Adaptation to What and Why?

Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century.Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.     

Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.     

Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world

Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These carrots are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a stick designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.     

An Analysis with the CERT Model of the FSU Market Power in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market

This paper aims to assess the consequences of the amendments made to the Kyoto Protocol during COP 7 in Marrakech. The major issue of hot air and CDM transaction costs is examined using the CERT model to show that primary supply regions, typically those with hot air availability, might control the emissions reduction permit supply market and maximise net export revenues of permit supply by withholding 40 to 60% of available hot air credits. The assumption that primary permit suppliers control permit price via a restriction of hot air supply to the market will inadvertently leave a portion of the market share open to non-Annex B CDM supply, despite potentially extreme variance in CDM transaction costs. A summary table of policy implications on the emissions reduction permit market is also included.     

Numerical integration of chemical ODE problems arising in air pollution models

The numerical treatment of a regional air pollution model (such models are, as a rule, described mathematically by systems of partial differential equations) leads to the solution of very large computational problems. The chemical submodel of an air pollution model is normally the most timeconsuming part of the computational work. The application of appropriate discretization and splitting procedures reduces the chemical submodel to a large number of relatively small ODE systems (one such system per gridpoint). In the process of searching for efficient numerical algorithms for the chemical submodels one can carry out experiments by using only one such ODE system in order to facilitate the work. This approach has been used in connection with a particular chemical scheme, the condensed CBM IV scheme, which is used in several large air pollution models. Six integration algorithms have been tested on a set of typical scenarios (consisting of different starting concentrations and/or of different values of the emissions). The advantages and the disadvantages of the algorithms tested are discussed. The final decision about the most efficient algorithm, among the algorithms tested, should be made after a second series of experiments. The coupling of the chemical process with the transport of air pollution (on, at least, a twodimensional domain) together with the application of highspeed computers has to be studied in the second series of experiments, which will be performed in a subsequent paper.     

Earth system analysis and management

A research strategy based upon models of intermediate complexity addressing crucial aspects of global environmental change is presented. The key idea behind that strategy is to compress system complexity either by formal techniques such that first-order aspects are preserved, or to employ semi-qualitative schemes to describe and simulate the dominant dynamical patterns identified by panoramic inspection.Specific realizations of the overall heuristic philosophy are introduced as elements of a comprehensive research program on global change. Topics encompass global climate modeling, a decision analysis framework for managing the global warming problem by balancing adaptation and mitigation efforts, a generic approach to integrated regional climate impact assessment and its implementation in specific regions, as well as a new technique to link regional and global patterns of environmental change by using advanced modeling tools.     

Spatial scale-dependent policy planning for land management in southern Europe

This study outlines and original tool for rural policy planning in southern Europe. This new tool is a process-based, scale-dependent, rural policy-making approach, which is designed to address increasing land degradation problems in southern Europe. Seven important processes are identified (land abandonment, devegetation, intensification in agriculture, global climate change, accelerated soil erosion, increasing water demands, urbanisation) and plotted on a space-time diagram, which clearly shows the spatial and temporal scales for which these processes are significant for landscape change in southern Europe. Conclusions are derived concerning, in particular, sustainable (optimal) rural policy-making for southern Europe's problematic land management. An optimal spatial-temporal scale for land management in southern Europe may range spatially from the farm (0.5 km²) to sub-provincial level (450 km²) and temporally from 7 to 30 years. The study delineates methods and results derivable from such a new policy-planning approach and suggests the usefulness of combining this approach with ecological land classification at the landscape level.     

Foraminifera as bioindicators in coral reef assessment and monitoring: the FORAM Index. Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring

Coral reef communities are threatened worldwide. Resource managers urgently need indicators of the biological condition of reef environments that can relate data acquired through remote-sensing, water-quality and benthic-community monitoring to stress responses in reef organisms. The FORAM (Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring) Index (FI) is based on 30 years of research on reef sediments and reef-dwelling larger foraminifers. These shelled protists are ideal indicator organisms because: Foraminifers are widely used as environmental and paleoenvironmental indicators in many contexts; Reef-building, zooxanthellate corals and foraminifers with algal symbionts have similar water-quality requirements; The relatively short life spans of foraminifers as compared with long-lived colonial corals facilitate differentiation between long-term water-quality decline and episodic stress events; Foraminifers are relatively small and abundant, permitting statistically significant sample sizes to be collected quickly and relatively inexpensively, ideally as a component of comprehensive monitoring programs; and Collection of foraminifers has minimal impact on reef resources.USEPA guidelines for ecological indicators are used to evaluate the FI. Data required are foraminiferal assemblages from surface sediments of reef-associated environments. The FI provides resource managers with a simple procedure for determining the suitability of benthic environments for communities dominated by algal symbiotic organisms. The FI can be applied independently, or incorporated into existing or planned monitoring efforts. The simple calculations require limited computer capabilities and therefore can be applied readily to reef-associated environments worldwide. In addition, the foraminiferal shells collected can be subjected to morphometric and geochemical analyses in areas of suspected heavy-metal pollution, and the data sets for the index can be used with other monitoring data in detailed multidimensional assessments.     

