Assessment of ecological risks induced by land use and land cover changes in Xiamen City,China

The landscape ecological risk (LER) in Xiamen City, China, from 1990 to 2030 was studied using an urban land use and land cover change (LUCC) model and LER analysis. The LUCC model was used to predict the LUCC of Xiamen from 2020 to 2030. We analyzed the characteristics of LUCC and landscape pattern changes and, finally, evaluated the effect of rapid LUCC on LER. Of the six landscape types investigated, built-up land and farmland demonstrated the most significant changes. The area of built-up land increased by 1.5 times in 2010 and is predicted to increase by 2.7 times in 2030 than that in 1990. The area of farmland increased from 34.5% in 1990 to 24.5% in 2010 and is predicted to decrease to 15.1% in 2030. The number of patches (NP) of built-up land decreased with increasing area, which promoted the dominance of built-up land over other landscape types. Five landscape types, those other than built-up land, increased in NP, landscape fragmentation, segmentation, and disturbance but decreased in dominance. The LER of Xiamen in 2010 was slightly lower than that in 1990. However, with the acceleration of urbanization, the LER in 2020 and 2030 will increase by 7.6% and 12.5% than that in 2010. The LER will significantly increase in areas such as the Huandong sea area, the second urban core of Xiamen, and northern Xiang'an. For the areas, some measures (e.g. optimum urban spatial growth patterns and control of coastal reclamation) must inevitably increase to reduce the LER posed by rapid urbanization.     

北京城市发展新区土地利用景观格局分析

以北京南部城市发展新区典型代表———房山、大兴、通州3处作为研究区,运用马尔科夫转移矩阵和景观格局指数的方法,进行土地利用变化和景观格局分析。通过对2001—2006年、2006—2011年两个时段的对比分析,发现2001—2006年研究区存在草地、林地、耕地等非建设用地类型面积下降,建设用地面积上升的趋势,且2006—2011年该趋势更加明显。结果表明研究区自然景观向人文景观变革迅速,并面临着后备土地资源不足等问题,亟需调整土地利用方式并优化景观系统空间格局。     

Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting,based on a cellular automata model: A case study of Guangzhou,China

Forecasting changes in urban ecological security could be important for the maintenance or improvement of the urban ecological environment. However, there are few references in this field and no landmark research work has been reported, particularly quantitative research. A forecasting model for ecological security based on cellular automata (CA) was developed using preliminary spatial data from an ecological security assessment of Guangzhou conducted previously (1990–2005). The model was constrained using transformation rules based upon proposed planning for 2010–2020. A simulation accuracy of 72.09% was acquired. Using a one-bit assessment grid for 2005 as the starting state for the simulation, the model was used to forecast ecological security for 2020. This revealed that although the ecological security status would be improved relative to current trends, there would still be an overall decline in ecological security over the next 15 years. Even if new urban plans were implemented, landscape pattern analysis suggested a more scattered and homogenous distribution in the urban landscape of Guangzhou and significant variation in landscape characteristics among districts. This suggests that further measures must be adopted to reverse the current trends in Guangzhou's ecological security. The model highlights the need to make ecological protection an integral part of urban planning. This study demonstrates the potential of CA models for forecasting ecological security. Such models could make an important contribution to decision-making for regional governors and to the development of urban planning incorporating assessment and prediction of ecological security.     

广州东进扩张下的萝岗区土地利用与景观动态分析

以研究区1979年MSS1、990年LandsatTM、2000年LandsatETM以及2006年Aster 4个时段的卫星遥感影像为基础数据,运用RS与GIS技术手段,结合FRAGSTATS景观格局分析软件,对萝岗区近30年来的土地利用与景观格局变化进行了定量分析。研究表明：研究区未利用土地、园地及耕地面积大幅减少,林地与城镇用地面积显著增加。1979—2006年期间,2000年是一个分水岭,2000年前景观的连接度下降,破碎程度增加,景观斑块的形状趋于复杂化,景观结构组成的复杂性也趋于增加。2000年后各指数呈现了逆转的趋势,表明萝岗区为建设成为国际化生态型新城区,在后期的城市化进程中特别重视了生态环境的保护及建设。     

