供给侧改革驱动资源型城市转型的机制分析

供给侧结构性改革旨在调整经济结构,促进产业优化重组,实现要素资源的最优配置,消除过剩产能,提高有效供给,是经济新常态下维持经济中高速发展的重要手段。目前,我国资源型城市转型不仅面临着传统"城市病"的威胁,还面临着"资源诅咒"的困境,制度保障不足、产业刚性严重、要素创新低下已成为资源型城市转型的重大瓶颈。资源型城市迫切需要提升供给质量,提高全要素生产率,实现供给侧结构性改革以破解城市转型难题。供给侧结构性改革从全面提升供给质量的角度,为资源型城市转型提供新思路。文章首先结合宏观、中观、微观的整体分析思路,从制度供给、产业供给和要素供给三个层面分析了供给侧改革对资源型城市转型的驱动效用,有助于完善制度保障体系、产业结构体系和要素创新体系。其次,界定阐释了供给侧结构性改革驱动资源型城市转型的因子,主要包括:行政制度、经济制度、文化制度、对外开放、社会建设制度等5个制度供给因子;产业结构、产业发展水平、产业发展环境、区域产业差异等4个产业供给因子;人力资源水平、科技创新、资源供给、生态环境、资金供给等5个要素供给因子。最后,以制度改革为保障,要素创新为手段,产业转型为核心,构建了供给侧结构性改革驱动资源型城市转型的综合机制,调控不同生命周期下不同层面影响因子的协同主导作用,实现制度、产业、要素三方供给要素的良性互动,促进资源型城市经济、社会、城市三位一体的转型,为顺利实现资源型城市转型提供理论参考。     

资源型城市的可持续发展路径——以太原市创建国家可持续发展议程示范区为例

推进2030可持续发展议程,实现可持续发展目标(SDGs)已经成为全球共识,城市是实现可持续发展的重要空间载体。中国城市中有超过200个资源型城市,这些城市的产业、能源结构单一,随着城市资源的日渐枯竭,普遍面临着产业转型难,接续替代产业发展滞后、生态环境破坏严重等问题,面临着实现可持续发展的多重挑战。文章构建了综合评估模型,通过厘清城市"驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应"系统之间多元互动反馈关系,构建可持续发展综合能力评价指标体系,基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型构建了资源型城市可持续发展综合评估模型,并以太原市国家可持续发展议程创新示范区为案例进行研究。研究结论表明,通过发展理念、关键技术、政策体制、服务体系等方面的创新,可驱动资源型城市经济、社会与环境的全面转型。同时提出了"增长、生态、低碳、宜居、幸福"的五维太原市可持续发展路径。     

资源型城市绿色转型内涵的理论探讨

科学发展观要求资源型城市探索出一条可持续发展的新路,实现绿色转型.本文构建了绿色转型三维结构模型,在比较分析一般经济转型与绿色转型差异的基础上,对资源型城市绿色转型内涵进行了初步探讨.分析表明:绿色转型在经济、社会、资源、环境、企业、产业、政府七方面与一般经济转型存在显著不同.相较而言,资源型城市绿色转型强调绿色经济的实现而非仅为避免"矿竭城衰";强调产业内劳动力质量的挖掘提升而非产业间劳动力数量的转移安置;强调资源的高效利用而非脱资源化发展;强调生产过程对环境的保护而非生产过后对污染的治理;绿色转型注重企业绿色运营制度和绿色创新体系的构建;注重资源型产业的绿色改造及产业体系整体的绿色重构;注重转型过程中政府角色的转换及其自身的绿色约束和监管.总之,绿色转型明确了资源型城市转型的目标及方向,是更加切合实际的先进转型模式,值得我国资源型城市参考并推广.     

