STORM RUNOFF PREDICTION BASED ON A SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED TRAVEL TIME METHOD UTILIZING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: In this study, remotely sensed data and geographic information system (GIS) tools were used to estimate storm runoff response for Simms Creek watershed in the Etonia basin in northeast Florida. Land cover information from digital orthophoto quarter quadrangles (DOQQ), and enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) were analyzed for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000. The corresponding infiltration excess runoff response of the study area was estimated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS‐CN) method. A digital elevation model (DEM)/GIS technique was developed to predict stream response to runoff events based on the travel time from each grid cell to the watershed outlet. A comparison of predicted to observed stream response shows that the model predicts the total runoff volume with an efficiency of 0.98, the peak flow rate at an efficiency of 0.85, and the full direct runoff hydrograph with an average efficiency of 0.65. The DEM/GIS travel time model can be used to predict the runoff response of ungaged watersheds and is useful for predicting runoff hydrographs resulting from proposed large scale changes in the land use.     

Effects of Forest Composition and Spatial Patterns on Storm Flows of a Small Watershed1

Abstract: The PRMS_Storm model was built as a storm event, distributed hydrological model for studying the hydrological effects of forest composition and spatial distribution on storm‐flow volume and peakflow rates in the Xiangshuixi Watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, in the Yangtze River Basin in southwestern China. We developed three simulation scenarios based on forest composition and their spatial arrangements across the watershed, including all mixed conifer‐evergreen broadleaf forests (Scenario 1), all mixed evergreen broadleaf forests (Scenario 2), and mixed conifer + evergreen broadleaf + shrub forests (Scenario 3). We examined 11 storm events observed during 2002‐2005. Compared with the existing forest covers, modeling results suggested that the amount of overland flow was reduced by 21, 23, and 22%, and the interflow increased by 16, 88, and 30%, for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. During the same time, peakflow rates were reduced by 20.8, 9.6, and 18.9%, respectively. The reduction of peakflow rates was most significant when rainfall intensity exceeded 0.8 mm/min and events with a short duration and effect was minor when rainfall intensity was below 0.5 mm/min. In general, we found that Scenarios 1 and 3 were preferred for reducing storm‐flow volume and peakflow rates due to their higher interception rates, large soil water holding capacity, and higher soil infiltration capacity. The modeled results suggested soil properties are important in affecting the flow processes and thus forest composition and forest spatial distributions will affect storm‐flow volume and peakflow rates at the watershed scale. To maximize flood reduction functions of a watershed, high priority should be given to those forest types (Scenarios 1 and 3) in reforestation practices in the study region. This study suggests both forest composition and spatial pattern are important reforestation designs for flood reduction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.     

Using a GIS Model to Identify Internally Drained Areas and Runoff Contribution in a Glaciated Watershed1

Macholl, Jacob A., Katherine A. Clancy, and Paul M. McGinley, 2011. Using a GIS Model to Identify Internally Drained Areas and Runoff Contribution in a Glaciated Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):114‐125. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00495.x Abstract: Glaciated watersheds are not easily delineated using geographic information systems’ elevation‐based algorithms, especially where stream networks are disconnected and there are large regions of internally drained areas. This paper presents the results of an analysis using the Potential Contributing Source Area (PCSA) model to identify potential contributing areas, defined as areas from which runoff is physically capable of reaching a drainage network. The investigation was conducted to define the potential contributing areas in a glaciated region of northwest Wisconsin. The curve number (CN) method was used to predict runoff volumes in the watershed. The streamflows of four tributaries were measured and the runoff portion of the hydrograph quantified to be compared with runoff estimates calculated using the potential contributing areas and the traditional catchment area. Runoff producing events occurred, but the use of area‐weighted CN values was unsuccessful in modeling runoff due to all precipitation depths during the study period falling below the initial abstraction. A distributed CN approach provided runoff estimates that were generally better using the potential contributing areas compared with using the traditional catchment area. The extent of the minimum contributing area, estimated for a range of precipitation events, was found to be substantially less than the potential contributing areas, suggesting that the PCSA model delimits the maximum boundary of potential contributing areas.     