基于GIS技术及模糊物元分析法的南京市仙林新市区生态安全评价

运用压力-状态-响应模型和层次分析法构建生态安全评价指标体系,综合运用GIS技术及模糊物元分析方法对南京市仙林新市区建设前后(2003和2007年)的生态安全状况进行评价。结果表明,2003—2007年,仙林生态安全状况主要向2个方向发展,生态安全和不安全区域面积均有所增加,占区域总面积比例分别由9.6%和12.9%增加至22.3%和15.0%。由于各区域发展模式不同,生态安全状况区域差异明显。具体表现为仙鹤片区与白象片区生态安全区域面积明显增加,占研究区总面积比例分别由2.6%和3.9%增加至10.1%和9.3%;麒麟片区生态安全状况以临界安全为主,部分片区由临界安全状态向较安全状态转化;青龙片区生态安全状况变化不大。     

城市热力景观格局季节变化特征分析及其应用

热岛效应是城市发展过程中所产生的特有的环境问题,已经成为一种城市环境公害,对其形成和演变规律的研究有助于人们提出有效的应对措施。热力景观是分析城市热岛空间格局的一种新方法。以厦门为研究对象,利用2002年1、2、3、8、12月的Landsat ETM＋影像数据进行地表温度反演,在此基础上使用景观格局指数分析厦门城市热力景观格局的季节变化特征。结果表明：厦门城市热岛在夏季（8月）最强,春秋次之,冬季（1月）最弱。该变化特征是城市地表吸收太阳辐射和人为废热排放随季节变化的共同结果。应用该方法对2002年厦门热污染源进行调查,发现当年共有热污染源26个,其中工业热污染源18个。该研究可为环保、能源等部门乃至于整个城市的规划管理提供有力的决策依据。     

沱江流域生态安全预警及其生态调控对策

从沱江流域生态安全预警入手,基于压力-状态-响应(pressure status response,PSR)模型构建生态安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析、时间序列预测、模糊综合评判、主成分分析方法对流域2010、2015、2020年的生态安全状态进行评价与预警研究.结果表明:(1)沱江流域各区段在2010、2015、2020年3个时段内,整体上呈现全流域生态安全跃升的趋势,生态安全状态逐步好转;(2)纵观2010-2020年期间流域内各区段的生态安全变化,上游区段的生态安全状态明显好于中下游区段,其次为中游区段,下游区段的生态安全状态最为令人担忧.因此,沱江下游是流域内生态安全建设的重点;(3)沱江流域2010-2020年生态安全预警分为3类:安全区域、持续危险区域和退化区域.安全区域包括沱江上、中、下游的21个市县区;持续危险区域涵盖了中、下游的8个县区;退化区域为中游的2个县;(4)沱江流域生态安全预警的主要预警因子可以归纳为植被覆盖与农业灾害因子、人口素质因子、土地承载力因子、景观格局因子、面源污染因子、水土流失因子6大类.针对沱江流域生态安全预警因子的分析结果,提出以下生态调控对策:(1)积极修复植被,改善生态环境;(2)增强农业的防灾减灾能力;(3)加强技能培训,提高人口素质;(4)合理利用土地资源,提高土地承载力;(5)优化土地利用结构,加大景观多样性;(6)提倡生物防治,控制面源污染;(7)大力进行水土保持建设.     

Cultivated land – a scarce commodity in a densely populated rural area in South Wollo,Ethiopia

Cultivated and settlement areas were studied in a small area (14 km2) in South Wollo, Ethiopia, by aerial photos, satellite images, field observations and interviews. Areas for cultivation/rural settlement decreased a few per cent between 1958 and 2013. Cultivated land per household slowly decreased in 1958–2003 but in 2003–2013 the annual decrease was 3–4 times higher. New farm buildings are often built on cultivated land, and abandoned buildings areas return to cultivation. Rainwater harvesting ponds have increased the areas with perennial crops that are important as a source of income. Tin roofed buildings are signs of improved livelihood. Very small farm size and rain-dependent agriculture combined with climate variability make food security vulnerable. Land-use inventories including remote sensing and local knowledge would be a valuable approach to assess livelihood needs. Further, it should involve decision makers at different levels, but local agricultural extension officers may play a central role.     

