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1.
ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent. 相似文献
2.
Sangjun Im Kevin M. Brannan Saied Mostaghimi 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(6):1465-1479
ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) was calibrated and used to assess the future effects of various land development scenarios on water quality in the Polecat Creek watershed in Caroline County, Virginia. Model parameters related to hydrology and water quality were calibrated and validated using observed stream flow and water quality data collected at the watershed outlet and the outlets of two sub water sheds. Using the county's Comprehensive Plan, land use scenarios were developed by taking into account the trends and spatial distributions of future development. The simulation results for the various land use scenarios indicate that runoff volume and peak rate increased as urban areas increased. Urbanization also increased sediment loads mainly due to increases in channel erosion. Constituent loads of total Kjeldal nitrogen, orthophosphorus, and total phosphorous for Polecat Creek watershed slightly decreased under future development scenarios. These reductions are due to increases in urban areas that typically contribute smaller quantities of nitrogen and phosphorous, as compared to agricultural areas. However, nitrate loads increased for the future land use scenarios, as compared to the existing land use. The increases in nitrate loads may result from increases in residential land and associated fertilizer use and concurrent decreases in forested land. The procedures used in this paper could assist local, state, and regional policy makers in developing land management strategies that minimize environmental impacts while allowing for future development. 相似文献
3.
John Doherty John M. Johnston 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(2):251-265
ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty. 相似文献
4.
Drew Ackerman Kenneth C. Schiff Stephen B. Weisberg 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2005,41(2):477-486
ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is a powerful time variable hydrologic model that has rarely been applied in arid environments. Here, the performance of HSPF in southern California was assessed, testing its ability to predict annual volume, daily average flow, and hourly flow. The model was parameterized with eight land use categories and physical watershed characteristics. It was calibrated using rainfall and measured flow over a five‐year period in a predominantly undeveloped watershed and it was validated using a subsequent 4‐year period. The process was repeated in a separate, predominantly urbanized watershed over the same time span. Annual volume predictions correlated well with measured flow in both the undeveloped and developed watersheds. Daily flow predictions correlated well with measured flow following rain events, but predictions were poor during extended dry weather periods in the developed watershed. This modeling difficulty during dry‐weather periods reflects the large influence of, and the poor accounting in the model for, artificially introduced water from human activities, such as landscape overwatering, that can be important sources of water in urbanized arid environments. Hourly flow predictions mistimed peak flows, reflecting spatial and temporal heterogeneity of rainfall within the watershed. Model correlation increased considerably when predictions were averaged over longer time periods, reaching an asymptote after an 11‐hour averaging window. 相似文献
5.
Kathryn Connors Sasowsky Thomas W. Gardner 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1991,27(1):7-18
ABSTRACT: A grid cell geographic information system (GIS) is used to parameterize SPUR, a quasi-physically based surface runoff model in which a watershed is configured as a set of stream segments and contributing areas. GIS analysis techniques produce various watershed configurations by progressive simplification of a stream network delineated from digital elevation models (DEM). We used three watershed configurations: ≥ 2nd, ≥ 4th, and ≥ 13th Shreve order networks, where the watershed contains 28, 15, and 1 channel segments with 66, 37, and 3 contributing areas, respectively. Watershed configuration controls simulated daily and monthly sums of runoff volumes. For the climatic and topographic setting in southeastern Arizona the ≥ 4th order configuration of the stream network and contributing areas produces results that are typically as good as the ≥ 2nd order network. However both are consistently better than the ≥ 13th order configuration. Due to the degree of parameterization in SPUR, model simulations cannot be significantly improved by increasing watershed configuration beyond the ≥ 4th order network. However, a range of Soil Conservation Service curve numbers derived from rainfall/runoff data can affect model simulations. Higher curve numbers yield better results for the ≥ 2nd order network while lower curve numbers yield better results for the ≥ 4th order network. 相似文献
6.
