Climate change and coastal aquaculture farmers’ risk perceptions: experiences from Bangladesh and Denmark

This paper addresses the issue of risk perception in relation to climate change threats, comparison of risk perceptions in two different regions, and derives general results of what affect peoples’ level of risk perceptions. Revelation of individual risk perception is essential for local acceptance and cooperation. We do this by a comparative study with Bangladesh shrimp farmers and Danish mussel farmers. Since these people live on the edge of subsistence, already small changes in the climate will affect them significantly. Farmers in both developed and developing economies are concerned about global climate change but there are significant differences in farmers’ perceptions of the causes of global climate change in developed and developing countries.     

How much do people who live near major nuclear facilities worry about those facilities? Analysis of national and site-specific data

Large nuclear waste management, laboratory and electric power generating complexes are a daunting challenge for state, regional and local planners. A survey of 2101 residents who lived near 11 nuclear power plants and US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear waste management sites and laboratories was conducted to determine how much nearby residents worried about accidents and chronic emissions at the nuclear sites, how much they trusted the sites’ responsible parties, and actions that they wanted responsible parties to take to reduce public concern. Six hundred other people who lived elsewhere in the US were a comparison group. Nuclear site-related issues were a greater concern among the 2101 who lived near the sites than the comparison group. Yet many were more concerned about global warming, traffic congestion, and loss of open space than nuclear technologies. Monitoring the environment and people were the actions deemed most likely to reduce public concern. The results pose a challenge to owner-operators of nuclear facilities, government entities and especially to locally based environmental planners and managers to establish partnerships with each other and diverse communities that will allow them to manage some of these risks for decades and in some cases into perpetuity.     

Artisan fishers’ perception of climate change and disasters in coastal Bangladesh

Climate change is affecting fishing communities across Bangladesh. While work has been undertaken to investigate the nature of these impacts, understanding how fishers perceive climate change at a local level, especially within developing countries, is crucial. This paper presents the results of a three-year study of the contextual determinants and dimensions of artisanal fishing community perceptions about climate change in coastal Bangladesh. Results of this study indicate that geographic characteristics, socio-economic status, worldviews, tradition, observations and disaster experiences are important determinants for shaping fishers’ perceptions about climate change. Fishers also demonstrate a long-standing tradition of risk adaptation strategies, but do not link them to climate change. We argue that these perceptions provide ideas for how to form appropriate climate responses at local levels not only in Bangladesh but other developing countries.     

SENSITIVITY OF A PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: We assessed the potential effects of increased temperature and changes in amount and seasonal timing of precipitation on the hydrology and vegetation of a semi-permanent prairie wetland in North Dakota using a spatially-defined, rule-based simulation model. Simulations were run with increased temperatures of 2°C combined with a 10 percent increase or decrease in total growing season precipitation. Changes in precipitation were applied either evenly across all months or to individual seasons (spring, summer, or fall). The response of semi-permanent wetland P1 was relatively similar under most of the seasonal scenarios. A 10 percent increase in total growing season precipitation applied to summer months only, to fall months only, and over all months produced lower water levels compared to those resulting from the current climate due to increased evapotranspiration. Wetland hydrology was most affected by changes in spring precipitation and runoff. Vegetation response was relatively consistent across scenarios. Seven of the eight seasonal scenarios produced drier conditions with no open water and greater vegetation cover compared to those resulting from the current climate. Only when spring precipitation increased did the wetland maintain an extensive open water area (49 percent). Potential changes in climate that affect spring runoff, such as changes to spring precipitation and snow melt, may have the greatest impact on prairie wetland hydrology and vegetation. In addition, relatively small changes in water level during dry years may affect the period of time the wetland contains open water. Emergent vegetation, once it is established, can survive under drier conditions due to its ability to persist in shallow water with fluctuating levels. The model's sensitivity to changes in temperature and seasonal precipitation patterns accentuates the need for accurate regional climate change projections from general circulation models.     

1971-2016年新疆极端温度时空变化特征分析

基于新疆地区42个气象站点1971-2016年逐日温度数据资料,选取世界气象组织(WMO)推荐的10个极端温度指标,使用线性趋势法、克里金插值法和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析该地区极端温度指数在时间和空间上的变化规律.结果 表明:新疆地区1971-2016年间4个极端高温指数均呈现出明显的上升趋势,除极...     

