Identifying Riparian Buffer Effects on Stream Nitrogen in Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds

Within the Southeastern (SE) Coastal Plain of the U.S., numerous freshwaters and estuaries experience eutrophication with significant nutrient contributions by agricultural non-point sources (NPS). Riparian buffers are often used to reduce agricultural NPS yet the effect of buffers in the watershed is difficult to quantify. Using corrected Akaike information criterion (AIC_c) and model averaging, we compared flow-path riparian buffer models with land use/land cover (LULC) models in 24 watersheds from the SE Coastal Plain to determine the ability of riparian buffers to reduce or mitigate stream total nitrogen concentrations (TNC). Additional models considered the relative importance of headwaters and artificial agricultural drainage in the Coastal Plain. A buffer model which included cropland and non-buffered cropland best explained stream TNC (R ² = 0.75) and was five times more likely to be the correct model than the LULC model. The model average predicted that current buffers removed 52 % of nitrogen from the edge-of-field and 45 % of potential nitrogen from the average SE Coastal Plain watershed. On average, 26 % of stream nitrogen leaked through buffered cropland. Our study suggests that stream TNC could potentially be reduced by 34 % if buffers were adequately restored on all cropland. Such estimates provide realistic expectations of nitrogen removal via buffers to watershed managers as they attempt to meet water quality goals. In addition, model comparisons of AIC_c values indicated that non-headwater buffers may contribute little to stream TNC. Model comparisons also indicated that artificial drainage should be considered when accessing buffers and stream nitrogen.     

Bankfull Regional Curves for the Alleghany Plateau/Valley and Ridge,Piedmont, and Coastal Plain Regions of Maryland

Regional curves are empirical relationships that can help identify the bankfull stage in ungaged watersheds and aid in designing the riffle dimension in stream restoration projects. Bankfull regional curves were developed from gage stations with drainage areas less than 102 mi² (264.2 km²) for the Alleghany Plateau/Valley and Ridge (AP/VR), Piedmont, and Coastal Plain regions of Maryland. The AP/VR regions were combined into one region for this project. These curves relate bankfull discharge, cross‐sectional area, width, and mean depth to drainage area within the same hydro‐physiographic region (region with similar rainfall/runoff relationship). The bankfull discharge curve for the Coastal Plain region was further subdivided into the Western Coastal Plain (WCP) and Eastern Coastal Plain (ECP) region due to differences in topography and runoff. Results show that the Maryland Piedmont yields the highest bankfull discharge rate per unit drainage area, followed by the AP/VR, WCP, and ECP. Likewise, the Coastal Plain and AP/VR streams have less bankfull cross‐sectional area per unit drainage area than the Piedmont. The average bankfull discharge return interval across the three hydro‐physiographic regions was 1.4 years. The Maryland regional curves were compared to other curves in the eastern United States. The average bankfull discharge return interval for the other studies ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years.     

NONPOINT SOURCE DISCHARGES OF NUTRIENTS FROM PIEDMONT WATERSHEDS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY1

ABSTRACT: We measured annual discharges of water, sediments, and nutrients from 10 watersheds with differing proportions of agricultural lands in the Piedmont physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Flow-weighted mean concentrations of total N, nitrate, and dissolved silicate in watershed discharges were correlated with the proportion of cropland in the watershed. In contrast, concentrations of P species did not correlate with cropland. Organic P and C correlated with the concentration of suspended particles, which differed among watersheds. Thus, the ratio of N:P:Si in discharges differed greatly among watersheds, potentially affecting N, P or Si limitation of phytoplankton growth in the receiving waters. Simple regression models of N discharge versus the percentage of cropland suggest that croplands discharge 29–42 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 and other lands discharge 1.2–5.8 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1. We estimated net anthropogenic input of N to croplands and other lands using county level data on agriculture and N deposition from the atmosphere. For most of the study watersheds, N discharge amounted to less than half of the net anthropogenic N.     

