Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming

Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here, we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming, and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum), warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average, but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca), however, all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots, and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly, in dwarf birch (Betula nana), warming advanced flower bud set, blooming, and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation.     

Climate influences the demography of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants

Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact of future climate change. Using a unique, long-term data set from eastern Idaho, USA, we parameterized integral projection models (IPMs) for Pseudoroegneria spicata, Hesperostipa comata, and Artemisia tripartita to identify the demographic rates and climate variables most important for population growth. We described survival, growth, and recruitment as a function of genet size using mixed-effect regression models that incorporated climate variables. Elasticites for the survival + growth portion of the kernel were larger than the recruitment portion for all three species, with survival + growth accounting for 87-95% of the total elasticity. The genet sizes with the highest elasticity values in each species were very close to the genet size threshold where survival approached 100%. We found strong effects of climate on the population growth rate of two of our three species. In H. comata, a 1% decrease in previous year's precipitation would lead to a 0.6% decrease in population growth. In A. tripartita, a 1% increase in summer temperature would result in a 1.3% increase in population growth. In both H. comata and A. tripartita, climate influenced population growth by affecting genet growth more than survival or recruitment. Late-winter snow was the most important climate variable for P. spicata, but its effect on population growth was smaller than the climate effects we found in H. comata or A. tripartita. For all three species, demographic responses lagged climate by at least one year. Our analysis indicates that understanding climate effects on genet growth may be crucial for anticipating future changes in the structure and function of sagebrush steppe vegetation.     

An Age-Structured Demographic Model for the Endangered Stephens' Kangaroo Rat

Effective conservation of endangered species often is hampered by inadequate knowledge of demography. We extracted information on survival and fecundity from an 18-month, live-trapping study of Dipodomys stephensi , and from this we developed an age-structured demographic model to assess population viability. Adult Stephens' kangaroo rats persisted longer than juveniles, and adult females persisted longer than adult males. Disappearance rates were high in the first months after initial capture. Thereafter, the fraction of animals persisting decreased slowly and in an approximately linear fashion on a semilogarithmic scale, suggesting age-independent mortality factors such as predation. Juvenile persistence did not differ substantially between two years of strikingly different rainfall. Onset of breeding followed the start of winter rains. Length of the breeding season, average number of litters per female, and the fraction of first-year females breeding were much greater in the year of higher rainfall. We propose a birth-pulse demographic model for D. stephensi that distinguishes juvenile and adult age classes. Temporal environmental variation can be modeled adequately with a constant survivorship schedule and variable fecundity determined by yearly precipitation. Several issues should be resolved, however, before conservation decisions are based on the model. Better estimates of juvenile survivorship are critical, the quantitative relationship between precipitation and fecundity must be determined, and the potential for density dependence and source-sink population dynamics must be evaluated.     

近50年广东省降雨时空变化及趋势研究

基于1959-2008年广东省境内25个雨量站的逐日降雨观测资料,在SQL SERVER2000中编写相关代码,对次降雨、月、雨季、年、10年、50年等6个不同时间尺度的降雨量、降雨次数、降雨类型进行统计分析。研究表明：广东省境内存在3个多雨带和3个少雨带,降雨量在空间上大致呈现东、西、北部少,中、南部多的格局,年均降雨天数内陆多于沿海,而降雨量沿海大于内陆。近50年广东省年均降雨量为1758.8 mm,降雨量由南向北呈带状递减,其降雨量最多、最少的区域分别为阳江、徐闻。年降雨天数的年际变化幅度小于降雨量的年际变化幅度。年降雨量变化不大,但降雨总天数呈现减少趋势,且减少的降雨类型以小雨、中雨为主,大雨、暴雨的降雨次数有增加的趋势,降雨量在时间分布上更为集中,旱涝灾害将会更为频繁。研究区80.0%以上的降雨量在雨季产生,其中沿海雨季降雨量占年降雨量的比重要大于内陆,且内陆（沿海）雨季降雨量一般集中在前汛期（后汛期）。在月尺度上,降雨量随月份变化呈现双峰型,两个峰值分别处于6月、8月。其中1-4月、6-8月、12月降雨量整体呈现增大趋势,5月、9-11月降雨量整体呈现减少趋势。在次降雨尺度,小雨、中雨、暴雨的平均次降雨强度有增大的趋势,而大雨、大暴雨降雨强度有微度减少的趋势。     

