Self-organized criticality of air pollution

In this work, we investigate the frequency-size distribution of three pollution indexes (PM₁₀, NO₂ and SO₂) in Shanghai. They are well approximated by power-law distributions, which suggest that air pollution might be a manifestation of self-organized criticality. We introduce a new numerical sandpile model with decay coefficient to reveal inherent dynamic mechanism of air pollution. Only changing the number value of decay coefficient of pollutants, this model gives a good simulation of three pollutants' statistical characteristic. This work shows that it is the self-organized criticality of the air pollutants that results in the temporal variation of air pollutant indexes and the minor air pollution sources can trigger the occurrence of large pollutant events by SOC behavior.     

The air pollution episode of January 1985 as revealed by background data measured in Hungary

The air pollution level in January 1985 is discussed on the basis of the concentrations of NO₂ and SO₂ measured at three regional background stations in Hungary. For one background air pollution station some aerosol components (SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺) are also included in the study. The data obtained are compared to average values for January. This comparison makes a severe country-wide pollution episode evident. The fossil fuel consumption and emission data as well as the meteorological parameters observed in this month are analyzed and backward trajectories are calculated to gain some information on the causes of this unusual situation.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality.The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO₂ concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30–60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM_2.5 can also decline by 3–15 μg m^?3 (4–25%) due to the lower SO₂ and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO_x emissions, NO_x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30–60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2–14 μg m^?3 (3–12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O₃) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O₃ concentrations in the summer reduced by 8–30 ppb.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background,emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006–2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO₂) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO₂ in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011–2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO₂ and NO_x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO₂ control scenario, and the 2010 NO_x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.     

Neural network modelling and prediction of hourly NOx and NO2 concentrations in urban air in London

Multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks were trained to model hourly NO_x and NO₂ pollutant concentrations in Central London from basic hourly meteorological data. Results have shown that the models perform well when compared to previous attempts to model the same pollutants using regression based models. This work also illustrates that MLP neural networks are capable of resolving complex patterns of source emissions without any explicit external guidance.     

Measurement of black carbon aerosols near two Chinese megacities and the implications for improving emission inventories

Knowledge of the distribution and sources of black carbon (BC) is essential to understanding its impact on radiative forcing and the establishment of a control strategy. In this study, we analyze atmospheric BC and its relationships with fine particles (PM_2.5) and trace gases (CO, NO_y and SO₂) measured in the summer of 2005 in two areas frequently influenced by plumes from Beijing and Shanghai, the two largest cities in China. The results revealed different BC source characteristics for the two megacities. The average concentration of BC was 2.37 (±1.79) and 5.47 (±4.00) μg m^?3, accounting for 3.1% and 7.8% of the PM_2.5 mass, in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. The good correlation between BC, CO and NO_y (R² = 0.54–0.77) and the poor correlation between BC and SO₂ suggest that diesel vehicles and marine vessels are the dominant sources of BC in the two urban areas during summer. The BC/CO mass ratio in the air mass from Shanghai was found to be much higher than that in the air mass from Beijing (0.0101 versus 0.0037 ΔgBC/ΔgCO), which is attributable to a larger contribution from diesel burning (diesel-powered vehicles and marine vessels) in Shanghai. Based on the measured ratios of BC/CO and annual emissions of CO, we estimate that the annual emissions of BC in Beijing and Shanghai are 9.51 Gg and 18.72 Gg, respectively. The improved emission rates of BC will help reduce the uncertainty in the assessment of the impact of megacities on regional climate.     

Major air pollutants in Bursa,Turkey: their levels,temporal changes,interactions, and sources