有色金属资源城市经济转型发展的思考

文章通过对有色金属产业特点的分析，及对当前资源型城市经济转型的回顾，认为有色金属资源型实现主导产业由依赖矿产资源的采掘和治炼业向后续加工产业的转变，是有色金属资源型城市转型的战略选择，发展有色金属新材料与深加工产业是逐步摆脱资源有限性对经济发展制约的有效途径，文章还阐述了发展有色金属新材料与深加工产业应处理几个问题：①要争取国家政策的支持；②要一手抓有色金属新材料，一手抓有色金属产品的深加工；③要统筹兼顾有色金属新材料与深加工产业和其它接统产业的发展；④要不断强化产品质量意识和品牌效应；⑤要处理好“人”的问题。     

上海海洋经济发展战略

在沿海各国和地区都高度重视发展海洋经济的背景下,研究上海海洋经济发展战略,对进一步推进上海海洋经济发展,建设“海洋强市”具有重要的意义。开发海洋、发展海洋经济是提升上海国际竞争力,促进社会经济可持续发展,更好地服务于长江三角洲、长江流域乃至全国以及保障城市、国家安全的战略需要。目前,上海海洋经济的发展面临着一系列问题、困难和瓶颈制约,主要表现为：海洋产业结构有待优化提升;海陆互动机制有待进一步完善;河口岛屿资源开发利用程度严重不足;海洋生态环境保护与可持续发展形势依然严峻;海洋科技自主创新能力不强,科技资源亟需开发与整合。因此,从转变思想,树立海洋兴市的战略意识;整体规划,重点布局;产业升级,结构优化;海洋经济发展重在创新;大力发展岛屿经济;注重海洋生态保护与可持续发展7方面,提出了上海发展海洋经济的战略和重点。     

中国资源型城市CO_2排放比较研究

城市,特别是资源型城市,作为践行国家应对气候变化战略行动的重要主体,在绿色发展转型以及生态文明建设进程中正面临诸多现实挑战。资源型城市能否实现低碳发展转型,关乎我国在国际社会上承诺的中长期碳减排目标能否最终实现。为此,本研究基于中国高空间分辨率网格数据(CHRED),综合运用DPSIR(驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应)、分类比较研究和情景分析等方法,对我国126个资源型城市的CO_2排放特征进行了系统分析,揭示了这些城市在能源结构和产业结构方面面临的诸多挑战,分析了这些城市未来碳排放趋势和碳减排潜力。研究结果显示:在正常达峰情景下,2030年126个资源型城市将以72.65亿t的CO_2排放量达峰,约占当年全国CO_2排放总量的60%;在提前达峰情景下,资源型城市将在2025年以53.78亿t的CO_2排放量达峰,约占当年全国CO_2排放总量的45%左右。最后,针对我国资源型城市的绿色低碳发展转型以及碳排放达峰管理提出几点建议:一是加强能源统计工作,促进资源型城市碳排放信息化管理平台建设;二是加强体制机制建设,健全资源型城市绿色低碳转型制度体系;三是改善以煤炭等化石燃料为主导的能源消费结构,提高清洁燃料利用的比重;四是加快绿色低碳技术发展,推动产业优化升级和碳排放强度明显下降。     

要素错配:解开资源型城市转型困境之谜北大核心CSCDCSSCI

促进资源型城市产业转型升级,是解决区域之间经济发展差异扩大及生态资源破坏严重的困境,实现区域协调发展战略的重要条件。该研究从要素错配的新视角,探讨了资源型城市的经济转型问题。理论上,构建了描述资源型城市要素投入的增长模型,考察了要素错配对城市产出效率、环境效率及能源效率的影响机制。实证方面,基于2005—2018年面板数据,利用改进后的方向距离函数(DDF),分别从劳动、资本、能源投入、期望产出和非期望产出五个维度对全国114个资源型城市的转型效率加以测算,进而检验了要素错配对资源型城市转型的确切影响。结果表明,无论是配置过度还是配置不足,要素错配对资源型城市的经济转型效率均存在明显的抑制作用,且劳动错配的抑制作用尤为明显;在处理内生性问题、更换分析样本、替换被解释变量和改变回归方法后,研究结论依然具有较强的稳健性。在产出增长、能源消耗和环境友好三个方向上将转型效率进一步分解,研究发现各要素错配均会阻碍能源效率和环境效率的提升,但是不同于劳动错配和能源错配,资本错配对产出效率的负面影响并不显著。按资源型城市所处的不同地理区域进行分类,研究发现要素错配对转型效率的影响会因地理区域不同而产生明显差异。该研究根据资源型城市转型中的问题,从国家、城市和产业三个层面提出政策建议,并强调要注重提高劳动要素的配置效率。该研究不仅能够为解释资源型城市面临的转型困境提供一个新思路,而且为新时期推动资源型城市高质量发展的战略制定和政策调整提供有益参考。     

