EVALUATION OF SELECTED PESTICIDES IN NORTH CAROLINA SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES: INTAKE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Studies were conducted to analyze the presence of 11 selected pesticides in 12 surface water supply intakes in the Piedmont and coastal plain regions of North Carolina. Samples were assayed using enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). Samples with pesticide detection of 1 μg/L or greater were extracted and confirmed using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Detection limits of the immunosorbent assays for pesticide residues were generally an order of magnitude higher than GC/MS. Atrazine was detected in approximately 45 percent of the samples, and on two occasions was at or above the lifetime Maximum Contaminant Level of 3.0 μg/L set by the Environmental Protection Agency for an annual average in finished drinking water. Metolachlor was detected in 58 percent of the samples. Of the remaining nine pesticides, including carbaryl, aldicarb, 2,4‐D, chiorpyrifos, acetochlor, methomyl, carbofuran, alachlor, and chlorothalonil, only aldicarb, 2,4‐D, and chlorpyrifos were detected in less than 9 percent of the samples for each pesticide.     

ORGANOCHLORINE PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN BED SEDIMENTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Bed sediments of the San Joaquin River and its tributaries were sampled during October 7–11, 1985, and analyzed for organochiorine pesticide residues in order to determine their areal distribution and to evaluate and prioritize needs for further study. Residues of DDD, DDE, DDT, and dieldrin are widespread in the fine-grained bed sediments of the San Joaquin River and its tributaries despite little or no use of these pesticides for more than 15 years. The San Joaquin River has among the highest bed-sediment concentrations of DDD, DDE, DDT, and dieldrin residues of major rivers in the United States. Concentrations of all four pesticides were correlated with each other and with the amount of organic carbon and fine-grained particles in the bed sediments. The highest concentrations occurred in bed sediments of westside tributary streams. Potential tributary loads of DDD, DDE, DDT, and dieldrin to the San Joaquin River were computed from bed-sediment concentrations and data on streamfiow and suspended-sediment concentration in order to identify the general magnitude of differences between streams and to determine study priorities. The estimated loads indicate that the most important sources of residues during the study period were Salt Slough because of a high load of fine sediment, and Newman Wasteway, Orestimba Creek, and Hospital Creek because of high bed-sediment concentrations. Generally, the highest estimated loads of DDD, DDE, DDT, and dieldrin were in Orestimba and Hospital Creeks.     

IMPACT OF MINING ACTIVITIES ON WATER QUALITY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: An intensive water quality investigation was conducted in western North Carolina to determine whether water quality problems existed from point and nonpoint source inputs of sediment from surface mining activities. Depth integrated measurements of sediment transport and biological sampling of benthic communities indicated that very serious water quality problems were caused by erosion from a concentrated area of open pit mining for mica, kaolin, and feldspar. The erosion occurred on haul roads, active mines, inactive mines, and tailings disposal piles. The need for using specific “Best Management Practices” for erosion control on the mining operation is discussed. These practices need to be implemented to restore populations of trout to the degraded reaches of the river. Additional monitoring data are presented that indicate that the biological integrity of surface waters can be preserved in the vicinity of point source mining discharges when the operators utilize proper practices in settling and neutralizing their effluent. While much has been done to abate the point source discharges, attention now needs to be focused on the nonpoint sources of sediment from mining operations.     

MODELING THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFUSE NITROGEN SOURCES AND SINKS IN THE NEUSE RIVER BASIN OF NORTH CAROLINA,USA1

This study quantified nonpoint source nitrogen (NPS‐N) sources and sinks across the 14,582 km² Neuse River Basin (NRB) located in North Carolina, to provide tabular data summaries and graphic overlay products to support the development of management approaches to best achieve established N reduction goals. First, a remote sensor derived, land cover classification was performed to support modeling needs. Modeling efforts included the development of a mass balance model to quantify potential N sources and sinks, followed by a precipitation event driven hydrologic model to effectively transport excess N across the landscape to individual stream reaches to support subsequent labeling of transported N values corresponding to source origin. Results indicated that agricultural land contributed 55 percent of the total annual NPS‐N loadings, followed by forested land at 23 percent (background), and urban areas at 21 percent. Average annual N source contributions were quantified for agricultural (1.4 kg/ha), urban (1.2 kg/ha), and forested cover types (0.5 kg/ha). Nonpoint source‐N contributions were greatest during the winter (40 percent), followed by spring (32 percent), summer (28 percent), and fall (0.3 percent). Seasonal total N loadings shifted from urban dominated and forest dominated sources during the winter, to agricultural sources in the spring and summer. A quantitative assessment of the significant NRB land use activities indicated that high (greater than 70 percent impervious) and medium (greater than 35 percent impervious) density urban development were the greatest contributors of NPS‐N on a unit area basis (1.9 and 1.6 kg/ha/yr, respectively), followed by row crops and pasture/hay cover types (1.4 kg/ha/yr).     