Bursa is one of the largest cities of Turkey and it hosts 17 organized industrial zones. Parallel to the increase in population, rapidly growing energy consumption, and increased numbers of transport vehicles have impacts on the air quality of the city. In this study, regularly calibrated automatic samplers were employed to get the levels of air pollution in Bursa. The concentrations of CH₄ and N-CH₄ as well as the major air pollutants including PM₁₀, PM_2.5, NO, NO₂, NO_x, SO₂, CO, and O₃, were determined for 2016 and 2017 calendar years. Their levels were 1641.62?±?718.25, 33.11?±?5.45, 42.10?±?10.09, 26.41?±?9.01, 19.47?±?16.51, 46.73?±?16.56, 66.23?±?32.265, 7.60?±?3.43, 659.397?±?192.73, and 51.92?±?25.63 µg/m³ for 2016, respectively. Except for O₃, seasonal concentrations were higher in winter and autumn for both years. O₃, CO, and SO₂ had never exceeded the limit values specified in the regulations yet PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂ had violated the limits in some days. The ratios of CO/NO_x, SO₂/NO_x, and PM_2.5/PM₁₀ were examined to characterize the emission sources. Generally, domestic and industrial emissions were dominated in the fall and winter seasons, yet traffic emissions were effective in spring and summer seasons. As a result of the correlation process between O_x and NO_x, it was concluded that the most important source of O_x concentrations in winter was NO_x and O₃ was in summer.     

Short-term effects of air pollution on daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in western China

Controlling the confounding factors on cardiovascular diseases, such as long-time trend, calendar effect, and meteorological factors, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to investigate the short-term effects of air pollutants (PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂) on daily cardiovascular admissions from March 1st to May 31st during 2007 to 2011 in Lanzhou, a heavily polluted city in western China. The influences of air pollutants were examined with different lag structures, and the potential effect modification by dust storm in spring was also investigated. Significant associations were found between air pollutants and hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases both on dust event days and non-dust event days in spring. Air pollutants had lag effects on different age and gender groups. Relative risks (RRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with a 10 μg/m³ increase were 1.14 (1.04~1.26) on lag1 for PM₁₀, 1.31 (1.21~1.51) on lag01 for SO₂, and 1.96 (1.49~2.57) on lag02 for NO₂ on dust days. Stronger effects of air pollutants were observed for females and the elderly (≥60 years). Our analysis concluded that the effects of air pollutants on cardiovascular admissions on dust days were significantly stronger than non-dust days. The current study strengthens the evidence of effects of air pollution on health and dust-exacerbated cardiovascular admissions in Lanzhou.     

A comparison of operational Lagrangian particle and adaptive puff models for plume dispersion forecasting

Transport and dispersion of pollutants in the lower atmosphere are predicted by using both a Lagrangian particle model (LPM) and an adaptive puff model (APM2) coupled to the same mesoscale meteorological prediction model PMETEO. LPM and APM2 apply the same numerical solutions for plume rise; but, for advection and plume growth, LPM uses a stochastic surrogate to the pollutant conservation equation, and APM2 applies interpolated winds and standard deviations from the meteorological model, using a step-wise Gaussian approach. The results of both models in forecasting the SO₂ ground level concentration (glc) around the 1400 MWe coal-fired As Pontes Power Plant are compared under unstable conditions. In addition, meteorological and SO₂ glc numerical results are compared to field measurements provided by 17 fully automated SO₂ glc remote stations, nine meteorological towers and one Remtech PA-3 SODAR, from a meteorological and air quality monitoring network located 30 km around the power plant.     

Contribution of transboundary air pollution to ionic concentrations in fog in the Kinki Region of Japan

To estimate the contribution of transboundary transported air pollutants from other Asian countries to Japan in ionic concentrations in fog water in March 2005, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was utilized with meteorological fields produced by the 5th generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). For meteorological predictions, the model well reproduced the surface meteorological variables, particularly temperature and humidity, and generally captured fog occurrence. For chemical predictions, most of the model-predicted monthly mean concentrations were approximately within a factor of 2 of the observations, indicating that the model well simulated the long-range atmospheric transport from the Asian Continent to Japan. For SO₄^2?, NO₃^? and NH₄⁺, the contribution rates of the transboundary air pollution in the Kinki Region of Japan ranged from 69 to 82% for aerosols, from 47 to 87% for ionic concentrations in rain, and from 55 to 79% for ionic concentrations in fog. The study found that the transboundary air pollution also affected ionic concentrations in fog as well as aerosol concentrations and ionic concentrations in rain.     