The relative abundance and feeding habits of the grey mullet species occurring in an Estuary in Sierra Leone,West Africa

The occurrence and relative frequency of the 5 grey mullet species found in the Black Johnson Estuary, Sierra Leone, have been observed by sampling throughout the year. Examination of stomach contents and scales has also been made. Salinity within the estuary is maximum during the dry season and minimum at the height of the rains. The organic content of the sediment reaches a peak towards the end of the rains, but is low both at the end of the dry season and during the rains. Mullet tend to be most abundant as the rains are finishing and at the beginning of the dry season when the salinity is rising and the organic matter in the sediment is maximum. The mullet encountered in the estuary were Liza falcipinnis (Cuvier and Valenciennes), L. dumerilii hoefleri (Steindachner), Mugil cephalus ashanteensis Bleeker, M. curema Cuvier and Valenciennes and L. grandisquamis (Cuvier and Valenciennes). L. falcipinnis and L. dumerilii hoefleri penetrated furthest up the estuary and have been caught in freshwater some distance up rivers. All species feed principally on the detritus and algae in the estuarine sediment. There is some seasonal variation in the composition of the diet. Comparative data on the organic content of the estuarine sediment and the sand in the stomach of the mullet are given. A field experiment with L. falcipinnis suggests an assimilation efficiency of 52% for this species. Well-marked rings have been found upon the scales of four species, and their possible significance and use are discussed.     

Bet hedging in a guild of desert annuals

Evolutionary bet hedging encapsulates the counterintuitive idea that organisms evolve traits that reduce short-term reproductive success in favor of longer-term risk reduction. It has been widely investigated theoretically, and many putative examples have been cited including practical ones such as the dormancy involved in microbe and weed persistence. However, long-term data on demographic variation from the actual evolutionarily relevant environments have been unavailable to test for its mechanistic relationship to alleged bet hedging traits. I report an association between delayed germination (a bet hedging trait) and risk using a 22-year data set on demographic variation for 10 species of desert annual plants. Species with greater variation in reproductive success (per capita survival from germination to reproduction x per capita fecundity of survivors) were found to have lower average germination fractions. This provides a definitive test using realistic data on demographic variance that confirms the life history prediction for bet hedging. I also showed that the species with greater long-term demographic variation tended to be the ones with greater sensitivity of reproductive success to variation among years in growing-season precipitation.     

Growth, fire history, and browsing recorded in wood rings of shrubs in a mild temperate climate

Separate effects of abiotic and biotic factors on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities may be recorded in growth rings of woody plants. We used Ceanothus cuneatus rigidus and Arctostaphylos pumila to tease apart the roles of fire, rain, and herbivores on the histories and community structure of four areas in a coastal mediterranean-type climate in central California with mild winters and mild summers. Ring widths of both species were related to rainfall in two of the areas; heavy deer browsing on Ceanothus overwhelmed the climate signal in the others. Ceanothus germination was more closely related to heavy rainfall, especially during ENSO years, than to fire events. In a related greenhouse experiment that evaluated these observations, the same proportions of new Ceanothus seeds germinated after burning and after receiving regular water for several months, but germination of old seeds responded primarily to the fire treatment. In areas where heavy browsing by mammals reduces recruitment and growth of Ceanothus and increases mortality, the continuance of the Ceanothus population must rely heavily on germination from the persistent seed bank during unusually wet years or after occasional fires. Because Arctostaphylos can produce new stems from underground roots, individual plants may survive and produce seeds until another fire.     