REGIONAL APPLICATION OF AN APPROXIMATE STREAMFLOW PARTITIONING METHOD1

ABSTRACT: The approximate streamflow partitioning method which uses daily rainfall and streamfiow data was applied in Coastal Plain, Coastal Flatwoods, and Southern Piedmont physiographic regions for estimation of the surface and subsurface flow components of total streainflow. Sizes of the watersheds ranged from 9.6 km² to 1,030 km. Although the streamflow partitioning method was developed and tested on the Coastal Plain physiographic region, results indicate that the procedure can be applied to other physiographic regions where available data are limited to daily values. The effect of channelization on the partitioned flow components in the Coastal Plain and Coastal Flatwoods physiographic areas was also examined. While channelization was found to decrease the storm-time base, it had no significant effect on the relative percentages of the partitioned flow components.     

NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN FOREST STREAMS OF THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Seventy to eighty percent of the water flowing in rivers in the United States originates as precipitation in forests. This project developed a synoptic picture of the patterns in water chemistry for over 300 streams in small, forested watersheds across the United States. Nitrate (NO₃^?) concentrations averaged 0.31 mg N/L, with some streams averaging ten times this level. Nitrate concentrations tended to be higher in the northeastern United States in watersheds dominated by hardwood forests (especially hardwoods other than oaks) and in recently harvested watersheds. Concentrations of dissolved organic N (mean 0.32 mg N/L) were similar to those of NO₃～, whereas ammonium (NH₄⁺) concentrations were much lower (mean 0.05 mg N/L). Nitrate dominated the N loads of streams draining hardwood forests, whereas dissolved organic N dominated the streams in coniferous forests. Concentrations of inorganic phosphate were typically much lower (mean 12 mg P/L) than dissolved organic phosphate (mean 84 mg P/L). The frequencies of chemical concentrations in streams in small, forested watersheds showed more streams with higher NO₃^? concentrations than the streams used in national monitoring programs of larger, mostly forested watersheds. At a local scale, no trend in nitrate concentration with stream order or basin size was consistent across studies.     

IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON NUTRIENT CONCENTRATIONS IN SMALL SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Coastal watersheds in the southeastern United States are rapidly changing due to population growth and attendant increases in residential development, industry, and tourism related commerce. This research examined spatial and temporal patterns of nutrient concentrations in streams from 10 small watersheds (< 4 km²) that drain into Murrells Inlet (impacted) and North Inlet (pristine), two high salinity estuaries along the South Carolina coast. Monthly grab samples were collected during baseflow during 1999 and analyzed for total and dissolved inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus. Data were grouped into forested wetland creeks (representing predevelopment reference sites), urban creeks, and urban ponds. DON and NH4 concentrations were greater in forested streams than in urban streams. NO3 and TP concentrations were greatest in urban streams. Seasonally, concentrations were highest during summer for TN, NH4, DON, and TP, while NO3 concentrations were greatest during winter. Nutrient ratios clearly highlighted the reduction in organic nitrogen due to coastal development. Multiple regression models to predict instream nutrient concentrations from land use in Murrells Inlet suggest that effects are not significant (small r²). The findings indicate that broad land use/land cover classes cannot be used to predict nutrient concentrations in streams in the very small watersheds in our study areas.     

EFFECTS OF FOREST FERTILIZATION ON STREAM WATER CHEMISTRY IN THE APPALACHIANS1

ABSTRACT: Stream water chemistry was monitored on two watersheds on the Fernow Experimental Forest in north-central West Virginia to determine the effects of forest fertilization on annual nutrient exports. Ammonium nitrate and triple superphosphate were applied simultaneously at rates of 336 kg ha^?1 N and 224 kg ha^?1 P₂O₅, respectively, which are similar to rates used in commercial forest operations. The treatment significantly increased outputs of several ions. Annual outputs of nitrate N increased as much as 18 times over pretreatment levels, and calcium and magnesium increased as much as three times over pretreatment levels the first year after fertilization. Outputs for these nutrients were elevated for all three post-treatment years. Although nitrate N increased significantly, only about 20 percent of the applied fertilizer was accounted for in stream water exports. Outputs of phosphate P declined following fertilization, probably because the watersheds are phosphorus deficient, but by the third year, they slightly exceeded predicted values. Estimated nutrient losses to deep seepage were substantial, especially on the leakier south-facing catchmeat, on which some nutrient losses were equal to or greater than those in stream water. When the nutrient exports associated with both stream discharge and ground water recharge were combined, the percentages of applied N that were lost were similar on the two watersheds, averaging 27.5 percent. Less than 1 percent of the applied P was lost from either watershed in the combination of streamflow and deep seepage.     