Ahmed Said Mark Ross Ken Trout Jing Zhang 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2007,43(2):546-556
Abstract: A nontraditional application of the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model to simulate freshwater discharge to upper Charlotte Harbor along Florida’s west coast was performed. This application was different from traditional HSPF applications in three ways. First, the domain of the model was defined based on the hydraulic characteristics of the landforms using small distributed parameter discretization. Second, broad wetland land forms, representing more than 20% of this area, were simulated as reaches with storage‐attenuation characteristics and not as pervious land segments (PERLNDs). Finally, the reach flow‐tables (F‐Tables) were configured in a unique way to be calibrated representing the uncertainty of the storage‐attenuation process. Characterizing wetlands as hydrography elements allows flow from the wetlands to be treated as a stage‐dependent flux. The study was conducted for the un‐gauged portion of the Peace and Myakka rivers in west‐central Florida. Due to low gradient tidal influences, a large portion of the basin is un‐gauged. The objective of this study was to simulate stream flow discharges and to estimate freshwater inflow from these un‐gauged areas to upper Charlotte Harbor. Two local gauging stations were located within the model domain and were used for calibration. Another gauge with a shorter period of record was used for verification. A set of global hydrologic parameters were selected and tested using the parameter optimization software (PEST) during the calibration. Model results were evaluated using PEST and well‐known statistical indices. The correlation coefficients were very high (0.899 and 0.825) for the two calibration stations. Further testing of this approach appears warranted for watersheds with significant wetlands coverage. 相似文献
7.
Ge Sun Hans Riekerk Nicholas B. Comerford 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1998,34(4):843-854
ABSTRACT: The great temporal and spatial variability of pine flat-woods hydrology suggests traditional short-term field methods may not be effective in evaluating the hydrologic effects of forest management. The FLATWOODS model was developed, calibrated and validated specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape. The model was applied to two typical flatwoods sites in north central Florida. Three harvesting treatments (Wetland Harvesting, Wetland + Upland Harvesting, and Control) under three typical climatic conditions (dry, wet, and normal precipitation years) were simulated to study the potential first-year effects of common forest harvesting activities on flatwoods. Long-term (15 years) simulation was conducted to evaluate the hydrologic impacts at different stages of stand rotation. This simulation study concludes that forest harvesting has substantial effects on hydrology during dry periods and clear cutting of both wetlands and uplands has greater influence on the water regimes than partial harvesting. Compared to hilly regions, forest harvesting in the Florida coastal plains has less impact on water yield. 相似文献
8.
Nathan Staley Tiffany Bright Rebecca W. Zeckoski Brian L. Benham Kevin M. Brannan 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(5):1153-1162
ABSTRACT: The Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) describes discharge from a stream reach based on function tables (FTABLES) that relate stream stage, surface area, volume, and discharge. For this study, five FTABLE scenarios were compared to assess their effect on daily discharge rates predicted using HSPF. Four “field‐based” FTABLE scenarios were developed using detailed cross section surveys collected at predefined intervals along 14 reaches in the study watershed. A fifth “digital‐based” scenario was developed using digital elevation models (DEMs) and Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) Regional Hydraulic Geometry Curves. The Smirnov k‐sample test was used to compare average daily discharge rates simulated with HSPF using the five FTABLE scenarios. No significant difference in simulated stream discharge was found (p = 0.99) between the five FTABLE scenarios. Additional examination of the four field‐based scenarios revealed that the number of cross sections per stream reach used to generate FTABLES had little effect on the resulting stage discharge relationship. These findings suggest that FTABLES generated using digital data are a viable option when simulating stream discharge with HSPF and that if field data are used to generate FTABLES, using fewer cross sections will not adversely affect simulated discharge predictions. 相似文献
9.
Colin W. Krause Brendan Lockard Tammy J. Newcomb David Kibler Vinod Lohani Donald J. Orth 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(6):1645-1658
ABSTRACT: Watershed and aquatic ecosystem management requires methods to predict and understand thermal impacts on stream habitat from urbanization. This study evaluates thermal effects of projected urbanization using a modeling framework and considers the biological implications to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) to assess changes in stream thermal habitat under altered stream‐ flow, shade, and channel width associated with low, medium, and high density urban developments in the Back Creek watershed (Roanoke County, Virginia). Flow alteration by the high density development scenario alone caused minimal heating of mean daily summer base flow (mean +0.1°C). However, when flow changes were modeled concurrently with reduced shade and increased channel width, mean daily temperature increased 1°C. Maximum daily temperatures exceeding the state standard (31°C) increased from 1.1 to 7.6 percent of the time using summer 2000 climatic conditions. Model results suggest that additional urban development will alter stream temperature, potentially limiting thermal habitat and shifting the fish community structure from intolerant to tolerant fish species in Back Creek. More research is needed on the sub‐lethal or chronic effects of increased stream temperature regimes on fish, particularly for those species already living in habitats near their upper limits. 相似文献
10.