Moisture as a determinant of habitat quality for a nonbreeding neotropical migratory songbird

Identifying the determinants of habitat quality for a species is essential for understanding how populations are limited and regulated. Spatiotemporal variation in moisture and its influence on food availability may drive patterns of habitat occupancy and demographic outcomes. Nonbreeding migratory birds in the neotropics occupy a range of habitat types that vary with respect to moisture. Using carbon isotopes and a satellite-derived measure of habitat moisture, we identified a moisture gradient across home ranges of radio-tracked Northern Waterthrush (Seiurus noveboracensis). We used this gradient to classify habitat types and to examine whether habitat moisture correlates with overwinter mass change and spring departure schedules of Northern Waterthrush over the late-winter dry season in the tropics. The two independent indicators of moisture revealed similar gradients that were directly proportional to body mass change as the dry season progressed. Birds occupying drier habitats declined in body mass over the study period, while those occupying wetter habitats increased in body mass. Regardless of habitat, birds lost an average of 7.6% of their mass at night, and mass recovery during the day trended lower in dry compared with wet habitats. This suggests that daily incremental shortfalls in mass recovery can lead to considerable season-long declines in body mass. These patterns resulted in consequences for the premigratory period, with birds occupying drier habitats having a delayed rate of fat deposition compared with those in wet habitats. Taken together with the finding that males, which are significantly larger than females, are also in better condition than females regardless of habitat suggests that high-quality habitats may be limited and that there may be competition for them. The habitat-linked variation in performance we observed suggests that habitat limitation could impact individual and population-level processes both during and in subsequent periods of the annual cycle. The linkage between moisture and habitat quality for a migratory bird indicates that the availability of high-quality habitats is dynamic due to variation in precipitation among seasons and years. Understanding this link is critical for ascertaining the impact of future climate change, particularly in the Caribbean basin, where a much drier future is predicted.     

Individual and combined effects of Ca/Mg ratio and water on trait expression in Mimulus guttatus

Low Ca/Mg ratios (a defining component of serpentine soils) and low water environmental conditions often co-occur in nature and are thought to exert strong selection pressures on natural populations. However, few studies test the individual and combined effects of these environmental factors. We investigated the effects of low Ca/Mg ratio and low water availability on plant leaf, stem, stolon, and floral traits of Mimulus guttatus, a bodenvag species, i.e., a species that occurs in serpentine and non-serpentine areas. We quantified genetic variation and genetic variation for plasticity for these leaf, stem, stolon, and floral traits at three hierarchical levels: field-habitat type, population, and family, and we evaluated the relative importance of local adaptation and plasticity. We chose two populations and 10 families per population from four distinct field "habitat types" in northern California: high Ca/Mg ratio (non-serpentine) and season-long water availability, high Ca/Mg ratio and seasonally drying, low Ca/Mg ratio (serpentine) and season-long water availability, and low Ca/Mg ratio and seasonally drying. Seedlings were planted into greenhouse treatments that mimicked the four field conditions. We only detected genetic variation for stem diameter and length of longest leaf at the field-habitat level, but we detected genetic variation at the family level for nearly all traits. Soil chemistry and water availability had strong phenotypic effects, alone and in combination. Our hypothesis of an association between responses to low water levels and low Ca/Mg ratio was upheld for length of longest leaf, stem diameter, corolla width, and total number of reproductive units, whereas for other traits, responses to Ca/Mg ratio and low water were clearly independent. Our results suggest that traits may evolve independently from Ca/Mg ratios and water availability and that our focal traits were not simple alternative measures of vigor. We found genetic variation for plasticity both at the field-habitat type and family levels for half of the traits studied. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic variation for plasticity appear to be more important than local adaptation in the success of these M. guttatus populations found across a heterogeneous landscape in northern California. Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism maintaining the broad ecological breadth of native populations of M. guttatus.     

基于DNDC模型评估水位变化对滨海湿地净生态系统CO2交换的影响

水位是影响滨海湿地生态系统蓝碳功能的重要因素。气候变化引起的海平面上升以及极端气候事件的频发,可能加快水位的变化,从而改变生态系统碳交换的过程。然而,滨海湿地碳汇功能响应水位变化的机制尚不清楚。为了评估水位对滨海湿地净生态系统CO₂交换(NEE)特征的影响,以及验证DNDC(denitrification-decomposition)模型对模拟预测滨海湿地生态系统碳交换的适用性,该研究设计了野外水位控制试验(自然水位,地下20 cm水位、地表10 cm水位),并利用DNDC模型模拟和预测水位变化对滨海湿地NEE的影响。结果表明:(1)不同水位处理之间NEE差异显著,地表10 cm水位处理促进CO₂吸收,地下20 cm水位则抑制CO₂吸收;(2)经过校准和验证的DNDC模型可以准确模拟水位变化对黄河三角洲湿地NEE的影响,NEE模拟值的日动态与田间观测结果显著相关(R²>0.6);(3)通过改变气候、土壤和田间管理等输入参数对DNDC模型进行灵敏度检验,生态系统碳交换过程对日均温、降雨和水位改变的响应最为显著,其中,水位对NEE的影响主要作用于土壤呼吸(Rs)。未来气候情境下,不同水位变化下的生态系统碳交换过程随年份增长呈现不同的规律,因此未来的模拟研究应关注DNDC中水文模块和植被演替过程的完善。该研究可为预测水文变化情境下滨海湿地碳汇功能的未来发展以及政策制定提供参考。     

Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions of multiple trophic components.     

番茄某些繁殖特性对增强UV-B辐射的响应

研究了增强UV-B辐射对大田生长的两种番茄(早熟型“同辉”和晚熟型“霞光”)某些繁殖特性(最大开花数、花粉萌发和花粉管伸长、果实产量、果实品质以及子代种子的数量和质量)的影响.结果表明,与对照相比,“同辉”开花数在高辐射下增加,“霞光”开花数在低辐射下减少;“同辉”果实产量在两种辐射下都明显增加,而“霞光”果实产量只在低辐射下增加;辐射抑制了“同辉”的花粉萌发和花粉管伸长,而只是降低了“霞光”的花粉萌发率;强辐射造成两种番茄果实番茄红素下降。经过一季的增强UV-B辐射处理,“同辉”种子数量增加,低辐射下种子明显变小;“霞光”种子数量减少,且明显变小.就开花数、果实产量和种子质量而言,早熟的“同辉”品种更具抗性,而晚熟的“霞光”更敏感.图3表1参29     

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.     

Genetic Diversity and Population Size in Four Rare Southern Appalachian Plant Species

Allozyme diversity was examined in four rare, high-montane plant species from the Appalachian Mountains of southeastern North America. These species may represent relictual members or descendants of an alpine community that was more widespread during the late Pleistocene. We sampled five populations of Geum radiatum (Rosaceae), Carex misera (Cyperaceae), Trichophorum cespitosum (Cyperaceae), and the four known populations of Calamagrostis cainii (Poaceae). Genetic diversity was low for all species but was typical of that found for plant species with limited ranges. Low genetic diversity may reflect historical events associated with changes in the species' biogeography. As the Pleistocene climate warmed, suitable habitat decreased in areal extent and became fragmented, probably resulting in smaller, more-isolated populations. In recent times these species, which co-occur in fragile rock outcrop habitats, have been adversely affected by human activities. Genetic analyses revealed reduced diversity in populations of decreasing size for three species. Estimates of gene flow were low ( Nm < 1.0) in all four species. Positive associations between genetic diversity and population size, evidence of recent population declines, and the low estimates of gene flow suggest that genetic drift may play a prominent role in shaping the present-day genetic composition of these species. Furthermore, these data suggest that the genetically depauperate populations are unlikely to regain genetic variation without human intervention.     

Estimating the functional form for the density dependence from life history data

Two contrasting approaches to the analysis of population dynamics are currently popular: demographic approaches where the associations between demographic rates and statistics summarizing the population dynamics are identified; and time series approaches where the associations between population dynamics, population density, and environmental covariates are investigated. In this paper, we develop an approach to combine these methods and apply it to detailed data from Soay sheep (Ovis aries). We examine how density dependence and climate contribute to fluctuations in population size via age- and sex-specific demographic rates, and how fluctuations in demographic structure influence population dynamics. Density dependence contributes most, followed by climatic variation, age structure fluctuations and interactions between density and climate. We then simplify the density-dependent, stochastic, age-structured demographic model and derive a new phenomenological time series which captures the dynamics better than previously selected functions. The simple method we develop has potential to provide substantial insight into the relative contributions of population and individual-level processes to the dynamics of populations in stochastic environments.     

Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change into Extinction Risk Assessments for 82 Coral Species

Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration—requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert‐opinion threat‐based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species‐specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species’ extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data‐limited species likely to be affected by global‐scale threats. Incorporación del Cambio Climático y Oceánico en Estudios de Riesgo de Extinción para 82 Especies de Coral     

Dispersal Can Limit Local Plant Distribution

The ability of species to establish new populations at unoccupied sites is a critical feature in the maintenance of biological diversity, and it has taken on new importance as a result of global climate change and expected changes in species distribution. To examine the dispersal potential of plant species, seeds of four annual plant species were experimentally dispersed 40 to 600 m from existing populations in Massachusetts (U.S.A.) to 34 nearby unoccupied but apparently suitable sites. At three of these sites new populations were established that persisted for four generations and expanded slowly in area. At seven sites, a small initial population eventually died out. At the 24 other sites, new populations did not become established, indicating that the sites were in some way unsuitable, that not enough seeds arrived, or that conditions suitable for seed germination do not occur every year. These results suggest that some species may be unable to disperse naturally out of their existing ranges in response to global climate change, particularly if habitat fragmentation creates barriers to dispersal. These species may have to be assisted to reach suitable sites nearby to prevent their extinction in the wild.     

Effects of water temperature and mixed layer depth on zooplankton body size

Ecological consequences of global warming include shifts of species ranges toward higher altitudes and latitudes as well as temporal shifts in phenology and life-cycle events. Evidence is accumulating that increasing temperature is also linked to reduced body size of ectotherms. While temperature can act directly on body size, it may also act indirectly by affecting the timing of life-cycle events and the resulting population age and size structure, especially in seasonal environments. Population structure may, in turn, be influenced by temperature-driven changes in resource availability. In a field mesocosm experiment, we investigated how water temperature and mixed surface layer depth (a temperature-dependent determinant of light availability to phytoplankton) affected population dynamics, population age and size structure, and individual size at stage (size at first reproduction) of Daphnia hyalina during and after a phytoplankton spring bloom. Mixed layer depth was inversely related to the magnitudes of the phytoplankton spring bloom and the subsequent Daphnia peak, but had no effect on the body size of Daphnia. Conversely, temperature had no effects on abundance peaks but strongly affected the timing of these events. This resulted in at times positive, at other times negative, transient effects of temperature on mean body size, caused by asynchronous changes in population size structure in cold versus warm treatments. In contrast to mean body size, individual size at stage consistently decreased with increasing temperature. We suggest that size at stage could be used as an unbiased response parameter to temperature that is unaffected by transient, demographically driven changes in population size structure.     

Determining the drivers of population structure in a highly urbanized landscape to inform conservation planning

Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human‐dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home‐range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The ability to predict genetic variation in our models differed among species: 11–81% of intraspecific genetic variation was explained by environmental variables. Although an anthropogenically induced barrier (a major highway) severely restricted gene flow and movement at broad scales for some species, genetic variation seemed to be primarily driven by natural environmental heterogeneity at a local level. Our results show how assessing environmentally associated variation for multiple species under current and future climate conditions can help identify priority regions for maximizing population persistence under environmental change in urbanized regions.     

The demographic consequences of the cost of reproduction in ungulates

The cost of reproduction can generate covariation between demographic rates that can potentially influence demography and population dynamics in long-lived iteroparous species. However, there has been relatively little work linking the survival cost of reproduction and population dynamics. The apparent scarcity of information on this important link is potentially due to covariation between vital rates, which can substantially influence fluctuations in population size. In this paper we examine the opportunity for survival costs of reproduction to leave a dynamic signature using a simulation model based broadly on an ungulate life history. We find that an increase in the cost delays the onset of reproduction and reduces reproductive rates of young, but not of prime-age, females. Accordingly, the number of offspring produced declines and the interval between reproductive events increases among young females experiencing high cost. These effects are translated to an age structure skewed toward young ages and reduced population density. These results suggest that, by delaying reproduction when conditions deteriorate, females protect their survival during the critical first three years of life, after which the negative effect of reproduction on survival declines. Unless conditions for reproduction are severe, it is not profitable to delay reproduction beyond age 3 years due to the high risk of death before having a chance to reproduce. We also demonstrate that lack of adjustment of reproductive strategies to elevated levels of the cost of reproduction, for example due to rapid changes in environmental conditions, results in lower average density and longevity compared to females that have sufficient time to adjust to changes in the cost. This suggests that even moderate costs of reproduction may have a major negative effect on population dynamics of ungulates.