Evaluating the Slope‐Area Method to Accurately Identify Stream Channel Heads in Three Physiographic Regions

Estimation of stream channel heads is an important task since ephemeral channels play a significant role in the transport of sediment and materials to perennial streams. The slope‐area method utilizes digital elevation model (DEM) and related information to develop slope‐area threshold relationships used to estimate the position of channel heads in the watershed. A total of 162 stream channel heads were mapped across the three physiographic regions of Alabama, including the Southwestern Appalachians (51), Piedmont/Ridge and Valley (61), and Coastal Plains (51). Using Geographic Information System and DEM, the local slope and drainage area for each mapped channel head was calculated and region‐specific models were developed and evaluated. Results demonstrated the local slope and drainage area had an inverse and strong correlation in the Piedmont/Ridge and Valley region (r² = 0.71) and the Southwestern Appalachian region (r² = 0.61). Among three physiographic regions, the weakest correlation was observed in the Coastal Plain region (r² = 0.45). By comparing the locations of modeled channel heads to those located in the field, calculated reliability and sensitivity indices indicated model accuracy and reliance were weak to moderate. However, the slope‐area method helped define the upstream boundaries of a more detailed channel network than that derived from the 1:24,000‐scale National Hydrography Dataset, which is commonly used for planning and regulatory purposes.     

FOG AND ACIDIFICATION IMPACTS ON ION BUDGETS OF BASINS IN NOVA SCOTIA,CANADA1

ABSTRACT: We examined hydrogeochemical records for a dozen watersheds in and near Kejimkujik National Park in southwestern Nova Scotia by relating stream ion concentrations and fluxes to atmospheric deposition, stream type (lake inlet versus outlet; brown versus clear water), and watershed type (catchment area, topography, soils, and dominant forest cover type). We found that fog and dry deposition make important contributions to S, N, Cl, H, Ca, Mg, K, and Na inputs into these watersheds. Seasalt chloride deposition from rain, snow, fog, and dry deposition equal total stream outputs on a region‐wide basis. Chloride outputs, however, differ among watersheds by a factor of about two, likely due to local differences in air flow and vegetational fog interception. We found that most of the incoming N is absorbed by the vegetation, as stream water NO3^‐ and NH4⁺ are very low. Our results also show that the vegetation and the soils absorb about half of the incoming SO4². In comparison with other North American watersheds with similar forest vegetation, Ca outputs are low, while Mg and K outputs are similar to other regions. Soil exchangeable Ca and soil cation exchange capacity are also very low. We found that first‐order forest streams with no upstream lakes have a distinct seasonal pattern that neither corresponds with the seasonal pattern of atmospheric deposition, nor with the seasonal pattern of downstream lake outlets.     

The Influence of Forest Regrowth on the Stream Discharge in the North Carolina Piedmont Watersheds

This study focuses on the relationships of watershed runoff with historical land use/land cover (LULC) and climate trends. Over the 20th Century, LULC in the Southeast United States, particularly the North Carolina Piedmont, has evolved from an agriculture dominated to an extensively forested landscape with more recent localized urbanization. The regrowth of forest has an important influence on the hydrology of the region as it enhances ecosystem interaction with recent climate change. During 1920‐2009, the amount of precipitation in some parts of the North Carolina Piedmont forest regrowth area showed increasing trends without corresponding increments in runoff. We employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to backcast long‐term hydrologic behavior of watersheds in North Carolina with different LULC conditions: (1) LULC conversion from agricultural to forested area and (2) long‐term stable forested area. Comparing U.S. Geological Survey‐measured stream discharge with SWAT‐simulated stream discharge under the assumption of constant 2006 LULC, we found significant stream discharge underprediction by SWAT in two LULC conversion watersheds during the early simulation period (1920s) with differences gradually decreasing by the mid‐1970s. This model bias suggests that forest regrowth on abandoned agricultural land was a key factor contributing to mitigate the impact of increased precipitation on runoff due to increasing water consumption driven by changes in vegetation.     