WATERSHED WEIGHTING OF EXPORT COEFFICIENTS TO MAP CRITICAL PHOSPHOROUS LOADING AREAS1

ABSTRACT: The Export Coefficient model (ECM) is capable of generating reasonable estimates of annual phosphorous loading simply from a watershed's land cover data and export coefficient values (ECVs). In its current form, the ECM assumes that ECVs are homogeneous within each land cover type, yet basic nutrient runoff and hydrological theory suggests that runoff rates have spatial patterns controlled by loading and filtering along the flow paths from the upslope contributing area and downslope dispersal area. Using a geographic information system (GIS) raster, or pixel, modeling format, these contributing area and dispersal area (CADA) controls were derived from the perspective of each individual watershed pixel to weight the otherwise homogeneous ECVs for phosphorous. Although the CADA‐ECM predicts export coefficient spatial variation for a single land use type, the lumped basin load is unaffected by weighting. After CADA weighting, a map of the new ECVs addressed the three fundamental criteria for targeting critical pollutant loading areas: (1) the presence of the pollutant, (2) the likelihood for runoff to carry the pollutant offsite, and (3) the likelihood that buffers will trap nutrients prior to their runoff into the receiving water body. These spatially distributed maps of the most important pollutant management areas were used within New York's West Branch Delaware River watershed to demonstrate how the CADA‐ECM could be applied in targeting phosphorous critical loading areas.     

STORMFLOW SIMULATION USING A GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM WITH A DISTRIBUTED APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: With the increasing availability of digital and remotely sensed data such as land use, soil texture, and digital elevation models (DEMs), geographic information systems (GIS) have become an indispensable tool in preprocessing data sets for watershed hydrologic modeling and post processing simulation results. However, model inputs and outputs must be transferred between the model and the GIS. These transfers can be greatly simplified by incorporating the model itself into the GIS environment. To this end, a simple hydrologic model, which incorporates the curve number method of rainfall‐runoff partitioning, the ground‐water base‐flow routine, and the Muskingum flow routing procedure, was implemented on the GIS. The model interfaces directly with stream network, flow direction, and watershed boundary data generated using standard GIS terrain analysis tools; and while the model is running, various data layers may be viewed at each time step using the full display capabilities. The terrain analysis tools were first used to delineate the drainage basins and stream networks for the Susquehanna River. Then the model was used to simulate the hydrologic response of the Upper West Branch of the Susquehanna to two different storms. The simulated streamflow hydrographs compare well with the observed hydrographs at the basin outlet.     

STORM CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTIVE-SCALE PRECIPITATION1

A classification scheme for convective precipitation, having applications in both analysis and modeling of meteorological and hydrological events, is presented. The method is based upon observations of rainfall at the ground, radar scans of storm events, and visible and infrared satellite imagery of larger storm systems. Empirical and theoretical frequency distributions are derived for total storm rainfall, rainfall duration and time between storms for each of the convective categories. This stratification is directly applicable to the experimental design and evaluation of weather modification projects and may be useful for the development and interpretation of meteorological and hydrological models. When atmospheric conditions limit storm development to cells, rainfall was seldom observed. Small clusters also produce small amounts of rainfall but have a longer lifetime than cells and are likely candidates for cloud seeding attempts to encourage their growth to large clusters. Large and nested clusters usually produce large amounts of natural precipitation. A few large storms account for most of a season's rainfall.     

Identifying hydrologically sensitive areas: bridging the gap between science and application

Researchers have noted that current water quality protection strategies, like nutrient management plans, lack a sound hydrological underpinning for pollutant transport processes. This is especially true for areas like the northeastern U.S. where copious research has shown that variable source area hydrology largely governs runoff generation. The goal of this study was to develop a scientifically justified method to identify the locations that generate overland flow. Furthermore, this methodology must be computationally simple enough that it can be utilized or incorporated into nutrient management plans and other established water quality tools. We specifically tested the reliability of the 'distance from a stream,'D(s), and the 'topographic index,'lambda, to predict areas with a high propensity for generating overland flow, i.e. hydrologically sensitive areas (HSA). HSAs were defined by their probability of generating runoff, P(sat), based on 30 year simulations using a physically based hydrological model. Using GIS, each location's P(sat) was correlated with D(s) and lambda. We used three Delaware Co., NY watersheds in the New York City watershed system with areas varying in size from 1.6 to 37 km2 and with forested and agricultural land uses. The topographic index gave stronger, more regionally consistent correlations with P(sat) than did D(s). Equations correlating lambda and P(sat) for each month are presented and can be used to estimate hydrological sensitivity in the region surrounding our study watersheds, i.e. in Delaware Co. This work is currently being incorporated into an Internet Mapping System to facilitate user-friendly, on-line identification of HSAs.     

HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERIZATION OF WATERSHEDS FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous time, distributed parameter hydrologic models like SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has opened several opportunities to improve watershed modeling accuracy. However, it has also placed a heavy burden on users with respect to the amount of work involved in parameterizing the watershed in general and in adequately representing the spatial variability of the watershed in particular. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have alleviated some of the difficulties associated with managing spatial data. However, the user must still choose among various parameterization approaches that are available within the model. This paper describes the important parameterization issues involved when modeling watershed hydrology for runoff prediction using SWAT with emphasis on how to improve model performance without resorting to tedious and arbitrary parameter by parameter calibration. Synthetic and actual watersheds in Indiana and Mississippi were used to illustrate the sensitivity of runoff prediction to spatial variability, watershed decomposition, and spatial and temporal adjustment of curve numbers and return flow contribution. SWAT was also used to predict stream runoff from actual watersheds in Indiana that have extensive subsurface drainage. The results of this study provide useful information for improving SWAT performance in terms of stream runoff prediction in a manner that is particularly useful for modeling ungaged watersheds wherein observed data for calibration is not available.     

Regional scale flood modeling using NEXRAD rainfall, GIS, and HEC-HMS/RAS: a case study for the San Antonio River Basin Summer 2002 storm event

This paper develops a framework for regional scale flood modeling that integrates NEXRAD Level III rainfall, GIS, and a hydrological model (HEC-HMS/RAS). The San Antonio River Basin (about 4000 square miles, 10,000 km2) in Central Texas, USA, is the domain of the study because it is a region subject to frequent occurrences of severe flash flooding. A major flood in the summer of 2002 is chosen as a case to examine the modeling framework. The model consists of a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) that converts precipitation excess to overland flow and channel runoff, as well as a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) that models unsteady state flow through the river channel network based on the HEC-HMS-derived hydrographs. HEC-HMS is run on a 4 x 4 km grid in the domain, a resolution consistent with the resolution of NEXRAD rainfall taken from the local river authority. Watershed parameters are calibrated manually to produce a good simulation of discharge at 12 subbasins. With the calibrated discharge, HEC-RAS is capable of producing floodplain polygons that are comparable to the satellite imagery. The modeling framework presented in this study incorporates a portion of the recently developed GIS tool named Map to Map that has been created on a local scale and extends it to a regional scale. The results of this research will benefit future modeling efforts by providing a tool for hydrological forecasts of flooding on a regional scale. While designed for the San Antonio River Basin, this regional scale model may be used as a prototype for model applications in other areas of the country.     

Applications of Turbidity Monitoring to Forest Management in California

Many California streams have been adversely affected by sedimentation caused by historic and current land uses, including timber harvesting. The impacts of timber harvesting and logging transportation systems on erosion and sediment delivery can be directly measured, modeled, or inferred from water quality measurements. California regulatory agencies, researchers, and land owners have adopted turbidity monitoring to determine effects of forest management practices on suspended sediment loads and water quality at watershed, project, and site scales. Watershed-scale trends in sediment discharge and responses to current forest practices may be estimated from data collected at automated sampling stations that measure turbidity, stream flow, suspended sediment concentrations, and other water quality parameters. Future results from these studies will provide a basis for assessing the effectiveness of modern forest practice regulations in protecting water quality. At the project scale, manual sampling of water column turbidity during high stream flow events within and downstream from active timber harvest plans can identify emerging sediment sources. Remedial actions can then be taken by managers to prevent or mitigate water quality impacts. At the site scale, manual turbidity sampling during storms or high stream flow events at sites located upstream and downstream from new, upgraded, or decommissioned stream crossings has proven to be a valuable way to determine whether measures taken to prevent post-construction erosion and sediment production are effective. Turbidity monitoring at the project and site scales is therefore an important tool for adaptive management. Uncertainty regarding the effects of current forest practices must be resolved through watershed-scale experiments. In the short term, this uncertainty will stimulate increased use of project and site-scale monitoring.     

