Modeling the impacts of the Finnish Climate Strategy on air pollution

This paper presents an example of how air pollution models can be used together with energy system models to study the impacts of climate change mitigation strategies on air pollution. As many mitigation measures of greenhouse gases (GHGs) affect the use of fossil fuels in energy production, they can have important side-effects on other air pollution problems. This paper studies on a national scale the impacts of the planned GHG reduction measures on multiple air pollution problems in Finland, concentrating on acidification of forest soils and lakes, tropospheric ozone levels harmful to humans and vegetation and on emissions of fine particles. The air pollutant emission scenarios with the alternative energy choices are calculated for about 200 large point sources, assuming the present emission limit legislation. Disperse emissions are treated at municipality level. The analysis extends to the year 2020. The implementation of the Kyoto protocol in Finland would induce notable reductions of multiple air pollutant emissions and related environmental impacts. A 6–11% reduction in ecosystems threatened by acidification in Southern and Central Finland would be achieved with the Finnish Climate Strategy alone. Substantial improvement in ozone levels would be reached in all scenarios compared to the current situation. The measures of the Climate Strategy could reduce the harmful ozone levels by a further 3%. The measures of the Climate Strategy would not significantly affect the primary particulate emissions in the future because the emissions from large power plants are already effectively controlled. Contrary to the fuel choices of the large units, expanded use of small-scale wood combustion can result in considerable increases of both fine particulate and VOC emissions.     

Developments in greenhouse gas emissions and net energy use in Danish agriculture - how to achieve substantial CO(2) reductions?

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are a significant contributor to total Danish emissions. Consequently, much effort is currently given to the exploration of potential strategies to reduce agricultural emissions. This paper presents results from a study estimating agricultural GHG emissions in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (including carbon sources and sinks, and the impact of energy consumption/bioenergy production) from Danish agriculture in the years 1990–2010. An analysis of possible measures to reduce the GHG emissions indicated that a 50–70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable, including mitigation measures in relation to the handling of manure and fertilisers, optimization of animal feeding, cropping practices, and land use changes with more organic farming, afforestation and energy crops. In addition, the bioenergy production may be increased significantly without reducing the food production, whereby Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance.     

Preliminary investigation of greenhouse gas emissions from the environmental sector in Taiwan

The United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change (UNFCCC) asks their Parties to submit a National Inventory Report (NIR) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on an annual basis. However, when many countries are quickly growing their economy, resulting in substantial GHG emissions, their inventory reporting systems either have not been established or been able to be linked to planning of mitigation measures at national administration levels. The present research was aimed to quantify the GHG emissions from an environmental sector in Taiwan and also to establish a linkage between the developed inventories and development of mitigation plans. The "environmental sector" consists of public service under jurisdiction of the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration: landfilling, composting, waste transportation, wastewater treatment, night soil treatment, and solid waste incineration. The preliminary results were compared with that of the United States, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and Korea, considering the gaps in the scopes of the sectors. The GHG emissions from the Taiwanese environmental sector were mostly estimated by following the default methodology in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guideline, except that of night soil treatment and waste transportation that were modified or newly developed. The GHG emissions from the environmental sectors in 2004 were 10,225 kilotons of CO2 equivalent (kt CO2 Eq.). Landfilling (48.86%), solid waste incineration (27%), and wastewater treatment (21.5%) were the major contributors. Methane was the most significant GHG (70.6%), followed by carbon dioxide (27.8%) and nitrous oxide (1.6%). In summary, the GHG emissions estimated for the environmental sector in Taiwan provided reasonable preliminary results that were consistent and comparable with the existing authorized data. On the basis of the inventory results and the comparisons with the other countries, recommendations of mitigation plans were made, including wastewater and solid waste recycling, methane recovery for energy, and waste reduction/sorting.     

发达国家温室气体减排现状及对我国的启示

气候变化是当前全世界关注的焦点问题,大气中温室气体浓度的不断升高与人类活动存在密切的联系.温室气体的历史排放主要是由发达国家产生的,发达国家对气候变化负有主要的责任.目前发达国家温室气体减排履约的整体情况不容乐观,主要发达国家的排放量呈上升趋势,但一些发达国家的减排经验还是值得借鉴的.本文在总结发达国家温室气体减排政策和措施的基础上,结合我国实际情况,提出了我国温室气体减排的可能对策.     

Global climate change: The quantifiable sustainability challenge

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and U.S. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues.

Implications:?This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.     