Methane in ocean waters: Concentration and carbon isotope variability at East Pacific Rise and in the Arabian Sea

Methane concentrations and stable carbon isotope ratios of water samples from the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 21°S and the Arabian Sea (24°N, 65°E) have been determined. EPR surface water is in equilibrium (ca. 50 nl/L and –50<¹³CH₄<–46) with atmospheric methane. Deep background water has the signature of the remaining fraction of atmospheric methane partially oxidized in the water column by bacteria. Bottom near, hydrothermally influenced vent methane (>100nl/L and –30<¹³CH₄<–22) is detectable only close to the seep site. There is no input of hydrothermal methane into the atmosphere. EPR water is considered to be rather a sink than a source of atmospheric methane. Surface waters of the Arabian Sea are enriched in methane relative to the atmosphere (source for atmospheric methane). Carbon isotope ratios point to a bacterial origin of methane (¹³CH₄<–55) that is generated in the surface waters. Concentration changes and variations of carbon isotope ratios also suggest that methane seeping from the sea floor sediments of the Arabian Sea is oxidized by bacterial activity and does not reach the atmosphere.     

Characterization of atmospheric dust at Gurushikar,Mt. Abu,Rajasthan

The nature of atmospheric aerosols at Gurushikar, Mt. Abu, Rajasthan where a gamma ray telescope is to be installed, was investigated. Air particulate samples collected on filters were used to estimate the total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) and its elemental composition. The TSPM varied from 31 to 103 g/m³ during January to March 1994. The heighest loads were observed during the months of May and June (80–100 g/m³) and lowest during October (20–60 g/m³). The dust was also examined for size, shape and nature of the mineral matter. The particle sizes varied from 100 m to 5 m. The course particles (>50 m) are irregular shaped quartz grains. Some of the medium size (=50 m) particles were spherical and were highly conducting. These particles were rich in iron content. Correlation coefficients among various elements in the dust showed that it is made up of mainly two components-wind blown ground dust and particulate arising out of wood and coal burning.     

Using cellular automata for integrated modelling of socio-environmental systems

Cellular automata provide the key to a dynamic modelling and simulation framework that integrates socio-economic with environmental models, and that operates at both micro and macro geographical scales. An application to the problem of forecasting the effect of climate change on a small island state suggests that such modelling techniques could help planners and policy makers design more effective policies — policies better tuned both to specific local needs and to overall socio-economic and environmental constraints.Paper presented at the Workshop on GIS Applications in Coastal Zone Management Of Small Island States, Barbados, April 20–22, 1994. RIKS publication 905000/94100, April 1994.     

Optimisation analysis and integrated models of the enhanced greenhouse effect

The issues surrounding the anticipated impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect are likely to form a significant part of the research activities in the coming years. In this paper we have adopted a control theoretic approach to the analysis of one of the world's best known integrated models of the enhanced greenhouse effect: the Dutch IMAGE 1.0 (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect) model. The paper demonstrates that optimisation methodologies can be applied to integrated models to enhance their interpretative power. This is accomplished by providing a mechanism whereby optimal emission allocation strategies can be formulated from existing models. One result of particular interest is that the analysis confirms that the earlier human input into the climate system can be stabilised, the higher the levels of CO₂ emissions can be permitted and still achieve specific long-term environmental target.     