Kenneth J. Tobin Marvin E. Bennett 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2017,53(3):593-604
Historically, many watershed studies have been based on using the streamflow flux, typically from a single gauge at the basin's outlet, to support calibration. In this setting, there is great potential for equifinality of parameters during the optimization process, especially for parameters that are not directly related to streamflow. Therefore, some of the optimal parameter values achieved during the autocalibration process may be physically unrealistic. In recent decades a vast array of data from land surface models and remote sensing platforms can help to constrain hydrologic fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET). While the spatial resolution of these ancillary datasets varies, the continuous spatial coverage of these gridded datasets provides flux measurements across the entire basin, in stark contrast to point‐based streamflow data. This study uses Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Model data to constrain Soil and Water Assessment Tool parameter values associated with ET to a more physically realistic range. The study area is the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed, in southern Oklahoma. Traditional objective metrics such as the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients record no performance improvement after application of this method. However, there is a dramatic increase in the number of days with receding flow where simulations match observed streamflow. 相似文献
11.
Modeling the relationship between land use and surface water quality 总被引:64,自引:0,他引:64
It is widely known that watershed hydrology is dependent on many factors, including land use, climate, and soil conditions. But the relative impacts of different types of land use on the surface water are yet to be ascertained and quantified. This research attempted to use a comprehensive approach to examine the hydrologic effects of land use at both a regional and a local scale. Statistical and spatial analyses were employed to examine the statistical and spatial relationships of land use and the flow and water quality in receiving waters on a regional scale in the State of Ohio. Besides, a widely accepted watershed-based water quality assessment tool, the Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS), was adopted to model the plausible effects of land use on water quality in a local watershed in the East Fork Little Miami River Basin. The results from the statistical analyses revealed that there was a significant relationship between land use and in-stream water quality, especially for nitrogen, phosphorus and Fecal coliform. The geographic information systems (GIS) spatial analyses identified the watersheds that have high levels of contaminants and percentages of agricultural and urban lands. Furthermore, the hydrologic and water quality modeling showed that agricultural and impervious urban lands produced a much higher level of nitrogen and phosphorus than other land surfaces. From this research, it seems that the approach adopted in this study is comprehensive, covering both the regional and local scales. It also reveals that BASINS is a very useful and reliable tool, capable of characterizing the flow and water quality conditions for the study area under different watershed scales. With little modification, these models should be able to adapt to other watersheds or to simulate other contaminants. They also can be used to study the plausible impacts of global environmental change. In addition, the information on the hydrologic effects of land use is very useful. It can provide guidelines not only for resource managers in restoring our aquatic ecosystems, but also for local planners in devising viable and ecologically-sound watershed development plans, as well as for policy makers in evaluating alternate land management decisions. 相似文献
12.
Christine L. Adamus Martinus J. Bergman 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1995,31(4):647-655
ABSTRACT: The St. Johns River Water Management District (SJR-WMD) is using a Geographic Information System (GIS) screening model to estimate annual nonpoint source pollution loads to surface waters and determine nonpoint source pollution problem areas within the SJRWMD. The model is a significant improvement over current practice because it is contained entirely within the district's GIS software, resulting in greater flexibility and efficiency, and useful visualization capabilities. Model inputs consist of five spatial data layers, runoff coefficients, mean runoff concentrations, and stormwater treatment efficiencies. The spatial data layers are: existing land use, future land use, soils, rainfall, and hydrologic boundaries. These data layers are processed using the analytical capabilities of a cell-based GIS. Model output consists of seven spatial data layers: runoff, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, lead, and zinc. Model output can be examined visually or summarized numerically by drainage basin. Results are reported for only one of the SJRWMD's ten major drainage basins, the lower St. Johns River basin. The model was created to serve a major planning effort at the SJRWMD; results are being actively used to address nonpoint source pollution problems. 相似文献
13.