Estimating and comparing greenhouse gas emissions with their uncertainties using different methods: A case study for an energy supply utility

Energy supply utilities release significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. It is essential to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties, for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be calculated by an activity-based method (i.e., fuel consumption) and continuous emission measurement (CEM). In this study, GHG emissions such as CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O are estimated for a heat generation utility, which uses bituminous coal as fuel, by applying both the activity-based method and CEM. CO₂ emissions by the activity-based method are 12–19% less than that by the CEM, while N₂O and CH₄ emissions by the activity-based method are two orders of magnitude and 60% less than those by the CEM, respectively. Comparing GHG emissions (as CO₂ equivalent) from both methods, total GHG emissions by the activity-based methods are 12–27% lower than that by the CEM, as CO₂ and N₂O emissions are lower than those by the CEM. Results from uncertainty estimation show that uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the activity-based methods range from 3.4% to about 20%, from 67% to 900%, and from about 70% to about 200% for CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄, respectively, while uncertainties in the GHG emissions by the CEM range from 4% to 4.5%. For the activity-based methods, an uncertainty in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default net calorific value (NCV) is the major uncertainty contributor to CO₂ emissions, while an uncertainty in the IPCC default emission factor is the major uncertainty contributor to CH₄ and N₂O emissions. For the CEM, an uncertainty in volumetric flow measurement, especially for the distribution of the volumetric flow rate in a stack, is the major uncertainty contributor to all GHG emissions, while uncertainties in concentration measurements contribute a little to uncertainties in the GHG emissions.

Implications:Energy supply utilities contribute a significant portion of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is important to accurately estimate GHG emissions with their uncertainties for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change. GHG emissions can be estimated by an activity-based method and by continuous emission measurement (CEM), yet little study has been done to calculate GHG emissions with uncertainty analysis. This study estimates GHG emissions and their uncertainties, and also identifies major uncertainty contributors for each method.     

Counterurbanization: A neglected pathway of forest transition

Human settlement into rural areas (counterurbanization) is generating new patterns of reforestation, with distinctive features compared to the previously considered pathways of forest transition through “economic development” and “forest scarcity”. Here, we discuss the specific features of this neglected pathway of forest recovery and describe the process with the support of study cases around the world. This pathway includes specific motivations (e.g., natural amenities, outdoor recreation), particular socio-economic processes, conflicts between newcomers and locals, and specific ecological outcomes (e.g., a larger proportion of non-native species in the new forests). Although this pathway locally affects small areas, as a widespread and expanding process around the world, counterurbanization could have a growing global effect, with the potential to modify biodiversity, ecosystem services, and cultural values. These novel characteristics should be further explored to better understand the patterns and processes of forest transitions in a context of a globally connected world.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01632-9.     

Siberian environmental change: Synthesis of recent studies and opportunities for networking

A recent multidisciplinary compilation of studies on changes in the Siberian environment details how climate is changing faster than most places on Earth with exceptional warming in the north and increased aridity in the south. Impacts of these changes are rapid permafrost thaw and melt of glaciers, increased flooding, extreme weather events leading to sudden changes in biodiversity, increased forest fires, more insect pest outbreaks, and increased emissions of CO₂ and methane. These trends interact with sociological changes leading to land-use change, globalisation of diets, impaired health of Arctic Peoples, and challenges for transport. Local mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to be limited by a range of public perceptions of climate change that vary according to personal background. However, Siberia has the possibility through land surface feedbacks to amplify or suppress climate change impacts at potentially global levels. Based on the diverse studies presented in this Ambio Special Issue, we suggest ways forward for more sustainable environmental research and management.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01626-7.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector in Argentina in business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios

The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios—business as usual (BAU), and mitigation—and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater.

Implications: The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of methane emissions on the key categories of waste emission sources and to comparing results with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines.     

The forest environmental frontier in Russia: Between sustainable forest management discourses and ‘wood mining’ practice

With 20% of the world’s forests, Russia has global potential in bioeconomy development, biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. However, unsustainable forest management based on ‘wood mining’ reduces this potential. Based on document analysis, participant observations and interviews, this article shows how non-state actors—environmental NGOs and forest companies—address forest resource depletion and primary forest loss in Russia. We analyse two key interrelated forest discourses driven by non-state actors in Russia: (1) intensive forest management in secondary forests as a pathway towards sustained yield and primary forest conservation; (2) intact forest landscapes as a priority in primary forest conservation. We illustrate how these discourses have been integrated into policy debates, institutions and practices and discuss their relation to relevant global discourses. The article concludes that despite successful cases in conserving intact forest landscapes, there is still a frontier between sustainable forest management discourses and forestry practice in Russia.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01643-6.     