Headwater Influences on Downstream Water Quality

We investigated the influence of riparian and whole watershed land use as a function of stream size on surface water chemistry and assessed regional variation in these relationships. Sixty-eight watersheds in four level III U.S. EPA ecoregions in eastern Kansas were selected as study sites. Riparian land cover and watershed land use were quantified for the entire watershed, and by Strahler order. Multiple regression analyses using riparian land cover classifications as independent variables explained among-site variation in water chemistry parameters, particularly total nitrogen (41%), nitrate (61%), and total phosphorus (63%) concentrations. Whole watershed land use explained slightly less variance, but riparian and whole watershed land use were so tightly correlated that it was difficult to separate their effects. Water chemistry parameters sampled in downstream reaches were most closely correlated with riparian land cover adjacent to the smallest (first-order) streams of watersheds or land use in the entire watershed, with riparian zones immediately upstream of sampling sites offering less explanatory power as stream size increased. Interestingly, headwater effects were evident even at times when these small streams were unlikely to be flowing. Relationships were similar among ecoregions, indicating that land use characteristics were most responsible for water quality variation among watersheds. These findings suggest that nonpoint pollution control strategies should consider the influence of small upland streams and protection of downstream riparian zones alone is not sufficient to protect water quality.     

Effects of flooding and drought on water quality in Gulf Coastal Plain streams in Georgia

Since 1994, water-quality constituents have been measured monthly in three adjacent Coastal Plain watersheds in southwestern Georgia. During 1994, rainfall was 650 mm above annual average and the highest flows on record were observed. From November 1998 through November 2000, 19 months had below average rainfall. Lowest flows on record were observed during the summer of 2000. The watersheds are human-dominated with row-crop agriculture and managed forestlands being the major land uses. However, one watershed (Chickasawhatchee Creek) had 10 to 13% less agriculture and greater wetland area, especially along the stream. Suspended particles, dissolved organic carbon, NH4-N, and soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations were greater during wet and flood periods compared with dry and drought periods for each stream. Regional hydrologic conditions had little effect on NO3-N or dissolved inorganic carbon. Chickasawhatchee Creek had significantly lower suspended sediment and NO3-N concentrations and greater organic and inorganic carbon concentrations, reflecting greater wetland area and stronger connection to a regional aquifer system. Even though substantial human land use occurred within all watersheds, water quality was generally good and can be attributed to low stream drainage density and relatively intact floodplain forests. Low drainage density minimizes surface run-off into streams. Floodplain forests reduce nonpoint-source pollutants through biological and physical absorption. In addition to preserving water quality, floodplain forests provide important ecological functions through the export of nutrients and organic carbon to streams. Extreme low flows may be disruptive to aquatic life due to both the lack of water and to the scarcity of biologically important materials originating from floodplain forests.     

Landscape Trends in Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States Ecoregions

Landscape pattern and composition metrics are potential indicators for broad-scale monitoring of change and for relating change to human and ecological processes. We used a probability sample of 20-km × 20-km sampling blocks to characterize landscape composition and pattern in five US ecoregions: the Middle Atlantic Coastal Plain, Southeastern Plains, Northern Piedmont, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge Mountains. Land use/land cover (LULC) data for five dates between 1972 and 2000 were obtained for each sample block. Analyses focused on quantifying trends in selected landscape pattern metrics by ecoregion and comparing trends in land cover proportions and pattern metrics among ecoregions. Repeated measures analysis of the landscape pattern documented a statistically significant trend in all five ecoregions towards a more fine-grained landscape from the early 1970s through 2000. The ecologically important forest cover class also became more fine-grained with time (i.e., more numerous and smaller forest patches). Trends in LULC, forest edge, and forest percent like adjacencies differed among ecoregions. These results suggest that ecoregions provide a geographically coherent way to regionalize the story of national land use and land cover change in the United States. This study provides new information on LULC change in the southeast United States. Previous studies of the region from the 1930s to the 1980s showed a decrease in landscape fragmentation and an increase in percent forest, while this study showed an increase in forest fragmentation and a loss of forest cover.     