REGIONAL PATTERNS OF PESTICIDE CONCENTRATIONS IN SURFACE WATERS OF NEW YORK IN 19971

ABSTRACT: The predominant mixtures of pesticides found in New York surface waters consist of five principal components. First, herbicides commonly used on corn (atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine) and a herbicide degradate (deethylatrazine) were positively correlated to a corn‐herbicide component, and watersheds with the highest corn‐herbicide component scores were those in which large amounts of row crops are grown. Second, two insecticides (diazinon and carbaryl) and one herbicide (prometon) widely used in urban and residential settings were positively correlated to an urban/residential component. Watersheds with the highest urban/residential component scores were those with large amounts of urban and residential land use. A third component was related to two herbicides (EPTC and cyanazine) used on dry beans and corn, the fourth to an herbicide (simazine) and an insecticide (carbaryl) commonly used in orchards and vineyards, and the fifth to an herbicide (DCPA). Results of this study indicate that this approach can be used to: (1) identify common mixtures of pesticides in surface waters, (2) relate these mixtures to land use and pesticide applications, and (3) indicate regions where these mixtures of pesticides are commonly found.     

GROUND AND SURFACE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF NORTH CAROLINA SANITARY LANDFILLS1

ABSTRACT: Ground and surface water quality monitoring data from 71 municipal sanitary landfills in North Carolina were analyzed to determine the nature and extent of current contamination problems and identify any common characteristics associated with this contamination. A total of 322 surface and 411 ground water quality records were analyzed using the SAS data system. Almost all the landfill records included inorganic and heavy metal analyses while approximately half of the records also included organic analyses by CC/MS. Our analysis indicates that landfills are having measurable impacts on ground and surface water quality, but these impacts may not be as severe as is commonly assumed. Statistically significant increases were detected in the average concentrations in ground water and downstream surface water samples when compared to upstream surface water samples. The largest percentage increases were observed for zinc, turbidity, total organic carbon, conductivity, total dissolved solids, and lead. Violations of ground water quality standards for heavy metals and hazardous organic compounds were detected at 53 percent of the landfills where adequate data existed. The moat common heavy metal violations were for lead (18 percent), chromium (18 percent), zinc (6 percent), cadmium (6 percent), and arsenic (6 percent) (percentage of landfills violating shown in parenthesis). The organic compounds that appear to pose the greatest threat to ground water are the chlorinated solvents (8 percent), petroleum derived hydrocarbons (8 percent), and pesticides (5 percent). A comparison of monitoring data from sanitary landfills and secondary wastewater treatment plants suggests that the concentrations of heavy metal and organic pollutants discharged to surface waters from these two sources are similar.     

FACTORS AFFECTING PESTICIDE OCCURRENCE AND TRANSPORT IN A LARGE MIDWESTERN RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Several factors affect the occurrence and transport of pesticides in surface waters of the 29,400 km² White River Basin in Indiana. A relationship was found between pesticide use and the average annual concentration of that pesticide in the White River, although this relationship varies for different classes of pesticides. About one percent of the mass applied of each of the commonly used agricultural herbicides was transported from the basin via the White River. Peak pesticide concentrations were typically highest in late spring or early summer and were associated with periods of runoff following application. Concentrations of diazinon were higher in an urban basin than in two agricultural basins, corresponding to the common use of this insecticide on lawns and gardens in urban areas. Concentrations of atrazine, a corn herbicide widely used in the White River Basin, were higher in an agricultural basin with permeable, well‐drained soils, than in an agricultural basin with less permeable, more poorly drained soils. Although use of butylate and cyanazine was comparable in the White River Basin between 1992 and 1994, concentrations in the White River of butylate, which is incorporated into soil, were substantially less than for cyanazine, which is typically applied to the soil surface.     