武夷山风景名胜区景观要素斑块特征分析

针对近年来开展生态旅游等人类活动的强烈干扰给风景区带来巨大生态影响的问题，在武夷山风景名胜区景观类型划分的基础上，从景观要素斑块特征的角度对武夷山风景名胜区的景观格局及破碎化进行初步的研究，以期为今后武夷山风景名胜区的景观生态保护提供科学的依据．研究结果表明，在武夷山风景名胜区中，马尾松林、茶园与农田是风景区中3个主要景观类型，三者面积与周长之和分别占全区的84．581％和81．669％；景观要素的面积、周长、斑块数的分布极不平衡，尤其在3类主要景观类型中，在斑块面积、周长方面差异显著；各景观要素面积与周长的分布极为相似，而斑块数的分布却没有明显的规律性；景观要素面积、周长、斑块数等斑块特征分析表明，茶园、居住地、经济林等人工或半人工经营景观的破碎化程度高，而马尾松各天然林景观的破碎化程度低，从而证明了人类经营活动的干扰是导致自然风景区景观破碎的主要因素之一．表3参18     

1985-2010年南京市耕地变化轨迹及驱动力分析

随着经济的快速发展,城市化程度加剧,南京市的土地利用发生了巨大变化.基于1985-2010年覆盖南京市的Landsat MSS/TM卫星影像,利用最大似然法获取南京市历年土地利用数据,将其归纳为耕地和非耕地2类.基于分类结果,提取并归纳了恒定耕地、恒定非耕地、转变为耕地、转变为非耕地和短暂性耕地5种耕地类型的变化趋势,借助景观水平上的斑块占景观面积的比例以及散布与并列指数来分析5种耕地类型变化趋势的景观格局时空动态,以说明耕地扩张和遗弃的时空轨迹.结果表明：（1） 1985-2010年,耕地面积减少40.42％;（2）恒定耕地面积在方位3所占比例最大,为56.89％,转变为非耕地主要分布在方位1、6和8,揭示了城市扩张的主要方向;（3）恒定耕地类型主要分布于六合区,面积为895.92 km2,转变为非耕地主要分布于江宁区;（4）恒定非耕地集中于市中心附近,而恒定耕地则远离市中心分布;（5）恒定耕地仍占主导地位,转变为非耕地具有较高破碎度.短暂性耕地面积不稳定,较易发生土地撂荒乃至土地退化;（6）人口与产业重心转移、经济发展、政策和城市扩张是显著影响耕地空间格局的关键因素.     

广州市萝岗区生态系统服务功能价值空间评估

基于遥感与GIS,选取生产有机物质、涵养水源、净化环境污染、气体调节、营养物质循环、保土育肥6项生态系统服务功能主要指标,计算得到的各项量化的生态服务功能效益,通过影子工程法、市场价值法和机会成本法等转换成生态系统服务价值,在小空间格网上对广州市萝岗区生态系统服务功能价值进行了定量评估和空间分析。结果表明：萝岗区2007年生态系统服务价值达到16.13亿元,平均为37 175.81元/hm2。从空间分布看：萝岗区北部农林地区生态服务价值最高,中部、东部山区的服务价值较高,南部工业地区服务价值较低。不同的生态景观具有不同的生态服务功能,保持生态景观的多样性和均衡性能促进生态系统服务价值的增加。萝岗区生态城建设要保护该区原生的自然生态景观特征和景观格局,促进区域生态服务功能的全面提升和生态服务价值总体增加。     

河谷型城市城乡结合部景观格局空间尺度效应分析——以兰州市西固区土地利用格局为例

以兰州市西固区土地利用格局为例,利用2005年SPOT5遥感影像和正射航空影像数据,选取14个常用的景观指数,从景观水平和类型水平2个方面分析景观指数随尺度变化的基本规律,采用200m×200m正方形将研究区土地利用数据切分成规则格网,计算每个格网的多样性指数,通过半方差分析研究西固区多样性空间结构特征。结果表明:10m是西固区土地利用景观的本征观测尺度;研究区景观类型和景观格局特征随尺度增大变化显著,体现出一定的尺度依赖性;各乡(镇、街道)的景观指数呈现出城市中心—城乡交错带—乡村的分异特征,梯度变化明显;西固区多样性空间分布属于中等强度空间相关,高值区主要分布于黄河沿岸。     

Participatory assessment of soil degradation in the uplands of southwestern Tanzania: Implications for sustainable agriculture and rural livelihoods

Rural household food insecurity and poverty are closely linked to soil degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, causes, degradation processes, coping strategies and need for interventions may vary from one place to another. This study was conducted in Mbinga District, SW Tanzania, to investigate causes and biophysical processes of soil degradation; effects on livelihoods, coping strategies and entry points for interventions. Implications for sustainable production and rural livelihoods are discussed. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), household surveys using a short open-ended questionnaire and biophysical exploration were the research tools used. Soil fertility depletion resulting from continuous cropping and erosion losses is the main form of soil degradation. Maize yield was 57% lower in fertility-depleted farms than in productive farms. Soil pH, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and CEC accounted for 79% of variations in maize yield. Organic soil fertility amelioration was a common strategy used by smallholders. Use of beneficial tree and shrub fallows is the most environmentally, economically and socially promising improvement that can be used to build on the existing strengths of farmers' knowledge and strategies. Subsidy for the right type of fertilizers, infrastructure improvement and education of farmers on proper use of fertilizers should significantly contribute to improved and sustainable production and livelihoods.     