Assessing Influences of Hydrology,Physicochemistry, and Habitat on Stream Fish Assemblages Across a Changing Landscape1

Abstract: We evaluated the impact of land cover on fish assemblages by examining relationships between stream hydrology, physicochemistry, and instream habitat and their association with fish responses in streams draining 18 watersheds of the Lower Piedmont of western Georgia. Several important relationships between land use and physicochemical, hydrological, and habitat parameters were observed, particularly higher frequency of spate flows, water temperatures, and lower dissolved oxygen (DO) with percentage impervious surface (IS) cover, higher habitat quality with percentage forest cover, and elevated suspended solid concentrations with percentage pasture cover. Fish assemblages were largely explained by physicochemical and hydrological rather than habitat variables. Specifically, fish species diversity, richness, and biotic integrity were lower in streams that received high frequency of spate flows. Also, overall fish assemblage structure as determined by nonmetric multidimensional scaling was best described by total dissolved solids (TDS) and DO, with high TDS and low DO streams containing sunfish‐based assemblages and low TDS and high DO streams containing minnow‐based assemblages. Our results suggest that altered hydrological and physicochemical conditions, induced largely by IS, may be a strong determinant of fish assemblage structure in these lowland streams and allow for a more mechanistic understanding of how land use ultimately affects these systems.     

Water Quality Functions of Riparian Forest Buffers in Chesapeake Bay Watersheds

/ Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, USA, have agreed to reduce nutrient loadings to Chesapeake Bay by 40% by the year 2000. This requires control of nonpoint sources of nutrients, much of which comes from agriculture. Riparian forest buffer systems (RFBS) provide effective control of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution in some types of agricultural watersheds. Control of NPS pollution is dependent on the type of pollutant and the hydrologic connection between pollution sources, the RFBS, and the stream. Water quality improvements are most likely in areas of where most of the excess precipitation moves across, in, or near the root zone of the RFBS. In areas such as the Inner Coastal Plain and Piedmont watersheds with thin soils, RFBS should retain 50%-90% of the total loading of nitrate in shallow groundwater, sediment in surface runoff, and total N in both surface runoff and groundwater. Retention of phosphorus is generally much less. In regions with deeper soils and/or greater regional groundwater recharge (such as parts of the Piedmont and the Valley and Ridge), RFBS water quality improvements are probably much less. The expected levels of pollutant control by RFBS are identified for each of nine physiographic provinces of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Issues related to of establishment, sustainability, and management are also discussed.KEY WORDS: Riparian forest buffers; Chesapeake Bay; Nonpoint source pollution; Nitrogen; Phosphorus; Sediment     

URBAN IMPACTS ON PHYSICAL STREAM CONDITION: EFFECTS OF SPATIAL SCALE,CONNECTIVITY, AND LONGITUDINAL TRENDS1

ABSTRACT: An assessment of physical conditions in urban streams of the Puget Sound region, coupled with spatially explicit watershed characterizations, demonstrates the importance of spatial scale, drainage network connectivity, and longitudinal downstream trends when considering the effects of urbanization on streams. A rapid stream assessment technique and a multimetric index were used to describe the physical conditions of multiple reaches in four watersheds. Watersheds were characterized using geographic information system (GIS) derived landscape metrics that represent the magnitude of urbanization at three spatial scales and the connectivity of urban land. Physical conditions, as measured by the physical stream conditions index (PSCI), were best explained for the watersheds by two landscape metrics: quantity of intense and grassy urban land in the subwatershed and quantity of intense and grassy urban land within 500 m of the site (R²= 0.52, p > 0.0005). A multiple regression of PSCI with these metrics and an additional connectivity metric (proximity of a road crossing) provided the best model for the three urban watersheds (R²= 0.41, p > 0.0005). Analyses of longitudinal trends in PSCI within the three urban watersheds showed that conditions improved when a stream flowed through an intact riparian buffer with forest or wetland vegetation and without road crossings. Results demonstrate that information on spatial scale and patterns of urbanization is essential to understanding and successfully managing urban streams.     