基于双标分类与要素演化的油气资源城市“资源诅咒”情景模拟

随着区域转型创新战略的持续推进,如何实现资源型城市可持续发展的重要性日益凸显。油气资源城市是中国资源型城市的重要组成部分,既承载了资源型城市转型创新重要任务,又面临资源枯竭、转型停滞等问题,需要用"进化"的思想做指引,秉持发展与稳定的统一,才能逐步破除城市发展已存在的"诅咒"陷阱,真正实现城市可持续发展。研究主要运用情景分析方法,通过对中国油气资源城市特征分类分析,明确油气资源城市的发展环境与趋势,基于要素演化分类构建情景分析的计量回归模型,从高情景、标准情景和低情景出发,分析物质资本投资、人力资本水平、技术创新投入、制造业发展等中介要素演化对城市"资源诅咒"的影响。结果显示:①油气资源型城市所存在的"资源诅咒"并非普适性现象,仅存在于一高一低和一低一高型城市。②在上述两类城市中,通过提升物质资本投资和技术创新投入,调整制造业产业结构,增加居民储蓄等方式,可以有效抑制"资源诅咒"现象,为油气资源型城市可持续发展的实现创造条件。③关于人力资本水平这一要素,研究发现具有"资源诅咒"现象的两类城市均存在人力资本错配,从而可能致使资源的福音演变为资源的诅咒。通过分析提出破解中国油气资源城市"资源诅咒"、实现可持续发展的建议:一是通过完善利益分配机制和人才培育机制,不断提升城市科技创新能力,发挥科技创新引领作用;二是合理配置资源,优化产业结构,践行绿色发展理念,打破油气资源产业的"挤出效应"。     

循环经济与江苏产业结构调整

为寻求一种能实现环境保护与经济发展相互促进的新途径,在分析循环经济的内涵及其与产业结构变动关系的基础上,对江苏产业结构进行了较深层次的分析,结果表明：江苏产业结构中资源消耗型和环境污染型行业仍占有较大比重。按照循环经济的原理,江苏产业结构调整的目标是：在“稳定一产,优化二产,壮大三产”的同时,各产业内部要优先发展资源节约型、环境友好型和废物利用型行业。工业主要是实现生态化转型,对不同行业分别给予鼓励、控制或限制;农业主要是投入品减量化、废弃物资源化和产业纵横链接化;服务业主要是围绕经济、社会和环境和谐发展的目标推进产业的环保化。     

科学发展观视角下动力衰减型资源城市转型战略思考

以科学发展观为视角对动力衰减型资源型城市进行了研究.长期以来,国内外政府、专家学者对资源桔竭型的城市关注较多,但对资源尚未枯竭、主导产业对城市拉动作用已呈衰退之势的动力衰减型城市关注不够.动力衰减型资源城市既具有资源型城市的共同特征,又与资源枯竭型城市有着明显区别,虽然此时资源型产业对城市的贡献已呈衰退之势,但其主导地位仍将持续一段时间,城市自身尚有能力支付经济转型成本.为避免资源枯竭后被迫转型的高昂成本.政府必须主动启动此类城市转型,并依据科学发展观及早制定经济全面转型战略.邯郸市是动力衰减型城市的一个典型代表.本文在对资源型城市转型时机与动力衰减型城市深入研究的基础上,以邯郸为案例城市进行了实证研究,并提出其战略转型的政策思考.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Comparative analysis of the effect of predator odor on morphological and physiological parameters of adult male Campbell hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus campbelli</Emphasis>) and dwarf hamsters (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phodopus sungorus</Emphasis>)

The effect of long-term exposure to natural excretions of the European polecat on the morphological parameters and hormonal status of adult male Campbell hamsters (Phodopus campbelli) and dwarf hamsters (Ph. sungorus) was studied. Exposure to volatile components of natural excreta of a potential predator did not have any significant effect on hamsters. The combined influence of volatile and nonvolatile components of the polecat’s excretions caused physiological stress in Ph. campbelli, while in Ph. sungorus, on the contrary, an increase in thymus weight and the plasma testosterone level was recorded.     