A SCALE‐INVARIANT GAUSS‐MARKOV MODEL FOR DESIGN STORM HYETOGRAPHS1

Abstract. Hyetographs are essential to many hydrological designs. Many studies have shown that hyetographs are specific to storm types and durations. Recent work presented evidence that dimensionless hyetographs are scale invariant. We show that the simple scaling property of rainfall guarantees that the normalized rainfall rates of different storm durations are identically distributed and propose a nonstationary Gauss‐Markov model based on the annual maximum events that arise from the dominant storm type. We derive the unique estimators for the parameters of the Gauss‐Markov model under two constraints that: (a) the typical peak rainfall rate is preserved, and (b) the most likely hyetograph is obtained. One attractive feature of this model is that it allows translating hyetographs between storms of different durations. Two examples illustrate our model.     

Spatial Calibration and Temporal Validation of Flow for Regional Scale Hydrologic Modeling1

Abstract: Physically based regional scale hydrologic modeling is gaining importance for planning and management of water resources. Calibration and validation of such regional scale model is necessary before applying it for scenario assessment. However, in most regional scale hydrologic modeling, flow validation is performed at the river basin outlet without accounting for spatial variations in hydrological parameters within the subunits. In this study, we calibrated the model to capture the spatial variations in runoff at subwatershed level to assure local water balance, and validated the streamflow at key gaging stations along the river to assure temporal variability. Ohio and Arkansas‐White‐Red River Basins of the United States were modeled using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the period from 1961 to 1990. R² values of average annual runoff at subwatersheds were 0.78 and 0.99 for the Ohio and Arkansas Basins. Observed and simulated annual and monthly streamflow from 1961 to 1990 is used for temporal validation at the gages. R² values estimated were greater than 0.6. In summary, spatially distributed calibration at subwatersheds and temporal validation at the stream gages accounted for the spatial and temporal hydrological patterns reasonably well in the two river basins. This study highlights the importance of spatially distributed calibration and validation in large river basins.     

Integrating contributing areas and indexing phosphorus loss from agricultural watersheds

Most states in the USA have adopted P Indexing to guide P-based management of agricultural fields by identifying the relative risk of P loss at farm and watershed scales. To a large extent, this risk is based on hydrologic principles that frequently occurring storms can initiate surface runoff from fields. Once initiated, this hydrological pathway has a high potential to transport P to the stream. In regions where hydrologically active areas of watersheds vary in time and space, surface runoff generation by "saturation excess" has been linked to distance from stream, with larger events resulting in larger contributing distances. Thus, storm-return period and P loss from a 39.5-ha mixed-land-use watershed in Pennsylvania was evaluated to relate return-period thresholds and distances contributing P to streams. Of 248 storm flows between 1997 and 2006, 93% had a return period of 1 yr, contributing 47% of total P (TP) export, while the largest two storms (10-yr return period) accounted for 23% of TP export. Contributing distance thresholds for the watershed were determined (50-150 m) for a range of storm-return periods (1-10 yr) from hydrograph analysis. By modifying storm-return period thresholds in the P Index and thereby contributing distance, it is possible to account for greater risk of P loss during large storms. For instance, increasing return period threshold from 1 (current P indices) to 5 yr, which accounted for 67% of TP export, increased the P-management restricted area from 20 to 58% of the watershed. An increase in impacted area relative to a decreased risk of P loss creates a management-policy dilemma that cannot be ignored.     

Impacts of land cover on stream hydrology in the West Georgia Piedmont, USA

The southeastern United States is experiencing rapid urban development. Consequently, Georgia's streams are experiencing hydrologic alterations from extensive development and from other land use activities such as livestock grazing and silviculture. A study was performed to assess stream hydrology within 18 watersheds ranging from 500 to 2500 ha. Study streams were first, second, or third order and hydrology was continuously monitored from 29 July 2003 to 23 September 2004 using InSitu pressure transducers. Rating curves between stream stage (i.e., water depth) and discharge were developed for each stream by correlating biweekly discharge measurements and stage data. Dependent variables were calculated from discharge data and placed into 4 categories: flow frequency (i.e., the number of times a predetermined discharge threshold is exceeded), flow magnitude (i.e., maximum and minimum flows), flow duration (i.e., the amount of time discharge was above or below a predetermined threshold), and flow predictability and flashiness. Fine resolution data (i.e., 15-min interval) were also compared to daily discharge data to determine if resolution affected how streams were classified hydrologically. Urban watersheds experienced flashy discharges during storm events, whereas pastoral and forested watersheds showed less flashy hydrographs. Also, in comparison to all other flow variables, flow frequency measures were most strongly correlated to land cover. Furthermore, the stream hydrology was explained similarly with both the 15-min and daily data resolutions.     