Global ocean monitoring for the World Climate Research Programme

Oceanic research and modelling for the World Climate Research Program will utilize several recently-developed instruments and measuring techniques as well as well-tested, long-used instruments. Ocean-scanning satellites will map the component of the ocean-surface topography related to ocean currents and mesoscale eddies and to fluctuating water volumes caused by ocean warming and cooling. Other satellite instruments will measure the direction and magnitude of wind stress on the sea surface, surface water temperatures, the distribution of chlorophyll and other photosynthetic pigments, the characteristics of internal waves, and possible precipitation over the ocean. Networks of acoustic transponders will obtain a three-dimensional picture of the distribution of temperature from the surface down to mid-depth and of long-term changes in temperature at depth. Ocean research vessels will determine the distribution and fate of geochemical tracers and will also make high-precision, deep hydrographic casts. Ships of opportunity, using expendable instruments, will measure temperature, salinity and currents in the upper water layers. Drifting and anchored buoys will also measure these properties as well as those of the air above the sea surface. Tide gauges installed on islands and exposed coastal locations will measure variations in monthly and shorter-period mean sea level. These tide gauges will provide ground truth for the satellite maps of sea-surface topography, and will also determine variations in ocean currents and temperature.All these instruments will be used in several major programs, the most ambitious of which is the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) designed to obtain global measurements of major currents throughout the world ocean, greater understanding of the transformation of water masses, and the role of advective, convective, and turbulent processes in exchange of properties between surface and deep-ocean layers.A five- to ten-year experiment—Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere (TOGA)—will be undertaken to sudy the sequence of events of air-sea interactions in the tropical oceans and their impact on climatic variations on land—for example, variations in the strength and location of the Indian Ocean monsoon, droughts in low latitudes, and climatic fluctuations in temperate latitudes.Experimental and continuing time series will be taken at fixed locations to obtain a better picture of the magnitude and causes of ocean climate variability. National and multinational systematic repeated measurements along selected ocean transects or in specific ocean areas will be taken to determine oceanic variability and teleconnections between oceanic and atmospheric processes. Examples are the long Japanese section along the meridian of 137° E and the Sections program of the USSR and several other countries in Energy-Active zones.The results from this wide range of observations and experiments will be used to guide and define mathematical models of the ocean circulation and its interactions with the atmosphere.It can be shown that biogeochemical processes in the ocean play an important role in determining the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and thus in causing long-term climatic changes. Variations in the biological productivity of sub-surface waters cause variations in the effectveness of the biological pump which carries organic carbon down into deeper waters where it is oxidized. Studies of ice cores from 20 000 to 30 000 yr before the present indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide varied by a factor of 2 within times of the order of 100 yr, and these variations were accompanied by large excursions in atmospheric temperature. Thus, ocean climatic monitoring must take into account measurements of both biological and physical variations in the ocean.     

Routine Measurement of Dissolved Inorganic 15N in Precipitation and Streamwater

The difficulty of measuring 15N in dilute solutions has limited the potential of ecosystem labeling experiments and model comparisons. By concentrating the N from large (up to 20 L) water samples on ion-exchange resin columns, we obtained enough N for accurate and reproducible 15N measurement using the Teflon tape diffusion method. Analysis of standards demonstrated >95% recovery of inorganic N from samples, and 15N values comparable to those obtained using standard distillation methods. The value of the blank at our laboratory was 0.16 moles N. Analytical precision was within 2 15N when samples of streamwater from the Bear Brook Watersheds (1800 eq · ha-1 · yr-1 N addition at 192 15N) were kept frozen until analysis. The analytical process is lengthy, but once set up can easily be performed for large numbers of samples.     

Trihalomethane Formation Potential and Concentration Changes During Water Treatment at Mumbai (India)

The treated water at the outlet oftreatment plants and representative servicereservoirs of Mumbai city have been evaluatedfor trihalomethane formation potential in1995–1996. Chloroform, dichlorobromomethane,chlorodibromomethane and bromoform have beenmonitored during monsoon, winter and summer.The levels of chloroform are found above theregulated WHO guideline value of 200 g L^-1 in final water during postmonsoon atGhatkopar (226 g L^-1), Malbar (210.3 g L^-1) and Tulsi (231.26 g L^-1).     

Reporting emissions of greenhouse gases in Canada

Non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases are considered in Canada's National Report on Climate Change: Actions to Meet Commitments Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. By including all major greenhouse gases and their anthropogenic sources and sinks using best available science, the Report provides a practical illustration of the comprehensive approach policy to implementing the Convention's requirements. In addition to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, the Report includes information on other sources and sinks for carbon dioxide, and for methane and nitrous oxide. Other gases considered include polyflourocarbons, hydroflourocarbons, and the primary tropospheric ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. Current Global Warming Potential indices are used to compare and integrate the best estimates of climate change impacts of the major greenhouse gases. The presentation of emission data is intended to be transparent and comparable. The relative quality of the data for various gases and sources is indicated. The existence of environmental, economic, and other benefits to limiting emissions of all greenhouse gases, in addition to carbon dioxide, should be recognized. Continuing assessments and actions on non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions, both nationally and internationally, are suggested.     

Measuring the Welfare Cost of Climate Change Policies: A Comparative Assessment Based on the Computable General Equilibrium Model GEMINI-E3

Measuring the welfare cost of climate change policies is a real challenge, raising difficult issues of micro- and macro-economics: cost-benefit analysis on the one hand, foreign trade and international specialization on the second hand. At the domestic level the possible existence of distortions, in particular in the fiscal system, may either increase or alleviate the welfare cost of a climate change policy, as illustrated by the debate on double dividend. Effects on the prices in international markets and distorted competition between countries committed to abate (Annex B) and uncommitted countries affect both the sharing of the burden, in particular through the change in the terms of trade, and the allocation of activities with the frequently waved threat of delocalization. Based on a companion theoretical analysis, the present paper aims at putting order in the welfare analysis of climate change policy and to present and compare various estimations, issuing from macro- or computable general equilibrium models. Beside the global welfare cost, the paper focuses on the marginal abatement cost and its relation to the carbon price.Most present conceptual and applied analysis is based on the case of a single domestic household-consumer. Taking into account several consumers raises new challenges, concerning equity but even more fundamentally the mere definition of fiscal distortion, which have not yet been really addressed.     