Analysis of air quality in Dire Dawa,Ethiopia

Ambient air quality was monitored and analyzed to develop air quality index and its implications for livability and climate change in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. Using survey research design, 16 georeferenced locations, representing different land uses, were randomly selected and assessed for sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO),volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and meteorological parameters (temperature and relative humidity). The study found mean concentrations across all land uses for SO₂ of 0.37 ± 0.08 ppm, NO₂ of 0.13 ± 0.17 ppm, CO₂ of 465.65 ± 28.63 ppm, CO of 3.35 ± 2.04 ppm, and VOCs of 1850.67 ± 402 ppm. An air quality index indicated that ambient air quality for SO₂ was very poor, NO₂ ranged from moderate to very poor, whereas CO rating was moderate. Significant positive correlations existed between temperature and NO₂, CO₂, and CO and between humidity and VOCs. Significant relationships were also recorded between CO₂ and NO₂ and between CO and CO₂. Poor urban planning, inadequate pollution control measure, and weak capacity to monitor air quality have implications for energy usage, air quality, and local meteorological parameters, with subsequent feedback into global climate change. Implementation of programs to monitor and control emissions in order to reduce air pollution will provide health, economic, and environmental benefits to the city.

Implications: The need to develop and implement emission control programs to reduce air pollution in Dire Dawa City is urgent. This will provide enormous economic, health, and environmental benefits. It is expected that economic effects of air quality improvement will offset the expenditures for pollution control. Also, strategies that focus on air quality and climate change present a unique opportunity to engage different stakeholders in providing inclusive and sustainable development agenda for Dire Dawa.     

A general method for evaluating the effects of air pollutants on lung cancer prevalence

ABSTRACT

It is widely accepted that some air pollutants are related to lung cancer prevalence. An effective method is proposed to quantitatively evaluate the effects of air pollutants and the interactions between them. The method consisted of three parts: data decomposition, comparable data generation and relationship inference. Firstly, very limited monitoring data published by Geographic Information System were applied to calculate the inhalable air pollution of relatively massive patient samples. Then the investigated area was partitioned into a number of districts, and the comparable data containing air pollutant concentrations and lung cancer prevalence in all districts were generated. Finally, the relationships between pollutants and lung cancer prevalence were concluded by an information fusion tool: Choquet integral. As an example, the proposed method was applied in the investigation of air pollution in Tianjin, China. Overall, SO₂, O₃ and PM_2.5 were the top three factors for lung cancer. And there was obvious positive interaction between O₃ and PM_2.5 and negative interaction among SO₂, O₃ and PM₁₀. The effect of SO₂ on men was larger than on women. O₃ and SO₂ were the most important factors for the adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, respectively. The effect of SO₂ or NO₂ on squamous cell carcinoma is obviously larger than that on adenocarcinoma, while the effect of O₃ or PM_2.5 on adenocarcinoma is obviously larger than that on squamous cell carcinoma. The results provide important suggestions for management of pollutants and improvement of environmental quality. The proposed method without any parameter is general and easily realized, and it sets the foundation for further researches in other cities/countries.

Implications: For total lung cancer prevalence, male and female lung cancer prevalence, and adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma prevalence, the proposed method not only quantify the effect of single pollutant (SO₂, NO₂, CO, O₃, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀) but also reveals the correlations between different pollutants such as positive interaction or negative interaction. The proposed method without any geographic predictor and parameter is much easier to realize, and it sets the foundation for further research in other cities/countries. The study results provide important suggestions for the targeted management of different pollutants and the improvement of human lung health.     

Forecasting Air Pollution Potential: A Synoptic Climatological Approach

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development and application of an air pollution potential (APP) forecast model based on a synoptic climatological approach in a heavily industrialized area in Durban, South Africa. The aim of the forecasting procedure, based on a system of orange, red, and all-clear alerts, was to give industry advance warning of periods of poor atmospheric dispersion so that it could take action to reduce emissions. The key meteorological parameter in accurately identifying the commencement of an APP episode was found to be negative surface pressure tendency. Wind direction was the most useful parameter in estimating the end point of an APP episode. The model was very successful in identifying periods of elevated SO₂, but there is a need for further refinement in forecasting the end point of an episode.     

Simulation of Sulfate and Nitrate Chemistry in Power Plant Plumes

ABSTRACT

The rate of formation of secondary particulate matter (PM) in power plant plumes varies as the plume material mixes with the background air. Consequently, the rate of oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) to sulfate and nitric acid, respectively, can be very different in plumes and in the background air (i.e., air outside the plume). In addition, the formation of sulfate and nitric acid in a power plant plume is a strong function of the chemical composition of the background air and the prevailing meteorological conditions.