A spatially explicit framework for quantifying downstream hydrologic conditions

Continued improvements in spatial datasets and hydrological modeling algorithms within Geographic Information Systems (GISs) have enhanced opportunities for watershed analysis. With more detailed hydrology layers and watershed delineation techniques, we can now better represent and model landscape to water quality relationships. Two challenges in modeling these relationships are selecting the appropriate spatial scale of watersheds for the receiving stream segment, and handling the network or pass-through issues of connected watersheds. This paper addresses these two important issues for enhancing cumulative watershed capabilities in GIS. Our modeling framework focuses on the delineation of stream-segment-level watershed boundaries for 1:24 000 scale hydrology, in combination with a topological network model. The result is a spatially explicit, vector-based, spatially cumulative watershed modeling framework for quantifying watershed conditions to aid in restoration. We demonstrate the new insights available from this modeling framework in a cumulative mining index for the management of aquatic resources in a West Virginia watershed.     

A spatial-statistical approach for modeling the effect of non-point source pollution on different water quality parameters in the Velhas river watershed--Brazil

In this article, a methodology for evaluating the effect of land use/land cover on the quality of nearby stream water in a semiarid environment is described and tested on a large watershed in Southeastern Brazil. The approach aims at identifying the width of the riparian area having the strongest effect on different water quality parameters. The land use/land cover data were generated from remotely sensed data while water quality point data were supplied by a government agency. Testing was conducted for both the rainy and dry seasons in an effort to understand the direct effect of surface runoff. The approach combines cartographic modelling using a geographical information system (GIS) and statistics to establish the strength of the relationship between water quality, land use and the distance from the stream. Results suggest a strong relationship between land use/land cover and turbidity, nitrogen and fecal coliforms. They also suggest that each of these parameters has a unique behavior when distance from the stream is considered. Finally, although it was expected that the models would apply better during the wet season, some parameters had the opposite behavior and displayed a better fit during the dry season.     

Modeling Urban Growth Effects on Surface Runoff with the Integration of Remote Sensing and GIS

A methodology is developed to relate urban growth studies to distributed hydrological modeling using an integrated approach of remote sensing and GIS. This linkage is possible because both studies share land-use and land-cover data. Landsat Thematic Mapper data are utilized to detect urban land-cover changes. GIS analyses are then conducted to examine the changing spatial patterns of urban growth. The integration of remote sensing and GIS is applied to automate the estimation of surface runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service model. Impacts of urban growth on surface runoff and the rainfall–runoff relationship are examined by linking the two modeling results with spatial analysis techniques. This methodology is applied to the Zhujiang Delta of southern China, where dramatic urban growth has occurred over the past two decades, and the rampant urban growth has created severe problems in water resources management. The results revealed a notably uneven spatial pattern of urban growth and an increase of 8.10 mm in annual runoff depth during the 1989–1997 period. An area that experienced more urban growth had a greater potential for increasing annual surface runoff. Highly urbanized areas were more prone to flooding. Urbanization lowered potential maximum storage, and thus increased runoff coefficient values.     

WATERSHED CONFIGURATION AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM PARAMETERIZATION FOR SPUR MODEL HYDROLOGIC SIMULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: A grid cell geographic information system (GIS) is used to parameterize SPUR, a quasi-physically based surface runoff model in which a watershed is configured as a set of stream segments and contributing areas. GIS analysis techniques produce various watershed configurations by progressive simplification of a stream network delineated from digital elevation models (DEM). We used three watershed configurations: ≥ 2nd, ≥ 4th, and ≥ 13th Shreve order networks, where the watershed contains 28, 15, and 1 channel segments with 66, 37, and 3 contributing areas, respectively. Watershed configuration controls simulated daily and monthly sums of runoff volumes. For the climatic and topographic setting in southeastern Arizona the ≥ 4th order configuration of the stream network and contributing areas produces results that are typically as good as the ≥ 2nd order network. However both are consistently better than the ≥ 13th order configuration. Due to the degree of parameterization in SPUR, model simulations cannot be significantly improved by increasing watershed configuration beyond the ≥ 4th order network. However, a range of Soil Conservation Service curve numbers derived from rainfall/runoff data can affect model simulations. Higher curve numbers yield better results for the ≥ 2nd order network while lower curve numbers yield better results for the ≥ 4th order network.