Implementing optimal taxes using tradable share permits

This paper presents a simple system for efficient regulation under asymmetric information. Each firm's income is controlled by a tax that depends on the firm's own output and on a parameter construed as a share permit. These “shares of total expected output” lower a firm's tax burden and are acquired in a competitive market. By employing this scheme, the planner only requires knowledge of marginal damage to induce the first-best outcome. Relative to a traditional cap-and-trade approach the system increases expected social welfare.     

Dynamic incentive regulation of diffuse pollution

Diffuse pollution from agriculture and extractive industries reduces air and water quality and contributes to climate change. We consider a setting in which a regulator must incentivize unobserved abatement given that firms have limited liability, and when they can enter and exit. We demonstrate that a simple dynamic incentive scheme can solve this difficult regulatory problem: firms pay a constant tax and receive rebates following periods of low pollution. We apply the model to water pollution from a fracking operation and simulate the contract to explore the volatility of the firm's payments and the costs of limited liability.     

Intergenerational aspects of ecotax reforms – An application to Germany

In a model of overlapping generations and majority voting, we analyze an ecotax reform consisting of the tax rate and the budgetary rule. Revenue can be recycled through a lump-sum transfer or a reduction in pension contributions. Our theoretical results as well as the calibration of our model to the German economy show that the median voter's preferred tax rate may exceed the efficient rate. This holds whenever income of the decisive voter is sufficiently high compared to the average income, as rich individuals benefit more from a reduction in pension contributions than they are harmed by an increase in ecotaxes. The calibration confirms that the median voter prefers the earmarking of tax revenue for reductions in pension contributions to the alternative lump-sum transfer. This is quite an accurate prediction of the situation in Germany. Aging of society as expected for Germany lowers the ecotax in the political equilibrium below its optimal level.     

Market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China: The impact of consumers' response through driving patterns

We investigate the market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China relative to an alternative policy instrument that rations the number of new automobile sales through auctioned quotas. Unlike those of previous studies, our modeling approach incorporates both household car purchase and utilization decisions, the latter of which have been ignored in previous studies on China's fuel tax. Ignoring this margin of choice will underestimate the fuel tax's ability to mitigate externalities. Using detailed household-level panel data and a fixed effects econometric specification, we estimate the fuel price elasticity of vehicle miles traveled is −0.59 on average. The results of the counterfactual analysis suggest that a 51% increase in tax-inclusive gasoline prices will reduce car sales by 24.9% but increase social welfare to a degree that depends on vehicles' lifetime. We find that compared to auctioned quotas, the fuel tax results in greater car sales but higher social welfare.     

Jobs and climate policy: Evidence from British Columbia's revenue-neutral carbon tax

This paper examines the employment impact of British Columbia's revenue-neutral carbon tax implemented in 2008. While all industries appear to benefit from the redistributed tax revenues, the most carbon-intensive and trade-sensitive industries see employment fall with the tax, while clean service industries see employment rise. By aggregating across industries I find the BC carbon tax generated, on average, a small but statistically significant 0.74 percent annual increases in employment over the 2007–2013 period. This paper provides initial evidence showing how a revenue-neutral carbon tax may not adversely affect employment.     

Firm behavior under imperfectly enforceable pollution standards and taxes

Assuming expected profit maximization, the behavior of the firm under imperfectly enforceable pollution standards is examined. Among other results, it is found that cost subsidies can reduce the size of violation and amount of wastes, and that the shape of the expected penalty function determines the direction of the firm response to tighter standards. Under imperfectly enforceable pollution taxes, it is found, among other results, that the firm's actual level of wastes is independent of proportional changes in the expected penalty for pollution tax evasion, and that the marginal cost of actual waste reduction equals the unit tax on reported wastes. Some normative aspects of the results are discussed.     

Is Chinese trade policy motivated by environmental concerns?

This paper analyses whether China's export VAT rebates and export taxes are driven by environmental concerns. Since China struggles to enforce environmental regulation, trade policy can be used as a second-best environmental policy. In a general equilibrium model it is possible to show that the second-best export tax increases in a product's pollution intensity. The empirical analysis investigates whether the export tax equivalent of partial VAT rebates and export taxes are higher for products which are more pollution intensive along several dimensions. The results indicate that the VAT rebate rates are set in a way that discourages exports of water pollution intensive, SO₂ intensive and energy intensive products from 2007 on. Moreover, the conservation of natural resources such as minerals, metals, wood products and precious stones seems to be a key determinant of China's export VAT rebate rates. There is little evidence that export taxes are motivated by environmental concerns.     

Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes

For reducing greenhouse gas emissions, intensity targets are attracting interest as a flexible mechanism that would better allow for economic growth than emissions caps. For the same expected emissions, however, the economic responses to unexpected productivity shocks differ. Using a real business cycle model, we find that a cap dampens the effects of productivity shocks in the economy on all variables except for the shadow value of the emissions constraint. An emissions tax leads to the same expected outcomes as a cap but with greater volatility. Certainty-equivalent intensity targets maintain higher levels of labor, capital, and output than other policies, with lower expected costs and no more volatility than with no policy.     