The policy consequences of defining rewilding

More than 30 years after it was first proposed as a biodiversity conservation strategy, rewilding remains a controversial concept. There is currently little agreement about what the goals of rewilding are, and how these are best achieved, limiting the utility of rewilding in mainstream conservation. Achieving consensus about rewilding requires agreeing about what “wild” means, but many different definitions exist, reflecting the diversity of values in conservation. There are three key debates that must be addressed to find a consensual definition of “wild”: (1) to which extent can people and “wild” nature co-exist?; (2) how much space does “wild” nature need? and (3) what kinds of “wild” nature do we value? Depending on the kinds of “wild” nature rewilding aims to create, rewilding policy will be faced with managing different opportunities and risks for biodiversity and people.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01560-8.     

Environmental and public health co-benefits of consumer switches to immunity-supporting food

During COVID-19, there has been a surge in public interest for information on immunity-boosting foods. There is little scientific support for immunity-supporting properties of specific foods, but strong evidence for food choice impacts on other health outcomes (e.g. risk of non-communicable disease) and environmental sustainability. Here, we relate online recommendations for “immunity-boosting” foods across five continents to their environmental and human health impacts. More frequently recommended food items and groups are plant based and have lower land use and greenhouse gas emission impacts plus more positive health outcomes (reducing relative risks of mortality or chronic diet-related diseases) per serving of food. We identify trade-offs between environmental outcomes of increasing consumption of recommended food items, with aquatic environment impacts increasing with food recommendation frequency. People’s reliance on the Internet for health information creates an opportunity to consolidate behaviour change towards consuming foods with multiple co-benefits. Our study identifies win–win options for nudging online information-seeking behaviour towards more sustainable choices for terrestrial biodiversity conservation and human health.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01693-w.     

Climate change,risk perception,and protection motivation among high-altitude residents of the Mt. Everest region in Nepal

Mountain ecosystems are considered vulnerable to early impacts of climate change. Whether and how local residents of these areas perceive these changes, however, remain under-studied questions. By conducting a household survey in the Khumbu region of Nepal, this study assessed local residents’ experience-based perception of changes in climate trends and patterns, perceived risk, and attitudes towards climate issues. Multivariate cluster analysis based on residents’ climate change beliefs revealed three segments: “Cautious,” “Disengaged,” and “Alarmed.” A comparison of these segments along key psychosocial constructs of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) revealed significant inter-segment differences in residents’ perception of severity, vulnerability, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and response cost associated with engaging in mitigating behavior. Results shed light on how residents of high elevation areas that are considered to be exposed to early impacts of climate change perceive the risk and intend to respond. These findings could also assist stakeholders working in other similar mountain ecosystems in understanding vulnerability and in working towards climate readiness.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01369-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Note on In-Traffic Measurement of Airborne Tire-Wear Participate Debris

Measuring greenhouse gas (GHG) source emissions provides data for validation of GHG inventories, which provide the foundation for climate change mitigation. Two Toyota RAV4 electric vehicles were outfitted with high-precision instrumentation to determine spatial and temporal resolution of GHGs (e.g., nitrous oxide, methane [CH₄], and carbon dioxide [CO₂]), and other gaseous species and particulate metrics found near emission sources. Mobile measurement platform (MMP) analytical performance was determined over relevant measurement time scales. Pollutant residence times through the sampling configuration were measured, ranging from 3 to 11 sec, enabling proper time alignment for spatial measurement of each respective analyte. Linear response range for GHG analytes was assessed across expected mixing ratio ranges, showing minimal regression and standard error differences between 5, 10, 30, and 60 sec sampling intervals and negligible differences between the two MMPs. GHG instrument drift shows deviation of less than 0.8% over a 24-hr measurement period. These MMPs were utilized in tracer-dilution experiments at a California landfill and natural gas compressor station (NGCS) to quantify CH₄ emissions. Replicate landfill measurements during October 2009 yielded annual CH₄ emissions estimates of 0.10 ± 0.01, 0.11 ± 0.01, and 0.12 ± 0.02 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (MTCO₂E). These values compare favorably to California GHG Emissions Inventory figures for 2007, 2008, and 2009 of 0.123, 0.125, and 0.126 MTCO₂E/yr, respectively, for this facility. Measurements to quantify NGCS boosting facility-wide emissions, during June 2010 yielded an equivalent of 5400 ± 100 TCO₂E/yr under steady-state operation. However, measurements during condensate transfer without operational vapor recovery yield an instantaneous emission rate of 2–4 times greater, but was estimated to only add 12 TCO₂E/yr overall. This work displays the utility for mobile GHG measurements to validate existing measurement and modeling approaches, so emission inventory values can be confirmed and associated uncertainties reduced.