GROUND WATER YIELDS AND INVENTORY FOR LAND-USE PLANNING IN CRYSTALLINE ROCK AREAS OF WAKE COUNTY,NORTH CAROLINA1

In urbanizing areas underlain by crystalline rocks an inventory of the usable ground water should form an important element in the land-use planning process. Land-use decisions are most often made upon water-well yield data alone, but these data do not address the inventory question. A method utilizing local geology, stream lowflow characteristics, and pumping test data permitted outlining portions of Wake County, North Carolina, which are more favorable and those which are less favorable for ground water supply development. Information from state-required 24-hour pumping tests on 232 wells was supplemented by information from an additional 100 wells whose initial yields were determined by shorter pumping tests. Comparison of the ground water inventory values on a per acre or per square mile basis with average water use at various residential densities provides information useful to the responsible political body as it decides about population density distribution and the need for surface water supplies. For Wake Country an average density of one residential unit per acre appears generally permissible before overdraft of the ground water supplies becomes a significant risk. By utilizing the ground water inventory and patterns of ground water yields from various rock types, county officials can maximize the effectiveness of public facilities funds. The technique appears useful for other parts of the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States.     

PREDICTION OF MEAN ANNUAL FLOWS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: A frequency analysis approach for the prediction of flow characteristics at ungaged locations is applied to a region of high annual precipitation and low topography in north and central Florida. Stationary time series of annual flows are fitted with the lognormal distribution and estimated parameters of the distribution are fitted by third order trend surfaces. These explain 65 and 74 percent of the observed variances in the mean and standard deviation, respectively. Predictions of parameters are then made for several locations previously unused in the study and they are used to estimate the return periods of various flows from the lognormal distribution. Application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test suggests that only one of the five test stations can be considered significantly different from the observed data, confirming the applicability of this technique.     

THE EFFECTS OF DIPOTASSIUM ENDOTHALL ON THE ZOOPLANKTON AND WATER QUALITY OF A SMALL POND1

ABSTRACT: Zooplankton samples and dissolved oxygen-temperature readings and water samples were taken from a treatment and control pond on 41 and 42 separate occasions, respectively, both before and after the application of 5.0 mg/l (a.i.) dipotassium endothall to the 0.31 ha treatment pond on May 31, 1973. Seasonal fluctuations in the density of Cladocera and Copepoda coincided quite closely in both ponds and were similar to the fluctuations reported in the literature to be typical of temperate region ponds and lakes. An apparent seasonal shift in generic composition from .Daphnia spp. in May to Ceriodaphnia spp. in June to Chydorus spp. from July/early September occurred in both ponds and is thought to be at least partially due to fish predation. No apparent changes in species composition or generic densities of Cladocerans was noted in the treatment pond that did not also occur in the control pond. There were no noticeable effects of the dipotassium endothall on either the Calanoida or Cyclopoida suborders of Copepoda. A later pulse of Ostracoda in the treatment pond, when compared to the control, may have been due to the dipotassium endothall or to a combination of the effects of the herbicide on the macrophytes and the method of sampling. A decrease in dissolved oxygen below saturation, occurring in the treated pond from 3–21 days after treatment, was attributed to an increase in biological oxygen demand associated with weed-kill. There was no noticeable increase in plant nutrients (N and P) in the treated pond following herbicide application, nor were there any apparent changes in the other chemical parameters studied.     

CONSIDERATIONS OF SCALE IN WATER QUALITY MONITORING AND DATA ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An assumption of scale is inherent in any environmental monitoring exercise. The temporal or spatial scale of interest defines the statistical model which would be most appropriate for a given system and thus affects both sampling design and data analysis. Two monitoring objectives which are strongly tied to scale are the estimation of average conditions and the evaluation of trends. For both of these objectives, the time or spatial scale of interest strongly influences whether a given set of observations should be regarded as independent or serially correlated and affects the importance of serial correlation in choosing statistical methods. In particular serial correlation has a much different effect on the estimation of long-term means than it does on the estimation of specific-period means. For estimating trends, a distinction between serial correlation and trend is scale dependent. An explicit consideration of scale in monitoring system design and data analysis is, therefore, most important for producing meaningful statistical information.     

CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF LANDUSE ON WATER QUALITY IN A SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Water quality variables were sampled over 109 weeks along Coweeta Creek, a fifth-order stream located in the Appalachian mountains of western North Carolina. The purpose of this study was to observe any changes in water quality, over a range of flow conditions, with concomitant downstream changes in the mix of landuses. Variables sampled include pH, HCO₃^2?, conductivity, NO₃^?_?-N, NH₄⁺-N, PO₄^3?-P, C1^?-, Na, K, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, SO₄^2?, 5iO₂, turbidity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, total and fecal coliform, and focal streptococcus. Landcover/landuse was interpreted from 1:20,000 aerial photographs and entered in a GIS, along with information on total and paved road length, building location and density, catchment boundaries, hydrography, and slope. Linear regressions were performed to relate basin and near-stream landscape variables to water quality. Consistent, cumulative, downstream changes in water quality variables were observed along Coweeta Creek, concomitant with downstream, human-caused changes in landuse. Furthermore, larger downstream changes in water quality variables were observed during stormflow when compared to baseflow, suggesting cumulative impacts due to landscape alteration under study conditions were much greater during storm events. Although most water quality regulations, legislation, and sampling are promulgated for baseflow conditions, this work indicates they should also consider the cumulative impacts of physical, chemical, and biological water quality during stormflow.     

ANALYSIS OF WIND- AND SHIP-INDUCED SEDIMENT RESUSPENSION IN DULUTH-SUPERIOR HARBOR1

ABSTRACT: Suspended solids and ammonium concentration profiles measured at five locations in Duluth-Superior Harbor during July-October 1985 were analyzed to quantify wind and ship effects on sediment resuspension and resulting harbor water quality. Wind components from the SE quadrant correlated strongly with depth-averaged suspended solids concentrations that were unaffected by ship passage or thermal stratification. Winds from that quadrant have the largest fetch in the harbor. The highest correlation (r²= 0.93) was with the 6-hour average of the ESE wind velocity component. Multiple linear regression analysis of data from post-ship passage concentration profiles yielded numerical estimates of settling velocities of 0.08 to 0.25 cm s^?1, typical of ship-resuspended sediments, and vertical eddy diffusivities of 4 to 13 cm² s¹. The results suggest that ambient vertical eddy diffusivities in the harbor are less than 4 cm² s^?1 in the absence of ship passages and with winds less than 5 m s^?1 (10 knots).     

HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY RELATIONSHIPS FOR URBAN STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: Hydraulic geometry relationships, or regional curves, relate bankfull stream channel dimensions to watershed drainage area. Hydraulic geometry relationships for streams throughout North Carolina vary with hydrology, soils, and extent of development within a watershed. An urban curve that is the focus of this study shows the bankfull features of streams in urban and suburban watersheds throughout the North Carolina Piedmont. Seventeen streams were surveyed in watersheds that had greater than 10 percent impervious cover. The watersheds had been developed long enough for the streams to redevelop bankfull features, and they had no major impoundments. The drainage areas for the streams ranged from 0.4 to 110.3 square kilometers. Cross‐sectional and longitudinal surveys were conducted to determine the channel dimension, pattern, and profile of each stream and power functions were fitted to the data. Comparisons were made with regional curves developed previously for the rural Piedmont, and enlargement ratios were produced. These enlargement ratios indicated a substantial increase in the hydraulic geometry for the urban streams in comparison to the rural streams. A comparison of flood frequency indicates a slight decrease in the bankfull discharge return interval for the gaged urban streams as compared to the gaged rural streams. The study data were collected by North Carolina State University (NCSU), the University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNC), and Charlotte Storm Water Services. Urban regional curves are useful tools for applying natural channel design in developed watersheds. They do not, however, replace the need for field calibration and verification of bankfull stream channel dimensions.     

RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN,MINNESOTA, NORTH DAKOTA,AND SOUTH DAKOTA1

ABSTRACT: The environmental setting of the Red River of the North basin within the United States is diverse in ways that could significantly control the areal distribution and flow of water and, therefore, the distribution and concentration of constituents that affect water quality. Continental glaciers shaped a landscape of very flat lake plains near the center of the basin, and gently rolling uplands, lakes, and wetlands along the basin margins. The fertile, black, fine-grained soils and landscape are conducive to agriculture. Productive cropland covers 66 percent of the land area. The principal crops are wheat, barley, soybeans, sunflowers, corn, and hay. Pasture, forests, open water, and wetlands comprise most of the remaining land area. About one-third of the 1990 population (511,000) lives in the cities of Fargo and Grand Forks, North Dakota and Moorhead, Minnesota. The climate of the Red River of the North basin is continental and ranges from dry subhumid in the western part of the basin to subhumid in the eastern part. From its origin, the Red River of the North meanders northward for 394 miles to the Canadian border, a path that is nearly double the straight-line distance. The Red River of the North normally receives over 75 percent of its annual flow from the eastern tributaries as a result of regional patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soils, and topography. Most runoff occurs in spring and early summer as a result of rains falling on melting snow or heavy rains falling on saturated soils. Lakes, prairie potholes, and wetlands are abundant in most physiographic areas outside of the Red River Valley Lake Plain. Dams, drainage ditches, and wetlands alter the residence time of water, thereby affecting the amount of sediment, biota, and dissolved constituents carried by the water. Ground water available to wells, streams, and springs primarily comes from sand and gravel aquifers near land surface or buried within 100 to 300 feet of glacial drift that mantles the entire Red River of the North basin. Water moves through the system of bedrock and glacial-drift aquifers in a regional flow system generally toward the Red River of the North and in complex local flow systems controlled by local topography. Many of the bedrock and glacial-drift aquifers are hydraulically connected to streams in the region. The total water use in 1990, about 196 million gallons per day, was mostly for public supply and irrigation. Slightly more than one half of the water used comes from ground-water sources compared to surface-water sources. Most municipalities obtain their water from ground-water sources. However, the largest cities (Fargo, Grand Forks and Moorhead) obtain most of their water from the Red River of the North. The types and relative amounts of various habitats change among the five primary ecological regions within the Red River of the North basin. Headwater tributaries are more diverse and tend to be similar to middle-reach tributaries in character rather than the lower reaches of these tributaries for the Red River of the North. Concentrations of dissolved chemical constituents in surface waters are normally low during spring runoff and after thunderstorms. The Red River of the North generally has a dissolved-solids concentration less than 600 milligrams per liter with mean values ranging from 347 milligrams per liter near the headwaters to 406 milligrams per liter at the Canadian border near Emerson, Manitoba. Calcium and magnesium are the principal cations and bicarbonate is the principal anion along most of the reach of the Red River of the North. Dissolved-solids concentrations generally are lower in the eastern tributaries than in the tributaries draining the western part of the basin. At times of low flow, when water in streams is largely from ground-water seepage, the water quality more reflects the chemistry of the glacial-drift aquifer system. Ground water in the surficial aquifers commonly is a calcium bicarbonate type with dissolved-solids concentration generally between 300 and 700 milligrams per liter. As the ground water moves down gradient, dissolved-solids concentration increases, and magnesium and sulfate are predominant ions. Water in sedimentary bedrock aquifers is predominantly sodium and chloride and is characterized by dissolved-solids concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter. Sediment erosion by wind and water can be increased by cultivation practices and by livestock that trample streambanks. Nitrate-nitrogen concentrations also can increase locally in surficial aquifers beneath cropland that is fertilized, particularly where irrigated. Nitrogen and phosphorous in surface runoff from cropland fertilizers and nitrogen from manure can contribute nutrients to lakes, reservoirs, and streams. Some of the more persistent pesticides, such as atrazine, have been detected in the Red River of the North. Few data are available to conclusively define the presence or absence of pesticides and their break-down products in Red River of the North basin aquifers or streams. Urban runoff and treated effluent from municipalities are discharged into streams. These point discharges contain some quantity of organic compounds from storm runoff, turf-applied pesticides, and trace metals. The largest releases of treated-municipal wastes are from the population centers along the Red River of the North and its larger tributaries. Sugar-beet refining, potato processing, poultry and meat packing, and milk, cheese, and cream processing are among the major food processes from which treated wastes are released to streams, mostly in or near the Red River of the North.     

THERMAL AND DISSOLVED OXYGEN CHARACTERISTICS OF A SOUTH CAROLINA COOLING RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: Temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations were measured monthly from January 1971 to December 1982 at 1-m depth intervals at 13 stations in Keowee Reservoir in order to characterize spatial and temporal changes associated with operation of the Oconee Nuclear Station. The reservoir water column was i to 4°C warmer in operational than in non-operational years. The thermo-dine was at depths of 5 to 15 m before the operation of Oconee Nuclear Station, but was always below the upper level of the intake (20 m) after the station was in full operation; this suggests that pumping by the Oconee Nuclear Station had depleted all available cool hypolimnetic water to this depth. As a result summer water temperatures at depths greater than 10 m were usually 10°C higher after plant operation began than before. By fall the reservoir was nearly homothemious to a depth of 27 m, where a thermocine developed. Seasonal temperature profiles varied with distance from the plant; a cool water plume was evident in spring and a warm water plume was present in the summer, fall, and winter. A cold water plume also developed in the northern section of the reservoir due to the operation of Jocassee Pumped Storage Station. Increases in the mean water temperature of the reservoir during operational periods were correlated with the generating output of the power plant. The annual heat load to the reservoir increased by one-third after plant operations began. The alteration of the thermal stratification of the receiving water during the summer also caused the dissolved oxygen to mix to greater depths.     