Sanjiv Kumar Venkatesh Merwade 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(5):1179-1196
Abstract: Impact of watershed subdivision and soil data resolution on Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model calibration and parameter uncertainty is investigated by creating 24 different watershed model configurations for two study areas in northern Indiana. SWAT autocalibration tool is used to calibrate 14 parameters for simulating seven years of daily streamflow records. Calibrated parameter sets are found to be different for all 24 watershed configurations, however in terms of calibrated model output, their effect is minimal. In some cases, autocalibration is followed by manual calibration to correct for low flows, which were underestimated during autocalibration. In addition to normal validation using four years of streamflow data for each calibrated parameter set, cross‐validation (using a calibrated parameter set from one model configuration to validate observations using another configuration) is performed to investigate the effect of different model configurations on streamflow prediction. Results show that streamflow output during cross‐validation is not affected, thus highlighting the non‐unique nature of calibrated parameters in hydrologic modeling. Finally, parameter uncertainty is investigated by extracting good parameter sets during the autocalibration process. Parameter uncertainty analysis suggests that significant parameters show very narrow range of uncertainty across different watershed configurations compared with nonsignificant parameters. Results from recalibration of some configurations using only six significant parameters were comparable to that from calibration using 14 parameters, suggesting that including fewer significant parameters could reduce the uncertainty arising from model parameters, and also expedite the calibration process. 相似文献
14.
Frederick W. Bond Donald L. Chery Eugene S. Simpson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1979,15(6):1640-1652
ABSTRACT: Recent developments in the numerical solution of the governing partial differential equations for overland and channel flow should make possible physically based models which predict runoff from ungaged streams. However, these models, which represent the watershed by sets of intersecting planes, are complex and require much computer time. Parametric models exist that have the advantage of being relatively simple, and once calibrated are inexpensive to use and require limited data input. In this study, a procedure was developed for calibrating a parametric model against a physically based model, utilizing base areas of one acre and one square mile, with the expectation that base areas can be combined to model real watersheds. Simulation experiments with the physically based model showed that, for the one-acre base area, the dominant parameter (cell storage ratio, K) related to the slope and friction of the planes, whereas for one square-mile areas, the dominant parameters (K plus a lag factor, L) relate to channel properties. These parameters decreased exponentially as rainfall intensity increased. 相似文献
15.
Solange Filoso Joseph Vallino Charles Hopkinson Edward Rastetter Luc Claessens 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(5):1365-1384
ABSTRACT: Increased riverine nitrogen (N) fluxes have been strongly correlated with land use changes and are now one of the largest pollution problems in the coastal region of the United States. In the present study, the Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is used to simulate transport of N in the Ipswich River basin in Massachusetts and to evaluate the effect of future land use scenarios on the water quality of the river. Model results show that under a land use change scenario constructed with restrictions from environmental protection laws, where 44 percent of the forest in the basin was converted to urban land, stream nitrate concentrations increased by about 30 percent of the present values. When an extreme land use scenario was used, and 100 percent of the forest was converted to urban land, concentrations doubled in comparison to present values. Model simulations also showed that present stream nitrate concentrations might be four times greater than they were prior to urbanization. While pervious lands with high density residential land use generated runoff with the highest N concentrations in HSPF simulations, the results suggested that denitrification in the riparian zone and wetlands coupled with the hydrology of the basin are likely to control the magnitude of nitrate loads to the aquatic system. The simulation results showed that HSPF can predict the general patterns of inorganic N concentrations in the Ipswich River and tributaries. Nevertheless, HSPF has some difficulty simulating the extreme variability of the observed data throughout the main stem and tributaries, probably because of limitations in the representation of wetlands and riparian zones in the model, where N processes such as denitrification seem to play a major role in controlling the transport of N from the terrestrial system to the river reaches. 相似文献
16.
D. M. Hetrick C. C. Travis P. S. Shirley E. L. Etnier 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(5):803-810
ABSTRACT: Model predictions of the relatively simple soil compartment model SESOIL are compared with those of the more data-intensive terrestrial ecosystem hydrology model AGTEHM. Comparisons were performed using data from a deciduous forest stand watershed, a grassland watershed, and two agricultural field plots. Good agreement was obtained between model predictions for annual values of infiltration, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and groundwater runoff. SESOIL model predictions also compare well with empirical measurements at the forest stand and the grassland watersheds. 相似文献
17.
