Climate change decision-support and the tolerable windows approach

The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) to Integrated Assessments (IA) of global warming is based on external normative specifications of tolerable sets of climate impacts as well as proposed emission quotas and policy instruments for implementation. In a subsequent step, the complete set of admissible climate protection strategies which are compatible with these normative inputs is determined by scientific analysis. In doing so, minimum requirements concerning global and national greenhouse gas emission paths can be determined. In this paper we present the basic methodological elements of TWA, discuss its relation to more conventional approaches to IA like cost–benefit analyses, and present some preliminary results obtained by a reduced-form climate model.     

Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.     

Rethinking human health impact assessment

Most EIA programs around the world require the consideration of human health impacts. Yet relatively few EIA documents adequately address those impacts. This article examines how, why, and to what extent health impacts are analyzed in environmental impact assessments in the U.S. An empirical study of 42 environmental impact statements found that more than half contained no mention of health impacts. In the others, health impacts were analyzed narrowly, if at all, using risk assessment to quantify the carcinogenic potential of a single substance over a single generation. This analytic focus overlooks other significant morbidity and mortality risks, cumulative and intergenerational effects, and broader determinants of health. This article investigates these problems and provides recommendations to improve human health impact assessment, using strategic environmental assessment, qualitative health data, health outcomes in addition to cancer, and a precautionary approach to risk.     

A System to Monitor Climate Change with Epilithic Lichens

The issue of biological monitoring of the local consequences of anticipated global climate change is considered for the Central Negev Highlands, Israel. Epilithic lichens are suggested as biological monitors. The proposed methodology of such monitoring consists of a sampling scheme, including lichen measurement along transects on flat calcareous rocks, and construction of a trend detection index (TDI). TDI is a sum of lichen species cover with coefficients chosen so as to ensure maximum ability to detect global climate trends. Coefficients have been estimated in a study of lichens along an altitudinal gradient from 500 to 1000 m a.s.l. The gradient study demonstrated that the TDI index is performed better than other integrated indices. Recommendations on this system to monitor climate change with epilthic lichens are given. Measuring, for instance, a hundred transects in fifty plots (two transet per plot scheme) allows one to detect a climate-driven change in the epilithic lichen community corresponding to a 0.8 °C shift in annual mean temperature. Such resolution appears sufficient in view of global warming of 2.5 °C considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a realistic prediction for the end of the next century.     

Syndromes of Global Change: a qualitative modelling approach to assist global environmental management

A novel transdisciplinary approach to investigate Global Change (GC) is presented. The approach rests on the decomposition of the intrigue dynamics of GC into patterns of civilization–nature interactions (syndromes) by an iterative scientific process of observations, data and system theoretical analyses, and modelling attempts. We illustrate the approach by a detailed analysis of the Sahel Syndrome, which describes the rural poverty driven overuse of natural resources. The investigation is performed by (i) identifying relevant symptoms and interlinkages which are characteristics for this pattern, and (ii) a qualitative model representing the internal dynamics of the essential flywheel. The geographical patchwork of the regions affected by the syndrome which is obtained by global data analysis, proves the high global relevance of this pattern. The qualitative model is employed for an evaluation of basic policy strategies debated in the context of rural poverty driven environmental degradation. It turns out that a mixed policy of combating poverty and introducing soil preserving agricultural techniques and practices is most promising to tackle the syndrome dynamics.     

Application of a risk assessment based approach to designing ambient air quality monitoring networks for evaluating non-cancer health impacts

An ambient air quality monitoring network has been establishedusing risk assessment techniques to evaluate adverse health effects from exposures to airborne contaminants. The risk assessment method was compared to traditional methods of establishing air quality monitoring networks: identifying maximumconcentration impacts or maximum total population. Results suggest that the health risk method best predicted the locationof adverse, non-carcinogenic respiratory illnesses during the evaluation period. Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient, r _s, values obtained using the risk assessment method werestatistically greater than the values obtained using theconcentration and population methods. The concentration methodwas the least accurate predictor of adverse effects.     