Implications:?Measuring greenhouse gas (GHG) source emissions provides data and validation for GHG inventories, the foundation for climate change mitigation. Mobile measurement platforms with robust analytical instrumentation completed tracer-dilution experiments in California at a landfill and natural gas compressor station (NGCS) to quantify CH₄ emissions. Data collected for landfill CH₄ agree with the current California emissions inventory, while NGCS data show the possible variability from this type of facility. This work displays the utility of mobile GHG measurements to validate existing measurement and modeling approaches, such that emission inventory values can be confirmed, associated uncertainties reduced, and mitigation efforts quantified.     

Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm Region

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social–ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social–ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.

     

Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O. It can also be a sink for CO(2) through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH(4) consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N(2)O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH(4) and N(2)O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint.     

Nature and COVID-19: The pandemic,the environment,and the way ahead

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought profound social, political, economic, and environmental challenges to the world. The virus may have emerged from wildlife reservoirs linked to environmental disruption, was transmitted to humans via the wildlife trade, and its spread was facilitated by economic globalization. The pandemic arrived at a time when wildfires, high temperatures, floods, and storms amplified human suffering. These challenges call for a powerful response to COVID-19 that addresses social and economic development, climate change, and biodiversity together, offering an opportunity to bring transformational change to the structure and functioning of the global economy. This biodefense can include a “One Health” approach in all relevant sectors; a greener approach to agriculture that minimizes greenhouse gas emissions and leads to healthier diets; sustainable forms of energy; more effective international environmental agreements; post-COVID development that is equitable and sustainable; and nature-compatible international trade. Restoring and enhancing protected areas as part of devoting 50% of the planet’s land to environmentally sound management that conserves biodiversity would also support adaptation to climate change and limit human contact with zoonotic pathogens. The essential links between human health and well-being, biodiversity, and climate change could inspire a new generation of innovators to provide green solutions to enable humans to live in a healthy balance with nature leading to a long-term resilient future.     

Quantifying trade-offs between ecological gains,economic costs,and landowners’ preferences in boreal mire protection

Private land often encompasses biodiversity features of high conservation value, but its protection is not straightforward. Commonly, landowners’ perspectives are rightfully allowed to influence conservation actions. This unlikely comes without consequences on biodiversity or other aspects such as economic considerations, but these consequences are rarely quantitatively considered in decision-making. In the context of boreal mire protection in Finland, we report how acknowledging landowners’ resistance to protection changes the combination of mires selected to conservation compared to ignoring landowners’ opinions. Using spatial prioritization, we quantify trade-offs arising between the amount of landowners’ resistance, protected biodiversity, and financial costs in different conservation scenarios. Results show that the trade-offs cannot be fully avoided. Nevertheless, we show that the systematic examination of the trade-offs opens up options to alleviate them. This can promote the evaluation of different conservation policy outcomes, enabling better-informed conservation decisions and more effective and socially sustainable allocation of conservation resources.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01530-0.     

The forest frontier in the Global South: Climate change policies and the promise of development and equity

Halting forest loss and achieving sustainable development in an equitable manner require state, non-state actors, and entire societies in the Global North and South to tackle deeply established patterns of inequality and power relations embedded in forest frontiers. Forest and climate governance in the Global South can provide an avenue for the transformational change needed—yet, does it? We analyse the politics and power in four cases of mitigation, adaptation, and development arenas. We use a political economy lens to explore the transformations taking place when climate policy meets specific forest frontiers in the Global South, where international, national and local institutions, interests, ideas, and information are at play. We argue that lasting and equitable outcomes will require a strong discursive shift within dominant institutions and among policy actors to redress policies that place responsibilities and burdens on local people in the Global South, while benefits from deforestation and maladaptation are taken elsewhere. What is missing is a shared transformational objective and priority to keep forests standing among all those involved from afar in the major forest frontiers in the tropics.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01602-1.     

The role of green innovations,environmental policies and carbon taxes in achieving the sustainable development goals of carbon neutrality

The green innovations, environmental policies, and carbon taxes are the tools to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the mitigation process. This study is intended to examine the impact of innovation, carbon pricing (CTAX), environmental policies (EP), and energy consumption (ECON) on PM_2.5 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission for Central-Eastern European countries. The panel effect during 2000–2018 is tested using a dynamic panel data model while the Granger causality approach obtains country-related outcomes. The outcomes reveal that eco-friendly innovations have a more profound effect on carbon mitigation. Environmental policies reduce emissions by 2.7% in the short run and 17.4% in the long run. Similarly, CTAX mitigates GHG emissions by 8.6% in the short-run and PM2.5 by 0.9% and 5.7% in the short and long run. However, urbanization, energy consumption and trade openness are the leading polluters in the region. The main findings remain dominant in the country-specific results and find unidirectional and bidirectional causality evidence among variables. The research concludes that green innovations and strict environmental policy can lead towards achieving sustainable development goals using carbon taxes as a tool on the way.

Graphical abstract