A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management.     

Climate change decision-support and the tolerable windows approach

The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) to Integrated Assessments (IA) of global warming is based on external normative specifications of tolerable sets of climate impacts as well as proposed emission quotas and policy instruments for implementation. In a subsequent step, the complete set of admissible climate protection strategies which are compatible with these normative inputs is determined by scientific analysis. In doing so, minimum requirements concerning global and national greenhouse gas emission paths can be determined. In this paper we present the basic methodological elements of TWA, discuss its relation to more conventional approaches to IA like cost–benefit analyses, and present some preliminary results obtained by a reduced-form climate model.     

Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.     

The social impact assessment model and the planning process

Social impact assessment developed along with environmental impact assessment during the early 1970s as a methodological tool with which to better understand the consequences of environmental alteration and as an input to environmental impact statements. The idea was that if adverse social, economic, and physical effects of development were known in advance, they could either be mediated or eliminated.For the most part, the assessment of biological and economic impacts has become a required input into every stage in the planning process. However, social changes are not always arrayed alongside economic, biological, and landuse changes in the matrix that leads to the final decision.The major difficulty in the application of SIA process has been in identifying and measuring the social impacts that occur with each project. Even if important social impacts were identified, few procedures have been developed for measuring their significance. When either social costs or benefits to local communities are arrayed against regional and national economic goals, social concerns generally finish a distant second. Social science research must establish that the effects on human populations alone are significant enough to alter the outcome of the decision process.     

Rethinking human health impact assessment

Most EIA programs around the world require the consideration of human health impacts. Yet relatively few EIA documents adequately address those impacts. This article examines how, why, and to what extent health impacts are analyzed in environmental impact assessments in the U.S. An empirical study of 42 environmental impact statements found that more than half contained no mention of health impacts. In the others, health impacts were analyzed narrowly, if at all, using risk assessment to quantify the carcinogenic potential of a single substance over a single generation. This analytic focus overlooks other significant morbidity and mortality risks, cumulative and intergenerational effects, and broader determinants of health. This article investigates these problems and provides recommendations to improve human health impact assessment, using strategic environmental assessment, qualitative health data, health outcomes in addition to cancer, and a precautionary approach to risk.     

Stakeholder participation in health impact assessment: A multicultural approach

The literature on impact assessment (HIA) registers the importance of stakeholder participation in the assessment process, but still lacks a model for engaging stakeholders of diverse ethnic, professional and sectorial backgrounds. This paper suggests that the multicultural approach can contribute to HIA through a revision of the generic 5-step HIA model, and its implementation in a metropolitan plan in Southern Israel. The health issue scoped by the stakeholders in the HIA is related to land uses in the vicinity of the national hazardous industry and hazardous waste site. The stakeholders were representatives of the diverse populations at stake, including rural Bedouins and Jewish city dwellers, as well as representatives from the public sector, private sector, non-governmental organizations and academia. The case study revealed that a multicultural stakeholder participation process helps to uncover health issues known to the community which were not addressed in the original plan, and provides local knowledge regarding health conditions that is especially valuable when scientific data is uncertain or absent. It enables diverse stakeholders to prioritize the health issues that will be assessed. The case study also reveals ways in which the model needs revisions and improvements such as in recruitment of diverse participants. This paper presents a multicultural model of HIA and discusses some of the challenges that are faced when HIA is implemented in the context of current decision-making culture.     

System dynamic simulation: A new method in social impact assessment (SIA)

Many complex social questions are difficult to address adequately with conventional methods and techniques, due to the complicated dynamics, and hard to quantify social processes. Despite these difficulties researchers and practitioners have attempted to use conventional methods not only in evaluative modes but also in predictive modes to inform decision making. The effectiveness of SIAs would be increased if they were used to support the project design processes. This requires deliberate use of lessons from retrospective assessments to inform predictive assessments. Social simulations may be a useful tool for developing a predictive SIA method. There have been limited attempts to develop computer simulations that allow social impacts to be explored and understood before implementing development projects. In light of this argument, this paper aims to introduce system dynamic (SD) simulation as a new predictive SIA method in large development projects. We propose the potential value of the SD approach to simulate social impacts of development projects. We use data from the SIA of Gareh-Bygone floodwater spreading project to illustrate the potential of SD simulation in SIA. It was concluded that in comparison to traditional SIA methods SD simulation can integrate quantitative and qualitative inputs from different sources and methods and provides a more effective and dynamic assessment of social impacts for development projects. We recommend future research to investigate the full potential of SD in SIA in comparing different situations and scenarios.     