We connected a cellular, dynamic, spatial urban growth model and a semi-distributed continuous hydrology model to quantitatively predict streamflow in response to possible future urban growth at a basin scale. The main goal was to demonstrate the utility of the approach for informing public planning policy and investment choices. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was set up and calibrated for the Kishwaukee River basin in the Midwestern USA and was repeatedly run with various land use scenarios generated either by the urban growth model (LEAMluc) or hypothetically. The results indicate that (1) the land use scenarios generated by LEAMluc result in little changes in total runoff but some noticeable changes in surface flow; (2) the argument that low flows tend to decrease with more urbanized areas in a basin was confirmed in this study but the selection of indicators for low flows can result in misleading conclusions; (3) dynamic simulation modeling by connecting a distributed land use change model and a semi-distributed hydrological model can be a good decision support tool demanding reasonable amount of efforts and capable of long-term scenario-based assessments. 相似文献
18.
George Doubleday Antonia Sebastian Tatyana Luttenschlager Philip B. Bedient 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2013,49(6):1444-1455
Low Impact Development (LID) is alternative design approach to land development that conserves and utilizes natural resources to minimize the potential negative environmental impacts of development, such as flooding. The Woodlands near Houston, Texas is one of the premier master‐planned communities in the United States. Unlike in a typical urban development where riparian corridors are often replaced with concrete channels, pervious surfaces, vegetation, and natural drainage pathways were preserved as much as possible during development. In addition, a number of detention ponds were strategically located to manage runoff on site. This article uses a unique distributed hydrologic model, Vflo?, combined with historical (1974) and recent (2008 and 2009) rainfall events to evaluate the long‐term effectiveness of The Woodlands natural drainage design as a stormwater management technique. This study analyzed the influence of LID in The Woodlands by comparing the hydrologic response of the watershed under undeveloped, developed, and highly urbanized conditions. The results show that The Woodlands drainage design successfully reflects predeveloped hydrologic conditions and produces peak flows two to three times lower than highly urbanized development. Furthermore, results indicate that the LID practices employed in The Woodlands successfully attenuate the peak flow from a 100‐year design event, resulting in flows comparable to undeveloped hydrologic conditions. 相似文献
19.
Jaswinder Singh H. Vernon. Knapp J.G. Arnold Misganaw Demissie 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2005,41(2):343-360
ABSTRACT: The performance of two popular watershed scale simulation models — HSPF and SWAT — were evaluated for simulating the hydrology of the 5,568 km2 Iroquois River watershed in Illinois and Indiana. This large, tile drained agricultural watershed provides distinctly different conditions for model comparison in contrast to previous studies. Both models were calibrated for a nine‐year period (1987 through 1995) and verified using an independent 15‐year period (1972 through 1986) by comparing simulated and observed daily, monthly, and annual streamflow. The characteristics of simulated flows from both models are mostly similar to each other and to observed flows, particularly for the calibration results. SWAT predicts flows slightly better than HSPF for the verification period, with the primary advantage being better simulation of low flows. A noticeable difference in the models' hydrologic simulation relates to the estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET). Comparatively low PET values provided as input to HSPF from the BASINS 3.0 database may be a factor in HSPF's overestimation of low flows. Another factor affecting baseflow simulation is the presence of tile drains in the watershed. HSPF parameters can be adjusted to indirectly account for the faster subsurface flow associated with tile drains, but there is no specific tile drainage component in HSPF as there is in SWAT. Continued comparative studies such as this, under a variety of hydrologic conditions and watershed scales, provide needed guidance to potential users in model selection and application. 相似文献
20.
T J. Cline A. Molinas P. Y. Julien 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1989,25(3):641-652
ABSTRACT: A micro computer based Watershed Information System (W.LS.) is developed to assist in the preparation of input files for the hydrologic simulation model HEC-1. This system consists of three phases. Phase I utilizes the capabilities of AutoCAD version 9 and three programs, BASINS, PLANES, and CHANNELS, to extract, organize, and display watershed data. Phase II uses the program CN to calculate some HEC-1 parameter values. Phase II utilizes the program HECUPDATE to create HEC-1 input files. The system input includes topographic, soils, land use, watershed geometry data, and a skeletal HEC-1 input file. Output from the system includes a summary User Reference File, a Soils File, a Land Use File, a Watershed Geometry File, a Curve Number File, and a HEC-1 input file, which is ready to run. The W.I.S. has been applied to Macks Creek Watershed in southwest Idaho. 相似文献