Emissions targets and the real business cycle: Intensity targets versus caps or taxes

For reducing greenhouse gas emissions, intensity targets are attracting interest as a flexible mechanism that would better allow for economic growth than emissions caps. For the same expected emissions, however, the economic responses to unexpected productivity shocks differ. Using a real business cycle model, we find that a cap dampens the effects of productivity shocks in the economy on all variables except for the shadow value of the emissions constraint. An emissions tax leads to the same expected outcomes as a cap but with greater volatility. Certainty-equivalent intensity targets maintain higher levels of labor, capital, and output than other policies, with lower expected costs and no more volatility than with no policy.     

Tax versus emissions trading scheme in the long run

In this paper we compare the performance of emission taxes and tradable permits under free market entry when firms face idiosyncratic ex ante cost uncertainty. We show that under auctioned permits insufficient entry occurs, while under a linear emission tax scheme, depending on parameters, market entry can be either excessive or insufficient. Our long-run analysis thus contrasts with Spulber׳s (1985) equivalence result and also modifies Weitzman׳s result in favor of an ETS in that the superiority of a tax over an ETS is not guaranteed, even when the Weitzman condition favors a tax. We also show that an ETS is superior to a tax scheme when the entry cost is low and the magnitude of uncertainty/asymmetric information and the size of the output market are large.     

Roles of digital technology in China's sustainable forestry development

China has the fifth largest forest area in the world and any change in China's forestry development will have inevitable impacts on global ecological sustainability. China has undergone excessive logging of natural forests and also made tremendous efforts in afforestation during the past half century. China's forestry is now going through a variety of transitions and several forestry programs have been implemented to drive forestry transitions. The goal of these actions is to protect ecological services of forests and sustain China's forestry development. These forestry programs are spatially sophisticated and cannot be successfully implemented without accurate and transparent forest/forestry information. A variety of digital technologies, including forest modeling, remote sensing, geographic information systems, global positioning systems, and visualization, have been applied in handling diverse information in China's forestry. Digital forestry is not just a theoretical concept in China. Our digital forestry experience in northeast China suggests that digital technology is both usable and useful in China's forestry development. Digital technology is playing an important interactive role in China's top-down forestry administration system. The analog-to-digital transition in technology is expected to lead to the success of forestry programs and forestry transitions in China.     

The resistibility and shiftability of depletable externalities

In their recently revised book Baumol and Oates (“The Theory of Environmental Policy,” 2nd ed., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK 1988) accept Bird's argument on the optimal taxation policy when externalities are shiftable and depletable. Their conclusion is that the standard Pigouvian tax which is placed upon the generator of a negative externality can be extended to tax the victims who shift the externality to others or extended to compensate recipients in order to achieve Pareto optimality. It is shown in this paper that their conclusion is not free from error, because the possibility of resisting a shifted externality and conjectural variations by recipients is not recognized. Whether an externality is shiftable depends not only on the shifting activity of the original victim but also the resisting activity of his neighbors and their conjectures about each other's action. As such, the shifters should be taxed and the recipients should be compensated at the same rate per unit of externality shifted if the tax base is the output of the shifting and resisting activities. On the other hand, if the tax base is the input which produced the shifting of the externality, then both the shifters and the recipients should be subject to a tax (or subsidy) per unit of input that they have engaged in. Whether it is a tax or a subsidy depends on the direction and magnitude of the conjectural variation. The model and its policy implication can be generalized to cover the omnipresent and wasteful rent seeking activities.     

Tax evasion and optimal environmental taxes

This paper introduces a new argument to the debate about the role of environmental taxes in modern tax systems. Some environmental taxes, particularly taxes on gasoline or electricity, are more difficult to evade than taxes on labor or income. When the tax base is shifted in a revenue-neutral manner toward these environmental taxes, the result is a net reduction in the amount of tax evasion. Using a carbon tax as a motivating example, the “tax evasion effect” is shown to sharply reduce the welfare cost of controlling emissions. A simple computable general equilibrium model suggests that the impact of considering tax evasion can be large: costs are lowered by 28% in the United States, by 89% in China, and by 97% in India. In countries with high levels of pre-existing tax evasion, a carbon tax will pay for itself through improvements in the efficiency of the tax system.     

Ambiguity,reasoned determination,and climate-change policy

This paper examines climate-change benefit-cost analysis in the presence of scientific uncertainty in the form of ambiguity. The specific issue addressed is the robustness of benefit-cost analyses of climate-change policy alternatives to relaxation of Savage's original axioms. Two alternatives to subjective expected utility (SEU) are considered: maximin expected utility (MEU) and incomplete expected utility (IEU). Among other results, it is demonstrated that polar opposite recommendations can emerge in an ambiguous decision setting even if all agree on Society's rate of time preference, Society's risk attitudes, the degree of ambiguity faced, and the scientific primitives. We show that, for a simple numerical simulation of our model, an MEU decision maker favors policies which immediately tackle climate change while an IEU decision prefers “business as usual”.“Each agency shall assess the costs and benefits of the intended regulation, and recognizing that some costs and benefits are difficult to quantify, propose or adopt a regulation only upon a reasoned determination that the benefits of the intended regulation justify its cost.” Executive Order 12866 of the US President.     