The impact of visual information on perceptions of water resource problems and management alternatives

To assess changes in human understanding and decision making, the paper examines (1) the influence of visual information on perceptions about groundwater management in Phoenix, Arizona and (2) the correlates and dimensions underlying people's views about water scarcity and mitigation strategies. While perceptions entrenched in ideologies are difficult to change, different types of information (three-dimensional versus two-dimensional) have distinct impacts on the perceived magnitude of problems compared to judgements about their causes and solutions. Overall, visual information may be especially useful for developing a shared understanding of problems and a collective vision for management alternatives. Additional implications of this study for fostering environmental awareness, policy support, and collaborative decision making are also discussed.     

The unusual suspects? Perception of underlying causes of anthropogenic climate change in coastal communities in Cambodia and Tanzania

Public perception of the underlying causes of anthropogenic climate change is a complex and subjective issue that is critical to effective risk communication. This issue is important to scientists and policymakers because of the role of individual perceptions in influencing their protective behaviour towards risk (e.g., the adoption of climate risk reduction and mitigation strategies). This cross-sectional study elucidated people's perceptions of the underlying causes of human-induced climate change in coastal communities in Cambodia and Tanzania. The multinomial logistic regression model was based on a geographically and demographically stratified national sample of 3,706 individuals conducted between March and September 2013. The distribution of the fundamental causes of anthropogenic climate change in the pooled sample was deforestation (29%), overpopulation – births and immigration (18%), greenhouse gas emissions (12%), illegal resource extraction (14%), and God's will and transgressing cultural norms (26%). Few people in both countries believed that, the usual suspect, greenhouse gas emission was the fundamental cause of anthropogenic climate change. The number of poor rural residents who indicated that deforestation was the major underlying cause of climate change was approximately three times more than members of the same sub-group who noted that greenhouse gas emissions were the underlying cause of climate change. People who had tertiary education were less likely to consider God's will and transgressing cultural norms as the underlying cause of anthropogenic climate change rather than attributing it to greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it is imperative to mainstream climate change into educational curricula in both countries.     

Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis1

Hester, Erich T. and Martin W. Doyle, 2011. Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):571‐587. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00525.x Abstract: Land‐use change and water resources management increasingly impact stream and river temperatures and therefore aquatic organisms. Efforts at thermal mitigation are expected to grow in future decades. Yet the biological consequences of both human thermal impacts and proposed mitigation options are poorly quantified. This study provides such context for river thermal management in two ways. First, we summarize the full spectrum of human thermal impacts to help thermal managers consider the relative magnitudes of all impacts and mitigation options. Second, we synthesize biological sensitivity to river temperature shifts using thermal performance curves, which relate organism‐level biological processes to temperature. This approach supplements the popular use of thermal thresholds by directly estimating the impact of temperature shifts on the rates of key biological processes (e.g., growth). Our results quantify a diverse array of human thermal impacts, revealing that human actions tend to increase more than decrease river temperatures. Our results also provide a practical framework in which to quantify the sensitivity of river organisms to such impacts and related mitigation options. Finally, among the data and studies we synthesized, river organisms appear to be more sensitive to temperature above than below their thermal maxima, and fish are more sensitive to temperature change than invertebrates.     

Place,human agency and community resilience – considerations for public health management of smoke from prescribed burning

Prescribed burning is now a widely accepted bushfire hazard management strategy. While evidence points to reduced levels of public health harm compared to severe bushfire, smoke created by planned burns remains a community concern with need for evidence-based public health management. Findings are presented from an Australian study of community experiences of prescribed burns, associated smoke, and public health communications. We find that “place” influences how information is received and used for the management of the effects of planned burns; and that this is significant for human agency and community resilience. We provide recommendations for public health management.     

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.     

气候变化风险互联网络及系统性管理

气候变化风险能够在部门内与部门间进行传递和放大,形成多个复杂嵌套的风险互联网络,导致了系统性风险的产生。对气候变化风险互联网络的刻画能够帮助理解风险产生与演化的过程,削减气候变化对社会经济系统的直接物理风险,及碳达峰与碳中和建设过程中可能伴随的转型风险。本文识别了四类典型的气候变化风险互联网络,涵盖食品—能源—水系统、公共健康、宏观经济和金融市场、社会安全等四类部门或领域。针对每一类网络,分别总结了主要的气候变化风险传递路径及当前的研究进展和局限,并概述了开展系统性风险管理的建议。