Analyses on phenological and morphological variations of mangrove forests along the southwest coast of Bangladesh

Drastic changes in river discharge and salinity levels are threatening the phenology and morphology of the coastal mangrove forests of the Sundarbans of Bangladesh. We have used AVHRR GIMMS (1985–2006) and MODIS (2005–2010) satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to identify the temporal variation of the phenology of the mangroves. Linear interpolation and Fourier-based adjustment were applied to remove noise from the NDVI time series. Then linear regression analysis on a single area (8 km ? 8 km) and a composite of 36 areas for three NDVI statistics the annual minimum, annual average, and annual maximum were performed--over the time periods 1985–1990, 1990–2000, 2000–2006 and 2005–2010 to identify possible functional changes in NDVI time series around the Sundarbans. Furthermore, we used fourteen LANDSAT images spanning the period 1989–2010 to estimate the spatiotemporal rate of shoreline changes over the three time periods 1989–2000, 2000–2006, and 2006–2010. A decreasing trend in the annual minimum NDVI was observed in most of the areas of the Sundarbans for the period 1990–2000. During the years 2000–2006, the trends of the three NDVI statistics became significantly positive, indicating an improvement of the mangrove phenology. In the period 2005–2010, a decreasing trend in all the NDVI variables was again dominant. The coast underwent rapid erosion from 1989–2000 and 2006–2010. However, the rate substantially declined between 2000 and 2006, when accretion was dominant. The advent of the upstream Farakka barrage caused a significant reduction in the Ganges-Gorai River discharge and increased the salinity in and around the Sundarbans. Our study concludes that this may be responsible for the degradation of mangrove phenology and accelerated erosion in the earlier and recent periods. In the interim, 2000–2006, improved river discharge and salinity levels due to the Ganges water sharing agreement (1996) and dredging of the Gorai River bed (1998–1999) enhanced the mangrove phenology and helped the coast to gain land.     

Factors affecting the distribution of trace elements in harbour sediments

A large number of data (n=488) were acquired from 2003 to 2006 for five Italian harbours and three control areas to determine trace element (Al, As, Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb, Hg, Cr, and Ni) levels in sediments. Results were utilised to evaluate, on a multivariate statistical basis, pollution levels, significant relationships between observed levels and specific factors, and enrichment factors. Of the factors tested, main human use of harbour, was best able to determine segregations in the observed trace element fingerprints. Compared with the concentration limit approach, the evaluation of enrichment factors, even if affected by mathematical approximations, represented a useful tool for environmental studies, allowing evaluation of the presence of sediments enriched by human activities and reducing the occurrence of both false positives and false negatives due to natural differences in aluminosilicate levels.     

Dynamics and driving forces of agricultural landscapes in Southern Ethiopia – a case study of the Chencha and Arbaminch areas

Agricultural landscapes in Ethiopia have undergone unprecedented changes. The direction of change, however, is unsustainable as manifested in land degradation, biodiversity loss, and low agricultural productivity. The objective of this study is to examine the patterns and trends of agricultural landscape development and responses of the local people within the framework of the dynamics of demography, socioeconomic conditions, politics, and natural resources in the Chencha and Arbaminch areas, Southern Ethiopia, during the last century. Information on cultivated and grazing land areas was acquired by satellite image interpretation. Interviews and group discussions provided important information on agricultural land use systems. A review and an analysis of secondary sources and documents of past studies were also used for trend analysis as a baseline and a supplement to oral history. The results show that cultivated land was expanded by 39% from 1973 until 2006, but per capita farming land holdings decreased enormously. In the same period of time, grassland shrank by 69% thus causing a significant decrease in livestock. Cultivated land scarcity can mostly be related to demographic pressure, which was exacerbated by government policy, land tenure, and the nature of subsistence agriculture. The farmers, however, were resourceful and developed skills over millennia to cope with the problems associated with population density and scarce resources. However, these traditional land use activities and land management practices have been deteriorating recently. Land use planners and environmental managers should take local knowledge and innovation into account in order to make sound decisions for the future.     