Bankfull Regional Curves for North and Northwest Florida Streams1

Abstract: Regional curves, which relate bankfull channel dimensions and discharge to watershed drainage area, are developed to aid in identifying the bankfull stage in ungaged watersheds, and estimating the bankfull discharge and dimensions for river studies and natural channel design applications. This study assessed 26 stable stream reaches in two hydro‐physiographic regions of the Florida Coastal Plain: the Northwest Florida Coastal Plain (NWFCP) and the North Florida Coastal Plain (NFCP). Data from stream reaches in Georgia and Alabama were also used to develop the Florida regional curves, since they are located in the same hydro‐physiographic region. Reaches were selected based on the presence of U.S. Geological Survey gage stations and indicators of limited watershed development (e.g., <10% impervious surface). Analyses were conducted to determine bankfull channel dimensions, bankfull discharge, average channel slope, and Rosgen stream classification. Based on these data, significant relationships were found between bankfull cross‐sectional area, width, mean depth, and discharge as a function of drainage area for both regions. Data from this study suggested that bankfull discharges and channel dimensions were larger from NWFCP streams than from Coastal Plain streams in North Carolina and Maryland. Bankfull discharges were similar between NFCP and Georgia coastal plain streams; therefore, the data were combined into one regional curve. In addition, the data were stratified by Rosgen stream type. This stratification strengthened the relationships of bankfull width and mean depth as a function of drainage area.     

Hydrological Responses to Climate and Land‐Use Changes along the North American East Coast: A 110‐Year Historical Reconstruction

The North American east coast (NAEC) region experienced significant climate and land‐use changes in the past century. To explore how these changes have affected land water cycling, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM 2.0) was used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of runoff and river discharge during 1901‐2010 in the study area. Annual runoff over the NAEC was 420 ± 61 mm/yr (average ± standard deviation). Runoff increased in parts of the northern NAEC but decreased in some areas of the southern NAEC. Annual freshwater discharge from the study area was 378 ± 61 km³/yr (average ± standard deviation). Factorial simulation experiments suggested that climate change and variability explained 97.5% of the interannual variability of runoff and also resulted in the opposite changes in runoff in northern and southern regions of the NAEC. Land‐use change reduced runoff by 5‐22 mm/yr from 1931 to 2010, but the impacts were divergent over the Piedmont region and Coastal Plain areas of the southern NAEC. Land‐use change impacts were more significant at local and watershed spatial scales rather than at regional scales. Different responses of runoff to changing climate and land‐use should be noted in future water resource management. Hydrological impacts of afforestation and deforestation as well as urbanization should also be noted by land‐use policy makers.     

Subsurface application of poultry litter and its influence on nutrient losses in runoff water from permanent pastures

Environmental pressure to reduce nutrient losses from agricultural fields has increased in recent years. To abate this nutrient loss to the environment, better management practices and new technologies need to be developed. Thus, research was conducted to evaluate if subsurface banding poultry litter (PL) would reduce nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loss in surface water runoff using a four-row prototype implement. Rainfall simulations were conducted to create a 40-min runoff event in an established bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon L.) pasture on soil types common to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions. The Coastal Plain soil type was a Marvyn loamy sand (fine-loamy, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Kanhapludults) and the Piedmont soil type was a Hard Labor loamy sand (fine, kaolinitic, thermic Oxyaquic Kanhapludults). Treatments consisted of surface- and subsurface-applied PL at a rate of 9 Mg ha(-1), surface broadcast-applied commercial fertilizer (CF; urea and triple superphosphate blend) at the equivalent N (330 kg N ha(-1)) and P (315 kg N ha(-1)) content of PL, and a nonfertilized control. The greatest loss for inorganic N, total N, dissolved reactive P (DRP), and total P occurred with the surface broadcast treatments, with CF contributing to the greatest loss. Nutrient losses from the subsurface banded treatment reduced N and P in surface water runoff to levels of the control. Subsurface banding of PL reduced concentrations of inorganic N 91%, total N 90%, DRP 86%, and total P 86% in runoff water compared with surface broadcasted PL. These results show that subsurface band-applied PL can greatly reduce the impact of N and P loss to the environment compared with conventional surface-applied PL and CF practices.     

LAND COVER AS A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING RISK OF WATER POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: A survey of numerous field studies shows that nitrogen and phosphorous export coefficients are significantly different across forest, agriculture, and urban land‐cover types. We used simulations to estimate the land‐cover composition at which there was a significant risk of nutrient loads representative of watersheds without forest cover. The results suggest that at between 20 percent and 30 percent nonforest cover, there is a 10 percent or greater chance of N or P nutrient loads being equivalent to the median values of predominantly agricultural or urban watersheds. The methods apply to environmental management for assessing the risk to increased nonpoint nutrient pollution. Interpretation of the risk measures are discussed relative to their application for a single watershed and across a region comprised of several watersheds.