A System to Monitor Climate Change with Epilithic Lichens

The issue of biological monitoring of the local consequences of anticipated global climate change is considered for the Central Negev Highlands, Israel. Epilithic lichens are suggested as biological monitors. The proposed methodology of such monitoring consists of a sampling scheme, including lichen measurement along transects on flat calcareous rocks, and construction of a trend detection index (TDI). TDI is a sum of lichen species cover with coefficients chosen so as to ensure maximum ability to detect global climate trends. Coefficients have been estimated in a study of lichens along an altitudinal gradient from 500 to 1000 m a.s.l. The gradient study demonstrated that the TDI index is performed better than other integrated indices. Recommendations on this system to monitor climate change with epilthic lichens are given. Measuring, for instance, a hundred transects in fifty plots (two transet per plot scheme) allows one to detect a climate-driven change in the epilithic lichen community corresponding to a 0.8 °C shift in annual mean temperature. Such resolution appears sufficient in view of global warming of 2.5 °C considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a realistic prediction for the end of the next century.     

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of wastewater management systems: Life cycle approach

The septic-tank and tanker (STT) system is a traditional wastewater management practice commonly used in many developing countries. The system is based on septic tanks that are pumped out by sewage tankers on a regular basis. Although the STT system is gradually being replaced by conventional gravity sewers (CGS), the high capital cost of this shift remains a major obstacle. This research aims to investigate the economic feasibility and environmental footprint of an alternative wastewater management system compared to existing sanitation systems. The study examines the small-bore sewers (SBS) system which utilizes the existing septic tanks to separate solids from gravity-conveyed effluent. A comparative assessment of the three systems (STT, CGS, and SBS) along with their treatment facilities was conducted on a residential area in the United Arab Emirates. Local design criteria of the SBS system were proposed based on current CGS guidelines and international SBS standards. A cost-integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) was carried out in order to evaluate the environmental and economic aspects of the three management strategies. The total present value of the SBS strategy was found to be significantly higher than those of STT and CGS, respectively. Moreover, a 67% smaller treatment plant was sufficient to serve the SBS effluent. The LCA results revealed that the CGS strategy imparted the highest damage to the environment in all impact categories considered including global warming potential, whereas, the STT system produced a higher impact than SBS in six out of the eleven tested impact categories. Overall, while the STT strategy was the least financially feasible, the CGS had the largest environmental footprint. The eco-efficiency assessment revealed that the SBS strategy was the most favored among the examined strategies.     

Syndromes of Global Change: a qualitative modelling approach to assist global environmental management

A novel transdisciplinary approach to investigate Global Change (GC) is presented. The approach rests on the decomposition of the intrigue dynamics of GC into patterns of civilization–nature interactions (syndromes) by an iterative scientific process of observations, data and system theoretical analyses, and modelling attempts. We illustrate the approach by a detailed analysis of the Sahel Syndrome, which describes the rural poverty driven overuse of natural resources. The investigation is performed by (i) identifying relevant symptoms and interlinkages which are characteristics for this pattern, and (ii) a qualitative model representing the internal dynamics of the essential flywheel. The geographical patchwork of the regions affected by the syndrome which is obtained by global data analysis, proves the high global relevance of this pattern. The qualitative model is employed for an evaluation of basic policy strategies debated in the context of rural poverty driven environmental degradation. It turns out that a mixed policy of combating poverty and introducing soil preserving agricultural techniques and practices is most promising to tackle the syndrome dynamics.     

一种基于可靠性理论的区域环境质量风险评价模型探讨

首先从理论上研究了用可靠性理论进行区域环境质量风险评价需要解决的几个基本问题,在此基础上,构建了环境污染故障树和区域环境质量风险评价的数学模型.这是一种以概率为基础的、新的区域环境质量风险评价模型,对于研究污染型工业系统的环境质量风险具有重要意义.     