Effects of Carbon Taxes in an Economy with Prior Tax Distortions: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper analyzes the costs of carbon taxes in a model that recognizes interactions between this tax and pre-existing taxes. First we examine the extent to which costs of a U.S. carbon tax are reduced when its revenues finance cuts in income taxes. Such use of revenues significantly reduces, but does not eliminate, the overall policy costs. The positive overall costs reflect the carbon tax′s focus on intermediate inputs and its relatively narrow base in comparison with income taxes. We also examine the sensitivity of the carbon tax′s costs to the level of pre-existing taxes. For any given use of revenues, welfare costs rise significantly with pre-existing tax rates, indicating that models disregarding pre-existing taxes may substantially understate the costs of new environmental tax initiatives.     

Innovation and diffusion of clean/green technology: Can patent commons help?

This paper explores the characteristics of 238 patents on 90 inventions contributed by major multinational innovators to the “Eco-Patent Commons”, which provides royalty-free access to third parties to patented innovations on green technologies. We compare the pledged patents to other patents in the same technologies or held by the same multinationals to investigate the motives of the contributing firms as well as the potential for such commons to encourage innovation and diffusion of climate change related technologies. We find pledged patents to protect environmentally friendly technologies and to be of similar value as the average patent in a pledging firm's patent portfolio but of lower value than other patents in their class. Our analysis of the impact of the patent commons on diffusion of patented technologies suggests that making patents accessible royalty-free did not result in any significant increase in diffusion as measured by citing patents. This study, therefore, indirectly provides evidence on the role of patents in the development and diffusion of green technologies.     

Emission reduction and profit-neutral permit allocations

The present paper addresses two policy objectives: to implement a market for pollution permits and to make regulation acceptable for businesses. Profit-neutral permit allocations are defined as the number of permits that the regulator should give for free so that post-regulation profits (i.e. a firm's profits in the products market plus the value of the allowances granted for free) are equal to pre-regulation profits. The proposed model is developed by assuming that firms use polluting technologies and compete “à la Cournot”. The paper demonstrates that a low number of free allowances is sufficient to meet these two goals. Moreover, the regulator can fully offset losses, even when the reduction in emissions is high, provided that the sectors concerned are not monopolies, both for isoelastic and linear demand functions.     

Salience of carbon taxes in the gasoline market

We demonstrate that the carbon tax imposed by the Canadian province of British Columbia caused a decline in short-run gasoline demand that is significantly greater than would be expected from an equivalent increase in the market price of gasoline. That the carbon tax is more salient, or yields a larger change in demand than equivalent market price movements, is robust to a range of specifications. As a result of the large consumer response to the tax, we calculate that during its first four years, the tax reduced carbon dioxide emissions from gasoline consumption by 2.4 million tonnes.     

Investment in cleaner technology and signaling distortions in a market with green consumers

I analyze the pricing and investment behavior of a firm that signals the environmental attributes of its production technology through its price to uninformed environmentally conscious consumers. I then analyze the effect of change in environmental regulation on the signaling outcome and the firm's ex ante incentive to invest in cleaner technology. When regulation is weak, a firm signals cleaner technology through higher price; in this case, the firm earns lower profit when it has cleaner technology and thus, has no incentive to invest in cleaner technology. The price charged by the clean firm declines sharply beyond a critical level of regulation. When regulation is sufficiently stringent, the firm with cleaner technology charges lower price but earns higher signaling profit, and ex ante the firm has positive incentive to invest in cleaner technology. With weak regulation, the incentive of the firm to directly disclose its environmental performance rather than signal it through price is increasing in the level of regulation; the opposite holds when regulation is sufficiently stringent.     

Investment in cleaner technology and signaling distortions in a market with green consumers

I analyze the pricing and investment behavior of a firm that signals the environmental attributes of its production technology through its price to uninformed environmentally conscious consumers. I then analyze the effect of change in environmental regulation on the signaling outcome and the firm's ex ante incentive to invest in cleaner technology. When regulation is weak, a firm signals cleaner technology through higher price; in this case, the firm earns lower profit when it has cleaner technology and thus, has no incentive to invest in cleaner technology. The price charged by the clean firm declines sharply beyond a critical level of regulation. When regulation is sufficiently stringent, the firm with cleaner technology charges lower price but earns higher signaling profit, and ex ante the firm has positive incentive to invest in cleaner technology. With weak regulation, the incentive of the firm to directly disclose its environmental performance rather than signal it through price is increasing in the level of regulation; the opposite holds when regulation is sufficiently stringent.