We describe the use of a reactive plume model, the Reactive and Optics Model of Emissions, to simulate sulfate and nitrate formation in a power plant plume for a variety of background conditions. We show that SO₂ and NO₂ oxidation rates are maximum in the background air for volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited airsheds but are maximum at some downwind distance in the plume when the background air is nitrogen oxide (NO_x)-limited. Our analysis also shows that it is essential to obtain measurements of background concentrations of ozone, aldehydes, peroxyacetyl nitrate, and other VOCs to properly describe plume chemistry.     

Air pollution and hospital visits for acute upper and lower respiratory infections among children in Ningbo,China: A time-series analysis

Acute upper and lower respiratory infections are main causes of mortality and morbidity in children. Air pollution has been recognized as an important contributor to development and exacerbation of respiratory infections. However, few studies are available in China. In this study, we investigated the short-term effect of air pollution on hospital visits for acute upper and lower respiratory infections among children under 15 years in Ningbo, China. Poisson generalized models were used to estimate the associations between air pollution and hospital visits for acute upper and lower respiratory infections adjusted for temporal, seasonal, and meteorological effects. We found that four pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, and SO₂) were significantly associated with hospital visits for acute upper and lower respiratory infections. The effect estimates for acute upper respiratory infections tended to be higher (PM_2.5 ER = 3.46, 95% CI 2.18, 4.76; PM₁₀ ER = 2.81, 95% CI 1.93, 3.69; NO₂ ER = 11.27, 95% CI 8.70, 13.89; SO₂ ER = 15.17, 95% CI 11.29, 19.19). Significant associations for gaseous pollutants (NO₂ and SO₂) were observed after adjustment for particular matter. Stronger associations were observed among older children and in the cold period. Our study suggested that short-term exposure to outdoor air pollution was associated with hospital visits for acute upper and lower respiratory infections in Ningbo.     

Effect of the Fine Fraction of Particulate Matter versus the Coarse Mass and Other Pollutants on Daily Mortality in Santiago,Chile

ABSTRACT

Daily counts of non-accidental deaths in Santiago, Chile, from 1988 to 1996 were regressed on six air pollutants— fine particles (PM_2.5), coarse particles (PM_10–2.5), CO, SO₂, NO₂, and O₃. Controlling for seasonal and meteorological conditions was done using three different models— a generalized linear model, a generalized additive model, and a generalized additive model on previously filtered data. Single- and two-pollutant models were tested for lags of 1-5 days and the average of the previous 2-5 days.

The increase in mortality associated with the mean levels of air pollution varied from 4 to 11%, depending on the pollutants and the way season of the year was considered. The results were not sensitive to the modeling approaches, but different effects for warmer and colder months were found. Fine particles were more important than coarse particles in the whole year and in winter, but not in summer. NO₂ and CO were also significantly associated with daily mortality, as was O₃ in the warmer months. No consistent effect was observed for SO₂. Given particle composition in Santiago, these results suggest that combustion-generated pollutants, especially from motor vehicles, may be associated with increased mortality. Temperature was closely associated with mortality. High temperatures led to deaths on the same day, while low temperatures lead to deaths from 1 to 4 days later.     

Retrospective assessment of air quality management practices in Taiwan

In 1995, Taiwan's Environmental Protection Administration (EPA/TW) instituted a policy of levying emission taxes on polluters in order to combat the rampant national issue of pollution. Since that time, pollution control strategies, tightening exhaust emission standards for industry, improvements in fuel quality, and new stricter vehicle emission standards, etc., have been implemented. This study evaluates the effectiveness of these measures and examines the improvement of Taiwan's air quality. In this paper, we conduct a detailed analysis of change in the concentrations of pollutants (SO₂, NO_x and particulate matter [PM]) between two three-year periods (from 1996 to1998 and from 2000 to 2002). The pollution levels were generally lower in the latter period. Concentrations at 14 EPA/TW stations in central Taiwan were simulated and source apportionment analyses in three of Central Taiwan's largest cities were conducted using a trajectory transfer-coefficient air quality model. Correlation coefficients (r) between simulations and observations for the monthly means of the concentrations of SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ during the study periods at the 14 stations are 0.56, 0.63, 0.70 and 0.31, respectively. The sulfur control policy greatly reduced SO₂ concentration island-wide, a stringent emission standard put into place for gasoline vehicles reduced NO_x concentration along highways, and an emissions tax placed on construction sites, as well as a regular program for road-dust sweeping, reduced primary particulate matter. Among all of the pollution abatement policies implemented, the most effective method for reducing PM_2.5 concentrations in the three largest cities involved the reduction of fine ammonium sulfate aerosols from point sources (56–63% of net PM_2.5 reduction). The next largest reduction was attributed to a diminishment in primary PM_2.5 emanating from point sources (27–56% of net PM_2.5 reduction). Secondary particulate matter, especially sulfate, was reduced from distances up to 150 km leeward of major pollution point sources such as Taichung Power Plant.     