Application of a risk assessment based approach to designing ambient air quality monitoring networks for evaluating non-cancer health impacts

An ambient air quality monitoring network has been establishedusing risk assessment techniques to evaluate adverse health effects from exposures to airborne contaminants. The risk assessment method was compared to traditional methods of establishing air quality monitoring networks: identifying maximumconcentration impacts or maximum total population. Results suggest that the health risk method best predicted the locationof adverse, non-carcinogenic respiratory illnesses during the evaluation period. Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient, r _s, values obtained using the risk assessment method werestatistically greater than the values obtained using theconcentration and population methods. The concentration methodwas the least accurate predictor of adverse effects.     

Digital archives,big data and image-based culturomics for social impact assessment: Opportunities and challenges

Social impact assessment (SIA) is well-established but uses conventional approaches that have become less effective in recent decades, particularly in relation to declining survey response rates and a lack of youth engagement. Images from digital archives and social media sources are poised to advance the research and practice of SIA by transcending text-based methods with insights into changing landscapes, and human engagement with them. This viewpoint describes progress, challenges and cautions toward the development of such tools (defined as culturomics), using hydroelectricity cases to illustrate potential approaches. These tools build on foundational work in a range of disciplines, including the humanities and computer science. We describe necessary advances in machine learning, image digitization, and data aggregation and visualization techniques, as well as ways to ensure that such tools are carefully tested, applied and interpreted. Challenges include the automation, acquisition and management of datasets, and using these tools appropriately and equitably. Critically, culturomics of any kind must not be used as a replacement for engagement with people, but as complementary to inclusive stakeholder engagement.     

The ecological impact assessment of a proposed road development (the Slovak approach)

The construction of roads is one of the most widespread forms of natural landscape modification. Over the last 20 years, dozens of road constructions have been assessed in Slovakia, which makes it possible to talk about methodological positives and negatives. A special feature of Slovakia is that many planned or renovated roads are located in protected areas or are in contact with them (including Natura 2000 sites). Therefore, it is important to understand the scope of the roads' ecological impacts and find ways for their appropriate evaluation and incorporation into the Environmental Impact Assessment process. For this reason, the Ecological Impact Assessment methodology can be used as a basis for our research, which consists of three stages. In the first stage (scoping), a buffer circumventing the proposed road is created to determine the area for impact prediction and evaluation. Subsequently, the landscape structure and baseline landscape conditions are discussed, a map of current landscape structure is created and the current ecological status of the affected area is calculated. In the second stage (the evaluation of ecological resources), important ecological parts of the landscape are delineated. This step is based on the importance of previous information and its vulnerability, and leads to the mapping of the road ecological impact zone. In the third stage (impact assessment), important ecological parts are spatially correlated with the proposed road construction. Finally, the significance of ecological impacts of the activity is evaluated by applying specific criteria (duration, reversibility, magnitude, size and road ecological impact zone significance). A scale is proposed for each criterion to evaluate the total significance of impacts. In this way, detailed significant ecological impacts can be found which will help lead to proposed correct mitigation measures and a post-project analysis.     

Climate Impact Response Functions for Terrestrial Ecosystems

We introduce climate impact response functions as a means for summarizing and visualizing the responses of climate-sensitive sectors to changes in fundamental drivers of global climate change. In an inverse application, they allow the translation of thresholds for climate change impacts (‘impact guard-rails’) into constraints for climate and atmospheric composition parameters (‘climate windows’). It thus becomes feasible to specify long-term objectives for climate protection with respect to the impacts of climate change instead of crude proxy variables, like the change in global mean temperature. We apply the method to assess impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, using the threat to protected areas as the central impact indicator. Future climate states are characterized by geographically and seasonally explicit climate change patterns for temperature, precipitation and cloud cover, and by their atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The patterns are based on the results of coupled general circulation models. We study the sensitivity of the impact indicators and the corresponding climate windows to the spatial coverage of the analysis and to different climate change projections. This enables us to identify the most sensitive biomes and regions, and to determine those factors which significantly influence the results of the impact assessment. Based on the analysis, we conclude that climate impact response functions are a valuable means for the representation of climate change impacts across a wide range of plausible futures. They are particularly useful in integrated assessment models of climate change based on optimizing or inverse approaches where the on-line simulation of climate impacts by sophisticated impact models is infeasible due to their high computational demand. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture

Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Environmental impact assessment: The work of the OECD

This report describes the work of an international group that is supported in part by the Dutch Ministry for Environment and is chaired by Frans Evers, the Ministry's Deputy Director-General for Environmental Protection.