Ecological risk assessment based on road network development analysis of Xiamen city,China

Urban road network development (RND) plays an important role in social and economic evolution. However, the unlimited expansion of roads leads to great changes in urban landscape patterns, which further affect ecosystems. To better characterize the urban ecological risk (UER) of RND, in this study, RND was considered the stressor and habitat provision the assessment endpoint in a UER assessment. According to the theory of landscape ecology, habitat quality disturbance intensity (HQDI) is used to quantify the negative effect of RND on an urban ecosystem. In particular, we aimed to explore the exposure-response function between road density and HQDI under RND stress. A case study was carried out in Xiamen City to examine this association. In terms of spatial distribution, this study showed that developed areas had the highest HQDI values, whereas low HQDI values were mostly associated with suburban areas. In addition, the probability distribution of HQDIs was uneven and the urban ecosystem showed unequal sensitivities to different types of roads. Based on a multilevel characterization of UER, results of this provide a framework to predict UER under RND stress and may enhance the ability of risk managers to develop scientifically based control measures.     

Performance analysis of WRF and LES in describing the evolution and structure of the planetary boundary layer

We implemented the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and WRF Large-Eddy Simulation (WRF–LES), focusing on calculations for the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and compared the results against a data set of a well-documented campaign, in the Houston–Galveston area, Texas, in summer 2006. A methodology using WRF in a mesoscale and LES was implemented to assess the performance of the model in simulating the evolution and structure of the PBL over Houston during the Vertical Mixing Experiment. Also, the WRF model in a real case mode was examined to explore potential differences between the results of each simulation approach. We analyzed both WRF results for key meteorological parameters like wind speed, wind direction and potential temperature, and compared the model results against the observations. The reasonably good agreement of LES results forced with observed surface fluxes provides confidence that LES describes turbulence quantities such as turbulent kinetic energy correctly and warrants further turbulence structure analysis. The LES results indicate a weak but noticeable nighttime turbulent kinetic energy which was produced by wind shear in Houston’s planetary boundary layer and which may likely be related to intermittent turbulence. This is supported by observations made at the University of Houston Moody Tower air quality station when intermittent peaks of carbon monoxide occurred in the evening, although the variability in wind conditions was very little.     

Evaluation of ecosystem health for regional development in the southwestern Beijing, China

Ecosystem health assessment is one of the most important issues in regional ecological quality and safety studies. It also has a great significance to ecological conservation and regional development. This study focused on assessing the health status of forest, agriculture and urban ecosystems in the southwestern Beijing, China, including the Fangshan and Fengtai Districts. Based on field surveys and data collection, an assessment index system containing the vigor, organization and resilience factors was developed to measure the ecosystem health. Each index was scored from 1 to 5, representing five levels that contribute to the whole ecosystem health. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to measure the weights of each index and three factors, and thus an overall score for a certain ecosystem was calculated. The results show that the forest ecosystem in the Fangshan District had higher health value than the Fengtai District, while the urban ecosystem had a slightly lower value in the Fangshan District than the Fengtai District. Both districts show lower resilience values in forest and urban ecosystems. Maintaining the ecosystem health will definitely benefit the long-term development of two districts. This study suggested that an approach for assessing the regional ecosystem health could be further developed to address spatial and synergy relationships between ecosystems and the three health factors.     

Integrated ecological assessment as the basis for management of a coastal urban protected area: A case study of Xiamen,China

In the process of rapid urbanisation in China, environmental problems have increased, from sewage discharge to climate change. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely advocated as a means to comprehensively manage human activities and resources in ocean and coastal areas. However, MPAs only safeguard populations or assemblages within their boundaries and fail to offer any protection from many major threats to marine environments. An increase in environmental threats implies an increase in environmental management and assessment. We propose a methodological framework for integrated ecological assessment using the Xiamen marine protected area as a case study. The integrated ecological assessment framework can be generalised from the dimensions of environment, economy, society and institution. Surveys were undertaken to assess the state of the Xiamen coastal environment, the resources of the reserve, and issues associated with human activities. Stakeholders were interviewed about their attitudes towards issues regarding the management of the reserve. The constraints of the reserve management were identified. The methodological framework is presented as a tool to help identify relative ecological security in order to prioritise actions and assess the ecological implications of management and policy decisions.