How Do Groups Solve Local Commons Dilemmas? Lessons from Experimental Economics in the Field

The use of experimental settings to observe human behaviour in a controlled environment of incentives, rules and institutions, has been widely used by the behavioural sciences for sometime now, particularly by psychology and economics. In most cases the subjects are college students recruited for one to two hour decision making exercises in which, depending on their choices, they earn cash averaging US$ 20. In such exercises players face a set of feasible actions, rules and incentives (payoffs) involving different forms of social exchange with other people, and that in most cases involve some kind of externalities with incomplete contracts, such as in the case of common-pool resources situations. Depending on the ecological and institutional settings, the resource users face a set of feasible levels of extraction, a set of rules regarding the control or monitoring of individual use, and sometimes ways of imposing material or non-material costs or rewards to those breaking or following the rules. We brought the experimental lab to the field and invited about two hundred users of natural resources in three Colombian rural villages to participate in such decision making exercises and through these and other research instruments we learned about the ways they solve - or fail to - tragedies of the commons with different social institutions. Further, bringing the lab to the field allowed us to explore some of the limitations of existing models about human behaviour and its consequences for designing policies for conserving ecosystems and improving social welfare.     

Quantifying the transfer of radionuclides to food products from domestic farm animals

Databases have been compiled to derive parameter values relevant to the transfer of radionuclides from feedstuffs to domestic animal products to provide a revision to the IAEA Handbook on transfer parameters TRS 364. Significant new data inputs have been incorporated into the databases from an extensive review of Russian language information and inclusion of data published since the early 1990s. Fractional gastrointestinal absorption in adult ruminants presented in the revised handbook are generally similar to those recommended for adult humans by the ICRP. Transfer coefficient values are presented in the handbook for a range of radionuclides to farm animal products. For most animal products, transfer coefficient values for elements additional to those in TRS 364 are provided although many data gaps remain. Transfer coefficients generally vary between species with larger species having lower values than smaller species. It has been suggested that the difference is partly due to the inclusion of dietary dry matter intake in the estimation of transfer coefficient and that whilst dietary intake increases with size nutrient concentrations do not. An alternative approach to quantifying transfer by using concentration ratios (CR), which do not consider dietary intake, has been evaluated. CR values compiled for the handbook vary considerably less between species than transfer coefficient values. The advantage of the CR approach is that values derived for one species could be applied to species for which there are no data. However, transfer coefficients will continue to be used as few studies currently report CR values or give data from which they can be estimated.     

A Dynamic model of Cs accumulation by fish of different age classes

A dynamic model of radionuclide accumulation in fish is developed. In the model, the fish population is represented by a set of discrete age classes. Each age class is characterized by a specific growth rate, diet and activity of metabolic processes. The model describes all known types of size effect in the contamination of fish with radiocaesium. The detailed dynamics of ¹³⁷Cs accumulation by fish are demonstrated using the results of the model's application to ichtiofauna in a water body which has a high level of contamination with radiocaesium — namely, the cooling pond of the Chernobyl NPP.     

Greenwashed sports and environmental activism: Formula 1 and FIFA†

ABSTRACT

Formula 1 motor sport and the Men's World Cup of association football, two major sporting events on our calendars, are indirectly and directly responsible for environmental despoliation. They serve as advertisements for heavy industry, are designed for elite as much as mass consumption, and provide sponsors with dubious social licenses to operate. This occurs through the very mechanisms of the events themselves (engines in Formula 1, tourism in the World Cup) as well as their promotional externalities. I look at greenwashing claims made about these two sporting events and examine counter-discourses, then investigate economic and ecological citizenship. I suggest that a progressive agenda can be forwarded if Greenpeace, which runs campaigns related to these sports, works with its fellow elites, in the case of Formula 1, and with fans in the case of football. Doing so may be more effective than business-as-usual direct action.     

江苏海洋开发的资源环境条件评述

江苏海洋的区位优越，海域广阔，环境条件总体有利，海洋资源种类多，数量大，具有综合开发功能，而且资源和环境的区域组合良好，有利于海洋产业的集约经营和协调发展，但也存在不少限制因素，如深水区离岸较远，海底矿产勘探程度低，自然灾害较多等。应根据实际情况确定本省海洋的开发战略。