竞争与环境污染——基于252个地级市面板数据的经验分析

在工业化进程中,中国地方政府利用其掌控的土地资源进行大规模的招商引资活动,其中工业用地出让成为其招商引资的法宝。为了在激烈的竞争中获得某些优势,它们有时甚至不惜降低引资质量底线,从而引来一些高污染、高能耗的工业企业,并带来日益严重的环境污染问题。论文利用工业用地协议出让把工业用地出让、引资质量底线竞争与环境污染三者联系起来,并运用2004—2013年全国252个地级市的土地出让数据、经济数据、环境数据来分析工业用地出让对中国经济和环境的影响。通过协议出让面积对固定资产投资、工业总产值、GDP和地方财政收入进行回归来分析采用协议出让方式引入投资项目的质量;通过协议出让面积对工业二氧化硫和工业废水排放量进行回归来分析协议出让方式对当地环境污染的影响。实证结果表明,当期及前期的工业用地协议出让面积与固定资产投资、工业总产值、GDP、地方财政收入、税收等均呈负相关关系,与当地污染物的排放量呈正相关关系。换言之,地方政府若试图用协议出让方式增加工业用地出让面积来促进地方经济增长,将得不偿失,在短期内虽然对地方经济有一定的促进作用,但在长期内会对地方经济和环境造成危害。为了实现经济和生态环境的可持续发展,应完善地方政府的考核方式,调整以GDP为主的政绩考核机制,综合当地环境状况和除经济增长外的其他社会性服务指标作为考核指标;中央政府应该加强对地方政府的监管,严格规范工业用地出让,优化土地资源配置,提升引资质量;地方政府应加强对当地企业的监管,并严格执行环保标准。     

有机肥和化肥配施技术农户采纳意愿影响因素分析——基于苏、浙、皖三省农户调查

为了研究农户采纳有机肥和化肥配施技术意愿的主要影响因素,以风险规避理论为基础,通过建立二元Logistic回归模型,对苏浙皖3省596个农户样本的调研数据进行了分析。研究结果表明:户主年龄和是否有过特殊经历、农业从业人员占比、农户对过量施肥和有机肥的认知、政府是否对农业施肥技术进行过宣传对农户采纳有机肥和化肥配施技术的意愿具有显著影响。据此,提出了提高农户采纳有机肥和化肥配施技术意愿的政策建议:首先,政府应加大对有机肥和化肥配施技术的宣传和推广力度;其次,政府应协助相关组织解决有机肥当前面临的突出问题;最后,政府应完善相关政策的扶持力度。     

Factors influencing the performance of faecal sludge management services: case study in Thailand municipalities

In most low- and middle-income countries, the service coverage of faecal sludge management is very limited resulting in uncontrolled disposal that directly impacts to water resources and public health. Similar to other countries, Thailand is facing faecal sludge management problems which lead to serious challenge to its local government authorities who are responsible for services provision. Local factors may strongly affect faecal sludge management services. Because of this problem, the management measures should be formulated in responding to significant factors affecting the performance of FSM services. This study aimed to evaluate existing faecal sludge management services in Thailand, their strengths, and weaknesses, and identify the significant factors influencing the performance of services. Based on data collected from 160 municipalities in Thailand, factors influencing the faecal sludge management services were identified using multiple regression analysis. The indicators involving operational efficiency, service performance, and treatment feasibility were used for the assessment of faecal sludge management performance. Significant factors encompassing technical, financial, social, and institutional aspects were identified based on each indicator. The findings identified the significant factors and proposed effective measures for improving faecal sludge management services such as providing technical assistance, implementing awareness programmes for private operators and households, and subsidizing investment and operation costs of faecal sludge management facilities.     

农户生态耕种采纳意愿及其异质性分析——基于TPB框架的实证研究

生态耕种对改善农业生态环境、提升耕地保护成效和保障农作物质量安全起着重要作用。基于江西省11市47县（区）1 488份农户微观调查数据,在计划行为理论指导下,运用Logistic回归模型对农户生态耕种采纳意愿的影响因素开展实证研究。研究结果表明：（1）有89.85%的样本农户表示愿意采纳生态耕种,并对生态耕种的收益预期和推广预期维持在较高水平;（2）行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制对农户生态耕种采纳意愿有着显著的影响,其中,生态耕种推广预期、生产交流、邻里效应、政策补贴和技术培训变量是影响农户采纳意愿的关键因素;（3）不同限定条件下,农户生态耕种采纳意愿影响因素具有差异性,其中收益预期、信息传播力度和技术培训对低推广预期农户生态耕种采纳意愿影响更强;风险预期越低,对缺乏交流农户的采纳意愿影响更大;邻里效应小的农户主要受信息传播力度和技术培训的影响;需要政策补贴的农户,生产交流越频繁,邻里效应越强,其采纳愿望更强烈;参加了培训的农户,影响其采纳意愿的因素主要有收益预期与信息传播力度。政府应在加强生态耕种宣传与推广、搭建农户生产交流平台、完善生态耕种补贴与激励政策等方面制定针对性的措施。     

地方政府生态环境治理注意力研究——基于30个省市政府工作报告(2006—2015)文本分析

注意力代表着政府决策者对特定事务的关注,注意力的变化是政府决策选择变化的直接原因。环境治理注意力是环境治理进入议程设置,进而出台政策、实施治理的前提。政府工作报告是政府进行资源配置与精力投入的指挥棒,也是"政府将重视什么、哪些领域得到更多投入资源"的通知书和承诺书,它是政府注意力分配或者变化的重要载体。本文收集了30个省市地方政府自2006年到2015年共300份工作报告,通过文本分析方法,试图发现地方政府生态环境治理注意力的变化规律。分析结果呈现:1从时间轴上看,地方政府对于生态环境的注意力强度逐渐增加;2从地域轴上看,东、中、西部政府生态环境注意力差距并不明显,相比而言,中部处于一个稍低的位次;3从生态环境的范畴看,具体领域得到进一步扩展,中央与地方对环境具体事务保持了较高的一致性,注意力的变化与决策环境和中央宏观政策有重要相关关系。尽管在某些时间点,某些地域存在离散点,但总体而言,在中央政府强调经济发展需要与当地环境资源承载能力相协调的大背景下,地方政府将注意力大幅转向民生事务和生态环境。鉴于地方领导人任期以及注意力本身的"易变性",要保持地方政府环境治理注意力的强度和持续性,1增加制度供给,使环境治理成为法治常项;2将环境治理在公共事务治理的排序中前置,将环境治理放在突出位置;3提升环境事件的信息强度,向地方政府传导积极的环境治理压力。