FOREST PRACTICES AS NONPOINT SOURCES OF POLLUTION IN NORTH AMERICA1

ABSTRACT: Forest management activities may substantially alter the quality of water draining forests, and are regulated as nonpoint sources of pollution. Important impacts have been documented, in some cases, for undesirable changes in stream temperature and concentrations of dissolved oxygen, nitrate-N, and suspended sediments. We present a comprehensive summary of North American studies that have examined the impacts of forest practices on each of these parameters of water quality. In most cases, retention of forested buffer strips along streams prevents unacceptable increases in stream temperatures. Current practices do not typically involve addition of large quantities of fine organic material to streams, and depletion of streamwater oxygen is not a problem; however, sedimentation of gravel streambeds may reduce oxygen diffusion into spawning beds in some cases. Concentrations of nitrate-N typically increase substantially after forest harvesting and fertilization, but only a few cases have resulted in concentrations approaching the drinking-water standard of 10 mg of nitrate-NIL. Road construction and harvesting increase suspended sediment concentrations in streamwater, with highly variable results among regions in North America. The use of best management practices usually prevents unacceptable increases in sediment concentrations, but exceptionally large responses (especially in relation to intense storms) are not unusual.     

WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND DROUGHT FORECASTS IN SOUTH CAROLINA1

ABSTRACT: Despite potential benefits for resource planning, community water systems managers have not used seasonal climate forecasts extensively. Obstacles to forecast use include a lack of awareness of their existence, distrust of their accuracy, perceived irrelevance to management decisions, and competition from other technological innovations. In this paper, ways in which seasonal forecasts might be extended to address more directly some concerns of South Carolina community water systems managers are explored. From May 1998 through August 2002, this group experienced drought conditions that threatened water quality and supply and required restrictions on water consumption. Methods for incorporating long lead forecasts with joint probabilities of monthly temperature and precipitation to produce drought forecasts are demonstrated. When tailored to specific places, such forecasts show the likelihood of exceeding drought thresholds that would trigger water use restrictions. The methods illustrate how long lead forecasts can be extended and customized into secondary products that address issues of greater relevance to water resource managers.     

NUTRIENT MASS BALANCE FOR THE ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO DRAINAGE BASIN,NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA, 19901

ABSTRACT: A 1990 nitrogen and phosphorus mass balance calculated for eight National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) basins in the Albemarle-Pamlico Drainage Basin indicated the importance of agricultural nonpoint sources of nitrogen and phosphorus and watershed nitrogen retention and processing capabilities. Basin total nitrogen and phosphorus input estimates were calculated for atmospheric deposition (which averaged 27 percent of total nitrogen inputs and 22 percent of total phosphorus inputs); crop fertilizer (27 and 25 percent); animal-waste (22 and 50 percent, respectively); point sources (3 percent each of total nitrogen and total phosphorus inputs); and biological nitrogen fixation (21 percent of total nitrogen inputs). Highest in-stream nitrogen and phosphorus loads were measured in predominantly agricultural drainage areas. Intermediate loads were observed in mixed agricultural/urban drainage areas; the lowest loads were measured in mixed agricultural/forested drainage areas. The difference between the sum of the nutrient input categories and the sum of the in-stream nutrient loads and crop-harvest nutrient removal was assigned to a residual category for the basin. The residual category averaged 51 percent of total nitrogen inputs and 54 percent of total phosphorus inputs.     

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED USING SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: This paper demonstrates how satellite image data [e.g., from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM)], in conjunction with an urban growth model and simple runoff calculations, can be used to estimate future surface runoff and, by implication, water quality within a watershed. To illustrate the method, predictions of land use change and surface runoff are shown for Spring Creek Watershed, a medium sized urbanizing watershed in Central Pennsylvania. Land cover classifications for this watershed were created from images for summertime 1986 and 1996 and subsequently used as input to the Clarke urban growth model, called SLEUTH, to predict land use changes to the year 2025. Simulations with this model show a progressive growth in the percentage of urban pixels and in impervious surface area in the watershed but also an increase in woodland, primarily in previously clear‐cut areas. Given that woodland area will continue to increase in area, surface runoff into Spring Creek is predicted to remain only slightly above present level. However, should the woodland amount fail to increase, surface runoff is then predicted to increase more significantly during the next 25 years. Finally, the concept of urban sprawl is addressed within the context of predicted increases in urbanization by relating the implied increase in impervious surface area to population density within the watershed.