Climate Impact Response Functions for Terrestrial Ecosystems

We introduce climate impact response functions as a means for summarizing and visualizing the responses of climate-sensitive sectors to changes in fundamental drivers of global climate change. In an inverse application, they allow the translation of thresholds for climate change impacts (‘impact guard-rails’) into constraints for climate and atmospheric composition parameters (‘climate windows’). It thus becomes feasible to specify long-term objectives for climate protection with respect to the impacts of climate change instead of crude proxy variables, like the change in global mean temperature. We apply the method to assess impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, using the threat to protected areas as the central impact indicator. Future climate states are characterized by geographically and seasonally explicit climate change patterns for temperature, precipitation and cloud cover, and by their atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The patterns are based on the results of coupled general circulation models. We study the sensitivity of the impact indicators and the corresponding climate windows to the spatial coverage of the analysis and to different climate change projections. This enables us to identify the most sensitive biomes and regions, and to determine those factors which significantly influence the results of the impact assessment. Based on the analysis, we conclude that climate impact response functions are a valuable means for the representation of climate change impacts across a wide range of plausible futures. They are particularly useful in integrated assessment models of climate change based on optimizing or inverse approaches where the on-line simulation of climate impacts by sophisticated impact models is infeasible due to their high computational demand. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Environmental impact assessment: The work of the OECD

This report describes the work of an international group that is supported in part by the Dutch Ministry for Environment and is chaired by Frans Evers, the Ministry's Deputy Director-General for Environmental Protection.     

Climate Change and Climate Variability: Adaptations to Reduce Adverse Health Impacts

Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.     

Participatory integrated assessment of adaptation to climate change in Alpine tourism and mountain agriculture

Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A corporate approach to social monitoring and assessment for development in a fragile environment

The prevailing corporate trend regardingdevelopment of energy resources in the tropics emphasizesfinancial gain over long-term societal benefits. Somecorporations are beginning to find a competitive advantage linkedto proactive relations with host communities and adequateprotection of fragile ecosystems. Herein, we describe a casestudy where an international energy production company workedwith stakeholders to achieve social capital and sustainabledevelopment. The strategies aimed to strengthen local capacity toimprove social welfare and to ensure conservation and wise use ofbiodiversity. We provide examples, discuss lessons learned andmake recommendations for future development projects.     

Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources

It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m³ in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.     

Air pollution in Athens basin and health risk assessment

An inventory of air pollution sources within the Athens basin is carried out for the years 1989, 1992 and 1998 and the results areinputted in a climatological model for predicting ambient concentrations. Despite of the significant growth in the numberof road vehicles and the deteriorating traffic, the emissions andambient concentrations of fine particulates, CO, NO_x and VOCappear to remain reasonably constant over for the period 1989 to 1998, while these of SO₂ and Pb are reduced, mainly due to the renewal of vehicle fleet, the use of catalytic technologies and the improved quality of the used fuel. The results further indicate that for CO, NO_x and VOC the major source is road traffic, while for PM_2.5 and SO₂ both space heating andtraffic share responsibility. The air pollutant concentrations monitored by the network of 11 stations are reviewed and statistics related to air quality guidelines are presented. As fine particulate levels are not monitored, approximate PM_2.5and PM₁₀ concentrations are derived from black smoke ones on basis of experimentally determined conversion factors. The computed and monitored air pollution levels are compared and found in reasonable agreement. The results of the above analysisshow that the levels of all `classical' pollutants, with the exception of SO₂ and Pb, exceed significantly the WHO guidelines and are thus expected to exert a significant healthimpact. The latter could be quantified in relation to the PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ levels on the basis of risk assessment information developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). The results show that the existing levels of fine particle concentrations in Athens increase significantly the mortality and morbidity, and reduce the average longevity of the entirepopulation from 1.3 to 1.7 years.     

Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses

Economic losses caused by tropical cyclones have increased dramatically. Historical changes in losses are a result of meteorological factors (changes in the incidence of severe cyclones, whether due to natural climate variability or as a result of human activity) and socio-economic factors (increased prosperity and a greater tendency for people to settle in exposed areas). This paper aims to isolate the socio-economic effects and ascertain the potential impact of climate change on this trend. Storm losses for the period 1950–2005 have been adjusted to the value of capital stock in 2005 so that any remaining trend cannot be ascribed to socio-economic developments. For this, we introduce a new approach to adjusting losses based on the change in capital stock at risk. Storm losses are mainly determined by the intensity of the storm and the material assets, such as property and infrastructure, located in the region affected. We therefore adjust the losses to exclude increases in the capital stock of the affected region. No trend is found for the period 1950–2005 as a whole. In the period 1971–2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.