Modeling the long-term frequency distribution of regional ozone concentrations

Efficient methods are developed for modeling emissions – air quality relationships that govern ozone and NO₂ concentrations over very long periods of time. A baseline model evaluation study is conducted to assess the accuracy and speed with which the relationship between pollutant emissions and the frequency distribution of O₃ concentrations throughout the year can be computed along with annual average NO₂ values using a deterministic photochemical airshed model driven by automated objective analysis of measured meteorological parameters. Methods developed are illustrated by application to the air quality situation that exists in Southern California. Model performance statistics for O₃ are similar to the results obtained in previous short-term episodic model evaluation studies that were based on hand-crafted meteorological inputs that are supplemented by expensive field measurement campaigns. Model predictions at one of the highest NO₂ concentration sites in the US indicate that measured violation of the US annual average NO₂ air quality standard at that site occurs because other species such as HNO₃ and PAN are measured as if they were NO₂ by the chemiluminescent NO_x monitors in current use.     

An assessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites

Possible effects of climate change on air quality are studied for two urban sites in the UK, London and Glasgow. Hourly meteorological data were obtained from climate simulations for two periods representing the current climate and a plausible late 21st century climate. Of the meteorological quantities relevant to air quality, significant changes were found in temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, solar radiation, surface sensible heat flux and precipitation. Using these data, dispersion estimates were made for a variety of single sources and some significant changes in environmental impact were found in the future climate. In addition, estimates for future background concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ upwind of London and Glasgow were made using the meteorological data in a statistical model. These showed falls in NO_x and increases in ozone for London, while a fall in NO₂ was the largest percentage change for Glasgow. Other changes were small. With these background estimates, annual-average concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ were estimated within the two urban areas. For London, results averaged over a number of sites showed a fall in NO_x and a rise in ozone, but only small changes in NO₂ and PM₁₀. For Glasgow, the changes in all four chemical species were small. Large-scale background ozone values from a global chemical transport model are also presented. These show a decrease in background ozone due to climate change. To assess the net impact of both large scale and local processes will require models which treat all relevant scales.     

Assessment of contribution of SO2 and NO2 from different sources in Jamshedpur region, India

Contribution of pollution from different types of sources in Jamshedpur, the steel city of India, has been estimated in winter 1993 using two approaches in order to delineate and prioritize air quality management strategies for the development of region in an environmental friendly manner. The first approach mainly aims at preparation of a comprehensive emission inventory and estimation of spatial distribution of pollution loads in terms of SO₂ and NO₂ from different types of industrial, domestic and vehicular sources in the region. The results indicate that industrial sources account for 77% and 68% of the total emissions of SO₂ and NO₂, respectively, in the region, whereas vehicular emissions contributed to about 28% of the total NO₂ emissions. In the second approach, contribution of these sources to ambient air quality levels to which the people are exposed to, was assessed through air pollution dispersion modelling. Ambient concentration levels of SO₂ and NO₂ have been predicted in winter season using the ISCST3 model. The analysis indicates that emissions from industrial sources are responsible for more than 50% of the total SO₂ and NO₂ concentration levels. Vehicular activities contributed to about 40% of NO₂ pollution and domestic fuel combustion contributed to about 38% of SO₂ pollution. Predicted 24-h concentrations were compared with measured concentrations at 11 ambient air monitoring stations and good agreement was noted between the two values. In-depth zone-wise analysis of the above indicates that for effective air quality management, industrial source emissions should be given highest priority, followed by vehicular and domestic sources in Jamshedpur region.