Monitoring the biotic aspects of our environment as a policy instrument

As all environmental programs also programs monitoring the biotic aspects of our environment (dealt with in this article) should contribute to a more effective and efficient environmental policy. These programs have to function therefore (as no other type of environmental information does, according to the authors) as cheap and efficient early warning and early control systems, providing decision makers with important and reliable monitoring results.How these monitoring programs should function in the decision making process is illustrated in abstract in this article by a simple control system with feedback (as shown in Figures 1, 2 and 3).The monitoring programs dealt with in this article should enable us to detect and forecast changes in the most important biotic aspects of our environment and-by continuous monitoring-to control whether the use of policy instruments has been effective or not in averting or diminishing unwanted changes (problems).Two options of decision makers with respect to monitoring results are shown (either to disregard unwanted changes as a problem or to accept these changes as a problem and to do something about them). To contribute to an effective and efficient environmental policy monitoring results therefore have to be important and reliable enough to react upon.The question is raised which biotic aspects in our environment are (or have to be considered as) important (because of their own value, as indicators and/or as biotic conditions) and how reliable monitoring results can (have to) be obtained.It is discussed how environmentalists could try to make it more difficult for decision makers to duck the problems (by monitoring only important aspects and by using only perfectly clear targets and standards) and how they could try at the same time to make it easier for them to take action (by setting up integrated environmental monitoring programs in order to find out how desired and undesired changes can be influenced). The role of active publicity is stressed in this connection.     

Intake of Chromium by the Adult Population of Mumbai City

Electro Thermal Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry (ET-AAS), is used for the determination of chromium (Cr) in a variety of environmental matrices. The detection limit for the estimation of Cr is 2 pg absolute for a volume injection of 20 l. The precision of the method is established by analysing Cr from a synthetic mixture containing various elements in different qualities (0.5–10 ppm) and is found to be within ± 8%. The reliability of estimation is further assessed through the analysis of Standard Reference Materials (SRMs) of soil, hay, milk powder and lake sediment obtained from IAEA.The total intake of Cr through air, water and food works out to be 54 g/day for the adult population of Mumbai city. The dietary intake through food is the major contributor to the total intake of Cr. The concentration of Cr in atmospheric air and drinking water collected from different suburbs showed geometric mean concentrations of 0.09 g/m³ and 0.3 g/l, respectively. The daily intake of Cr, though lower, is closer to the lower bound of the recommended value of 50–200 g/day.     

Environmental Contaminants in Blood, Hair, and Tissues of Ocelots from the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas, 1986–1997

The ocelot (Felis pardalis) isan endangered neotropical cat distributed within asmall range in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV), inTexas, U.S.A. Studies of the impacts of environmentalcontaminants in wild cats are few. Approximately onefourth of the estimated population (about 100) ofocelots in the LRGV was sampled to evaluate theimpacts of chlorinated pesticides, polychlorinatedbiphenyls, and trace elements on the population. Hairwas collected from 32 ocelots trapped between 1986–1992,and blood was collected from 20 ocelots trappedbetween 1993–1997. A few blood samples were obtainedfrom individuals recaptured two or three times. Tissue samples from 4 road-killed ocelots were alsoanalyzed. DDE, PCBs, and Hg were some of the mostcommon contaminants detected in hair and blood. MeanHg levels in hair ranged from 0.5 to 1.25 g g^-1 dw,Se from 1.5 to 3.48 g g^-1 dw, and Pb from 0.56 to26.8 g g^-1 dw. Mean DDE concentrations in plasma ranged from 0.005 g g^-1 ww to 0.153 g g^-1 ww, and PCBs ranged from 0.006 g g^-1 ww to 0.092 g g^-1 ww. Mean Hg levels in red blood cells rangedfrom 0.056 g g^-1 dw to 0.25 g g^-1 dw. Concentrations of DDE, PCBs, or Hg, did not increasesignificantly with age, although the highestconcentrations of DDE and Hg were found in olderanimals. Overall, concentrations of DDE, PCBs, and Hgwere low and at levels that currently do not pose anythreat to health or survival of the ocelot. This isfurther supported by good reproduction of the ocelotin the LRGV, where adult females averaged about 1.5kittens/litter. Thus, it seems that the current majorthreat to recovery of the ocelot in the LRGV may behabitat loss, although potential impacts of newgeneration pesticides, such as organophosphorus andcarbamate insecticides need further study.